0:00

This is the BBC. This

0:30

is the BBC. This

1:00

is the BBC. This

1:30

is the BBC. It's

2:00

just a very bad night. It's just

2:02

a very bad night. We need to be

2:05

in here. We need to be in here.

2:08

We need to be in here. We need to

2:10

be in here. We need to be in here. We

2:14

need to be in here. Hi,

2:20

it's Sarah. I'm coming to

2:23

you from a hotel room in

2:25

Nashua, New Hampshire. It's Justin in

2:27

the worldwide headquarters of Americaast in

2:29

London, England. And it's Anthony in

2:31

downtown Manchester, New Hampshire. So,

2:33

as we said at the beginning, we're all here because

2:35

the New Hampshire primary, the

2:38

first in the nation, has been happening,

2:40

and we've got most of the results in

2:42

so far, which currently looks

2:44

like over 50% of the vote has

2:46

gone to Donald Trump. But remember, the

2:49

competition has been winnowed down to just one.

2:51

This is now a two-person race, so taking

2:54

50% of the vote isn't the

2:56

huge achievement that it was in Iowa. It

2:58

would appear that Nikki Haley

3:00

is around about 10, maybe 12 points behind

3:03

him, so

3:05

double-digit behind him, but nonetheless, it's a lot

3:07

closer than she came in Iowa, and it's

3:10

a lot closer than some of the polls

3:12

were predicting she might. Then again, this is

3:14

a state where Nikki Haley invested a ton

3:16

of resources. She spent tens of millions of

3:18

dollars here. Unlike Iowa, she had

3:20

the endorsement of the popular Republican governor

3:22

here in New Hampshire. She'd spent

3:24

a considerable amount of time. This was

3:27

her best punch at Donald Trump. While she

3:29

outperformed the polls that suggested Donald Trump might

3:31

win by as much as 20%, she

3:34

still didn't claw her way all the way back to

3:36

the top, and a win for

3:38

Donald Trump is a win, and it does move

3:40

him one step closer to the nomination. The problem

3:42

for Nikki Haley, surely, is that she has trouble

3:44

with a group of voters known as Republicans, and

3:47

this is essentially the Republican primary. It is

3:50

the Republican primary, and albeit in New Hampshire,

3:52

a lot of independents vote and are allowed

3:54

to vote, and it's perfectly acceptable that they

3:56

do, even in the

3:58

weird... circumstances of New

4:01

Hampshire, where it is an electorate that

4:03

is much more mixed, that in most

4:05

of the other Republican primaries, in fact

4:07

probably all of them, she

4:09

hasn't managed to win. And in those

4:11

circumstances, I think it is legitimate to

4:14

say to her, what

4:16

is your pathway? What are you telling us? Exactly.

4:18

If she can't win here, where can she

4:20

win? And that is a question that her

4:22

campaign will not only be asking themselves, it

4:25

is crucially a question that her donors will

4:27

be asking. She has spent millions of dollars

4:29

already in Iowa and in New Hampshire, that

4:31

is where she has spent most of her

4:33

time and most of her money, and obviously

4:35

she has been defeated in both states. Who

4:38

is going to be writing large checks for

4:40

her now to be paying for the advertising

4:42

and the campaigning in the states yet to

4:44

come, if it doesn't

4:46

look like she can actually defeat Donald Trump in any

4:48

single one of them? And

4:51

remember, the next state to vote in

4:53

a month's time is South Carolina. South

4:56

Carolina voters don't want

4:58

a coronation. They want an election.

5:07

And we're going to give them one. Her

5:10

home state, the state where she was a

5:12

two-term governor, you might think that would give

5:14

her a great advantage. Well, that is not

5:16

what the polls suggest. The conservative Republicans there

5:18

really do seem to be backing Donald Trump,

5:21

as are many of the South

5:23

Carolina Republican politicians. So

5:26

if Nikki Haley did really badly there in

5:28

her own state, that would be so deeply

5:30

humiliating, I think, that it could really poison

5:32

her political prospects for the future. So I

5:34

think that really does need to give her

5:36

pause as to whether she's going to carry

5:38

on and fight into that state. So

5:41

you have to wonder what is making her decide

5:43

to stay in if she does, and she could

5:45

change her mind just like Ron DeSantis did last

5:47

week. But maybe it's the fact that she is

5:49

the last person standing, that she's the last hope

5:51

for people who don't want Donald Trump to be

5:53

the nominee, and they might be

5:55

willing to spend a little more just

5:57

to keep the glimmer of possibility. that

6:00

Donald Trump might not get the nomination

6:02

or that Donald Trump might get struck

6:04

by a bolt of lightning or collapse

6:06

in a heap or some new revelation

6:09

in his criminal trials could put voters

6:11

over the edge and that keeps her

6:13

turning along as essentially, you know, the

6:15

the alternate to the Republican

6:17

nomination who could step in in case

6:19

the winner doesn't isn't able to fulfill

6:22

their duties like the winner of a

6:24

beauty pageant. I'm fascinated by this argument,

6:26

Anthony, Justin, if we play it out,

6:29

in order for Nikki Haley to remain

6:31

in this contest, just in case something

6:34

happens that means Donald Trump is no

6:36

longer able to run and the court

6:38

cases are the obvious example. That's

6:40

going to be really late this year. We know

6:43

these court cases are likely to be delayed because

6:45

of all the appeals that are going to the

6:47

Supreme Court. So we could be talking about May,

6:50

June, July, maybe even later before this

6:52

mysterious incident will occur that will stop

6:54

Donald Trump from running. Nikki Haley can't

6:56

really think she's going to stay in

6:58

the race for that long. I mean,

7:01

she can't stay in it past Super Tuesday

7:03

at the beginning of March at this rate,

7:05

I wouldn't think. She also needs to notice

7:07

something, doesn't she, which Donald Trump has pointed

7:09

out already and a lot of other people

7:11

are pointing out who are not so party

7:13

prix as it were in these matters, which

7:15

is that it is unique in modern times

7:17

in when an incumbent isn't

7:19

running for the Republican candidate to win

7:21

in Iowa and New Hampshire. I mean,

7:23

it is. Let's not take it away

7:25

from him. It is an extraordinary achievement

7:28

and particularly for a guy who a

7:30

year or so ago was down,

7:33

if not out. It is a

7:35

historic achievement. Democrats have done it

7:37

before, but a Republican has never

7:39

managed to do that. Who's not

7:41

an incumbent. Of course, Donald Trump

7:43

isn't your ordinary non incumbent politician

7:45

running for president. He is a

7:47

former president and that gives them

7:49

a certain leg up, but it

7:51

is still it has to be

7:53

acknowledged that Donald Trump. This

7:55

victory is making history and it's helping to secure

7:58

the nomination for Trump going for the President. forward.

