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2:00

and watching Robert of Kennedy Jr's little

2:02

weird video that he put out himself

2:04

where he's telling Roseanne Barr about throwing

2:06

a dead baby bear in his car

2:08

for some reason. As a

2:11

New Yorker too, like the idea

2:13

that it was just a normal thing to do

2:15

after a steak dinner, peer lures, I

2:17

mean, let's just actually, can we spend a minute

2:19

on this? Let's start at the beginning. He was

2:21

going falconing. This is like what precipitates the whole

2:23

story. He's going falconing and he sees a dead

2:26

bear cub on the side of the road. So

2:28

he pulls over to get it. And

2:31

here's what I was struck by the logistics too,

2:33

Tommy, because he gets it. He has all these

2:35

reasons why, he's kind of litigious reasons why it's

2:37

okay to like eat bear and keep

2:40

it chopped up in your fridge as if that's like a normal thing

2:42

to do. But then he goes

2:45

to Peter Lugers, right? Great steak house.

2:47

Super fancy, famous iconic steak place. Yeah,

2:49

get the bacon appetizer, it's great. Peter

2:52

Lugers is in Brooklyn, okay? Then

2:55

he says he has a flight to catch, which

2:57

is presumably like Kennedy airport, which

2:59

is in Queens. But

3:02

he on the way to the airport is going to take

3:04

a massive detour into Central Park with a bunch of drunk

3:06

guys. And happens to have a- But

3:08

he wasn't drinking. But he wasn't drinking. Happens to

3:11

have a bicycle that he's going to get rid of with

3:13

the bear. Why did he have a bike in his car?

3:15

How big is this car that you have a bike and

3:17

a dead bear in the car at the same time? What

3:20

are you talking about, dude? And then just

3:22

like staging a, first of all,

3:25

you can't drive into Central Park. I don't know

3:27

when this happened. I mean, cause they banned cars

3:29

in Central Park. So did he get out

3:31

of the car and walk the bear carcass and the bike into

3:33

the park? Or what the hell is going on here? I

3:36

just- Put on the front on the little basket

3:38

or something? Yeah, I couldn't possibly have more questions

3:40

about this. I really couldn't.

3:42

And then former guest

3:44

on Crooked Media podcast,

3:47

Tatiana Shoshberg, wonderful

3:49

reporter, John F.

3:51

Kennedy's granddaughter, wrote the article for the New

3:53

York Times about the dead bear. To

3:56

me, that was like the kicker, the thing that just

3:58

tipped it over the top. And

4:01

he's doing the thing that politicians always think

4:03

they can do when a bad story is

4:05

coming, which is that you front run it.

4:07

You try to get the fact out ahead

4:09

of whoever did all the hard work to

4:11

report out this anecdote. So he films a

4:13

video of himself telling this anecdote to, presumably,

4:16

the most batshit crazy person he could find,

4:18

who was Roseanne Barr, and even her face

4:20

in the reaction shots is like, what are

4:22

you talking about, pal? You have lost

4:24

the thread even for me. It's incredible. And she just happened

4:26

to be in his kitchen. That's a

4:29

weird thing. Is Roseanne Barr in the guesthouse,

4:31

like Kate O'Caylin? Like, what's going on here?

4:34

I'm reading Jeffrey Toobin's book

4:37

about the OJ Simpson trial right now, which

4:39

is many years old, but is incredible. And

4:41

I'd forgotten all about Kate O'Caylin. What a

4:43

character. Yeah, one of the better OJ characters.

4:47

Since I'm on a version of Zoom, I'm

4:49

not going to make a Jeffrey Toobin joke, though. Oh, boy.

4:51

Yeah, we'll let that one pass. Stay

4:54

there. Anyway, glad we glapped through

4:56

that because I just, you know, what

4:59

a story. But back to the show,

5:01

we're going to talk about a lot of big

5:03

news. So there's this major military operation by the

5:05

Ukrainian forces into Russia. And that's still going on

5:07

right now. We've got this

5:09

ongoing concern that Iran and Hezbollah are

5:11

preparing to retaliate against Israel and launch

5:14

some major strike. We'll talk about the

5:16

latest on the ongoing nightmare that is

5:18

life in Gaza, an effort to broker

5:20

a ceasefire. We'll talk about how

5:23

activists are trying to change course now that

5:25

Joe Biden is not running for reelection. It

5:27

influenced Kamala Harris's policy and, you know, things

5:30

that things people are doing at her events

5:33

to try to put more pressure on the

5:35

administration to change course on Gaza. And

5:38

then we're also going to cover the reports

5:40

that Iran hacked the Trump campaign, the latest

5:42

from Venezuela a couple of weeks after the

5:44

election, an ISIS plot against Taylor Swift and

5:47

the most offensive thing to happen to Pompeii since

5:49

that song by Bastille. So we got a big

5:51

show. Yeah, that's exciting. Just kidding. I don't dislike

5:54

Bastille. They're fine. Then Ben, you did the interview

5:56

today. What do we got? Yeah,

5:58

so this is the third anniversary. the collapse

6:00

of Kabul. And so I

6:02

think it was important to kind of circle back to that. And

6:05

we have Sahar Halamzayan, who's been

6:07

on this podcast before. She

6:09

works for the Malala Fund now, which

6:12

is doing a lot of work to support women

6:14

and girls in Afghanistan. So we talked about how

6:16

life has changed, obviously, for the worst, really

6:19

the horrific conditions, kind of hopelessness,

6:21

that women and girls have in Afghanistan, but

6:24

also their incredible bravery and continuing to protest

6:26

for their rights. Malala has

6:28

taken the lead in advancing the

6:30

idea of gender apartheid, essentially,

6:33

that the Taliban system of

6:35

denying women access to really anything in Afghanistan

6:37

is a tantamount to apartheid and trying to

6:39

get that codified under international law as a

6:41

crime against humanity. It is an interesting idea.

6:44

Yeah. So she kind of walks us through

6:46

that. Obviously, it's apartheid, right? I mean, clearly,

6:48

yeah. There's a common sense to it, that

6:50

essentially, if you're a woman in Afghanistan, it's

6:52

just like if you were a black person

6:54

in South Africa, it's a totally separate set

6:56

of laws. And so it's

6:58

an innovative way to try

7:00

to get new tools to hold the Taliban

7:02

accountable, to ensure that countries, including the US,

7:05

have women included in their engagements

7:08

with Afghanistan. So it's definitely worth

7:10

checking out. It's a powerful

7:12

interview at a sad

7:14

anniversary. Yeah, absolutely. And

7:17

Sahar is an incredibly compelling person,

7:19

and he's done a lot of

7:21

great work. So worth checking out.

7:23

Okay, Ben, so let's start with

7:25

this big development from Ukraine. So

7:28

the top military commander in Ukraine says

7:30

that his forces now control 386 square

7:32

miles of Russian

7:34

territory in the Kursk region of

7:36

Russia for international listeners. That's a

7:38

thousand square kilometers. Nice little conversion

7:41

chart there. So this is

7:43

an area right on the border between Russia

7:45

and Ukraine. The Russian governor of the Kursk

7:47

region says that over 120,000 civilians

7:50

have had to flee, and

7:52

60,000 more are waiting to get evacuated. Russians

7:54

are also being evacuated from the

7:56

neighboring Belgorod region. So this was

7:58

a... surprise operation launched

8:01

by Ukraine last week. According

8:03

to Bloomberg News, it was kept secret from even

8:05

the rank and file soldiers until the day before.

8:07

So these guys were just kind of amassing in

8:10

the woods, not knowing where they're gonna go next.

8:13

The Ukrainian military clearly found

8:15

an exploited border

8:18

crossing that was thinly guarded. They

8:20

seem to have surprised the Russians, or

8:22

at least the Russian military was very

8:25

slow to respond to whatever they saw.

8:27

I would imagine, Ben, that Putin is

8:29

furious about this humiliating operation, but analysts

8:32

at the Institute of War say the

8:34

Kremlin seemed to be trying to downplay

8:36

it to avoid panic or backlash. That

8:38

said, I've seen some reports that Russians

8:40

in Moscow have rallied to support people

8:43

who were evacuated from curse.

8:45

So there is a scenario where Putin could

8:47

use this to his advantage and rally more

8:49

broad support for the war, but time will

8:51

tell. In a televised meeting with security officials,

8:53

Putin said, quote, "'The West is fighting us

8:55

with the hands of the Ukrainians.'" He

8:58

also said, unironically, quote, "'But what negotiations

9:00

can there be with people "'who indiscriminately

9:03

attack civilians "'and civilian infrastructure "'or try

9:05

to threaten nuclear energy facilities?'" The White

9:07

House National Security spokesman, John Kirby, was

9:10

asked about this operation during a press

9:12

briefing. Here's a clip. The only people

9:14

at war in Ukraine are the Russians.

9:17

They're the ones that invaded Ukraine, and

9:19

Ukraine is defending itself against that aggression.

