What will the holiday 2023 shopping season look like for retailers? How are consumers adjusting their shopping, buying, and gifting habits this holiday season given the current economic environment? It’s our Holiday Special episode and we’ve brought in two incredible experts to dive into what’s really happening this season and explore what we expect the season will bring retailers.

Meet Roshan Jhunja, Head of Retail for Square, who recently released their holiday Festive Forecast report based on surveying merchants and consumers, and Bridget Johns-Pavlopoulos, co-Founder of To&From, a premium multi-brand marketplace for gifts of all occasions.

Square/AfterPay Festive Forecast Report available here: https://bit.ly/3EwpqP2

To&From gifting marketplace: https://app.toandfrom.com/

News alert #1: The Retail Razor Show has been nominated for The Retail Voice Award at the Vendors in Partnership Award ceremony during NRF 2023 in January in New York City! IF you’re a fan of the show, please give us your vote! You can vote here: https://bit.ly/VIPretail

News alert #2! We’ve moved up to #19 on the Feedspot Top 60 Best Retail podcasts list, so please keep those 5-star reviews in Apple Podcasts coming! With your help, we’ll move our way further up the Top 20! Leave us a review to be mentioned in upcoming episodes! https://blog.feedspot.com/retail_podcasts/

Meet your hosts, helping you cut through the clutter in retail & retail tech:

Ricardo Belmar, a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Influencer for 2022 & 2021, RIS News Top Movers and Shakers in Retail for 2021, a Top 12 ecommerce influencer, advisory council member at George Mason University’s Center for Retail Transformation, and director partner marketing advisor for retail & consumer goods at Microsoft.

Casey Golden, CEO of Luxlock. Obsessed with the customer relationship between the brand and the consumer. After a career on the fashion and supply chain technology side of the business, now slaying franken-stacks and building retail tech!

Includes music provided by imunobeats.com, featuring Made It On Stream (Xmas), from the album Lo-Fi Christmas, written by Hestron Mimms, published by Imuno. Includes sound effects provided by Free Sounds Library.

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Host → Ricardo Belmar,

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TRANSCRIPT

S2E6 Holiday Special

[00:00:00] Ricardo Belmar:

[00:00:20] Show Intro

[00:00:20] Ricardo Belmar: Hello and welcome to a very Merry and Joyous season two episode six of the Retail Razor Show. I'm your host, Ricardo.

[00:00:28] Casey Golden: And I'm your holiday spirited cohost, Casey Golden. Welcome retail Razor Show listeners to retail's favorite jingle, bell filled podcast for product junkies, commerce technologists, and everyone else in retail and retail tech alike.

[00:00:45] Ricardo Belmar: And if you didn't guess by our whimsical and seasonal intro, this is our holiday specials for 2023 episode of the show.

[00:00:54] Casey Golden: So Ricardo did. Did you start your holiday shopping or this season?

[00:00:58] Ricardo Belmar: Okay. Actually, [00:01:00] no, not really. I mean, had every intention to, honestly, ever since that second Amazon Prime day that we're not supposed to call Prime Day, cuz apparently I'm one of the few people who did buy things on that sale, but they were mostly for me and it didn't really help me get the shopping started early.

[00:01:14] Casey Golden: Oh, shame on you, Well, didn't you know that every industry expert is saying customers started the season early? Maybe you just need to hear it from our two guests today to get you into the shopping season of giving mode.

[00:01:30] Ricardo Belmar: Well, funny you should say that, Casey, because I bet many of our listeners are just like me and could use some insider knowledge on gifting and shopping ideas for the season. And by the way, did you start your shopping already,

[00:01:42] Casey Golden: Of course I did. My grandmother taught me to shop for thoughtful gifts all year long, but there are always a few emergency pur purchases before, you know, black friday, of course.

[00:01:52] Ricardo Belmar: Well, I should have known. So let's tell our listeners then all about our guests for today. Since we're not like other retail podcasts, we don't [00:02:00] just bring you a holiday special episode and talk about sales numbers for year over year stats for the season. No, no, no, of course we don't do that.

[00:02:09] Casey Golden: Certainly not. I mean, if you just want those types of numbers, check out the reports on NR F'S website instead, we're bringing you some much needed insights into what retailers and consumers are, not just thinking. , but what they're actually doing so far this season.

[00:02:25] Ricardo Belmar: That's right. Today we will be chatting with Roshan Jhunja, the head of retail for Square, who will be sharing some valuable insights from their recently released holiday forecast and survey of merchants and consumers.

[00:02:37] Casey Golden: And we also have Bridget Johns co-founder of To & From a premium multi-brand marketplace for gifts of all occasion. Who will share some interesting data about how consumers are shopping for gifts, and maybe she'll give us a few hints on what the hot presents really are this season.

[00:02:54] Ricardo Belmar: Well, I could certainly use some help in that department, so let's not keep everybody waiting and dive right into our [00:03:00] discussion with Roshan and Bridget.

[00:03:06] Holiday Special - Gifting

[00:03:06] Casey Golden: welcome everyone. We all know that finding that perfect gift is no easy task. But our guests have been making holiday shopping a lot more productive for retailers to prepare for the holiday season and less stressful on our pocketbooks. Alarming stat, 41% of Americans are willing to take on debt to gift shop with a whopping 15.2 billion is the estimated total of unwanted presents.

[00:03:35] This is worth the conversation. We all say we're starting out our holiday shopping early this year, but what are we buying? What are the trends in who's shopping where and with what? Let's unwrap the holiday gift shopping season. This is our 2023 holiday special report.

[00:03:53] Ricardo Belmar: And of course when the retail razor show does a holiday special, we don't just run through all the usual stats everybody else talks about. [00:04:00] You know the ones, how much will sales increase year over year? What categories will underperform or overperform, all the usual suspects? No, we like to take a different approach and leverage some real world experts that have read the pulse of both retailers and consumers.

[00:04:14] So to help us unwrap this holiday special extravaganza. We brought in two experts on the topic, Roshan Jhunja, head of retail at Square joins us today hot off the heels of releasing Square, and AfterPay's festive forecast report, Roshan will be sharing many facts and stats from that extensive merchant and consumer survey.

