0:07

Welcome to 2015 Vesters,

0:09

the

0:09

podcast that deciphers economic and

0:12

market mega trends to meet tomorrow's challenges.

0:14

I'm Coqe Bubla, I head

0:16

up economics, cross-asset and quant research

0:18

at Societation Hall. In

0:21

each episode of 2015 Vesters, I'll

0:23

investigate a key mega a trend that relates

0:26

to the economy, the planet, markets,

0:29

and you.

0:31

Everybody

0:34

look at the camera and say cheese. One,

0:37

two, three, and cheese.

0:41

Let's take another one. Two people forgot

0:43

to smile.

0:46

The number of pictures and videos of fun and

0:48

happy moments like these saved on my smartphone

0:51

and the cloud has gone through the roof.

0:53

I think I'm not far from one terabyte

0:56

of media files accumulated over the past

0:58

decade. And I'm sure I'm not the only

1:00

one. You must be very, very happy

1:02

then. Well, it's not just about quantity,

1:05

but quality.

1:06

The quantity of quality moments.

1:09

Let's

1:09

take a quick tour down memory lane.

1:12

There are pictures of my wife and me 15 years

1:14

ago, our trips around the world, our

1:17

wedding, honeymoon, happy moments spent

1:19

with the family, brothers, sisters, cousins,

1:21

in-laws, and parties with friends. In

1:24

fact, the sheer number of pictures capturing

1:27

these happy memories exploded when

1:29

we had children. Pictures

1:31

of them as toddlers, videos of them when

1:33

they first said Daddy or Mummy. The

1:36

first time they walked or rode a bicycle by

1:38

themselves, countless birthday parties,

1:41

cakes and candles. Moments

1:43

spent with the ever-growing family at

1:45

Easter, Christmas and New Year's Eve. Then

1:49

summer and winter holidays with the kids and

1:51

of course our karate gradings.

1:56

Yes, my wife and our three daughters, we

1:58

all take rati lessons.

2:00

Every Saturday morning. These

2:04

are exhausting, sweaty moments, but

2:06

happy and proud ones too. The

2:08

few occasions where I got punched in the face during

2:11

a lesson do not count obviously. Zen

2:14

kutudachi mai gedan barai.

2:16

He's out. Oops, the lesson

2:18

has started. I need to get going, otherwise

2:21

I'll have to do 20 push-ups on my knuckles.

2:24

I'm also attempting my black belt grading this year.

2:26

Wish me luck.

2:27

U.S. I'm joining Cobra

2:29

Kai, Sensei.

2:32

From group photos to selfies splattered across

2:34

social media, Instagram, Facebook, we

2:36

all want to remember, save and share

2:39

these memories frozen in time. That's

2:41

probably the reason why we have such a hard

2:43

time deleting them. We know these

2:46

moments will gradually fade away over time,

2:48

but the memory of how we felt will remain

2:51

ingrained in our hearts. But

2:53

what do all these pictures have in common? Not

2:58

always, Siri, but yes, smiles are

3:00

visual expressions of happiness. When we

3:02

feel good and want to sing like James Brown's

3:05

infectious song, I feel good. Wow,

3:09

I feel good. I

3:12

knew that I wouldn't know.

3:15

So good, so good,

3:19

I got you. Wow.

3:22

Okay,

3:22

okay, I think I got the message.

3:24

You can stop now. Sorry, I

3:26

got carried away there. The point is that

3:29

you rarely see pictures of moments where

3:31

we are sad, angry, depressed or

3:33

stressed.

3:34

They usually add up in a junk folder. The

3:37

universal symbol of happiness is indeed

3:39

the smile.

3:40

As a society, we crave more of it, and

3:42

at every corner of our lives, there is some

3:44

individual, group or entity promising

3:46

us more.