9:22

This is Russia's war of aggression against

9:24

Ukraine, pure and simple, always has been

9:27

since the beginning. I'm not gonna talk

9:29

about Ukrainian military operations, as I

9:31

said earlier. I'll let them speak to what

9:33

they're doing. We're in close touch with them,

9:35

as you might expect we would be, and

9:37

that will continue those conversations. But

9:40

make no mistake about it. This

9:42

is Putin's war against Russia. And

9:45

if he doesn't like it, if it's making

9:47

him a little uncomfortable, then there's an easy solution. He

9:49

can just get the hell out of Ukraine and call

9:51

it a day. Leave it at that. A

9:54

little NSC shade there from Kirby. So,

9:56

then, like, we just, everyone should know,

9:58

like, We don't have a ton of

10:00

information about what's happening in Russia right

10:02

now. The most experienced analysts don't either.

10:04

Things are moving quickly. No

10:06

one besides a small circle of Ukrainian officials

10:08

probably seem to know what Ukraine is going

10:10

to do next if they're going to try

10:12

to expand the territory they've taken, if they'll

10:14

retreat. We don't know. But

10:17

I am 100% confident that what

10:19

will happen now is this operation

10:21

will become a key part

10:23

of the argument you've been hearing from

10:25

Ukrainian officials for a very long time,

10:27

which is that Biden needs to take

10:29

the shackles off and let Ukraine hit

10:31

targets in Russia with US weapons. Do

10:34

you think that this operation makes that

10:36

argument more compelling? Yeah, I

10:38

think there are a few things going on here.

10:40

And it's the Ukrainians trying to kind of create

10:42

a new normal for their

10:45

military operations and for the weapons that they're using. First

10:48

of all, we've talked about a lot over the last year

10:50

that Ukraine is kind of not losing,

10:53

but incrementally losing ground

10:56

on the front line. Russia just

10:58

has more people, more artillery, more small

11:00

arms to kind of throw at the

11:02

front line in eastern Ukraine. Russia

11:05

had actually been making some gains in

11:07

the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. morale

11:09

was down in Ukraine. They're

11:12

stretched thin. And so I think they're doing a

11:14

few things here. We've talked about

11:16

how already we'd seen them take some

11:18

shots into Russia, take some shots into

11:20

Crimea, take some shots at the Russian

11:22

fleet in the Black Sea. That's

11:24

where they can go on offense. We learned

11:26

in their counter offensive last year that they

11:28

don't really have the sufficient manpower and weaponry

11:31

to kind of break through the Russian front

11:33

lines that are kind of fortified and almost

11:35

like trench warfare style. Where they can make

11:37

some gains is if they do something that's

11:39

a surprise and that strikes the Russians where

11:41

they're not expecting it. That's the

11:43

first thing that's happening. I think the other

11:45

thing that's happening is the Ukrainians were getting

11:47

very frustrated about the fact that because they

11:50

couldn't strike into Russia, essentially the Russians you

11:52

know, treated the Ukrainians like sitting ducks. They

11:54

had all this stuff across the border. They're

11:56

firing at the Ukrainians. Well this is obviously

11:58

pushing the front line back. Well, in Russia.

12:00

Big time. The other thing is, I

12:03

think there's a lot of talk about

12:05

getting into a negotiation and even the

12:08

Ukrainians themselves appear to be more

12:10

open to negotiating with the Russians with

12:13

the kind of understanding that they're probably not going

12:15

to reclaim all their territory. Well, you might want

12:17

to go into that negotiation with a big chunk

12:19

of Russian territory as well. That

12:22

depends on holding it though. And so the capacity of

12:24

the Ukrainians to actually hold on to a piece of

12:26

Russia is something that we just don't know yet. I

12:29

will say that this is not a small deal. Like

12:31

Russia has not been invaded since World War II.

12:34

Okay. That's a long time.

12:37

Putin's whole rationale for this war is about making

12:39

its borders more secure. And so this is the

12:42

Ukrainians sending a message that actually the Russian

12:44

borders are less secure. It's

12:46

a blow to the prestige of the Russian state

12:48

that's supposed to be able to protect the Russian

12:50

people in exchange for all the horrible autocracy

12:53

that they have to put up with. Right.

12:56

So it's a big roll of the dice. A big

12:58

gamble. People don't quite know how it's going to play

13:00

out. But I mean, look, Tommy,

13:02

if Mexico invaded Texas and

13:04

took a huge several

13:07

hundred mile piece of territory, that would

13:09

be something. You can't just kind of say, oh,

13:11

it's no big deal. Yeah.

13:13

I think your spin cycle is done. That

13:16

would be a very big deal. To your point about

13:18

whether Ukraine will hold this territory. The

13:20

hard part would be resupplying these troops who are

13:22

miles and miles into Russia. Now, I mean, look,

13:24

it's a big deal to move tens of miles

13:27

into Russia. Russia is also 5600 miles wide. So

13:30

you know, you have a long way to go before

13:33

you're really threatening Putin. But you know, it's very

13:35

impressive. Also this just kind of got me reading

13:37

then because I don't know that we've talked sort

13:39

of big picture about the war in a while

13:41

or at least sort of this manpower question. Bloomberg

13:44

News had a great report on comparing the manpower

13:46

at this point of both armies. So Ukraine has

13:49

about 900,000 troops while Russia has 1.15 million but

13:51

are trying to ramp

13:54

up to 1.5 million. Bloomberg

13:57

reported that their recruitment efforts.

14:00

are really struggling at this point. I guess in

14:02

Moscow you can get financial bonuses if

14:05

you're a new recruit that basically gets nets

14:07

out to you making three times the average

14:09

salary in Moscow last year. So they're offering,

14:11

they're just like throwing money at people who

14:13

will sign up for this war, but they're

14:16

still not hitting these quotas. So there's a

14:18

question about whether there might be another draft

14:21

and you know what the reason that's necessary obviously

14:23

is this war could go on for the long

14:25

term, but also the Russians have sustained up to

14:28

500,000 casualties in

14:30

the last three months have been the worst period of

14:32

Russian casualties in the entire war. I think there's as

14:34

high as 1200 per day happening.

14:37

So it was just sort of an interesting

14:39

snapshot into the broader state

14:41

of the war, but also why

14:43

these surprise operations are so important

14:45

because if the Russians decide they

14:48

really need to repel these Ukrainian

14:50

forces quickly, they're going to have to pull a bunch

14:52

of troops off the lines from other parts of

14:55

the front and that could change the calculus

14:57

in other areas. So it's just this like

14:59

ongoing chess game that's happening. Yeah.

15:01

You know, the whole thing is makes

15:04

you think about what position

15:06

is Russia in, you know, it seemed

15:08

like they had this kind of slight upper hand,

15:11

but as is often the case

15:13

with Putin, there can be like some premature triumphalism.

15:15

So there's a couple ways of looking at it.

15:17

One that is kind of negative for Russia and one

15:19

that is more advantageous Russia. Like on

15:21

the negative side, look, we

15:23

had Progosion like marching on Moscow member

15:25

about a year ago. This is the

15:27

second time in the last, you know,

15:30

three years that like a

15:32

basically an invading army has moved into

15:34

Russian territory and taken it. That

15:37

there's just no good way to spin

15:39

that. You combine that with the

15:41

kind of desperation for manpower. It's not as if

15:43

Putin is kind of growing 10, 15, 20 feet

15:45

tall through this war. This

15:48

war is bad for him. It's bad for Russia. Right.

15:51

And this is clearly not

15:53

what he wants. The video people should check

15:55

out of Putin hosting a National

15:57

Security Council meeting. We're getting briefed on this

15:59

is. It's so good because he just looks

16:01

like he's seething, sitting there getting these

16:04

reports. And you see the

16:06

one where the governor of the Kursk region

16:08

governor was like, he's just talking about how

16:10

much territory has been taken over by these

16:12

Ukrainian forces. And he's like, ah, leave those

16:14

numbers in the military. Just shuts this guy

16:16

down. Yeah, yeah. Stating facts. He's just like,

16:19

hey, local official, you know. Shut the fuck

16:21

up. On the other hand, Russia is big.

16:25

They do have manpower. They do have weapons.

16:28

Invasions of Russia traditionally have

16:30

not ended well. You can ask

16:32

the Germans and the French about that. And

16:35

so you can get triumphalists on

16:38

the Ukrainian side. I think what it

16:40

highlights is that this war is

16:42

just bad for everybody. And it's obviously

16:44

Putin's fault. He's the guy who initiated

16:46

it. But I think the

16:48

Ukrainians, it just shows that we're entering a

16:50

phase where between now and wherever negotiation happens. And

16:52

we're going to have to wait till our election

16:54

to figure out how that begins because

16:57

everybody's waiting to see if it's Trump or Harris. The

17:00

Ukrainians, they just also got their first delivery

17:02

of F-16s. They've

17:04

made their first big play into Russia. You

17:07

could just start to see, to your

17:09

original question, them pushing

17:11

the boundaries of this escalation risk.