8:01

And it's worth saying that the Biden campaign,

8:03

just as they were in Iowa, very quick

8:06

to salute Donald Trump, that's possibly

8:08

the wrong word, but to make it very plain

8:10

to their supporters and indeed to try to make

8:12

it plain to the nation more

8:14

widely. Hello folks, it's time to

8:17

focus. Donald Trump is

8:19

the presumptive nominee, he is the person

8:21

we're going to be up against. And

8:24

for two reasons. Number one, they think

8:26

Trump is beatable and they've thought that

8:28

all along. But number

8:30

two, it's the first time since

8:33

the 19th century that you've had

8:35

a president facing

8:38

in a presidential race, if it is to

8:40

be Trump, and it looks as if it

8:42

is, that you've had a president facing in

8:44

a presidential race, a former president

8:47

who he has beaten, if I

8:49

can put it that way. So you've got, on

8:52

the Democrat side, a zest

8:54

for this battle. So the White

8:56

House says, in spite of

8:59

being behind in quite a few of the

9:01

key states, according to the opinion polls, but

9:03

there's a long way to go. But also

9:05

this kind of sense that actually Donald Trump

9:07

is not going to be able to avoid

9:10

running on his record as

9:12

well. And once Americans start to focus on

9:14

that, and once the conversation goes to that,

9:16

then it really is a much more open

9:18

race. Yeah. And Donald Trump clearly

9:20

wants to take the fight to Joe Biden, but

9:22

let's talk for a moment about Donald

9:25

Trump's victory speech tonight. She didn't

9:27

win. She lost. And, you

9:30

know, last week we had a little bit

9:33

of a problem. And if you remember, Ron

9:35

was very upset because she ran up and

9:37

she pretended she won

9:39

Iowa. And

9:42

I looked around, I said, didn't she come in third? Yeah,

9:44

she came in third. And

9:46

then I looked at the polls. She was talking about most

9:49

winnability, who's going to win. And I had one put up.

9:51

I don't know if you see it, but I have one

9:53

put up. We've won

9:55

almost every single poll in the

9:57

last three months against Crooked Joe

9:59

Biden. W. Paul and she doesn't

10:01

win those for us. It was very

10:04

different from the sharp, focused, magnanimous speech

10:06

he gave in Iowa last Monday. He

10:08

got up on the stage and he

10:11

immediately lashed out against Nikki Haley. You

10:13

could tell he was just seething at

10:15

the fact that Nikki Haley wants to

10:18

stay in this race,

10:20

that she wasn't willing to concede. He complained

10:22

about the fact that she gave a victory

10:24

speech even though she didn't win, which is

10:27

kind of rich coming from Donald Trump. But

10:29

still, I was struck

10:31

by the difference in tone and how kind

10:33

of off message Donald Trump was tonight. What

10:36

did you all think? I thought it was

10:38

bitter and mean-spirited, to be perfectly honest, when

10:40

he should be celebrating a victory. He

10:42

was surrounded by other candidates who've pulled

10:45

out of the race and endorsed them.