[00:04:33] Welcome Roshan.

[00:04:34] Roshan Jhunja: Thank you, Ricardo Casey. Glad to be here.

[00:04:36] Casey Golden: And since it's the season of Gift Giving, we've also brought in Bridget Johns, co-founder of To and From a Premium Multi-brand marketplace for every occasion guest to share interesting facts and figures about how people are shopping, why they're shopping, and. What they're shopping for. As we learn why To and From's mission is to change how we feel about gift [00:05:00] giving and receiving.

[00:05:01] Welcome Bridget.

[00:05:02] Bridget Johns: thanks so much for having.

[00:05:04] Ricardo Belmar: let's go to you first. We're gonna talk a lot about your Festive Forecast report in this episode because we're all about the data on this show. So why don't you start us off by telling us a little bit about your background and what you do at Square and Afterpay, and explain to us the methodology in the survey and you know, who are the respondents?

[00:05:22] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah. Glad to do that. So just to recap, square started with a purpose, which was to enable any individual or business to participate in the economy. And today,

[00:05:31] 13 years after that,

[00:05:31] founding, we've got a full ecosystem of commerce solutions from software to hardware, enabling merchants of every size type and complexity to run their business on Square.

[00:05:39] That includes retailers, restaurants, beauty, personal care. And so my role at Square is looking after the retail vertical. So in particular, I'm the head of retail at Square. I've been at the company for six years. Before this I was largely in financial services, but kind of was interested in the mission and purpose of Square, and that's what sort of brought me and keeps me and, and my goal.

[00:05:59] And I'm, I'm, you know, [00:06:00] the thing that keeps me excited and, and eager to get going every day is to empower retailers of all sizes to. By leveraging Square's platform. So I over oversee all the aspects of the vertical and we were really looking to create the best possible experience for retailers who run their businesses on square. terms of the methodology of this survey you know, like any good survey, it's important to make sure you've got a broad cross section. So we looked at both the consumer side 1000 consumers in the US as well as the seller side. So on the consumers, you know, we surveyed at the beginning of September, we made sure that we got equal gender representation.

[00:06:33] We made sure that it was a broad demographic from, you know, the, the different regions in the us, northwest south, the Midwest, and, and. generationally, because that's increasingly an important access to look at. We made sure to include gen Z and millennials. In fact, you know, those kind of younger cohorts made up about 40% of the survey, but we also heard from Gen X, baby boomers and the postwar generation.

[00:06:55] And so, you know, by doing so, we were able to draw out some meaningful distinctions between [00:07:00] how those different consumers operate. And then lastly, we also made sure to, to cover the seller side of the story. So we surveyed almost 600 square sellers in the us you know, of varying sizes, including some larger sellers.

[00:07:11] And you know, one of the things that we did here was we looked year over year factoring, you know, some data that we have both on the square and after pay side. And yeah, eager to get into some of the the.

[00:07:21] Ricardo Belmar: All right, fantastic. I'm looking forward to that. So Bridget, let's have you jump in here. You know, we've known each other for a long time now, but for listeners, why don't you tell us your background and what did you, and why did you get into the, the gifting side of the business and what makes gifting such a challenge?

[00:07:34] And of course, what makes to and from unique.

[00:07:37] Bridget Johns: Yeah. Thank you so much for asking. I've been in retail my entire life. I grew up on a farm and my first retail business was a corn stand when I was 10 years old. I moved on to more exciting retail. Worked for many years for brands like Ralph Lauren Home Collection, Tiffany and Co L'Oreal. And for the last 12 years as you know, Ricardo, I worked for Retail Next, which is an analytics company based in Silicon Valley, really focused [00:08:00] on brick and mortar data, data gathering of, of customer.

[00:08:04] Action inside of brick and mortar stores. So as I started thinking about how I wanted to take my two sets of experience and bring them together to start my own company, gifting was obvious. It's my love language. It always has been. And I see a lot of pain points in today's gifting in the gifting world.

[00:08:22] So those sort of break down into three categories that I talk about as discovery. It's hard for people to find good gifts. If you go to large marketplaces and you search for something, you are probably gonna be disappointed in those search results. there are No tools really for modern gifting.

[00:08:45] On the digital side when you get outside of those large marketplaces. So there aren't things like widely adopted universal registry. There isn't a data set that really allows. Somebody to understand a consumer and their [00:09:00] preferences when it comes to when it comes to the people that are they're buying for and the occasions they're buying for them in their life.

[00:09:06] And the third thing is, as Casey talked about, you know, 15.2 billion in returns of gifts, people don't like the gifts that they're getting. So our idea. That there is enough data in the market and that people will tell you about what they actually want as gifts, that if you bring it together intelligently and layer it in with some really good curation and some really awesome tools that help to just manage the day to day gifting that you can deliver a much better experience for consumers.

[00:09:37] So that's what we're building at, to and from.

[00:09:40] Casey Golden: It's great and it is all about consumers. So let's talk about the first step to any gift giving inspiration, stocking up on ideas and making a list. This is really where I see an opportunity for retailers to win customers over through product discovery. Where are shoppers getting their inspiration from holiday purchases?

[00:09:59] Bridget?

[00:09:59] Bridget Johns: That is [00:10:00] a great question and I think Roan will probably say the same. They get through inspiration everywhere and sometimes in the most unusual places. I have a 10 year old son who is a hockey player in a hockey mom's group on Facebook, and you would be shocked to see how much conversation is about hockey related.

[00:10:21] For their hockey players. So I think, and it's like one of the things that we do at to and from is we get very precise about the occasion, the relationship, and the interests of the people who you're buying for so that you can get very targeted in really good gift recommendations.

[00:10:38] Casey Golden: Roshan, your report has some interesting stats on this topic. What did your surveyed customers say about how they come up with their gift ideas?

[00:10:46] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah, well, you know, picking up directly from what Bridget was touching on earlier family and friends, right. So, you know, what we found was that about. 43% of consumers are looking to family and friends of their top sources of inspiration. You know, and I'm sure that includes, you know, [00:11:00] Facebook forums and whatnot that that hockey thing resonated.

