Episode Transcript
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0:00
Those two movies
0:02
are so freaking good. Yeah.
0:05
It's so shocking how good Maverick
0:08
is. So many years later in such
0:10
a different environment
0:12
and then like delayed due to coronavirus.
0:14
Well the funniest thing is when it was delayed for whatever
0:17
years during coronavirus, the fighter
0:20
that Maverick is in is an F-18
0:22
Hornet, the Boeing plane. And by the time
0:24
the movie gets released, it's basically discontinued.
0:27
Within a couple of years, that's when they end of life the
0:29
F-18 Hornet for the Navy.
0:32
Did you catch the Lockheed thing
0:34
in Maverick? The skunk on
0:36
the tail of the plane? Oh yeah. On
0:38
the Mach 10
0:40
Dark Star aircraft. The
0:43
Mach 10 Dark Star. Oh
0:45
God. All right, let's do it. All right,
0:47
let's do this. Who
0:48
got the truth? Is it you? Is it
0:51
you? Is it you? Who got the truth now?
0:53
Is it you? Is it you? Is
0:55
it you? Is it you? Is it you?
0:58
Is it you? Sit me down, say
1:00
it straight, another story
1:02
on the way. Who got
1:04
the truth?
1:05
Welcome to season 12, episode 5
1:08
of Acquired, the podcast about great technology
1:10
companies and the stories and playbooks behind
1:12
them. I'm Ben Gilbert. I'm David Rosenthal.
1:15
And we are your hosts. Today's
1:17
episode is on a critical piece of
1:19
American infrastructure, Lockheed
1:22
Martin. They are the nation's largest
1:24
defense contractor.
1:25
They're actually the federal government's largest contractor,
1:28
period.
1:29
The American taxpayers pay Lockheed
1:31
Martin around $50 billion a year.
1:35
And just to state this early and clearly,
1:38
Lockheed Martin makes, among other things,
1:41
killing machines.
1:42
The company is, of course, critical to defending
1:44
the American way of life. And
1:47
most of these things they make, fortunately, are
1:49
used as deterrents to keep peace.
1:51
But we should not mince words. They make
1:53
weapons synonymous with phrases like overwhelming
1:56
force and air superiority.
1:58
You may feel, and probably should feel
2:00
conflicted as you learn about this company.
2:03
There are really no easy answers to
2:05
the question, is what they make right
2:07
or good? And that's why
2:10
we entrust the decision to use their products
2:12
to the office of the President of the United
2:14
States.
2:15
But this company's history is absolutely fascinating.
2:18
There's stories of hardcore engineering, daring
2:20
innovators, and it's frankly just inspiring.
2:23
Yeah, going back and learning all this and soaking
2:26
in the history of the times
2:28
when Lockheed was really forged
2:31
gave me at least a whole new perspective
2:34
on this killing machines and deterrence
2:36
question. To tell the full
2:39
story of Lockheed and Lockheed
2:41
Martin and all the predecessor companies that came
2:43
before it, because I think it's like 17
2:46
companies all merged together at this point,
2:48
would probably require a full season of acquired, so we're
2:50
not going to do that. Instead, we're going to focus
2:52
on two interwoven stories
2:55
from Lockheed, not Martin, but Lockheed's
2:57
golden eras.
2:59
And the first of those stories
3:01
is the famous Skunk Works. The second one,
3:03
I'm not going to say what it is, so we don't spoil it just
3:05
yet, but as a teaser, it's
3:08
unbelievable and is directly
3:10
tied in to the birth of Silicon Valley.
3:13
So if you're in the tech world and you think Lockheed Martin
3:15
and Defense and fighter planes doesn't
3:17
apply to me, think again, because
3:20
pretty much everything you do came
3:22
out of this. So I can't wait to tell
3:24
it.
3:25
Quite the teaser, David.
3:27
Well, listeners, this episode was selected by
3:29
Acquired LPs. So if you
3:31
want to help pick an episode for next season, you can
3:33
become an Acquired Limited partner, come closer
3:35
to the show in other ways, including a private Zoom
3:38
call with us every month or two for
3:40
all the LPs.
3:41
You can join anytime at acquired.fm
3:44
slash LP.
3:45
If you want more from David and I, you should check
3:47
out our interview show, ACQ2. Our
3:50
last episode was on the topic of how generative
3:52
AI can be valuable specifically
3:54
to B2B SaaS companies and
3:57
probably more importantly, where it cannot.
3:59
And listeners, you can just search ACQ2
4:02
anywhere podcasts are found. We've got
4:04
some awesome interviews coming up, too. ACQ2
4:06
is on fire. Yep.
4:08
Join the Slack, Acquire.fm slash Slack.
4:10
We'll be discussing this episode there
4:13
afterwards. And without further ado, David,
4:15
take us in. And listeners, as always, this
4:17
show is not investment advice. David and I may have
4:19
investments in the companies we discuss. And this show
4:22
is for informational
4:23
and entertainment purposes only. So
4:25
for many of you listening, one thing you may
4:27
not know that I didn't really know till we started the research
4:30
is that the company that eventually became
4:32
Lockheed Martin today
4:34
was two companies. It was Lockheed
4:37
and Martin Marietta. And there was a huge
4:39
merger in 1995. Lockheed
4:43
was actually the second Lockheed
4:45
company, or really maybe the third. The
4:47
first Lockheed company was founded
4:49
in 1912 by one Alan Lockheed.
4:53
But if you were to look at the spelling of his name,
4:56
it would look like Loghead. L-O-U-G-H-E-A-D.
5:00
Yes. But it was pronounced Lockheed because it is
5:02
Scottish like lock, like Loch Ness, Loch
5:04
Heed, not Loghead.
5:06
He eventually changed his name to Lockheed
5:09
and the name of the second company to Lockheed
5:11
to avoid mispronunciations. Which is great.
5:13
He didn't just rename Lockheed the company. He's
5:15
like, yeah, I'm actually going to change my own name spelling
5:18
to match it.
5:19
Yes. So great. So he
5:21
started the first company with his brother, Malcolm.
5:24
And they were more or less contemporaries of the Wright
5:26
brothers.
5:27
It was based in San Francisco, of all
5:29
places. And it was mostly kind of a tourist
5:32
attraction. They had one plane, they had Model
5:34
G, and they flew tourists around
5:36
over the bay and evangelized this new
5:39
flying technology.
5:40
It had a bunch of ups and downs. Malcolm
5:43
leaves the company and goes to Detroit to
5:45
seek his fortune in the automobile industry,
5:48
where he invented the
5:50
modern hydraulic brake
5:52
system for automobiles. So every time you press
5:54
the brake in your cars, you're using
5:57
Malcolm Lockheed's technology. No
5:59
way.
5:59
Yeah, super cool. They also end
6:02
up hiring into this first Lockheed company,
6:04
one John Northrop. That
6:06
name might ring some bells to help them design
6:08
their future airplanes. John would
6:11
go on to be a co-founder with Alan of
6:13
the second Lockheed company, then
6:15
leave to strike out on his own where he founded the
6:17
Avion Corporation. That gets acquired by
6:19
Douglas and becomes a big part of Douglas.
6:22
Douglas, of course, is now part of Boeing. And
6:24
then after that, John, as you might imagine, founded,
6:27
you guessed it, Northrop, which is now Northrop
6:29
Grumman.
6:29
So this one dude was responsible
6:32
for founding or playing a major role in three
6:34
of the remaining five defense
6:36
prime contractors today.
6:38
But anyway, the first Lockheed company goes
6:40
under. They start the second one a few years later.
6:43
They have some success with the Vega
6:45
airplane. People might be familiar with that. It becomes
6:47
a favorite of Amelia Earhart and
6:50
Wiley Post, famous early aviators.
6:53
It becomes successful, this second Lockheed company.
6:55
They end up selling it to a consortium
6:57
of Detroit auto moguls, maybe
7:00
through the relationships from Malcolm or something, that
7:02
have formed the quote unquote Detroit Aircraft
7:04
Corporation or the DAC.
7:07
This is including Charles Kettering, the founder of Delco
7:09
and head of research at GM as part of this. You
7:12
may know Memorial Sloan Kettering. Exactly,
7:15
same dude. So the idea was they were gonna build the
7:17
General Motors of the Air.
7:19
There was just one problem with that is that aviation
7:22
did not become a consumer industry
7:24
like the automobile industry.
7:27
Alan Lockheed departs at this point
7:29
in time and is
7:30
kind of tangentially involved, but
7:32
this company that to this day bears his name
7:34
after this point in time, he doesn't really have a lot of impact
7:37
on. Now, shortly after this maybe
7:39
hair brained GM of the Air idea
7:42
comes together and Lockheed gets sold to
7:44
the Detroit Aircraft Corporation, the
7:46
stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression
7:48
happens and DAC predictably goes
7:51
bankrupt. They sell off the Lockheed
7:53
division, which is actually still fairly profitable
7:56
out of bankruptcy to an entrepreneurial
7:58
young businessman named. Robert Gross.
8:01
And this is really the founding of the modern Lockheed.
8:04
And the craziest thing, this price that
8:06
he bought it for, $40,000, was so low that Alan Lockheed
8:12
actually considered bidding to
8:14
buy his company back when they had it on the auction
8:16
block. And his considered bid
8:18
was $50,000, but he thought that
8:20
is so low that it might be insulting. There's no way
8:22
they'd ever sell it. So he didn't actually bid, and
8:25
the winning bid was $10,000 less. So
8:29
amazing. When
8:30
everything you know of Lockheed today got
8:32
bought out of bankruptcy for $40,000, it's
8:34
crazy.
8:35
So under Robert Gross
8:38
and his brother, Cortland, who gets involved, they
8:40
really are the ones who turned Lockheed into the great
8:43
company it became. So before
8:45
World War Two, during the 30s,
8:47
Lockheed builds the famous Electra
8:50
airplane, which is absolutely
8:52
iconic. This is the plane that Amelia Earhart
8:54
disappears in,
8:56
perhaps even more timelessly. This
8:58
is the plane at the very, very
9:00
famous scene at the end of the movie Casablanca
9:03
when Rick puts Ilse on the plane
9:05
with Victor to escape the Nazis and says,
9:08
here's looking at you, kid. That plane
9:10
is an Electra, I believe an Electra Jr.
9:13
And listeners, you know this plane.
9:15
It's one of those romantic early aircrafts
9:17
that were always sort of perched up at an angle where
9:20
if you saw it standing still on a
9:22
runway, it looked like it could just take off at any
9:24
moment. Oh, absolutely beautiful.
9:27
The Electra and Casablanca
9:29
brings us to the first core
9:31
part of our story, which is World War
9:34
Two, which transforms everything.
9:37
And a man named Clarence Kelly Johnson,
9:40
who started the famous Lockheed Skunk
9:43
Works division.
9:44
And this is great because
9:45
before I started the research, I was loosely
9:48
aware that Lockheed had the first Skunk
9:50
Works. Now it's become almost
9:52
like Kleenex when someone says Skunk Works. Oh,
9:54
we're going to start a little Skunk Works division.
9:56
And like, it was not a thing until
9:59
Kelly Johnson.
9:59
started The Skunk Works. So
10:02
there's a wonderful book. There are a bunch of
10:04
wonderful books around Lockheed, but a book
10:06
titled Skunk Works that was written by Ben
10:08
Rich, who was Kelly's second in command for
10:11
a long time at Skunk Works and then took it over when Kelly
10:13
retired.
10:14
And this book is like the top
10:16
gun of historical autobiographies.
10:18
You read it and you were just fired up. It
10:21
is amazing what these people did.
10:23
It's top gun for engineers. Yes, it's
10:26
so great. I also highly recommend
10:28
a book called Beyond the Horizons, which is
10:31
hard to find and most people don't know about, by Walter
10:33
Boyne. And that is an amazing history of
10:35
Lockheed during all these eras that we're going to talk about.
10:38
David, that's so mean. You're recommending an out of print
10:40
book to people. We keep doing this. This
10:44
one I think I only paid like 40 bucks for on Amazon.
10:47
So it's not quite like Taste of Luxury
10:49
and LVMH, which I think that's now like
10:52
three, four, or $5,000. Oh, yeah. No,
10:54
we definitely spiked the price.
10:57
So we did. All right. So who is
10:59
this Kelly Johnson? He's basically the Shigeru Miyamoto
11:02
of airplane design. His
11:04
nickname is Kelly because when he
11:07
was in grade school growing up in Michigan,
11:09
his real name was Clarence. An older boy
11:12
called him Clara on the schoolyard
11:14
and
11:15
Johnson attacked
11:17
him so viciously that he broke
11:19
this kid's leg.
11:21
And so after that, all of his schoolmates never
11:23
called him Clarence or Clara again and they nicknamed
11:25
him Kelly.
11:26
OK, so not Clara, but why Kelly? There
11:28
was some character of Kelly, kind
11:30
of an Irish tough guy that they
11:32
named him after. That really was his
11:35
personality. So after every skunk
11:37
works test flight for the rest of his tenure
11:39
running skunk works, they throw a big party
11:42
and Kelly would challenge anyone,
11:44
all comers to an arm wrestling match. And
11:46
even when he was like 60 years old, he
11:48
was still beating people. You should Google
11:51
a picture of this dude. He is just a
11:54
1930s man's man at his finest. And maybe
11:56
the best airplane designer ever to live. That
11:58
is Kelly Johnson.
11:59
And we. the stories about him, he
12:01
could intuit the answer to difficult
12:05
math problems in his head. And not just math problems,
12:07
but like physics problems and applying
12:09
Bernoulli's principle in his head and
12:11
come up with an answer that was 5% off
12:14
from the actual answer. And someone else would go spend
12:16
hours and hours and hours with pencil and paper and
12:18
slide roll to come to basically the same number. The
12:21
quote from his first boss, Lockheed's
12:23
chief engineer at the time,
12:24
Kelly would become the chief engineer, but
12:26
his boss at the time, Hall Hibbard, would say, that
12:29
guy can see the air.
12:32
So Kelly ends up winning the Collier
12:34
trophy twice, one of only two people to
12:36
do so in history. The Collier trophy is the equivalent
12:39
of like the Oscar for best picture. It's
12:41
the best airplane design of the year. He
12:43
wins it twice. He ends up being bestowed
12:45
the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Lyndon Johnson,
12:47
leader in his career.
12:49
He is a true American hero.
12:51
So he ends up joining Lockheed right
12:53
out of the University of Michigan engineering school. I'm
12:56
sorry, University of Michigan, you know, Ohio State,
12:58
sorry then. In 1933, at 23 years old, and Kelly is
13:04
really one of the, if not the principal
13:06
engineer that designs and builds the Electra.
13:08
So he becomes the star of Lockheed's then only
13:11
six person aviation
13:14
design and engineering department. There were six people
13:16
that were making these things
13:18
crazy. And he does basically everything
13:20
himself, engineering, designing, testing,
13:22
even flight testing. There's this amazing
13:25
quote in Skunk Works. This is Ben
13:27
Rich talking.
13:28
Kelly once said that unless he
13:30
had the hell scared out of him at least once a
13:32
year in a cockpit, he wouldn't have the proper
13:34
perspective to design airplanes. So
13:38
great. Okay. So the start of World War II rolls
13:40
around. And the first thing that Kelly
13:43
and Lockheed do is they adapt the
13:45
Electra into a bombing vehicle
13:47
called the Hudson. And even before the
13:49
US enters the war, the British
13:52
Royal Air Force ends up buying about 3000 of these
13:55
Hudson's from Lockheed.
13:57
Yeah. This is a thing that was,
13:59
I.
13:59
opening to me doing the research, Lockheed's
14:02
big customer in World War Two before
14:04
the US enters was Britain's Royal
14:06
Air Force. They were a way bigger customer
14:08
than the US was for many, many years.
14:11
So then once the US enters
14:13
the war and as they're gearing up to enter the war, Kelly
14:17
designs the amazing P-38
14:20
Lightning fighter, which was
14:22
the US's elite, fastest,
14:25
most maneuverable aircraft during
14:27
World War Two. They made over 10,000 of
14:30
them during the war and all of
14:32
the top aces in the US Army
14:35
Air Corps flew them. It was the plane
14:37
that shot down the transport that was carrying
14:40
Japanese Admiral Yamamoto,
14:41
the guy who had kind of masterminded
14:43
and overseen the Pearl Harbor attack. This
14:46
is a legendary airplane.
14:48
Side note, I will say last week, partly
14:51
in preparation for recording this, but partly because it's
14:53
something that I've always wanted to do, I went to Pearl
14:55
Harbor and there is truly
14:59
nothing like
15:00
being there and experiencing that. Growing
15:02
up in America, we basically haven't
15:05
had attacks on our soil. It's 9-11 and Pearl
15:07
Harbor period. So it's a very
15:09
unusual thing to see in
15:11
your own country, the remnants of
15:13
an attack and being over the sunken USS
15:16
Arizona from the Japanese bombing, it's
15:19
harrowing and heavy. But I think that that's
15:21
an experience I'd recommend to anyone. Okay,
15:24
so
15:25
that was kind of Lockheed and Kelly during
15:27
the war. Fast forward now to kind of the waning
15:29
days of World War Two, end of 1944 into 1945. It's
15:34
pretty clear that America and the Allies are
15:36
going to win the war at this point in time,
15:39
but it's also becoming evident that
15:41
there are two big
15:43
problems that are emerging.
15:45
One very immediate and
15:48
one sort of longer term.
15:50
The immediate problem is that in
15:52
the skies over Europe, in
15:54
the air theater of the European front,
15:58
a new technology is a appearing
16:00
on the German side. Jet-powered
16:03
fighter planes have
16:06
begun to pop up. And we're not
16:08
a military history podcast, save this for hardcore
16:10
history in Dan Carlin, but my understanding
16:12
of this is that the German jet fighters
16:15
entered the war too late to
16:17
make a difference, but if they had entered service
16:19
earlier,
16:20
it would have been a big problem. So
16:23
the US and the Allies, they're like, oh
16:26
crap, we need to step up our game and get
16:28
a jet fleet in service for us ASAP.
16:31
And for anyone who's not an av geek out
16:33
there or an aviation geek, it's worth knowing
16:36
going from a prop airplane
16:39
to a jet airplane is not just incremental.
16:41
It's an entirely different technology. You may have
16:43
heard the phrase, if you've looked into this before, suck,
16:46
squeeze, bang, blow. It is
16:48
a completely transformative process
16:50
of how the engine uses the
16:52
air in order to create thrust
16:55
that is much more sophisticated than just
16:57
a propeller.
16:58
My understanding is the engines that airplanes were
17:00
flying before then, even the P-38, as
17:02
sophisticated as it was, were basically
17:05
automobile internal combustion engines.
17:07
Totally.
17:08
So we're observing overseas
17:11
our enemy has a completely new
17:13
technology that we have not tamed and mastered
17:15
yet.
17:16
We're at a disadvantage. So that's one problem,
17:18
and we're going to focus on that first. The other problem
17:20
to put a pin in for later, and we start
17:22
to get worried that our ally, the
17:25
Russians and the Soviets,
17:27
our relationship with them might not
17:29
be quite what we think it is. And
17:31
we might have to address that in the coming decades. So
17:34
keep that in the back of your mind as we go along here. But
17:36
let's start with the jet problem.
17:39
So
17:40
the German plane that had started appearing in the skies
17:42
over Europe was the
17:44
Messerschmitt ME 262, nicknamed
17:47
the Swallow. And it was the
17:49
world's first operational jet-powered
17:52
aircraft. It flew close to 550 miles an hour, which
17:55
is over 100 miles an hour faster
17:57
than any allied plane, including the light
17:59
P-38.
18:01
So the US government turns to, of course, the
18:03
very best person for the job to start the
18:06
US jet fighter program,
18:08
Kelly Johnson and Lockheed.
18:10
And they tell him, go make us a
18:12
jet fighter as soon as possible
18:15
and by any means necessary.
18:17
And when we say as soon as possible,
18:19
we want to prototype in 180 days with
18:22
the spec that it must go faster than the
18:25
German swallow. So at least 600
18:27
miles an hour. You need to pull out all the
18:29
stops, bypass any red tape,
18:31
do absolutely anything
18:34
necessary to make this happen.
18:36
And for those tracking along at home, 600
18:39
miles per hour, not quite the speed of sound,
18:41
not quite Mach 1, but approaching that something
18:43
like 80 ish percent to Mach.
18:46
So Johnson hand picks 23
18:51
of Lockheed's very
18:54
best engineers and designers and
18:56
about 30 of the best shop
18:58
people, the people that actually build the
19:00
airplanes. And get this, he
19:03
rents a literal circus
19:06
tent to house them in
19:08
the parking lot next to a plastics
19:10
factory that is nearby to Lockheed's
19:13
headquarters in Burbank, California.
19:16
And it is because of this that the
19:19
name skunk works is
19:22
born because of the outdoor nature
19:24
in the tent and the smell coming
19:26
from this plastics factory. At
19:28
the time, there was a very popular comic strip
19:30
called Little Abner and a character
19:33
in this comic strip had a
19:35
outdoor moonshine still making
19:38
bootlegged prohibition era alcohol. And
19:41
this still in the comic strip was called
19:43
the skunk works.
19:44
I think it was called the skunk works. That's right.
19:46
The skunk works with an O and eventually
19:49
the publisher of Little Abner sues
19:51
Lockheed over using skunk works. So
19:53
they changed it to skunk works.
19:55
So in this circus tent
19:57
in a parking lot, Kelly
20:00
and this super elite team
20:02
from Lockheed build the
20:04
first
20:05
prototype US fighter jet
20:07
named the Lulu Bell
20:09
in 143 days
20:13
start to finish. This is just
20:15
wild for years. The
20:18
US had been working on this technology and
20:20
they hadn't gotten it operationalized. The Germans
20:22
beat them to it. And then in 143 days,
20:26
Kelly and Lockheed go from zero to
20:29
flying
20:30
prototype. Wow. Crazy.
20:33
What a testament to him and to this organization
20:36
in the circus tent that he has built the
20:38
skunk works. Seriously.
20:41
So this 180 day thing
20:43
is a very interesting constraint
20:45
placed on them. And it means that they
20:48
immediately need to go to an
20:50
acquired axiom that we've talked about forever.
20:53
Don't do something that's not your core competency.
20:55
AKA doesn't make the beer taste better or make
20:58
the plane fly faster. Exactly. And
21:00
outsource everything else. And if you only have 180 days to
21:03
do it, you are not going to become
21:05
an engine manufacturing company. You are going to look
21:07
around and say, okay, which of my allies
21:10
has the capability
21:11
to just give me an engine? So
21:13
they find this British company, Halford,
21:15
and they take the Halford H1B
21:18
goblin engine. And that is what they
21:20
put in this prototype.
21:22
Yes. This prototype, the Lulu Bell, would
21:24
go on to become the P80 shooting
21:26
star. Lockheed would ultimately make
21:28
about 2000 of them. And while
21:30
they weren't really used in World War II, because the war ended,
21:33
they would be used in Korea and it would be the first
21:36
jet fighter plane in the US military.
21:38
You raise a really important point though, that we didn't
21:41
cover earlier about Lockheed and
21:43
skunk works.
21:44
They are not engine manufacturers.
21:47
All of the engines that were going into the planes before,
21:49
during, since, they're getting from other
21:51
companies.
21:53
And that is true across the aerospace industry. That's
21:55
interesting that the value chain evolved this way, where basically
21:58
no aircraft manufacturers to the
21:59
this day make their own engines. In commercial,
22:02
you've got Rolls Royce, GE, but
22:04
every single one of these Lockheed planes, the engines
22:07
are made by someone else. Yeah, very
22:09
different from how the automobile industry evolved,
22:11
where obviously Ford and GM
22:14
and whatnot, they're making their own engines.
22:16
So this amazing feat, building
22:20
what becomes the P-80 shooting star and the
22:22
US's first jet fighter plane in
22:24
less than six months, this is
22:26
the beginning of Skunk Works. And
22:29
Kelly realizes, hey,
22:30
this is something pretty special here. So
22:32
I want to read a little quote from the Skunk Works
22:35
book. That primitive Skunk
22:37
Works operation set the standards
22:39
for what followed. The project was highly
22:42
secret, very high priority, and
22:44
time was of the essence. The
22:46
Air Corps had cooperated to meet all of
22:48
Kelly's needs and then got out
22:51
of his way. And boy, did they
22:53
deliver.
22:54
So the P-80 would eventually give way to
22:56
the F-104 Starfighter, which was
22:59
another invention from Kelly and the team. Kelly
23:01
would win the Collier trophy for this.
23:03
So after the war,
23:06
Kelly says, hey, this is special. We should
23:08
keep this going. And the Gross Brothers and
23:10
Lockheed's management agree. And
23:13
they say, yes, you can keep this quote
23:15
unquote Skunk Works division going,
23:18
as long as it doesn't take too
23:20
much money
23:21
and it doesn't distract from your duties in
23:23
the rest of the company as now
23:25
the new chief engineer. So Kelly is both
23:27
the chief engineer of all of Lockheed and
23:29
running Skunk Works at the same time.
23:31
It's insane.
23:33
This not taking too much money thing
23:35
does become a core tenant of the Skunk Works operation,
23:37
because you can sort of get around
23:40
management's ire and management's need
23:42
to report to shareholders and things like that if
23:45
you're doing amazing things and pulling rabbits out
23:47
of hats. And when it's not
23:50
going well, you're not a huge burden.
