Worst Recovery Since WWII Just Got Worse – Ep. 99

Released Friday, 31st July 2015
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This morning we got the first look at Q2 GDP
Q1 had been reported most recently at -.2
Everybody was looking for an upward revision due to the double seasonal adjustments
The revision brought Q1 into the black, but only by .6
Q2 expectation was 2.9; instead it came in at 2.3
I had mentioned that at best, Q2 GDP would be in the low 2's, which is what we have
After revisions, however, we could end up at below 2 for Q2
Wall Street and the Fed were too optimistic about Q2
Now previous GDP years have been revised, with the net effect of lowering U.S. GDP growth almost 1 percentage point for the past three years
After revisions, the average growth rate is 2% per year
2015 Q1 & Q2 average GDP growth rate is just 1.45%
The worst first half of the "recovery"
What is the point of raising rates now, when the economy is at its weakest?
The Fed is still waiting to see improvements in the labor market
Unemployment is low
The Fed is waiting to see increases in wage growth and in labor force participation
It is unlikely that there will be more part-time workers finding full time jobs
The Fed is still putting on a show, pretending that a rate hike will be appropriats
This recovery is the weakest recovery in the modern era, since WWII
We have had the most Keynesian monetary stimulus ever
The Keynesians will not consider that their policies are an economic sedative
Even though this is the biggest economic ever, the Keynesians still want more
Redbook Year-Over-Year Same Store Sales rose by just 1%
Last year, the year-over-year growth was 3%
Pundits blame poor retail sales on "hot weather"
People aren't shopping because they aren't making enough money
The U.S. home ownership rate fell to a new low of 63.4%
The result of government efforts to increase home ownership is the the lowest rate since 1967
Rental prices are at an all time record high
July Consumer Confidence plunged from 99.8 in June to 90.9 in July
As evidence continues to pour in that the U.S. economy is weaker than the government and the press report, the dollar remains high
Gold is not getting a rally from the economic news
Shorting of gold by speculators is a dangerous game, as there is no indication that the price of gold overvalued
It's not the traders who are buying gold. It's the strong, long-term holders that are doing all the buying

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Episode Details

Length
21m 9s
Explicit
No

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