3:47

Maybe smiling should be one

3:49

of the sustainable development goals. Haha,

3:52

maybe you are raising an interesting point

3:55

about the future of happiness. In

4:00

this episode, we will explore the economics

4:02

of happiness and raise some important questions

4:05

about the drivers and measures of true

4:07

happiness in our society. Can

4:09

we decarbonize our pursuit of happiness

4:12

and should we follow in the footsteps of

4:14

Bhutan, a country in Southeast Asia,

4:16

by focusing on growing the gross national

4:19

happiness instead of GDP

4:21

and consumption? Later

4:23

on, Claudia Sennig, A well-known French

4:26

expert on happiness will help us

4:28

understand if we are selfishly putting

4:30

the happiness of our generation ahead

4:33

of that of future generations.

4:36

Let's start our investigation.

4:42

The first question we have when it comes to true

4:44

happiness is what is happiness?

4:48

It is clearly a subjective concept and varies

4:50

from one culture to the next. An idea

4:53

that has evolved over centuries.

4:55

So, is it possible to define and

4:58

measure it individually or collectively?

5:00

One could measure it by the number

5:02

of Facebook friends, the number of happy

5:04

pictures during non-carbon neutral vacations,

5:07

or the number of likes on your latest posts.

5:10

Ha,

5:10

you know me too well, Siri. Maybe

5:12

happiness should be measured by the

5:14

amount of time we spend together on

5:16

this podcast. Stop. You are going

5:18

to make me smile. Well, in an article

5:20

written for Very Well Mind, a publication

5:23

on mental health, author Candra

5:25

Cherry defines happiness in psychology

5:28

as a state of emotional well-being that a

5:30

person experiences either in

5:32

an error sense, when good things happen,

5:35

in a specific moment, or more broadly,

5:37

as a positive evaluation of one's life

5:40

and accomplishments overall.

5:41

That is, subjective well-being.

5:44

Happiness can be distinguished both from

5:46

negative emotions, such as sadness,

5:49

fear and anger,

5:50

and from other positive emotions, such

5:53

as affection, excitement and

5:55

interest. This emotion often co-occurs

5:58

with a specific facial expression. depression,

6:00

the smile.

6:01

There is indeed an entire field of research

6:04

dedicated to understanding subjective well-being.

6:07

Happy people tend to experience frequent positive

6:09

emotions

6:10

and infrequent negative emotions.

6:12

Happy people report being satisfied

6:14

with their lives.

6:16

However, pleasure does not necessarily

6:18

mean happiness.

6:19

The article goes further. It is

6:21

possible that someone could experience plenty

6:24

of negative emotions,

6:25

yet still acknowledge that the conditions

6:28

of his or her life are good.

6:30

For example, someone who volunteers

6:33

for charity may experience negative emotions,

6:35

but may also feel satisfied

6:38

with life because the work is worthwhile.

6:41

Similarly,

6:42

people who spend lots of time partying

6:45

may experience frequent momentary positive

6:47

emotions, but they may also feel

6:49

that life is empty and meaningless.

6:52

Isn't happiness just

6:54

a chemical reaction in the human brain?

6:56

The

6:56

release of happiness hormones, serotonin,

6:59

dopamine, endorphins.

7:01

This is true, but they might also

7:03

be a happiness gene.

7:05

An article on psychologytoday.com

7:08

entitled How Genes Influence Happiness

7:11

says that genes in subjective

7:13

well-being account for around 40 to 50%

7:16

of positive emotional states, and

7:18

between 30 and 40% can

7:21

be explained by the negative emotional

7:23

states of depression and anxiety. According

7:26

to this theory, positive emotions lead

7:28

people to think creatively and try

7:31

new things. As a result, happy

7:33

people can develop new ways to

7:35

approach the world, new interests, new

7:38

social relationships and even

7:40

new physical skills.

7:42

All these effects lead to positive outcomes

7:44

in people's lives. This

7:46

reminds me of the quote by Winston Churchill.

7:49

The pessimist sees difficulty

7:52

in every opportunity.

7:54

The optimist sees an opportunity

7:56

in every difficulty.

