Jay Ulfelder is an American political scientist who is best known for his work on political forecasting, specifically on anticipating political instability around the world. Ulfelder has authored a book and several journal articles on democratization, democratic backsliding, and contentious politics. In early 2025, Ulfelder resigned from his position as program director for Harvard's Nonviolent Action Lab in protest of Harvard's incorporation of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA)'s controversial Working Definition of Antisemitism, equating many criticisms of Israel with antisemitism.