0:02

Hello

0:06

Prestigeheads and

0:09

welcome to American Prestige.

0:24

I'm Danny Besner here as always

0:26

with my friend and comrade Derek

0:28

Davison and we are excited

0:30

to bring you the news. Derek, let's start

0:32

with this discussion about a potential Iranian attack

0:34

on Israel, which has, there's been a lot

0:36

of rumors over the past few days as

0:38

of the time of recording, no attack has

0:41

occurred, but what has been going on? Yeah,

0:44

I'm not sure excited is how I would

0:47

characterize it, but yes,

0:50

the US and Israel have

0:52

been commiserating for

0:54

several days now about the possibility of

0:57

an imminent Iranian

0:59

attack on

1:02

either Israel directly or Israeli interests in

1:04

the Middle East in response, of course,

1:07

to the Israeli strike that

1:09

hit what the Iranians claim at least, the

1:11

US is kind of hedging about this, but

1:13

the Iranians say was a consular building

1:16

attached to their embassy in Damascus.

1:19

Later this month, that was on April 1st,

1:21

that killed a number of Islamic Revolutionary Guard

1:23

Corps figures, including a

1:26

senior general. Iran's Supreme Leader

1:28

Ayatollah Khamenei repeated his promise

1:30

to retaliate. In

1:34

this case, the wicked regime made a

1:36

mistake. It must be punished

1:38

and it will be punished. The

1:42

US and Israel have basically been waiting

1:44

for the other shoe to drop as

1:46

a result of that attack, waiting for

1:48

the Iranians to fulfill the repeated promises

1:50

they have made to retaliate

1:52

for it. There

1:55

was some thinking toward the end of

1:58

last week that a response, a reta-

2:00

retaliatory strike might be imminent. They

2:02

were looking at Friday because it was

2:04

the last Friday in the Islamic Holy

2:07

Month of Ramadan. That seemed like a

2:09

candidate for a response. It didn't happen

2:12

on Friday. Then attention

2:14

shifted towards Eid, the

2:16

holiday that marks the end of

2:18

Ramadan. There was some thinking that

2:21

there might be a strike to coincide with

2:23

Eid. That didn't happen either.

2:25

Eid was Wednesday, I believe,

2:27

in Iran and in most

2:29

countries around the world. It's

2:32

a multi-day thing, but still, if you were

2:34

thinking that that was going to be the

2:36

day, then you would have thought probably Wednesday

2:38

something would have happened. Still,

2:42

according to a number of outlets, Bloomberg

2:44

reported this on Wednesday, I

2:46

believe. They put a number of other

2:49

outlets that have reported similar things. The

2:51

Biden administration still thinks

2:53

that a strike is imminent. The

2:57

commander of the US military central

2:59

command, General

3:02

Eric Carrillo, went to

3:04

Israel on Thursday apparently to coordinate

3:07

a potential response to an Iranian action or to coordinate,

3:09

kind of get everybody on the same page in the

3:11

event of some kind of Iranian action.