23:52
Yeah. So I'm going to read a little more from Skunk
23:54
Works here. So Kelly and his handful of bright
23:56
young designers that he selected took over
23:59
some empty space.
23:59
in building 82. This
24:02
is a building on the Lockheed
24:05
campus, which is right next to
24:07
the Burbank Municipal Airport.
24:10
It's an unmarked building. Literally, like this is a commercial
24:12
airport that
24:13
average people are taking off of every
24:15
single day. So
24:17
that it continues. Those guys brainstormed,
24:19
what if questions about the future needs
24:21
of commercial and military aircraft. And if
24:24
one of their ideas resulted in a contract to
24:26
build an experimental prototype, Kelly would
24:28
borrow the best people he could find in the
24:30
main plant to get the job done. That
24:32
way the overhead was kept low and the
24:34
financial risks to the company stayed small.
24:37
His small group were all young and high spirited
24:40
who thought nothing of working out of a phone booth
24:42
if necessary as long as they were designing
24:45
and building
24:46
airplanes.
24:47
All that mattered to Kelly was our proximity
24:50
to the production floor. A
24:52
stone's throw was too far away. Kelly
24:54
wanted us, the engineers and designers, only
24:57
steps away from the shop workers to
24:59
make quick structural or parts changes.
25:02
Yes, I love this. I think
25:04
this is a huge learning,
25:06
keeping your designers as close
25:08
as possible to production. So the game of
25:11
telephone is as short as possible and
25:13
is incredibly valuable. And having the
25:15
designers being able to glance up at their desk and
25:17
see like literally the way things are being manufactured
25:20
so they can say, oh, that looked good in the
25:22
diagram, but in practice, you have to bring this
25:24
big thing around over here. Maybe we can make that
25:26
better the next time we design it. It's just
25:29
such a great key insight. The
25:31
other thing on the small number of people, this
25:33
gets to the Skunk Works rules.
25:36
And Kelly created this incredible
25:38
document, 14 rules that
25:40
we'll link to in the show notes. Oh, yeah. The
25:42
third of which I mean, they're all incredible. The third of
25:44
which really applies here.
25:46
And I quote,
25:47
the number of people having any connection
25:50
with the project must be restricted
25:52
in an almost vicious manner. Use
25:54
a small number of good people 10 percent
25:57
to 25 percent compared to the so-called
25:59
These
26:01
people should all be together, all of them
26:03
building relationships, collaborating, working
26:05
together to produce the very best product. And
26:08
you see this in products in the future too. The iPhone,
26:10
the iPod, I mean you read the stories about the early teams
26:12
there are six, eight, ten people. They're
26:15
all full stack. So there's these unicorns
26:17
that cross disciplines and they're 10x, 100x engineers.
26:21
So you really only need a handful
26:23
of really good people.
26:25
So I think it's worth going through a
26:27
bunch of Kelly's rules.
26:29
But first,
26:30
we have one of our very favorite acquired
26:33
companies to tell you about. Yes, Vanta.
26:35
And we have something all new to share
26:38
this time. Of course, you know by now that
26:40
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26:42
revenue by getting their compliance certifications. And
26:45
of course, you also know it's amazing for startups
26:47
since it's the fastest and easiest way to get SOC 2,
26:50
ISO 2701, and other
26:52
certifications that as a small startup, you just would
26:54
not otherwise have the resources for. But
26:57
today, we want to talk about why Vanta
27:00
is also
27:00
the best security compliance platform
27:02
as you hit hyper growth and scale
27:05
your company into a larger enterprise.
27:07
Yes, Vanta now has a tremendous
27:10
amount of customization to meet your increasingly
27:12
complex security needs. If you're already
27:15
a larger company and in the past you maybe showed
27:17
Vanta to your compliance department and heard, oh, we
27:19
already have a process in place. We can't
27:21
integrate this. Now, even if you
27:23
already have a SOC 2, Vanta makes maintaining
27:26
your compliance way more efficient
27:28
and robust. For example, just last week
27:30
they launched vendor risk management.
27:33
Take, for example, oh, I don't know, the aircraft
27:35
industry where you have tons of subcontractors
27:37
that are working. You don't know what risks they have. You
27:39
need to know this. This allows your company
27:42
to quickly understand the security posture
27:44
of the vendors that you are choosing in
27:46
a standardized way that cuts down on security review time.
27:49
This is awesome. Yeah. And
27:51
on the customization front, they
27:52
also now enable custom
27:54
frameworks built around your custom
27:57
security controls and policies. Of
27:59
course, that's all. Also, in addition to the fact that with Vanta,
28:01
you don't just become compliant once, you
28:04
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from them for the first time in the company's
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or go to vanta.com slash acquired, you get a free
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So to get both of those, remember, click the link in the show
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notes, go to vanta.com slash acquired
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and our thanks to Vanta. All
28:40
right, David, so what makes Skunk Works
28:42
work? Well, to start, all
28:45
that mattered, literally the only
28:47
thing
28:48
that matters is rapid delivery
28:51
of superior products. And
28:53
that was driven by the expedient requirements
28:56
of World War II, literally
28:58
saving America and the free world. And
29:01
then the Cold War, which is going to come in in a big
29:03
way in a second here.
29:04
Listeners might be thinking,
29:06
isn't all that matters in any
29:09
business rapid delivery of superior
29:11
products? Like why is this new
29:14
and unique and different?
29:15
The reality though, is that that's almost never
29:18
the case. There's politics, there's
29:20
personalities. And you rarely
29:22
have an existential threat that
29:25
you must cut through all the red tape.
29:27
It's like Operation Warp Speed, the way that we got the vaccines
29:29
as fast as we did. If the world is
29:31
on the line, what can you do away
29:34
with in your processes and which people
29:36
can you hand select to solve it?
29:39
Competition and existential competition
29:41
kind of has a way of bringing out the best in people.
29:44
So Ben, you already talked about rule three. I want to... Did
29:46
we pick the same ones? I'm so curious. We
29:49
got 14 to pick from. Let's see, let's pick
29:51
three that we're going to highlight here. We already talked about
29:53
number three. What are your others?
29:55
The next one I want to talk about is
29:57
the Skunk Works manager must be delegated
29:59
practically
29:59
complete control of his program
30:02
in all aspects.
30:04
Yeah. I mean, this is like the auteur theory.
30:06
Like you have to have a single person's
30:09
vision and the buck stopping with a single
30:11
person who has ultimate control
30:14
and isn't a squeezed middle manager. He's
30:16
the program manager for any given
30:18
program that they're working on, any new aircraft. And
30:21
also, he's the guy flying to Washington to
30:23
interface with the government. It's not like he's
30:26
dealing with the engineers and then calling the sales force
30:28
and being like, hey, can you go to a steak dinner with our
30:30
guy in Washington? No, it's Kelly.
30:33
And at its most productive
30:34
Skunk Works, I think, was about
30:36
maybe 50 designers and engineers
30:39
and maybe 100 machinists and shop
30:41
people. This is not a large organization.
30:43
It's crazy. My last one is
30:46
the last one of the rules. Yes, this is
30:48
one of mine too. Because only a few people
30:51
will be used in engineering and most
30:53
other areas. Ways must
30:55
be provided to reward good
30:57
performance by pay, not
31:00
based on number of personnel supervised.
31:02
So Kelly has a quote about this in the book.
31:04
In the main plant,
31:06
they give raises on the basis of the more
31:08
people supervised. I give raises
31:10
to the guy who supervises the least. That
31:13
means he's doing more and taking more responsibility.
31:16
But most executives don't think like that
31:18
at all. They're empire builders.
31:20
This is so important. Yep,
31:23
totally agree. And in fact, it's thinking
31:25
like a capitalist too. I mean, it's really like,
31:27
how can we achieve the most with the least, not
31:30
how can we achieve a fixed amount with a fixed
31:32
margin?
31:33
So there's one more thing that isn't
31:35
in any of the rules, because I think it's just sort
31:37
of a implicit, unspoken assumption.
31:40
All of this only works if the
31:42
small group of people that you've brought together
31:45
are
31:45
highly motivated. And
31:48
I think the reason this was taken for granted for all of
31:50
Skunk Works' heyday was,
31:52
hey, the mission here is preserving
31:54
your life and the lives of your loved ones
31:57
and America from losing
31:59
world war II.
31:59
or two and then having nuclear bombs
32:02
dropped on it by the Soviet Union. You don't
32:04
really need a lot of extra cajoling or motivation
32:06
here.
32:07
Totally. And you got to think back. This was
32:09
a time where American superiority was not
32:11
guaranteed. I think we have a
32:13
reasonable amount of complacency today.
32:16
Americans feel very secure. Sure, they're enemies,
32:18
but are we going to be fine? Totally. We
32:21
don't need to think about this that much. We can decide
32:23
to prioritize other things and have
32:25
passions and say, yeah,
32:27
other people can take care of the national good because
32:30
we'll be fine either way. That was not the
32:32
belief at the time. No, there's this great
32:35
quote in Skunk Works where Ben Rich tells
32:37
the story of his first day in Skunk
32:39
Works where he's shown the U-2 prototype. We're
32:42
going to talk all about the U-2 in a minute here. But
32:44
literally day one, he's shown the prototype of this top
32:47
highly classified, highly secret
32:49
airplane that nobody
32:50
can know about. He says, the
32:52
full weight of government secrecy
32:55
fell on me like a sack of cement that day
32:57
inside Kelly Johnson's guarded domain.
33:00
Learning an absolutely momentous national
33:03
security secret just took my breath
33:05
away and I left work bursting
33:07
with both pride and energy to
33:09
be on the inside of a project so
33:12
special and closely held, but also
33:14
nervous about the burdens it
33:16
would impose on my life. This
33:18
is exactly to your point. With great
33:20
power comes great responsibility
33:23
here. Yup.
33:25
Okay, so what are the machines
33:27
that sort of unfold from here? Yeah, all right.
33:30
So a minute ago, I was talking about the two problems that
33:32
America and its allies have at the end
33:34
of World War II. One was the jets. Skunk
33:36
Works addresses that with the P-80
33:38
shooting star. The other problem is, yeah,
33:41
we're going to win this war, but
33:43
there's a whole new war that's just about to start.
33:46
Yeah, and the war we're coming out of is World War
33:48
II, but of course the Cold War against the Russians
33:50
is just starting. And this is so
33:52
hard for us to process today, but
33:55
doing the research, I really felt it.
33:57
I think for a lot of people.
34:00
the stakes and the
34:02
pressure and the worry about
34:04
the Cold War was greater than
34:06
World War II.
34:08
Yeah, that's a great point. When the Americans entered
34:10
World War II, we had reason to believe
34:12
that we could come in and win.
34:15
The Cold War, I think to the American
34:17
psyche, felt very different. I
34:20
think we had good reason to believe
34:22
we were not going to win.
34:23
So right after the war, Churchill
34:25
comes to America and gives his famous Iron Curtain
34:27
speech in Fulton, Missouri, that an Iron Curtain
34:30
has descended over Europe in the form of
34:32
the Soviet Union. And then before
34:35
the end of the decade, I didn't really realize the
34:37
timeline on this. In August 1949, the
34:40
Soviet Union detonates its first nuclear
34:42
bomb.
34:43
And nobody believed that
34:46
they were going to have the bomb that
34:48
quickly or that powerfully. And not
34:50
only did they have the bomb, but
34:53
whether this was real or not or positioning,
34:56
people really believe that
34:58
the Soviets and Khrushchev's intention
35:01
is to use the bomb against America.
35:04
If they ever believe that they could do
35:06
so without fear of retaliation,
35:08
that they could knock us out first, that they would
35:11
do
35:11
a first strike and use nuclear
35:14
weapons on America.
35:15
And this kicks off the Cold War arms
35:17
race. And people probably know and learn about mutually
35:20
assured destruction and deterrence. This
35:22
really was the policy
35:25
of the military and the American government, that
35:27
we need to have capabilities to
35:30
deter the Soviet Union from launching
35:32
a first nuclear strike against us by
35:35
being able to guarantee
35:37
and have them know that we guarantee that if
35:39
they do so, we will destroy
35:41
them. So they can't do this because
35:44
if they do, they will be destroyed. That
35:46
was the whole policy. And that's like a really scary
35:48
place to be.
35:50
This is like
35:51
if somebody over there in the Kremlin
35:53
decides one day that they think
35:55
they can win, we're all going to die.
35:58
Right.
35:59
There was a national
36:02
poll
36:03
that asked the question,
36:05
what do you think you are most likely
36:07
to die from?
36:08
And over half of America
36:12
responded that they thought they were most
36:14
likely to die in thermonuclear war
36:17
above any other cause. Let that sink
36:19
in. Over half of the country thought
36:21
they were going to die in nuclear war. Horrifying.
36:25
And so in a war of perception, intelligence
36:28
is paramount.
36:29
Bingo. It is the most important
36:31
thing. Even more important than your
36:34
ability to strike and
36:36
wage war is your ability to know
36:38
what the current state of the opponent's ability
36:41
is to strike and wage war.
36:44
So that means that the battleground is no longer
36:46
the use of weapons,
36:48
but the intelligence about the existence
36:50
and positioning of weapons. And
36:53
nobody is
36:54
better suited than
36:56
Skunkworks
36:57
to be the US government and military's
37:00
primary sounds cliche to say,
37:03
but sword and shield during this war.
37:05
Yes. So this brings us to the
37:07
U2 spy plane.
37:09
And this plane serves such an important
37:11
purpose that ended up being
37:14
brought into service in 1955 and
37:17
was only decommissioned in 1989. Yeah,
37:21
incredible.
37:22
Now there are many airplane programs
37:24
that have 10, 20, 25 year timeframes. For
37:28
very different reasons. Yes, that we will
37:30
talk about in the military industrial complex. But
37:33
the U2 was basically the first time
37:35
that America found a plane that it could use
37:37
for a long time and wasn't rapidly replaced
37:39
by the next best thing.
37:41
Okay, so it would be really great if you
37:43
could fly a plane over Russia and take
37:45
pictures and understand all this. Because there's no satellites
37:47
yet. Oh, are there satellites? We'll
37:50
talk about that a little later. But you can't just fly
37:52
a plane into Russia and do that. It's a closed country.
37:55
The Russians are going to shoot you down if you do it. We're not
37:57
technically at war, so it would violate
37:59
international.
37:59
treaties to go into their airspace, we
38:02
would start the war by doing that. Exactly.
38:04
So the first thing, it's funny, it's kind of in the news now,
38:07
China's doing this now, the first thing we
38:09
try is unmanned spy balloons. We
38:11
send balloons over Russia. Failed weather experiments.
38:14
Yeah, failed weather experiments. That fails
38:16
on many fronts, including actually
38:19
returning usable photos of Soviet
38:21
nuclear installations.
38:23
So
38:24
really it becomes clear that what's required
38:27
is an entirely new type
38:29
of airplane that can either do
38:31
one of two things and ideally both.
38:33
Fly over Russia stealthily
38:36
and undetected by radar,
38:38
or two, fly high enough or
38:40
fast enough that they can't shoot it down even if they
38:42
do. At Soskogworks, being the ambitious
38:44
organization that they are, tries for option one,
38:47
and we don't frankly know very
38:49
much about what Russia's capabilities are. So
38:51
we're pretty sure that we can
38:54
build some airplane that flies high
38:56
enough that their radar systems
38:58
won't detect us. And great,
39:00
so let's do that. Yeah, great.
39:02
So this is interesting. What government
39:05
agency contracts them to do this?
39:07
It's not the military. We're in the spy game
39:09
now. It's not the army, not the Navy, not the
39:11
Air Force. It's the CIA. They
39:14
are building their own air
39:16
capabilities and all of the work that
39:18
Ssogworks does here and for many years to come is
39:20
for the CIA.
39:22
So what exactly is the challenge
39:25
that Ssogworks has laid out in front
39:27
of them for designing this new spy plane?
39:30
Well
39:30
at the time, the maximum altitude
39:32
that airplanes flew was about 40,000 feet.
39:36
The US thought that the Soviets' best
39:38
interceptor fighter aircraft could
39:41
get to about 45,000 feet.
39:43
Yeah, and we also thought that their radar
39:45
wouldn't function above like 55,000, right? We
39:48
were like, all right, as long as we clear 65,000, we should be higher than their
39:50
radar
39:51
could
39:53
even detect and certainly higher than
39:55
their fighters could come get us. Right.
39:58
So the CIA's spec for...
39:59
gunk works for the U2 is
40:02
to fly at 70,000 feet.
40:04
Now, there are a couple problems
40:06
with that.
40:07
One is that normal jet
40:10
fuel doesn't work at that altitude.
40:12
At that altitude, the pressure,
40:15
the temperature, everything
40:17
about the environment, you're getting to be closer
40:20
to space than you are to normal Earth
40:22
atmosphere, and things start going wrong. So
40:25
that one, they actually subcontract with
40:27
shell oil to make a new formulation
40:30
of jet fuel that does work up there. So
40:32
that problem is solved.
40:34
Problem number two is maybe a little bigger,
40:36
and that is that humans cannot survive
40:39
at that altitude.
40:40
So certainly you need a pressurized cabin,
40:43
but if something were to happen and you needed to be out
40:45
of the cabin, cold,
40:47
no air, blah, blah, blah. Yeah, and I
40:49
don't know the technical details, but
40:51
I think even the cabin pressurization technology
40:54
that existed then was not going to cut
40:56
it at 70,000 feet.
40:58
So you basically need a spacesuit.
41:01
Exactly. Some of this technology
41:03
came from diving suits and some other things that
41:05
came before this, but I think
41:07
this was the big coming together of the
41:09
technology that created the
41:11
spacesuit, and that's what they put these pilots
41:14
in.
41:14
Wow. So
41:16
Lockheed and Skunk Works win
41:18
the contract from the CIA.
41:20
They start working on this plane sometime
41:23
in 1953. Incredibly
41:25
top secret.
41:26
We wouldn't reveal the fact that this existed
41:29
to the Russians, our own people, for years and
41:31
years and years. I mean, this is like the quote
41:33
from earlier that we read from Ben Rich when he started
41:35
working on this project day one and saw
41:38
the prototype, and then it hit him like a sack
41:40
of cement, how important this was.
41:43
So Skunk Works completes
41:46
and delivers the plane
41:48
by July, 1955. So
41:50
like a year and a half, and for a total
41:53
project cost
41:55
of three and a half million dollars.
41:57
That's an M. That is not a B. A
41:59
year and a half. and three and a half million dollars
42:02
for one of the most important
42:05
products and pieces of technology
42:07
in American history.
42:09
Astounding! This is what Skunk Works
42:11
is capable of.
42:12
So they're flying higher than any plane has ever
42:14
flown before, they're using a different type of fuel, people
42:17
are flying in spacesuits for the first time.
42:19
Feels like to be a reconnaissance aircraft
42:21
you would also need one other key
42:24
component in order to
42:26
achieve the mission of spying
42:29
on the enemy. Yeah, to take photos you
42:31
need a camera.
42:32
Indeed, and you would need an all new
42:35
type of camera with all new type of lens
42:38
capable of taking photographs of something 70,000
42:41
feet away from you through, you
42:44
know, a whole bunch of atmosphere.
42:46
Gosh,
42:47
if only the US had someone who was just
42:50
incredible at this sort of pioneering
42:53
optics technology.
42:54
Indeed the US did and that was Dr. Edwin
42:57
Land and the Polaroid company
42:59
who subcontracted and created all of that. And actually
43:02
I believe it was Edwin Land himself
43:05
that helped convince President Eisenhower
43:07
to even pursue this project in the first place. He
43:09
was like, we can build the camera that can do this,
43:12
if we can get the airplane built,
43:14
we can do this project. This blew
43:16
my mind, it's so cool to see the intersections
43:19
of different innovators throughout history.
43:21
I mean Edwin Land is the man who inspired Steve
43:23
Jobs and he's building the U2's
43:27
camera. Oh, just wait, we are going to have a lot
43:29
more tech in Silicon Valley and
43:31
Apple stuff that's going to come up here
43:34
in just a little bit.
43:35
So they built the plane, you
43:38
got to test this thing.
43:39
They're not going to roll it on the runway in Burbank
43:41
and take off and, you know, just head for
43:43
the Soviet Union. You got to test it and
43:46
you know, it's got to be secret of whatnot.
43:48
And remember, Kelly Johnson, one of his big principles
43:50
is like, we test our products. You,
43:52
the government, don't test our products, we test our products. And
43:55
we should be clear, this U2 spy plane looks
43:57
crazy.
43:59
Yeah, this thing, if you
44:02
saw it taking off, you would be like,
44:04
okay, I've seen airplanes. That thing is completely
44:07
different. So it's not like they could disguise
44:10
it. Like you need to figure out somewhere in the
44:12
United States where there's basically nobody
44:15
so that you can test this thing. Oh,
44:17
this is so fun. Oh, the smile on our
44:19
faces is like, you
44:21
can't see us, but it is stretching out of the room
44:23
here.
44:24
Yeah. You can't just paint this
44:26
thing like a school bus and pretend it's something
44:27
else. So they need to find a suitable test site. They go
44:29
scouting all across the Western US
44:32
and kind of remote areas. Kelly Johnson
44:34
is sort of like Sam Walton and his prop plane
44:36
scouting out for, you know, Walmart locations
44:39
flying sideways. And then they get an idea.
44:42
And that idea is where
44:44
is a place where even
44:47
if there were people before, there
44:49
sure aren't people now because
44:52
nobody in their right mind would
44:54
want to be anywhere close to
44:56
where we just tested our nuclear
44:59
bombs. And
45:01
they go, oh,
45:03
as long as we figure out that it's safe,
45:05
that would be a perfect place for
45:07
us to test this airplane.
45:09
So they find a dry lake bed in Nevada
45:12
called Groom Lake. And there's
45:14
a quote from Kelly Johnson here about this
45:17
in the book. We flew over it and within 30
45:19
seconds you knew that this was the place.
45:22
It was right by a dry lake, man alive.
45:24
We looked at that lake and we all looked at each
45:27
other. It was another Edwards, like Edwards Air
45:29
Force Base. So we wheeled around, landed
45:32
on that lake, taxied up to one end of
45:34
it. It was a perfect natural landing
45:36
field, as smooth as a billiard
45:38
table without anything being done to it.
45:41
How insane is it that this
45:43
is where we were testing nukes?
45:46
I actually do not understand how
45:48
there was not radiation poisoning. And
45:51
I don't fully understand the half-life and all
45:53
that needs to be done. But like,
45:54
how is that safe? Yeah,
45:56
it's insane. And not only were there recently
45:59
nuclear tests.
45:59
happening right nearby, I
46:01
believe that nuclear testing
46:04
continued right nearby while they're
46:06
using this site, Groom Lake, to
46:09
test the U2. 100%, it's
46:11
the craziest thing. They had to sometimes take
46:13
some time between the most recent
46:16
nuclear test and when they wanted to
46:18
go fly, because these sites are like, I don't
46:20
know, 12 miles away from each other or something pretty
46:23
close. If you're curious listeners, there's this
46:25
great documentary on Amazon called
46:28
Secrets in the Sky, the untold story
46:30
of Skunk Works that has a bunch of footage
46:32
of all of this. Wow.
46:33
So listeners, if you haven't caught on already,
46:36
the location that we are talking
46:38
about. A Nevada test site
46:40
in the middle of the desert. Nuclear,
46:43
some really strange looking flying aircraft.
46:46
This is Area 51. Skunk
46:49
Works creates Area 51.
46:52
And of course there's rumors of UFOs
46:55
there. They want to keep everyone away. For
46:57
the people who they can't keep away, they're going
46:59
to see some really weird flying stuff. So
47:01
of course the rumors are going to start. It's
47:03
all goodness for Skunk Works. This cover is
47:05
great. It's even better than that.
47:08
I can't remember which plane or when this
47:10
was, but at one point in time, one
47:12
of the test flights crashed and the
47:15
pilot survived and somebody saw
47:17
him. He was wearing a spacesuit. Nobody
47:19
knew what a spacesuit was. Of course he looked like a
47:21
freaking alien. Right. Maybe
47:23
another 10 years before we would have the
47:25
moon missions.
47:27
Yeah. It's so funny. Amazing.
47:30
Yeah. It's all
47:33
Skunk Works and the U2. Wow. And
47:36
then the Blackbird and everything else we're going to get into
47:38
later in the story. All happening out of Area 51.
47:41
The prep work that the pilots had to go through
47:43
before getting on these planes too were nuts. They
47:45
needed to breathe pure oxygen for two
47:48
hours to remove all the nitrogen from
47:50
their blood in case they
47:52
had to eject. Because remember these are test pilots
47:54
on a super experimental aircraft. They were
47:56
often ejecting or they were often, you
47:59
know, things went wrong.
47:59
wrong in these tests. Yeah, a bunch of people died
48:02
doing this, like we should say. Yeah,
48:04
I mean, a great sacrifice to bring
48:06
this program and subsequent Skunk Works programs
48:09
into the world. But
48:10
basically what was happening is if you
48:13
didn't breathe pure oxygen for two hours, you
48:15
could get the bends for anyone who
48:17
scuba-dived and you can't fly right afterwards from
48:20
ejecting. And so it's like, well,
48:22
if you managed to get out of the aircraft before
48:25
it crashed, then that could kill
48:27
you. So you needed to make sure that this
48:30
oxygenating of your blood and getting rid of all the nitrogen
48:32
made it so that if you did need to eject, then
48:34
you would survive this as well. Yeah,
48:37
crazy.