17:13

The Americans have been concerned. The

17:15

Biden administration has been concerned about

17:18

what could tip into an escalation

17:20

that causes Russia to lash

17:22

out, or God forbid, Putin

17:24

threatens to use nuclear weapons. I just

17:26

think we're going to be living with a fairly

17:29

precarious escalation risk. I will say, though, the

17:31

Ukrainians invaded Russia. And Putin's not

17:34

really doing much different in response. They

17:36

keep proving that they can push a

17:38

little further. Now, the question is,

17:40

how far can they push before Putin decides

17:42

to do something that is more catastrophic than

17:44

what he's already done? Nobody

17:46

knows that except Putin. Yeah, and so

17:48

far the response seems to be being bombing random

17:51

villages, typical. But his

17:53

go to. Speaking of wars that

17:55

are bad for everybody, let's turn

17:58

to Israel and Iran. Israel

18:00

and US intelligence agencies are

18:02

reportedly convinced that Iran is

18:04

making military preparations for a

18:06

large-scale attack on Israel in

18:08

retaliation for Israel's assassination of

18:10

a Hamas leader named Ismail

18:13

Hania on Iranian soil. Ben,

18:15

I did not get to listen to

18:18

last week's episode because I spent almost

18:20

literally every waking moment working or parenting

18:22

on my vacation, so that was stupid

18:24

of me. But every

18:27

time I read about one of

18:29

these daring Mossad operations deep

18:31

into some enemy territory,

18:33

I think to myself, why don't

18:35

you guys just do that and

18:37

systematically take out Hamas's leadership that

18:39

way rather than continue this catastrophic

18:41

war in Gaza? You

18:44

mean you don't need

18:46

to drop five 2,000-pound bombs to

18:49

kill a single Hamas operative in

18:51

Gaza? Is that what you're suggesting?

18:53

Yeah, I'm saying it seems like the Mossad can

18:56

kill anyone anywhere at any time, and I just

18:58

sort of wonder why they don't do that. But

19:01

that's more of an aside than a question. Yeah,

19:03

well, I mean, it does beg the question of

19:05

why you need to destroy

19:07

basically all of Gaza. I

19:09

mean, to put a fine point on it, there

19:11

was this bombing of a school last week, which is

19:15

horrific, killed 100 Palestinians, a lot of women

19:17

and children. And the Israeli government's

19:20

defense was, well, there was

19:22

something like, I don't know, 12 or

19:24

15 Hamas operatives were at the school. Putting

19:28

aside that you can't even necessarily

19:30

verify that, and sometimes those claims have

19:32

not borne out, one,

19:35

that's still not legal under international law.

19:37

You can't just kill dozens

19:40

of women and children to kill a few

19:42

operatives. And you can say Hamas is human

19:45

shields. That doesn't mean that you can just

19:47

obliterate all those innocent civilians

19:49

as well. But

19:51

it, yeah, it begs your question, Tommy, of like, it

19:54

seems like there could have been a

19:56

plan to take out SINWR with

19:58

the kind of... remote detonated

20:00

device that they seem to have used

20:02

against Ismail Haniyeh and Iran

20:06

that's clearly not the path that they've

20:08

taken. Yeah. Anyway,

20:10

but back to the sort of concerns

20:12

about this Iranian retaliation so the the

20:14

worst case scenario that you know,

20:16

the US and Israel seem to be preparing for would

20:18

be a multi-part coordinated

20:20

operation that includes strikes from Hezbollah

20:23

on maybe the Houthis from Yemen

20:25

and then Iran directly We

20:27

don't know yet though. The Washington Post reported

20:29

that Israel is considering a preemptive strike against

20:32

Hezbollah But you know again, they've been hitting

20:34

Hezbollah targets for months So I don't really

20:36

know what that means on

20:38

the diplomatic front You've got the US

20:40

UK France in Germany and Italy putting

20:42

out statements calling for Iran to show

20:45

restraint The US has been

20:47

just sending tons of military assets

20:49

to the region There

20:51

was a they sent a guided missile

20:53

submarine She's also very notable that the

20:56

Pentagon announced that subs deployment that doesn't

20:58

ever happen They sent a

21:00

bunch of Navy destroyers An aircraft

21:02

carrier is going to the Gulf of Oman

21:04

so like very very serious, you know military

21:07

hardware US military hardware is

21:09

heading to the region just in case

21:11

the new Iranian president Masoud Pazeshkian has

21:13

rejected calls to stand down Calling

21:16

retaliation a way to stop

21:18

crime in Iran's legal rights

21:20

So he's clearly pretty dug in and this

21:22

would be his first major decision as president

21:25

So I imagine the politics for him or

21:27

fraught then, you know the last time Iran

21:29

launched a major attack on Israel This

21:32

extraordinary coordinated effort by the US the

21:34

UK a bunch of regional allies Basically

21:37

prevented any real damage from happening

21:39

in Israel and Biden then was

21:41

able to tell Netanyahu Stand

21:43

down like take the win do not escalate

21:46

further I guess the question now is

21:48

like what are the odds that the world gets

21:50

that lucky a second time? My guess is pretty

21:52

low yeah, this is not

21:54

like a game of Russian roulette that you want

21:56

to keep playing and Look,

21:59

there's there's multiple dimensions to this. I mean, the

22:01

first thing I'd say is that I

22:04

don't think the Iranian president, obviously won't be

22:06

the final decision maker, the supreme leader will

22:08

be, but the assassination did

22:10

take place right after the inauguration of this

22:13

guy, which

22:15

is its own timing decision. I mean,

22:17

obviously, probably the main timing determinant for

22:20

the Israelis was that Haniyeh was in

22:22

Iran for this inauguration. But this

22:24

was someone who was elected literally wanting to

22:26

be more moderate, wanting to turn the page

22:29

to some more engagement with the US. That's

22:31

pretty much derailed by- Yeah, good way to

22:33

prevent that from happening. Good way to prevent

22:36

that from happening. I'm not suggesting that was

22:38

the only motivation here, but it's definitely an

22:40

ancillary benefit for Bibi Netanyahu if he doesn't

22:42

want to see the US and Iran engaged

22:44

in any kind of dialogue. That's one thing.

22:47

Then in terms of what the response could

22:49

be, I mean, honestly, the Iranians, I know

22:51

why they do it, but coming out and

22:53

announcing that you're going to strike puts

22:57

you out on a limb where you feel like you

22:59

have to do something. There's a lot of different things

23:01

they could do. They could launch a bunch of things

23:03

at Israel that could be shot down again like they

23:05

did last time. I think

23:07

that they'd probably lose face if they did

23:09

that. I would

23:11

prefer they did nothing. Obviously, I'd prefer that none of

23:13

this war was going on. So let's just say that.

23:16

You're right that then there's the kind

23:18

of response where they could be waves

23:20

of attacks from Iran, Hezbollah,

23:24

and Lebanon, the Houthis in

23:26

Yemen who clearly would want to be part

23:28

of any action, other Iranian proxies across the

23:31

region. I think one of the reasons why

23:33

there's all that US military moving to the

23:35

region is they could attack our people in

23:37

places like Iraq. That's been happening again. Yeah.

23:39

I mean, a bunch of US troops were

23:41

hurt in a drone strike, I

23:43

think over the weekend in Syria. Yeah. So that's

23:45

another thing that could happen. Now, another way that

23:47

the Iranians could do this is they could not

23:50

announce something, not launch missiles, but like a

23:52

terrorist attack inside of Israel or something. In

23:54

the past, that's sometimes

23:56

how they responded to these things is a few weeks

23:59

go by and then and all of a sudden there's

24:01

an attack, like a

24:03

more conventional, well, not that it's

24:05

conventional, but a terrorist attack. We'll

24:08

see if they take that road, but anything

24:10

they do, you know, continues this

24:12

cycle of escalation, the Israelis do something in return. The

24:15

thing about preempting Hezbollah that was worrying is that

24:18

there are some people in the Israeli government, including those

24:20

far right ministers and some

24:22

of the security types that have

24:24

talked about invading Southern Lebanon and trying

24:26

to create a buffer in Southern Lebanon

24:29

so that people in Israel can move

24:31

back to Northern Israel. Now

24:33

that has some bad echoes of the 80s

24:36

if people want to look that up. Israeli

24:38

invasions of Lebanon are usually not quick or

24:40

simple or disastrous, right? And

24:44

what surely prompt Hezbollah

24:46

to respond in kind and further escalate

24:48

the war in Lebanon.

24:51

So basically none of this is good.

24:54

I will say too, Tommy, that like on both,

24:56

and we could talk about the ceasefire here, but

25:00

like the US wants a ceasefire and they don't want escalation, but

25:02

we continue to give totally

25:05

unconditional military assistance to Israel. I

25:07

think just authorize another $20 billion

25:10

in arms sales, waived

25:12

any concerns about human rights abuses

25:14

by certain Israeli units that

25:17

would have been consistent with enforcing US law,

25:19

move all this military hardware to the region.

25:21

So if you're being in Yau, you know,

25:23

you may read, you know, in Axios

25:26

background quotes that, you know, Joe Biden's

25:28

really pissed at Bibi Nanyau, but what

25:30

you see is completely

25:32

unfettered military equipment coming your

25:35

way, giant, you

25:37

know, Armada of US military vessels

25:39

coming to the region. You

25:42

know, this doesn't feel like exerting leverage for

25:44

de-escalation. It feels like inserting

25:46

leverage to give Bibi blank check. Yeah,

25:49

I mean, if you're at the bar by

25:51

yourself and get into an altercation, you're probably

25:53

a lot less likely to keep fighting than

25:55

if you have a 6'8 NFL offensive lineman

25:57

behind you who keeps handing you guns. I

26:00

mean, that's sort of what's happening here. By

26:02

the way, three senior Iranian officials told Reuters

26:04

that they will only hold off on retaliating

26:07

against Israel if Israel and Hamas agree to

26:09

a ceasefire deal, which I imagine some people

26:11

read that and they feel cynical about it.