3:14

He had already been scheduled to go, I

3:16

guess, to talk about that humanitarian aid. Peer,

3:19

the US military's latest boondoggle in

3:21

Gaza, that's a discussion, I guess,

3:23

is off the table right now

3:26

as they focus on this potential

3:28

response. There's still no consensus

3:30

on what form the response might take,

3:32

and it largely depends

3:34

on whether the Iranians are itching

3:37

for a bigger fight or not. I

3:39

think what we've seen over

3:41

the last six months is strongly suggest that

3:43

they are not, which

3:46

probably means that if there's a response

3:48

that does come, it will come proportionate

3:50

to what happened on April 1st. So

3:52

the Iranians will target an Israeli diplomatic

3:55

facility of some kind or

3:57

some sort of Israeli interest

4:00

outside of Israel proper. However,

4:02

Karilla is in Israel and it

4:04

sounds like they are preparing for the absolute worst

4:06

case scenario, which would be a large

4:10

barrage of missiles and or drones fired

4:13

by Iran and probably its

4:15

regional partners Hezbollah, various militias

4:17

in Iraq, etc.,

4:20

toward Israel itself. That kind

4:22

of retaliation would

4:24

almost certainly mean that

4:26

we're headed to a bigger war. It

4:28

would be very difficult to contain this

4:30

conflict at that point. If the

4:32

Iranians respond in some way that is

4:35

less than that, there is still probably

4:37

room for the Israelis

4:39

to get off the

4:41

path to war, although there's no indication at

4:43

this point that they want to. Nevertheless,

4:46

the Biden administration has reportedly been doing a

4:48

number of things to try and tamp this

4:50

down. They've been passing notes in

4:53

study hall to Tehran, basically through

4:55

some intermediaries, the governments

4:57

of Iraq, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi

5:00

Arabia, all of whom

5:02

are trusted US partners but have

5:04

some relationship with Iran

5:06

and some ability to pass messages. They've

5:09

apparently been doing that. I think

5:12

probably the German

5:14

government, the German government may of its own

5:16

accord have kind of publicly said, we're calling

5:18

on the Iranians to be restrained,

5:20

but I think maybe the Biden administration

5:22

might have asked the German government to

5:24

do that. Germany does also have a

5:26

relationship with Iran. Even the Russian government

5:28

has issued a statement, which I'm sure

5:30

was not coordinated with the Biden administration,

5:32

kind of urging the Iranians to temper

5:35

whatever they do next. There's

5:37

probably some discussion, especially

5:40

with Karilla in Israel, about tempering

5:43

the Israeli response to whatever Iran does

5:45

actually do, although as I said, if

5:47

there is a maximal

5:49

response that includes

5:52

an attack on Israel from Iran, so

5:54

something that doesn't even have this sort of plausible

5:56

deniability of like it was Hezbollah that did it,

5:58

or it was a moderate. Wish you did

6:00

it. But if it comes from Iran

6:03

and they attack Israel directly, it's gonna

6:05

be i think impossible to to contain

6:07

that. Ah thanks Eric

6:09

for the grim update as always Ah

6:12

spam from updates. Let's move on to

6:14

Gaza and give us an update on

6:16

the ceasefire talks. Yeah.

6:18

They're not gone well. There was

6:21

a renewed cease fire and renewed

6:23

round a cease fire talks. That

6:26

resumes earlier this week

6:28

in Cairo. Oh, with

6:30

full attendance which was a promising sign

6:32

at the Israeli government sent a delegation,

6:34

Hamas was there. They weren't talking to

6:36

each other directly, but Hamas was in

6:39

Cairo to participate. The

6:41

country's as always the Egyptians as

6:43

always and the United States that

6:45

the administration said. Lambert. Cia

6:48

Director/ De facto Secretary of.

6:51

As it as it has been doing sir out

6:53

these talks. What? Was interesting. In

6:55

addition to the full attendance was

6:57

the a lot of reporting an

6:59

earlier this week out of Out

7:01

of Cairo suggested that the by

7:03

demonstration in the wake of last

7:06

week's of. World's. Central

7:08

Kitchen drone strike that that

7:10

really seem to have made

7:12

Joe Biden for formidably mad.

7:14

And he aimed in light

7:16

of. This. Kind of looming threat

7:19

from Iran or threat that the you

7:21

know this could escalate. Of finally

7:23

into a much bigger regional conflict

7:25

has been taking or had been

7:27

at least taking the lead in

7:29

the talks in a way that

7:31

was not necessarily a parent. In.

7:33

Previous round. So Burns came to

7:36

Cairo with a proposal. In.

7:38

Hands. Ah, He presented

7:40

it to the Israelis have it

7:42

was presented through some an intermediary

7:44

to Hamas and it that's where

7:46

things can have died of a

7:49

or at least appear to have

7:51

died. I guess they're still. Some

7:54

consideration, Hamas issued a statement. On.

7:56

Tuesday. That said, you know if it wasn't

7:58

happy with the purple. Oh but it

8:01

was considering it and would prepare response. I'm

8:03

sure the Israelis will not be happy with

8:05

response in the around around. will go by.

8:08

The. Hold up here. I'm.

8:11

This. This seems to be. A.

8:13

Couple of hold us one still

8:15

is the duration of the ceasefire

8:18

Hamas wants. Six. Weeks with

8:20

a pathway to have a full cease

8:22

fire. The Israelis one six weeks and

8:24

we're done. And or back

8:26

to back fighting. But the other problem,

8:28

which may be more intractable at this

8:31

point, is the issue of hostages. Or.