7:58

The concept of happiness. has evolved over time.

8:01

Let's get some insight from some of the greatest

8:04

minds throughout history.

8:05

Social media influencers?

8:08

No, philosophers.

8:10

And to do so, let's step away from

8:12

the digital world and visit a proper

8:15

library with real books as we

8:17

used to in the good old days. I know

8:19

a good one down the street. It's only

8:21

a five minute walk. And you know what?

8:24

There is nothing better than a bit of fresh air

8:28

and some sunshine to start the day in a good

8:30

mood. We've

8:35

arrived at the famous British Library with

8:37

over 150 million items in its collection.

8:41

Let's start with Ancient Greece, around

8:43

4th century BCE. First

8:50

up, Plato. In his

8:52

view, to achieve happiness, one should

8:54

become immune to changes in the material

8:57

world.

8:57

Plato sees societal happiness

9:00

stemming from citizens treating each

9:02

other justly and leading

9:04

virtuous lives.

9:06

So buying more stuff won't make you happy

9:09

in the long run. Now

9:10

Antisthenes, the founder of cynicism,

9:13

promoted an ascetic life, lived in

9:15

accordance with virtue, which meant

9:17

severe self-discipline and abstention

9:20

from all forms of indulgence. To

9:23

lead virtuous and thus happy lives,

9:25

one should reject any notion of happiness

9:28

involving money, power and fame.

9:31

This sounds like Buddhism where you detach

9:33

yourself from all the passions, needs

9:35

and wants of life. Indeed.

9:38

But

9:38

I'm not sure people will be willing to give up

9:40

carbon and calories intensive lifestyles

9:43

today. Epicurus,

9:45

the founder of Epicureanism, also

9:48

thought that the aim of life was to attain a

9:50

state of tranquility, ataraxia,

9:53

and freedom from fear, as well as

9:55

absence of bodily pain. Stoics

9:58

took this idea one step further.

10:00

further and

10:01

believed in the words of Epictetus that

10:04

a sage, a virtuous man or a woman

10:06

could be sick and yet happy,

10:08

in peril and yet happy, dying

10:11

and yet happy, in exile and

10:14

happy, in disgrace and happy.

10:16

Easier said than done. I

10:19

agree.

10:20

Now, in the 12th century, Al Ghazali,

10:23

a Muslim theologian and philosopher,

10:25

wrote the alchemy of happiness. He

10:28

emphasized the importance of observing

10:31

the ritual requirements of Islam, the

10:33

actions that would lead to salvation,

10:36

and the avoidance of sin. Similarly,

10:40

Santo Mas Aquinas, a

10:42

13th century philosopher and theologian

10:45

who became a doctor of the Church, thought

10:48

that perfect happiness could not be found

10:50

in any physical pleasure, worldly power,

10:52

fame or honor. Only the

10:55

union with God was the most

10:57

perfect human happiness and the

10:59

goal of human life.

11:02

Religious belief can be a powerful

11:04

driver of happiness for many humans. Absolutely.

11:08

Now let's end this review with these two last

11:10

philosophers who took a radical

11:12

view.

11:13

Arthur Schopenhauer, a 19th

11:16

century German philosopher, explained

11:18

happiness in terms of a wish that is

11:21

satisfied, which in turn gives rise

11:23

to a new wish, and the absence of

11:25

satisfaction is suffering which results

11:28

in an empty longing. And

11:30

finally, Friedrich Nietzsche, another

11:33

19th century German philosopher, thought

11:35

that making happiness one's goal

11:38

and the aim of one's existence, in

11:40

his word, makes one contemptible. That

11:43

is, deplorable. He

11:45

instead yearned for a culture that

11:47

would set higher, more difficult goals

11:49

than mere happiness. Nietzsche

11:52

wanted people, instead, to consider

11:54

the value of what is difficult. what

11:57

can only be earned through struggle,

11:59

difficulty,

12:00

and pain. In a nutshell,

12:02

what doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

12:14

That's

12:14

a good question.