48:38
OK, so they test the U2 at
48:40
Area 51. So great. They
48:42
get it up and running. And in active service
48:45
as an operational spy plane,
48:47
pretty much the world's first, at least
48:49
of this type, within a year, the
48:52
first Soviet Union overflight
48:54
happens on July 4, 1956. Of
48:59
course it was. Of course it was July 4. Now,
49:01
this is so interesting. There's a whole bunch
49:04
of things that happen when they take out, like, they don't know what's going to
49:06
happen. Is this thing going to work? Are the Soviets going to see us?
49:08
We're going to learn so much here.
49:10
You can't script this stuff. The Soviets
49:13
tracked it on radar,
49:14
even at 70,000 feet. The whole
49:16
way. The whole way. Right from it takes off
49:19
the whole flight path through Russia. They
49:21
knew everything that we were doing.
49:24
We were super wrong about their
49:26
radar. They didn't just have low altitude
49:28
radar. They were capable of radar
49:31
that could see straight up into
49:33
space. Wherever we were flying, they were going to see
49:35
us. Yeah, which we had no idea. So we
49:37
learned this as part of it.
49:38
So here's what's funny. We know
49:40
that they see it from takeoff. They track the
49:43
U2 the whole way. This whole top secret program, like, oh,
49:45
no, it's busted.
49:46
They see it. But it turns out they
49:49
can't hit it. So a whole
49:51
bunch of fighter jets scramble. And the fighter jets, they
49:53
can't get up that high. So they can't intercept it. They
49:56
launch surface to air missiles. The missiles can't
49:59
hit anything. high up. So the
50:01
U-2 just flies along, they're tracking it
50:03
the whole way, there's planes flying along
50:05
behind it, and they can't do anything. But at least
50:07
we get the intel now in the U.S. that, okay,
50:10
they can see up here, and so it's
50:12
probably just a matter of time before they're
50:14
capable of shooting something down up here
50:17
too.
50:17
Yes. But here's what's so interesting.
50:20
Remember this whole war, like, God, it's fascinating.
50:23
It's a war, but it's not a war. It's a war
50:25
of perception. So
50:27
in that flight, we get incredible
50:29
photographic observational evidence, and
50:31
we would fly so many missions
50:34
over Russia for the next few years getting this
50:36
incredible intelligence.
50:38
The Soviets never say anything, because
50:40
if they were to say anything and say
50:42
that they tracked us into it, then they
50:45
would be admitting that they were powerless
50:47
to stop it. This war of perception,
50:49
like, it's so crazy, the incentives
50:51
and motivations here, but it makes sense.
50:53
They're not going to say anything and reveal the program,
50:55
so it remains top secret,
50:57
because if they did, their sort of position
51:00
and posturing of strength would be compromised.
51:02
And neither country really wants to be at war,
51:04
so we're both maintaining this, we're
51:07
not at war, and we're not
51:09
going to tell you that we're preparing for if
51:11
we need to be, but of course we're going to do whatever
51:14
we can to understand the best
51:16
about our enemy, or not our enemy, other
51:18
countries that we're not at war with. Adversary.
51:22
Right. And I actually think there may be military
51:24
historians that
51:26
understand this better than us, but
51:28
I think this was actually an optimal
51:30
outcome for the US. Because,
51:34
remember, just like you were saying, Ben, nobody actually
51:36
wants to go to war here. The goal is
51:38
for both sides to keep each other in check, and
51:41
so this, the U-2 and these reconnaissance
51:43
missions, become a major chess piece
51:45
for us on our side of the board
51:47
to keep the Soviets in check. We
51:50
like this state, I think, that
51:52
they know about it,
51:53
but nobody talks about it.
51:55
The other crazy thing is, this camera is
51:57
incredible. If you look up photos taken
51:59
by
51:59
U-2 spy plane, it is remarkable
52:02
what in the mid-50s this thing was
52:04
capable of taking photographs of from 70,000 feet.
52:07
The engineering all around that went into this is
52:10
just incredible. You could do a whole podcast just about
52:13
the technical aspects of the engineering advances.
52:15
And it basically works. They find a whole bunch
52:18
of nuclear test sites. They find where missiles
52:20
are kept. We basically have a real-time
52:22
count of the Soviet
52:24
Union's warheads, the Soviet Union's
52:27
fighter jets, the capabilities that they
52:29
have with their radar because it's painting our
52:31
airplanes. So we now know that that
52:33
exists. Mission accomplished in spades on this thing.
52:36
We talked earlier about the cost of $3.5 million.
52:40
I think you could make an analogy to the Louisiana
52:42
Purchase in terms of best deals that
52:44
the United States government ever got
52:46
relative to the benefit to America. This
52:49
is huge. Arguably the last great deal they got from Lockheed
52:51
Martin. Well,
52:54
no, there's some more that we're going to talk about in a minute.
52:56
So this all continues. We
52:59
fly dozens, maybe hundreds of
53:01
U-2 missions over the next few years.
53:03
The Russians are constantly trying to shoot them down. They fail.
53:06
Nobody says anything.
53:07
And then
53:08
on May 1st, 1960, ironically
53:11
on May Day, we launched the U-2 program
53:13
on July 4th.
53:14
And it ends, at least over the Soviet Union.
53:17
On May
53:18
Day, 1960, the Soviets
53:20
finally have developed a missile
53:23
that can reach 70,000 feet with
53:25
accuracy and they shoot down a U-2.
53:28
This was the first time in history that
53:30
a ground to air missile had
53:33
shot down an airplane. I
53:35
didn't realize this. I read that. I was
53:37
like, oh, whoa. I guess maybe the technology didn't exist during World War
53:39
II, the Korean War. And so this was
53:41
a major historical moment in so many
53:43
ways. America
53:44
and the CIA and the government, the
53:46
president, they're like, okay. Right. What
53:49
do we do? America's posture is we were never there. Right.
53:51
So now that the motivation for Russia
53:54
not to talk about it now is gone. Now they
53:56
can position this as like, hey, we're
53:58
so strong that we.
53:59
We can keep people out.
54:01
We expect them to say something right away.
54:04
A couple of weeks go by. They say nothing.
54:07
Quite surprising. All we know is we've
54:09
lost contact with our pilot
54:11
and we didn't see them come back and land
54:14
so we presume that
54:16
they shot down our pilot but they're not saying anything.
54:19
But we don't really know. And we presume that
54:21
if this plane was shot down, as we think, probably
54:23
the pilot was killed. I mean, like,
54:26
you shoot down a plane from 70,000 feet. Right.
54:28
The pilot was killed.
54:30
Well... That's 14
54:32
miles in the air. Yeah.
54:35
No. The
54:37
pilot was not killed. The pilot's
54:40
name was Francis Gary Powers.
54:43
Pilot Powers. If you know anything about US history,
54:45
you probably know his name and you probably know
54:47
that he miraculously did survive and was
54:49
captured and interrogated and probably tortured
54:52
by the Russians and that this was
54:54
the revealing of the U2 program. So
54:57
what happens?
54:58
Turns out that there was a big summit in Paris
55:00
scheduled for later in May
55:03
between Eisenhower and Khrushchev. And
55:05
Khrushchev announces on the
55:08
eve of the summit
55:09
that they have captured an American pilot.
55:12
They have captured this new plane
55:14
that the US has been illegally and
55:17
in a provocateur manner flying
55:19
over Soviet airspace. They have
55:22
defended their country and shot it down and this creates
55:24
a huge mess. Eisenhower
55:27
first denies this and then admits
55:29
it when we realize that like, oh shoot, this pilot
55:32
is still alive. He's confessed
55:34
like, wow, this is a disaster.
55:36
Yeah.
55:37
So, but I guess there probably was a path where
55:39
this could have led to escalation. Fortunately
55:42
it does not.
55:43
But it does mean that the U2
55:45
program, at least over Russia is
55:48
done. We don't fly any more U2s
55:50
over Russia. We can't. I mean, if we were to
55:52
do it at this point, we know they can see us. They now
55:54
can talk about that they can see us and they can shoot
55:56
us down. Like it would escalate to war
55:59
if we kept doing this.
55:59
we have to stop. The U-2 becomes
56:02
quite useful for other locations around the globe,
56:04
but not over the USSR itself. This
56:06
though is a huge, huge problem. This was
56:09
the most important thing in the war, and now it's gone,
56:11
right?
56:12
We now have no way to take photos
56:15
of military sites in Russia because
56:17
we can't fly planes over there anymore, right?
56:20
We're blind. What do we do? What do we do? Well,
56:24
the world would not know until 1995, when
56:29
this would all become declassified
56:31
under the Clinton administration.
56:33
But that was only true for about three
56:36
months,
56:37
thanks to
56:38
another
56:39
super secretive
56:41
Lockheed division that
56:44
figured out another way for us to take pictures
56:46
of the Soviet Union. Yes. And
56:49
this, listeners, is where if you've
56:51
read Skunk Works or watched documentaries about Skunk
56:54
Works,
56:54
what we're about to talk about is not in any of
56:56
those. This is a completely separate story
56:59
that takes place in a different place in
57:01
California that is a detour from
57:03
our Skunk Works story. And we'll be back because
57:05
my god did Skunk Works do some incredible
57:08
things after the U-2. But
57:10
before we do that, we want to take you to
57:13
Northern California and the origins
57:15
of Silicon Valley and Lockheed's
57:17
participation in that. And
57:20
this is a great time to tell you about one of our other
57:22
favorite companies that is back as a sponsor
57:25
of season 12 is our good friends
57:27
at Tiny, the Berkshire Hathaway
57:30
of the internet.
57:31
Tiny, as you know, listeners, has built and acquired
57:33
the world's premier collection of wonderful
57:36
internet businesses. And this time
57:38
and this year is so great
57:41
for the Berkshire meeting and Tiny because just
57:43
like Berkshire, Tiny is now a public company.
57:46
They're a publicly traded holding company. We're so
57:48
happy for them. Yep.
57:50
And they really are becoming sort of the buyer
57:52
of choice for wonderful internet
57:54
businesses. I mean, there's a lot of people
57:57
who are talking about how great it is to buy
57:59
small companies. companies, and especially when
58:01
they're these profitable businesses with 30
58:03
to 40% operating margins.
58:05
Maybe they're doing 5, maybe they're doing 10 million in revenue.
58:08
There's a whole subcategory of Twitter devoted
58:10
to this. And I'm sort of watching
58:12
all these tweets and I'm like, okay, geniuses. Do you
58:15
remember what Andrew and Chris were talking about,
58:17
I don't know, a decade ago? And so Tiny
58:19
has sort of proved at this point
58:21
that they can do this very well, that they
58:23
can continue to compound capital, that they can let
58:26
these businesses grow and run. I mean, you think about
58:28
businesses like Dribble or
58:29
Pixel Union, Creative Market, 8020. The last 15
58:32
years,
58:33
Tiny has just
58:35
been
58:35
buying businesses. They've let
58:38
them run. They
58:39
empower their own independent managers
58:41
to run them, oftentimes the founders of the
58:43
business, but oftentimes professional CEOs
58:45
that they bring in to run them and take them to
58:47
kind of the next right stage of the company.
58:50
And what's great, especially now that Tiny is a
58:52
bigger scale and now being a public company,
58:54
they've always historically done this with bootstrapped
58:57
businesses, which they certainly still
58:59
do.
59:00
They now do it with venture-backed businesses
59:02
too, especially in this environment. There's
59:04
so many businesses over the last couple of years
59:06
that took VC dollars and kind
59:08
of no longer make sense in a VC portfolio.
59:11
And these companies used to be orphaned within
59:13
venture firms. It was really a
59:16
less than ideal situation, but Tiny can
59:18
now come in and acquire those companies and
59:20
has been doing that to great effect. Yep.
59:23
If you're evaluating your next fundraising round and you're
59:25
sort of looking at actually what your
59:27
business's natural growth rate is or natural
59:30
margin profile, and you're like, you know what? This
59:32
is not going to be a $10 billion
59:34
Uber style business. This is just a regular
59:37
good business on the internet.
59:39
I think you should talk to Tiny. It ends up being a
59:41
total win for everyone. And this is a product
59:43
that absolutely needs to exist in the market,
59:45
especially, especially in this
59:47
moment. Shoot them a note, hi at tiny.com
59:50
and just tell them that Ben and David sent you.
59:53
Okay, David. So I had forgotten
59:55
about this story. I knew a little bit
59:57
of it from watching Steve Blank's great.
59:59
talk maybe five, eight years
1:00:02
ago, the secret history of Silicon Valley.
1:00:04
But you sort of found the last 20 minutes
1:00:07
and then just dug in like a splinter
1:00:10
on this particular moment in history
1:00:13
and how it is all tied into Lockheed
1:00:15
Martin. So where are we going? Yeah. Well,
1:00:17
and it's even lesser known than that. Only certain
1:00:20
versions of that talk that Steve has given
1:00:22
contain the Lockheed story. So
1:00:25
much of it has only recently been declassified.
1:00:27
A lot of it, even after he first started giving
1:00:29
this
1:00:29
talk. So what really turned
1:00:32
me onto this was some of the chapters in
1:00:34
Beyond the Horizons, even though that book
1:00:36
was written in the late 90s. I started
1:00:38
digging in and then I started watching some YouTube
1:00:40
videos with some of the people involved in this. And I was
1:00:42
like, oh, my God,
1:00:44
there is this incredible story
1:00:47
here that we don't realize.
1:00:48
Yes. In typical David Rosenthal
1:00:50
fashion, you sent me a note the other day
1:00:53
and said you have to listen to this starting at
1:00:55
eight minutes and 50 seconds. And I was like, what is this?
1:00:57
And I click and it's a guy at a podium
1:01:00
with a terrible recording set up
1:01:03
from the IEEE Silicon Valley
1:01:05
History videos. So Industry Association.
1:01:07
This thing has 124 views after being posted seven years ago. Incredible.
1:01:14
This stuff is buried. I honestly
1:01:16
can't believe it. And I'm so glad that
1:01:18
we get to tell it here.
1:01:20
All right. Let's set the context. So
1:01:23
if we rewind back to World War Two, one
1:01:26
thing we kind of mentioned here now as
1:01:28
we were talking about the U-2 and the Russians tracking
1:01:30
it on radar, but we didn't talk about during
1:01:32
World War Two
1:01:34
was the importance of radar. Now,
1:01:37
so much of World War Two was an air
1:01:39
war, both in Europe and then especially
1:01:41
in the Pacific.
1:01:43
And the development of both radar
1:01:45
and anti-radar technologies was
1:01:47
paramount in the war efforts. Yes,
1:01:50
there was lots of land based fighting and tanks and
1:01:52
all that stuff. But World War Two was the first
1:01:54
real air war.
1:01:56
And obviously that importance of
1:01:58
radar continued into the cold.
1:01:59
War just like we were talking about with U2 flights.
1:02:03
Now during World War II, where
1:02:06
was all of the US and allied
1:02:08
radar work and research being done?
1:02:11
It was primarily being done out
1:02:13
of two institutions in Boston, MIT
1:02:17
with the Radiation Laboratory or
1:02:19
the RAD Lab, and
1:02:22
Harvard with the Harvard Radio
1:02:25
Research Laboratory. Now here's what's
1:02:27
interesting.
1:02:28
Other of these two labs at MIT and
1:02:30
Harvard existed before the war. The government
1:02:33
directed MIT and Harvard
1:02:35
to set them up as part of the war effort.
1:02:37
They didn't exist before and then MIT
1:02:40
and Harvard, very fortunately
1:02:42
for California and Silicon Valley, shut them
1:02:44
down after the war.
1:02:47
Now it turns out that
1:02:49
the head of the Harvard Lab was
1:02:52
a professor named Frederick Terman.
1:02:55
That might ring some bells for people, especially people who went
1:02:57
to Stanford. Terman was
1:02:59
probably the world's leading expert
1:03:02
on radio engineering and also
1:03:04
vacuum tubes and early computing.
1:03:07
Except Terman
1:03:08
wasn't actually a Harvard professor.
1:03:12
Terman was a Stanford professor. He was
1:03:14
just on loan to Harvard during
1:03:16
the war years because that's where
1:03:18
the government set up
1:03:20
the radio labs. The government allocated
1:03:22
millions and millions of dollars of funding to Harvard
1:03:25
and MIT and something like $50,000 to Stanford. All
1:03:28
of the funding for this was Harvard and
1:03:30
MIT. Yes, they assembled all
1:03:33
of the world's experts and Terman was arguably
1:03:35
one of, if not the leading world expert
1:03:38
in radio engineering, assembled them there
1:03:40
in Boston, I
1:03:41
guess in Cambridge at Harvard and MIT.
1:03:44
Cambridge residents would get mad at us if we say Boston. After
1:03:47
the war, Terman comes back to
1:03:49
Stanford because Harvard shut down the lab. He
1:03:52
comes back to Stanford and he
1:03:54
does three things. First, he
1:03:57
recruits away all
1:03:58
of the best people.
1:03:59
that he worked with at the Harvard Radio
1:04:02
Lab from universities all over the country, he
1:04:04
recruits them to Stanford. And he gives them
1:04:07
tenure immediately. Yes.
1:04:09
He's like, I want to make this deal as sweet
1:04:11
as possible for you because I want to will
1:04:14
Stanford into existence as
1:04:16
an engineering institution.
1:04:18
Yes, of the highest order.
1:04:20
So that's one. Two,
1:04:22
soon after he gets back to Stanford, he becomes
1:04:25
the provost of the entire university.
1:04:28
And as provost, he
1:04:30
completely changes the way tech
1:04:32
transfer is done at Stanford. No
1:04:34
other university has as good of a tech
1:04:36
transfer policy as Stanford. They're notoriously
1:04:39
friendly. Yes, notoriously friendly and
1:04:41
everywhere else, including Harvard,
1:04:43
MIT, Princeton, blah, blah, blah, notoriously unfriendly
1:04:46
and hard to work with.
1:04:47
The classic story is Stanford
1:04:49
owned 1% of Google at spin out, which
1:04:52
ended up making them an ungodly
1:04:54
amount of money because of how big Google became.
1:04:56
And if that were at other universities, they would have
1:04:58
said 50% is what we need to keep,
1:05:01
or 33% is what we need to keep. And they would
1:05:03
have smothered the innovation before it could become
1:05:05
commercially viable. Now,
1:05:06
I sort of in the back of my mind knew
1:05:08
this because I had watched Steve Blank's talk
1:05:10
many years ago. But I kind of forgotten. I just
1:05:12
thought it was like, oh, well, that's because Stanford and
1:05:15
Silicon Valley, like, we get it. We're smart.
1:05:17
Not that we're smarter, but there's this attitude of, if
1:05:19
you're in Silicon Valley, even to this day, you're
1:05:21
like, yeah, we get how the culture works
1:05:23
here. And the East Coast doesn't get it. As
1:05:26
if this somehow existed a priori, because
1:05:28
it was just in the water and came from nowhere.
1:05:31
Not at all. It's all thanks to Terman
1:05:34
and World War II and his experience at the
1:05:36
Radiolab.
1:05:37
When he becomes provost, he's still
1:05:40
a super devoted patriot. He knows
1:05:42
how important
1:05:44
this work is that it was doing World War
1:05:46
II, and he knows it's just as if not more
1:05:48
important during the Cold War. So
1:05:50
what he does is he encourages
1:05:53
students and professors to leave Stanford
1:05:56
and go set up companies and work
1:05:58
for defense firms and work for the military.
1:06:00
not to make money, but to be
1:06:02
like in the nation's service. Take
1:06:05
the research and the people who are doing the research
1:06:07
out, start a brand new company.
1:06:10
He would try to help you find funding, which
1:06:12
at that point, venture capital didn't exist. So
1:06:14
he was introducing you to customers who could
1:06:16
sort of preorder from you to fund your research.
1:06:20
And he basically believed that a commercial
1:06:22
ecosystem leads to more innovation
1:06:25
than one that is purely happening in academia
1:06:28
and thus could better serve the
1:06:30
needs of the nation. Customers.
1:06:34
Customer. Customer. Hang
1:06:36
on to that thought for one second.
1:06:38
If you were doing all of this 10 years before,
1:06:40
the university would have looked at you and said, what are you doing?
1:06:43
You're encouraging this stuff to go away
1:06:45
from us. It would have been career suicide in
1:06:47
academia to do this.
1:06:49
Instead, at Stanford, it becomes the
1:06:51
best thing you can do for your career.
1:06:53
Because in Terman's mind, it's the best thing you can do
1:06:55
for your country.
1:06:57
Okay, so that was number two. Number
1:06:59
three,
1:07:00
he carves off a
1:07:02
big part of the Stanford campus. Now if you've ever been to
1:07:04
the Stanford campus,
1:07:06
my God, I was so lucky to spend two years there.
1:07:08
It's like paved in gold. It's literally Shangri-La. They
1:07:11
have so much land. It's the most
1:07:13
beautiful, like idyllic place in the world. And
1:07:15
like 80% of the land is still undeveloped. Yeah,
1:07:18
they own like all the way out to the ocean, I think, like it's crazy.
1:07:21
So he carves off a part of
1:07:23
the Stanford campus and develops
1:07:25
it
1:07:25
to be leased out as commercial
1:07:28
space to corporations and
1:07:30
the government
1:07:31
to come, people to start companies, companies to
1:07:33
come to build to participate on this ecosystem
1:07:36
all right there on campus. It's initially
1:07:38
called the Stanford Industrial Park.
1:07:41
Today, it's called the Stanford Research
1:07:43
Park. It still exists if you've ever been
1:07:45
there. It's basically all of the
1:07:48
office buildings up and down page mill road in
1:07:50
Palo Alto. So it's HP
1:07:53
and Hewlett Packard. We'll talk about that in a minute. It's
1:07:55
Tesla's landlord today. It's VMware. It's
1:07:58
where Xerox Park was. It's where Next was.
1:07:59
was in Steve Jobs. It's where Facebook's
1:08:02
office was for a while. This is where Theranos
1:08:04
was, my God. So
1:08:07
you might be listening like, well, this is cool. Maybe
1:08:09
I knew this stuff. Maybe I didn't. This is really fun. Silicon
1:08:11
Valley history. What does this have to do with
1:08:13
Lockheed?
1:08:14
Well, one of
1:08:17
the very first tenants
1:08:18
of Stanford Industrial Park,
1:08:20
then you were talking about customers, customer,
1:08:24
who would go on to become the
1:08:26
single largest employer
1:08:28
in the area, in Proto
1:08:30
Silicon Valley,
1:08:32
by a huge margin,
1:08:34
was a new secret division
1:08:38
of Lockheed. This blew
1:08:40
my mind. The secret division is called
1:08:42
the Lockheed Missile Systems
1:08:45
Division. Later to be renamed
1:08:48
the Lockheed Missiles and Space
1:08:50
Company.
1:08:51
And what
1:08:52
LMSC, Lockheed Missiles and Space
1:08:54
Company, did.
1:08:56
I honestly think it is bigger
1:08:58
impact to the country, to the world, and
1:09:00
certainly on business to Lockheed and
1:09:02
to Silicon Valley than Skunk Works. This story
1:09:05
is of a scale, I don't know,
1:09:07
that we've ever really told on acquired.
1:09:09
There are a lot of Skunk Works devotees, David.
1:09:11
That is quite the assertion to say that this
1:09:13
is a bigger deal.
1:09:15
Well, let's talk about it. Listeners, you can judge. They
1:09:17
patterned themselves after Skunk Works and took so
1:09:19
many of the Skunk Works management principles
1:09:22
up to Silicon Valley.
1:09:24
I was reading Skunk Works, I'm like, oh yeah, so
1:09:26
many of these principles, they sound like Silicon Valley
1:09:29
principles. Well, there's a reason for that.
1:09:31
Okay,
1:09:32
so Lockheed makes the decision to
1:09:34
start this new Missile Systems
1:09:36
Division in 1954.
1:09:39
But it becomes so much
1:09:41
more than that.
1:09:42
Obviously, this is also top secret stuff,
1:09:44
just like Skunk Works. So just
1:09:46
like Skunk Works, they set up the
1:09:49
new Missiles Division in Burbank,
1:09:51
also in an unmarked building. They literally just
1:09:53
copy-paste Skunk Works right there in Burbank.
1:09:56
And so it starts in Southern California. It
1:09:58
does. But...
1:10:00
There's two problems with that. First,
1:10:03
it's kind of unwieldy for a
1:10:05
big company like Lockheed
1:10:07
to have not one, but two super
1:10:09
secret unmarked divisions right
1:10:12
there on the main campus, you know, that aren't supposed
1:10:14
to know about each other or anything else going on. Like you start
1:10:16
getting into weird territory quickly.
1:10:19
But it's important that
1:10:20
the missiles division did start there because they
1:10:22
took, as I said, a lot of Skunk Works management
1:10:24
practices.
1:10:26
The bigger problem is that it
1:10:28
turns out that building missiles is
1:10:31
a very different discipline than
1:10:33
building airplanes. Because
1:10:36
unlike airplanes, you don't have a pilot in
1:10:39
the missiles. So you need missiles
1:10:41
guidance systems.
1:10:44
And that means that you need
1:10:46
radar and you need computing.
1:10:49
And those two things are not what Southern California
1:10:52
is good at. But you know what's
1:10:54
really good at those things?