8:33

The Israeli government is demanding and

8:36

and what's in this proposal from

8:38

from Burns in the Us Either

8:40

ministration, Is. That Hamas will

8:42

release forty living. Israelis.

8:44

Were being held hostage in

8:47

Gaza. The problem is

8:49

Hamas now at yates been suspected for

8:51

sometimes this was the case. The been

8:53

hints at it for some time but

8:56

they've now openly admitted that they don't

8:58

have. Forty. Living hostages

9:00

anymore or who fall into the

9:02

category envisioned or the categories I

9:05

should say envisioned by the ceasefire

9:07

proposal which in his women. Are

9:10

essentially women, an elderly it

9:12

and or infirm man? So

9:15

to get to forty hostages' they

9:17

would maybe have to dip into

9:20

a the sort of the mail

9:22

Israeli soldier category, which they've been

9:24

unwilling to do. they they. Wanted.

9:27

To extract additional

9:30

concessions. From the

9:32

Israelis in return for that category

9:35

of of hostage. So that's a

9:37

big sticking point. It's.

9:39

He raises a lot of concerns, not

9:41

just for the ceasefire. Toxic mean if

9:43

this is is that many hostages had

9:45

died, they can get to forty in

9:47

this category. The slate out in the.

9:50

Repos? Well, that that's kind of frightening

9:52

in terms of just how many hostages

9:54

have actually died, and we don't have

9:57

great insight into that. Obviously, because nobody

9:59

can. Nobody's in Gaza kind

10:01

of keeping track of these people except

10:03

for Hamas which isn't really talking so

10:06

that's. Very. Troubling and day as

10:08

I said, maybe that's the thing that

10:10

that prevents a seaside from for being

10:12

great. There's still a lot of pressure

10:14

here to try and get a deal

10:16

done. I think the Us in particular

10:18

is applying. Pressure. Because it

10:21

views a cease fire as the

10:23

only way. To. Forestall this

10:25

Iranian attack them a becoming the

10:27

Iranians have allegedly a through back

10:29

channels communicate the sense that if

10:32

if a ceasefire was agreed. They

10:35

would temper or maybe even hold off

10:37

altogether. In retaliation so they that

10:39

still lot of pressure try get a deal done.

10:41

I just don't know if it's feasible. it's. Very

10:44

very grim stuff. Derek, let's talk

10:47

about the idea for withdraw. Yes,

10:50

On Sunday the idea withdrew his forces

10:52

some communist which leaves it with only

10:54

one unit I've seen have described as

10:56

a brigade or a division. I'm not

10:58

sure which. Are a in

11:01

in the territory in Gaza at

11:03

all? It's it's occupying this. Nets

11:06

I mean corridor that the

11:08

idea has created to bisect.

11:10

Gaza. Into northern and southern parts either

11:12

would? There was some flurry of interest

11:14

in this earlier in the week of

11:16

the old? Maybe this means you know

11:19

the conflict is shifting, that the Israelis?

11:21

are you not gonna gonna. Reduce.

11:24

The intensity of their operations. I guess with

11:26

the. Consequence. Sort

11:29

of from. Reduction. In casualties

11:31

that that might have ensued again

11:33

as a result of. That.

11:35

Of U C K incident as a

11:37

result of this regional tension as a

11:40

result of the the by demonstration at

11:42

least for a few days seeming to

11:44

to express. A lot of outrage

11:46

in in a very short period of time

11:49

and up at a higher level than its

11:51

previously done with respect to Israel. Again, I

11:53

think that's all performative, but you know, take

11:55

them for what it's worth of these all

11:57

these these things also to coincide it. The

12:01

Israelis have characterized the was role as

12:03

a of basically have a chance to.

12:06

Give those soldiers the arrest or

12:08

to reset their equipment, etc. before

12:11

they headed to Rafa. They still

12:13

insisting that they're planning have a

12:15

full scale. Round. Assault in Rasa

12:17

You a Benjamin Netanyahu even said that.