[00:11:03] My father-in-law is an avid Giants fan. And you know if I could find the right place to source more giants gifts for him, I absolutely would. I think I've kind of exhausted what's out there. But for sure family and friends followed by being in. And you know, this is where retailers really get a chance to cultivate some of the in-store experience and make sure that it's a great place to discover new products.

[00:11:22] And then, you know,

[00:11:23] following along after that would be websites, blogs, and forums. And so, You know, obviously social media's gotten a lot better with targeting. You know, a lot of folks in their, you know, as they're scrolling their feeds are gonna you know, be presented with lots of ideas there.

[00:11:36] But one thing that I will mention that, that I found relevant is that, you know, almost 20% of shoppers really are preferring products that are sustainable or ethical. So that's a pretty important trend, and one by the way that I expect to continue, especially as you know, gen Z continues to come into more purchasing power and makes up a larger portion of the consumer base.

[00:11:55] Casey Golden: Speaking of Mary Zema and Mary Exes, I think there's a bit . Our, our, our [00:12:00] target markets have actually quite changed recently. So I heard Gen Xers spend the most money on gifts and they feel like they receive the worst gifts with 44% of them disliking what they receive. So since they're impossible to please end up the forgotten generation, let's just talk about Mary Zema and Gen in Gen Z, , because this is very interesting as like a prime.

[00:12:24] Consumer target for a lot of retailers right now is, is trying to capture those eyeballs.

[00:12:29] Ricardo Belmar: And I think as I looked through the festive forecast report, one of the things I took away is it seems like one of the indicators that younger shoppers, let's say Gen Z and millennials, are really looking to create something meaningful with gift giving versus just finding something they think will be a super interesting gift or, or item that the other person wants, which I think tends to be the way Gen Xers look, look at that concept. So I'm, I'm curious lemme go to you first. I, are you seeing trends like that reflected in your data at, to and from?

[00:12:59] Bridget Johns: [00:13:00] Yeah, a hundred percent. So we have deeply attributed all of the products that are on our, on our platform. So we have 5,000 products across 500 brands, and each of those products is attributed for all the normal things that you would expect, like size and function and form, and. All those things, but also we have attributed across values that people care about.

[00:13:21] So you're able to, you know, search for black own businesses or female female owned companies, or sustainable, or B corporation or whatever it is. And what we see is that not only do we overindex on search. With those attributes. So people are very highly interested in gifts that have a social tag attached to them, as Roan was saying before.

[00:13:46] So we're definitely seeing that. But then we also see that those products lead to when you can find the product that has that social attribute, it leads to higher conversion. So, not only are people searching them, but they're also buying [00:14:00] and we see that across Across all of our demographics. So as a proud Gen Xer gen Xers also I think are interested in finding those right those right products that match the values of themselves or for someone else.

[00:14:14] As someone once told me, he said, you know, I might know, not know what my girlfriend would like for her birthday, but I know what she's interested in. Like I know the social causes she's interested in. So it becomes this trigger that can actually help. The gift making decision, the decision making around gifting.

[00:14:32] Ricardo Belmar: Okay. That's super interesting. So, Roshan, what, what else can you tell us from the findings in the report about these generational differences in shopping and are, are there different expectations from in each demographic?

[00:14:47] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah. You know it's interesting because this is where a bunch of elements in the kind of the buyer journey may start to differ. I think, you know social media that I touched on earlier is certainly a more important influence for some of the, [00:15:00] the younger generations. I think 25% of shoppers, for example would spot gift ideas on Facebook or I.

[00:15:05] I also think that it changes a little bit of the the buying timeline, whereas older generations are likely to get more of their holidays shopping earlier. We do have you know an emphasis on the younger generations trying to, and maybe waiting more towards promotional periods and, and sometimes even you know, pushing it right up until the holidays.

[00:15:23] And so I do think that there's also a difference. Motivations, whereas older generations focus on value and making sure that the gifts are kinda targeted. There's more of an emphasis on the emotion from younger generations and kinda, you know the feelings that you know, they're creating meaningful connection.

[00:15:39] And you know there's a, a sentimentality that's attached to.

[00:15:42] Casey Golden: I like to hear that. So customers will look to family and friends for recommendations and in-store experiences and environments provide these high impact results for gift ideas. Sales may spur to get them to spend. Bridget, I can imagine disseminating customer behavior [00:16:00] during this season is difficult, and you mentioned that you have a lot of different types of tags and, and the way that you're indexing your catalogs and products.

[00:16:09] How do you look at your assortment planning and really build those recommendation builders when it's not on the customer shopping, but who the customer's shopping for? I can imagine it's much more complex.

[00:16:23] Bridget Johns: It's very complex and I think it's one of the reasons that gifting fails so often on the regular digital commerce experience. Like you don't have those normal tags that you would have in your regular life. Like we don't go shopping with our husbands anymore, like you. Walk around the mall and something catches your eye and you, your husband notices that something caught your eye just doesn't happen.

[00:16:52] So we hear stories about husbands like creeping on their wives, fa Pinterest accounts, and , all of these wacky things that people do. But at the end [00:17:00] of the day, what you really need to do is you, I, well, the way we've approached it is, Assorted based on what we know as retailers. So a team of retail experts.

[00:17:10] We've lived in brand, the brand, world merchandising world. Product world, understand the, you know, brands that we wanted to start with. And then we from there we've really led with the data, like what are customers telling us? How are they experiencing the platform? What are the things that are important to them?

[00:17:29] You know, when we started, we didn't have a like mandate around values. And as we started doing a lot of consumer testing, one of the things that we heard time and time again was that consumers, as we've talked a little bit about really were leaning into the values of the brands that we were recommending.

[00:17:47] So now I think. , probably 90% of our brands have some kind of a social tag attached to them. So if a customer is really wanting to shop their values, they're able to do that. And [00:18:00] it's the beauty of a digital business is that you can react really quickly. And we can flex up and down based on what we're hearing from our consumers and what their interests are at any given.

