Online events (sports, music, religious services) will be the site of most innovation, but work and education will also be impacted greatly. This in turn has repercussions for lots of other domains.

Agile in 2026

Aug 20th, 2020 9m 39s

In 2026, learning, accreditation, and task completion will be vastly improved by agile provision of resources just in time. The data on us will be very fine grained. We will feel we have control over privacy, but not justifiably so. A private c

Politics and governance in 2026

Aug 13th, 2020 11m 32s

Predicting 2026 (as opposed to 2023) means moving away from solid ground, from prediction towards fiction. Here goes: A new jurisdiction will be created by 2026 to serve the interests of the largest companies in data management, straddling East

China and the goal-directed life

Aug 9th, 2020 13m 5s

Ordinary citizens in China have experienced many obstacles to peacefully planning their lives. But since the end of the Cultural Revolution, the Chinese government has provided ever more structures within which to plan for the future. It's not

The goal-directed life

Aug 5th, 2020 10m 44s

Planning is ubiquitous - for individuals, companies, and governments. Planning is easier in societies facilitating predictability. In the Western world this is done through the rule of law. The Chinese Communist Party is attempting to provide t

Science fiction and awe

Jul 21st, 2020 7m 40s

#thinkingaboutthefuture falls somewhere between two poles, the ordinary quotidian experience of planning, and the extraordinary experience of awe.

The purpose of history

Jul 16th, 2020 9m 26s

The ability to distinguish between the enduring and the transient is vital to any realistic program of social action in the present, John Tosh, in "The Pursuit of History"

Models and decentralization

Jul 13th, 2020 10m 11s

We are going through something like a paradigm shift in models, from centralized to decentralized. And not too soon. Decentralized models would help us in #thinkingaboutthefuture

"Good" models and action

Jul 8th, 2020 10m 43s

Decision-making is increasingly guided by data science. One needs good data, and a good way of combining data into a view of the world, a model of how things work. A "good" model that is fed "good" data yields "good" thinking about the future -

Patterns of arguments about the future

Jul 6th, 2020 10m 17s

Identifying the most common argument (which I use myself): there is this pattern in the past, continue it into the future ... and that's what the future will look like.

Why think about the future? Prediction and divination.

Jul 2nd, 2020 9m 1s

There is value in knowing what will happen in advance - if that is possible. But that's not the only value.

Energy and climate change 2023

Jun 22nd, 2020 12m 15s

We are going through a transition from the 20C energy system (fossil fuels, centralized) to a 21C system (renewables, decentralized). Such changes take decades, say from 1990 to 2040, just like the transition from steam engines to the electrica

Individuals 2023

Jun 13th, 2020 6m 49s

We're locked into categories defined and maintained by administrations. As categories and administrations change, so do our opinions of people around us, and so does even our sense of ourselves.

Institutions 2023

Jun 12th, 2020 11m 8s

The changes (and lack thereof) of companies, government, and international organizations. All according to the adage: institutions only ever change in order to avoid even greater change.

Finance, politics, and the economic cycle in 2023

Jun 2nd, 2020 9m 17s

A whirlwind view of finance and politics predicted for 2023 (in 9 minutes).

Transportation, work, and education in 2023

May 28th, 2020 8m 7s

Softening up of the employer-employee relationship, softening up of the school(in a building)-student relationship, slight decrease in commuting, substantial decrease in flying.

Media 2023

May 22nd, 2020 11m 51s

The term "content provider" will sound old-fashioned. The exciting new experimentation will be on the emotional registers of the active creator-consumer in an omni-medium where content and money circulate in new ways.

IT in 2023 part 2

May 20th, 2020 9m 11s

IT in 2023: better connections, AI, digital ledger technologies, and VR. Also: personal identity and avatars. And as usual: while trying hard to predict, the purpose is elsewhere, namely in exploring what the activity of thinking about the futu

IT in 2023 part 1

May 19th, 2020 7m 43s

IT in 2023 part 1, but also the main insight prompted by David Rich: the object of this experiment is to explore the value in thinking about the future BEYOND guessing correctly or incorrectly. This value could indeed be in the realm of therapy

David Rich on strategic predictions and on the purpose of thinking about the future

May 14th, 2020 19m 44s

This episode is not an 8-minute monologue but a 20-minute conversation. David Rich, who has spent many years in marketing and strategy for high-tech, talks about the practice of planning and predicting, both professionally and privately.

Health in 2023

May 11th, 2020 9m 36s

What might the impact of non-health historical strands be on on health by 2023?

Is prediction the same as thinking about the future?

May 2nd, 2020 8m 49s

In this episode I argue that we need clear terminology for thinking about the future. I use McAfee & Brynjolfsson's Machine, Platform, Crowd to tease out the difference between prediction and thinking about the future. Clarifying our terms coul

Food in 2023

Apr 27th, 2020 9m 28s

Weaving the 24 other strands into the food strand. What might food look like in 2023?

The 25 categories or strands of history, with which to weave the future

Apr 21st, 2020 9m 4s

My choice of 25 categories that are useful for thinking about the future. What would you choose?CatastrophesEconomic cyclesDemographicsPoliticsMedia: hardwareMedia: business modelsMedia: gamingEducationInstitutionsIndividualsFoodHealthWorkTrans

History of x-rays

Apr 18th, 2020 8m 20s

The last of 5 episodes on history with a view to picking 25 appropriate categories for thinking about the future. Tech, bodies, hospitals, business models, workflows, regulation. Erratum: Machinery had been ALIEN to hospitals in 1896 - I said a