10:47

Right on the stage there, he had

10:49

the North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, he

10:51

had the South Carolina Senator Tim Scott,

10:53

he had Vivek Ramashwami, whom he even

10:56

let speak, gave him the microphone for

10:58

a few minutes. So he's got all

11:01

of these defeated rivals at

11:03

his feet, so to speak,

11:06

and he was just mean

11:09

towards Nikki Haley. I mean, okay, they're rivals, but

11:11

you don't have to be nasty about it when

11:13

you're ahead. I wonder if he

11:15

was a bit prickled by basically being called

11:17

senile by Nikki Haley, which he kind of

11:20

has been in a much more pointed way

11:22

in recent times. So he

11:24

confused or appeared to confuse

11:26

Nancy Pelosi, the former Democratic

11:28

Speaker of the House, with

11:30

Nikki Haley in a speech

11:33

recently. And he referred again

11:35

and again to Nikki

11:37

Haley when it seemed as if he

11:39

meant Nancy Pelosi. And she drew attention

11:41

to that, and indeed the Biden White

11:43

House used it in an advertisement. I

11:45

just wonder whether part

11:48

of the reason why that speech

11:50

was so mean, Sarah, is that

11:52

he does feel personally quite vulnerable

11:54

when it comes to the accusations

11:56

of senility, which of course he

11:58

and other Republicans. Americans have been levelling

12:01

at Joe Biden. Yes, it would

12:03

be a weak point for him given how much he

12:05

uses that as a weapon against Joe Biden, who is

12:07

after all only four years older than him. And it's

12:09

not the only slip that he's made. I mean, if

12:11

you wanted to put together a list

12:13

of speeches and moments in which Donald Trump

12:16

had confused Joe Biden with Barack Obama, I

12:18

think it's a sign, though, that this is

12:20

going to get nasty. I mean, if he

12:22

is roiled by that, then he will have

12:25

Barb's going straight back at Nikki Haley. Up

12:27

until now, you know, it was mostly Rhonda

12:29

Santis that he was attacking, Rhonda Sanctimonius,

12:31

but he says he's retired that nickname now

12:33

that Rhonda Santis has pulled

12:35

out. He hasn't given both barrels to

12:37

Nikki Haley yet. He calls her bird

12:40

brain. And he has

12:42

on social media been calling her all

12:44

sorts of different names, different versions of

12:46

her first names. He calls her Nimrada

12:48

and Nimbra, all of which

12:50

are deliberate misspellings of her given first

12:52

name, even though she's always gone by

12:55

her middle name, Nikki. I

12:57

think you're going to see a lot more of

12:59

that stuff coming out of the Trump camp if

13:01

Nikki Haley is determined to carry on. Can I

13:03

just say here in the worldwide headquarters, Marianna Spring

13:06

has failed to turn up, which frankly,

13:08

we ought to forgive her because it is the middle

13:10

of the night here. The middle of the night is

13:12

my day job. I'm broadcasting a few hours time in

13:14

Britain. But Marianna, who works 24 seven, is not working

13:16

24 seven in the office today. We're

13:20

going to forgive her that she is, though, just back

13:22

from the US. But she has sent us her reaction

13:24

because she does work 24 seven. So

13:26

she can resist a little bit of

13:28

broadcasting. She has sent us her reaction

13:30

to what she was saying online, which,

13:32

of course, is increasingly crucial

13:34

to all of this in the build up to New

13:37

Hampshire. Nikki Haley is someone

13:39

who on TikTok in particular, and I've chatted about

13:41

this before, really has started to gain quite a

13:43

lot of traction and quite a lot of support

13:45

and positivity. But now, you know, she's very much

13:48

found herself the prime target for the pro-Trump supporters

13:50

on social media. And that is not an easy

13:52

thing to be. And I think it's really interesting

13:54

the way that this kind of seemingly organic content

13:56

is almost fun content. It's like being fans of

13:58

a pop star or. of a celebrity.

14:01

But instead, you know, they're fans of Donald Trump

14:03

and they go after people in the same way

14:05

that kind of Taylor Swift fans or One Direction

14:08

fans back in the day for any of you

14:10

listeners who are the same age as

14:12

me would kind of go after the

14:14

girlfriends or boyfriends of different pop stars.

14:16

It all feels quite a lot like

14:18

that. There's also been as ever in

14:20

the land of misinformation, some misinformation and

14:22

disinformation potentially. There have been various kind

14:24

of allegations being made about Trump's health,

14:27

people kind of analyzing photos of him

14:29

in the same way they do Biden.

14:31

And we were talking about this in the

14:33

Iowa episode, but it was interesting that quite

14:35

a lot of people have taken to starting

14:37

to dissect where he appeared, what he looks

14:39

like, the way he behaves to suggest he's

14:41

ill in some way, although, you know, we

14:43

don't currently have evidence to support that. Also,

14:46

when we did our America's predictions, our

14:48

time capsule for the election, I put

14:51

in my one or one of my

14:53

ones I put in was that I

14:55

thought that AI generated audio would be

14:57

the most effective way of deceiving people

14:59

around this election, more so than video,

15:01

because it's something I've investigated before over

15:03

here in the UK. And surprise, surprise,

15:05

our first example of it around this

15:07

election seems to have appeared our first convincing

15:10

example. There were some robo calls being

15:12

made to voters in New Hampshire in

15:14

relation to Joe Biden, suggesting that Joe Biden

15:16

was telling them not to go out and

15:18

get involved in kind of any democratic voting

15:20

process on Tuesday. And it sounded like Joe

15:22

Biden and it used lots of his kind

15:24

of phrases. And for that reason, some people

15:27

did genuinely seem a bit taken in by

15:29

it. But Joe Biden's campaign

15:31

and others linked to it have very quickly condemned

15:33

it said that this is really harmful that they didn't

15:35

generate this audio. They don't know who did. I

15:38

think this is an example of where it hasn't

15:40

caused loads of real world harm already had much

15:42

impact. But it shows us how easy and quickly

15:44

those tickets can be deployed. And that's certainly something

15:46

I'll be talking to you about America's over the

15:49

next few months. And that will be in that

15:51

panorama I was telling you about which you can

15:53

wait and hear more about in March. So I

15:55

think that's everything from me. Bye

15:57

guys. Well, that's really interesting, isn't it? And Tom.

16:00

Talking of robocalls, I had a few

16:02

fascinating conversations with voters here in New

16:04

Hampshire who said that they were absolutely

16:06

sick of getting them from Nikki Haley's

16:08

campaign. They were getting flyers through the

16:10

door, a different one every day for

16:12

a week, they said. I

16:14

had people showing me all the missed calls on their

16:17

phones from the numbers that were coming from the Haley

16:19

campaign. You know, often people think you need more money

16:21

and more exposure in a campaign in order to win

16:23

votes. She went a bit over the top in New

16:25

Hampshire, I think, because a lot of voters said it

16:28

really put them off. OK, let's turn to the future,

16:30

the immediate future. Are we

16:32

saying definitely at this stage, and it's 10

16:34

past four in the morning here in Britain,

16:36

and I'm a few minutes away from rushing

16:38

off to do my day job,

16:40

are we saying this is now the nomination

16:42

sewn up, essentially? Sarah, is

16:45

that where we are on Trump now?

16:47

I think so. I mean, in as much as

16:50

we've probably all thought from the very beginning that

16:52

he was going to win this nomination. I mean,

16:54

I think it's not as cut and dried tonight

16:56

as we maybe expected it to be, but it's

16:58

really hard to see how there's another outcome. Yeah,

17:00

remember that we were talking about how Nikki Haley

17:02

had to thread a needle to make this a

17:04

competitive race. And that course involved

17:06

a second place finish in Iowa, which

17:08

she didn't get, and a win in

17:11

New Hampshire. And she hasn't got that.