1:10:56
Fred Terman
1:10:57
up at Stanford. And everybody
1:10:59
that he's recruited, literally the best minds in the world
1:11:01
at all of that, who are now at Stanford and
1:11:03
who are now being encouraged to go
1:11:06
spin out
1:11:06
and start companies who might just be subcontractors
1:11:09
to a big missile system that you're trying to
1:11:12
build. Interesting.
1:11:13
And this is cool. This is a part of the research that you did that
1:11:15
I don't know much about.
1:11:17
Yeah, this is great. So
1:11:19
the next year in 1955, Lockheed moves the
1:11:24
missile systems division out of
1:11:26
Burbank
1:11:27
and up 101 to the Stanford
1:11:29
industrial
1:11:31
park. The very same
1:11:33
Stanford industrial park that Fred Terman
1:11:36
just carved out of the Stanford campus and
1:11:38
developed on Page Mill Road. And
1:11:41
Lockheed becomes one of the very
1:11:43
first and biggest tenants of
1:11:46
the Stanford now research park and is still
1:11:48
there
1:11:49
to this day. Wow. Now,
1:11:51
they can't actually do everything they wanna do on
1:11:54
the Stanford campus. You're not gonna build a missile and
1:11:56
test it on the Stanford campus.
1:11:58
So Lockheed.
1:11:59
pretty quickly after they established
1:12:02
themselves in Palo Alto, they also
1:12:04
buy 275 acres just down the
1:12:07
road in Sunnyvale and they build
1:12:10
a huge campus there, 137 buildings.
1:12:12
So when Lockheed buys this, the
1:12:16
population of Sunnyvale is less than 10,000 people.
1:12:19
What? Lockheed built
1:12:21
Sunnyvale.
1:12:22
I didn't realize that. Wow.
1:12:25
So how many people would eventually work
1:12:28
in Sunnyvale at Lockheed?
1:12:29
So by the end of
1:12:31
the decade in 1959, just four
1:12:34
years later, Lockheed Missile
1:12:36
Systems employs almost 20,000 people
1:12:39
in Palo Alto and Sunnyvale. And
1:12:42
a few years later, by the mid 60s, they
1:12:44
would employ 30,000 people.
1:12:46
This makes Lockheed by
1:12:49
far the largest employer
1:12:52
in this brand new proto Silicon Valley.
1:12:54
I mean, remember, I just said Lockheed built Sunnyvale. You
1:12:56
think of Sunnyvale Silicon Valley today, like Yahoo
1:12:59
and Intel and all that Cisco, there was
1:13:01
none of that Lockheed built
1:13:03
it. So Hewlett
1:13:05
Packard was the largest tech
1:13:07
company computing company, Silicon
1:13:09
Valley company at the time. Hewlett
1:13:11
and Packard were students of Fred Terman
1:13:14
and Fred encouraged them to spin
1:13:16
out and start Hewlett Packard.
1:13:18
They were the largest new tech company.
1:13:20
They only had 3000 people. 123. Lockheed had 30,000 people. Whoa.
1:13:22
Oh my
1:13:23
God. It's funny story. I
1:13:29
knew at least as of 2009, that
1:13:32
the Lockheed campus in Sunnyvale was large.
1:13:35
Because when I was interning at Cisco, I went
1:13:37
on a run one morning, and I was just sort of like exploring
1:13:39
around and I ran into Lockheed's
1:13:42
campus. And I got chased down by a security
1:13:45
guard who's like, well, you can't just run in here. And
1:13:47
I had my headphones in. I thought I was in big trouble.
1:13:50
Yeah. They had this huge structure called the
1:13:52
blue cube that has since been disassembled.
1:13:55
It's not there anymore, but you need
1:13:57
a big hanger
1:13:58
that you're going to build.
1:13:59
missiles it and they end up building a lot more than
1:14:02
missiles we're going to talk about.
1:14:03
And you mentioned they need radio and
1:14:05
they need computing. Computing basically
1:14:07
wasn't a thing yet. I mean Shockley co-invented
1:14:10
the transistor just a few years before, started
1:14:12
Shockley Semiconductor in 1955. The
1:14:15
same time as Lockheed is coming
1:14:17
to Silicon Valley. Right. And
1:14:19
of course Shockley is a predecessor to Fairchild
1:14:21
Semiconductor, which is a predecessor to Intel.
1:14:24
So like they've got Terman's
1:14:26
radio background, but there
1:14:28
really weren't any people with compute
1:14:31
experience yet. That was all happening concurrently
1:14:34
all around them in Sunnyvale and Palo Alto.
1:14:37
So we talked about this
1:14:39
a bunch actually on the first Sequoia
1:14:41
Capital episode when we were telling Don Valentine's
1:14:43
story. And at the time when we
1:14:45
were telling the story, we're like, Oh, you know, Don, he was
1:14:48
so legendary before he started Sequoia.
1:14:50
He was the head of sales at Fairchild Semiconductor
1:14:53
and the head of sales at National Semiconductor.
1:14:56
And we sort of glossed over to, we were like, yeah,
1:14:58
you know, he was mostly selling to defense companies.
1:15:01
Well, who do you think he was selling to?
1:15:04
I mean, he was selling to defense company.
1:15:07
Yes. Now he was also selling around
1:15:09
the country to other defense contractors too.
1:15:12
Lockheed wasn't the only company that was
1:15:14
working on missiles, but I think they
1:15:16
were the only one that was working on missiles in Silicon
1:15:18
Valley. Wow. And God did they
1:15:20
buy a lot of product
1:15:23
out of all these startups and all of these
1:15:25
Silicon startups that are coming out of
1:15:27
Stanford and coming out of Shockley and just
1:15:29
getting sprung up right there in Silicon Valley.
1:15:32
I can't believe that there
1:15:34
were 10 times more employees
1:15:37
at Lockheed in Silicon Valley
1:15:39
than at HP in the late 50s.
1:15:42
Yes, it is totally insane. And
1:15:45
so many people came through Lockheed
1:15:48
into Silicon Valley, including
1:15:51
one Jerry Wozniak
1:15:54
who moved himself and his young family
1:15:56
out to this new Silicon
1:15:59
Valley. Silicon Valley to become an
1:16:02
engineer at Lockheed
1:16:04
Missiles and Space Company. That's right.
1:16:07
Woz is dead. The reason that Steve
1:16:09
Wozniak grew up in Silicon Valley is
1:16:11
directly because of Lockheed
1:16:13
Martin. Oh, that is awesome. No
1:16:17
Lockheed, no Woz in Silicon Valley,
1:16:19
no Apple. No Apple. Crazy.
1:16:23
Not to mention, there's a really interesting
1:16:25
point here, which is you wouldn't have this open
1:16:29
commercial
1:16:31
spirit to Silicon
1:16:33
Valley without Terman
1:16:35
and without the belief that the right thing
1:16:37
for America was for all these companies
1:16:40
to become companies instead of academic research
1:16:43
or spread around in other parts of the country. It creates
1:16:45
the Silicon Valley ethos and creates Silicon
1:16:47
Valley as the place where that ethos
1:16:49
would thrive. And it's worth pointing out
1:16:52
for people who don't spend a lot of time in the Bay
1:16:54
Area, this has absolutely nothing
1:16:56
to do with San Francisco. Nowadays
1:16:58
it's sort of this big blended soup of companies
1:17:01
that have offices in both places and you can
1:17:03
drive or take the tech train between them. Yeah,
1:17:05
that's a recent phenomenon. San Francisco
1:17:08
is a completely different universe at this
1:17:10
point that is in zero part responsible
1:17:13
for the growth of Silicon Valley.
1:17:15
Yeah. And before this time, before the 50s,
1:17:18
there was no Silicon. It was called the Valley of
1:17:20
Hearts Delight. That was the name
1:17:22
for it. It wasn't Silicon Valley. Huh.
1:17:25
Wild. Okay.
1:17:27
So what was Lockheed actually doing
1:17:29
there? We talked about them working on intercontinental
1:17:31
ballistic missiles, ICBMs and missile
1:17:34
defense systems. I think they probably
1:17:36
did continue to work on
1:17:37
that. But there were two projects that this
1:17:40
new
1:17:41
division of Lockheed
1:17:42
took on that really
1:17:44
changed history
1:17:46
and both of them together became,
1:17:49
for Lockheed at least, and the parent
1:17:51
company, by far the biggest
1:17:54
driver of profits for
1:17:56
the coming decades. And really, as we'll see,
1:17:59
this division.
1:17:59
you know, not skunkworks, this division kept
1:18:02
Lockheed alive. Lockheed would have absolutely
1:18:05
died without this division.
1:18:07
So what were these projects? One went
1:18:11
up to space, as perhaps
1:18:13
is obvious, and we foreshadowed and literally
1:18:15
is in the name of the company, the Lockheed Missiles and
1:18:17
Space Corporation.
1:18:19
And the other one went down
1:18:22
under the oceans. So let's talk
1:18:24
about that one first, because I think it happened
1:18:27
first chronologically. So
1:18:30
submarines had
1:18:32
obviously been a thing since World War II and
1:18:34
even before that, back to World War I.
1:18:37
There's lots of advantages to submarines
1:18:39
during wartime. They're stealthy. They
1:18:42
can basically travel anywhere in the world. You
1:18:45
can stay hidden for long periods of time, especially
1:18:47
once nuclear submarines are developed that can stay
1:18:49
underwater for months at a time, self-powered.
1:18:53
They're both a great offensive and a great defensive
1:18:56
weapon during periods of active war.
1:18:59
But during the Cold War, they're kind of
1:19:01
useless, because
1:19:03
if you wanted to have a chess
1:19:05
piece in position to strike a land-based
1:19:08
target,
1:19:09
if you could even do that at all with a submarine,
1:19:11
you got to get the submarine pretty dang close to
1:19:13
the land, which means close to Russia, which
1:19:15
means they know you're there and that's a provocation.
1:19:19
Unless somebody
1:19:22
could maybe somehow figure out a
1:19:24
way to fire an intercontinental
1:19:27
ballistic missile out of a submarine
1:19:30
and go up into the air and into space
1:19:32
and then hit a land-based target far, far
1:19:34
away. Now, this seems crazy.
1:19:37
It's hard enough to make this happen from the
1:19:39
ground.
1:19:41
You're talking about doing this from the sea with
1:19:43
all the waves and the lack of stability.
1:19:46
No way this could happen. This thing has to thrust
1:19:48
through air after it thrusts through
1:19:50
water.
1:19:51
Oh, well, you're making the leap already
1:19:53
that you would fire it underwater at first
1:19:56
when the Navy contracts Lockheed to work
1:19:58
on this in 1950.
1:19:59
35 to build the Navy's
1:20:02
fleet ballistic missile system. It's FBM.
1:20:05
The idea is they're going to fire these things from the
1:20:07
surface of the ocean. The submarine's going to rise
1:20:09
up. They're going to stabilize it in
1:20:12
water and they're going to fire off a
1:20:14
missile from the deck of a ship or a surface
1:20:16
submarine. You could imagine another
1:20:18
issue, which is these things have rockets
1:20:20
on them. So you have to not destroy the
1:20:22
launch pad, which is the submarine full
1:20:25
of American humans while
1:20:27
launching it.
1:20:28
Yeah, this is a big challenge. The
1:20:30
reason
1:20:31
that it was worth trying
1:20:33
was that if you could
1:20:36
create a naval based intercontinental
1:20:40
nuclear strike capability,
1:20:42
it completely changes the strategic
1:20:45
landscape of deterrence and
1:20:47
first strike versus second strike and retaliation.
1:20:50
So what we were really
1:20:52
afraid of, we thought the Soviets
1:20:55
would pursue a first strike policy if
1:20:57
they felt they were able to.
1:21:00
The way that they would do that is if they
1:21:02
felt that they could in that first strike
1:21:04
knock out all of our
1:21:06
nuclear capabilities. If they could
1:21:09
target all of our land base
1:21:11
ICBMs,
1:21:13
incapacitate them, then we would be
1:21:15
incapable of responding
1:21:17
with a second strike and then they could blow up our cities
1:21:19
and whatnot.
1:21:21
Now,
1:21:22
if all of a sudden you have a mobile
1:21:24
naval based missile system,
1:21:27
well, that completely changes the chess board. It's quite the
1:21:29
deterrent.
1:21:30
Quite the deterrent. You can now pretty
1:21:33
much guarantee as long as you
1:21:35
can keep a fleet of nuclear submarines operating
1:21:37
at all times that you can't take
1:21:40
them out and they can move around and be
1:21:42
anywhere. And so if you launch a strike,
1:21:44
they're going to launch right back and
1:21:47
first strike is now off the table. This is a huge
1:21:50
strategic win if you could put this actually
1:21:53
operationally in practice.
1:21:55
The other medium, if you will,
1:21:57
location
1:21:59
that could change the dimension two for
1:22:01
doing this
1:22:02
would of course be space. If you had
1:22:04
nuclear missiles up in space, that also
1:22:06
changes the dimension. And this among many,
1:22:09
many reasons is why when
1:22:11
the Soviet Union launches Sputnik
1:22:14
into space in October 1957, even
1:22:17
though Sputnik itself was far from having
1:22:20
nuclear ICBM capabilities,
1:22:23
the Soviets getting to space first was truly
1:22:25
terrifying.
1:22:26
I can't imagine how disconcerting it is in an era
1:22:28
that,
1:22:29
you know, now there are tens of thousands of satellites
1:22:31
orbiting the earth all the time.
1:22:33
When that was a brand new thing, when you could look up at
1:22:35
night, if you could see Sputnik and you're like,
1:22:37
Oh my God, that thing any day now could have
1:22:39
a nuke aimed at us. Right.
1:22:42
Okay, so back to the sea. It turned
1:22:44
out like we were talking about a minute ago that firing
1:22:47
ICBMs from the deck of a surfaced
1:22:50
ship, be it a submarine or otherwise,
1:22:52
bad idea, basically impossible.
1:22:55
But firing missiles from under the
1:22:57
ocean was doable. And
1:23:00
Lockheed did it with the help of Silicon
1:23:02
Valley.
1:23:03
So in December 1955, the Navy awards
1:23:07
this contract to Lockheed.
1:23:09
The name of the project was Polaris.
1:23:12
People might've heard of Polaris missiles just
1:23:15
over four years later after the contract
1:23:17
is awarded in 1960.
1:23:18
The very first US
1:23:22
nuclear ballistic missile equipped submarine
1:23:24
sets sail on its patrol and everything we
1:23:26
just talked about
1:23:28
is operationalized equipped with Lockheed
1:23:31
Polaris A1
1:23:33
under sea fired nuclear
1:23:35
warheads. Ballistic missiles could
1:23:38
reach land based targets up to 1200 nautical
1:23:41
miles away from wherever the submarine
1:23:43
was when it launched it.
1:23:45
And it was all built out of Silicon
1:23:47
Valley
1:23:47
with many subcontractors all over the place. Right.
1:23:50
I'm assuming Lockheed doesn't actually make
1:23:53
the nuclear warheads, right? Like that
1:23:55
was still happening in national labs at Sandia
1:23:58
and all the places that were pioneers.
1:23:59
during World War II. Yeah,
1:24:02
Lockheed did not make the submarines, nor did they make
1:24:04
the
1:24:05
nuclear warheads. I think a
1:24:07
lot of this work was done out of Sandia, which
1:24:09
we talked about on the Amazon episode. Oh yeah,
1:24:12
Bezos' dad worked there, right? Grandfather,
1:24:14
Bezos' grandfather was the head of Sandia,
1:24:16
which was in New Mexico, the military
1:24:19
nuclear program,
1:24:21
the division of the US overall nuclear
1:24:23
program, I
1:24:25
think was out of Los Alamos, but Sandia
1:24:27
was the military arm of it.
1:24:29
Which weirdly, Lockheed for
1:24:32
many years actually had a contract to
1:24:34
manage Sandia, because there's some sort
1:24:36
of strange partnership that happens where the
1:24:38
federal government hires government contractors
1:24:40
to manage national labs. Yeah,
1:24:43
to enable this strategic
1:24:45
chess piece, the key thing is
1:24:47
the missiles. Nuclear submarines already
1:24:49
existed, nuclear warheads already existed.
1:24:52
The challenge here was create a system
1:24:54
by which you could launch a missile from under
1:24:57
the ocean out of a submarine. Man, I just
1:24:59
gotta say, it is so fortunate
1:25:01
and insane to me that
1:25:03
neither side ever launched.
1:25:06
All the deterrence
1:25:08
for all the scary things that could
1:25:10
have come out of it and all the itchy trigger fingers and everybody
1:25:13
getting close, it never happened.
1:25:15
That is a big applause
1:25:17
to humanity that we could have done
1:25:20
this and no one did.
1:25:21
Well, this is one of the things that I mentioned at the top
1:25:23
of the episode.
1:25:24
Doing this research sort of changed my mind
1:25:26
on
1:25:27
the war machine aspect of Lockheed
1:25:30
and the military and the military industrial complex.
1:25:33
But I think people really believed, and I think there's a good chance
1:25:35
this was reality, it was
1:25:37
building all of these systems and
1:25:39
advancing all of this capability that
1:25:42
prevented it from being used.
1:25:44
If we hadn't built this stuff, there's
1:25:46
a good chance Russia would have done a first strike.
1:25:49
Yeah, it's crazy.
1:25:51
Okay, so Lockheed after four years successfully
1:25:53
does the underwater ICBM
1:25:56
launch.
1:25:57
Yes, and then that quickly
1:25:59
leads. to more successor
1:26:02
programs and developing the technology further.
1:26:04
The Polaris becomes the
1:26:06
Poseidon is the next program, and then
1:26:08
the Trident. The Trident missiles
1:26:11
had a 5,000 mile range
1:26:14
and carry a
1:26:16
hugely destructive nuclear payload.
1:26:18
Unbelievable. Terrifying.
1:26:20
All right. So
1:26:22
we just told this incredible story about
1:26:25
LMSC taking
1:26:28
Silicon Valley
1:26:29
under the ocean.
1:26:31
This program, Polaris,
1:26:33
Poseidon, Trident, for most people listening,
1:26:36
especially if you're American,
1:26:38
these names aren't surprising to you. You've heard
1:26:40
of these programs. You are aware that
1:26:43
the US starting in the
1:26:45
1960s had nuclear
1:26:47
submarines carrying intercontinental
1:26:50
ballistic missiles. Yep.
1:26:52
It was, if you think back to the kind of
1:26:54
the chess game, it was in the
1:26:56
government's best interest for
1:26:59
the Soviets to know that we had
1:27:01
these. The point was deterrence.
1:27:04
In fact, we probably should have bragged about this
1:27:06
even if it wasn't real. Right. Maybe
1:27:08
it wasn't. Who knows? We
1:27:10
should have had inflatable subs floating around that we thought were nuclear.
1:27:13
Maybe it's all the cover. Maybe all the money that went into Silicon
1:27:15
Valley. No,
1:27:17
I don't think that was the case. Either way, you don't want
1:27:19
to find out. Speaking of cover, do you know about
1:27:22
the things we did on top of the factories
1:27:24
when we were building airplanes? Oh, yes.
1:27:27
And Disney was involved. Yeah.
1:27:29
Starting way back in World War II, but I think continuing
1:27:31
after that, in the Burbank facilities at
1:27:34
Lockheed,
1:27:34
I know Boeing in the Seattle area
1:27:36
and other places too, built basically
1:27:38
these burlap cities on
1:27:41
top of factories that looked
1:27:43
like suburbs, complete with 3D cars and
1:27:46
trees and stuff so that anybody
1:27:48
who was creating a spy plane and flying
1:27:50
overhead would mistake
1:27:52
our manufacturing facilities for
1:27:55
something innocuous. Yeah, I think it was spy planes and also
1:27:57
during World War II bombers.
1:27:59
never made it to the West Coast that they wouldn't know
1:28:02
where to bomb. I'm pretty
1:28:04
sure that Disney Imagineering was involved
1:28:06
in creating these sets like they made
1:28:08
for Disneyland.
1:28:10
It's crazy how sometimes it's in our
1:28:12
best interest to make
1:28:14
the adversary aware of our capabilities
1:28:17
and sometimes we want to disguise capabilities.
1:28:19
It's really interesting. Super interesting.
1:28:22
Okay, so if you remember back when
1:28:24
we pressed pause on the skunk work story and
1:28:27
moved up the state of California up the coast
1:28:29
to Silicon Valley,
1:28:31
we'd said that when
1:28:33
Gary Powers and the U2 was shut down in
1:28:35
May 1960 that supposedly
1:28:38
this was the end of US observational
1:28:41
capabilities in the Soviet
1:28:43
Union and that it was for about three
1:28:46
months, but nobody knew it. Well,
1:28:50
LMSC is the reason
1:28:52
that we got our
1:28:55
eyes back in the sky.
1:28:56
And you might know that eventually after
1:28:59
the U2, Skunk Works would
1:29:01
create the next great spy
1:29:03
plane, the SR-71, which we will get to,
1:29:05
but that wasn't for a little while. So this intelligence
1:29:08
gap was filled by this secret,
1:29:11
not very well-known project.
1:29:13
I think a lot of people in
1:29:15
the military who did know about this stuff,
1:29:18
this is heretical to say because it's so
1:29:20
beloved,
1:29:21
but I think the Blackbird was
1:29:24
a decoy. We were getting everything we needed
1:29:26
from space. We just didn't want anybody
1:29:28
to know about it.
1:29:29
And so everybody's now is like, oh, the Blackbird, it's
1:29:31
such a shame the government shut it down. It
1:29:34
was never used to its potential.
1:29:36
It kind of never needed to be because
1:29:38
of LMSC in space.
1:29:40
Whoa. All right, I'm listening. Okay.
1:29:43
You got a lot of hairs on my arms. Yeah, I know.
1:29:45
I'm getting mad over here. People are probably getting
1:29:47
very mad. Here we go.
1:29:50
So when you think about America
1:29:52
and space and the US space program,
1:29:54
you think of course about
1:29:56
NASA, Gemini and Apollo,
1:29:58
Mercury, Kennedy. putting a man on the moon,
1:30:02
all that amazing stuff, which
1:30:05
for sure happened and was happening. All
1:30:07
of that was basic
1:30:10
science research. Nobody
1:30:13
working on those programs, public
1:30:16
observing it, like
1:30:17
it would be crazy to think they were gonna be actual
1:30:20
applications in space anytime
1:30:23
soon.
1:30:24
There's no infrastructure, like these are science missions. This
1:30:26
is research. And even Sputnik
1:30:29
on the Russian side, Sputnik was
1:30:31
a research festival. It was like the size of, I don't know, like
1:30:34
a bowling ball. I think it was a little bigger, but like it
1:30:36
was
1:30:36
very, very simple. It was
1:30:39
a long, long,
1:30:41
long, long time before you went
1:30:43
from those initial science missions
1:30:46
to
1:30:46
applications in space,
1:30:49
or so everybody thought. Because
1:30:51
in parallel, there was a secret
1:30:54
US space program
1:30:56
being run by Lockheed Missiles
1:30:59
in Space Corporation
1:31:01
out of Silicon Valley. And
1:31:04
in basically the same
1:31:06
timeframe as the initial NASA
1:31:09
missions, the initial Mercury, I think
1:31:11
were the first missions. Mercury, Gemini,
1:31:13
Apollo, yep. Yeah, basically concurrently
1:31:15
with that, they got a fully
1:31:18
operational
1:31:20
observational spy satellite
1:31:22
system
1:31:24
up into space and functioning at the same
1:31:26
time.
1:31:26
How did we launch them with nobody
1:31:29
laid out? There was a cover story for what these
1:31:32
things were. I think it was called the Discoverer
1:31:34
program.
1:31:35
I believe the cover story was that this was like
1:31:38
life form research in space, like they
1:31:40
were sending animals up to space like monkeys
1:31:42
to prepare for manned space flight. That
1:31:44
was the cover story. They may have sent some monkeys
1:31:47
up there, but that was not the point. The
1:31:49
point was to get these reconnaissance satellites up
1:31:51
to space.
1:31:52
So the first program
1:31:55
was called Corona. And
1:31:57
you should Google about it and read. There's a great.
1:31:59
declassification document
1:32:02
story
1:32:02
that the government put out in 1995 when they declassified
1:32:06
this stuff and the Wikipedia page is pretty
1:32:08
good. Yeah,
1:32:09
I downloaded it and I have it open
1:32:11
my computer. It's pretty crazy. It
1:32:13
says secret. It has the classification on it
1:32:15
and then it's struck through. Yeah. It's literally
1:32:18
the document that was prepared in secret
1:32:20
and then declassified. I think what the
1:32:23
CIA and the National Reconnaissance Office does,
1:32:26
I think they write these stories, maybe
1:32:28
quasi in real time, so that there's documentation
1:32:31
of all this stuff and then they stamp it
1:32:33
secret and then it never gets out until it gets
1:32:35
declassified. Wow.
1:32:37
Just amazing. But on the declassification
1:32:39
website, which we'll link to in sources, you
1:32:42
can see a bunch of the pictures that
1:32:44
the corona satellite took, including
1:32:46
of the Pentagon. So you can see like something
1:32:49
you know what it looks like and you can see the level
1:32:51
of fidelity that this 1959 satellite
1:32:54
got of that.
1:32:56
Oh, let's get into it. Okay, so the name Corona.
1:32:58
There are conflicting stories of whether it comes from the
1:33:00
Corona typewriter or the Corona type
1:33:03
of cigar that apparently the Pentagon
1:33:06
official that championed this program really liked.
