0:02

When they are ready, they'll let us know, very

0:04

simple, ready to do whatever, doesn't

0:07

make any difference, whatever they want to do. I'm

0:09

ready. That's the President talking

0:11

about Iran. And we said to ourselves, we said,

0:13

we need to talk to somebody who knows a lot about

0:15

that part of the world, about what

0:17

could be going on with us. And Ran indeed

0:20

a lot of strong statements, a lot of talking

0:22

heads who don't have half an idea what they're talking

0:24

about. And then you have Ambassador face allil

0:27

Estra Body, who's the former Iraq Ambassador

0:29

to the u N one of the authors of that country's

0:31

constitution and director for the center

0:33

of Something behind Sean's head. Thank

0:37

you, the Study of the Middle East at Indiana

0:39

University. My apologies,

0:42

Ambassador Alistra Body. How are you, sir? I'm

0:45

very well, thank you, delighted to be with you again.

0:47

Thank you. It's been too long. So why

0:49

don't we begin with uh Iran

0:52

and their their recent actions, their motivations,

0:55

what's their game, what are their goals? Well,

1:00

I think that a

1:03

couple of things. One, as is always

1:06

the case, regime survival

1:08

is the number one priority. And

1:10

there are people in the US administration

1:12

that have given conflicting signals about that.

1:15

John Bolton, the National Security Advisor,

1:17

very famously wants regime change

1:19

in Iran. Now it's interesting because

1:22

the President has said that he is not interested

1:24

in regime change. He only wants uh,

1:27

he only wants UM to ensure

1:29

that Iran doesn't obtain

1:31

a nuclear weapon. Now, the problem

1:34

with that is that the United States is actually

1:36

transferring nuclear technology to

1:38

Saudi Arabia as we speak UM,

1:41

and so Iran will be looking

1:44

back across the Gulf and saying,

1:47

uh uh, this doesn't look good

1:49

for us. In the meantime, they were

1:52

um, actually complying

1:54

with the terms of the so called Joint Comprehensive

1:56

Plan of Action, which is what the

1:58

President calls a nuclear deal, and

2:01

very there is zero evidence

2:04

that they were not in compliance with those

2:06

terms. It's the United States which

2:08

went out of compliance and withdrew

2:11

unilaterally, couldn't even bring the

2:13

UH European allies aboard. And

2:16

so the Uranians are looking at this and saying,

2:18

what's our incentive for negotiating.

2:20

We negotiated, we came to an

2:22

agreement, we abided by an

2:24

agreement UM, and the other side

2:27

violated it. So what assurances do

2:29

we have that if we negotiate again, we won't

2:31

be in the same position a year, two years,

2:33

three years down the road. Um.

2:35

It's uh. It's one thing to renegotiate,

2:38

it's another to withdraw and

2:41

reinstitute sanctions without

2:43

a justification under the original

2:46

agreement at least um and then

2:48

expect the other side to negotiate again. It's

2:50

it's a very tricky situation. The President has

2:52

put the US in um and the Iranians

2:54

aren't playing his game. Well, maybe that was the

2:56

problem with the agreement. I was watching Senator Mark

2:59

Rubio make a point yesterday that while

3:01

they were in a compliance

3:03

with the agreement, as you just said, with the specifics

3:05

that we discussed, they were not in

3:07

compliance with the spirit of the

3:10

agreement, and that they were continuing to

3:13

be the world's number one exporter of

3:15

terror and be involved in a bunch of things that we don't

3:17

like. So, how do you how do we do with

3:19

that? Well, the

3:23

you deal with that as such? You

3:26

don't that made. First of all,

3:28

there's no such thing as a spirit of an agreement. There's

3:31

there's an agreement, and there are terms of an agreement.

3:33

And Senator Rubio knows that UM.

3:35

You know, you would be hard

3:38

if if you had made every

3:40

payment on your on your mortgage

3:43

on time and in the proper amount.

3:46

UM. You would feel mightily put upon

3:48

if your mortgage company foreclosed on your

3:50

house because it felt you were not in compliance

3:53

with the spirit of the mortgage agreement. There

3:56

there are terms of a mortgage agreement, and if

3:58

you're either comply or you don't. This is

4:00

an international agreement that is sanctioned

4:02

by UM six countries

4:05

seven if you include Iran, but five some

4:07

of America's closest allies, and

4:09

the United Nations Security Council, on which

4:11

the United States sits, where it

4:14

along with four other powers, has a veto. You

4:17

have never had a guest on your

4:19

show more critical of the Iranian government

4:22

and of its actions in the

4:24

Middle East than I. There may be others

4:27

who hold it in the same lower regard the government

4:29

of Iran as I do, but you've never had one

4:31

that has holds it in lower

4:34

regard than I do. UM.

