Further reading:

David Deutsch: “The Beginning of Infinity”, chapter 1, “The Reach of Explanations”

Karl Popper:- On verisimilitude: “Conjectures and Refutations”, chapter “Truth, Rationality, and the Growth of Knowledge”, section “Truth and Content: Verisimilitude versus Probability”- On the conflation of probability and verisimilitude: “Back to the Presocratics”- On problems with verisimilitude: “Objective Knowledge” appendix 2