0:00

Usually contained as four

0:02

or five day Wars between

0:04

Armenian forces and that's by John in

0:07

the morning and in the area of the international

0:09

border between two States. But I think this

0:11

could spill over into a longer,

0:19

Hi everyone, and welcome to another edition of backstory.

0:22

I'm Dana Lewis. One of Europe's frozen

0:25

conflicts as erupted again, fighting

0:27

between Armenia and Azerbaijan over

0:29

an area called Nagorno-Karabakh. If

0:32

you live in America or Canada

0:34

or elsewhere, it's really hard to worry about it

0:36

or to care about it. But listen, we ought to

0:39

Russia is supporting Armenia. Turkey

0:41

is behind Azerbaijan and

0:43

experts say this could develop into

0:45

something that could be a much wider conflict

0:48

. And by the way, it's potentially,

0:50

and we'll ask our guests who I'm about to introduce

0:52

you to, is it a product of a

0:54

wider conflict like Syria

0:57

where Russia and Turkey

0:59

You're on opposite sides or Libya where Russian

1:01

supports one war , Lord , and Turkey

1:03

and other . So let's talk to the people who understand

1:06

this and can explain it better than I can. First

1:08

of all, Lawrence brewers is

1:10

the caucuses programs, director of

1:12

the London based peace building organization,

1:15

conciliation resources. He

1:18

has more than 20 years of experience as a researcher

1:20

in conflicts in the South caucuses. And

1:22

he is a practitioner of peace building initiatives

1:25

in the region. Hi Lawrence . Hi,

1:27

good to be here. And Joshua

1:30

Kuchera is in Tbilisi, Georgia and

1:32

the caucuses editor of Eurasia net.

1:34

Hi, Josh. Thanks for having

1:36

me. Alright . I said it, but

1:39

I didn't quite understand it. Europe's

1:42

frozen conflicts . What

1:44

does that mean when we're talking about this area?

1:46

Do you want to take the first one judge? Sure.

1:49

Well, when you say frozen conflict, it refers

1:51

to, there were a whole series of the conflicts

1:54

in the former Soviet union , uh

1:56

, as the Soviet union collapsed. Um,

2:00

cause you had Southwest Sedia in Georgia.

2:02

There's Transnistria in Moldova and

2:04

Nagorno-Karabakh in , um, in

2:07

, uh, uh, Azerbaijan.

2:10

Uh, this is , uh , it's a bit of a misnomer

2:12

to say frozen conflicts at this point. I think the others,

2:15

you can safely call fairly frozen, but

2:17

Karbach has been throwing

2:19

and throwing and throwing and now it's, you know

2:21

, practically on fire. So frozen.

2:23

I was just going to say Lawrence, I mean, this seems like

2:25

a,

2:26

It's not frozen in any way. I mean, there's

2:28

a , this is kinetics. This is fighting

2:31

that that started pretty well a week ago.

2:34

Yeah, absolutely. I avoid

2:36

the term frozen conflict. Uh, when

2:38

talking about this particular conflict , I agree with Josh

2:40

, uh, you know, you can say that perhaps

2:42

for Transnistria and for [inaudible]

2:46

, but since 2014 in particular,

2:49

we have seen periodic escalations

2:52

usually contained as four

2:54

or five day Wars , uh , between Armenian

2:56

forces and that's by John morning

2:59

and in the area of national border

3:01

between two States. But I think this could spill

3:04

over into a longer conflict

3:06

Reading some of the things both of you have written about this

3:08

and Lawrence you in particular, I mean at a very

3:10

interesting line where you said this is

3:13

like world war II ,

3:14

One trench warfare that

3:16

is still to this day being fought in Europe.

3:20

Yeah. I mean, one of the things that I'm often

3:22

asked is why should people in Europe care about

3:24

this conflict? Uh, the relevance

3:26

of the compact is often framed in terms

3:28

of , uh, energy , uh, oil and gas

3:31

transit from the Caspian to European markets.

3:33

And of course that that is significant,

3:36

but I think much more important are these two other factors.

