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What are the Fed's chances of navigating

0:25

this just perfectly? Well,

0:26

I think they're way

0:29

under fifty percent. I'm not

0:31

sure if it's thirty five, thirty

0:33

eight, forty, not

0:35

zero. There are voices as

0:37

you know that are saying, you know, it's

0:39

came over at zero and there's no way

0:42

in hell that the Fed is gonna have a

0:44

soft landing under these

0:46

circumstances. I'm not there at all.

0:48

Hello,

0:50

and welcome to the Barron Streetwise

0:52

podcast. I'm Jack Howe. And the

0:54

voice you just heard is former Federal

0:57

Reserve vice chair Alan Blinder.

0:59

He has a new book out on the history of US

1:02

monetary policy, and he says the

1:04

Fed's job today of bringing down inflation

1:07

without breaking the economy isn't

1:09

nearly as impossible as many investors

1:12

say. We'll hear that case in a moment

1:14

and say a few words on fear surrounding

1:16

UK pension losses and struggling

1:18

credit suisse. We'll also turn

1:20

our attention from macro to micro and

1:23

third quarter earnings reports why

1:25

one analyst says the much maligned

1:28

airline industry might be better positioned

1:30

than it appears.

1:34

Listening

1:36

in is our audio producer, meta.

1:38

Hi, meta. Hi,

1:39

Jack. What do

1:40

you say we start with a listener question that

1:43

we have anyone? We

1:44

do. We've got Tim Curtain. He's

1:46

a senior at Endicott College.

1:49

Endicott College, lovely

1:51

coastal Massachusetts, Go GOLs.

1:56

That's not what y'all sound like. Meta, you know,

1:58

Endicott College is

1:59

right next door to Salem, Massachusetts, which

2:02

says that its name is synonymous

2:04

with Halloween, and I've gotta tell you that

2:07

really candies my corn. I'm

2:09

not sure I know what that even

2:11

me. You see Salem is known,

2:13

of course, for the witch trials in the seventeenth

2:16

century, but I live in the

2:18

north of Westchester County, New

2:20

York not far from sleepy hollow,

2:22

which is the setting for early American

2:24

novelist Washington Irving story

2:26

about a headless horsemen.

2:29

Sleepy hollow understandably views

2:31

itself as a bit of a Halloween headquarters

2:33

too, but it's always overshadowed by those

2:36

snooty salemers with their which

2:38

museums and trolley tours, half

2:40

million seasonal visitors, and

2:43

maybe we don't have most or

2:45

any of that And it's true that

2:47

they're not transforming the old Phillipsburg

2:49

banner this year indivorcements hollow,

2:51

but they're still the great Jackal lantern

2:54

blaze and haunted hay rod and

2:56

circus performers reenacting the headless

2:58

horsemen sort. It's right salem.

3:00

We've got circus performers. Yeah.

3:03

That's candy in your corn. It's really

3:05

carving my pumpkin. But

3:07

Tim and Endicott College didn't ask to step

3:09

into this heated Halloween controversy. He probably

3:11

just has a question about investing. Let's hear

3:13

it, Tim. I

3:14

keep hearing that the Fed is going to continue

3:17

to raise rates until something breaks.

3:19

What impact do you think this will have on

3:21

the stock market for the rest of twenty twenty

3:23

two?

3:25

Great question, Tim.

3:27

Like you, I've been seeing and hearing that

3:29

phrase everywhere.

3:31

We know that every time that the Fed

3:34

hikes, something

3:34

breaks. They're going to push it until

3:36

something breaks. The thing that everyone is aware

3:38

of when you start quantitative tightening

3:41

THINGS BREAK.

3:43

IT'S

3:43

UNCLEAR WHAT EXACTLY THESE THINGS

3:46

ARE THAT THE FED IS SAID TO BE BREAKING But

3:48

if we're talking about the stock and bond

3:50

markets ensure, both have taken a

3:52

beating from rising interest rates this

3:54

year. but

3:55

both were at fairly ordinary valuations

3:58

based on long term averages for things

3:59

like price to earnings ratios and

4:02

yields. The

4:03

bottom is not fallen out. In other words,

4:05

it's just that the starting point for prices

4:07

was high.