1:33:09
We'll never know. It's all classified. So
1:33:11
these satellites, like we've been alluding to, had
1:33:14
cameras on them.
1:33:15
The first one went up in August 1960. It
1:33:18
was built in the years leading up to
1:33:20
that by LMSC and then went up in August 1960.
1:33:24
While everything else happening in space was, you
1:33:26
know, research
1:33:27
vessels,
1:33:29
this first corona satellite had a camera
1:33:31
system on it
1:33:33
that
1:33:34
was able to photograph
1:33:36
any ground location that it
1:33:38
passed over in its orbit around the earth
1:33:41
at a resolution as low as
1:33:43
five feet
1:33:44
from space.
1:33:46
These were film systems. Now
1:33:49
the U2 camera system did
1:33:51
have a higher resolution than
1:33:54
that higher ground resolution,
1:33:56
but five feet was still
1:33:57
plenty good. And more important.
1:34:01
the corona system
1:34:02
could take photos anywhere
1:34:05
in the world on its orbit. And if
1:34:07
you had multiple of these satellites up there, you know, you could
1:34:09
pretty much blanket the earth or at least everywhere you
1:34:11
cared about
1:34:12
pretty quickly.
1:34:14
At basically any point in time, you know, they're
1:34:16
spinning around the earth. Like, yes, you can't do it
1:34:18
in real, real time, but like it doesn't take that long
1:34:20
for the thing to fly around the earth and then fly around again. Right.
1:34:24
The very first corona
1:34:26
mission, that very first satellite that went up
1:34:29
in August 1960,
1:34:30
produced greater photo coverage
1:34:33
of the Soviet Union than all
1:34:35
of the previous U2 flights combined. Five
1:34:38
years of operating the U2 program, one
1:34:41
satellite in one kind of
1:34:43
month long mission, I think it was about a month before
1:34:45
it decayed, the orbit decayed,
1:34:47
got more than all of that. Wow. No
1:34:49
need to fly a plane. No need to worry
1:34:51
about getting caught. No need to worry about the Soviets
1:34:53
knowing what was going on. No need to worry about
1:34:55
being shot down.
1:34:57
Unbelievable. There's a crazy stat over 800,000
1:35:01
images would be taken by these satellites
1:35:04
over the course of the program. They got an enormous
1:35:06
amount of coverage. Now,
1:35:08
you might be thinking as you're listening, you know, oh, I
1:35:10
know how satellites and satellite imagery works today.
1:35:13
You know, you got Google Maps, you got Starlink,
1:35:15
you know, blah, blah, blah, Starlink's communication.
1:35:17
But like communication. Yeah. How
1:35:19
did they beam these images down
1:35:22
from the ground? These were not digital
1:35:25
photography. This was film freaking
1:35:28
photograph. So you got to
1:35:30
get the film down from space is my point. Which
1:35:32
they literally did. And how
1:35:34
did they do it? They dropped it.
1:35:36
OK, so that's the craziest thing.
1:35:38
They dropped from
1:35:41
space a canister with film
1:35:43
in it.
1:35:43
Mind you, they can't mess up and expose
1:35:46
the film and ruin it. This is very delicate
1:35:48
film. They drop it in
1:35:50
a canister from orbit. It
1:35:53
enters the atmosphere and during all the heat
1:35:56
and everything. It's not like you just shove
1:35:58
it out of the saddle. They.
1:35:59
had retro rockets built into the
1:36:02
film canisters to
1:36:04
reaccelerate out of the orbit
1:36:06
and move it down to go into the atmosphere.
1:36:08
Right. Because if you just drop it out behind you, then it stays
1:36:11
in orbit. It needs to decelerate its rotational
1:36:13
velocity so that it does move closer to the
1:36:15
earth. It is in a custom designed canister
1:36:18
called the film bucket that General Electric
1:36:20
designed. It would separate
1:36:23
and start falling to the earth
1:36:25
after the incredible heat
1:36:28
and violent action of moving
1:36:30
through the atmosphere.
1:36:31
The heat shield that surrounds
1:36:34
the vehicle is jettisoned at around 60,000
1:36:37
feet. So again, where the highest airplanes
1:36:39
can start to fly and parachutes would
1:36:41
be deployed. So you've got this film canister.
1:36:44
This is my favorite part. This is so good.
1:36:46
Coming down with a parachute,
1:36:48
the capsule is designed
1:36:51
to be caught in midair
1:36:53
by a passing airplane
1:36:56
towing a claw.
1:36:58
The claw grabs the
1:37:00
parachute and they use a winch
1:37:03
to bring the film capsule into
1:37:05
the airplane. It's like those claw games
1:37:07
in the arcades, you know, like, oh, you pick up the literally,
1:37:10
they had a freaking C-130 flying
1:37:12
around with a big-ass claw to snatch
1:37:14
this thing out of the sky. Unbelievable.
1:37:17
You might say, what if the C-130, which
1:37:19
by the way, Lockheed airplane that still flies today,
1:37:21
the C-130J,
1:37:23
what if the airplane misses it? Seems
1:37:25
like that's a pretty reasonable probability when this
1:37:27
thing's falling from space and you're trying to catch it with a
1:37:29
moving object.
1:37:30
It can land at sea
1:37:32
and there's sort of a self-destruct
1:37:35
mechanism where there's a salt plug in the
1:37:37
base that dissolves after exactly
1:37:39
two days, which if that
1:37:42
happens, then the film sinks forever
1:37:44
to the bottom of the sea. So if the Navy can't retrieve
1:37:47
it within 48 hours, the salt sort
1:37:49
of dissolves enough. Because obviously what would
1:37:51
the biggest disaster be would be if somebody else
1:37:53
or the Russians got their hands on this and were like,
1:37:55
holy crap, somebody's taking photos from space of us.
1:37:58
Right?
1:37:59
The whole thing. is genius,
1:38:02
crazy, and absolutely insane
1:38:04
that it actually worked. I believe
1:38:06
it wasn't just one C-130. I
1:38:08
think they had a whole fleet of C-130s all flying around where
1:38:11
they thought this thing was going to reenter the atmosphere. You
1:38:14
would need to. Because how else are you... I mean, when you have
1:38:16
a satellite orbiting the Earth that
1:38:18
fast at, I don't know what it is, Mach
1:38:20
20-something,
1:38:21
it's pretty hard to predict exactly
1:38:24
where your tiny film canister is going to come
1:38:26
back and land. And all this happened
1:38:28
in 1960. Oh my God.
1:38:32
So, all told, the Corona satellite program
1:38:34
and LMSC also designed the
1:38:37
Agena rocket, which was the kind of
1:38:39
upper stage rocket booster that the Corona
1:38:42
satellite and other satellites, future satellites,
1:38:44
attach to. And I think they sort of pioneered
1:38:46
the concept of a second stage. Like, we
1:38:48
need a first stage to get us up, and then we need
1:38:50
a second stage to get us to a very particular
1:38:53
orbit that we care a lot about being in. So,
1:38:55
that system of the Corona
1:38:58
and the Agena was the first spacecraft
1:39:01
in history
1:39:02
to do all
1:39:03
of the following things.
1:39:05
Achieve a circular orbit,
1:39:07
achieve a polar orbit, be
1:39:09
stabilized on all three axes
1:39:12
in orbit, because you kind of needed
1:39:14
to be stabilized if you were going to take
1:39:16
photos at five foot resolution of
1:39:18
the ground,
1:39:19
be controlled by a ground command,
1:39:22
return a man-made object from
1:39:24
space,
1:39:25
propel itself from one orbit to another.
1:39:28
By the way, they returned 39,000 man-made objects from
1:39:30
space. They
1:39:33
took 2.1 million feet
1:39:35
of film, of photographs in 39,000 cans.
1:39:40
I mean,
1:39:40
any one of those things that I just mentioned, if
1:39:43
this weren't a top secret black classified
1:39:45
program for
1:39:46
what, three and a half decades, we'd
1:39:48
be all over the history books, and as
1:39:51
is, like nobody knows about this stuff.
1:39:53
Yeah,
1:39:54
it's the first, obviously, mapping of Earth from space. It's
1:39:57
this first stereo optical data from space. the
1:40:00
first reconnaissance program to fly 100 missions
1:40:02
at all, let alone one in space.
1:40:05
I mean, this thing operated for 12 years. Yeah,
1:40:09
crazy. So Corona would then lead
1:40:11
to three follow-up programs that
1:40:13
we know of, I'm sure many, many more, but
1:40:16
there are three follow-on ones that
1:40:19
LMSC did that have been declassified so
1:40:21
far. Some of these only very recently.
1:40:23
So
1:40:24
the strategy of the program evolution
1:40:27
over time
1:40:28
followed the four stages that we know of. First,
1:40:30
it was what they called see it. That
1:40:33
was Corona, just period. Can we see
1:40:35
the Soviet Union from space? Corona proved
1:40:38
that. The next phase was
1:40:40
can we see it well?
1:40:42
And then the phase after that was can we see it all?
1:40:45
And then the last phase, which is a
1:40:47
lot of the last phase is still classified
1:40:50
is see it now. So let's talk about
1:40:52
all of these. Corona, like we said was
1:40:54
just see it, get photos. But
1:40:57
the photos were at a worse resolution than
1:40:59
what the U2 was able to achieve.
1:41:02
In 1963, only three years
1:41:04
after the first
1:41:07
Corona satellite goes up,
1:41:09
LMSC and the government launch
1:41:12
the Gambit program.
1:41:14
This is the see it well.
1:41:16
So
1:41:17
Gambit's max resolution
1:41:20
still has not been declassified. We
1:41:22
don't know how sharp it was. This thing launched
1:41:25
in 1963 and it is still classified
1:41:28
how good it was.
1:41:30
But it has been confirmed that
1:41:32
the resolution was under two feet,
1:41:34
which was better than the U2 cameras.
1:41:37
Whoa, less than two feet
1:41:40
from space in 1963. Next
1:41:42
was hexagon.
1:41:44
Hexagon was the quote, see it all
1:41:46
program.
1:41:47
Now this is starting to eclipse a little bit my
1:41:50
technical knowledge. And I think there's also just less
1:41:52
known about this because a lot of this is still classified
1:41:54
too. I believe the hexagon satellites
1:41:57
had longer orbit lifespan.
1:41:59
and had more film capacity before
1:42:02
they decayed. And so I think they were able
1:42:04
to kind of like see more longer,
1:42:07
I think is what Hexagon was. You basically
1:42:09
would need larger format film
1:42:12
with a wider angle lens if
1:42:14
you don't want to increase your number of satellites. Yeah.
1:42:17
I'm fuzziest on Hexagon.
1:42:19
Then in 1977, they launched Canon, K-E-N-N-E-N, which
1:42:26
this is still like very classified.
1:42:29
Some of it is out so we can know
1:42:31
a little bit about this. There actually was an incident
1:42:34
in, I think it was 2019, when
1:42:36
Trump was president.
1:42:38
He tweeted a intelligence
1:42:42
photo. That was just like this incredible
1:42:44
photo of, you know, incredible resolution
1:42:47
of something that happened somewhere, maybe in Iran. And
1:42:49
he tweeted like, oh, see, like it isn't what you thought. And
1:42:52
people went nuts.
1:42:54
People believe it's never been confirmed that
1:42:56
this photo was from a future version
1:42:58
of the Canon program.
1:43:01
So what was Canon?
1:43:02
Canon, it was see it now.
1:43:05
It's the first real time
1:43:08
space-based surveillance system. I
1:43:11
guess maybe the first real time surveillance system
1:43:13
period. I don't know. By 1977, there
1:43:16
were enough communication satellites
1:43:18
up in the sky and
1:43:20
digital photography had come along
1:43:22
far enough. The Canon satellites
1:43:24
are
1:43:25
like what we think about like Google maps, like it's real
1:43:28
time digital photography
1:43:30
beamed down via ground link
1:43:33
to stations in real time. Whoa.
1:43:36
And Lockheed has to build their
1:43:38
own digital workstations to like
1:43:41
process these photos, to
1:43:43
display them, to manipulate them. Like, I
1:43:46
think these might've been the first or like really
1:43:48
early digital
1:43:49
photo processing manipulation
1:43:51
workstations that were sold to the CIA.
1:43:54
I didn't know about any of this. Yeah, Lockheed built all
1:43:56
this in Silicon Valley. Wow.
1:43:59
You keep saying Google Maps. There's a
1:44:02
fun piece of trivia that I'm curious if you know. Do
1:44:04
you know, I
1:44:06
think it was the code name, the
1:44:08
original name for the Corona program. Oh,
1:44:10
Keyhole, yes. Yes. Which
1:44:12
is one of the companies that Google acquired that
1:44:15
became Google Maps. Yep.
1:44:16
Different Keyhole. Different Keyhole. But I'm pretty
1:44:19
sure Keyhole, Inc.,
1:44:20
which became Google Maps, was named
1:44:23
after this Keyhole program. Ooh.
1:44:25
It very well could have been, because it was 1995 when
1:44:28
that was declassified. And I'm sure Keyhole
1:44:30
was started after that. Yep.
1:44:32
Just super cool. Along the way,
1:44:35
LMSC also does
1:44:37
a lot of pioneering work in weather satellites.
1:44:39
And they launch weather satellites,
1:44:41
because it turns out that most of Russia is under
1:44:43
cloud cover most of the time. So they got
1:44:45
to know when the weather is
1:44:47
going to be clear enough to look pretty awesome.
1:44:50
Well, that's when you get into all the synthetic
1:44:52
aperture radar and all the other types
1:44:54
of sensing that you have in satellites
1:44:57
now that are not just the visible
1:44:59
light spectrum in order to get visibility of stuff
1:45:01
on the ground no ratter the conditions. Yep.
1:45:04
They're part of the positioning
1:45:07
satellites that the military puts up.
1:45:09
And that goes on to be opened
1:45:11
up to commercial use. And that's the GPS
1:45:14
system that we use today. And
1:45:16
of course, I'm sure LMSC
1:45:18
is part of
1:45:19
many, many other things in space that
1:45:21
we still have no idea about.
1:45:23
Wow. Yeah. One thing that
1:45:25
we have a lot of idea about that
1:45:27
they built
1:45:29
that I had no idea until researching
1:45:31
all this. So we're now
1:45:33
in the 70s as this is going along. And we'll
1:45:36
come back and talk a little bit about this as we come back
1:45:38
to Skunk Works here in a sec. But we're getting
1:45:40
towards the end of the Cold War. And this stuff
1:45:43
is less urgent. Lockheed
1:45:45
and LMSC start moving
1:45:47
into non-military applications
1:45:50
or trying to.
1:45:51
But LMSC
1:45:53
gets a contract from NASA
1:45:55
and builds
1:45:57
the Hubble telescope. Did you know that?
1:45:59
I did know that.
1:45:59
And Martin Marietta, future
1:46:02
Martin in Lockheed Martin, built the
1:46:05
large orange fuel tank for
1:46:07
the space shuttle which took the Hubble telescope
1:46:10
to space. Haha, that's so awesome.
1:46:12
Different companies at the time,
1:46:14
now the same company.
1:46:16
Yep. This is a great time to talk about our
1:46:18
third favorite company of the episode, pilot.com.
1:46:21
And as you know, this season we are joined by Waseem
1:46:23
Daher, CEO of Pilot,
1:46:25
for his tips he has for founders
1:46:28
after starting three different companies.
1:46:30
Today we're talking about a fun one,
1:46:33
fake work. Don't get
1:46:35
distracted by it. Tell us about that.
1:46:37
Sure. So I think there's a real temptation
1:46:40
among early stage startup founders
1:46:43
to do something that's basically like playing startup.
1:46:46
Meaning there are the things you really need to
1:46:48
do, but there are the things you think
1:46:51
like, oh, this is what a CEO does, or this
1:46:53
is what a business person should do. So
1:46:55
I guess I should spend time on that stuff. Like
1:46:58
going to networking events or
1:47:00
giving talks, spending a bunch of time meeting
1:47:02
VCs for coffee if you're not fundraising,
1:47:04
or being clever on Twitter, or just
1:47:06
spending hours researching what corporate card
1:47:09
is the best. You really have
1:47:11
one job as
1:47:12
an early stage startup founder, which is to
1:47:15
find product market fit, or to talk
1:47:18
to your customers, build something that they really
1:47:20
love and that they're willing to pay you for.
1:47:22
And anything that you do that is not
1:47:24
that, in a way, really is
1:47:26
fake work. It feels like work. It takes up
1:47:29
your time, but it doesn't actually
1:47:31
advance
1:47:32
the mission of the company. And it is consequently
1:47:34
really, really dangerous.
1:47:36
Sometimes it's working on
1:47:38
like priority 35. Like this is a
1:47:40
real task. It's a task that needs to be done,
1:47:43
maybe, I guess, by someone.
1:47:44
Just you should be focusing on priority number one
1:47:46
or two. Like priority number 35 should be the thing
1:47:48
that is below the line that you don't get to.
1:47:51
And you do it because you're good at priority 35,
1:47:54
or you happen to like that particular thing. For
1:47:57
me,
1:47:57
the very concrete example recently is...
1:47:59
I wrote some elaborate Python script to
1:48:02
sync data between our CRM and
1:48:04
a spreadsheet I was using to track revenue. And
1:48:06
it was just like, no, why?
1:48:09
That's an awful use of my time. But
1:48:11
like, I like to program sometimes. And so I did
1:48:13
it and I justified it to myself as like, Oh, I'm working,
1:48:15
I'm helping compute the revenue
1:48:17
or whatever. It's like, no, no, you have to be
1:48:20
laser focused on the real work, not
1:48:22
the fake work.
1:48:23
Our thanks to pilot, the largest startup focused
1:48:26
accounting firm in America.
1:48:28
You can click the link in the show notes or go to pilot.com
1:48:30
slash acquired to get 20% off your
1:48:33
finance, accounting and tax prep needs
1:48:35
for your first six months. And frankly, everyone
1:48:38
should do this. This is no one's core competency.
1:48:40
pilot has gotten extremely good at it. humans
1:48:43
software, keeping up with all the latest
1:48:45
trends and FinTech platforms
1:48:47
that you're probably using. Click the link in the show
1:48:49
notes and give it a shot. I think they are fantastic
1:48:52
humans and we recommend it.
1:48:54
Thank you pilot. It's
1:48:55
funny to be talking about
1:48:56
pilot
1:48:57
as we're talking about
1:48:58
aircraft. I know. Well, here now we're talking
1:49:00
about pilot lists aircraft, but which is
1:49:02
what you should be because you should use pilot, you
1:49:05
should outsource all of your finance and accounting to
1:49:07
pilot. Okay, two other things
1:49:09
that I want to talk about with LMSC
1:49:12
before we come back to the coda on skunk
1:49:14
works and the blackbird and all that.
1:49:16
One, I think I alluded
1:49:19
to this earlier. LMSC
1:49:21
listeners, you be the
1:49:23
judge. The stories that we've just told is
1:49:25
this more impactful to America
1:49:27
and the world than what skunk works was doing.
1:49:30
Personally, I kind of think yes, but you know, maybe
1:49:32
you can debate.
1:49:33
What is undebatable
1:49:35
is that LMSC from a business
1:49:37
standpoint within Lockheed became
1:49:40
the crown jewel of the company. Huh? Which
1:49:43
isn't true anymore. Or at least it's not their
1:49:45
largest business today. Well,
1:49:48
I think at times in the sixties and
1:49:50
seventies and eighties, LMSC was
1:49:52
the largest business by revenue, but
1:49:55
almost through the whole time, it was by
1:49:57
far the most profitable division. within
1:50:00
Lockheed. And at times, when
1:50:02
we'll get into Lockheed fell on some really
1:50:04
hard times in the seventies, there
1:50:07
were years where
1:50:08
LMSC generated more than 100%
1:50:12
of the profits of Lockheed. So
1:50:14
all of the rest of Lockheed Skunk Works included
1:50:17
was in the red, unprofitable,
1:50:19
bleeding money.
1:50:20
And LMSC
1:50:22
was keeping the company afloat.
1:50:24
Wow. And if you think about it, I guess one,
1:50:26
like just what they're developing and the scale
1:50:29
of it and these contracts are huge, both
1:50:32
under the ocean and up in space. Two
1:50:34
though, what they're doing, it's different than
1:50:36
building airplanes. And I alluded to this when I was talking
1:50:38
about it, it's a different talent set. This
1:50:41
is much more technology problems
1:50:43
and computing problems that LMSC
1:50:46
is tackling here. Yes, they're building missiles.
1:50:48
Yes, they're building rockets and all that, but the
1:50:51
core value
1:50:53
components of those rockets is
1:50:55
computing and silicon and ultimately
1:50:58
software. And as we talk about all the time
1:51:00
on this show, like, well, that's really good margins, definitely
1:51:02
better margins than building airplanes.
1:51:04
So the stats
1:51:06
I have, this is from Beyond the Horizons, which
1:51:09
also is where a lot of the story, especially of
1:51:11
Corona came from.
1:51:13
During the 12 year period from 1960,
1:51:17
when Corona first launched to 1972,
1:51:20
Lockheed as a whole did 26 billion
1:51:22
in revenue over
1:51:24
that 12 year period, and just 255 million
1:51:27
in total profit, not
1:51:30
a high margin company during that period.
1:51:33
LMSC accounted for
1:51:35
over a third of that revenue and 128%
1:51:38
of the profit. So
1:51:40
that's what I was talking about.
1:51:42
Everything else in Lockheed lost money,
1:51:44
or at least in aggregate lost money. And
1:51:46
then during the early post-Cold War period from 1983
1:51:48
to 1992, LMSC accounted for 46% of revenue.
1:51:51
So
1:51:54
growing percentage of revenue and 72%
1:51:57
of profits during that 10 year period.
1:51:59
Wow, it really is a completely different
1:52:02
company today. And I want to save why
1:52:04
as we drift toward today in analysis and all that. But that's
1:52:07
crazy how big the LMSC business
1:52:09
was at the time. It was a great business
1:52:12
just from a business standpoint.
1:52:14
So
1:52:15
the other thing I want to talk about before we come back to Skunk Works is
1:52:18
LMSC's operating
1:52:20
principles in philosophy. And
1:52:22
so much of that was built off the shoulders
1:52:24
of Skunk Works. And a lot of the guys
1:52:27
in the YouTube videos that I found talk about
1:52:29
this. Their philosophy, though,
1:52:31
they codified into seven tenets.
1:52:34
So Kelly had his 14
1:52:36
rules. LMSC had
1:52:38
seven tenets.
1:52:40
And most of them are very similar to
1:52:42
the Skunk Works rules. We'll link
1:52:44
to an image of them in the show notes.
1:52:47
One of them, though, that I want to highlight and discuss
1:52:49
that
1:52:50
to me stands out as different from
1:52:52
Skunk Works is Tenet Number One.
1:52:55
And that one is
1:52:56
focus on a threat-based
1:52:59
need. And I think that's really
1:53:01
interesting. Huh.
1:53:03
To me, when I read that and thought about it,
1:53:06
that element is missing
1:53:08
from Skunk Works and
1:53:11
Kelly's
1:53:12
philosophy.
1:53:13
Oh, this is conjecture here. Like, there's no Skunk
1:53:15
Works book about LMSC. So like, we
1:53:18
have very little information to go on.
1:53:20
But if that really was
1:53:21
Tenet Number One for
1:53:23
the company,
1:53:25
I think you could maybe extrapolate that
1:53:27
a little bit to the
1:53:28
market context is really important
1:53:31
for what you're doing. And don't lose sight of
1:53:34
the market context for what you're building.
1:53:36
Kelly's philosophy of all that matters
1:53:39
is rapid delivery of superior products.
1:53:42
Nowhere in that statement is there
1:53:44
room for the market. Well, who decides what's superior?
1:53:47
Maybe a small number of people want
1:53:49
this, but do a large number of people want this? How
1:53:51
important is this? Obviously, what Skunk
1:53:53
Works was doing was really important.
1:53:55
Or so they thought. I mean, if they knew
1:53:58
about this robust spy.
1:53:59
satellite system. Well, this is
1:54:02
the argument. Maybe it wasn't that important. Maybe
1:54:04
the Blackbird was a decoy.
1:54:06
Okay. We have not talked about the SR-71.
1:54:09
Can you please take us back to Skunk Works? I'm like dying
1:54:12
for my Mach 3 airplanes and ribbon
1:54:14
engines here. Okay.
1:54:17
Let's do it. But keep that in mind though. A threat
1:54:19
based need. Was there a threat based need for the SR-71?
1:54:22
Maybe.
1:54:23
My computer wallpaper needs to exist. So that's
1:54:25
a need. There was a
1:54:27
market need. Was there a threat based
1:54:29
need? Okay.
1:54:31
So
1:54:33
Skunk Works, the greatest airplane ever built.
1:54:35
Gee, it sure would be nice if
1:54:37
we had a plane that couldn't be
1:54:40
shot down. So when
1:54:42
Gary Powers was shot down in May 1960, of
1:54:45
course, as you would expect, the CIA
1:54:49
and Skunk Works is already hard
1:54:51
at work at the successor airplane
1:54:53
to the U-2.
1:54:54
Everybody believes it's kind of a miracle that they were able
1:54:57
to fly for five years like they did.
1:54:59
They knew that this day was coming
1:55:01
when the Russians would be able to shoot it down.