17:13

And then she'd be able to chug into her home state of South

17:15

Carolina with a head of steam. She's not

17:18

doing that. So I think

17:20

barring some sort of major act of

17:22

fate, this is going to be

17:24

Donald Trump's increasingly fast steamroll to

17:26

the nomination. You keep talking about these

17:29

major acts of fate, Anthony, and that is

17:31

why I'm sticking to my prediction. It won't be

17:33

Trump and it won't be Biden. And

17:35

I know, you know, the

17:37

seconds are ticking by. I hear

17:39

what you say or what you don't say, but what

17:42

you think. But yeah, lots

17:44

of acts of fate to come. I just

17:46

so many twists and turns. The age thing

17:48

for both of them hangs

17:50

over this, but also just the

17:53

weird kind of volatility of the

17:56

whole situation. Never mind the third

17:58

party candidates who. come to

18:01

play, etc., etc. It just feels that the

18:03

whole thing is very much up in the

18:05

air. And I do wonder, this is a

18:07

peculiar election in as much as we

18:09

seem to know early on who

18:12

the people are who are going to be

18:14

fighting it, but we have massive questions about

18:17

whether they can fight it. Justin, I believe

18:19

that there are people who get their news

18:21

about American politics, not first from America, but

18:23

sometimes from the Today programme on Radio 4.

18:25

If you're going to give them all of

18:28

that news, you're going to have to go,

18:30

aren't you? Yep. Meanwhile, it beckons and

18:32

I'm looking forward to it. But nice to talk to you, both

18:35

of you. Okay, moving right along.

18:37

Sarah, I hear that you might have

18:39

landed yet another interesting interview for us

18:41

tonight, earlier on Tuesday

18:43

or Wednesday morning for you folks

18:45

in London. You spoke with

18:48

Sean Spicer, who people may remember, is

18:50

the former White House press secretary, star

18:52

of Dancing with the Stars and now

18:54

host of the Sean Spicer show. Yes,

18:57

he's got his own podcast. Everybody has a podcast

18:59

these days, of course. And

19:01

he was really interesting, actually, giving us

19:03

an insight into what he thinks the

19:06

mood will be in the Trump camp tonight

19:09

as they are enjoying savouring

19:11

whatever they're doing, their victory, albeit

19:13

with with a degree of bitterness

19:15

towards their rival. But also he

19:17

was really interesting about what he

19:19

thinks the race is going to

19:21

look like going forward, and

19:23

how the matchup with Joe Biden is going to

19:25

go. Thank you so much

19:28

for joining us on America's Shell to give

19:30

us your insights into what might be happening

19:32

inside the Trump camp. How will they be

19:34

feeling tonight? I mean, this victory is not

19:36

exactly a surprise or a show. But but

19:38

what does it do winning yet another state,

19:41

do you think? Well, I

19:43

think it starts to coalesce the party,

19:45

the donors, the supporters, and even frankly,

19:47

the media, I was looking at some

19:49

of the DC political media before we

19:51

started. And there's a general

19:54

sense that people are starting to

19:56

say, okay, This is pretty

19:58

fun. Final: Nikki here. They may

20:00

choose to fight another day, but I

20:02

don't think anyone's really giving her any

20:05

chance tonight with that opportunity either. Really

20:07

shocked the system and the reason just

20:09

for people understand is that New Hampshire

20:11

really has a high prepared hi. I'm

20:14

percentage of independent voters of participate so

20:16

someone like Haley is getting much more

20:18

of her support from the dub then.

20:22

The. Less the more moderate weighing and

20:24

say be independent democratic supporters. this was

20:26

that the one place as she could

20:29

show that she could break out or

20:31

other much much more of. A

20:34

hard core conservative types going forward in

20:36

a lot of the contest. this was

20:38

where she had to make her stand

20:40

and I think it came up short

20:42

and given that how do you think

20:44

inside the Trump camp they will be

20:46

ceiling this evening can you can you

20:48

be celebrating and feeling victorious when you

20:50

win a contest that you are probably

20:52

always going to succeed? And we've never

20:54

had ah and election like this in

20:56

America. We basically have a de facto

20:58

nominee mean Trump is running for of

21:00

the nomination, He has an infrastructure, a

21:03

campaign, a data. Operations that is like

21:05

an incumbent and so that's very different.

21:07

It's not an equal playing field and

21:09

every time someone looks first the kissed

21:11

it is very difficult because. Even

21:13

in New Hampshire where there's been a

21:16

lot of comebacks, it's always been in

21:18

the case that a candidate you know

21:20

Hillary Clinton sheath with came out Iowa

21:22

but then slowly went from like seven

21:24

to five to three to one to

21:26

winning. Nikki Haley didn't have that momentum

21:28

Are the people that were dropping out

21:30

of the race. vagrant Swami Sen Tim

21:32

Scott or who had previously raunch did

21:34

Rhonda Census were all backing Trump. He

21:37

had the nom that the support going

21:39

into today on and I think that

21:41

matters. Love! This is the first time

21:43

by. The way that a candidate has

21:45

won both Iowa and New Hampshire since

21:47

Nineteen Seventy Six. So there's there's ways

21:50

that you can feel good about yourself

21:52

if you're the candidate in the team

21:54

on. But. i i

21:56

i i think you know there is a as an

21:58

element of you were supposed to But

22:00

they haven't let it down

22:02

yet, right? There's nothing where

22:04

someone is saying, well,

22:07

that was really close. They've continued

22:09

to meet the expectations bar

22:11

that was set. So as

22:13

you mentioned there, some of Donald Trump's

22:15

rivals who pulled out of the contest

22:17

earlier, Senator Tim Scott, Governor Doug Burgum,

22:19

Vivek Ramishwamy, they've been campaigning for him

22:21

here in New Hampshire and actually appearing

22:23

on stage with him this evening as

22:25

well. Why does

22:27

it matter to him, do you think, to have

22:29

these people around him and

22:32

giving him their

22:34

endorsement, almost pledging their fealty to

22:36

him? It looks as though he

22:38

really cares about that. Well,

22:40

I would say that it's a two-way street, right?

22:42

They're up there because they want to show that

22:45

they support him as well. There's nothing –

22:47

I mean, Vivek and I'm watching Tim Scott

22:50

stand right behind him. That's not required

22:52

by any – they endorsed him. But

22:56

I think they want to show their support of

22:58

him. And look, as someone – I've spent my

23:00

whole life in the campaign world.