12:15

A state of permanent happiness is not realistic

12:18

either, unless you're continuously being

12:20

fed morphine or are in heaven,

12:22

which by the way, is the origin of

12:25

the phrase, happily ever after, at

12:27

the end of fairy tales and children's stories.

12:30

Another conclusion from these insights over

12:33

the past 3000 years of wisdom

12:35

is that money cannot buy happiness.

12:39

But is this still the case today?

12:41

According to Britannica.com, psychologists

12:44

have arrived at several surprising conclusions

12:47

in their search for predictors of happiness.

12:49

Many of the factors that may first

12:51

come to mind do not seem to play

12:53

a major role in happiness. For example,

12:56

although people strive to acquire high paying

12:58

jobs and dream about winning the lottery,

13:01

income is not strongly correlated

13:03

with happiness.

13:04

This is what Dan Habron, philosophy professor

13:07

at the St. Louis University

13:09

confirmed in an article for the Standard Encyclopedia

13:11

of Philosophy, noting that although

13:14

wealthy people are happier than poor

13:16

people, the difference is not very large.

13:19

So much for the get rich or die trying 50

13:21

cent.

13:24

Really? All this hard work

13:26

to be part of the 2050 investors'

13:28

top team was for nothing? Of

13:30

course not, Siri.

13:31

Money does have an impact.

13:33

But the relationship is strongest among the

13:36

poorest groups and emerging countries.

13:38

Income, however, leads to smaller

13:41

and smaller gains in happiness as income

13:43

levels rise.

13:44

That's the law of diminishing return as

13:47

discussed in the known unknowns of inflation

13:49

episode. Yes, some money

13:50

can indeed help protect against

13:53

poverty induced unhappiness. Similarly,

13:56

health also plays a role in subjective

13:59

wellbeing.

14:00

But the associations are, again,

14:02

surprisingly small. Older

14:05

people with major health problems, such as

14:07

paralyzing spinal cord injuries, are

14:09

a bit less happy than uninjured people.

14:12

The

14:12

difference is not as large as some might

14:14

expect. Even people with

14:17

serious illnesses tend to report

14:19

happiness scores that are above neutral.

14:21

Humans are fascinating. Then

14:24

what is the real driver of true happiness

14:26

today? Well, Dan notes

14:28

in the same article that the factor most closely

14:31

linked to high levels of happiness

14:33

is social relationships. Like

14:36

our friendships. Yep,

14:38

like in the Spice Girls song, friendship

14:41

never ends. Research

14:43

consistently shows that people who have

14:45

strong relationships tend to report higher

14:47

levels of wellbeing. But

14:49

even more objective measures, including

14:52

the number of close friends a person has,

14:54

the number of social organizations to

14:56

which the person belongs, and the amount

14:58

of time the person spends with others,

15:01

all show small to moderate correlations

15:03

with happiness.

15:04

It is indeed the quantity of quality

15:06

relationships which matters.

15:08

Spot on, Siri. But it

15:10

gets even better. Specific

15:12

types of social relationships are

15:14

also important for subjective wellbeing. In

15:17

a research paper entitled, Get Happy,

15:20

It's Good for You,

15:21

marital status is one of the strongest

15:23

demographic predictors of happiness.

15:27

Married people consistently report higher

15:29

levels of happiness than single people,

15:31

and singles report greater happiness

15:34

than the widow, divorced or separated.

15:37

Interestingly, however,

15:39

it does not appear that marriage itself causes

15:41

higher level of subjective wellbeing. Studies

15:44

over time show that people only receive

15:46

a small boost in happiness around

15:48

the time they get married, and they quickly

15:51

adapt to baseline levels. The

15:53

differences between married and

15:55

unmarried people are due primarily to

15:57

the lasting negative effects of divorce.

16:00

and widowhood, along with selection

16:02

effects that might predispose happy

16:05

people to marry.