1:55:04
So
1:55:05
as we talked about, the U-2's primary
1:55:09
defense as it so happened, wasn't
1:55:11
intentional, but as it happened in practice
1:55:14
was how high it flew. It was obviously
1:55:16
trackable on radar. 70,000 feet. Yup. It's
1:55:19
not like you could evade enemy
1:55:22
fighters or missiles in this thing. It had a hundred foot wingspan.
1:55:25
It turned like a school bus. It
1:55:28
was how high it flew. And then all of a sudden that
1:55:30
was no longer defensible.
1:55:32
So it's not very fast and it doesn't fly
1:55:34
high enough to evade missiles. So
1:55:37
kind of useless. Yup.
1:55:39
So if you remember back to the original spec for
1:55:42
the program, there were three sort of
1:55:44
vectors that were possible
1:55:46
for how you could operate a
1:55:48
program like this.
1:55:50
One was fly high enough. That's
1:55:52
what the U-2 ultimately did.
1:55:54
There was also though, fly
1:55:56
so that it can't be seen by radar
1:55:59
stealthy. We'll come back to that in
1:56:01
a few minutes here.
1:56:02
And then three. Make it go
1:56:04
so fast that even if they do fire
1:56:06
at you, it just falls behind
1:56:09
and then explodes miles behind
1:56:11
your incredibly fast airplane.
1:56:14
Yep. So
1:56:16
that's the path they took. If you can't evade
1:56:18
them, outrun them. Yep.
1:56:20
It's like the Sonic the Hedgehog of airplanes.
1:56:23
So
1:56:24
this program, if you know anything about the
1:56:27
SR-71 Blackbird, you're like, well,
1:56:29
that's a Air Force airplane.
1:56:31
We're talking about the CIA here.
1:56:33
The Blackbird was not a CIA airplane.
1:56:36
The program that the Blackbird ultimately came
1:56:38
out of was the A-12 Oxcart.
1:56:41
This was essentially the same airplane. We'll
1:56:44
talk about the differences in a minute. But this
1:56:46
was the CIA contract that they
1:56:48
had Skunk Works working on. And it was,
1:56:50
yeah, the goal of make this thing so fast that whether
1:56:52
they see it or not, they're not gonna shoot it out
1:56:54
of the sky.
1:56:55
It has an even better camera, I think
1:56:58
also designed by Edwin Land, and
1:57:00
it can get these incredible photos
1:57:03
flying really, really fast. Yep.
1:57:05
And to be able to avoid surface-to-air
1:57:08
missiles, that
1:57:10
basically meant that the specs for this
1:57:12
thing were that it had to go Mach 3
1:57:15
or faster. Now,
1:57:18
to outrun any missiles,
1:57:20
it had to do that with a pilot. There
1:57:22
had to be humans in this thing. Faster
1:57:24
than Mach 3 is faster than 2,000 miles an hour.
1:57:28
If you fire a rifle,
1:57:30
that bullet doesn't go Mach 3.
1:57:33
If you're standing on the ground and you pick up a rifle
1:57:35
and you shoot it, and an SR-71 flies over your
1:57:37
head, the SR-71
1:57:39
will beat the bullet. Yeah, it goes about 2
1:57:42
thirds of a mile every second. This
1:57:45
thing also is not very good
1:57:47
at turning, as you would imagine. So
1:57:50
there's a fun stat about the SR-71.
1:57:53
It cannot turn around in
1:57:55
the state of Ohio.
1:57:57
It's turn radius to change direction
1:57:59
by 180.
1:57:59
80 degrees
1:58:01
is a
1:58:02
wider turn than the state of Ohio.
1:58:05
Oh, wow. It's decommissioning mission,
1:58:07
just to show off how fast it ever went,
1:58:09
was one hour and five
1:58:11
minutes from LA to
1:58:14
DC.
1:58:15
For being placed in the National
1:58:17
Iron Space Museum? Yep,
1:58:19
coast to coast in an hour. Wow.
1:58:23
And I remember being a kid looking at this thing, like,
1:58:25
well, why didn't we commercial the, you
1:58:27
can't commercialize this thing. You've got to be in a spacesuit
1:58:29
to fly this. Totally. It flies
1:58:32
at 84,000 feet, up looks black to you,
1:58:34
straight basically
1:58:36
looks black to you. You can see the curvature of
1:58:38
the Earth. You can't navigate, really,
1:58:41
by Earth-based landmarks,
1:58:44
because the
1:58:45
Earth-based landmarks are moving
1:58:47
by you too fast. So the best you can do
1:58:50
is be like, the Rockies are in front of me, oh,
1:58:52
the Rockies are behind me. And that's
1:58:54
not terribly useful. So they had to invent
1:58:56
a new navigational guidance system
1:58:59
that sits on the top of the plane, R2D2
1:59:01
style, looking like an astro mech from Star Wars,
1:59:04
to navigate by the stars.
1:59:06
So great. I mean, it is like 50 concurrent
1:59:10
miracles that went into making this
1:59:12
thing possible.
1:59:13
And hopefully this is obvious. But just to make the
1:59:15
point again, some of you might be sitting there being like,
1:59:17
well, you just told me about how the sister company, LMSC,
1:59:21
did all this amazing stuff in space. You go a lot
1:59:23
faster than that to get to space and whatnot. Yeah,
1:59:26
but you don't have humans on there. So a
1:59:28
pilot's got to fly this thing. And these aren't rocket engines.
1:59:30
These are jet engines that they figured out how to make
1:59:32
go Mach 3. Yep.
1:59:34
OK. So when Skunk Works
1:59:37
and Kelly and Ben Rich and everybody sit
1:59:39
down to work on this, the
1:59:41
current state of the art, fastest
1:59:44
plane at the time,
1:59:46
this is late 1950s when
1:59:48
they start working on this,
1:59:50
is the McDonnell Douglas F-4
1:59:52
Phantom,
1:59:53
which is able to hit just over
1:59:56
Mach 2
1:59:57
with its afterburners on. So not sustained for
1:59:59
the first time.
1:59:59
Like when you punch the afterburners,
2:00:02
it
2:00:02
can barely touch Mach 2.
2:00:04
And the F4 itself was
2:00:06
only a bit faster than the Skunk
2:00:08
Works built F-104
2:00:10
Starfighter that Ben you mentioned earlier, which
2:00:13
was the first collier trophy that
2:00:15
Kelly Johnson won.
2:00:17
So the idea that you were going to achieve
2:00:19
cruising speeds, like sustained
2:00:22
speeds above Mach 3,
2:00:25
this is a big piece to bite off here.
2:00:27
Only a handful of planes have ever
2:00:29
been able to do this since, and
2:00:32
I'm pretty sure no other plane has been able
2:00:34
to do this at cruise speed without
2:00:36
engaging afterburners. It is still to this
2:00:39
day, unless there are classified programs we don't
2:00:41
know about, the highest and fastest
2:00:44
humans have ever flown without rocket propulsion.
2:00:46
Yes. Okay, so how are you going to do this? The
2:00:50
only way you can do this in a jet-powered
2:00:53
plane
2:00:54
is to essentially design something
2:00:56
that can run with afterburners on all
2:00:58
the time.
2:00:59
Like they're not afterburners, they're just
2:01:01
burners. It's how the thing goes. To
2:01:04
do that, you A. required
2:01:07
a tremendous amount of fuel,
2:01:09
and B. you also produce
2:01:12
heat in doing so that's like rocket-level
2:01:15
proportions. The skin
2:01:18
of the airplane gets to 500 degrees Fahrenheit. The
2:01:22
area near the engines on the airframe itself
2:01:25
gets almost to a thousand. Yes,
2:01:27
and the engines, I think, inside the engines
2:01:29
get to close to 3000 degrees, I
2:01:31
believe.
2:01:32
So they had to build the whole plane out of titanium
2:01:35
to make this work. Which was a metal
2:01:37
that no one had ever built a plane out of before. Right,
2:01:40
this is really funny.
2:01:42
There wasn't enough titanium in the United States to
2:01:44
build all these blackbirds, or raw
2:01:46
titanium that they could easily source. There happened
2:01:48
to be mines somewhere else with a bunch of titanium.
2:01:51
So the government and Lockheed set
2:01:53
up a bunch of dummy corporations. In Europe,
2:01:56
like European incorporated dummy corporations.
2:01:58
Yes.
2:01:59
source a large amount of the titanium that
2:02:02
goes into the blackbirds, the A12s and then the
2:02:04
blackbirds
2:02:05
out of the Soviet Union. Too
2:02:09
funny. And by the way, you can't
2:02:12
machine titanium with
2:02:14
regular tools. Right.
2:02:17
Titanium is so hard that it will damage
2:02:19
your tools. So they had to machine new
2:02:22
tools
2:02:23
for the blackbird itself out of titanium
2:02:25
in order to
2:02:26
manufacture the titanium plane. I feel like it's
2:02:29
like a diamond cutting facility or something.
2:02:31
Totally. And I think traditional
2:02:34
materials like aluminum would lose its strength
2:02:36
around 300 degrees. So like you actually
2:02:38
need a different material. Otherwise the whole plane
2:02:41
would just dissolve when it got
2:02:43
that fast.
2:02:44
Amazing.
2:02:45
So there's
2:02:46
another funny thing here, which is metal
2:02:49
expands when it gets hot. And
2:02:51
normally your airplane materials don't
2:02:53
get that hot because you're not going that
2:02:55
fast. It's fine if the metal expands a
2:02:57
little bit,
2:02:58
except when it's getting this hot,
2:03:00
the panels, the skin of the airplane is
2:03:02
going to expand quite a bit.
2:03:04
So that means if they expand a lot,
2:03:06
you have to leave a lot of room.
2:03:08
So
2:03:09
how do you leave room? So what they
2:03:12
want it to do is fit together really snug
2:03:14
while the plane is flying, which
2:03:17
means the panels have to fit together kind
2:03:19
of loose
2:03:20
when the plane's not flying. Ben, are you
2:03:22
telling me that the blackbird had panel gaps? The
2:03:25
blackbird had panel gaps
2:03:27
and to add insult to injury, there
2:03:30
are a variety of reasons they decided not to
2:03:32
have custom fuel tanks. They
2:03:34
literally just made the skin of the aircraft,
2:03:37
the fuel tank itself. So you didn't need
2:03:39
sort of multiple, you needed it to be light.
2:03:41
And you needed a lot of fuel in there. Right.
2:03:44
And so when it was on the ground after you fuel it up, because
2:03:47
there's gaps in the fuel tank, it would
2:03:49
just leak fuel while
2:03:51
it was sitting on the ground. So to solve
2:03:53
this problem,
2:03:54
they went to shell and had a custom
2:03:58
fuel created for it.
2:03:59
that was not flammable
2:04:02
on the ground. Like you could smoke a cigarette next to it and
2:04:04
it wouldn't burst into flames because after you fuel
2:04:06
this thing before it took off, it's just gonna leak fuel all
2:04:09
over the tarmac. Oh my God. This is one
2:04:11
of the reasons why
2:04:12
it is maybe spoiling it a little bit, but to flash
2:04:15
forward, the Air Force hated
2:04:17
operating these things. Yeah. I
2:04:20
mean, it costs, I think, $300 million a year just
2:04:22
to maintain these things. These
2:04:25
were beasts from hell in every
2:04:27
sense of that phrase. The good
2:04:29
and the bad. Yep.
2:04:31
Okay, so that's some of the materials challenges.
2:04:35
Another problem
2:04:36
was on the engines. So
2:04:39
the most advanced jet engines
2:04:41
in the world at the time
2:04:43
was the Pratt & Whitney J58. And
2:04:46
I believe actually they weren't even able to get
2:04:48
the J58 in the first A12s and
2:04:51
then only later in the Blackbirds did
2:04:53
they put it in. And we should tell people the Blackbird,
2:04:55
the SR-71 was the two seater Air Force
2:04:57
version of the single seater
2:04:59
A12 CIA airplane. Yep.
2:05:02
So
2:05:03
even the J58s
2:05:05
couldn't produce nearly enough thrust
2:05:07
on their own to get to
2:05:09
and sustain the Mach 3 plus speeds
2:05:12
that
2:05:13
they needed to hit spec. In fact,
2:05:15
at least according to Ben Rich in Skunk Works, they
2:05:18
could only produce about 25% of the thrust required.
2:05:21
So Ben leads a
2:05:23
team that engineers the Spike
2:05:26
Inlet System. So if you're looking at a Blackbird
2:05:29
and you look at the engines, they've got
2:05:31
these like
2:05:32
cones in front of these spikes, these big
2:05:34
spikes. I mean, I'm sure everybody listening
2:05:37
has seen a photo of Blackbird. If you live in
2:05:39
Seattle, go to the Museum of Flight. There's
2:05:41
a handful of these at various museums
2:05:43
around the country. You owe it to yourself if you have
2:05:45
not seen one of these things in person.
2:05:47
It's just one of the most amazing objects ever
2:05:50
created ever. But these cones,
2:05:52
what do they do?
2:05:53
So the engines get the thing
2:05:55
up
2:05:56
and then once it's up in the air, the cones
2:05:59
expand and reach. first
2:06:01
suck in
2:06:02
and then compress and then superheat
2:06:05
massive amounts of air
2:06:07
that they then mix with fuel in
2:06:09
the engines and ignite.
2:06:13
Essentially, this is the world's
2:06:15
most badass supercharger
2:06:18
ever created. These
2:06:20
things are superchargers. That's what they are. The Spike System is
2:06:22
a supercharger for the engines. It
2:06:24
provides
2:06:25
three quarters of the thrust needed
2:06:27
to get to
2:06:28
Mach 3 plus and sustain it.
2:06:30
Unbelievable. Obviously, Dave
2:06:33
and I are fanboying this thing.
2:06:35
It's really easy to feel good about
2:06:37
this airplane because it also never carried
2:06:39
guns. It only carried cameras. You
2:06:41
couldn't shoot bullets out of it because it's
2:06:43
faster than the bullets. Right. But
2:06:46
they did consider, I think Kelly
2:06:48
and the Skunk Works team were really advocating to build
2:06:50
a tactical aircraft that was based
2:06:53
on this or a bomber. And that never
2:06:55
happened. So every version
2:06:57
of the SR-71 or the early prototypes
2:07:00
of the Archangel or the CIA spy plane,
2:07:02
they're only ever badass airplanes
2:07:04
that carry
2:07:05
cameras. And go really fast. Yeah.
2:07:08
Yeah. So fortunately,
2:07:11
you know, Skunk Works and the CIA had started working
2:07:13
on the A-12 ox cart
2:07:15
before Gary Powers was shut down. It
2:07:17
takes, I believe, quite a while to engineer
2:07:20
this beast. They start test
2:07:22
flying it in April 1962. Of course, at Area 51.
2:07:24
Where else are they going to do
2:07:26
this? Once
2:07:30
they start test flying it, that's when the Air Force
2:07:33
finally gets interested in the project and is like,
2:07:35
oh, we want our version of this. And that's how
2:07:37
the Blackbird comes about. A fun little
2:07:39
bit of trivia within the Air Force
2:07:42
and the Pentagon. The project originally
2:07:44
was called the RS-71. Yes.
2:07:48
Not the SR. And the SR-71
2:07:50
is strategic reconnaissance, but it ended
2:07:52
up being backwards. Yeah. So
2:07:54
funny. It happened because
2:07:56
President Lyndon Johnson actually announced the
2:07:58
existence of this thing.
2:07:59
in a national speech and during
2:08:02
the speech he calls it the SR-71 instead
2:08:04
of the RS. There's
2:08:06
some speculation that it wasn't that he messed
2:08:08
up and made a mistake, but that his speechwriter
2:08:11
wanted it to be called the SR-71
2:08:14
and intentionally modified
2:08:16
the speech. Who knows? What
2:08:18
is relevant though,
2:08:19
post-Cold War politics become
2:08:21
a huge thing here. So once Johnson
2:08:24
says this,
2:08:25
nobody is willing to contradict the president. So
2:08:28
Skunk Works has to go and like redo
2:08:30
all of their documentation for the whole damn
2:08:32
thing. You can imagine Kelly Johnson's
2:08:35
reaction to this. Yeah.
2:08:37
So the first official flight of the
2:08:39
Blackbird happens on December 22nd, 1964. It
2:08:43
reaches a top speed of Mach 3.4. God.
2:08:47
The airplane wins Kelly his
2:08:49
second Collier trophy. I
2:08:51
mean still to this day people lose their minds
2:08:54
over this thing and it's stunning.
2:08:56
It
2:08:57
I believe has never been shot
2:08:59
down. There were some accidents in
2:09:02
test piloting, but yeah, it's never been hit by
2:09:04
an enemy. I think it took four years to ever
2:09:06
even be detected by radar for the first time all
2:09:09
the way until 1968.
2:09:11
It has played roles in surveillance in
2:09:14
Vietnam, Korea, Arab-Israel
2:09:16
conflict in the 70s, obviously the
2:09:19
USSR. There's stuff you can find out there
2:09:21
on the internet. Obviously nobody really knows, but supposedly
2:09:24
according to internet lore, over 4,000 missiles have
2:09:27
been shot at
2:09:29
Blackbirds and none of them have ever hit.
2:09:31
It is just such an awesome badass
2:09:33
thing to say the way
2:09:36
that we're going to get around getting shot down is just
2:09:38
to be faster than the missiles and be right
2:09:40
about that. It's especially awesome
2:09:42
when you know as the
2:09:44
highest levels of the government,
2:09:46
it's kind of all a decoy anyway. You're
2:09:49
getting what you need from other sources. Man,
2:09:52
so this is a good time to talk about that. You keep saying
2:09:54
that. I had no idea until you
2:09:56
brought that up, what, an hour ago.
2:09:58
I think you're right. Yeah, well,
2:10:01
here's one area where I'm wrong. I
2:10:03
do think that statement is mostly right, but
2:10:05
you could argue with it and people do and
2:10:07
did in that
2:10:09
satellites are not real
2:10:12
time. You know when they're coming.
2:10:14
You know when they're about to fly over. If you
2:10:16
need to instantly get somewhere
2:10:18
that maybe you don't have the right orbit coverage for
2:10:21
or where there's a dynamic situation,
2:10:24
if an enemy knows that a
2:10:26
satellite is flying over it and doing reconnaissance,
2:10:29
they know when the satellite is going to fly
2:10:31
over so they could hide stuff during those times.
2:10:34
If you need full flexibility,
2:10:37
you need a Blackbird. So it does have
2:10:39
a use. It's not like it's useless,
2:10:41
but unlike the U2, which was
2:10:44
everything, it's more of a niche
2:10:46
use case here. So the Blackbird doesn't fly
2:10:48
today. Civilians are unaware of
2:10:51
something that has flown faster.
2:10:53
There's a crazy stat, a little bit
2:10:55
of trivia about the SR-71
2:10:57
and this really puts into context
2:11:00
how early this was and
2:11:02
how strange it is that
2:11:04
we've had nothing faster since. The
2:11:07
SR-71 first flight was
2:11:09
closer to the Wright brothers than
2:11:11
today. Yeah, wild, right?
2:11:15
It's totally wild. And I mean, this whole
2:11:17
thing was built with slide rules.
2:11:19
I had a very controversial tweet get
2:11:21
a community noted where I said that
2:11:24
it was before the invention of the desktop
2:11:26
calculator. It's like mostly true.
2:11:28
There's technicalities to it, but Kelly
2:11:30
and team basically did this
2:11:32
thing independently of computers and calculators
2:11:35
and figured out all the unbelievable aerodynamicism
2:11:38
stuff about it. Of course, there's also,
2:11:41
it's
2:11:41
the first stealth airplane.
2:11:44
I mean, that's the other thing that we didn't talk about is the
2:11:46
reason this thing wasn't detected on radar for four
2:11:48
years because they figured out how
2:11:50
to fly and start to evade radar.
2:11:53
Yeah.
2:11:54
Now I don't know the details of stealth
2:11:57
with the blackbird. I imagine
2:11:59
a big part of that. that was the
2:12:02
height,
2:12:02
was the altitude and the speed of it.
2:12:04
It's not that I don't think it's more
2:12:07
around the shape because radar will
2:12:09
just go unimpeded out
2:12:11
into space. There's famous stories
2:12:14
about detecting where people's
2:12:16
radar transmitters are by bouncing them off
2:12:18
the moon and figuring out the patterns of
2:12:20
bouncing off the moon.
2:12:21
It's more, I think that the
2:12:24
SR-71's bottom was one of
2:12:26
the first airplanes with a flat bottom rather
2:12:28
than a rounded fuselage. And so
2:12:31
imagine I'm shooting a set of
2:12:33
waves at a round sphere in front
2:12:35
of me. Well, some of those waves are gonna
2:12:37
bounce back because some of that sphere is
2:12:40
exactly perpendicular to
2:12:43
me broadcasting it. There's one particular point
2:12:46
that's exactly perpendicular and I can kind
2:12:48
of tell the radius of the thing by
2:12:50
how I'm detecting waves that are bouncing back
2:12:53
at me. But if it's all flat, there's
2:12:55
only one very specific
2:12:57
angle for which I can shoot waves at it where
2:13:00
I'm perfectly perpendicular and every
2:13:02
other angle that I shoot
2:13:04
radar at it, it's gonna bounce off and not
2:13:07
come back to me as a transmitter. You'd need transmitters
2:13:09
coding all over the earth to figure out where
2:13:12
all those waves are bouncing. And so by making
2:13:14
the bottom flat, they made it so that if
2:13:16
it was truly flat, then there's only one
2:13:18
exact moment in time that a given
2:13:21
radar transmitter is useful. That's
2:13:23
cool. They also did a whole bunch of work around
2:13:26
making the rivets exactly flush
2:13:28
with the skin. So it basically didn't have
2:13:30
a whole bunch
2:13:31
of rounded parts that could risk
2:13:33
bouncing radar waves back
2:13:36
at the transmitter receiver. Super cool.
2:13:38
Keep in mind for a minute from now,
2:13:41
that idea of flat surfaces and planes and
2:13:43
radar planes, not
2:13:45
airplanes, planes like a flat plane and
2:13:48
surfaces.
2:13:49
Okay,
2:13:50
to close out on this amazing
2:13:52
airplane, I've basically been sad in a lot
2:13:54
of ways. It's hugely expensive to build
2:13:56
these things. $33 million per plane.
2:13:59
which was a lot back then. I mean, play
2:14:02
it style costs more, but a lot. And
2:14:04
then as I said, $300 million a year just
2:14:06
to keep them operational and run the program.
2:14:09
You couldn't use it as a fighter or a bomber. It
2:14:11
was only reconnaissance.
2:14:13
It's not super popular with the military
2:14:16
and the Air Force. They kind of don't like it
2:14:18
as an operational plane. It's a lusty
2:14:21
airplane. Yes. It's not a daily
2:14:23
driver. Let's put it that way. In 1970,
2:14:26
the Pentagon
2:14:28
cancels further orders, and they order
2:14:31
Skunk Works to destroy all
2:14:33
of the titanium tooling for it so that
2:14:35
no more can ever be built. I assume that's
2:14:37
so that it doesn't fall into enemy hands
2:14:39
or something like that. And it's like we're serious
2:14:42
about telling you we're done ordering these things, and we
2:14:44
don't want political maneuvering to spin it back up. So
2:14:46
we're going to be prohibitively expensive for you
2:14:48
or for anyone to ever think about starting the program
2:14:50
back up. Yep.
2:14:52
The existing ones do stay in service.
2:14:55
But obviously, this is like a big blow
2:14:57
to Skunk Works' revenue. They're
2:14:59
not producing these things anymore. On the
2:15:01
back of that, Skunk Works has to do layoffs.
2:15:04
The Skunk Works division, after the contract
2:15:06
is canceled,
2:15:08
in 1972, two years
2:15:10
later, Lockheed and Skunk Works lose
2:15:13
the bidding for the F-16 fighter. General
2:15:16
Dynamics wins that. Ironically, the
2:15:18
later Lockheed, right before the
2:15:20
merger with Lockheed Martin,
2:15:22
would acquire General Dynamics fighter plane business.
2:15:24
So it does come back into Lockheed.
2:15:27
And it is still, they call it out in their earnings like
2:15:30
today. They're still selling F-16s today.
2:15:32
So here's what's interesting about this contract and
2:15:34
Lockheed and Skunk Works losing it. This
2:15:37
is an example, I think, of to that first
2:15:39
tenant from LMSE of threat-based
2:15:42
need and real market need.
2:15:44
Maybe you want to adapt that to
2:15:47
Kelly Johnson, as amazing
2:15:49
and a genius as he is, is a
2:15:52
very stubborn man. And
2:15:55
the stated purpose,
2:15:57
the Air Force's goals with the F-16.
2:15:59
was to have a cheap fighter.
2:16:02
It didn't need the best. It needed to be cheap
2:16:05
and that they could make a lot of these and they could use them all
2:16:07
over the world.
2:16:09
That's not Kelly Zemo. And
2:16:11
so he and Skunk Works bidding
2:16:13
on this project, they kept trying to give the Air
2:16:15
Force what they didn't want
2:16:17
and they lost it. Like the idea of Skunk Works
2:16:19
losing a contract, this is crazy. And
2:16:21
in particular,
2:16:22
he didn't really want to play ball the way the government
2:16:25
was trying to bid out the contract.
