If the beta version of Apple Podcasts in iOS 14.5 is to be believed...

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UPDATE AND CORRECTION: No, the beta version is not to be believed, we now know. It’s reported as a bug in the beta version and Apple claims the default “always download” functionality of Apple Podcasts will not change when the release is made public later this month. However, the implications and speculations on this action are still interesting, so I’m leaving them for you to read — Evo

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... Apple Podcasts soon will no longer auto-download podcast episodes, causing a podcast measurement shake-out of a similar magnitude to the IAB-driven reporting drop over the summer of 2018.

Briefly: When you subscribe to follow Podcast Pontifications on Apple Podcasts, Apple Podcasts automatically downloads the audio file of the most recent episode. It’ll keep doing that, even if you don’t listen, eventually stopping the auto-downloads after five unlistened files were downloaded, but resuming that behavior after you listen to an episode. 

Spotify works differently. When you follow Podcast Pontifications using Spotify, no download or stream happens without your express action. 

That’s why you keep hearing how Spotify is growing bigger than Apple Podcasts, but your download report paints a very different picture. And that picture is about to get reset when Apple follows suit and switches away from auto-downloading later this month.

If you’re selling advertising on your show, that means your available inventory will look smaller starting next month. I genuinely feel bad for the rough weeks ahead facing those who earn a living from ad revenue generated by their podcast. It’s going to be very difficult for publishers and ad rep firms to convince advertisers to part with the same amount of money while receiving less. And though they really aren’t getting less, they're perceiving the drop in downloads as less. 

There’s a group of service providers who could soften the blow: podcast hosting companies. Specifically, podcast media hosting companies need to step up and give podcasters better data about the true size of their audience. They have all the info they need to give us this information right now. By smartly looking at the user-agent, IP address, and referring URL of all file requests, they could answer the questions every podcaster—and, arguably, every advertiser—wants to know: what’s the size of my audience, and is my audience growing? 

Time to step up, podcast hosting companies.

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A written-to-be-read article and a full transcript of the audio of this episode can be found at https://podcastpontifications.com/episode/apple-podcasts-switch-to-streaming-will-decimate-downloads

Follow @EvoTerra on Twitter for more podcasting insights as they come.

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