[00:18:10] Casey Golden: And where does all of this excitement come from? You know, why are people gifting and, and how has that changed? You, your report mentioned kind of the, the purpose behind the why of this motivation for gift giving across these different demographics and the way that they look at it or feel about it.

[00:18:31] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah. You know, what I'd say here is, is just, you know, again, to revisit why people are looking forward to the holidays. You know, the, the social connection is actually right up at the top of, of motives, right? I think we, we see a lot, especially the younger generations interested to see friends and family you know, the celebratory atmosphere.

[00:18:48] And so, you know, but to lesser extent, you know, there is a, an important component of holidays that, that is really about gifting.

[00:18:56] The good news is that in my book, you know, it's actually kind of a minority [00:19:00] that's focusing on gifting because it's expected, because it's traditional. And, and what you have instead is a big focus on showing love and care, putting a smile on somebody's face, you know, the, the, the good feeling you get from giving a gift.

[00:19:12] And so these are all things that are kind of driving some of the behaviors out there. And so, you know, I think it's, it's important for retailers to consider how they can actually enable those outcomes, right? How they can Effectively cultivate their product assortment that aligns with what will make people feel good and, and make them feel like they're able to convey that love and care.

[00:19:31] Casey Golden: A hundred percent. The the why leads to the what.

[00:19:35] Ricardo Belmar: Yeah, exactly. And you know, as you, as you I hear you saying that, RO I'm, I'm thinking about the opportunity retailers have to really lean into their loyalty programs during this season to help drive some, of these gift purchases. you know, do, do you have any. Tips for retailers just based on the research findings in the study or on what you would tell 'em to do and how to leverage or how to best leverage their loyalty [00:20:00] program.

[00:20:00] Any interesting examples from some of the merchants you work with?

[00:20:03] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah. You know, that's a great question. There's a couple of high level things I think that are going on especially this year, which is, you know, obviously we've had a lot of macro things going. On with inflation you know, and you know, symmetrically what, what our report found was. Despite what's going on out there, people are still interested in spending money for the holidays.

[00:20:22] Consumers are gonna go out and the majority of them are gonna spend more. Some of them intend to spend, you know, quite a bit more. Still a very important time you know, for retailers to really think about how to reach those consumers now. But the, but the interesting aspect here is also that consumers are more than ever interested in.

[00:20:38] Given that their money is, is you know, there might, it might not buy as much as it did before, really focusing in on what's gonna be a great value. And that's not always about the dollar. It sometimes comes down to things like return policies and, you know, a bunch of other value add components that retailers can add to kind of take some of the risk outta it and, and make sure that, you know, again, dealing with some of the the unwanted gift giving you know, there's, [00:21:00] there's ways to deal with that.

[00:21:01] So, so as far as loyalty is concern I think this is a great time, especially for retailers that have oversupplied given some of the supply chain concerns and have just a lot of inventory sitting. There is a buyer out there for, for these things, right? But you may have to do a little bit more work to find them.

[00:21:17] And so I think leaning into loyalty and marketing to make sure that you're kind of targeting the right people. And, and for some retailers that means doing so in different ways. Leaning into omnichannel, leaning into, you know, social channels to promote their items is gonna be super. So here, I would say that, you know, sending out marketing messages make sure that folks are, it's not just enough to, to have the sale.

[00:21:37] People have to know about it. And, and there's, you know, a lot to choose from out there. So making sure that there's marketing messages that are promoting what's going on, keeping your brand top of mind. There was one seller that I would call out Sasha, who's the operations manager of the Chakra Shack, which is a spiritual gift shop in Laguna.

[00:21:52] They're using Square for in person online this season. They're excited about using loyalty for the first time. It's something where, you know, they are really excited to [00:22:00] see what happens with customers in terms of, you know, how motivated are they by the rewards and the discounts? How's that gonna impact the business in the long term?

[00:22:06] I really think that leaning into marketing, you know, especially with a lot of folks thinking about potential downturn next year, this is a really great time to kinda, you know focus. Refining your marketing approach because it's likely to be important for your business in the, in the coming months.

[00:22:21] Bridget Johns: Yeah, and I would just, I would just add to that, that I think when you talk about loyalty, all of the things Rashaan said a hundred percent, but you also have to think about what's the value add for your consumer. And I'm surprised, especially in the, in the digital world, how few brands offer. Gift messaging and gift wrapping.

[00:22:41] Two of the easiest things that you can do to really build loyalty for your customers and retailers, by and large fall short. Either the wrapping is terrible, there's no way to have a gift card, or it's so terrible that you wouldn't wanna use it anyhow. So just like think a little bit more [00:23:00] about what you would like as a consumer and build that into your loyalty program, I think could have a pretty tremendous impact.

[00:23:06] Casey Golden: And just to validate that I do all of my Christmas shopping at one store. Because they offer free gift wrapping, beautiful note and free shipping

[00:23:18] Ricardo Belmar: There you go.

[00:23:19] Proof

[00:23:19] Roshan Jhunja: That's amazing. I hope, I hope lots of retailers. Yeah. I hope the retailers hear

[00:23:23] that. That's loyalty. If

[00:23:24] Casey Golden: because I have a wonderful time shopping. I take it to the counter, I write my little notes and they gift wrap it and mail it out, and I'm done. And can go get a cappuccino and or a glass of wine

[00:23:37] Bridget Johns: Yeah, really.

[00:23:39] Ricardo Belmar: It's the way we all wanna shop

[00:23:40] Casey Golden: not saying where I shop .It's not for everyone.

[00:23:45] Ricardo Belmar: So I, I guess I, I want to kind of maybe switch a little bit here and talk about something, Roshan you touched on it a little bit a few moments ago, which is maybe the, in some ways the big elephant in the room for this season, which is, you know, everyone's worried about what impact of inflation may have on [00:24:00] shopping.