12:20

Ah, he's got a d t that that

12:22

the idea of has given him a date

12:24

for that attack. He obviously didn't say. Out

12:26

what that date was I they may

12:29

still be. A may still be

12:31

a ways off. of The Israelis continue to

12:33

insist that they're going to try to evacuate

12:35

civilians. Out of rafa before they

12:37

go in which would take weeks and they

12:39

haven't started. so. You know,

12:42

realistically, if they're gonna do that or even

12:44

make at what appears to the outside world

12:46

to be a good faith attempt at doing

12:48

it, That. They're going to need

12:51

some time for that before they have for

12:53

the ready to go in, so I really

12:55

don't know where that stands the. Withdrawal.

12:58

Did allow for. A

13:00

few things that allowed Palestinians who have

13:03

been displaced from Khan Yunis, To

13:05

refer to return. To. Find Eunice,

13:07

most of them. Maybe all of them for all

13:09

I know. Sounds that their

13:12

homes word? To had been completely

13:14

destroyed. Or by the idea to the couldn't

13:16

stay but you know they might have been able to

13:18

to. Take a few belongings or something

13:20

like that, so there was a of a bit of

13:22

a. A temporary relocation least several

13:24

to get blasted by. It's worth mentioning

13:27

also that these a humanitarian truck for

13:29

also a combined by crook that are

13:31

guided and delivered to the comparison six

13:34

and to the private sector here in

13:36

the southern part of the Gaza strip

13:38

but none of this a humanitarian convoys

13:41

had been given the access to reach

13:43

to the other part of Kansas tracks

13:45

The despite the Israeli military decision to

13:48

reopen again the air is a crossing

13:50

and to is to guarantee third the

13:52

flow for humanitarian. supplies to people

13:54

in the north the other concern

13:57

of course is for humanitarian aid

14:00

The Israelis have been citing higher

14:02

numbers of trucks coming into the

14:05

territory, I guess, again, in

14:07

response to the pressure that they

14:09

feel they've been under. There was a, they're

14:11

disputing this with the

14:13

United Nations, which has

14:16

noted this week that

14:18

the Israelis, when they talk about like 400 trucks came in

14:20

today or 450 trucks came in today,

14:22

the trucks are apparently half full

14:25

because the Israeli, the

14:27

IDF insists on that. So

14:30

what's actually getting to the UN, the

14:32

number of trucks, once they get into

14:34

Gaza, they're unpacked and then

14:36

loaded onto, you know, re-loaded, repacked

14:39

and sent onto UN warehouses

14:42

in Gaza. What's actually getting to those warehouses

14:44

is about half the number of trucks that

14:46

the Israelis say they are letting in. So

14:48

it's a bit of a sleight of hand

14:51

trick, I think. The Israelis say

14:53

they're letting 400 trucks in, that's probably

14:55

200 trucks worth of aid, you

14:58

know, which even 400 at this point would

15:00

not be adequate to try and send off

15:03

the famine that is taking place in Gaza.

15:05

Two hundred certainly is far below that. So

15:07

there's a dispute about just

15:09

how much aid is coming in and

15:12

whether this withdrawal is actually allowing for any

15:14

additional aid. The Israelis have promised to open

15:16

new checkpoints and do all these things to

15:18

try and enhance the humanitarian

15:20

access to Gaza. I think that has

15:22

yet to manifest in any real action.

15:25

Thanks, Derek. Could you

15:27

give us an update on what's going on in Myanmar

15:30

where rebels have seized a key border town? Yes.

15:33

All week it's been reported that

15:36

the rebel Karen

15:39

National Liberation Army alongside

15:42

people's defense force, militia fighters,

15:44

the people's defense force, the

15:46

Karen National Liberation Army is

15:48

a long-standing ethnic rebel group

15:50

that's been, you know, at war with the Myanmar

15:52

government for a long time. The

15:54

people's defense forces are these

15:56

local militias that cropped up all

15:59

over the country. after the coup that put the

16:01

military back in power a couple of years ago,

16:04

they are not at least nominally

16:07

connected through the opposition

16:09

national unity government, the government in

16:11

exile. But

16:14

they I think function largely autonomously

16:16

and they work often with these

16:18

ethnic rebel groups that have been

16:21

at this a longer period of time, have more capacity,

16:23

etc. So anyway,

16:25

the Karen National Liberation Army

16:27

and People's Defense Force militia

16:30

fighters have been assaulting the

16:32

town of Miyawadi, which is located along

16:35

the Myanmar Thailand border

16:39

is the largest commercial

16:41

crossing point along that border.