4:08

If by something breaking,

4:11

we mean some sort of financial laps

4:13

that infects broader markets. The

4:15

two candidates seem to be getting the most mention

4:17

are credit suisse and UK

4:19

pensions. These are long

4:21

and not especially exciting stories, but

4:23

let me see if I can turn them into short and

4:25

not especially exciting ones. Credit

4:28

Suisse has suffered a share price

4:30

collapse and trading in derivatives

4:32

markets that imply financial distress.

4:34

some investors have drawn comparisons with a period

4:37

before Lehman Brothers collapsed. But

4:39

analysts say Credit Suisse has a

4:41

comfortable capital position for now.

4:44

Its main problem seems to be a long history

4:46

of not being a particularly profitable

4:49

investment bank. It could sell its

4:51

riskiest operations and stick with safer

4:53

asset management and be much more

4:55

popular with investors, and

4:57

it might. But it also might have to

4:59

raise capital to pull off that transformation.

5:02

We'll see.

5:03

And UK pensions

5:06

are taking losses on leverage

5:08

derivatives amid a spike in

5:10

government bond yield, which sounds

5:12

complicated, but what it really boils

5:14

down to is the age old problem of

5:16

pension managers not sticking enough

5:18

cash in boring safe investments

5:21

to fund short term pension liabilities.

5:23

And instead using financial engineering,

5:26

to pretend they have enough boring stuff while

5:28

buying riskier stuff. And the engineering

5:30

has broken down. So they'll probably

5:32

have to take losses and put up cash and

5:34

reform their investing practices. But

5:37

UK bond yields at last glance

5:39

don't quite suggest chaos or

5:41

panic. So again, we'll

5:43

see. And if I notice anything

5:45

else breaking, I'll let you know. But

5:47

isn't there anyone who thinks the Fed

5:49

might not raise rates until something

5:51

breaks? Here's

5:52

someone. They

5:53

are getting criticism for

5:55

going so fast. I

5:57

think this is more than ironic because

5:59

They were

6:00

previously getting tons of

6:03

criticism deserved by the

6:05

way for starting so slow.

6:07

That's

6:07

Alan Blinder. He's an economist,

6:10

Princeton professor, and writer who

6:12

served as vice chairman of the Federal

6:14

Reserve during the mid nineteen

6:16

nineties. and he calls the current

6:18

pace of rate hikes appropriate. It

6:20

seems to me if you agree with

6:22

the criticism that you got started

6:24

too late. and you're behind the curve

6:26

and inflation is way too

6:28

high. You wanna get up to

6:30

a higher interest rate quickly,

6:33

much more quickly than the Fed normally

6:36

does. That does raise the question

6:38

of how far and can you take it

6:40

too far and you can. But I'm not

6:42

worried about that yet.

6:45

As

6:45

you heard at the beginning of this episode,

6:47

Alan puts the odds of a so called

6:49

soft landing for the Fed at well

6:51

below fifty percent, but also well

6:53

above zero. Maybe a percentage

6:55

in the thirties give or take. It

6:57

will

6:57

take a lot of skill and some

6:59

good luck. For example,

7:02

a piece of good luck that they'll need

7:04

is that this latest OPEC agreement

7:07

not be not really cut

7:09

back oil production that

7:11

much and not drive up oil prices

7:14

that much. So

7:15

we'll need a bit of luck. But

7:16

what makes Alan more hopeful than

7:19

those something's about the brave people?

7:22

One thing is a careful study of history.

7:25

Alan has a new bookout called a monetary

7:27

and physical history of the United States,

7:29

nineteen sixty one to two thousand twenty

7:32

one. And one of the episodes he

7:34

recounts in the book is, of course,

7:36

former Fed Chair, Paul Volker's

7:38

fight against high inflation starting the

7:40

late nineteen seventies. I

7:42

was seven years old at the time. And

7:44

as I described it in a recent Barron's

7:46

column, he raised rates so aggressively that

7:48

I almost Benjamin buttoned back

7:50

to six. bond

7:52

prices plunged. The jump

7:54

in UK government bond yields I mentioned a

7:56

few minutes ago involved thirty year issues

7:59

hitting five percent yields. But starting

8:01

in the late nineteen seventies, the

8:03

thirty year US treasury yield

8:05

went from ten percent to fifteen

8:07

percent in under two years.