23:02

I did my first campaign 30 years ago.

23:05

You want to show strength as

23:08

the campaign evolves. And so for him to

23:11

show the electorate, it's not

23:13

just that I'm beating her. I've

23:15

got these people who ran against me, standing

23:17

behind me, saying that I'm the right guy

23:19

going forward, that I'm going to win, that

23:22

people who supported them should support me now. It

23:25

sends a very strong signal that people who

23:27

wanted to take him on want to stand

23:29

behind him now and support him going forward.

23:31

And there's a lot of speculation about Nikki

23:33

Haley's future now, whether she will carry on in

23:35

this race, whether she'll make it all the way to

23:37

South Carolina in a few weeks' time. What

23:39

do you think Donald Trump wants? Would

23:42

he like to carry on with this

23:44

contest because then he can continue to

23:46

have victories, continue to have campaign rallies

23:48

and stay in the spotlight? Or

23:51

would he like to have all of this wrapped up so that he can actually

23:53

direct all his fire at President Biden rather

23:55

than having to deal with Republican rivals? Well,

23:58

look, South Carolina is 31. days

24:00

away, it's February 24th. You've

24:02

got a ways to go. And I think anybody

24:04

who's running any kind of race or

24:06

playing a game or anything wants it over, right?

24:09

You want to be declared the winner and the

24:11

victor sooner rather than later. As

24:14

far as the Donald Trump that I know, he

24:16

wants this thing done. He wants it over. He

24:18

wants to be declared the winner as soon as

24:20

possible. And then he wants to focus on Joe

24:22

Biden. So he'll just, I mean, he'll still have

24:24

rallies. He'll still have all those events. They'll just

24:26

be focused on Joe Biden. Now, there will be

24:29

people around the world watching what's happening in

24:31

New Hampshire and saying to themselves, how can

24:33

it be that so many people are lining

24:35

up to vote for a man who

24:37

is facing 91 felony charges,

24:39

as he keeps saying himself at campaign rallies,

24:41

he's got more indictments against them than Al

24:44

Capone had. And people wonder

24:46

how despite these charges, he's got this

24:48

level of electoral support. But I

24:50

think it's not despite them really, it's almost

24:52

because of all of these court cases and

24:55

charges that he's got such a grandswell of

24:57

support. You're absolutely right, Sarah.

24:59

There's two things. Number one,

25:01

this is the first time in

25:05

our history where you're able to make a

25:07

huge contrast. So Donald Trump can look at

25:10

a voter and say

25:12

domestically, the border was secure. We were

25:14

energy independent, interest rates were lower, inflation

25:17

was lower, et cetera, et cetera, et

25:19

cetera. All of those things are happening. So that's

25:21

number one. And then to your point, these

25:23

court cases say what you

25:25

will, but I think the Democrats, there's a

25:27

phrase that they use in Hollywood once in

25:30

a while called jump the shark. It means

25:32

you go too far. You

25:34

look at so many cases, the Alvin

25:36

Bragg case, the statute of limitations has

25:38

expired. That's something near

25:40

and dear to our judicial system. He pumped

25:42

up a misdemeanor charge to a felony that

25:44

didn't make any sense. But all of these

25:47

things, as people are looking at them, say,

25:50

okay, this is what

25:52

happens in countries that aren't like the US

25:54

where someone uses the system, the judicial system

25:56

against them, and therefore it benefits them. And

25:58

I, I, I, I, I honestly think

26:00

it's strengthened him tremendously in the

26:03

primary and I think it's going to help him in the general

26:05

as well. A lot of voters

26:07

say to me all the time, and I'm not

26:09

unique, they tell it to pollsters and lots of

26:11

other journalists as well, that the thing that really

26:14

matters to them is the economy. That old phrase

26:16

in American politics, it's the economy is stupid. That's

26:18

always the thing that really matters. People

26:21

blame Joe Biden for rising prices,

26:23

both in the supermarket and petrol

26:25

gas prices over the last few

26:27

years, and it makes people who are

26:29

not even fans of Donald Trump tempted to vote for him.

26:32

But the economy is improving. Inflation is

26:35

coming down and it's a good wee while

26:37

between now and the November election. If the

26:39

economy does substantially improve, is that going to

26:41

be a real problem for Donald Trump, do

26:43

you think? Potentially, but

26:45

I'll say a couple of things. You look at the exit

26:47

polls, immigration has become a big issue as well. That's

26:50

not getting any better. And

26:52

the Biden administration shows no

26:54

signs of that. Two, the

26:56

Israeli-Hamas conflict is something that

26:59

is maybe not the biggest thing, but in a state like

27:01

Michigan, one of the eight states that I talked about, that

27:03

could have huge potential impact.

27:08

And Donald Trump won Michigan by 10,703 votes, 0.22%.

27:13

Joe Biden barely won Michigan last time. That's

27:16

the state that's in play. It's an issue

27:18

like what's happening in how the current President

27:21

Biden is handling that is a major problem

27:23

for Biden. But getting back to your point,

27:25

I've always said this when

27:27

I talk about politics. In America, people

27:30

vote on two fundamental things, the

27:32

economy and safety, and

27:34

they are both gut feelings. And so what's happening

27:37

in America right now is

27:39

that people are saying, well, inflation's coming down.

27:42

You should feel better. And for

27:44

a lot of Americans, it's just not happening. They're

27:47

still going to the grocery store, and yes, maybe eggs came

27:49

from $4 down to $3.25. But

27:52

they're still paying more than they were three

27:55

years ago. So If you

27:57

looked at it like a kid going to... The

28:00

go into coming home from school and they

28:02

were getting an ass. Maybe now they're only

28:04

getting a D is still not good and

28:06

you can rattle off as many statistics you

28:09

know that sorta thing to by Nick Biden

28:11

team is trying to do is say you

28:13

should feel better in so you viscerally feel

28:15

it. It doesn't matter what statistic get sore

28:18

you and and and as I said it's

28:20

the economic security and and personal security and

28:22

that's where the border place hints when people

28:24

don't feel safe. Then they're

28:26

going to vote like they don't feel

28:29

safe. The economy and safety are tied

28:31

together in similar ways in terms of

28:33

how people vote their.issues they're not a

28:35

statistical and voters looking at To Biden

28:37

and Donald Trump both of them as

28:39

a record in office. The So they

28:42

know what these men are like as

28:44

Presidents I do. You think voters will

28:46

perceive the baby what for in somebody's

28:48

mind would be the contrast between the

28:50

two. The easiest taste for Donald

28:52

Trump is to compare the four years of

28:55

Trump to the three years or by race

28:57

you. You easily can point to things like

28:59

the border and we have a massive Sat

29:01

know crisis here. People see this every day

29:04

now. So it's it's social media, it's the

29:06

news media covering It's is the By Demonstration.

