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India

• Production: Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) reports a production of 314 lakh tonnes with an expected addition of 56 lakh tonnes. The total production for 2023/24 is projected at 320 lakh tonnes.
• Exports and Domestic Use: ISMA has proposed exporting 20 lakh tonnes to manage surplus and support ethanol blending programs. Domestic consumption is pegged at 285 lakh tonnes.
• Risks: Pest infestation damaging crops, with the Bhartiya Kisan Union voicing concerns. Additionally, illegal sugar exports to Bangladesh have been seized, highlighting regulatory challenges.

European Union

• Production: Farmers in the EU are planting more sugar beets due to high sugar prices. However, excessive rainfall and disease risks could impact yields.
• Specific Risks: In France, delayed planting and disease risks from aphids are major concerns. Germany faces similar issues with wet conditions delaying planting.
• Poland: Expects a 2.5% increase in sugar beet area to 272,000 hectares with favorable conditions for cultivation.

Kazakhstan

• Stocks and Imports: Holds 136,000 tons of sugar with an import quota for 120,000 tons of Russian sugar. Total supply meets about half of the annual need.
• Export Ban: Kazakhstan has implemented a temporary export ban on sugar until August 2024 to stabilize local markets.

Thailand

• Production Outlook: The USDA anticipates sugar output to rise by 16% to 10.2 million tonnes in 2024/25, following a decline of 20% to 8.8 million tonnes in the current year.
• Risks: Severe heat impacting young cane crops, with little rain forecasted, could reduce yields significantly.

Brazil

• Production: Expected to remain stable around 41-42 million metric tons of sugar, despite challenges in sugarcane production due to environmental factors.
• Market Influence: Brazil's large share in global sugar exports influences pricing and market dynamics significantly.

Australia

• Production Stability: Generally stable production with favorable growing conditions for sugarcane.
• Risks: Potential environmental impacts such as cyclones or droughts could pose risks to production levels.

China

• Regional Production Variance: Regions like Guangxi show a decreasing trend in crop health, potentially reducing yields, while Yunnan shows healthier crops, suggesting better yields.

Pricing - Sugar

Last weeks sugar pricing dynamics were mixed due to various factors influencing global markets.

July NY World Sugar #11 was down by 0.06 cents (-0.31%), while August London ICE White Sugar #5 has risen by 1.40 cents (+0.24%). Estimates of Brazil’s 2024 Center-South sugar production went up to 1.2 million metric tons (MMT) from 40.45 MMT, impacting market sentiment. Also a depreciation in the Brazilian real has spurred increased export activity, further affecting prices.

Conversely, prices were supported earlier in the week by a report indicating a 1.6% year-over-year drop in India's 2023/24 sugar production to 31.4 MMT, as more mills ended their crushing season earlier than last year. Furthermore, Brazil's significant year-over-year production increase in early April and the entire previous marketing year added to the complex price movements.

Despite these influences, global production forecasts, such as the USDA's expectation of a 4.7% increase in 2023/24 global sugar production, and weather conditions like El Niño affecting yields, particularly in Thailand, continue to play critical roles in shaping the market landscape.