8:11

Housing and car demand got hit

8:13

hard. Unemployment rates for

8:15

builders and auto factory workers

8:17

went on to top twenty percent.

8:20

But inflation was brought under control.

8:22

And after three years of on and off

8:24

recession, the US enjoyed

8:27

eight years of uninterrupted growth.

8:30

Two things are very different now.

8:32

First, the job that current

8:34

Fed Chair Powell is

8:36

facing isn't as difficult as the one that

8:38

faced Paul Volker. Here's

8:40

Alan. A mistreating

8:41

of his history is that poll Volker

8:43

brought inflation down from thirteen

8:46

percent to three percent or something

8:48

like that. A proper

8:50

reading of history, and this is

8:52

recounted in some detail in my book

8:54

is that he brought core inflation.

8:56

That's without food and energy

8:58

because after all the Fed can't do

9:00

much about those, down

9:03

from about ten percent to about

9:05

four percent. That's still a

9:07

big achievement. It's six

9:09

percentage points. Jay Powell doesn't have to bring the

9:11

inflation rate down by six percentage

9:13

points. He has to bring it

9:15

down by about two percentage

9:17

points. and the end of the

9:19

food and oil shocks and

9:21

the dissipation of the supply

9:24

bottlenecks will do the rest. That's

9:26

a job, but nothing like what Paul Volker

9:28

had.

9:29

Alan points out that many investors track

9:31

inflation using the consumer

9:33

price Index. A fresh rating there this

9:35

past week puts prices up eight

9:37

point two percent over the year through

9:39

September, which is obviously a

9:41

lot. But the Fed tracks a different

9:44

measure called the core personal

9:46

consumption expenditures price

9:48

index, which ignores food and energy

9:50

prices because those are volatile and

9:52

not necessarily under the Fed's

9:54

control. You might agree or

9:56

disagree with the Fed's reasoning on

9:58

that. but the latest core

10:00

PCE reading is much lower than

10:02

CPI, four point

10:04

nine percent during the year through

10:06

August. That's why Alan says

10:08

the Fed only has to bring inflation down

10:10

by a couple of points and that market

10:12

forces will do the rest with some

10:14

luck in the form of OPEC not

10:16

cutting oil production as much as feared.

10:18

The other reason that today doesn't

10:20

entirely resemble the Volker Air

10:22

is that starting economic conditions

10:25

are better. Here's our.

10:27

When

10:27

people talk about that, they often

10:30

forget that this episode's started

10:33

with unemployment

10:35

rate of about three and a half,

10:38

about five hundred thousand

10:40

jobs per month being created.

10:42

You can come down from

10:44

those numbers quite a bit

10:46

while up on the unemployment, down on the

10:48

job creation, without

10:50

causing a tremendous amount of

10:52

economic hardship. There's always

10:54

some, and Powell has said there's

10:56

going to be some

10:58

pain. But, you know, to

11:00

put a seriously accurate number on

11:02

that, if we never get above

11:04

four and a half percent unemployment,

11:07

in this episode. I'm not saying

11:09

that'll happen. But if that happens,

11:11

I think we'll look back on it and say

11:13

it was a pretty soft landing.

11:15

Thanks, Alan. And for Tim from Endicott

11:18

University, I have tried to

11:20

answer a question about whether

11:22

something big might break, but that wasn't quite your

11:24

question. Your question was,

11:26

what effect will the possibility of

11:28

something breaking have on the stock market

11:30

for the rest of two thousand and twenty

11:32

two. And that one is much easier

11:34

at least for me. I don't know.

11:36

I've never

11:38

seen a reliable way to act clearly predict

11:40

the short term direction or magnitude

11:43

of stock market movements, and I'm

11:45

pretty sure there isn't one.

11:47

That's one reason that stocks do so well over

11:49

long time periods. You get rewarded

11:51

for the risk you take over short

11:53

time periods. If you want me to

11:55

guess even though I can't possibly guess

11:57

accurately. I guess that stocks are going

11:59

up. But just know that I always

12:01

guess that because stocks rise more often

12:03

than they fall. If you plan

12:05

to spend your money by the end of this

12:08

year, you shouldn't put it in stocks.