3:38

First of all, the potential for

3:41

this conflicts to bring in , uh , to

3:43

become , uh , an object of policy

3:45

by external powers are

3:47

looking to protect , influence. And then

3:49

simply the fact that more than a hundred years after

3:51

the end of the first world war, we

3:54

see trench warfare in some places

3:56

Armenian and as a by Gianni soldiers are so close

3:58

that they can hear one another very reminiscent

4:01

of those parallels of the

4:03

tragedy of trench warfare in world war

4:05

one.

4:07

Well , what is Nagorno-Karabakh and why

4:09

does anybody want

4:09

The fight over it? Uh,

4:12

well, so Nagorno-Karabakh how to , where

4:14

to start. Um, it's a

4:16

, an internationally recognized part of

4:18

, uh, Azerbaijan during

4:20

the Soviet union. It was , um, uh,

4:23

populated by a majority ethnic Armenian

4:25

, uh, population , uh,

4:28

during , uh , the , the collapse of the Soviet

4:30

union. Uh, there were, there was

4:32

an Armenian movement to , uh,

4:35

sort of remove , uh, um,

4:38

Karbach from Soviet Azerbaijan, enjoyed

4:40

it to Soviet Armenia, this

4:42

, uh, you know, escalated. And

4:44

, uh, during this point , uh,

4:47

the Soviet union collapsed Armenia and Azerbaijan became

4:50

independent States and this became

4:52

an interstate war , um,

4:56

than , uh , it had been that that war ended,

4:59

quote unquote in 1994 with a ceasefire

5:01

with Armenians controlling , uh,

5:04

both Nagorno-Karabakh the former, what was, what

5:06

was under the Soviet union , uh, called

5:09

an autonomous , uh , Oh , blast of Nagorno-Karabakh

5:12

, uh, as well as , um,

5:15

a large part of , uh , other Azerbaijani

5:17

territory that had not been part of Nagano Carbox

5:20

that , um , was at that point

5:22

populated almost entirely by , uh

5:25

, ethnic Azerbaijanis. So since 1994

5:27

Armenia has , uh, controlled

5:30

that territory. Uh,

5:32

and since that time, as well as John

5:34

has been trying to get it back , um,

5:37

either by there've been long peace negotiations

5:39

, uh, over the past few years, the

5:41

peace negotiations seem to have , um

5:44

, lost much hope for

5:47

success is

5:49

their golden Hills. Is there injustice

5:55

that Azerbaijanis feel like this been stolen

5:57

from them by force? Secondly,

6:00

there are 600,000

6:02

, uh , Azerbaijani people

6:05

who still Harbor hopes of being

6:07

able to return to their, to their homes in that

6:09

territory

6:10

In Lawrence. I mean, this is, I think

6:13

the Joshua was trying to do his best

6:15

to edit long history there, but I mean,

6:17

before that the Persians were involved

6:20

and before that, you know, constantly

6:22

,

6:23

Uh , ha had a stranglehold over the area.

6:26

Yeah. I mean the South Caucasus or TransCore

6:29

Kasia is it used to be known as always been

6:31

a, kind of a field of

6:34

forum , uh , where surrounding

6:36

great powers and empires , um, have

6:38

, have tried to exert their influence, but it's always been

6:41

at the very edge of their power

6:43

and that's allowed local potentates

6:45

to , uh , to a considerable

6:47

degree of , of independence. And

6:50

I think, you know, to come back to the question of why this is so

6:52

important for Armenians

6:54

, um, Nevada Karbach was one

6:56

place where a degree of autonomy was

6:58

preserved long after the medieval kingdoms

7:02

had disappeared. Um, and in the

7:04

context of 20th century genocide , uh,

7:06

Nagorno-Karabakh has seen as one place where

7:09

an indigenous Armenian population survived.

7:11

And so it seemed very much in existential

7:13

terms where Azerbaijan , uh,

7:17

Nagorno-Karabakh is seen as the cradle of culture. Uh , there

7:19

are poets musicians and composers

7:22

who came from the territory. And

7:24

perhaps beyond that , um, the

7:27

territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is what

7:29

defines , uh , as a vagina

7:31

, as a nation. And you have very large numbers of

7:33

Azerbaijanis living in Iran in Georgia.