16:06

So, happy the ever after is not

16:09

that obvious.

16:10

An interesting article from thehealthy.com

16:13

talks about a study conducted by researchers

16:15

at the London School of Economics and Political

16:17

Science. They

16:18

asked 23,000 German

16:21

volunteers, age 17 to 85,

16:23

to rate their life satisfaction. The

16:25

study concluded

16:27

that we are happiest at two points in

16:29

our lives, not just one.

16:31

The first happiness peak begins at

16:34

age 23 and the second at age 69. This

16:39

makes a lot of sense. In

16:41

our early 20s, we are energetic

16:43

and excited for the changes that come

16:45

along with being young. New careers,

16:48

new places to travel and new people

16:50

to meet.

16:52

Meet 40s typically coincides

16:54

with the stress of kids, mortgages, school

16:57

fees. By the time we reach our 60s

16:59

and 70s, we have likely retired

17:01

and can now find the time to enjoy life

17:04

or grandkids, assuming we are healthy.

17:09

Consequently, happiness tends to follow a

17:11

U-shaped curve over an individual's lifetime,

17:14

with satisfaction reaching higher levels

17:16

during the extremes of the study's range

17:19

and swinging down with middle age.

17:21

So is anybody really happy on

17:23

Earth? Well, the

17:25

World Happiness Report determines the

17:27

world's happiest countries by

17:29

using the Gallup polling data from 149 countries.

17:33

It assesses GDP, social

17:35

supports, healthy life expectancy,

17:38

freedom to make your own life choices, generosity

17:41

of the general population, and perceptions

17:44

of internal and external corruption levels.

17:47

By

17:47

the way, they

17:47

created a fictional country called

17:50

Dystopia with the world's least

17:52

happy people as a benchmark to

17:54

rank each country. Drumroll

17:57

please! Here are the top 5 happiest.

18:00

countries.

18:03

Number 5 is Netherlands. Switzerland

18:07

is 4th. Iceland

18:09

comes in 3rd. In

18:11

second place, Denmark. And

18:14

in first place, we have...

18:18

Finland.

18:20

Well done to our Finnish friends. King

18:22

in the north.

18:25

When you think about it, it's quite impressive,

18:28

as the lack of sunlight during long winters

18:30

in Nordic countries, called the dark season,

18:33

can cause vitamin D deficiency and

18:35

trigger depression and feeling of sadness,

18:38

according to an article on expatriatehealthcare.com.

18:43

The least happy countries were Afghanistan,

18:45

Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Botswana,

18:48

the UK ranks 17th, and

18:50

France 21st. The US with the biggest GDP

18:53

in the world ranked only 19th.

18:56

proof that high GDP alone doesn't

18:58

guarantee happiness for a country.

19:01

Now, let's discuss the role of happiness

19:04

for society and the economy. Psychologists

19:10

have begun using experimental studies to determine

19:12

whether a positive mindset plays a role

19:15

in future positive outcomes. These studies

19:17

show that happy people are more sociable

19:20

and cooperative than unhappy people, are

19:22

healthier than unhappy people, and

19:25

earn more money than unhappy

19:27

people. Several studies have

19:29

even shown that happy people live longer

19:31

than unhappy people, and this

19:33

is not just because happy people tend

19:36

to be healthy. Thus, although

19:38

most people

19:39

want to be happy because it feels good,

19:42

this desired goal may lead to other

19:44

positive outcomes in their lives.

19:49

This

19:49

reminds me of the quote by Richard

19:51

Branson, CEO of Virgin.

19:54

Employees come first, If you take

19:56

care of your employees, they will take care

19:58

of their clients.

20:00

This shows the importance of the

20:02

social factor in ESG for

20:04

businesses as discussed in the Recovery's

20:06

You episode. Maximizing

20:09

shareholders' returns is no longer

20:11

sufficient for sustainable growth. The

20:14

interests of all stakeholders,

20:17

society, employees, clients,

20:19

the environment, regulators, etc.