[00:24:00] I think you've both kind of mentioned that if, if we go by what you're seeing so far, it actually maybe doesn't seem like it's causing consumers to shop less or to buy less at least so far at this stage in the holiday season. And I wanna talk a little bit about what, what the impact of buy now pay later has on

[00:24:18] all of this , to be totally honest about it, right? Casey and I talked about this way back into our predictions episode at the start of the year, and we probably weren't the, the kindest people towards the, the category of type of payments and that, you know, our prediction was that there was gonna be a lot of consolidation in that space and that there was a risk that, you know, there may be regulators looking at what the impact on savings and consumers in general was gonna be, and I suppose you could make an argument that, you know, after pay becoming part of Square kind of speaks to that consolidation piece of it. But I think for the most part, all the other things we predicted on this one really haven't come to pass. And I think the momentum is still there behind buy now pay later.

[00:24:54] So what I wanted to get into, and, and you have some interesting data on this in, in [00:25:00] the report, Roshan, on what impact, let's maybe start with the merchant side of it, you know, does offering B NPL to consumers, but both online and in store and across channels, what impact is that having this season on consumers either, either ability to buy their propensity to want to buy from a retailer that offers it, for example, versus one that's not?

[00:25:20] Or what interesting trends are you seeing?

[00:25:22] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah, it's great. It's a great lead in to say that you know, there were some predictions about this particular service and you know, looking at how it's been faring, I think is honestly, you know, the most important. And that is It's only increasing in terms of its importance for consumers, you know, and I think most online shoppers you know, have heard about it at this point.

[00:25:40] And increasing more online shoppers this year, plan to use by now, later compared to last year from the, from the seller's standpoint from people that are offering this as a service. A hundred percent. Believe that it's going to help them with the, the younger demographics. So like the Gen Z you know, who are more, have a higher propensity to use by now, pay later.

[00:25:57] You know, those are consumers that are citing an [00:26:00] interest in budgeting and immediacy, right? So, so wanting to actually have the item in hand at the moment. So being able to reach newer shoppers and I. We have seen this with more traction online for sure. But a lot of in-store retailers, what they're finding is that the need to have a coherent experience, you know, across channels.

[00:26:16] This is the kind promise of omnichannel and always has been, is that, you know, your, and your ability to transact. Extends across all the various, you know, in-store, omnichannel, social, you meet your customer where they're in a consistent way. They know what to expect from you. And so I think that's a really important translation to make sure that, you know, those customers that maybe found you online or discovered you on social you know, have the same experience when they come to visit your store.

[00:26:39] And, and that's just, you know, a powerful consistency and, and coherence kinda. But in terms of discovery a hundred percent. You know, there's a, there's a really impactful, you know, for, for the fa the fans of B now pay later who are looking to discover more sellers. I think there's several tools including you know, with Square and Afterpay, where you can actually use buy now

[00:26:58] after pay supporting sellers [00:27:00] to kind of filter and discover who else out there might be able to support you with this really powerful buying mechanism.

[00:27:07] You know, I think the stats are, are pretty telling here. It did start in Australia there, you know, there was you know, it skyrocketed in terms of its penetration both for consumers and, and of course for sellers. And in the US it is continuing to take off. We have now one in eight shoppers that would sign up for a buy now pay later service.

[00:27:23] Like I said earlier, you know, it's trending up in terms of the number of online shoppers planning to use buy now, pay later, like after pay. So again, it's it's, it's here. I think the inflation inflationary impacts are an extra tailwind because you know, more people are looking to smooth the, the impact of their purchases and, and it helps a lot with budget planning.

[00:27:40] Ricardo Belmar: Let's move into, talking about sales channels , one of the biggest recent debates going on in, the media about retail has to do with e-commerce, of course, since the pandemic taking over in store shopping is, is it true, is it not true? What, what's happened with social commerce? How does this all compare to the numbers of [00:28:00] people shopping in store versus these other digital channels and, and which one is likely to come out on top as the dominant format?

[00:28:07] Which in some ways, I think a lot of times what consumers want gets lost in the noise. When we read about all this, all these reports in the media. So Roshan lemme start with you on this one. You know, given that this popular narrative right now for so long, and again, because of the pandemic, is that e-commerce was just gonna leapfrog all this growth.

[00:28:25] Massive growth stores would close and suffer. Of course, it turns out that didn't happen. consumers are still going to stores and I think we're seeing in, in a surge now in consumers wanting to. In store and get that experience. you had some interesting in the surveys to both consumers, I think, and to your, your merchants about this.

[00:28:41] What, what can you tell us and about what's happening here?

[00:28:44] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah, I think you know, some of what we found in the survey was that Americans are most likely to get their gifts at online marketplace. You know, followed by discount department stores and superstores. One of the interesting things about this point you made about online is that in fact what we saw post pandemic was a lot of folks [00:29:00] interested to go back and reconnect with that in-store shopping experience.

[00:29:03] And so, you know, while there was a very pronounced immediate shift when folks had no other option, we definitely saw it kinda rebound back to a place where people. Still value in store. Now, one of the most exciting trends to me personally is experiential retail, where, you know, interestingly from a staffing perspective, we've found that as brick and mortar retailers are adding staff to with in buyers to stores.

[00:29:26] Who they're adding is actually, you know, baristas and, and more of this experiential aspect of, you know, coffee with your, your retail purchase. I know Casey values that, especially when she's done wrapping things up. You know, but, but it's kind of the, the retail store, the, the brick and mortar retail store as like a, a core component of your your neighborhood and your c.

[00:29:46] And being a destination for folks you know, to get more than just a product. You know, also, you know, for bookstores doing book signings or, or music or, or coffee shops. And so I think that's in my mind one of the more powerful drivers of the channel mix is in store for discovery, [00:30:00] but also for experience.

[00:30:01] But in terms of, you know, the, the, the buyer journey, this is an interesting one. It's not as cut and dry. You, you, you alluded to, you know, there's a lot of predictions out there in the media. It's not as cut and dry as you know, Hey, all, every, you know, online's gonna eat everything or social's gonna eat everything.