29:08

Just wanted court case. They literally sued the

29:10

state of Texas soon as they could cut

29:12

down wire that Texas had put up to

29:15

help secure or the border between Texas and

29:17

Mexico is. The By Demonstration has lost that

29:19

argument on safety and security at our Southern.

29:21

Border, it's over. Nothing is better at

29:23

me. Biden himself said sometimes you turn

29:25

on the Tv and everything is bad

29:28

will no kidding. But for those people

29:30

who say well during Trump. The

29:32

policies of Donald Trump made my life better,

29:34

more secure. Made. The economy in our

29:37

communities better. If it's it's a no brainer

29:39

soon. It has been fascinating talking to you.

29:41

Thank you so much for joining us in

29:43

America! Always a pleasure sir! Thank you. He.

29:47

it's interest me i talked to a

29:49

democratic strategist earlier this evening and she

29:51

said yes the elections going to be

29:53

about the economy and see what degree

29:55

of with sean spicer their see focused

29:57

on abortion rather than immigration as the

29:59

other be issue. And she said that

30:01

the Democrats are going to try to

30:03

make Donald Trump the focus of

30:05

this election, make it all about putting Donald

30:07

Trump back in the White House and the

30:10

threat that he would present. So, you know,

30:12

I think both Sean Spicer and the strategist

30:14

I talked to would agree that the candidate

30:16

who best makes the other candidate the focus,

30:18

whether it's Joe Biden's record or Donald Trump's

30:20

record from when he was president, that is

30:22

going to be the winner

30:24

because honestly, Americans aren't really thrilled

30:27

with either choice. It's often

30:29

said, isn't it, that any presidential election

30:31

is basically a referendum on the incumbent

30:33

if you have somebody who's sitting in

30:35

the White House looking to get reelected,

30:37

that it's rarely a challenger who wins.

30:39

It's often the incumbent who loses. But

30:41

what's so different about this election is

30:43

we have two presidents, both of

30:45

whom have a record to run on. The

30:48

electorate can make their own decision, conduct their

30:50

own referendum on who they thought was better

30:52

in office. And the more

30:54

and more voters I speak to, they almost

30:56

all say basically they felt much better off

30:58

when Donald Trump was in the White House.

31:01

They think the economy was stronger. They had

31:03

more money in their pocket. And for a

31:05

lot of them, they don't care how hard

31:07

they have to hold their nose going into

31:09

a polling booth to support Donald Trump. They're

31:11

prepared to do it just because of that

31:14

will improve, they think, their own household bottom line.

31:16

OK, we've been talking about what has been happening

31:20

in New Hampshire tonight, but

31:22

let's rewind

31:28

a little bit because there have been

31:30

developments since the last time we America-casted.

31:33

And we haven't yet properly talked about

31:35

Ron DeSantis, now a former candidate. He

31:38

dropped out of the race rather suddenly

31:40

on Sunday, about three o'clock in the

31:42

afternoon, having said when he was defeated

31:44

in Iowa that he intended to carry

31:47

on. He changed his mind pretty swiftly

31:49

or maybe his donors changed his mind

31:51

for him. And he suspended

31:54

his campaign. as

32:00

a choice and that we can in fact succeed

32:03

again as a nation. Nobody

32:05

worked harder and we left it all out

32:07

on the field. Now following our

32:09

second place finish in Iowa, we've prayed and

32:11

deliberated on the way forward. If

32:13

there was anything I could do to produce

32:16

a favorable outcome, more campaign

32:18

stops, more interviews, I would

32:20

do it. But I can't ask our

32:22

supporters to volunteer their time and donate their

32:24

resources if we don't have a clear path

32:26

to victory. Accordingly, I am

32:29

today suspending my campaign. I'm

32:31

proud to have delivered on 100% of my promises. And

32:35

I will not... It's quite remarkable, I

32:37

think, the glee with which

32:39

this news has been greeted. And

32:41

that's not just among political opponents

32:43

or enemies of Ron DeSantis. On

32:45

the left, right are commentators in

32:47

the middle and unbiased. Everybody is

32:49

smirking a little bit about the

32:51

manner in which he had to

32:53

drop out because nobody ever

32:56

really liked him. Is that what went wrong,

32:58

do you think, Anthony? I think that's certainly

33:00

one of the reasons he did a very

33:02

good job of uniting a wide

33:04

variety of people in their dislike of him.

33:06

And I think that reflects that he had

33:09

some problems with, let's put

33:12

it rather delicately, problems with his charisma.