7:36

Uh , so does the state is the territory of the state

7:38

, uh , that defines that identity

7:40

more clearly than in any other parameter.

7:43

And there's a huge sense of grievance as Josh

7:45

was underlining amongst , uh

7:48

, the internally displaced population,

7:50

who do you still hope to return to home? So

7:53

, uh , it's really , uh , you know, so much

7:55

has been invested in terms of domestic politics into

7:57

this very hard step .

7:59

One of you can take this, but I mean, is there part

8:01

of an unclosed chapter in the Armenian

8:04

genocide of which, you know, Turkey

8:07

has been accused of killing a million and a half

8:09

people?

8:12

Yeah. I mean, I think that consciousness very

8:14

much frames , uh, the Armenian

8:17

, uh , prison , uh, the vision of Namony

8:19

Karbach Nicole Patheon has framed what's

8:22

happening at the moment as existential.

8:25

Um, and so I think, you know, the fear

8:27

of renewed , uh, ethnic cleansing

8:29

and genocide of Armenians , uh,

8:32

it does drive this conflict. Um, and

8:35

you know what we've seen across the divide

8:37

in the early 19 nine , jeez , uh, mass

8:39

displacement on both sides, they used to be vibrant

8:42

communities of Armenians in

8:44

various cities that are no longer there.

8:47

Uh , likewise , uh , substantial

8:49

numbers of Azerbaijanis living in Armenia

8:51

, uh , all trace of them practically

8:54

is gone. So the shadow

8:56

of ethnic cleansing definitely informs the

8:58

perceptions of fear today. Joshua you're nodding

9:00

your head. I mean, Lauren said that far

9:02

more eloquently than I could have , but I sign

9:04

on to everything that he said,

9:07

One of the most militarized

9:09

borders in the world.

9:12

Is that , is that correct?

9:15

Yeah, either

9:17

one. Absolutely. I mean, there's, there's

9:19

a, I don't know how many places are there are in the world where there's

9:22

really absolutely no way to cross this border.

9:24

Uh , there's not a single , um, crossing

9:26

, um, uh , at all

9:28

it's, it's frontlines from top

9:30

to bottom. Yeah .

9:32

It's a proxy war between Russia and Turkey

9:35

because , uh , you

9:37

know, Russia has supplied weapons to

9:40

Armenia. They have a base in

9:42

Armenia. I saw, you know, in the initial

9:44

fighting in the last week that there was

9:47

some [inaudible]

9:47

Two tanks destroyed, then there was a

9:49

report of a Sukhoi down , you

9:52

know, these are all Russian aircraft

9:54

and , and armor, but at the same time, Russia

9:56

reportedly supplies the Armenian side as well.

9:59

It's, it's a great place to sell weapons

10:01

for Russia. Yeah . Russia,

10:03

arms, both sides , um, Armenia

10:06

almost entirely. Uh,

10:08

Azerbaijan has a few other alternative

10:10

sources of weaponry, but still

10:12

the large majority of its weapons also come from

10:14

Russia. Um , but I think it's important

10:16

to not think of this as a proxy war. It could

10:19

become a proxy war. I mean, that's , that is,

10:21

that is a real danger right now, especially

10:23

with Turkey's kind of newly

10:27

assertive posture in the region.

10:30

Um, but I think that , uh, to say

10:32

that it's a proxy war in general is

10:34

, is overstated. I mean, the, the dynamics

10:36

that are driving it are a hundred

10:38

percent , uh , internal , uh,

10:40

and like you said, Turkey

10:43

does back Azerbaijan, Russia

10:46

has a treaty obligation

10:48

to defend , uh, Armenia,

10:50

if it's invaded, we don't know

10:52

whether that's going to be activated

10:55

or not. Uh, but, but still

10:58

to , at this point, look at external

11:00

factors for the conflict

11:02

, uh , would be, would be to misunderstand

11:04

it.

11:05

Would you buy into that? I mean, there's

11:08

a lot of tension between Russia and Turkey

11:10

in different places. As we mentioned before,

11:12

and in Syria, Libya ,

11:15

Um, Turkey really rolled out

11:17

, uh, the press, the

11:20

national press on this when the fighting started

11:22

, uh , accusing Armenia of

11:24

being entirely sympathetic

11:28

The other side. I mean, do , do you see it

11:30

as internal or do you see some

11:32

external pulling of the strings?