4:36

But this isn't a game of

4:38

monopoly. This this

4:41

is you know, playing at at

4:43

the highest level in the international community.

4:45

And there's ways of doing things. And

4:47

what the President did in unilaterally

4:49

withdrawing US generally, is not it,

4:52

particularly because I can't

4:54

tell what the strategy behind the

4:57

United States actions is. I

4:59

know what the steps they're taking are,

5:02

but sanctions are not a policy.

5:05

What's the policy. I

5:07

happen to agree with the President's point of view

5:10

on the previous agreement,

5:12

but walking away from

5:14

it is an enormous gamble, by

5:17

the way, Donald Trump, candidate

5:19

Donald Trump, agreed with that. Yeah.

5:21

Look, Jim Mattis general matters of former

5:24

Secretary of Defense was against the agreement,

5:27

he thought, and he was out of government at the time, of

5:29

course, and he thought the agreement

5:31

that the Obama administration entered into

5:33

was it was a mistake. But

5:36

he also thought withdraw and testified

5:38

in Congress when he was still Secretary of Defense

5:40

that it was it would be a strategic mistake

5:43

for the United States to withdraw. And

5:45

the problem and Trump said that as well.

5:47

Well. What he said, he said it differently when he was

5:49

a candidate. What he said was it's

5:51

an international agreement. It involves our allies,

5:54

and you can't just walk away from an international agreement.

5:56

He's right about that. But if you do

5:58

walk away, you

6:00

would have thought you would do it in a way

6:02

that would bring the allies on board, so there

6:04

would be international support other

6:07

than Israel, Saudi

6:10

Arabia, Bahrain and

6:12

the United Air Emirates. The United

6:14

States has no support for what for

6:16

what it did in walking away from the

6:18

agreement, and therefore no way.

6:21

You know, the United States maybe the sort of eight

6:23

hundred pound guerrilla in international

6:25

affairs. But as as Vietnam

6:28

proved, I think two generations ago, our generation

6:31

ago, um, the United States

6:33

still can't do it alone. It's it's

6:35

not strong enough to take on the entire

6:37

world. Um, it needs

6:39

allies to get its strategic objections

6:42

objectives. Sorry, it's strategic

6:44

objectives accomplished. And

6:46

here I don't even think we know

6:49

what those objectives are. How about

6:51

we start at the at the

6:53

well at the top of this discussion, which would be

6:56

Iran getting a nuclear weapon. Is that

6:58

something we should you hold them in low and low regard.

7:01

Is that something we should just not allow, no matter

7:03

what the price is to pay, We just cannot let Iran

7:05

have a nuclear weapon. Well, believe

7:07

me as someone as you know, in your

7:09

introduction you played out I was an ambassador

7:12

from Iran's from the country

7:14

that shares a thousand mile border with Iran.

7:16

I am the last one

7:18

that wants to see Iran with a nuclear

7:21

weapon, but to

7:23

to get us to that state, it

7:26

would help if the United States

7:28

weren't transferring nuclear arms

7:30

technology to Saudi Arabia, Iran's

7:33

chief rival in the region, and we're

7:36

also transferring nuclear technology. United

7:38

States is transferring technology to

7:40

the United Arab Emirates as well, um

7:43

another rival, although a much relatively

7:46

minor arrival compared to Saudi Arabia. Quick

7:48

question about that if forgive me

7:50

for interjecting, but is the hatred,

7:53

the fear between Iran and Saudi

7:55

Arabia primarily theological?

7:59

The political? Sonny are

8:02

So it's it's just your good old yeah.

8:05

So you had to say it's it's geopolitics.

8:07

A lot of the talking heads you were talking

8:09

about it when you were introducing

8:12

the topic. You can't, I mean, you

8:14

can't think about the Middle East without thinking about

8:16

religion. It's politics. When the Shah was

8:20

was was running Iran back until nine

8:22

when the Middlers came to power, you had the same

8:25

tensions between him and the

8:27

other states, and he was as secular as you I

8:29

could hope for um. But

8:32

so it's uh. But by the way,

8:35

if you want to know who started the

8:37

Iranian nuclear program,

8:39

it would be a minor, little country you might have heard

8:41

of called the United States of America. Well,

8:45

I've made mistakes through my life too, I

8:48

understand that. So whenever I hear about

8:50

the nuclear transfers we're doing the Saudi

8:52

Arabia always sort of in the back of my mind think

8:54

what could go wrong? Ambassador facilel

8:57

Istra, body is on the line from Iraq ambassador

9:00

to the U N Obviously we

9:02

haven't mentioned a little country there

9:04

by the Dead Sea Israel. Uh. They

9:06

certainly have a voice in the region and have made

9:08

it utterly clear that they're not gonna wait

9:11

till there's a mushroom cloud

9:13

over Tel Aviv. They're going to strike Iran. Do

9:15

you take them at the word? Um?