20:22

matters more.

20:24

Therefore,

20:24

happiness at work,

20:27

alongside diversity and inclusion, has

20:29

become a key priority and a key

20:31

success factor in the long run.

20:35

A professor in economics and humanistic studies

20:37

at Princeton University, Mark Flourbet,

20:40

said, I think it's very important to look

20:42

at these results precisely because we have

20:44

to refocus our efforts in

20:47

terms of progress from the production

20:49

of material stuff to the production of human

20:51

development and human well-being. being.

20:54

There is plenty of reserves we can tap on.

20:57

One is the quality of social relations, which

20:59

is super important because we are social animals.

21:01

We depend a lot on what happens in our

21:04

environment with others, the trust

21:06

we have. So if we could restore people's

21:08

trust in the others and in the

21:11

institutions, that would be a big contributor to

21:13

well-being and also very effective

21:16

in helping them cooperate more when

21:18

the crisis occurs, like, for instance, the pandemic.

21:23

The Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative

21:26

based at Oxford University credits

21:29

the origin of the concept Gross

21:31

National Happiness to the fourth king

21:33

of Bhutan who declared in 1972 that

21:36

gross national happiness, GNH,

21:40

was more important than GDP.

21:43

Since then, the idea of gross national

21:45

happiness has influenced Bhutan's economic

21:47

and social policies and captured

21:49

the imagination of others far

21:51

beyond its borders. In

21:54

creating the Gross National Happiness Index,

21:56

Bhutan sought to create a measurement

21:59

tool that would be useful for policymaking

22:02

and provide policy initiatives for the government,

22:04

NGOs and businesses of Bhutan to

22:07

increase GNH. Here's

22:09

how Bhutan's first democratically elected

22:11

Prime Minister Jingming Tingli explains

22:14

the global shift to GNH in

22:16

a 2014 TED Talk on the journey

22:19

of happiness.

22:21

The GDP-led model has

22:23

failed us. And this, I think

22:25

among others, through these financial crises

22:28

have revealed to us that the

22:31

wealth that we thought we had achieved,

22:33

that we were pursuing by indeed illusory,

22:36

that illusory nature was

22:38

exposed by the financial

22:40

crisis, during which we saw

22:43

our life savings, our stocks, our

22:46

homes, our jobs disappear

22:49

overnight,

22:50

made us realize that there is something

22:52

deeply wrong.

22:55

To quote Socrates, the

22:57

secret of happiness, you see,

22:59

is not found in seeking more,

23:02

but in developing the capacity to

23:04

enjoy less.

23:06

The GNH Index includes both

23:09

traditional areas of socioeconomic

23:11

concerns, such as living standards,

23:14

health and education, and less

23:16

traditional aspects of culture and

23:18

psychological well-being. It

23:20

is a holistic reflection of the general well-being

23:23

of the Bhutanese population rather than

23:25

a subjective psychological ranking of

23:27

happiness alone.

23:28

So the GNH is much

23:30

more about making unhappy people happy

23:32

again, right? Yes. On

23:36

this happy thought,

23:37

let's discuss the future of happiness

23:39

and the tension between the current and future

23:41

generations. To shed some light on the subject,

23:44

let's chat with Professor Claudia Sennig,

23:47

Director of the Wellbeing Observatory

23:49

at CEPRIMAP, a centre for economic

23:51

research and its applications, and member

23:54

of the Council for Economic Analysis

23:56

to the French Prime Minister, Elisabeth Bourn.

23:58

Claudia has a lot to

24:00

say about how we should rethink the role

24:02

of happiness, the impact of inequality

24:05

on happiness, and finally, she responds

24:07

to the age-old question, why

24:09

are the French so unhappy? See

24:12

you for part two of this episode to discover

24:14

the complete interview and conclusion to our

24:17

investigation.

24:21

Hello, Claudio. Hello.