16:44

And it seems as of Thursday

16:46

that they have finally taken the

16:48

town. Now, they had been

16:51

reporting mass

16:54

surrenders by hundreds of Myanmar

16:57

soldiers, hundreds

16:59

more soldiers and others have

17:01

reportedly crossed the border into

17:03

Thailand. The Thai government has been setting up

17:06

or trying to set up some capacity for

17:08

dealing with these people as they flee the

17:10

fighting. The Hunta, the Myanmar

17:12

government, the military Hunta has said

17:14

it's sending aircraft to Thailand

17:16

to pick these people up and take them

17:18

back to Myanmar. But

17:21

for several days, there was still

17:23

resistance despite these mass surrenders and

17:26

evacuations. There had still been

17:28

some resistance by a small, relatively

17:31

small Myanmar military unit plus

17:33

the military was conducting airstrikes

17:35

and that sort of thing. So

17:37

that finally seems to have broken down on

17:41

Thursday with the military unit that was

17:43

still defending Miyawadi fleeing across the border

17:45

to Thailand and rebels apparently

17:47

getting into the town. As I said, this is

17:49

the largest commercial crossing on the Thailand border. It

17:52

is a huge loss for the

17:55

Hunta commercially and

17:57

just in terms of this kind of never ending.

18:00

seeming parade of losses that they

18:02

have now suffered at the hands of

18:04

the rebels, which have been largely

18:06

focused on the Chinese and

18:08

Thai borders. So that's, again,

18:11

cutting revenue off from

18:13

the junta, which will only

18:16

increase its difficulties in terms of fielding an

18:19

army and trying to defend

18:21

itself or to take back territory. American

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to The Nation. Thank you for

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listening. And now back to the show. Let's

19:00

talk about Sudan, where the Iranian drones

19:02

have shifted what's going on on the

19:05

battlefield. Yeah, there was

19:07

a story in Reuters this week about the

19:11

apparent influx of Iranian made

19:14

drones that the Sudanese military

19:16

has acquired. I

19:19

think we talked a couple of weeks ago about the

19:21

fact that the Sudanese military

19:23

had made some rare

19:26

gains at the expense of the Rapid

19:28

Support Forces Group. The RSF has been,

19:30

for most of their conflict, which

19:32

is it, you know, I reached a full

19:34

year at this point, has

19:37

been driving the conflict.

19:39

Its fighters are more

19:41

seasoned, typically, than Sudanese

19:43

military personnel. And

19:45

it's been able to make up for deficiencies

19:47

in things like air power and artillery power

19:50

with its own drones that are

19:53

allegedly probably being provided by the

19:55

UAE. What's happened

19:57

in the last months?

20:00

give or take, I guess, is that the military has

20:02

made some significant

20:04

gains, particularly in the capital region,

20:06

in the city of Onderman, which

20:08

is the sister city of the

20:10

capital, Khartoum. And that's

20:12

apparently, according to this Reuters piece, at

20:15

least in large part because of these

20:17

Iranian drones. They've been using them mostly,

20:19

I think, for reconnaissance. So they've been

20:22

able to get more accurate

20:24

information to target their

20:26

artillery at RSF fighters,

20:28

and that seems to be making

20:31

a fairly significant difference. I think,

20:33

unfortunately, for the

20:35

Sudanese people who really could just

20:38

do with this war ending full

20:40

stop like yesterday, I suspect

20:43

that this revelation

20:47

that the Iranians are building a

20:49

relationship with the Sudanese military that

20:51

could potentially translate into an Iranian influence

20:55

in Sudan after the war, that's only

20:57

going to make the

20:59

UAE panic and

21:02

probably increase its

21:04

support for the RSF. And all this outside

21:06

support at this point just does is extends

21:08

the war. It extends the capacity of these

21:10

two groups to keep fighting each other, and

21:13

that's really the last thing that the

21:15

civilians need there. Let's

21:18

turn to Ukraine, and let's start

21:20

with this brutal attack on a

21:22

major power plant, it seems like

21:24

Russia has struck within Ukraine. Yeah,

21:27

so an overnight Russian drone slash

21:29

missile strike has destroyed the Tripilska

21:32

plant, which is the largest power

21:34

plant in the Kiev region and

21:38

surrounding regions. As far

21:40

as I know, it's just completely shattered the facility.