26:13

But again, what if we tested the

26:15

proposition? Because you've got the Iranians,

26:17

the Houthis, Hezbollah, they all say that

26:20

they are targeting Israel because they want

26:22

the war in Gaza to end. Now,

26:24

maybe they're bad people. Maybe they are

26:26

liars. The Houthis have decided,

26:28

wow, we have this capability now where we

26:31

can just screw with ships in the

26:33

Gulf and mess up the global economy

26:35

and get a bunch of governments to

26:37

freak out. But I don't know. Why

26:39

don't we try ending the war and

26:41

calling their bluff? That's what I'd love

26:43

to see. Yeah, well, it's always been

26:45

the case that the only true pathway

26:47

to de-escalation, because we keep seeing these warnings

26:49

and these statements and these calls and that's all good. And

26:52

certainly it's good and important that you want to

26:54

shoot down things that are fired and indiscriminate civilians

26:57

in Israel. We should do all that. But

27:00

if there's not an end of the war in Gaza, this is

27:02

just going to keep happening. And to the

27:04

Russia to that point, one of these times, it's

27:07

not going to, I mean, not that it's ended well already,

27:09

it hasn't. It's been catastrophic already. But one of these times

27:11

it's going to get worse. And one of these times you

27:13

could have a full blown war in Lebanon or a full

27:15

blown war between Israel

27:18

and Iran. And nothing that

27:20

we've seen from Netanyahu suggests that he's truly

27:22

committed to seeing true de-escalation, which would involve

27:24

a ceasefire in Gaza. Yeah,

27:26

you can imagine a very cynical read on Netanyahu, where

27:28

he would love another larger, more

27:31

open ended war that would ensure he

27:33

stays in power. A few

27:35

more things from Gaza, but you mentioned this

27:37

horrible Israeli strike on a school in Gaza

27:39

City this past Saturday. The White House issued

27:42

a statement on that attack saying that Israel,

27:44

quote, must take measures to minimize civilian harm.

27:46

And that quote, far too many civilians continue

27:48

to be killed and wounded. Vice

27:51

President Kamala Harris was out on the campaign trail. She

27:53

was also asked about the Israeli strike. Here's what she

27:55

had to say. I

28:00

mean, Israel has a right to

28:03

go after the terrorists that are Hamas. But

28:06

as I have said many, many times, they

28:09

also have, I

28:11

believe, an important responsibility to avoid

28:14

civilian casualties. So

28:16

a few more things out of Gaza I want to get

28:18

to in a minute, but let's just pause to talk about

28:20

the vice president's comments for a second, because we're starting to

28:22

see happen to

28:24

her what was happening to Biden, which

28:26

is events are getting interrupted by Gaza

28:28

protesters more often. There's an

28:31

open question still, I think, about what

28:33

the uncommitted movement voters will do at

28:35

the Democratic Convention. People

28:37

suspect that encampments are about to return to

28:40

college campuses when kids get back in the

28:42

fall. You and I have both

28:44

talked with people in activist groups who are trying

28:46

to figure out like, okay, we want this war to end.

28:49

How do we recalibrate our tactics now

28:52

that Kamala Harris is the nominee and

28:54

not Joe Biden? And I figured we could just sort

28:56

of like talk through our take on

28:59

all of that, because we are obviously people

29:01

that have been very critical of Joe Biden's

29:03

policy with respect to Gaza, want this war

29:05

to end. And

29:07

I think just want to be constructive here.

29:09

So I can kick us off. I

29:12

do think like my operating assumption, and I'd love

29:14

to know if you disagree, Ben, is that

29:16

while Biden has decided not to run

29:19

for reelection, I don't think he's going

29:21

to give up any governing responsibilities, especially

29:23

not foreign policy. No, no way. And especially

29:25

not this issue where he's invested a lot

29:27

of time and attention, but also Joe Biden

29:29

just genuinely thinks that he is the smartest

29:31

guy in the room on foreign policy and

29:33

the smartest guy in the room when it

29:35

comes to Bibi Netanyahu, full stop.

29:38

So like that's just a way of

29:40

saying, I don't think Kamala Harris has

29:42

any space to really change

29:44

the administration's policy between now and election

29:46

day. That said, I do think

29:48

she has a moral humanitarian

29:50

and political imperative to

29:53

signal that she would do things

29:55

differently. And then bigger picture

29:57

just for like activists who are

29:59

listening. or really care about this

30:01

issue, I just want to repeat that the

30:03

worst possible thing that could happen for the

30:06

people in Gaza is Donald Trump getting elected

30:08

because he could care less if this war

30:10

continues or deescalates. And

30:13

also remember that the platform adapted

30:15

at the Republican National Committee says

30:18

that Trump would deport, quote unquote, pro-Hamas

30:20

radicals and make our college campuses safe

30:22

and patriotic again. So if you're an

30:24

American protester, Donald Trump wants to deport

30:26

you, not just not listen to you.

30:29

Long story short, like, do I

30:32

think interrupting Kamala Harris's events is going

30:34

to make her policy change or impact

30:36

what Joe Biden's are doing? No, I

30:38

don't at all. And you can

30:40

tell like in how Harris is responding tonally

30:42

that she doesn't either. Here's one more clip

30:45

and then I'll throw over to you. I'm

30:47

here because we believe in democracy. Everyone's

30:51

voice matters, but I am speaking

30:53

now. I am speaking now.