12:10

Keep it in cash. If you're

12:12

asking because you wanna know whether it's time to

12:14

buy and you plan to hold for decades,

12:16

then yes. I think it's a good time to

12:18

buy. And on that one, I'm more confident.

12:20

And if you plan to keep buying

12:22

over your career, then I recommend that

12:24

you buy now. Quietly hope that

12:26

everything falls and stays low so that you

12:28

can keep buying cheaply. just

12:30

don't celebrate out loud because us

12:32

older savers are likely to be

12:34

cranky about the declines. But so long

12:36

as we're reasonably diversified in

12:39

stocks for the long run and not doing any

12:41

liability masquerading like those pension

12:43

advisers, we should do fine

12:45

too. And

12:48

now I am macroed

12:50

out. Let's talk micro.

12:53

Company earning and airlines. That's

12:55

next after this quick break.

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13:26

Welcome back enough about inflation

13:28

now and central banks and currency

13:30

swings. I wanna hear about how

13:32

nerve blasters are selling and big

13:34

macs, and house paint, and pickup

13:36

trucks, and gas turbines, and credit

13:38

card accounts, even cigarettes

13:40

and missiles, and especially those big

13:42

fancy machines that etch the

13:44

silicon wafers that make the chips,

13:46

the power of the computers that from what I

13:48

hear not many of us are buying

13:50

right now. and learn

13:52

about all of that and more over the next

13:54

three weeks when the bulk of

13:56

big US companies report

13:58

quarterly earnings. which will be

14:00

influenced by, okay, inflation and

14:02

central banks and currency

14:04

swings fine. Just give me a few weeks

14:06

to focus on actual commerce.

14:08

Who's selling what to whom

14:11

marked up by how much. And at

14:13

a glance, based on estimates, I'd

14:15

say the state of commerce has

14:17

been better. by

14:20

no means a disaster. Revenues for

14:22

the third quarter reporting season are

14:24

expected to rise by close to

14:26

ten per sent versus a year ago, so we're

14:28

still spending. But much of that

14:30

increase is just inflation being

14:32

passed along to customers. Earnings

14:35

are expected to grow by less than

14:37

three percent. That compares with

14:39

growth of nearly eight percent the quarter

14:41

before and ten percent the quarter

14:43

before that. Two things that

14:45

almost always happen around reporting time

14:47

is that analysts take down

14:49

estimates for months beforehand. and

14:51

then companies triumphantly announced that they've

14:53

beaten those lowered estimates.

14:55

This time around, the estimate

14:57

decline heading into reporting season

14:59

has been about twice as large as

15:01

usual. So will companies

15:03

still report upside surprises?

15:05

Of course, they will.

15:09

The single worst quarter for

15:11

surprises and more than a quarter

15:13

century of data came

15:15

during the global financial crisis when

15:18

companies missed estimates by

15:20

one tenth of one percent.

15:22

So Wall Street has gotten

15:24

quite good at not guessing too

15:26

high. In fact, It's reasonable to assume

15:28

that earnings will come in a couple of points

15:30

above expectations if you can still

15:32

call them expectations when

15:34

ever everyone expects them to be exceeded.

15:36

So a five percent overall

15:38

growth rate is by no means out of

15:40

the question. Energy companies will

15:42

report much better growth than that, and

15:44

banks on the whole are likely to

15:46

report declines led by

15:48

their investment activities. One of the weakest

15:51

performers believe it or not could be

15:53

big tech. We've all come to

15:55

expect rapturous growth from Apple,

15:57

Micro soft alphabet and

15:59

others and good

15:59

times and bad, but those

16:01

three are expected to report minimal

16:04

earnings growth and Amazon

16:06

and Facebook now called meta could

16:08

report big declines. There

16:10

are a variety of reasons, but a big one

16:12

is that we splurged on tech a

16:14

year ago, which makes comparisons

16:16

difficult. And some

16:18

companies like Facebook are also spending a lot

16:20

to try to find new ways to grow.

