Would Kamala Harris have been worse off if Biden resigned? ... Why is Matt losing conservative friends? ... Should politicians fact check constituent stories? ...
Would a different US president have made a difference for Gaza? ... Saudi-Israel normalization takes a step back ... Is all hope lost for a two-state solution? ... Making sense of Israel’s pager attacks in Lebanon ... Heading to Overtime—an
Why didn’t OpenAI call its new o1 AI GPT? ... Tim’s first impressions of o1 ... What’s the secret to o1’s better reasoning? ... Inspecting AI introspection ... Does o1’s capability for deception bring us closer to doom? ... AI doomers’ Hol
What Kamala got right ... What Trump got wrong ... Why undecided voters are the worst ... Why probabilistic forecasts are stupid ... Do the Swift and Cheney endorsements matter? ...
Tragedy strikes the Wright household ... Breaking down the big Trump-Kamala debate ... Are debates actually valuable? ... Kamala’s worst debate moment (according to Bob) ... Elon vs Taylor Swift, Brazil, and himself ... Bob and Paul argue
Is Ukraine’s Kursk invasion failing? ... Why Russia may outlast the West in Ukraine ... Zelensky’s cabinet shakeup ... Prospects for a peace deal ... Russian elites’ views on the war ... How the Global South can help end the conflict ...
Is Biden-Harris foreign policy neoconservative or Reagan conservative? ... How much are Trump and Biden alike on foreign policy? ... Matt warns up to Walz ... How should Harris approach next week's debate? ...
What's wrong with Walz joining Harris for her first interview? ... Should Harris have gone local for her first interview? ... Why is Trump embracing RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard? ...
Steve’s books, The Hell of Good Intentions and The Israel Lobby ... How Israel helped spawn Hezbollah ... Why US leaders abet Israel’s self-destructive behavior ... Netanyahu’s longstanding opposition to a Palestinian state ... The Israeli
Bob and Paul’s time-warping podcast experiment ... Does thinking in bets better your thinking? ... Past prediction 1: Will the presidential race tighten up? ... J.D. Vance memes of yester-month ... Past prediction 2: Who will Kamala pick fo
Emma’s forthcoming book on US grand strategy ... Gaza, Ukraine, and Mearsheimer’s realism ... The DC establishment’s dark view of world affairs ... How the Gaza war hurts American interests—and America itself ... Is the time ripe for realis
Are too many former Democratic presidents speaking at the convention? ... Does Kamala Harris need to win the national popular vote by a lot to win the Electoral College? ... Does Tim Walz need a better response to attacks on his military serv
Nathan's podcast, The Cognitive Revolution ... The enduring enigmas of AI ... Conceptualizing how LLMs conceptualize ... Do AIs actually understand things? ... Why AI doesn’t need to be superhuman to be revolutionary ... Human vs AI repres
Peter’s background and (Root)claim to fame ... How Peter caught the Covid origins bug ... The Wuhan wet market: source or amplifier? ... Holes in the lab leak theory ... The patient zero problem ... A statistical deep dive into the wet ma
Matt argues Harris should have picked Shapiro ... Bill argues Walz has swing appeal ... Is the "couch" joke below the belt? ... How is Trump going after Walz? ... Will there be debates? ...
Who was Haniyeh—and why’d Israel kill him? ... Why Netanyahu may want a US-Iran war ... Are pro-Israel groups at peak power? ... Israel’s escalating conflict with Hezbollah ... The logic of Iranian retaliation ... Israel’s lack of a viable
How did Kamala Harris consolidate the Democratic Party so quickly? ... Is Harris authentic or a phony? ... Who will (and should) be Harris' VP? ... What is Trump thinking by attacking Harris' racial identity? ... What did Trump mean by say
Nick’s influential book Superintelligence and his new book Deep Utopia ... Has Nick flipped on AI doom? ... Life in the “solved world” of an AI utopia ... Can technology address the deepest problems of human nature? ... Meaning, artificial
Dmitri’s new book, World on the Brink ... Is America’s behavior more destabilizing than China’s? ... China-Taiwan compared to Russia-Ukraine ... Is the US making a Chinese invasion of Taiwan more likely? ... Should the US try to maintai
The Nonzero-American Prestige all-star team ... Why didn’t the Trump shooting matter more? ... What anti-Trump historians get wrong ... Why Kamala shouldn't demonize Trump ... Heading to Overtime—and a discount deal ...
Who’s most to blame for the Biden mess? ... Why Trump might duck a debate with Kamala ... Is Biden locked in the basement? ... Kamala’s biggest liabilities ... Loyalty, the Mob, and Biden’s psychology ... Conspiracy theories of the Trump