31:05

You know what? If you want Donald

31:07

Trump to win, then say

31:09

that. Otherwise I'm speaking. So

31:18

that was Kamala Harris shutting down some Gaza protesters

31:20

at a recent campaign event. You can tell she

31:22

sort of the message is shifted from, you know,

31:26

I'm listening. I care about all these voices like

31:29

what you do matters to kind of shut

31:32

up and sit down for the moment. Like

31:34

we got to win this election. Ben, I'm

31:36

curious what you make of the kind of

31:38

evolution of her responses on these set of

31:41

issues and what you think, you know, if

31:43

you are like advising an activist group, what

31:45

is the best way to advocate to end

31:47

this war in this new context with Harris

31:49

at the top of the ticket? Yeah,

31:52

I think it's like

31:55

I'd frame this as a two way street. So

31:57

first of all, on the activist side, you

31:59

do have to. And look, we

32:01

should just preface by saying, I understand, and you

32:04

and I both know a bunch of people in this movement,

32:07

a lot of these are people

32:09

who've lost like dozens of family members. So

32:11

it's not the same thing as people,

32:14

a typical interest group, they're

32:16

people with understandable passion. The

32:20

question is, what is the best way to kind

32:22

of make some headway on the things you care

32:25

about? And so from

32:27

the activist perspective, you have to

32:29

recognize that a couple of things have changed. One,

32:31

Joe Biden, the man

32:33

who is truly responsible for the policy that you

32:36

don't like, is

32:38

no longer the candidate. And so just

32:40

kind of transitioning and projecting onto

32:42

her, I know she's vice president, but nobody thinks she's

32:44

been the decision maker on Gaza. Just

32:46

projecting onto her the same kind of anger that you

32:48

had at Joe Biden, I don't think

32:50

makes sense. Just

32:53

tactically, just for pure political tactics,

32:56

it's a changed reality. And

32:59

the second piece of that is, the

33:02

kind of broad multiracial coalition, dare

33:04

I say like the kind of Obama coalition,

33:07

younger people, people of color, they're

33:09

super excited about Kamala Harris and they wanna

33:11

be excited about Kamala Harris. And a

33:14

lot of those people are people that

33:16

might even be your natural allies, but

33:18

they don't wanna see Kamala Harris at this critical moment

33:20

with less than 90 days left, put

33:23

in difficult circumstances at rallies and things like

33:25

that. And you just have to kind of

33:27

contend with that reality too. And

33:29

so then the question is like, what are you trying to influence

33:31

here? Because you're right, she's

33:34

unlikely to be able to kind of go back from a

33:36

rally and go into the situation room and change

33:38

the policy. You want her to

33:40

number one, sit down

33:43

with and meet with and listen to people

33:45

in your movement, which is something that Joe Biden

33:48

did not do really. I mean, there are kind

33:50

of a couple of heavily curated meetings at the

33:52

White House, but I mean, sitting down with people

33:54

in places like Michigan, places like Georgia and truly

33:56

listening to them and hearing their stories and what

33:59

happened to those. families, you should be

34:01

pushing for that. You should

34:03

be going in there with a whole range

34:05

of things that you'd like to see going

34:08

forward. Post-November, what would you like to see

34:10

her focus on? Whether it's

34:12

restrictions of offensive military assistance to

34:14

Israel, whether it's enforcing

34:17

US law and international

34:19

law related to cutting

34:21

off assistance to certain units that are

34:24

proven, demonstrated to have engaged in potential

34:26

war crimes. What is a massive

34:29

aid package look like for

34:32

Gaza? What is a much

34:34

more assertive effort look like to get aid

34:36

into Gaza? There's a whole personnel, kinds of

34:38

people you'd like to see working

34:41

on this policy in the Harris Administration. There's

34:43

a whole agenda of things. I know it's

34:45

really hard when you're in the moment here

34:47

and you're like, I'm worried about what's happening

34:49

in Gaza today and tomorrow to look even

34:51

three months ahead. I think that

34:54

there's really an opening for the uncommitted

34:57

movement to channel that energy in

34:59

that kind of direction. On the

35:02

Harris campaign side, I'd say the same

35:04

thing. You can't

35:06

just say, well, now you got to get with the

35:08

program, it's Kamala. She should

35:10

be sitting down and listening to those people. We

35:12

played the clip last week, Tommy of Tim Waltz, saying

35:15

that after the uncommitted movement in Minnesota, that

35:17

these people's voices should be heard. Waltz

35:20

should be meeting with them as well. Show that there's an open

35:22

door. Show that you're willing to have hard conversations. Show you're

35:24

willing to listen to people. It's going to be

35:26

hard for them to make promises in those meetings

35:29

because, let's face it, then they get leaked out

35:31

and then everybody's arguing about it. Just

35:34

present ideas, listen, and also

35:36

have a change of tone. She's had a change

35:38

of tone to an extent of saying, I will

35:41

not be silent. You hear her frustration, sounds a

35:43

little bit more acute than Biden's when she talks

35:45

about civil casualties, but taking a

35:47

different tone. You can't take a different policy when

35:49

you're vice president, but you can set a different

35:52

tone in how you talk about the issue, talk

35:54

about the values and principles that are going to

35:56

guide you. I think there's an opportunity here for

35:59

both sides. of this debate in

36:01

our Big Ten coalition to come together. I hope

36:04

both sides take it because the risk

36:06

for the activist is that

36:08

there's this kind of wave of enthusiasm for

36:10

Kamala Harris and they start to turn off

36:12

even some of their allies if they are

36:14

seen as kind of trying to disrupt that

36:16

and derail her. On the other

36:19

hand, for Kamala Harris politically, let's just talk

36:21

for, you know, obviously the moral and humanitarian

36:23

considerations are paramount, but politically the last thing

36:25

you want when you do have all those

36:27

good vibes going in the fall is yes,

36:29

like huge protests on campuses that are now

36:31

directed at you, a sense

36:33

that you're not listening, Jill

36:36

Stein and third-party candidates like

36:38

mucking around in your coalition and peeling

36:40

on voters. Yeah, Jill Stein, the most cynical

36:42

person in the world saying that she's going

36:44

to recruit a Palestinian vice presidential nominee and

36:46

just like again just a clear

36:48

effort to try to herd the Democratic ticket.

36:51

Yeah. There's nothing more. So like I hope

36:53

that we can find a way to kind

36:56

of, we're not going to bridge this distance

36:58

fully, but at least narrow that distance and

37:00

kind of create some lines of communication. Yeah,

37:03

I'm with you. I mean, I'm not telling anyone not to

37:05

protest or not to be an activist in the way they

37:07

see fit. I just do think like, I

37:09

think we should all be adults here and try to think

37:11

through what is effective and what is not. And I think

37:14

Joe Biden felt immovable on this issue. Kamala Harris

37:17

does not at all. I think she starts in

37:19

a better place and we'll get

37:21

to a better place, but I think we have to be honest

37:23

with ourselves about the amount of

37:25

power she has in this moment. And

37:28

unfortunately, it is limited. Two quick things before we get

37:30

a break. It has been a little over two years

37:32

since the Dobbs decision overturned Roe versus

37:34

Wade, removing the constitutional right to

37:36

abortion. And the country is

37:38

still reeling from this decision to take the

37:41

country back 50 years. But

37:43

for an entire movement of high ranking

37:45

Republican officials, Dobbs is just the beginning.

37:48

On this week's strict scrutiny, Kate, Melissa and Leah

37:50

look back on that fateful 2022 decision and

37:53

how it rocked the reproductive world since.

37:55

They're also going to dig into how

37:57

severe abortion restrictions tie into the horrifying.

38:00

plans of project 2025. To learn more

38:02

about the repercussions of this decision and

38:04

follow all the news that's fit to

38:06

scream about, look for the episode titled

38:08

State of the Uterus on strict scrutiny's

38:10

feed. Also next week we are going

38:12

to be at the Democratic National Convention. Here

38:15

at Crooked Media we're going to try

38:17

to give Friends of the Pod subscribers

38:19

access to a lot of behind-the-scenes content

38:21

and community events including a DNC subscriber

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featuring all of us hanging out back-to-back,

38:27

and then four ad-free

38:29

episodes of PODsave America recapping the

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biggest convention news of the night and brand

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new episodes of Inside 2024 and Polar Coaster

38:36

from Dan Pfeiffer. So

38:38

it's gonna be a hell of a week and

38:40

you know we got a Democratic Party nominee so it'll be a

38:42

good deal. Get all of our exclusive

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42:24

Just a couple more updates on just the situation in

42:26

Gaza, and then we'll come back around to the ceasefire

42:28

thing, because I think that's relevant too for this political

42:30

conversation we're having. So in Gaza,

42:32

again, tens of thousands of people were

42:34

ordered to move from a designated humanitarian zone

42:37

in Khan Yunus after Israel said that

42:39

Hamas had fired rockets from the area. But

42:41

again, these are people that have been moved

42:43

over and over and over again as

42:45

Gaza has just been unlivable. So hell on

42:48

earth for these people. The Wall Street Journal

42:50

had a long feature about how aid isn't

42:52

getting into Gaza once again, since the

42:55

IDF operation Rafa in May, aid going

42:57

to Gaza has decreased, subjecting almost everyone

42:59

in Gaza to food insecurity and resulting

43:01

in dozens of deaths from malnutrition. According

43:04

to the UN, the number of Aatrox

43:06

has more than halved to less than

43:08

80 a day in June and July.

43:11

And then politically in Israel, we're

43:13

seeing more cracks in Netanyahu's government. There's

43:16

this growing rift between Bibi Netanyahu

43:18

and his defense minister, Yauhav Kalant,

43:20

that continues to grow and become

43:22

more public. This time, Kalant reportedly

43:24

called Bibi's aim of total victory over

43:27

Hamas, quote unquote, nonsense in a

43:29

closed door meeting with the Knesset

43:31

Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Netanyahu's

43:33

office fired back in the press

43:35

saying that Kalant adopts the anti-Israel

43:37

narrative and that he harms the

43:39

chances of reaching a hostage release

43:41

deal. So again, these guys are

43:43

in the same political party, but Kalant

43:46

has become this sort of voice of

43:48

moderation in this very extreme government. And

43:50

those voices keep getting drowned out by

43:52

more extreme factions. And then finally, right

43:55

before we started recording, there was a report

43:57

in The New York Times that said. Israel

44:00

has been repeatedly adding new conditions

44:03

to ceasefire proposals that they

44:05

had already put forward, including

44:07

like very sensitive issues, like

44:10

demanding that Israel retain control of Gaza's

44:12

southern border, or not allowing displaced Palestinians

44:14

to return to their homes in northern

44:17

Gaza. So again, then this just sort

44:19

of like gets us back to this

44:21

activism question where clearly Bibi

44:23

Netanyahu does not want to cut

44:26

the ceasefire deal, like he is

44:28

doing everything he can to throw

44:30

up roadblocks in front of

44:32

his own negotiators at times to prevent it

44:34

from happening. So I do think

44:36

we should keep the pressure on the Biden administration

44:38

to, you know, cut off weapons and stop sending

44:40

arms and like fueling this war. But you know,

44:43

there just feels like there's no light at the

44:45

end of the tunnel right now, because we

44:48

just have a bad faith actor in Bibi

44:50

Netanyahu and a terrorist organization in Hamas and

44:52

getting them to a ceasefire is just impossible.

44:55

Yeah, I mean, I think what's depressing about this

44:57

is that the Biden administration

44:59

after that kind of one weapon

45:01

shipment was paused in the spring,

45:04

and there was a backlash to

45:06

that. They seem to have no appetite to

45:09

entertain that again, which I think is

45:11

a tragic mistake,

45:13

you know. And so

45:16

the play that they ran was member Biden

45:18

going out and announcing that there was an

45:20

Israeli proposal that everybody agreed to and now

45:22

is all in Hamas. I

45:25

have no doubt that Hamas is, you

45:27

know, SINWR is the leader of Hamas.

45:29

No doubt they're a gigantic fucking problem

45:31

in the negotiations. It's also the

45:34

case clearly in this report confirms this

45:36

is not an Israeli proposal. I mean,

45:38

maybe some Israeli negotiator agreed to it.