16:23

Now, let's take a look at one group

16:25

that'll report soon and it

16:27

might be the opposite of big tech

16:29

in terms of popularity. Sometimes

16:31

I feel like there are more self side analysts covering

16:33

airlines than there are investors

16:34

in airlines. That's

16:38

Helane Baker. She's an airline

16:40

analyst at Cowen and Company, I spoke

16:42

with her recently about travel trends

16:44

and the group's deep unpopularity

16:47

with investors. One index

16:49

of airline stocks is down forty

16:51

three percent over the past

16:53

year versus a seventeen percent

16:55

decline for a broad US

16:57

stock index covering all industries. Valuations

17:00

for airline stocks look exceptionally

17:02

low. If we look at estimates for

17:04

next year, most big airlines trade

17:06

under ten times earnings. If we look further out

17:08

to forecast for two thousand twenty

17:11

four when conditions will be closer to

17:13

whatever normal is, many of the

17:15

shares go for five times

17:17

earnings or less. Maybe those

17:19

estimates will prove too high,

17:21

but valuations like that also give

17:23

a lot of room for error. I

17:26

am anything but an airline bull.

17:28

I'm well aware of the group's long standing

17:31

reputation for swinging from modest profits

17:33

during good times to deep losses

17:35

during bad times, including some

17:37

high profile bankruptcies and bailouts

17:39

in decades past, during times of financial

17:42

stress. Also, airlines

17:44

use complicated machines and labor,

17:46

both of which are hard to get right

17:48

now. and loads of fuel, which is expensive.

17:51

And for consumers, the

17:53

experience often stinks.

17:55

At the end of summer, I took

17:58

my family on a big theme park trip

17:59

to Orlando. Prices were

18:02

way up, but I went all out because we

18:04

hadn't taken a long distance trip

18:06

since the pandemic. On the way

18:08

down, the flight was canceled

18:10

last minute, so we missed the day of

18:12

the parks. After a long wait on

18:14

hold, a phone rep told me that it was due

18:16

to weather, so the airline didn't owe me

18:18

anything. But the gate rep at the

18:20

airport said it was actually due

18:22

to a broken clasp on an overhead

18:24

baggage compartment and that the airline didn't

18:26

have the part it needed on

18:28

hand. I won't say which airline, but let's

18:30

just say it's big in New

18:32

York. Days later, I got an email

18:34

apology with a credit for

18:36

fifty dollars. For all four of us,

18:38

good toward a future flight. Even

18:41

when things go smoothly, I find

18:43

air travel including shuffling through airports

18:45

and security lines unpleasant

18:48

these days I recently wrote in a column that airline travelers

18:50

come to resemble a porta potty

18:52

visit, sometimes necessary,

18:54

but never good. Maybe

18:57

I took a little poetic license there,

18:59

but bottom line, I'm

19:01

vacationing closer to home for a

19:03

while. I mean, technically,

19:05

I flights booked to South Florida next week and Europe down the

19:07

road, but that's for business. Usually

19:09

reporting or talking to rich people about

19:11

what other rich people are saying about getting

19:14

richer. My employer pays for

19:16

that. Did I say porta potty? I meant,

19:18

I'm happy to help.

19:20

Anyhow,

19:20

I asked Helane

19:21

at Cowen, is the airline

19:23

business as weak as stock valuation

19:26

suggests? It doesn't seem

19:28

so. Some

19:28

parts of the market roared back since Labor Day.

19:31

After Labor Day, there seemed to be

19:32

a sea change in coastal

19:35

markets, especially in New York

19:37

and Boston, in

19:38

San Francisco and LA, where we saw

19:40

a return to office and

19:42

we saw a big increase in

19:45

international. that

19:46

started really in mid June

19:48

and continues

19:49

to this day

19:51

and which is surprising. Normally, you would see

19:53

a big drop off in international, September, October, and

19:55

we haven't seen that. Helane

19:57

says the

19:57

travel demand is shifting from domestic

19:59

leisure toward business and

20:02

international flights, which can be lucrative for

20:05

airlines. And

20:06

the shift in mix has

20:08

interesting

20:09

implication for what the airlines are gonna think

20:11

about going into twenty twenty three. So

20:13

I think the things you're gonna see them talk

20:15

about on the revenue side of the equation

20:18

is the shift where some business

20:20

travel is coming back. International is

20:22

definitely roaring back. It's mostly

20:24

Transatlantic, Caribbean, Mexico,

20:26

Central and South America. Travel between

20:28

the US and China is particularly

20:31

weak and could stay weak on trade

20:33

tensions. But Helane points to the

20:35

experience of United Airlines, which used to

20:37

view China as a growth driver

20:39

and lately has added flights to popular

20:41

destinations like Malaga,

20:43

Spain. Meta,

20:44

better Malaga.