21:44

That power plant supplies power

21:46

to millions of people who

21:48

are potentially at risk of losing

21:50

power. Apparently, the

21:52

Ukrainians have been able to

21:54

take some steps to

21:57

compensate right now because

22:00

We're not yet in the sort of

22:04

summer months where everybody's got their air conditioning

22:06

on and the demand is at

22:08

its highest. So they've been able

22:10

to compensate somewhat and keep people from entirely

22:12

losing power, although there have been other strikes

22:15

against energy infrastructure in other parts of

22:17

Ukraine that have left people without

22:20

electricity. This seems like

22:22

just a return to what the Russians

22:25

were doing last year, sort of

22:28

over the summer and leading into winter that there

22:30

were a lot of these

22:32

heavy bombardments of infrastructure,

22:35

power and heat

22:38

facilities in an effort to

22:40

sort of leave civilians in

22:43

the dark, leave kind of undercut

22:45

capacity for heating leading

22:48

up, leading into the winter. And

22:51

also the size of these barrages suggest

22:54

that they are an attempt

22:56

to test, let's say, or deplete

22:59

Ukraine's air defense systems. So you just throw up

23:01

a lot of stuff and force

23:03

the Ukrainians to shoot it down with anti-aircraft

23:06

interceptor ammunition that they are running

23:08

out of because support

23:11

from the US and the West

23:13

is not coming in the

23:15

way that it once was. Speaking

23:17

of that, I think let's turn to

23:19

an issue that was sadly

23:22

predictable from the beginning, which

23:24

is that the Ukraine parliament has passed a

23:26

new conscription law. Yes.

23:30

The law is, it

23:33

was just passed on Thursday. I'm still sort

23:35

of reading about it. It

23:38

gives the military greater ability

23:41

to identify, register

23:43

and identify potentially fighting-age

23:46

men. It requires all

23:48

men from 18 to

23:50

60 to carry, to register

23:53

with the military and carry documents

23:55

showing apparently that they have registered

23:57

so that they can be checked by. Ukrainian

24:00

authorities at will,

24:04

they will use this or they may use

24:06

this I guess information and you know it

24:08

seems obvious to identify

24:12

military eligible men and that's

24:16

anybody from 25

24:18

and up that the Ukrainians

24:20

have cut have just recently actually

24:23

reduced the minimum age for service

24:25

from 27 to 25 so

24:27

they will use these documents

24:29

to sort of identify anybody who is

24:32

maybe trying to dodge the draft I

24:34

guess or get out of military service.