11:36

Yeah, I absolutely agree

11:38

with Joshua that we should not

11:40

see this as intrinsically a proxy

11:43

conflict. Um, the drivers

11:45

of it are domestic or local at the

11:47

national level. Um, but

11:49

I think what we're seeing is , uh,

11:52

impacts and of a prolonged

11:54

crisis in multilateral diplomacy.

11:58

Uh, the men's group, which mediates in this conflict

12:00

of the OSC do organizational security incorporation

12:02

in Europe that was founded in the nineties

12:04

in the unipolar moment in a U S led

12:07

global order for the last 15

12:09

years. That order has been seeding ground

12:12

, uh , to a new kind of multipolarity.

12:14

And I think what we might be seeing , uh,

12:16

is the shift multinational diplomacy

12:19

to , uh , kind of what you might call a multi-polar

12:22

opportunism Turkey, seeing an opportunity

12:24

here , uh, it's engaged

12:27

, uh , it's had a lot of battle experience , uh

12:29

, in Syria and Libya and so on

12:31

in recent years , um, it has a

12:33

very active defense industry looking for new markets

12:35

, uh , to demonstrate its goods and

12:37

, uh, supporting

12:40

us by downplay as well , uh , for

12:42

domestic legitimacy. And it may

12:44

be that what we're seeing is the emergence or

12:46

the embedding of this conflict into

12:48

one of a number of regional theaters , uh

12:51

, where Russia and Turkey will be confronting one

12:53

another, regulating their relations

12:55

at bargaining and negotiating trade offs . A

12:58

key implication of that is that Armenia

13:00

and Azerbaijan themselves will have less influence

13:02

over outcomes than they used

13:05

to have potentially under

13:07

the OCE multilateral diplomatic

13:10

model. Now you could argue if you were Azerbaijani

13:13

that that model hasn't delivered anything

13:16

that's , uh , and that's true from an

13:18

Azerbaijani perspective. So, you know , I think there's

13:20

conflict is now suspended between these different

13:22

models , uh, of diplomacy

13:25

and multipolarity , uh , with very uncertain

13:27

outcomes.

13:28

Well, so, so that's worrisome because I

13:30

mean, you're building a bridge towards saying

13:32

that America as a world

13:35

leader has, has

13:36

Kind of like

13:38

I left the neighborhood. Uh,

13:41

and then now you have regional powers that

13:43

suddenly see opportunity

13:45

and gaps that they can, they can fill. And

13:48

this is geopolitical, just not in that area,

13:50

but, you know, throughout the caucuses and elsewhere.

13:54

Yeah. I mean, I think we are seeing a

13:57

new phase of geo for the digitization

13:59

of this conflict. Uh, you know, I,

14:02

I argued in my book

14:04

that one of the interesting things about

14:06

this conflict is that the parties have not

14:09

been able to really , uh,

14:11

frame their agendas in ways that would resonate

14:14

with outside powers. I think that that

14:16

may be changing , uh , and they may become

14:18

, um , more like proxies than

14:20

they have been , uh, to date. Um,

14:23

U S interests have

14:25

always been , uh, inconsistent,

14:28

I would say , uh , over the last 15,

14:30

20 years, the last time that the U S really injected

14:33

some political capital into this peace process was

14:35

, uh , in 2000 2001.

14:39

Um, so , uh , yes, I think it's going to be

14:41

very difficult to , uh, to

14:43

bring the parties back to the table. Uh

14:45

, there was a UN security council meeting

14:47

last night that affirmed , uh

14:49

, the Mintz group of the, as the key

14:51

EDA tree body, but so much depends,

14:54

I think, on the battlefield outcomes at the

14:56

next few days and weeks,

14:57

Is this a religious conflict as well? I mean,

15:00

we're, we're, you know, Muslims and Azerbaijan

15:03

and against the Orthodox

15:04

Christians in Armenia.