[00:30:15] I think what we see instead is that discovery may happen in one place and that sometimes can be like social media More information often happens with, you know, researching, you know, product listings, maybe going in store to touch and feel and try something out, and the actual purchase may happen at yet a later time, whether that's via, you know, a conversational commerce with you know, the seller, like texting them, you know, what, I actually did decide to buy that thing.

[00:30:38] Or, you know, maybe hitting the website. And so really it kind of this is, you know, the emergent omnichannel nature of, of shopping, right? It's kinda like your discovery to your. Finding more information to your ultimate purchase, and then even your return may all be at different places and at different times.

[00:30:54] And so that's that kinda you know, in some senses muddies the waters, but but also make it more important to have a, [00:31:00] a coherent strategy of a presence across all the, your buyers wanted to. But in terms of the. The other point you raised on which social platform is it gonna be and, you know what's kind of most compelling?

[00:31:12] I don't think that that there is a, a right answer to it. I think it has a lot to do with generational preference. I think there's always gonna be some social media platform or right around the corner, many of whom are trying to keep people on the platform. And by this I mean, if you are a retail seller one of the things that we're always encouraging folks to do is try to the grave you can to drive that purchase back to your site.

[00:31:33] And the reason for this, Your ability to kind of have the customer information and to you know, be able to market to them is, is greatly diminished if, if it's, you know, entirely transacting outside of you know on a different e-commerce property. Right? And so there's also, there's a hundred percent powerful convenience, but this is where.

[00:31:51] Being very deliberate about your strategy. Which products are you going to sell, and which channels and which marketplaces, and what, how then will you draw your [00:32:00] consumer back to learn more about your full assortment in, you know, on your website or in your store? I think that's an increasingly important strategy for, for all retailers to think about.

[00:32:08] Casey Golden: are you seeing any trends around that buy online, pickup in store? I mean, I haven't had a lot of success with. That personally, but I know that it's been had huge growth over the, the pandemic and if it's carrying on here through holiday season.

[00:32:22] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah, I think it's one of these things that along with the shift to e-commerce, the, the buy line pickup in store, buy. Buy online and return in store as well are here to stay. I don't think again that they're at the levels of engagement when there was no other option. But for sure we see increasingly retailers asking for ways to support this and looking for solutions that help them support you know, that flexibility of buy online and, and, and coming back to.

[00:32:46] Casey Golden: I found it quite interesting that the report found that like 53% of customers are planning to purchase gifts online compared to in-store. But it still sounds like. E-commerce matters just as much as in store and you almost can't [00:33:00] operate one without the other. How do you see this with your reports and then just experience with Square being able to understand how that customer's buying online and in store.

[00:33:09] Is there like certain KPIs that this is increasing, that it's 50 50? Is it 30%? Just kind of curious what, what that looks like from an omnichannel perspective.

[00:33:19] With Square you have a really unique visibility to how much omnichannel business is driving each other.

[00:33:26] Being able to track that customer from in-store purchases, online purchases. What does it look like? in the past has been kind of like a black hole and we just make assumptions. But you have a unique perspective.

[00:33:38] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah. So what I would say here is I find that this varies a lot by the types of seller you know, with with our Square for retail offering, we tend to concentrate a lot on apparel. Where, where we see that a lot of discovery is happening online. We were just talking to hot Sam in Detroit.

[00:33:51] A week or two ago, and they were describing how discovery online is a really important component of the, the buyer journey, but ultimately coming into the store [00:34:00] to engage with staff, to, to finalize that purchase, make sure that the, the fitting and whatnot is right. And, and that experience will be different for something that's a little bit more commoditized and not as bespoke.

[00:34:10] You know, that requires kinda the assistance of an in store person. And so something like electronics or home goods, what we find is that there's a lot of folks who are willing to transact online. So the answer unfortunately isn't you know, as straightforward, although I, I will say that I, you know, they continue to be equally important channels.

[00:34:27] You know, like you said before, you've got 53% of consumers planning to purchase. Gifts online compared to in store, that that's kinda an equal mix. And so really it, it goes back to that omnichannel journey that I mentioned where I think consumers really want a blend of online and in person experiences so they can purchase the way they want depending on what its, and you know, what they need in that moment.

[00:34:47] Ricardo Belmar: So Bridget, obviously to and from focuses on the e-commerce experience and as you told us at, at the beginning of our session that, you know, you were looking to change things around [00:35:00] on, on solving discovery issues and gifting. , I'm sure you are now, you know, obviously well into the holiday season, seeing a increase in site visits and searches, et cetera.

[00:35:09] What, what can you tell us about some of the unique trends you're seeing there? And I'm curious. How are consumers finding your site when they start their search for.

[00:35:18] Bridget Johns: Yeah, so I think there are a few things that are important. I, you know, said before that you have to be where the consumer is. And for us that means being very precise about how we communicate to them. So we've talked a little bit about how we attribute and about how we organize our products to be able to.

[00:35:35] Really dial into the occasion and the relationship and the preferences of the person receiving the gift. So because we've built our system to because we've built to and from, to allow for that, it allows us to be very precise in our marketing so we can very easily. Create a blog post about, you know, my sister who lives in a mid-century modern house who loves gardening.

[00:35:58] So you can bring these [00:36:00] like disparate attributes together and create a very quickly create a list of gifts that will be appropriate for that person. And what that allows us to do is it allows us to meet the customer where they, where they are. To very specific Facebook group or whether it's a creator that's focused on a particular segment or topic or whatever it is.

[00:36:20] And we've had a lot of success just being able to, to be so precise with the, the data and the assortment.

[00:36:26] Ricardo Belmar: Okay, so you really do kind, kind of play on the whole discovery piece by creating these kind of interesting, inspirational moments of, of discovery. I, I would describe,

[00:36:36] Bridget Johns: Yeah, and we do that across lots of different channels because customers are everywhere. So, you know, for one particular customer it might be a Facebook group for another customer, it might be a creator that's focused on gift wrapping and really like dialing into their audience and the. The types of people who like to follow their content, whatever it is.

[00:36:55] So it's been like a really, a really interesting journey for me having lived my whole life in brick and [00:37:00] mortar to start being able to really dial into these little micro moments in a impactful way.