2:16:28
He looked at the requirements. He said, this is stupid. I'm
2:16:30
going to design you an airplane that I think meets
2:16:32
the needs of how this will be used in the field
2:16:35
rather than what these technical specifications
2:16:37
say here. And over
2:16:39
the long run, he was right. As the program
2:16:42
evolved, the specs actually changed to what Kelly
2:16:45
decided to build their prototype airplane
2:16:47
to do. But the prototype they produced
2:16:49
was not in spec for the original
2:16:51
F-16 requirements.
2:16:53
And by this point in time,
2:16:56
to bring some context back of
2:16:58
where the country was,
2:16:59
we're now basically post-Vietnam
2:17:02
War. The Cold War is for sure still
2:17:04
going on, but it's not the same
2:17:07
level of urgency in Americans'
2:17:09
minds as it was back in the 50s. Not
2:17:12
to mention, all military muscle
2:17:15
is very unpopular in America.
2:17:17
And so any politicians who are
2:17:19
seeking to sort of expand the
2:17:22
might and budget and proactivity of the military
2:17:25
are facing a lot of resistance at home.
2:17:27
And that is probably a good thing for
2:17:30
our society that that was happening. And
2:17:32
at the same time, it made Kelly
2:17:34
kind of a relic.
2:17:35
Yeah, totally. And this is not a challenge
2:17:38
that LMSC, at least with the Corona
2:17:40
Project, had to face, because nobody knew about it. Right.
2:17:44
So this is a really
2:17:46
bad time for Lockheed. This is the
2:17:48
period, like we were talking about at the end
2:17:50
of the LMSC chapter, where
2:17:53
it's LMSC that keeps the company afloat. Kelly
2:17:55
retires. Kelly retires. Ben
2:17:57
Rich takes over as head of Skunk Corps.
2:18:00
Scott Corks is doing layoffs.
2:18:02
Lockheed really stupidly
2:18:05
decides to try to get back into the
2:18:07
commercial aviation business. L-1011. They
2:18:11
make the L-1011, which by all accounts
2:18:13
was a great airplane, but turns into
2:18:15
a disaster project. They're
2:18:17
trying to compete with Boeing and with McDonnell
2:18:20
Douglas here. The DC-10, I think,
2:18:22
was the McDonnell Douglas competitor.
2:18:24
Lockheed partners with Rolls-Royce to
2:18:26
make the engines. Right as Rolls-Royce
2:18:29
goes bankrupt and gets nationalized by the UK
2:18:31
government, all told, we won't go into
2:18:33
the whole history here, but the L-1011 airliner
2:18:36
project loses Lockheed $2.5 billion.
2:18:41
And as we said a few minutes ago, this is not
2:18:43
a super profitable company. They don't have $2.5
2:18:46
billion in other earnings just
2:18:48
sitting around to soak up the losses
2:18:50
here.
2:18:52
At the same time, Lockheed
2:18:55
also gets caught up in really
2:18:57
nasty bribery scandals around
2:18:59
the world. Both these are nasty political scandals themselves.
2:19:01
And
2:19:04
basically, Lockheed comes out looking
2:19:07
at least to the American public like kind
2:19:09
of a corrupt arms dealer. So
2:19:11
what happens is, you
2:19:13
know, Lockheed and lots of people would argue that this
2:19:15
is just the way you needed to do business in foreign
2:19:17
countries, our allies that
2:19:19
Lockheed sold these weapons to
2:19:22
in the Netherlands, in Japan, and
2:19:24
in Saudi Arabia.
2:19:26
It comes to light that Lockheed
2:19:28
employees and contractors are paying bribes to
2:19:31
political officials to win contracts. This
2:19:34
actually brings down the Japanese prime
2:19:36
minister at the time. Whoa. This
2:19:38
is a huge scandal in Japan
2:19:40
on the order of Lake Watergate in the U.S. Huge
2:19:43
scandal. Sega actually makes
2:19:45
an arcade game about it called I'm
2:19:47
Sorry About the Prime Minister at the time.
2:19:50
Like so funny.
2:19:52
Lockheed also on the military
2:19:54
side, kind of the main Lockheed divisions,
2:19:57
engage with a couple helicopter projects
2:19:59
with the military.
2:19:59
and then the C5 Galaxy
2:20:02
transport plane, those projects
2:20:04
go horribly. They have huge cost
2:20:06
overruns.
2:20:08
The C5 at least I think does ultimately become
2:20:10
a good airplane, but costs way
2:20:13
more than the initial bidding.
2:20:14
All of this conspires that, especially post
2:20:17
Vietnam period, the American public starts to
2:20:19
view Lockheed as
2:20:20
this corrupt vampire octopus
2:20:23
military industrial complex, squid
2:20:26
sucking on America. Things get real
2:20:28
bad. Lockheed's finances at the
2:20:30
same time are so bad,
2:20:32
they need a bailout from the government. So
2:20:34
the government has to guarantee a $250 million
2:20:37
loan to Lockheed to keep them
2:20:39
afloat,
2:20:40
mostly because of the L-1011 disaster. It
2:20:43
requires a vote of Congress to do this.
2:20:45
It almost doesn't pass. This is a
2:20:47
real bad.
2:20:50
I didn't realize how dark it got there. It got real,
2:20:52
real dark. And again, it was only the profits
2:20:54
from LMSC that kept the company
2:20:57
from probably going under.
2:20:59
So, okay,
2:21:00
we've mentioned stealth a few times here.
2:21:02
Back to Skunk Works. There is one more great
2:21:05
Skunk Works airplane and it is under
2:21:07
the administration of Ben Rich, Kelly's
2:21:09
successor. One last hurrah,
2:21:12
at least for the traditional Skunk Works organization.
2:21:15
So there's a math
2:21:18
paper published in a Russian
2:21:20
journal. Around mid 1970s,
2:21:22
right around this time.
2:21:24
Which I think
2:21:26
gets published because the Russians don't
2:21:28
really see anything of value in there. They don't really
2:21:30
know exactly what these particular
2:21:33
equations that are getting published could be applied
2:21:35
toward.
2:21:36
But somebody at the Skunk Works reads
2:21:38
the paper
2:21:39
and says, huh,
2:21:40
I think all the ways that
2:21:42
we've been thinking about trying to make an
2:21:45
airplane stealth, like the SR-71
2:21:47
with flattening the bottom a little bit
2:21:49
and trying to use particular materials
2:21:52
and paint and stuff like that, I think it's good. But
2:21:54
if I apply these equations
2:21:57
to make a stealth aircraft,
2:21:59
then...
2:21:59
I think we can do something two orders
2:22:02
of magnitude better than
2:22:03
anything we've done before. And
2:22:06
I think we can make an airplane
2:22:07
go from looking smaller
2:22:10
than it is, like a bird on a radar
2:22:12
to something like a baby on
2:22:14
a radar. Or a ball bearing, famously.
2:22:17
Or a ball bearing. So
2:22:19
that Skunk Works employee was
2:22:21
then 36-year-old Dennis Overhalser,
2:22:25
who was a mathematician. And
2:22:28
he,
2:22:29
like you said, reads this paper and brings it
2:22:31
to Ben Rich, who just six months earlier
2:22:33
had taken over from Kelly as head
2:22:35
of Skunk Works.
2:22:36
And he's told don't stick your neck out. No
2:22:39
one's getting the
2:22:40
crazy amount of rope that Kelly
2:22:42
had. So prepare to
2:22:45
just be Lockheed's Yes Man,
2:22:47
and we're going to use the Skunk Works for branding
2:22:49
and marketing, but we're not doing anything too
2:22:52
nutty in your little shop over there. Kelly
2:22:55
himself, he's retired, but he stays
2:22:57
on as an advisor, so he still has his fingers
2:22:59
and everything.
2:23:00
He's so disillusioned at this point.
2:23:03
He tells Ben Rich, he says, don't
2:23:05
even pursue this. It's not worth it. Missiles
2:23:07
are where the future is. Nobody's making planes anymore.
2:23:10
Don't invest the money on this.
2:23:12
And in particular, because when
2:23:15
you apply these equations to
2:23:18
design an aircraft, the way you
2:23:20
have to design it makes it incredibly
2:23:22
not aerodynamic. If it works,
2:23:25
it will be a thing that is invisible on radar.
2:23:28
But Kelly sort of looks at some of the early
2:23:30
sketches of what you would have to do to
2:23:32
make this thing into an airplane and basically thinks that's
2:23:35
not an airplane. That won't generate lift.
2:23:38
He's such an aesthetic snob. He's
2:23:40
like, that's not an airplane. We can't make it. It
2:23:42
doesn't look beautiful.
2:23:43
And it's not just that it doesn't look beautiful. It's that
2:23:45
literally there's like only
2:23:48
a hint of Bernoulli in there. The way
2:23:50
that it's shaped is unclear that it will
2:23:52
generate enough lift to lift itself.
2:23:54
Yes.
2:23:55
Also correct. Or, well, I think the bigger
2:23:57
problem was less. about
2:24:00
lift, although I'm sure that was a problem, but more
2:24:02
about could you control it? Yeah. Could you
2:24:05
fly this thing? So what's
2:24:07
being proposed here is basically
2:24:10
an enormous looking cockpit, this
2:24:12
big globular fuselage. And
2:24:15
you can Google the F117A. The
2:24:19
name is the Nighthawk. Stubby
2:24:21
wings,
2:24:22
these two little super thin tall
2:24:24
tail fins. It looks super unstable.
2:24:27
And the whole thing has basically
2:24:30
zero round surfaces on it. It's faceted.
2:24:33
I mean, it looks like a diamond. In fact,
2:24:36
its code name, or I would say probably
2:24:38
not its code name, but its nickname internally, was
2:24:40
the hopeless diamond. Yes. You
2:24:42
know what this thing looks like if you aren't
2:24:44
already intimately familiar with images of
2:24:46
it? I actually think it looks really cool. Totally.
2:24:49
But
2:24:49
it doesn't look like it'll fly or fly in a controllable
2:24:51
way. It looks like you made an airplane, like
2:24:53
a paper airplane, and then you put
2:24:55
a rock on top of it, and you
2:24:57
were like trying to get that thing to fly. Totally. To
2:25:00
me, it looks like the
2:25:02
planes in the first Star Fox
2:25:04
game for the Super Nintendo, when
2:25:06
Nintendo and other 16-bit
2:25:09
game developers during that generation
2:25:11
were trying to make 3D games with
2:25:14
16-bit hardware. And you didn't have enough processing
2:25:17
power and polygonal power to make rounded
2:25:19
shapes. So you had to have flat surfaces.
2:25:22
These big ass triangles. Big ass
2:25:24
triangles. That's what this thing looks like. It literally
2:25:26
looks like not a Star Fox 64, a Star Fox Super
2:25:29
Nintendo plane.
2:25:32
Right.
2:25:34
So Ben Rich decides
2:25:36
that he wants to put his career
2:25:38
on the line. Yeah, and take a risk and make
2:25:40
this. So he goes to the Air Force. The Air
2:25:42
Force says, well,
2:25:44
on the one hand, your timing is good.
2:25:46
We actually also think stealth technology
2:25:49
is worth pursuing. We
2:25:51
have an active RFP out
2:25:54
there. We didn't come to
2:25:56
you guys because
2:25:58
Skunkworks hasn't made a fighter plane.
2:25:59
and God knows how long. You
2:26:02
guys just had layoffs. We don't like
2:26:04
the Blackbird. Sorry, you guys
2:26:07
are old news. And
2:26:09
Ben Rich, like you said, he risked
2:26:11
his career six months into the job pursuing
2:26:13
it at all. He risks it even further.
2:26:16
He goes back to Lockheed corporate
2:26:18
and says, I want to pursue this and make
2:26:20
a prototype
2:26:21
anyway
2:26:22
without a
2:26:24
research contract. We're going to fund this
2:26:26
internally.
2:26:27
Which this is not something that defense contractors
2:26:30
do. No. We'll talk about this as
2:26:32
we get into Playbook. But it's not like a tech company
2:26:34
where you do a bunch of forward-looking R&D
2:26:37
and then amortize it over a bunch of customers
2:26:40
later. You go bid on a contract,
2:26:42
you get that contract, and then you build the
2:26:44
thing. It's so funny reading
2:26:46
less so in the early history, but when you read about Lockheed
2:26:49
today and the industry today,
2:26:51
there's all this talk of the customer.
2:26:54
The customer, there's only one customer. The
2:26:56
DOD. The DOD is the customer. It's
2:26:59
like the Amazon, oh, the empty seat for
2:27:01
the customer in the room. It's not a metaphorical
2:27:03
customer. It is a specific customer.
2:27:06
No. It's like, what does the Pentagon think?
2:27:08
Which is a good and a bad. They're unbelievably
2:27:10
customer-focused. Lockheed Martin doesn't
2:27:12
build stuff unless the
2:27:15
US government says, I'll order it, which means
2:27:17
they don't have to take a lot of risk. But on the other hand,
2:27:19
they also don't get the upside from taking risk,
2:27:21
typically.
2:27:22
And this is how crazy this situation is. It
2:27:24
is literally the opposite of what you just said. This
2:27:28
is Ben Rich's neck on the line. This is Skunk Works
2:27:30
on the line. This is everything.
2:27:33
So they go and they build a prototype. It's nicknamed
2:27:35
the Hopeless Diamond. The codename is Have
2:27:38
Blue, H-A-V-E-B-L-U-E.
2:27:41
And I mentioned ball bearings earlier. They make a model
2:27:43
of this thing, a wooden model. They put it
2:27:45
up on a pole. They test it in a radar
2:27:47
range alongside the other prototypes from other
2:27:50
contractors for a stealth fighter that the Pentagon
2:27:52
has put out.
2:27:54
And
2:27:55
this thing is invisible, the way that the
2:27:57
Air Force inspectors...
2:27:59
come up with testing it is they get
2:28:02
a set of ball bearings of increasingly
2:28:04
smaller diameters
2:28:06
and they attach them to the nose cone of the
2:28:08
wooden model at the radar range
2:28:11
and they see if you can detect
2:28:13
the ball bearing or if it's blacked
2:28:16
out by like this massive plane model
2:28:18
behind it
2:28:19
and they can detect
2:28:21
a ball bearing down to a diameter of
2:28:23
an eighth of an inch.
2:28:25
So the radar signature of this plane is
2:28:27
less than an eighth of an inch sphere. It's
2:28:29
unbelievable. The thing is all
2:28:32
flat surfaces. So it basically
2:28:34
bounces the radar everywhere except
2:28:37
for the transmitter receiver that
2:28:39
is actually shooting the radar waves at it. So
2:28:42
will it fly and can you control it are still
2:28:44
open questions but we now know that it is like
2:28:46
oh my god radar invisible. Yeah. So
2:28:49
out of that
2:28:50
the dark horse Skunk Works wins the contract
2:28:52
to build the Air Force's stealth
2:28:54
fighter. They do. They
2:28:57
solve the challenges you just mentioned and
2:28:59
they solve them
2:29:00
with computers for the first time or at
2:29:02
least that we know of really the first time in Skunk Works history.
2:29:05
The way you control this thing is with
2:29:08
fly by wire which I'd heard that term
2:29:10
before but fly by wire means
2:29:13
that the planes systems are controlled
2:29:15
by a computer and when you move the controls
2:29:17
as a pilot you are not directly
2:29:19
moving the mechanics. The computer decides
2:29:22
how to translate your intentions into
2:29:25
stabilized movements for the alien. Power
2:29:28
steering. Exactly. Well it's even
2:29:30
more than it's like doing all sorts
2:29:32
of stuff that you have no idea. Right.
2:29:34
To make it do what you want to do. Right.
2:29:37
I mean it's a Tesla basically. It's abstracting away your inputs
2:29:40
and doing the thing that is optimal based
2:29:42
on what it's pretty sure your inputs want it to do. Yeah.
2:29:45
So they win the contract. They start testing this
2:29:47
thing at of course area 51
2:29:50
and the stealth fighter really looks like an alien
2:29:52
spaceship. I
2:29:54
don't blame all these people with the binoculars who are
2:29:56
pretty sure there's aliens. I don't blame
2:29:59
them either.
2:29:59
The Air Force starts taking delivery in 1983
2:30:02
of the stealth fighter from Skunk Works.
2:30:06
They ultimately buy 59 of them of the
2:30:08
F-117A Nighthawks at $43 million each. So
2:30:13
that is $2.5 billion
2:30:15
in revenue for a Lockheed, a time
2:30:18
when they desperately needed it. And Skunk
2:30:20
Works desperately needed it. Huge win
2:30:22
for Ben Rich. Huge win. The
2:30:25
real combat debut for the Nighthawk
2:30:27
is during the Gulf War, during Operation
2:30:29
Desert
2:30:29
Storm. So that's what, six years
2:30:32
that they keep it
2:30:33
undeployed, where they have it, but the
2:30:35
US government has decided that we want
2:30:37
to save it? Well, where are they going to use it? We're not
2:30:39
really fighting any wars. And this is a fighter.
2:30:41
This isn't a reconnaissance plane. This is a fighter
2:30:44
slash tactical strike
2:30:46
plane. Which, again, Skunk Works hasn't built
2:30:48
one of those since, I guess, what, the 104
2:30:51
Starfighter?
2:30:53
I think that's right. I mean, yeah, the F in F-117
2:30:55
is fighter. The SR-71 was not an F plane.
2:31:00
So
2:31:00
the plane is never really tested
2:31:03
in combat of what it can do until
2:31:06
Operation Desert Storm. And I
2:31:08
remember watching this live when this
2:31:11
happened. I don't know if you remember this, Ben, but
2:31:13
I vividly remember when this happened. The
2:31:15
first night of the war,
2:31:18
Operation Desert Storm, I mean, this is broadcast
2:31:21
live to the world.
2:31:22
The US Air Force completely
2:31:25
knocks out
2:31:27
all of Baghdad's defenses
2:31:30
and infrastructure.
2:31:31
And the way they do it
2:31:32
is with the Nighthawks.
2:31:34
They came in under the dark of night. No one
2:31:36
knew they were coming. They hit a bunch
2:31:38
of the high value targets. And then
2:31:41
these wars now tend to be these overwhelming
2:31:43
force at the start and then long,
2:31:46
long drawn out
2:31:48
battles after that. But this set
2:31:50
the stage for what the modern
2:31:52
military engagement looks like. Yeah. So
2:31:55
a few quotes here that are in Skunk Works. First
2:31:57
from the Secretary of the Air Force at the time. We
2:31:59
love
2:31:59
that night the first night of the Gulf War. And
2:32:02
for many nights after that,
2:32:03
that stealth combined with precision weapons
2:32:05
constituted a quantum advance in
2:32:08
air warfare. Ever since World War
2:32:10
II, when radar systems first came into play, air
2:32:12
warfare planners thought that surprise
2:32:15
attacks were rendered null and void, and
2:32:17
thought in terms of large armadas to overwhelm
2:32:19
the enemy and get a few attack aircraft
2:32:21
through to do damage.
2:32:23
Now we again think it's small numbers, and
2:32:25
in staging surprise surgically precise
2:32:28
raids.
2:32:29
And then another quote here from
2:32:31
one of the pilots that flew that night.
2:32:34
To put it in domestic terms, if
2:32:36
Baghdad had been Washington, that
2:32:39
first night we knocked out their White House,
2:32:41
their Capitol building, their Pentagon, their CIA, their
2:32:43
FBI, and took out their telephone and telegraph
2:32:46
facilities. We damaged Andrews Air Force Base,
2:32:48
Langley, and Baling, and we punched
2:32:50
big holes in all the key Potomac
2:32:53
River bridges. And that was just the first
2:32:55
night.
2:32:56
So this thing is deadly. The Nighthawk
2:32:58
very much worked.
2:32:59
The Nighthawk flew 1% of the air
2:33:01
missions in Desert Storm, but accounted
2:33:03
for 40% of all damaged targets.
2:33:07
And so while this plane was a
2:33:09
massive success for what it was intended
2:33:12
to do, this is where I sort of want
2:33:14
to stop glorifying some
2:33:16
of the military might the way that we did in
2:33:18
the Cold War, which was like,
2:33:20
obviously for deterrent. This
2:33:22
is when the foreign policy sort of changes a little bit
2:33:24
in a way where you're... Yeah, people are dying here. Yeah.
2:33:27
This is the incredible paradox of
2:33:29
this.
2:33:30
The most overwhelming
2:33:34
and terrifying weaponry
2:33:37
ever created and weapons capabilities ever
2:33:39
created was never used
2:33:42
and was created so that it would never be used.
2:33:44
Right. It's fascinating. Yeah, totally.
2:33:47
But here, this stuff is used and a lot of people
2:33:49
died. For the F-117A, 10,000
2:33:52
people worked on this airplane, the Nighthawk, and
2:33:54
kept the secret for 21 years
2:33:56
until it was declassified.
2:33:58
Wow. Crazy. Yeah.
2:34:01
Let's just divorce any value judgments here for the moment.
2:34:04
In terms of the airplane itself and
2:34:06
Lockheed and Skunk Works and the company, while
2:34:09
Desert Storm was on the one hand
2:34:11
this great success story for the
2:34:13
airplane, there's
2:34:14
also kind of the end. That's the end of the Cold
2:34:16
War. Yup. There is
2:34:19
no doubt after Desert Storm and all the other
2:34:21
things that happened in the following of the Berlin
2:34:23
Wall by the early to mid
2:34:25
90s, it's done.
2:34:27
And this success of the Nighthawk and
2:34:29
success of the US military from
2:34:32
a military standpoint during the Gulf
2:34:34
War,
2:34:35
you know, that sets the conditions to
2:34:37
bring us to the modern era
2:34:40
and Lockheed today, which
2:34:42
is not Lockheed, but Lockheed Martin.
2:34:45
And Boeing today, which is not Boeing, but
2:34:48
Boeing and McDonnell Douglas and this incredible
2:34:50
era of consolidation. Right. Northrop,
2:34:53
which is not Northrop, but Northrop Grumman and
2:34:55
which
2:34:56
very closely almost
2:34:58
was part of Lockheed Martin, but got
2:35:00
blocked by the DOJ. Yeah. And
2:35:03
then you have Raytheon and General Dynamics, which have eaten
2:35:05
their fair share of all the other competitors
2:35:08
too.
2:35:09
So the Gulf conflict I think
2:35:11
ends in 91, I believe.
2:35:13
And it becomes really obvious that the
2:35:15
Cold War era of arms buildup
2:35:17
in the US is over and
2:35:20
defense budgets are going to shrink massively.
2:35:23
And we need to start nuclear disarmament. We need
2:35:25
to start destroying a lot of the nuclear
2:35:27
warheads that we build.
2:35:29
Right. And everybody in the industry
2:35:31
knows it. And then it becomes super explicit.
2:35:34
This is kind of an amazing event that happens in
2:35:37
July of 1993. The
2:35:39
then deputy defense secretary, William
2:35:42
Perry,
2:35:43
calls the CEOs
2:35:46
of all the major prime defense
2:35:49
contractors to a dinner in Washington
2:35:52
at which
2:35:54
he explicitly tells them
2:35:56
defense spending
2:35:57
is going to shrink massively. Duh, you know.
2:35:59
that
2:36:00
and he instructs the CEOs present
2:36:03
that you all need to consolidate and start
2:36:05
merging with one another.
2:36:07
We the Defense Department are no longer
2:36:09
going to be able to feed all of the metaphorical
2:36:11
mouths at this table and the
2:36:13
CEO of then Martin Marietta
2:36:16
soon to be Lockheed Martin
2:36:18
refers to this dinner tongue in cheek as
2:36:21
the last supper and
2:36:23
indeed it was. This is an amazing event
2:36:25
literally a government agency
2:36:29
just told an industry
2:36:31
what to do. This doesn't happen in America.
2:36:34
Very explicitly and this was rumored for a
2:36:36
long time. People were like, wait, did this really happen?
2:36:38
The US government instructed these
2:36:40
big companies to become
2:36:42
anti-competitive to all merge together.
2:36:45
And this 1993 thing
2:36:47
really kicks off an era of intentional
2:36:51
government policy around combining
2:36:54
companies.
2:36:55
Yeah, which is very odd American
2:36:57
industry and I think as we
2:37:00
saw during the Cold War era,
2:37:03
America functions on competition and
2:37:05
thrives in competition and here the government is saying
2:37:08
less competition.
2:37:09
And in part they're basically saying,
2:37:12
look, it's an acknowledgement that
2:37:14
a lot of the times companies thrive
2:37:16
because they're in growing markets and this
2:37:18
is now a shrinking market. So
2:37:20
what do you do if you want
2:37:23
to maintain America's
2:37:25
military industrial base but you know
2:37:28
for a fact the market is shrinking this year and likely
2:37:31
every year for the next decade or two. Like
2:37:33
what do you actually do? And so I
2:37:35
think the intent here is
2:37:38
to say
2:37:39
we don't want to lose capability.
2:37:42
We want the US to remain a
2:37:44
country that has a whole bunch of people
2:37:46
that know how to build this stuff.
2:37:49
So if we need it, it's there but
2:37:52
you're going to put each other out of business because we
2:37:54
just won't have enough for you. So you need to
2:37:56
like merge and get more efficient so
2:37:58
we don't lose the muscle.
2:37:59
but
2:38:01
you all have real businesses,
2:38:03
real going concerns. And this whole like,
2:38:05
so you don't lose the muscle thing, that
2:38:07
is unique on this episode versus any other
2:38:09
episode because the government is an indifferent
2:38:12
player in almost every episode
2:38:14
of every company that we talk about. But in this one, they're
2:38:17
an extremely interested party where it is in
2:38:19
the national interest. They are the
2:38:21
customer. Right. It is in the
2:38:23
national interest for us to maintain this capability
2:38:26
or so that's the sort of policy. Yep.