45:41

But if Bibi Netanyahu continually introduces

45:43

new conditions and blows things up at the end, how

45:45

can you say it's an Israeli proposal when the Israeli

45:47

Prime Minister doesn't agree to it? And

45:50

you know, that's been staring us in the face

45:52

for weeks now that he's just playing for time

45:54

and playing a blame game, just trying to, you

45:56

know, shift the blame on Hamas and even better

45:58

if it's the Americans that are that. And

46:01

to me, the reality is, look, if they can

46:03

somehow pull a rabbit out of a hat and

46:05

get a negotiated ceasefire, that's by far the first

46:07

best option. It does not look pretty

46:09

likely right now, though, Tommy. And the question is,

46:11

if you want a ceasefire,

46:13

because you think it's the best way to

46:16

de-escalate, get aid in, and frankly continue to

46:18

negotiate for the hostages, then the

46:20

ceasefire itself has to be the objective

46:22

of US policy. And that only involves

46:24

using some leverage to get the Israeli

46:26

government into a ceasefire. And that involves

46:28

things like weapons. And so

46:31

if we're not willing to entertain using leverage,

46:33

we're going to be kind of stuck in

46:36

this status quo where you're hoping that the

46:38

diplomats can somehow overcome the fact that Sinoir

46:40

and Netanyahu are the final decision makers here.

46:42

And that's asking a lot of diplomats. Yeah,

46:45

it really, really is. One more sort

46:47

of piece of interesting news here about

46:49

how Foreign Affairs is

46:51

directly overlapping with our elections.

46:54

Last Friday, Microsoft announced that a high

46:56

ranking official from a presidential campaign had

46:58

their email hacked through a phishing scheme.

47:00

That's sort of when you get one

47:02

of those emails, click this

47:04

link and you end up giving away

47:06

your password somehow or getting some malware

47:08

on your computer. This hack reportedly came

47:10

from a unit run by Iran's Revolutionary

47:13

Guard Corps. Since then, the Trump

47:15

campaign has confirmed that they were the target

47:17

of this hack. And then the Washington Post

47:19

broke the news that Roger Stone was the

47:21

victim. For those who don't know

47:23

who Roger Stone is, he calls himself a

47:26

dirty trickster. He's actually way worse than

47:28

that. He's like a scumbag who worked

47:30

for Richard Nixon. He

47:33

was a, you know,

47:35

he was a, quote unquote, rat fucker

47:37

for Ronald Reagan. Yeah, he worked for

47:39

all the kind of worst right wing

47:41

racist Republican

47:44

operatives over the years and has been a Trump buddy

47:46

for a long time. So Politico, the

47:48

Washington Post and the New York Times has

47:50

said they've been getting emails from an anonymous

47:53

source with internal documents from the Trump campaign

47:55

that included communications about

47:57

the VP pick before it was

47:59

public. like apparently like

48:01

even a preliminary vetting document on JD

48:03

Vance. That said, none of these

48:05

outlets have published any of these hacked documents.

48:08

The Harris campaign was also targeted by

48:10

these phishing attempts, and now the FBI

48:12

is investigating the whole thing. I'm

48:15

sure our listeners remember the

48:17

time when the Democratic National Committee and

48:19

Hillary Clinton's aide, John Podesta, were hacked

48:21

back in 2016, and

48:23

there was just a ton of coverage of

48:26

those materials. Near attending emails reprinted in

48:28

the New York Times. Yeah,

48:30

like months and months worth of coverage.

48:33

Also at the time, Trump was literally

48:35

begging Russia to hack Hillary's emails. He

48:37

was also saying things like, quote, I

48:39

love WikiLeaks, and now without irony, his

48:42

spokesman says, quote, any media or news

48:44

outlet reprinting documents or internal communications are

48:46

doing the bidding of America's enemies and

48:48

doing exactly what they want. Ben- I

48:50

thought it was a hoax. Yeah,

48:53

I thought it was a hoax too. Ben, here's my question. The

48:56

IRGC is, they're bad, bad guys, but

48:58

they're pretty smart. Why

49:00

are they trying to launder hacked materials

49:03

through Politico? Isn't the election

49:05

interference playbook that you just buy a URL

49:07

and throw them on there, like

49:09

hand them over to WikiLeaks, whatever? What

49:11

are we doing here? Yeah, the playbook

49:14

would be to dump them out. I

49:16

mean, the reality is that Russia, China,

49:18

and Iran all are engaged in election

49:20

interference of one sort or another. Plenty

49:22

of reporting on this. They

49:24

try hacking, hack and publish,

49:26

hack and release, and

49:29

obviously a lot of misinformation and disinformation. In

49:32

terms of the Iranian motivation, there's

49:34

two potential motivations here.

49:37

One is sometimes it's

49:39

just sowing chaos, right? And flexing

49:41

your muscles, showing that we

49:43

can reach into your system. And so the

49:46

reason that if it was Iranians, they might go after

49:48

both campaigns is that it's

49:50

not even really about helping one candidate or another,

49:52

it's just about chaos and

49:54

showing how capable Iran

49:56

is. The other is they

49:58

do have their own beef. Trump, it's

50:00

the IRGC in particular that has

50:02

never forgiven him and won't for

50:04

the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. So

50:07

they may have a particular motivation to

50:09

try to embarrass Trump himself. But

50:13

some of this is also just like,

50:15

hey, maybe we all learned after John

50:18

Podesta clicked on a suspicious looking link

50:20

in 2016, Roger

50:22

Stone's email hygiene, probably not that

50:24

great. Some

50:27

of the responsibility has migrated onto the

50:29

people who have to kind of defend

50:31

these systems here. And that guy is

50:33

the kind of guy that probably has

50:36

an AOL account and is

50:39

computer literacy halted around the

50:41

early aughts, I think. Yeah,

50:43

I think Roger Stone sort

50:46

of famously, infamously, was caught

50:48

advertising on some Swinger websites. I

50:50

know there was a New Yorker

50:52

profile of him in like 2008

50:56

by Jeffrey Toobin, actually, where

51:00

Roger Stone had Jeff

51:03

meet him at the leading

51:05

Swinger's Club in Miami for

51:07

their conversation about what role

51:09

that Stone had played in the

51:11

downfall of Eliot Spitzer. So I don't know. Everything

51:14

is just really weird. Yeah, it's

51:16

not like Roger Stone's never tried to steal

51:18

proprietary information and make use of it. I'm

51:20

just saying it's okay, it's not okay. But I

51:23

think what people... You're a big Watergate fan. Yeah, people should

51:25

just be ready for the fact that there's going to be

51:27

a bunch of efforts at election interference. And one of the

51:29

things that's happened that's good, I think, in our electorate is

51:31

by the third Trump election, like, I

51:34

think not all people, but more

51:36

people are a little bit more

51:38

mindful to not trust everything they

51:40

see online and to kind of wonder about

51:42

the origins of stuff and if

51:44

you're working on a campaign. We got hacked by

51:46

the Chinese in 2008. Some

51:49

people aren't old enough to know that, but even 2016 wasn't

51:51

the first time a foreign government

51:54

hacked a campaign. Yeah,

51:58

I hate the fact that Hillary Clinton got... completely

52:00

screwed by a hacked material, hack

52:02

and dump released by WikiLeaks and

52:04

others, and that Trump seems to

52:06

be getting away with it. That said, I also kind

52:08

of think that major

52:10

news outlets showing some restraint around hacked

52:12

materials is maybe a good

52:14

thing or a good thing, a rule going forward.

52:17

I still don't know how you prevent this stuff from

52:19

happening because, again, it's the internet. You can just dump

52:21

it online, but... That's exactly the right point. It's like,

52:23

you're never going to prevent this. But

52:26

what you can do is have better antibodies

52:28

against it, better cyber defenses, better public information

52:31

about information potentially

52:33

come from state-sponsored sources. And

52:36

yeah, a media that is more

52:38

responsible and isn't going to spend weeks publishing...

52:41

As much as I'd like to see Roger Stone's email, I

52:43

don't need to see his fucking email to know he's an

52:45

asshole. So, like, you know, political means what I

52:47

call. Well said. Yeah, well said. A

52:50

couple more things before we get to your interview. So

52:52

it's been two weeks since the presidential election to Venezuela,

52:55

as we've discussed. All available

52:57

information suggests that, despite President

52:59

Maduro's many efforts to rig

53:01

the election, prevent any

53:03

real opposition from running, he's still lost

53:05

in a landslide. I saw some estimates

53:08

that he lost by up to 38

53:10

points. So Maduro got smoked

53:12

in this election. But, of course, instead

53:14

of giving up power, Maduro has unleashed

53:16

a brutal crackdown on opposition leaders and

53:18

protesters and anybody that opposes him. Local

53:21

NGOs say around 1,200 people

53:23

have been detained, some even on terrorism

53:26

charges, and up to 24

53:28

have been killed. So it's been very, very ugly

53:30

in Venezuela. The Wall Street Journal... Maduro

53:32

even promised to build two new

53:35

prisons to house all the political prisoners that

53:37

will come from this. So he's not hiding

53:39

this. Now, Ben, this word gets interesting. The

53:41

Wall Street Journal reported that the US has

53:43

discussed giving Maduro and his

53:45

top lieutenants pardons if they

53:47

will agree to give up power.

53:49

So, like, an amnesty deal. So

53:51

Maduro has been indicted for drug

53:53

trafficking and conspiracies and all sorts

53:55

of crimes. The State Department denied

53:57

this Wall Street Journal report saying...