15:08

No, not at all. Um, you

15:10

know, Armenians and Azerbaijan is have far

15:12

more in common with each other

15:14

than they do with almost any other people in

15:16

the world, I would say. Uh, and

15:18

while there's, there's occasional after it's , I think

15:20

among an international audience to

15:22

kind of , um , add

15:25

a religious element to it, you know, in the U S

15:27

Armenian lobby groups will present this as kind of a

15:29

, another group of persecuted Christians in the middle

15:31

East , uh , Azerbaijan will occasionally

15:34

promote this in, in , uh,

15:36

the, the organization with the Islamic conference or

15:38

, or, or groups like that as you know

15:40

, to try to get some Muslim solidarity, but , but

15:42

that's really for an external audience internally.

15:46

Um, it's really not , uh, uh

15:48

, very salient. I mean, it should be emphasized

15:51

here that these people live together for

15:53

many centuries , uh , without any problems.

15:56

Uh, the, the conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis

15:59

is a relatively recent

16:01

, um , development in

16:03

their many centuries of, of living together.

16:06

So , uh, the , the religious

16:08

elements should not, should not be overemphasized

16:12

Stoking this and does Iran,

16:15

No Iran is almost surprisingly

16:17

passive in this given what a big

16:19

country it is, and that both of these countries are on its

16:22

border. Uh , it basically tries to keep

16:24

a good relations with both countries

16:27

, um, with Azerbaijan, its relations

16:29

are a little bit more tense because

16:31

of, as Lawrence mentioned, the , the large , uh , ethnic

16:34

Azerbaijani minority , uh, in

16:36

Iran , um , uh,

16:38

uh, but , uh, but basically Iran

16:42

tries to stay out

16:44

of it for the most part. And they do,

16:46

If I can just kind of wrap this up, where do you see

16:48

this heading? Because I mean, there have been clashes

16:50

in , in the last week. Uh, there

16:53

are people trying to mediate. Putin is

16:55

Cold for calm and Turkey has called

16:57

for calm. I don't know how soon say are sincere.

17:00

Some of those calls are, where

17:02

does it go now, Lawrence

17:04

, do you want to take this? I mean,

17:06

I, I I'd say that , uh , I mean,

17:08

we're on the , the hinge now

17:11

we're beyond a kind of a four , a

17:13

four day conflict. Um, it's

17:16

been very difficult to get a sense of how

17:18

the battle is going on the ground. Uh,

17:21

if that would be kind of rapid military

17:23

success, either through the recapture

17:26

of significance or

17:28

the successful repulsion of as a binary

17:30

operations by Armenian forces. Uh , I

17:32

think you could then have the scope for , uh,

17:35

Russia to step in and perhaps force a ceasefire.

17:38

But if it, if it becomes more protracted than

17:40

I think Moscow and Danker will be faced with difficult

17:42

choices about when and how,

17:45

and to what degree to come in and

17:48

support that process . So to

17:50

speak, as I mentioned, I think

17:52

it's going to be very difficult at this particular

17:54

moment , uh, to , uh,

17:57

to concentrate sufficient, sufficient international

17:59

attention on a diplomatic effort. So I think,

18:02

I think it's wide open. What could happen Joshua

18:05

last word to , you know , I absolutely,

18:07

I mean, we're kind of in uncharted territory and

18:10

you know, this is, this is the most serious

18:12

fighting that has happened since the early

18:14

nineties. And , um, you

18:16

know, we don't know Joshua

18:19

Jera and Tbilisi, Georgia, and Lauren's

18:22

brewers , both , uh , you know , great

18:24

to have your insight and to

18:26

bring us up to speed on this. And thank you so much.

18:29

Thank you very much. Thanks for having me.

18:32

And that's this edition , the backstory,

18:35

please subscribe to the podcast. I

18:37

think it's the best international news podcast

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. There is in terms of content and high

18:41

caliber guests. I'm Dana Lewis.

18:44

I'm a former correspondent in Jerusalem

18:46

in Moscow. I've covered half a dozen

18:48

different war zones reported out of some 55

18:51

countries support backstory,

18:54

and we'll keep bringing you stories that matter. Thanks

18:56

for listening. And I'll talk to you again soon.

19:04

[inaudible] .