[00:37:06] Ricardo Belmar: So Roshan mentioned this or touched on a little bit earlier and some of the sources of inspiration, I mentioned social media and that always makes me think about social commerce in general. So I, I'm curious, Bridget, what opportunity you see in the social commerce space in particular what you're doing at, to and from.

[00:37:24] Bridget Johns: Yeah, I mean, it's been obviously a big important conversation for us, and I think there is so, so much interesting retail happening in the social commerce space, having, you know, Having studied retail for, you know, all of my career as, you know, I think being able to tap into that's critically important because it's such an important place for consumers and where they are and what they expect.

[00:37:48] What we've done for this holiday season is we've allowed, we're allowing a beset of creators to create these custom gift lists that then they can kind of manage and share to their audience. So they can be pro, [00:38:00] you know, products from our assortment, but they can also be products that they. Think are interesting as gifts and we've given them some really good tools and the feedback has been very good so far.

[00:38:10] We'll see through the holiday. Like I said, it's just a test we just launched in June, so we, you know, are still learning along the way. But we think

[00:38:17] that, you know, giving tools to creators and, you know, having more visibility for social commerce, we think is important and will continue to be, you know, a growth area over time.

[00:38:27] Ricardo Belmar: Yeah, I have to agree with that as a, as a growth area for.

[00:38:30] Bridget Johns: Yeah,

[00:38:31] Ricardo Belmar: so makes me think, you know, timing is everything. and so back in holiday 2020, I, I wrote an article for the Robin Report about the death of Black Friday. And yes, it was meant to shock readers quite a bit. but my point was that Black Friday didn't really need to live on the way we're all used to thinking of it given how consumers started shopping so much earlier in the season, and frankly, how that actually helps retailers manage their inventory better and, and their pricing and discount structure for the season, particularly when we keep running [00:39:00] into these never ending supply chain challenges.

[00:39:02] Roha, let me ask you, I mean, one of the findings I noted in the report where that. Younger generations might kind of spring into action with Black Friday and, and, and maybe Cyber Monday as well and get more shopping done. Whereas maybe, you know, gen Xer is like myself and maybe older generations, we might move a little slower and leave the holiday shopping for later and, and end up, you know, doing a lot more of that shopping in December.

[00:39:27] Is there really a difference in timing for when each generation starts shopping from the findings you have and, and how should retailers react to thi

[00:39:35] Roshan Jhunja: s?

[00:39:35] Yeah, it's a, it's a great question on the timing. You know, for a while I think we all know that there was a bit of concern that the, the windows kept stretching earlier and, and, you know, are we gonna eat Thanksgiving dinners or are we just gonna go straight to the stores that day? And so I think what's interesting here is that, you know, we know that three quarters of Americans are gonna have their holiday shopping.

[00:39:53] By December 1st. And so there's, it's more crucial than ever to kind of get started. Here we are in November you know, almost [00:40:00] halfway through it. And you know, I think Casey said she was already done. So you know, there's definitely evidence for, for starting earlier. That's not to say that folks won't be purchasing later in the season.

[00:40:08] We do know that one in six are gonna start purchasing in earlier December, but by the time you get to mid-December, it's only one in 12. One of the ways to think about this is it makes it crucial to start your marketing as early as possible and to, to target on the channels that you think are important to get visibility out there.

[00:40:25] But also it all is not lost, right? Black Friday, I think the term originated from, you know, retailers, you know, that might be in the red all year. Finally get into the black as they get into the holiday season. And so, you know, all is not lost if you kind of miss those early windows. I think still in December what you get is a lot of last minute shopping folks are, are still, like I said, there's a lot of consumer purchasing power out there.

[00:40:45] So there's still a big windows opportunity to think about, you know, what inventory you have that you were interested in moving during the holiday season. And again, just continue to lean into marketing and discounting and make sure that you can reach those consumers that are trying to finish up their.

[00:40:59] Casey Golden: said that [00:41:00] we weren't gonna focus on like the typical holiday retail trends that everybody else talks about. But what can I say? Like, show me the money we have to say a little bit before we close on what sales expectations are. Right. Ro in the report it says that 44% of retailers expect sales to grow this season.

[00:41:19] Another 20% expect everything to remain pretty flat. Putting you on the spot here, how much of this do you think is due to inflation prices? Especially considering the expectations of heavy discounting? What's, what's kind of your prediction here?

[00:41:35] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah, you know, It's, it's a good thing. You know, you let in with a follow of the money. Best I can tell folks are still spending and, and it's surprising in some ways because, you know, there is a lot going on. There's a lot of uncertainty and turbin in the world, but consumers are still spending.

[00:41:49] And so really what I think, you know, in terms of retailers, they're kind of keyed into this and they know that you know, that there's still you know, transactions that folks are, are interested in. Some of the stats that we cited [00:42:00] earlier where there are significant portions of the consumer base that is going to spend more than last year.

[00:42:04] Some of them ex expect to spend quite a bit more. You know, that right there is your inflationary answer. Even though those dollars are buying less, they're going to spend more of those dollars to make sure they can get the gifting done that they wanna do. And so, you know, yes, there's expectations in heavy discounting.

[00:42:19] I would expect that to skew more towards the larger retailers. We've all seen headlines, whether it be Target, and you know you know, Some of the other folks that really leaned heavily into supply chain by overstocking. But I would say for smaller retailers, I don't know that there's gonna be as aggressive ing.

[00:42:34] We do know that, you know, most folks in order to be moved by a discount, it needs to be 20% or more right. For them to even consider that changing their behavior. But here I would expect that I expect that retailers are still gonna see a lot of strong purchasing this holiday season.

[00:42:48] Casey Golden: Bridget, I'm not gonna let you escape this one either. What is your overall hot take on sales this season? I come from a world of luxury, so there's no discounts on designer handbags. They're under the trees , [00:43:00] but.

[00:43:03] Bridget Johns: Yeah, I think it's, it's interesting. I mean, I have been really impressed with actually the transparency from brands particularly the direct to consumer brands where they have. Not started their discounting, but they have told you they're going to start it. So you get an email that says, our friends and family or our Black Friday is going to start on this day, sign up to be on the list.