54:00

We have not made any efforts to Maduro

54:02

or others since this election. Interesting sort of

54:04

caveat there. Ben, I just

54:07

wonder what you made of these reports. I mean, obviously

54:11

giving Maduro amnesty in the wake of all

54:13

that he's done would be very difficult politics.

54:17

But just stepping back, like I personally think

54:19

getting rid of this guy in exchange for

54:21

not prosecuting him is a great deal for

54:24

the people of Venezuela. That said, like,

54:26

I don't know, I can't imagine the US

54:28

offering this to him because there's

54:30

no way he's gonna take it unless they've also

54:33

kind of like figured out some

54:35

nice villa for him to live in in Saudi

54:37

Arabia or something, but I don't know, what did

54:39

you make of this? Yeah, so

54:41

I think that first

54:43

of all, the scale of the defeat kind

54:45

of matters. He's pretty humiliated and where

54:48

it matters is not just internationally, but I

54:50

think like the Venezuelan military, which he's relied

54:52

on, you know, they

54:54

kind of know they're sitting on this powder

54:57

keg. They're propping up this guy that can

54:59

survive without him who's deeply unpopular. And,

55:02

you know, the whole thing could blow for them at

55:04

some point. And so I think he's

55:06

weakened internally. And

55:08

the opposition has proven resilient and pretty fucking

55:10

brave. Like they're still going out, they're still

55:13

protesting. You also get these

55:15

reports that Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia are also

55:17

getting involved behind the scenes to try to

55:19

negotiate something between the opposition and Maduro. That's

55:22

positive too, because those are three

55:24

leftist leaders, right? All

55:26

of those are people that in the past,

55:28

you know, maybe hadn't been pro-Muduro, but they've

55:30

certainly, you know, they're not in

55:33

the kind of right wing milieu of Latin America.

55:36

If this guy and his kind of

55:39

core lieutenants can get

55:41

some beachfront property in Brazil and

55:43

just be done with it, like that

55:45

is far and away best outcome. I

55:47

would much rather see a new government and

55:50

transitional government in Venezuela an end to

55:52

this nightmare. And, you know, if the

55:54

price of that is, you know, Maduro is

55:56

not behind bars. He's, you know, on some

55:58

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1:14:00

articles of crimes against humanity

1:14:02

treaty. And what we're

1:14:04

saying is this is an opportunity for

1:14:06

us to add gender apartheid as part

1:14:08

of that codification

1:14:12

in international law. We

1:14:14

believe that that will close the

1:14:16

gap that exists in international law.

1:14:18

There is currently nothing on the

1:14:20

books that allows us to really

1:14:22

address the systemic nature of

1:14:25

oppression we're seeing in Afghanistan today under

1:14:27

Taliban rule. But it

1:14:29

also creates rules for states

1:14:31

and other agencies and international

1:14:33

institutions who are engaging with

1:14:36

the Taliban. It creates a

1:14:38

parameter that tells us how

1:14:41

we should be engaging with a regime like

1:14:43

the Taliban. And

1:14:46

so let's say this happened.

1:14:50

I know there's a lot more work to be done, which

1:14:52

we can talk about in a second. But

1:14:54

what would the consequences be for the Taliban

1:14:56

or for governments that deal with the Taliban

1:14:58

if this were codified in the UN system,

1:15:00

gender apartheid as a

1:15:02

crime against humanity that the Taliban is violating?

1:15:05

I think we would look at

1:15:07

what the accountability mechanisms look like.

1:15:10

But essentially codifying gender apartheid as

1:15:12

part of international law

1:15:14

means that we will prevent

1:15:16

complicity of states in such

1:15:19

crimes. So very much

1:15:21

like apartheid South Africa and the

1:15:23

movement that was built around dismantling

1:15:26

that oppressive system,

1:15:28

what we're saying is codifying

1:15:30

gender apartheid will create

1:15:33

rules for how we engage

1:15:35

with a regime like the

1:15:37

Taliban. So if our elected

1:15:39

representatives choose to sit across

1:15:41

the table from a regime

1:15:43

that is instituting a system of gender

1:15:46

apartheid, then there are lots of different

1:15:48

ways that we can hold them accountable.

1:15:51

Well, and for instance, I recently there

1:15:53

were some meetings with the Taliban in

1:15:55

Doha. And I noticed that I

1:15:58

think Secretary General Gutierrez might

1:16:01

have been involved in other governments. And

1:16:03

there were no women invited to those

1:16:05

meetings. And that was a bit of

1:16:07

a backlash to that. I mean, would one of the

1:16:09

consequences be that that kind of

1:16:11

thing wouldn't happen? That there'd be kind of

1:16:14

a higher prioritization on insisting that women's voices

1:16:16

are heard in other

1:16:18

countries engagements with Afghanistan? Absolutely.

1:16:21

We would, it would compel

1:16:23

states to root

1:16:25

their approach in principled engagement, which

1:16:27

means prioritizing basic human rights. So

1:16:30

part of the negotiations with the

1:16:32

Taliban would be, there'd be red

1:16:34

lines about what those negotiations look

1:16:37

like. And there is

1:16:39

just this continuation in the way

1:16:41

that we have engaged with the

1:16:43

Taliban since the Doha negotiations four

1:16:45

or five years ago, where we've

1:16:47

conceded to every demand when the

1:16:49

Taliban have made it. And actually

1:16:51

this will codifying gender

1:16:54

apartheid will compel us, will compel

1:16:56

our elected representatives and other states

1:16:58

who are engaging with them with

1:17:01

red lines so that we make it really

1:17:03

clear that when you're engaging with the Taliban,

1:17:05

it has to be principled. You have to

1:17:07

have women at the

1:17:09

table and you can't negotiate girls

1:17:11

and women's rights away. So

1:17:16

where does this currently stand? I mean, there's such

1:17:18

a common sense of this. I mean, if apartheid

1:17:20

on the basis of race and ethnicity is

1:17:23

codified after the South

1:17:25

Africa experience, it stands to reason

1:17:27

that women are similarly a group

1:17:29

of people that are facing apartheid

1:17:32

conditions. Not just in

1:17:34

Afghanistan, I think Iran would be a

1:17:36

candidate for this as well.

1:17:39

But what countries have signed on to this

1:17:42

and what's your sense of the level of

1:17:44

momentum to continue to push this forward in

1:17:46

the UN system? I mean,

1:17:48

the momentum is really huge. Two years ago,

1:17:50

nobody was talking about it in the terms

1:17:52

that we're talking about it today. We

1:17:55

have such an incredible

1:17:57

group of member states who

1:17:59

are supporting it. this who have expressed

1:18:01

openness to talk about codifying gender

1:18:03

apartheid as part of this UN

1:18:07

process, countries like Mexico,

1:18:09

Malta, the Philippines, Austria,

1:18:12

we have built a really strong

1:18:15

and powerful movement, but we need

1:18:17

everybody to support this work. We

1:18:19

need everybody to write

1:18:22

to their elected representatives, to share

1:18:24

these stories of Afghan women and

1:18:26

girls, to share their stories of

1:18:28

resistance, to talk about the fact

1:18:30

that girls aren't allowed to get

1:18:32

basic education in Afghanistan,

1:18:34

and we're continuously

1:18:36

engaging with the regime that

1:18:39

is enforcing that. So

1:18:42

the momentum is really positive. I

1:18:44

really think that it's moving in the right

1:18:46

direction, but we need all

1:18:49

the help we can get. So

1:18:52

you may have noticed we're having an election here

1:18:54

in the United States, and Kamala Harris has captured

1:18:57

a lot of excitement, kind of mobilized

1:18:59

people that had kind of gotten

1:19:01

pretty turned off US politics, kind

1:19:04

of rebuilding some of that Obama coalition of

1:19:06

younger people, people of color, women

1:19:08

are central to her message because reproductive

1:19:10

freedom and abortion have been very mobilizing

1:19:12

issues for her here. I'm

1:19:14

kind of tossing a softball, Sahar, in the

1:19:17

sense of, what would

1:19:19

you like to see a Kamala Harris do if she's

1:19:21

elected on this issue? And frankly,

1:19:23

like what is the US, as the US

1:19:25

is kind of beginning to be concerned about

1:19:28

ISIS and its

1:19:31

reconstitution in parts of Afghanistan,

1:19:33

and what is the

1:19:35

US's responsibility here? What opportunity

1:19:39

exists for her? And what would you say

1:19:41

to people who say, well, we can't raise

1:19:43

issues like this because we have to raise

1:19:46

national security issues like ISIS in our engagement

1:19:48

with the Taliban? Well,

1:19:50

I mean, the first thing that I

1:19:52

would say is that politicians on both

1:19:54

sides of the aisle in the US,

1:19:56

but also around the world, you

1:19:59

know, precipitated the situation

1:20:01

we're seeing in Afghanistan today. So

1:20:03

I think everybody

1:20:05

has a responsibility when

1:20:08

it comes to actually

1:20:10

shining a light and trying to

1:20:12

pull back from the situation we're

1:20:14

seeing happen in Afghanistan. But

1:20:16

I think beyond that, if

1:20:19

we allow a system of gender

1:20:21

apartheid as we're seeing happen in

1:20:23

Afghanistan today, we're just setting a

1:20:25

dangerous precedent when it comes to

1:20:27

girls and women's rights everywhere. To

1:20:30

me, I always say, if the

1:20:33

person that I voted for is

1:20:35

comfortable to sit across a

1:20:37

table from a regime that is

1:20:40

disappearing women from the streets for

1:20:42

protesting for their right to education,

1:20:45

that is at war

1:20:48

with teenage girls, that is

1:20:50

stopping women from gaining access

1:20:52

to life-saving humanitarian aid, what

1:20:55

will they do when they

1:20:57

have to fight for my rights? I think

1:20:59

that's the question we should all be asking. Yeah,

1:21:03

and it's a good opportunity. I mean, the

1:21:05

US talked a lot about

1:21:07

these issues when we were kind of trying

1:21:09

to build public support and justify our continued

1:21:12

intervention in Afghanistan. Here's

1:21:14

an opportunity to actually mean

1:21:18

what we say about those issues. I

1:21:21

wanted to ask you, at the Olympics in

1:21:23

Paris, there were several Afghan women there.