33:14

And it was something that I pointed

33:16

out from the very get-go, if you

33:18

remember, that when I saw him running

33:20

for a re-election as Florida governor, he

33:23

just didn't have the same kind of stage

33:25

presence. He didn't connect with the audience as

33:27

well as many other politicians, certainly not as

33:30

well as Donald Trump. And I wondered if

33:32

that was going to show

33:34

up when he hit the campaign trail in Iowa

33:36

and New Hampshire and elsewhere, and it did. I

33:39

think it's more than that, though, not

33:41

just a lack of charisma. I think

33:43

the problem with Ron DeSantis' campaign is

33:45

he ran as an alternative to Trump,

33:47

someone who is almost like Trump, had

33:49

the same policies as Trump, maybe a

33:52

little more so, more effective. But

33:54

Republican voters still wanted Trump. They had

33:56

the real thing. Why did they want

33:59

to go with it? a cheap

34:01

invitation. And because those Republican voters

34:03

never turned away from Trump, and

34:05

particularly because they rallied behind him

34:07

when those indictments came down at

34:09

the beginning of the year and

34:11

they all flocked to support him

34:13

and all of Donald Trump's rivals

34:16

defended Donald Trump, I think that

34:18

consolidated Donald Trump's support and

34:20

made it almost impossible for anyone,

34:22

whether it's even a charismatic run

34:24

to Sanders or someone else, to

34:26

dent Donald Trump's standing. And

34:28

so that's why we've seen a fairly stable

34:31

race ever since the beginning of the year,

34:33

near beginning of the year. Yes, he was

34:35

portraying himself as being Trump-like or Trump-lite. And

34:37

of course, as you say, the real thing

34:39

was on offer and just got more and

34:41

more popular the more he was indicted. Because

34:44

remember, I mean, this time last year, we

34:46

were all saying, oh, look, Donald Trump endorsed

34:48

the wrong candidates in the midterm elections and

34:50

lots of them didn't get elected, whereas Ron

34:52

DeSantis had just been reelected with a huge

34:55

majority in Florida. He looked like he was

34:57

the guy who was bringing in votes and

34:59

Donald Trump was looking like a little bit

35:01

of a loser. And it was

35:03

the indictments that turned that around for him

35:06

a bit. And then of course, he is

35:08

just such a much better campaigner than Ron

35:10

DeSantis. He just didn't seem to have many

35:12

political skills. He wasn't selling different policies. He

35:14

didn't have a distinctive pitch. And it

35:17

was, I think, was it Donald Trump

35:19

who said, Ron DeSantis's problem is he

35:21

needs a personality transplant and unfortunately for him,

35:23

they are not available yet. Exactly.

35:26

And I'll be curious to see where

35:28

Ron DeSantis goes from here. Obviously, still

35:30

harbors presidential ambitions. He

35:32

will probably end up running in

35:34

2028 could very well end up

35:36

running against Nikki Haley in 2028.

35:39

Because even if Donald Trump wins, he wouldn't

35:41

be eligible for another term, which is kind

35:44

of why you've seen some sharp elbows between

35:46

the two of them because they know they

35:48

both are eyeing races to come and they

35:50

don't want to let the other one have

35:52

the upper hand. So we'll see if Ron

35:55

DeSantis is able to learn from his mistakes,

35:57

able to become a little bit more personal.

36:00

reasonable, make a little bit better connection with

36:02

voters, and come out in

36:04

another four years with a better version

36:06

of himself. Because it is quite common

36:08

for people who have lost in one

36:10

year to come back and claim the

36:12

nomination four years on, just because you've

36:14

dropped out at this point doesn't mean

36:16

that you're marked as a loser forever.

36:18

But I think you're right, Ron DeSantis

36:20

would have to reinvent his political personality

36:22

quite significantly to make a success of

36:24

it. So Ron DeSantis, when he bowed

36:26

out of the race, he did tip

36:29

his cap to Donald Trump and give

36:32

him his endorsement even as he took a few

36:34

swipes at Nikki Haley on the way out. It's

36:38

clear to me that a majority of Republican primary

36:40

voters want to give Donald Trump another chance. They

36:43

watch his presidency get stymied by

36:45

relentless resistance, and they see Democrats

36:47

using law fair this day to attack him.

36:50

While I've had disagreements with Donald Trump,

36:52

such as on the coronavirus pandemic

36:54

and his elevation of Anthony Fauci,

36:56

Trump is superior to the current incumbent

36:58

Joe Biden. That is clear. I

37:01

signed a pledge to support the Republican

37:03

nominee, and I will honor that pledge.

37:06

He has my endorsement because we can't go

37:08

back to the old Republican guard of

37:10

yesteryear, a repackage formed of —

37:12

Yeah, it is a bit of a

37:14

surprise in some ways to hear him

37:16

endorsing Donald Trump, given what he had

37:18

to say just over a week ago.

37:20

You can be the most worthless Republican

37:22

in America, but if you kiss the

37:24

ring, he'll say you're wonderful. You

37:27

can be the strongest, most

37:30

dynamic, successful Republican and

37:32

conservative in America, but if you don't

37:34

kiss that ring, then he'll try to

37:37

trash you. You know what? You

37:39

deserve a nominee that's going to put you first,

37:41

not himself first. And that does bring

37:44

us to an excellent question that we've

37:46

had from Jane in Edinburgh. Hello,

37:48

America. I'm Jane Hochson here from Edinburgh.

37:50

Do the candidates who are dropping out

37:52

of the Republican race have to endorse

37:55

one of the people they've been slagging

37:57

off for months? It can only

37:59

confirm every — do you want to worst assumptions

38:01

about politicians? So no, candidates

38:04

don't have to endorse one of the

38:06

people. They've been slagging off for months.

38:09

Although if you recall, when

38:12

all of these Republican candidates

38:14

participated in the debates

38:17

earlier this year, they had to sign a

38:19

pledge or were asked to sign a pledge

38:21

saying that they would support the eventual nominee

38:23

of the party. So they were going to

38:25

have to fall in line at one point

38:27

or another, but they didn't have to endorse

38:29

anyone before the nominee

38:31

was decided. I think

38:33

in Donald Trump's case, all of the

38:36

other candidates realized where this train was

38:38

headed. And if they didn't get on

38:40

board the Donald Trump train, they were

38:42

going to get run over by it.

38:45

So that's why they swallowed their pride

38:47

and signed up for yet another Trump

38:49

presidential election campaign. Yeah, I

38:51

mean, it's one thing to endorse one of

38:53

your rivals. And of course, that does happen

38:55

in the normal course of things, not least

38:58

because you want to guide your supporters to

39:01

where you think that they ought to go.