[00:43:25] So it automatically puts it in your mind and you're like, okay. Like I, to me, that is one of the biggest shifts in email marketing. I haven't seen it and. Past years where you're getting like proactive notifications that the, you always know the sale is coming, but for D to C brands to be like, okay, next Friday we're gonna have 20% off, so be ready, or, you know, get early on the list.

[00:43:47] I think it's super interesting this season. And I, I agree with Roshan. I like, I think it's going to be like flat to up. I don't think it's gonna be down.

[00:43:56] Ricardo Belmar: Okay. I think everyone will be happy to hear

[00:43:59] Bridget Johns: I [00:44:00] also don't, I also don't, but I also don't think it's gonna feel like a win

[00:44:03] because I think retailers are gonna have to work so hard to get that flat up that it's gonna feel very painful.

[00:44:11] Casey Golden: Very painful. I mean, we're not really used to this holiday rush. Right. And if they're. They're budgeting their staff and increasing their budgets on the experiential associates. In moments like baristas rather than store staff. I think we can expect that there's gonna be some longer lines. Longer hours, rather than hiring more staff.

[00:44:30] Everybody's just gonna be working longer, so, Take it easy on everybody working in

[00:44:35] stores this season. Be kind, find your patience. Bring your own hot cocoa

[00:44:42] Ricardo Belmar: That's

[00:44:42] right.

[00:44:42] Casey Golden: if you have to.

[00:44:43] Ricardo Belmar: telling stat, maybe what we're all gonna look at after the season is what was the margin pressure for retailers? So wherever the sales end up, I, I think even if we all say it's flat to up how, much of those dollars, you know, translated into [00:45:00] margin for retail, I think that's gonna be the, the big question.

[00:45:02] So, to close this out today, Roshan, If you could leave our retailers retailing listeners your top holiday tip, what would it be.

[00:45:11] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah, look a lot of what we covered today, including omnichannel and wanting to meet buyers where they are as well as making sure that you're leveraging your discounting. I think you really have to lean into the data. Here the top tip I have is to make sure that your inventory management system, your, your catalog management is up to date.

[00:45:29] You can lean heavily into those reports, right? So, you know, one of the things that Square's been doing to empower retailers is to make sure that we allow you to have insights into your data where, you know, to your point on margins, right, and your costs are good, sold. But also, you know, what's selling, you know, what are your velocities like, and, and what should you do as a result?

[00:45:43] And maybe the things that are moving less quickly need more aggressive discounting. So I would say that the, the more you can leverage digitizing your catalog and inventory information, the less, like the more able you are to sell effectively online. The less likely you are to run out of inventory unexpectedly, right?

[00:45:58] And, and those dreaded outta stock [00:46:00] moments. And most importantly, you can leverage that reporting. You can learn from what you're, if you've been doing this for a year, you can learn from last year to project, you know, how you need to run this holiday season. Or you can leverage what's happening now to predict the future.

[00:46:11] And so I would say really emphasize leaning on your, your digital systems to kinda power you through this holiday.

[00:46:18] Casey Golden: So to bring us back to the present. Pun intended. Bridget for everyone starting to shop. I mean, you've got quite a special destination for gifting at to and from, but what are the hottest items under the tree this season? What does everybody want? What are people buying?

[00:46:35] Bridget Johns: Yeah, I mean, I don't know if I have like the hot take. This is the gift because we're all about that personalized gift that's very specific to you. But we do see gifting breaking down into three very distinct categories. Val values led not value, but values led gifting. So what is important to the person you're gifting for?

[00:46:56] I think the second area that we haven't really talked about, but I think is [00:47:00] very important, and it's. Been a bit of a trick I think from retailers is personalization. Cause you can't return something that's personalized. So I think like the personalization has been very key in finding ways to make those gifts feel even more special.

[00:47:16] And then the third trend that we're seeing are gifts that really help you spend time together as a family. I think that's something that has continued post covid. Like people have learned that they actually like spending time with their family. And I think that trend.

[00:47:30] Actually continues. Like I think that's not something that has gone away.

[00:47:34] So I would say those are the three areas. And then, you know, if you're a mid-century modern lover who, you know, likes gardening, you're gonna get something very different than the hockey mom.

[00:47:45] Ricardo Belmar: That's very true. Very true. Well, Bridget, Roshan, this has been a fantastic discussion. We can't thank you enough for joining us today for our holiday shopping special episode. We covered so much ground. I can't believe how time has run out on us so [00:48:00] quickly.

[00:48:00] Roshan Jhunja: Yeah, I had a fantastic time chatting with you all. Thanks for having me on.

[00:48:04] Bridget Johns: Yeah, I really enjoyed it, so it was a lot of fun.

[00:48:06] Casey Golden: Thank you both for joining us. This show is a wrap

[00:48:10] Closing Wishes

[00:48:10] Casey Golden: wrapping up this holiday special edition retail razor show and wishing our guests and listeners a very merry holiday. We hope you slay your sales targets and delight your customers this festive season.

[00:48:22] Show Close

[00:48:22] Casey Golden: We hope you enjoyed our show and we can't ask you enough to please give us a five star rating and review on apple podcast to help us grow and bring you more great episodes. If you don't wanna miss a minute of what's next, be sure to smash that subscribe button in your favorite podcast player. And don't forget to check out our show notes for handy links and more deets. I'm your host, Casey Golden.

[00:48:54] Ricardo Belmar: And if you'd like to learn more about the two of us, follow us on Twitter at Casey c golden and Ricardo underscore [00:49:00] Belmar, or find us on LinkedIn. Be sure to follow the show on LinkedIn and Twitter at retail razor. Plus our YouTube channel for videos of each episode and bonus content. I'm your host, Ricardo Belmar.

[00:49:10] Casey Golden: Thanks for joining us.

[00:49:11] Ricardo Belmar: And remember, there's never been a better time to be in retail. If you cut through the clutter until next time, this is the retail razor show.