1:21:27

One in particular, Manisa Talash, who was

1:21:29

on the Refugee Olympic team, but

1:21:32

an Afghan woman, but she represented the Refugee

1:21:34

Olympic team, was actually

1:21:36

disqualified from the breaker competition for wearing

1:21:38

a cape with the words, free

1:21:41

Afghan women, which I thought was a

1:21:44

very powerful moment. You're

1:21:46

a former refugee. What

1:21:49

are Afghan women trying to tell us? Did

1:21:52

something like that get attention back

1:21:54

in Afghanistan, or is there information blackout

1:21:56

that keeps that out? What

1:22:00

does something like that mean to Afghan women?

1:22:04

The vast majority of the resistance

1:22:06

and the protests against the Taliban

1:22:09

are coming from women and girls

1:22:11

inside Afghanistan. From the

1:22:13

day the Taliban entered Kabul in

1:22:16

August 15th, three years ago to this

1:22:18

week, Afghan women and girls

1:22:20

are protesting on the streets of Afghanistan

1:22:23

in the face of huge

1:22:25

risk. They're being disappeared, they're

1:22:27

being tortured in Taliban prisons,

1:22:29

the Taliban are co-opting their

1:22:32

male family members and their punitive system.

1:22:34

So if you've been arrested for protesting,

1:22:37

they will go to your brother

1:22:39

or father or husband and say,

1:22:41

if these women have been quote

1:22:43

protesting again, that you will be

1:22:45

punished. So the vast majority of

1:22:47

the pushback is coming from women

1:22:49

and girls inside Afghanistan. When

1:22:52

it comes to the

1:22:54

bravery of someone like Manisha Talosh,

1:22:56

to me, I think it

1:23:00

exemplifies that resistance inside

1:23:02

the country. But

1:23:05

I also think it's very bittersweet in a

1:23:07

way because it's such a deep loss to

1:23:09

Afghanistan as a country and the

1:23:11

world really that a young woman has to

1:23:13

make that really, what I am

1:23:16

sure was a difficult decision to use that

1:23:18

moment and to use that platform to

1:23:20

make that sacrifice, to inform the

1:23:23

world about what is

1:23:25

happening to her community, to

1:23:28

women and girls inside Afghanistan. Women

1:23:32

and girls in Afghanistan know what is

1:23:34

happening to them. They're fighting it, they're

1:23:36

resisting it, they're running underground schools, they're

1:23:39

running safe houses, they're protesting on the

1:23:41

streets against armed Taliban.

1:23:44

The problem is

1:23:46

that the world isn't paying as much

1:23:48

attention as they should be. So I

1:23:50

think that what Manisha

1:23:52

did was really to inform us

1:23:54

about what's going on. And

1:23:58

what would you say? three-year anniversary, I mean,

1:24:01

in addition to your work with the Malala

1:24:03

Fund, I know like so

1:24:05

many people you were involved in helping a lot of

1:24:07

people who wanted to

1:24:09

get out of Afghanistan because they feared for themselves. I

1:24:12

know that that is an ongoing process for

1:24:14

a lot of people. There are still people who

1:24:17

are stuck in third countries without

1:24:19

a permanent home. There are people, obviously,

1:24:22

in Afghanistan who are separated from their families.

1:24:25

What can people do? If people care

1:24:27

about this and want to get involved,

1:24:31

is there a way for them to support

1:24:33

these efforts to plug into the

1:24:35

Malala Fund or simply to just have their

1:24:37

voices heard on the general apartheid issue? What

1:24:39

would you say to people that want

1:24:42

to feel like there's more that they can do about this? I

1:24:45

mean, there's so much people can do. Malala

1:24:48

Fund has an incredible

1:24:50

portfolio of grantees we support inside

1:24:52

and outside Afghanistan. So please go

1:24:54

on our website, look at the

1:24:57

organizations we support, support them,

1:25:00

share these stories of resistance

1:25:03

of these Afghan women and

1:25:05

girls who are actually doing

1:25:07

the incredibly courageous, difficult work

1:25:10

of standing up against the Taliban and

1:25:12

really write to

1:25:14

your elected representatives. Ask them,

1:25:18

what are they doing about

1:25:20

gender apartheid in Afghanistan? What

1:25:23

are they doing about the refugee crisis? So

1:25:26

many of the Afghans we're seeing

1:25:29

stuck in third countries or making

1:25:31

these incredibly perilous, difficult journeys are

1:25:34

our former allies, our Afghans

1:25:37

who supported the 20 year

1:25:40

international presence. There's so many

1:25:42

things that people can do.

1:25:46

Please go on our website, go on

1:25:48

our social media. We constantly amplify and

1:25:50

highlight stories of young

1:25:53

women, of organizations inside and

1:25:55

outside Afghanistan who are actually

1:25:57

taking on the this

1:26:00

fight. Well,

1:26:02

look, thanks so much for joining us. We'll definitely

1:26:04

do that. Encourage people to check out Malala

1:26:06

Fund and also to your other point, just to

1:26:08

kind of remain focused

1:26:11

on what Afghan women are doing

1:26:13

and standing up for their own

1:26:15

rights and Afghans who

1:26:18

are still in a perilous limbo in

1:26:20

many places. So thanks so much for joining us.

1:26:22

Thank you so much for having me, Ben. Thanks

1:26:29

again to Sahar for joining the show. Ben, it's

1:26:31

good to see you on Zoom next week. Are

1:26:34

we together next week? Oh no, am I in? You're

1:26:36

convention, right? I'm at the DNC next week. Yeah. It's

1:26:39

like ships passing in

1:26:41

the night. Yeah, no, it's a crazy summer. We

1:26:44

did, you know, Olympics too. The

1:26:46

one thing I've got to say, Tommy, is that the

1:26:50

Jordan Charles medal revocation

1:26:52

has got my patriotic blood up a

1:26:54

little bit here. I like

1:26:57

that one. We need to keep some long memories

1:26:59

here for the court of arbitration and for

1:27:01

the Olympics. I kind of don't hold it

1:27:03

against the Romanians, but

1:27:06

come on guys, give them both bronzes

1:27:08

at least. That's

1:27:11

clearly a solution, give them both bronzes. And

1:27:13

by the way, Olympics, let me just vent

1:27:15

for one second here. They love putting

1:27:18

up the picture of Simone and

1:27:20

Jordan bowing in the sportsmanship and

1:27:22

the three black women on the

1:27:24

podium and the Louvre is

1:27:26

tweeting, put in the Louvre. So they milk the

1:27:28

moment when it was for their purposes, then they

1:27:30

take the medal away from her, give me a

1:27:32

break. Sorry. You know what's going

1:27:35

in the Louvre? Is the French dick hitting the

1:27:38

high jump thing? That's going to go in the

1:27:40

Louvre, I think, if we're being honest. There's not

1:27:42

a big enough room. Also,

1:27:46

the Australian breakdancer was so, so

1:27:49

funny. Have you seen this? Oh,

1:27:51

I couldn't unsee it. How do you avoid it? Yeah. I

1:27:53

couldn't, and I couldn't decide how I felt about it because

1:27:55

on the one end, I was like, I was kind of

1:27:57

siding with her because I was like, who gives a shit?

1:28:00

She likes break dancing, the Australians are a little weird, she

1:28:04

did her kangaroo thing. Now there's a whole scandal that

1:28:06

she rigged the competition to win though, to get into

1:28:08

the Olympics. Oh really? Yeah, it's taking

1:28:10

a turn, it's taking a darker turn, so who

1:28:12

knows? I saw a very funny TikTok that

1:28:14

someone said was her, that I assume was her, where she

1:28:16

was kind of making fun of the whole thing, I don't

1:28:18

know. It made us all laugh, who

1:28:20

cares? Yeah, that's my point. I wanna feel good about the Olympics.

1:28:23

I want, let's all take the

1:28:25

good vibes out of it. Amen. All

1:28:28

right, well that's it for us. Talk to you guys next week.

1:28:30

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