9:17

Not really for a technical reason.

9:20

Um, they don't have the hardware to do

9:22

what would be necessary to do to take

9:24

out a any Iran any

9:27

restarted Irani and nuclear

9:29

program. Um they there are

9:33

they They were able to take out the

9:35

Iraqi program back in the

9:38

eighty two. I can't remember now because

9:41

uh, well, the Iranians learned from the lesson

9:43

that Iraq, the mistakes

9:45

Iraq made, Um, they would

9:47

need to First of all, they don't have a refueling

9:51

ability, they don't have the heavy bombers. They don't have

9:53

the heavy bombs. Um. It's

9:55

the basically the only country that can do

9:57

this as a United States. Which is why I ne who's

10:00

been trying to get the US to

10:02

do it for for for years. He's

10:04

been saying for more than a decade that Iran

10:06

is a year away from a nuclear bomb. Which

10:09

is the odd thing about withdrawing from the deal

10:11

because the deal, for all all its flaws, and I

10:13

agree with you, it's a it was a very flawed

10:16

deal. Um.

10:18

George W. Bush walked

10:20

away in two thousand and four. I think

10:23

it was from a much stronger deal. He

10:25

refused to sort of pull the trigger and make an agreement

10:28

with the Iranians, and the Iranians

10:30

just kept working, and by the time Obama

10:33

made his deal in two thousand fifteen,

10:35

the terms of the deal were much less in

10:37

the favor of the United States than if

10:39

the United States had made an agreement with Iran

10:42

in two thousand four. But that's the that's

10:44

the hand uh we were dealt

10:47

UM. I agree with strengthening

10:49

the deal. I think there was a way to try

10:52

to make the deal a little more permanent or more

10:54

permanent or permanent, and to bring

10:56

Iran within compliance with what's called

10:59

the Additional Protocol Hall of the Non Proliferation

11:01

Treaty. But a

11:03

unilateral withdrawal without the support

11:06

even of the European Allies, much less Russia

11:08

and China as permanent members of the Security

11:10

Council, I don't think was the way to do it.

11:12

So I've been reading a lot about the leader

11:14

of the

11:16

uh Airb

11:18

Emirates m S what's mb

11:20

zz and and his and his

11:22

role in the Middle East, and now he and MBS with

11:24

Saudi Arabia are working together to try to eliminate

11:27

a Ran. So, uh this is a really

11:29

high stakes game, isn't it. It's an

11:31

extremely high stakes game, and it's unfortunately

11:34

one that the US is getting drawn

11:36

into. And I don't think there's a happy outcome

11:38

for the United States to be involved in

11:40

these sorts of regional regional

11:42

disputes. The Crown Prince of

11:45

the U a E Is mb Z Mohammed

11:48

bin zayat Um, and he

11:50

is sort of rumored to be kind of the mentor

11:53

of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. They're

11:55

both, they both have the titles of Crown

11:58

Prince, and they both run their respective countries

12:00

for a variety of reasons. UM. And they

12:02

are indeed taking on Iran. Keep

12:04

in mind, they have been trying

12:07

to take on the whole sees of

12:09

Yemen for what is it for or five

12:11

years now. I can't remember exactly when the bombing

12:13

started. I think it was two thousand and fourteen, it might have

12:15

been fifteen, UM. And they

12:18

haven't been able to take on a rebel group

12:20

in a little country like Yemen, which

12:23

they regard that little rebel group

12:25

as one of Iran's proxies. If

12:28

they can't take them on effectively,

12:30

I don't know how they're going to take Iran effectively.

12:33

And one of my real fears. And

12:36

keep in mind, I know you introduced me as an Iraqi

12:38

ambassador, and I was, but I'm also a natural

12:40

born citizen of the United States. I'm a natural born

12:43

citizen of both countries. So as an American

12:45

citizen born in the United States, I'm

12:47

really concerned that that that one

12:50

or two regional powers in the Middle East

12:52

have a real interest in trying to draw the

12:55

United States into an armed conflict

12:57

with Iran, and I see no uh

13:01

no United States national security

13:03

interest in getting into a shooting war

13:05

with Iran, though improving

13:08

the deal with Iran is certainly in

13:10

the American interest if it can be done

13:12

through diplomacy. Facil Istrobody,

13:14

former Rock Ambassador to the u N Director to the Center

13:17

for the Study of the Middle East at Indiana University,

13:19

Sir, it's always enlightening. We sure appreciate

13:21

the time. Thanks a million. It's always

13:23

a pleasure. I enjoy it very much. Thank you. Okay,

13:26

follow up discussion, cetera. To come

13:29

stay with us.