24:37

Obviously the Ukrainians are

24:40

struggling to keep up with the Russians in

24:42

terms of manpower, they're going to continue indefinitely

24:44

to struggle to keep up with the Russians

24:47

in terms of manpower and

24:49

this is another way to

24:52

try and enforce conscription

24:54

rules but

24:56

there is sadly a real

24:59

risk that eventually an entire

25:01

generation of Ukrainian men is going to

25:04

be thrown into this war and I

25:06

suspect that reducing the conscription age to 25 is

25:09

only the first step of what

25:11

will be more adjustments to that age

25:13

to come and you're just going to see more

25:15

and more people thrown into this war with you

25:19

know not suggesting there's

25:21

a better way I don't know what I would

25:23

do in this situation but there just doesn't

25:25

seem to be much to look

25:28

for here on the horizon in terms

25:30

of an end to this. Pretty

25:33

sad and tragic news as usual Derek. Why

25:36

don't we talk about Ecuador and actually so

25:39

there's been this raid on the Mexican

25:41

embassy in Quito. Derek,

25:43

do you think that a norm has

25:45

actually changed here or is these just

25:47

two semi-random attacks soon

25:49

after one another? Yeah,

25:52

I mean they're different enough that

25:54

I don't know that you can

25:56

connect the two and I know you're talking about

25:58

the Damascus. attack by

26:01

the Israelis. So there's what

26:04

the Ecuadorian government did on Friday, let's

26:08

say that first, they raided the

26:11

Mexican Embassy in Quito to

26:13

extract former Ecuadorian Vice

26:15

President Jorge Glás who was facing

26:19

corruption charges, he claims they're politically

26:22

motivated, he was seeking asylum, the Mexican

26:24

government earlier in the day on Friday

26:26

had granted his request for asylum and

26:28

then the Ecuadorians went in and

26:31

pulled him out. What's different

26:33

is that the big kind

26:35

of inviolable principle in international

26:37

law with respect to diplomatic

26:39

facilities has to do

26:42

with host country's responsibility to protect

26:45

the sanctity of an

26:47

embassy or a consulate. So

26:49

what the Israelis did when they

26:51

attacked this apparent Iranian consular building

26:53

in Damascus didn't actually

26:55

rise to that level, it didn't rise

26:57

to that level of significance because it

26:59

was a third party, it was an

27:02

attack on a third party and in a third state

27:04

whatever diplomatic facility which

27:06

is not great and those facilities

27:08

still have the same protections

27:10

under international law that any quote-unquote

27:12

civilian facility is supposed to have

27:15

but it's not the same as

27:18

going into an embassy in

27:20

your own country and conducting

27:23

a raid like this which is really just

27:25

like you've thrown the rule book out the

27:27

window. So I don't know

27:30

that one necessarily has anything

27:32

to do with the other but yes

27:34

I mean you could certainly say there

27:37

is a pattern here of disrespecting

27:39

the sort

27:42

of protections or sanctity of

27:44

diplomatic facilities. If I

27:46

stand for anything Derek it's the sanctity of

27:48

diplomatic facilities. I think we all should do

27:50

that and to say you

27:52

know there's been a huge outcry now against

27:57

Ecuador for having done this the Mexican

27:59

government cut off. relations. I

28:01

think the Organization of American States just

28:03

voted to condemn the raid.

28:06

The United States even, which has no real

28:08

truck with the Mexican government, but does

28:10

like Daniel Noboa, the president of Ecuador, because

28:12

he's a good businessman,

28:14

banana kingpin, apparently, pro-business

28:19

guy, so we like him. But

28:21

nevertheless, the United States criticized

28:23

the raid, suggested that it did,

28:25

in fact, breach the 1961

28:28

Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which

28:30

is supposed to govern these things

28:32

and obliges host countries to respect

28:34

the integrity of embassies. So

28:36

there's been a lot of outcry. On

28:39

Sunday, Mexican diplomats returning back home

28:42

to an outpour of support. As

28:44

Mexican officials say, their embassy

28:46

in Ecuador will remain closed

28:48

indefinitely. Mexico is now even

28:50

asking the United Nations effectively

28:53

to kick Ecuador out. I

28:55

don't think that's going to

28:57

happen, but that's how far things have gotten. We've

29:02

even seen a number of Latin American countries, even

29:04

countries that you would normally expect

29:07

to line up on Ecuador's

29:09

side here. Mexico is

29:11

this repository of dirty

29:13

leftism, and Ecuador is a repository

29:16

of good, solid pro-business conservatism.

29:19

Even the pro-business conservative governments

29:21

in Latin America seem to be kind

29:23

of shying away from this and criticizing

29:26

the Ecuadorian government for what it's done. Thanks,

29:29

Derek. Let's talk about the new Cold

29:31

War, because Joe Biden

29:33

has just had a meeting with

29:35

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, as

29:37

well as the president of

29:39

the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos. Is Junior actually

29:41

part of his name, or we just

29:44

call him that? No, he's

29:46

Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. Okay, yes, Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.

29:48

So what's wrong there? I just kind of

29:50

dropped the long, long thing, which I have

29:52

to give him credit for, because that was

29:54

dumb. Anyway,

29:57

yeah, so Biden brought...

30:00

Tishida to the White House on Wednesday for

30:02

a formal state visit. They

30:04

had discussions all day

30:07

on expanding, strengthening

30:09

U.S.-Japanese relations, particularly on

30:12

the military front. There

30:14

was a discussion about forming

30:17

some kind of joint

30:20

regional air defense system with

30:22

Japan, the U.S., and Australia

30:25

being involved. There

30:27

was talk of upgrading the

30:29

U.S.-Japanese military alliance

30:31

to put it, let's say, on

30:34

par with the U.S.-South Korean command.

30:36

Part of this is sort of

30:39

meant to, from Kishida's perspectives, were

30:41

meant to kind of ratify his

30:44

efforts to upgrade the Japanese self-defense

30:46

forces, you can put that in

30:48

quotes, into something more resembling

30:50

a traditional military, which of course after

30:52

World War II, we decided Japan shouldn't

30:54

really have one of those, but I

30:56

guess we're going back on that now.