39:03

But the way in which these candidates have

39:05

been lining up and physically lining up behind

39:07

Donald Trump on stage, I

39:09

mean, I don't know. I just think it looks

39:12

a little desperate, don't you think, Anthony? It

39:14

does. But I remember back

39:16

in 2016, you saw people like

39:18

Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz after

39:20

being belittled by Donald

39:23

Trump. They all eventually lined

39:25

up, swallowed their pride and

39:27

offered lavish praises of Donald

39:29

Trump. It's a

39:31

reality that it's not just Donald Trump

39:33

they're afraid of, but it's Donald Trump's

39:35

voters and an acceptance of the fact

39:37

and acknowledgement of the fact that Donald

39:39

Trump's voters are the ones who control

39:41

this party. And they go where Donald

39:43

Trump says, and if they aren't on the

39:46

right side, they have no political future

39:48

within the party. All the

39:50

questions are coming from Scotland today, I am

39:52

pleased to say. And we've got another one

39:54

here from Glasgow. Hello, America.

39:57

It's Steve from Glasgow in the UK.

40:00

The question is, what is the

40:02

latest beat by which a nominee can put

40:04

themselves forward to be the Republican candidate for

40:06

the 2024 presidential race?

40:09

I've seen some coverage of Liz Cheney saying that she

40:11

hasn't decided whether she'll run or not. If

40:13

she runs, what impact do you think it would

40:15

have if any? Well, I think

40:18

that ship has sailed. Certainly the Republican

40:20

nomination process, most of the deadlines, if

40:22

not all of the deadlines, and I

40:24

have to check, but they've passed. This

40:27

race is going down and Donald Trump

40:29

has got it locked up. Now, a

40:31

question of whether someone like Liz Cheney

40:34

decides to run as an independent, as

40:36

a third-party candidate in

40:38

the presidential election in November, the general

40:40

election. Well, there are still deadlines that

40:42

are ahead for that. In fact, you

40:44

see people like Robert Kennedy Jr. still

40:46

fighting to get on the ballot. I

40:48

think he's only on the ballot in

40:50

Utah right now, but there are still

40:52

deadlines ahead that they can qualify for.

40:54

A lot of those deadlines don't hit

40:56

till this summer, but it is a

40:59

high bar to reach. Liz Cheney would

41:01

have to get signatures, and we're talking

41:03

about tens of thousands or more of

41:05

signatures in certain states. Each state has

41:07

different rules on getting on the ballot. It

41:09

is a monumental

41:12

logistical challenge to try to get

41:14

on enough states to be a

41:16

viable candidate, and that takes money,

41:18

and that takes time, and that

41:20

takes name recognition. Liz Cheney

41:23

has name recognition, I suppose, among

41:25

some. She has a fair amount

41:27

of time, but does she really have the money

41:29

to pull it off, or does any candidate, any

41:31

third-party candidate have the money to pull it off?

41:34

That's what makes the American

41:36

politics the duopoly that it

41:38

is. Now, talking of

41:40

potential alternate candidates, I'm

41:43

hearing that it might be really quite

41:45

soon that we hear that Joe Manchin

41:47

is announced as the No Label third-party

41:50

candidate. If he is, obviously we'll talk

41:52

about that in much greater detail in

41:54

another episode. Now, No Label is that

41:56

organization that says it wants to stand

41:59

between the... the Democrats and the Republicans, they've

42:01

already done a lot of work of getting onto

42:03

the ballots in different states. So he or anybody

42:05

else who runs for them ought to be okay

42:08

with that. I'll tell you what though, Anthony, people

42:10

keep asking me all the time and I don't

42:12

know the answer to this. If

42:15

something were to happen, God forbid, to

42:17

Joe Biden and for health reasons, he

42:19

was completely unable to run. How

42:22

late can it be that the Democratic Party

42:24

pick another candidate by whatever means they do

42:26

so and get the right name on the

42:28

ballot? By what date will I actually say

42:31

Kamala Harris or whomsoever on the ballot instead

42:33

of voters going in and having to tick

42:35

a box for Joe Biden, who might possibly

42:37

be the late Joe Biden? Well, there are

42:40

balloting deadlines, ballot name deadlines in each state

42:42

and each state is different, but most of

42:44

those come in the fall. You have to

42:46

remember there's early voting in

42:49

a lot of these states, so people start casting

42:51

their ballots in October, even though

42:53

the election's not until November. So

42:55

the deadlines would fall before that. So

42:57

we're looking at September or thereabouts for

43:00

a lot of these different states. Obviously,

43:02

it's a challenge that a party would

43:04

have to face to pick who the

43:06

next candidate, the replacement candidate would be.

43:08

If it happened before a national convention,

43:10

well, it would be delegates to that

43:12

convention who might ultimately decide it. If

43:14

it happens after the convention, it could

43:16

be the running mate who steps in

43:18

and runs at the top of the

43:20

ticket instead and they find a new

43:23

vice presidential nominee. So this is uncharted

43:25

ground by and large. We haven't had

43:27

something like that happen in American politics,

43:30

in modern political history certainly, but it

43:32

would be an interesting thing to game

43:34

out and it could happen

43:36

as long as it doesn't get too close

43:38

to that election day deadline. If you've got

43:40

any questions, you can always get us on

43:42

WhatsApp, plus 44 330 123 9480, americast

43:49

at bbc.co.uk or use the

43:51

hashtag americast on social media. All right. So,

43:53

Sarah, I guess you and I are both heading

43:55

back to Washington, D.C. now. Yes. And basically we

43:57

don't know if we're going to be going to.

44:00

in South Carolina in a few weeks' time

44:02

or not. I kind of hope we are,

44:04

partly because I enjoy these things, but also

44:06

because I enjoy Charleston very much. There's a

44:08

couple of nice restaurants I'm looking forward to

44:10

visiting. I haven't been there for years, but

44:13

it may be that the contest is over

44:15

by then. Yes, I think loyal listeners know

44:17

I love South Carolina. It is a vacation

44:19

and political hotspot for me, but I will

44:21

look forward to talking to AmeriCasters soon. Goodbye.

44:23

See you all later. AmeriCasts.

44:26

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44:29

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