20:45

right Right? What do you

20:46

say? Malaga.

20:48

I found a pronounceer.

20:52

I'm supposed to say

20:55

it's slow like that. Right. Popular

20:58

destinations like

21:00

Now

21:02

for domestic travel, Helane

21:04

is concerned about the impact of

21:06

high prices. She gave an example of a

21:08

family of four trying to visit Orlando

21:10

on four thousand and dollars. And

21:12

then they

21:13

go online and they see it's five hundred dollars

21:15

a person to travel there. So

21:17

that's half the budget. Then when they get there,

21:19

they have to stay in a hotel or an Airbnb

21:21

or something, maybe they can do it

21:24

for seven, eight hundred dollars. And

21:27

then they have to rent a and rental cars

21:29

are really expensive. So maybe it's another seven

21:31

hundred, dollars eight hundred. dollars And

21:34

now we've used thirty

21:36

five, thirty six hundred dollars of our four

21:38

thousand dollars vacation budget, and we

21:40

haven't even set foot into the magic

21:42

kingdom yet. And So

21:44

people just go, that's it. I'm

21:46

opting out and we're driving. And

21:48

we can take the dog and we don't have

21:50

to pay for seat assignments to get us all

21:52

together and we don't have to, you

21:54

know,

21:54

whatever. Some of those details sound

21:57

familiar except we spent a lot more

21:59

on lodging because we stayed at the

22:01

theme park place and you should see what they

22:03

get for rooms now, including at

22:05

the hotel we like where you can see

22:07

giraffes and zebra's your balcony. Also,

22:09

we'd never make that drive because one

22:11

of the dogs is way too hairy and

22:13

sheds a lot, and both of

22:15

of kids seemed to have turned a bit feral during

22:17

the pandemic from too much screen time, so

22:19

now they argue a lot. But the

22:22

point is that inflation everywhere, not

22:24

just for flights, could cut into

22:26

leisure demand. I thought you said that the kids

22:28

turned out a bit furry during.

22:31

That's so far, not

22:34

yet.

22:34

Now, we

22:36

don't have time to cover

22:38

pilot shortages and production delays

22:40

that aircraft may manufacturers, but

22:43

just know that Helane says that

22:45

supply for airlines remains

22:47

constrained, and that might be

22:49

good for investors. So

22:50

theoretically, the airlines

22:53

are the market's already completely

22:56

discounting. Recession and

22:58

bad news for the airlines. They

23:00

historically disappoint because they

23:02

buy aircraft at the top of the market and take

23:04

delivery in a recession or at the bottom of the

23:06

market. And this time, they can't do

23:08

that because they can't get the planes and

23:10

they don't have the

23:10

people. I asked Helane whether

23:13

investors should buy airlines here, and

23:15

she said yes. At the time of our

23:17

conversation, she had positive recommendations

23:19

on United Airlines ticker UAL,

23:22

Sun Country Airlines, SNCY,

23:26

Southwest Airlines, LUV, and

23:28

Alaska Air Group, ALK.

23:30

And then this past week, Delta

23:33

reported quarterly results, including

23:35

record revenue, believe it or not. continued

23:37

shift toward business and international.

23:40

Shares rose four percent. Helane

23:42

upgraded them to outperform. Her

23:44

price target implies more than seventy five percent

23:47

upside from here. Other airlines

23:49

report in the days and weeks ahead,

23:51

Let's see whether they show similar strength and

23:53

whether investors come around

23:55

to the shares.

23:59

Thank you, Helane, and thanks again to

24:01

Allan and Tim. Thank you all for listening.

24:03

If you want to ask a question on the

24:05

podcast like our friend Tim, just tape one

24:07

on your phone using voice memo

24:09

app and email it to jack dot

24:12

how at barons dot com.

24:14

meta loot soft is our producer,

24:16

Jackson's getting married right now. meta, what do you

24:18

think Jackson's inward this moment.

24:20

He's handing the

24:23

ring. I was gonna say

24:24

dancing to cool in the gang, but it could be either

24:26

one. See you next

24:27

week.

24:34

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24:34

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