31:00

They did have this discussion. There

31:02

were reports a few days

31:04

ago, the Financial Times I think was the first to

31:06

report this, that they were

31:08

going to discuss, and I don't know if they

31:10

did, I don't actually know if this was part

31:12

of the discussion, but the Financial

31:15

Times reported that they were going to

31:17

discuss expanding AUKUS, which,

31:20

Danny, I know is one of your favorite

31:22

alliances, the U.S., U.K., Australia. That's

31:24

not my favorite. Not my favorite, but yeah. Well,

31:26

okay. I mean, that was

31:29

negotiated a while ago. It's

31:31

organized around the idea of providing

31:33

nuclear-powered submarines, attack submarines,

31:35

to Australia, but there

31:38

are other aspects of it. There's a whole

31:40

second chapter of AUKUS

31:42

that involves collaboration on

31:45

other military technologies that

31:48

supposedly, again, according to the Financial

31:50

Times, the U.S., U.K., and

31:52

Australia want to open up to

31:54

other partners. So the submarine part would just be

31:57

the three of them, but This other

31:59

aspect. the act of the deal they they

32:01

would open up to potential other partners. Japan

32:03

being oh. You. Know sort of

32:06

the top of the list I guess

32:08

to get into this thing on Thursday

32:10

or the to a Kitchen and Biden

32:12

and got together again and this time

32:14

they were joined by. The. President's

32:16

Philippines: Ferdinand Marcos Junior: This is

32:18

the first time apparently that. Those.

32:21

Three countries have all got together leaders

32:23

of those recoveries while gun together the

32:25

same time for a joint summit. Ah,

32:27

I have not yet seen any sort

32:29

of read out as we're recording this

32:31

about what was discussed, but I'm sure.

32:33

I'm. Sure of two things. I'm sure that

32:35

one. They're. Going to mostly talk about

32:37

China and to they will insist after they're done

32:40

that they didn't talk about china. That's the way

32:42

this extended. Mode.

32:44

Derek thank you and were coming to the

32:46

end of our show and I'm sure you'll

32:48

leave us on a happy note. You know

32:50

things he get better with. We just work

32:52

together So why did you tell us about

32:54

what's going on with the climate? Yes,

32:58

We did it again. I mean, we

33:00

we did again. I don't think I

33:02

wasn't sure we could to keep it

33:04

going, but according to the European Union's

33:06

Copernicus Climate Change service, March last month

33:09

was the hottest March ever Recorded was

33:11

a tenth of a degree higher than

33:13

the previous record, which was set in

33:15

March twenty sixteen. And this means for

33:18

ten months in a row now we

33:20

have had the hottest. Whatever month

33:22

that is a ever recorded so

33:24

hot as Marx Harvest February Hottest

33:27

January. December, etc. going all the

33:29

way back. Of they also.

33:31

Copernicus also found that the twelve

33:33

month period from April Twenty Twenty

33:35

Three A through March of this

33:37

year set a new twelve months

33:39

heat record. That of

33:42

topples the previous record which had been

33:44

set. In March when they decided

33:46

that he twelve month period from a.

33:49

March last year or two. February this

33:51

year was the hottest twelve month period

33:54

on record. It will probably be broken

33:56

next month once we have April's the

33:58

average temperature data all now. Well, there

34:01

is some reason to think this streak may

34:03

be breaking soon because El Nino, the El

34:05

Nino that's been partly driving

34:07

this along with

34:10

obviously the effects of

34:12

man-made climate change, is

34:15

apparently going to fade away and

34:17

may turn into a La Nina,

34:19

which is the cooling effect later

34:22

this year. So we may see

34:24

a break in these hottest month ever records.

34:26

But I'm proud of us. We've got 10

34:28

months in a row. I'm hoping we can

34:30

make it to a full year. You

34:33

know, one of the good things is when the earth

34:35

cooks, people don't have to pay back their student loans.

34:37

So you got to look on the bright side. That's

34:39

what I always say. Yeah, I just want to say,

34:42

yeah, you know, throw your mortgage away. Yeah, who cares?

34:45

It's all going to break down. So

34:47

why not? Well, on that happy note,

34:49

see you all soon.