2:38:28
So this sets off an amazing series
2:38:31
of events, kind of similar to
2:38:33
harkening back to the LVMH episode when
2:38:36
Louis Vuitton and
2:38:37
Moet Hennessy merged
2:38:40
not because they liked each other or because there was a
2:38:42
business reason, they merged for like practicalities
2:38:45
and to avoid dying and getting taken
2:38:47
over by hostile raiders. In 1993,
2:38:51
Lockheed buys General Dynamics
2:38:53
fighter jet business that we already talked about, the F-16
2:38:55
business.
2:38:56
And then in 1994,
2:38:58
the big shoe drops, they announced a quote merger
2:39:01
of equals with Martin Marietta.
2:39:03
That goes through in 1995.
2:39:05
Except they
2:39:07
didn't merge everything about, there's two spin
2:39:09
outs of the Lockheed Martin combination.
2:39:12
One is there's another set
2:39:15
of things that Martin Marietta does around
2:39:17
minerals and mining. And so there's
2:39:19
literally a Martin Marietta company
2:39:22
that's publicly traded today that still exists that's
2:39:24
around mining raw materials. Do
2:39:26
you know this because you looked up the mine safety disclosures?
2:39:29
I was disappointed to see that there were no mine safety disclosures
2:39:32
in Lockheed Martin's financials. There's
2:39:34
another thing that spins
2:39:35
out called L3 Communications,
2:39:37
which is the set of things
2:39:40
that won't be combining into Lockheed
2:39:42
Martin.
2:39:43
And this has actually become a fairly
2:39:45
formidable competitor today. There's the five big primes,
2:39:48
Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman,
2:39:50
and General Dynamics. And L3
2:39:52
is kind of growing, which is fairly
2:39:54
unprecedented in this era of primes.
2:39:57
But you might be saying, what is the L3?
2:39:59
Well, There were three L's involved in
2:40:01
creating this company. One of them was
2:40:03
the investment bank that helped combine them. Lehman
2:40:06
Brothers. Yes.
2:40:09
Frank Lanza, Robert Lapenta,
2:40:12
and Lehman Brothers are the L's. So
2:40:15
the
2:40:16
assets that do merge of Lockheed and
2:40:18
Martin in January, 1996, shortly
2:40:22
after
2:40:22
the big merger goes through,
2:40:24
they then acquire the defense business
2:40:27
from Loral
2:40:28
for almost $10 billion.
2:40:30
And then, as we said a minute ago, in July, 1997,
2:40:33
they attempt to merge with Northrop
2:40:35
Grumman. Right, this is like Lockheed Martin sort of like
2:40:37
looks at the DOD and they're like, are we supposed to keep going?
2:40:39
Yeah, like you told us to do this, right? Yeah. They
2:40:42
misread the tea leaves on that one. That merger
2:40:45
gets announced. Everybody signed off the
2:40:47
DOJ blocks it, I assume with
2:40:50
tacit approval from the DOD on that.
2:40:52
Yeah, I mean, the thing with the five big primes is
2:40:54
they're all like very good at a certain
2:40:56
bucket of things. And so if
2:40:59
you start combining Lockheed
2:41:01
and Northrop, which are the two that really kind of
2:41:03
like bid against each other at this point in history,
2:41:05
I mean, like the B2 bomber and the B21, like
2:41:07
there's often this face off between Northrop
2:41:10
and Lockheed. If you combine them, then
2:41:12
you actually do away with all competition. Yeah,
2:41:15
would have been so fitting, right? Given that Northrop
2:41:17
was a co-founder of Lockheed, but
2:41:21
all the way back to the beginning of the episode. So
2:41:23
the DOJ blocks that, but also in 1997, Boeing
2:41:26
merges with McDonnell Douglas and becomes
2:41:29
the giant that it is now. Do you know why
2:41:31
that happened? Oh, I do not.
2:41:33
So we're going to talk here in a second about the F-22 program and
2:41:36
the F-35 program. We'll skip over
2:41:38
the F-22 for the moment, just to hit this point.
2:41:41
For the JSF, the Joint
2:41:43
Strike Fighter F-35 program,
2:41:46
this is going to be like the biggest ever
2:41:48
military contract. And so it's really
2:41:51
worth going for. And there's three companies that are worth
2:41:53
gunning for in the mid-90s. There's Lockheed
2:41:55
Martin right after their combination. There's
2:41:57
Boeing. And there's still independent.
2:41:59
at McDonald Douglas. And
2:42:03
McDonald Douglas is eliminated
2:42:05
from competition. So it just comes down
2:42:08
to Boeing and Lockheed as the two finalists.
2:42:10
Within a month,
2:42:12
Boeing announces that it's buying McDonald
2:42:14
Douglas. Yeah, that was probably the end of McDonald
2:42:16
Douglas once they got eliminated. Exactly.
2:42:19
This contract is so big and they were
2:42:21
betting so heavily on it that basically
2:42:24
Boeing and McDonald Douglas after McDonald
2:42:26
Douglas loses kind of need to just combine and
2:42:28
size up in order to be a formidable
2:42:30
competitor to Lockheed Martin going forward.
2:42:33
Do you know the size of the
2:42:35
F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, like
2:42:37
in terms of dollars? I do. It is
2:42:39
a $30 billion DOD contract for 398 airplanes
2:42:42
just
2:42:42
for the US. We'll talk about
2:42:46
that in a minute, but it was a prize worth going
2:42:48
for.
2:42:49
So yeah, if you lose this contract, this
2:42:51
is literally life or death, whether you get this or not.
2:42:54
Right. So losing this creates some extreme
2:42:57
combination. And obviously this sets the
2:42:59
stage. I'm going to hand it over to you in a minute to lead the discussion
2:43:01
of all the
2:43:02
dynamics around this and the military industrial
2:43:04
complex and defense contractors today. But to
2:43:06
set the stage, I have a few quotes from
2:43:08
Norm Augustine, who was CEO
2:43:11
of Martin Marietta, where the merger happens.
2:43:13
And Dan Tellup, the CEO of Lockheed is the
2:43:16
first CEO of the combined company. Dan
2:43:18
came up through LMSC,
2:43:20
started there, worked in LMSC for decades, and then
2:43:22
became the CEO of Lockheed. He's the first
2:43:24
CEO of the combined company. And then Norm takes
2:43:27
over for a few years after that.
2:43:28
In 1997, Norm
2:43:30
is a character. He's a serious
2:43:33
character. He writes a Harvard
2:43:35
Business Review article. I want to read
2:43:37
a few quotes from this.
2:43:38
Following the Last Supper,
2:43:40
which he termed it the Last Supper, it became
2:43:43
evident that there were only two potential survival
2:43:45
strategies. One was to move into
2:43:47
new markets. He's meeting commercial
2:43:49
markets, a difficult and time consuming
2:43:51
option that has rarely succeeded. And as we
2:43:53
talked about,
2:43:54
definitely Lockheed tried that in
2:43:56
the 70s and failed miserably with the L1011.
2:43:59
The other strategy
2:44:02
entailed something almost as difficult,
2:44:04
increasing market share in existing
2:44:06
markets during a period of severely
2:44:09
declining businesses. Duh,
2:44:10
this is what we're talking about. And
2:44:12
he says, here's what happened. He just lays it
2:44:14
all out here.
2:44:15
Lockheed soon purchased General Dynamics
2:44:17
Aircraft Business and Martin Marietta purchased
2:44:20
General Electric's Aerospace Business.
2:44:22
All told, our company comprises 17
2:44:25
previously independent entities,
2:44:27
like independent until recent times,
2:44:30
as he's writing this.
2:44:31
General Dynamics, Sanders, Gold
2:44:34
Ocean Systems, GE Aerospace, RCA
2:44:36
Aerospace, Xerox Electro-Optical Systems,
2:44:39
Goodyear Aerospace, Fairchild Weston,
2:44:41
Honeywell Electro-Optics, Ford Aerospace,
2:44:44
LibraScope, IBM Federal Systems, Unisys
2:44:47
Defense, Lockheed, Martin Marietta,
2:44:49
and Loral.
2:44:50
What a Franken company.
2:44:52
As we've been alluding to, these were not very
2:44:55
profitable
2:44:56
entities. So Lockheed,
2:44:58
at the time of the merger,
2:44:59
did 13 billion in revenue and only 422
2:45:02
million in net income.
2:45:05
Martin Marietta was slightly more profitable,
2:45:07
did 9.4 billion in revenue and 450 million in
2:45:11
net income.
2:45:12
So both of these are like 10% or
2:45:14
less net income margins.
2:45:16
Yeah. And you basically have a situation
2:45:18
where like
2:45:19
all these contracts kind of go to
2:45:22
all of the contractors. They
2:45:24
just rotate around who's the prime on it. And the prime makes
2:45:26
the most money and then it has the most sort
2:45:28
of sway and you don't want to be with a subcontractor,
2:45:31
you'd rather be the prime contractor. But
2:45:33
still, this current
2:45:35
military industrial complex is very,
2:45:39
all five players are basically in on all
2:45:41
the big contracts and the government's very aware
2:45:43
of that and the companies are all very aware of that
2:45:45
and it sort of reached this stasis.
2:45:48
Yep.
2:45:48
So Ben Rich basically called
2:45:51
it in 1992 when he was talking about, this
2:45:53
is at the end of the Skunk Works book, about the end
2:45:55
of the B2 bomber program, which by the
2:45:57
way, the B2 was kind of a
2:45:59
make good.
2:45:59
when they gave that to Northrop Grumman.
2:46:02
This is the stealth bomber? Yeah. By
2:46:05
all means, that should have gone to Lockheed Martin. They had the
2:46:07
expertise from the F-117A, Nighthawk, and
2:46:11
I
2:46:11
mean, this is the Lockheed side of the story, but they
2:46:14
beat the B-2 in a lot of the early
2:46:16
competitions. But the government still gave the award
2:46:18
to Northrop Grumman because there
2:46:20
was some particular plane that the government said
2:46:22
Northrop could manufacture a bunch of and then
2:46:24
sell internationally and then change their mind. And
2:46:27
so then Northrop was sort of left holding the bag.
2:46:30
And so it was the Department of Defense being like, all right,
2:46:32
you can win this competition.
2:46:34
And who knows if any of these things are true? That's
2:46:36
Lockheed side of the story. But anyway, Ben
2:46:39
writes,
2:46:40
under the current manufacturing arrangements for
2:46:42
the B-2, Boeing makes the wings, Northrop
2:46:44
makes the cockpit, LTV makes the bomb bays,
2:46:46
and the back end of the B-2 airplane, in addition
2:46:49
to 4,000 subcontractors working
2:46:51
on bits and pieces of everything else. Because
2:46:53
of the tremendous costs involved, this
2:46:56
is probably a blueprint for how big
2:46:58
expensive airplanes will be built in the future.
2:47:01
For better or for worse, this piecemeal
2:47:03
manufacturing approach, rather than the
2:47:05
skunkworks way, will characterize large
2:47:07
aerospace projects from now on. With
2:47:10
many fewer projects, the government will
2:47:12
have to spread the workaround across an even
2:47:15
broader horizon. What will happen to the efficiency,
2:47:17
the quality and the decision-making? At
2:47:19
a time of maximum belt tightening in aerospace,
2:47:22
those are not just words, but may well represent
2:47:24
the keys to a company's ability to
2:47:26
survive.
2:47:28
Yep.
2:47:29
So I think that sort of 1992 Ben Rich, publishing
2:47:33
the Skunkworks book,
2:47:34
then the Last Supper, it basically
2:47:37
marks the end of skunkworks. Skunkworks
2:47:39
is still a term that is used
2:47:41
to describe a part of Lockheed Martin,
2:47:44
but is it the skunkworks of
2:47:46
the 50s, 60s, 70s? No, not
2:47:48
at all. It's a completely different thing. And
2:47:51
airplanes are just not built
2:47:53
by small teams in this sort of
2:47:55
auteur way, the way that they were in Kelly's era.
2:47:58
So let's talk about some of these.
2:47:59
huge programs, these
2:48:02
large fleets of planes that the US government
2:48:04
has bought in recent years. And we'll
2:48:06
start with the F-22. And this gives you a sense of how freaking
2:48:09
long these timeframes take.
2:48:10
So in 1981,
2:48:13
the Air Force identified a requirement
2:48:15
for an advanced tactical fighter
2:48:17
to replace the F-15 Eagle and the F-16
2:48:20
Fighting Falcon. So that sort of kicks off
2:48:23
this we're going to need some future thing.
2:48:26
In 1985, the initial
2:48:29
order, and I don't know if it's technically an order
2:48:31
or how it sort of changes over time, but the initial
2:48:34
pseudo commitment is for
2:48:36
the US government to buy 750 planes
2:48:40
of what becomes the F-22 Raptor
2:48:43
for $44 billion in the
2:48:45
total program cost. Wow. That
2:48:47
gets revised down.
2:48:49
Again, an airplane has not flown yet. Just
2:48:52
before 1997, to 339 planes, that's going from 750 to 339, for $62
2:48:54
billion in total program
2:49:01
cost. That cost went up,
2:49:04
even though the number of planes dramatically
2:49:07
went down to like half.
2:49:09
I was wondering, I was like, did Ben misspeak
2:49:11
there? Nope. Then,
2:49:13
the F-22 program
2:49:14
is over. It was
2:49:16
a big thing in the Obama administration where he basically
2:49:19
said, I'm going to veto anything that comes to my desk
2:49:21
for any more Raptors. We're done with this.
2:49:23
But it's not as good as it sounds. No,
2:49:25
it's not as noble.
2:49:27
The final, down from 750 to 339, is 187 planes
2:49:29
delivered.
2:49:33
They kept the $62 billion total
2:49:35
program cost fixed. They managed to
2:49:37
do that. Each plane
2:49:39
ends up costing $360 million
2:49:42
if you amortize all the R&D
2:49:45
against the very few airplanes that
2:49:47
they ended up making.
2:49:48
The
2:49:50
F-22, much like the SR-71, there's
2:49:53
not much we can complain about with the plane. It is a
2:49:55
bad ass plane. In fact, for Seafair
2:49:58
here in Seattle, the last ... few years they've
2:50:00
had an F-22, it is an unbelievable
2:50:03
thing to see live.
2:50:05
It performs maneuvers that just look alien.
2:50:07
I mean, you just don't understand how the physics makes it work.
2:50:10
It was all about air superiority. It was all
2:50:12
about speed. They took all of
2:50:14
the stealth lessons from the
2:50:17
F-117 and put it into a
2:50:19
very fast air dominating airplane.
2:50:22
So
2:50:23
the stealth fighter, the Nighthawk,
2:50:26
was angular and looked like a Super
2:50:28
Nintendo Star Fox plane because
2:50:31
the computational ability
2:50:34
to model it at the time, it wasn't
2:50:36
that you needed to have just flat
2:50:38
surfaces. It's that you could
2:50:40
have three dimensional rounded
2:50:42
looking surfaces. You just needed to be able to model
2:50:45
it for the radar signature
2:50:46
and computers weren't advanced enough at the time
2:50:48
to be able to build a 3D
2:50:51
modeled version of a radar
2:50:54
stealth structure.
2:50:56
As they advanced, you are now
2:50:59
able to do that in much the
2:51:01
same way that in video games, you
2:51:03
can now build lifelike looking
2:51:06
3D models out of the same polygons
2:51:09
before. And so the Sega,
2:51:11
I think it was the Model 3 arcade
2:51:13
board that we talked about that
2:51:16
was part of the real 3D revolution
2:51:18
in video games. They used it in the
2:51:20
arcade cabinets, right? The cutting edge better
2:51:22
than home consoles, computers, virtual
2:51:25
racer, virtual cop, virtual
2:51:26
fighter being the big one where on that
2:51:29
Sega co-developed those boards with Lockheed Martin
2:51:32
in order to model the
2:51:35
stealth airplanes. Yes.
2:51:37
Unbelievable. That
2:51:38
is insane. So fun.
2:51:41
So what we can see here is sort of
2:51:44
the classic modern, boondoggle
2:51:46
is probably the wrong word, but program
2:51:48
gone awry where there's
2:51:50
a sensible total program cost for making
2:51:53
a lot of airplanes. And then as there
2:51:55
is more pressure on the budget over time
2:51:57
and there's cutbacks that happen,
2:51:59
up making less and less airplanes. And
2:52:02
so it's really hard to amortize all
2:52:04
the R&D costs. And because of
2:52:06
the way that these contracts work, it's not the tech
2:52:09
company that's left holding the bag. It's
2:52:11
not the contractor holding the bag. It's total
2:52:13
cost plus model. The company,
2:52:15
the contractor, Lockheed, doesn't take any risk.
2:52:18
And so who's holding the bag? The government's
2:52:20
just paying more for each airplane rather
2:52:23
than, you know, you could imagine if I was
2:52:25
an apple and I sunk a
2:52:27
billion dollars into developing the next great
2:52:29
device and then no one bought them. I'm out a billion.
2:52:32
But in this scenario, the government's like, look, I
2:52:34
told you I'd pay that much. I'm paying that much.
2:52:37
And unfortunately, I just can't spread
2:52:39
the R&D across as many units.
2:52:42
Wow. It's the R&D, but also the tooling
2:52:44
like we were talking about with the Blackbird. Totally.
2:52:47
The infrastructure that you need to spin up to make
2:52:49
a new
2:52:50
airplane is a
2:52:52
lot.
2:52:54
Following Ben Rich's sort of, hey, I think this
2:52:56
is how airplanes are going to be made in the future.
2:52:59
This happens in 46 states.
2:53:02
The F-22 is built in 46 states. Yes.
2:53:06
And it requires 95,000 jobs,
2:53:09
which in
2:53:10
some ways is good. It's good to employ
2:53:12
people. In other ways, the
2:53:15
reason that some of these projects get funded
2:53:18
is because it creates these jobs. And
2:53:20
the reason that it's in 46 states
2:53:23
is because that
2:53:24
way, basically every
2:53:27
member of Congress is incented to vote
2:53:29
for it. You're talking about pork barrel
2:53:31
politics.
2:53:33
Exactly. So I think Lockheed
2:53:35
has become world class at understanding where
2:53:37
their bread is buttered. Yes, their customers,
2:53:39
the U.S. government, but the people
2:53:42
approving their funding are individual
2:53:44
people, these members of Congress who all
2:53:46
want to get reelected. And so Lockheed
2:53:49
spreads all these operations around. They employ all these people
2:53:52
and members of Congress love nothing more than creating
2:53:54
jobs for their constituents. And they hate nothing more than
2:53:56
participating in a vote that eliminates
2:53:58
jobs. And so. Congress
2:54:00
can kind of be simplified to 538 principal
2:54:02
agent problems.
2:54:05
And contrast that with the team of,
2:54:08
you know, what, 50 engineers
2:54:10
and 100 machinists that built the U-2? Yeah,
2:54:13
of course the F-22 is a much more advanced airplane
2:54:16
than the U-2, but the size of
2:54:18
the engineering challenge relative
2:54:20
to state-of-the-art technology was way
2:54:22
less than the size of the U-2 engineering challenge
2:54:25
relative to state-of-the-art technology. Yep.
2:54:28
So then there's the next program that comes along,
2:54:30
the F-35 Lightning II, the
2:54:32
Joint Strike Fighter. And so,
2:54:35
you know, the mindset here is, well,
2:54:37
we finally get it. We need to make a lot of these things
2:54:39
if we're going to make a big investment. The government
2:54:41
sort of pulls its resources and the DOD
2:54:43
sort of works across the armed services
2:54:46
and they reach out to all of our allies, Britain
2:54:48
and others, and they say, what's like a common
2:54:50
platform that we can develop
2:54:53
so that we can get the best economies of
2:54:55
scale out of this thing? That's the right thing for the American
2:54:57
taxpayer. And so they come up with this idea
2:54:59
for the F-35 Lightning II,
2:55:01
and they're going to make three models, and
2:55:03
each of the models are for a different purpose.
2:55:06
It's this incredible piece
2:55:08
of technology. One of the three models can actually
2:55:11
angle its engine down and
2:55:14
take off vertically using its
2:55:16
engine to reposition. I don't think they can use this
2:55:18
in combat, but they can like use it to move
2:55:20
itself around on an aircraft carrier
2:55:22
and stuff like that. It's pretty incredible
2:55:25
to watch videos of it if you just go search on
2:55:27
YouTube.
2:55:28
It interestingly
2:55:29
has a different
2:55:31
aim and mentality than the F-22. It's
2:55:33
less about being sort of the fastest plane
2:55:35
in the skies and much more about having
2:55:38
the technology and the visibility
2:55:40
to have the best information
2:55:42
at all times. It's sort of looking
2:55:45
to the future of information-based
2:55:47
warfare more than pure
2:55:50
air superiority and speed. It's not
2:55:52
all the way to like a drone future or a cybersecurity
2:55:55
future, but you can see it drifting there, really
2:55:57
intense communications between a whole bunch of
2:55:59
people. whole squadron of fighters, intense
2:56:02
heads up displays with digital stuff for
2:56:04
the pilots in the cockpits and in their helmets.
2:56:06
And so it's sort of like the most
2:56:09
technology forward
2:56:11
plane program ever. So
2:56:14
when I say big, I mean
2:56:16
really big in terms of the number of orders
2:56:18
that are going to be placed, the initial order
2:56:21
book is approximately 3000 airplanes
2:56:24
worth a potential $200
2:56:27
billion for
2:56:29
the total program cost. Wow. In
2:56:32
practice,
2:56:33
it's kind of as pork
2:56:35
barely as the F-22. Lockheed
2:56:38
won the contract, but it's subcontracted.
2:56:41
It's peanut buttered out to all the other big programs
2:56:43
too. The fuselage is Northrop Grumman. BAA
2:56:46
systems from the UK makes the rear fuselage.
2:56:49
These pieces are shipped all over the globe before
2:56:51
final assembly. So we've sort of expanded
2:56:53
it even from pork barrel in the US to
2:56:55
like, which of our allies can participate
2:56:58
in making this thing and thus benefiting
2:57:01
in their area too. So
2:57:03
here's some of the stats from Lockheed's 2022 annual report.
2:57:07
The USA's F-35 order is a $30 billion order just
2:57:10
from the US, $30 billion.
2:57:15
That's 398 airplanes.
2:57:19
That is $750 million per airplane. The
2:57:23
Swiss have placed an order for $6 billion for 36
2:57:25
airplanes. Finland bought 64,
2:57:28
Germany 35, Greece 20, the Czech 24, Canada 88, Poland 32. Lockheed
2:57:36
Martin, this is an enormous
2:57:38
win to win this program and it is
2:57:40
among us and our allies the
2:57:42
largest ever purchase anyone
2:57:44
has ever made for any piece of defense equipment. It's
2:57:47
just so clear
2:57:49
listening to you talk about that and
2:57:51
contrasting it with
2:57:53
everything we talked about in the story portion
2:57:55
of the episode.
2:57:56
This is a different world than...
2:58:00
the Lockheed of World
2:58:02
War II and the Cold War, and the military
2:58:04
of World War II and the Cold War.
2:58:06
It's very unclear to me what the threat-based need
2:58:08
is here for this. Well,
2:58:10
yeah,
2:58:11
hopefully deterrence.
2:58:14
Well, I guess, I don't know. I'm not a military
2:58:16
strategist, but you mentioned drones.
2:58:19
Drones are a thing now, and they're a lot
2:58:21
cheaper.
2:58:22
Yeah, put a pin in that for the moment.
2:58:24
I'll finish rounding out the national
2:58:27
defense budget, just to put all this in
2:58:29
context of what
2:58:31
Lockheed represents here. So
2:58:33
our national defense budget in the United
2:58:35
States is $800 billion. As
2:58:37
you would expect, that's more than any other country in
2:58:40
the world. It's 3% to 4%
2:58:42
of our GDP
2:58:44
we spend on defense.
2:58:46
Interestingly, it is down on a percentage
2:58:49
basis of, when you think about the
2:58:51
percent of federal revenue spent on defense,
2:58:53
it's actually down. Back in the 60s, we
2:58:55
spent half of our federal revenue
2:58:58
on the military.
2:58:59
And in recent years, it's fluctuated
2:59:02
between 12% and 20%.
2:59:04
So I think that's a little bit of a counter narrative
2:59:06
to people that like to complain about how much
2:59:08
money we spend on the military. Well, I guess it is
2:59:11
to the
2:59:12
point of consolidation in the last supper.
2:59:15
The government was clear, we're going to spend a lot less. We're
2:59:17
just going to spend it in a much more concentrated
2:59:20
fashion. Exactly.
2:59:21
The military-industrial-congressional
2:59:24
complex has really, it's almost like
2:59:26
what's happened to the banking system. We like pseudo-nationalize
2:59:29
a few companies. There's these too big to fail
2:59:32
entities that are like in
2:59:34
cooperation with the government, neither can really
2:59:36
exist without each other. And we just
2:59:39
are OK with that. We say, OK, that's how the
2:59:41
system works. And for better or for worse,
2:59:44
private industry and the government are tied at
2:59:46
the hip there.
2:59:47
So a few more stats
2:59:49
on this. So I said in recent years, the government's
2:59:53
DOD, or defense spending, is between 12% and 20%.
2:59:56
The total US government budget
2:59:59
is $6 trillion.
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