0:03

Wednesday morning, January seventeenth, twenty

0:06

twenty four.

0:06

It's the Beating the.

0:07

Book Podcast Divisional

0:09

Round the Megapot Gil Alexander

0:13

Ah. Not a great wildcard week

0:15

for me, but we do have a guest

0:17

on who had a spectacular wildcard weekend.

0:19

We will get to him momentarily.

0:21

The streets are a buzzin' with his appearance. That's what

0:23

he told me the other day. First the staples

0:25

of the show from his mom's cork Attic.

0:27

In Pittsburgh, Pa. Todd wish

0:30

to have everybody.

0:30

How you doing, Totty, I'm doing

0:33

terrible, Gilly. Last week when

0:35

I saw you, I was coming off a thirteen and four college

0:37

basketball night, up forty seven units on the

0:39

year, and now I've just dunked

0:41

away about twenty one units

0:44

in the week on just bad beat

0:46

after bad beat. So I'm in a real bad mood

0:48

today.

0:48

Oh that's fun. That explains. Yeah.

0:51

We were just talking off air about how I

0:53

had about my numbers in tennis, that I was talking about

0:55

this on a numbers game this morning. Had seven

0:58

dogs over the last two nights that actually

1:00

ended up getting home. That I that my numbers told me I should

1:02

have been on. I didn't bet on any of them, not on

1:04

one of them. By

1:06

the way, this also will not be

1:08

relevant to this podcast for people listening, but this Warriors

1:11

news is pretty amazing. This

1:13

assistant coach had some kind of cardiac

1:15

arrest. I don't know if that's

1:17

the correct term, some sort of medical event. Let's

1:19

put it that way. Warriors Jazz postponed

1:22

tonight. If you're listening to this on Wednesday.

1:25

Will Hill is our other staple. He comes to

1:27

us from parts unknown? Where are you

1:29

in Connecticut?

1:29

Will? Is that where you live? New York? Where do you live?

1:31

For God's sakes, I am in Connecticut.

1:33

You know.

1:33

It's funny.

1:34

We were I was on a numbers game earlier,

1:36

and between breaks we were doing the Tony

1:39

Romo voice. And after the spot, my wife

1:41

was, what was going on in there? What were you yelling

1:43

about? Happy

1:46

to be on with you, Jim.

1:48

I think that's an interception, Jim, No, I

1:50

think it hit the ground.

1:51

Tony.

1:51

I thought it was an interception, Jim.

1:54

We were talking about Tony Romo as a broadcast has

1:57

gone from this sensation to just

1:59

absolute suckitude over

2:01

the course of his Color career.

2:04

It's fascinating how that's happened. But you have

2:06

the best theory of all will, which is he's just

2:08

farther away from the game netwhere he can't anticipate

2:10

what is going to happen on a play by play basis.

2:12

I think that's true.

2:14

Yeah, when he first started broadcasting, he was pretty

2:16

fresh from the field. It wasn't that long ago that he played.

2:19

I think he went right from playing to broadcasting. There was

2:21

no year off, and he knew all these teams,

2:23

tendencies, these patterns, and he was able to

2:25

call out the plays and just point

2:27

out things that other broadcasters weren't aware

2:29

of. And then he got a huge contract. I don't know if the

2:31

money just made him a little

2:34

more. I don't know lacks a days ago in his prep or

2:36

just the time away, but he is certainly not this

2:38

just elite clear

2:40

far and away best broadcaster that he was when he first

2:43

started.

2:43

Yeah.

2:44

Yeah, he sure likes to say Jim though, doesn't he And

2:47

our guests on the show, we always like to

2:49

take our favorite regular season guests,

2:52

no knock on anybody else, but put them

2:54

in the playoffs. And this guy always has a spot

2:57

in the playoff rotation. As he does in all the tennis

3:00

odds.

3:01

Drew didsick.

3:01

Everybody will underscore Kapper d Dive

3:04

podcast, which he does with his buddy Andy Molitor,

3:06

DINSI Classic as I like to call it, and then

3:08

of course NBC Sports Bet the Edge the new

3:10

Dinsik.

3:11

The formula appears to be working. How you doing, Drew.

3:15

I'm doing well.

3:15

Thank you as always, always appreciate

3:18

the invite. Great to see you, guys, appreciate

3:20

you having me on. And yeah,

3:23

seven games left, guys, seven games

3:25

left, very close to the finish line,

3:28

and basically every combination of AFCNFC

3:32

and Super Bowl at this point has

3:34

some interest.

3:35

So we are blessed.

3:37

Let me just say I introed you by saying you had

3:39

a great weekend. You did, You

3:42

came into the weekend at least on the sides. I

3:44

remember you said all of the

3:46

dogs except for Miami, So

3:49

by that that means you went five

3:51

and one, I believe, if my if my count

3:54

is correct, yes, five and one.

3:55

Yeah, I had five and one, and then I had

3:57

some exotics a particular

4:00

I had dog round Robin, money line

4:02

plus Casey and if

4:04

the Rams managed to kick

4:06

a field goal to win that twenty six,

4:08

twenty four, or if they score a touchdown on that drive

4:11

where they were just moving the ball with impunity and

4:13

pull out a win against the Lions,

4:17

it would have been a banner day. Obviously,

4:19

the Steelers never had a chance once they moved

4:21

the game. But yeah, it was a great wildcard

4:23

weekend. And ultimately I

4:26

am not like feeling like there are

4:28

massive edges for this divisional round, but there

4:30

are definitely.

4:32

I played all four sides.

4:33

Oh you did okay, good?

4:35

See, all right, well.

4:36

We'll get to that. You're right about Pittsburgh.

4:37

We had that very strange circumstance where the

4:40

Bill Steelers game obviously got postponed.

4:42

We learned about that Saturday morning that it

4:44

would go from Sunday morning in the Lake Effect

4:47

blizzard to Monday. And so those

4:49

of us who had Pittsburgh plus ten, I know

4:51

you had some sprinkle on the money line too, Drew where

4:53

it was like, well, if you're at a book where you're still

4:55

stuck with his bet, you are stuck with a bet, and

4:57

so it wasn't really part of the original

5:00

handicap, So that was

5:02

unfortunate. Almost got there still

5:04

though it was a Mason Rudolph

5:06

pick at the goal line, and you know before that

5:08

a turnover by Pickings that set

5:10

up the Bills with a one play touchdown

5:13

after that, So you know, could have gone differently

5:15

for sure. I want to just ask you because you brought up the Rams

5:17

thing at the end before we get into this week.

5:20

That so the Rams and the uh,

5:23

the Rams and the Lions. The

5:27

Lions are winning by one point

5:30

was the eventual final score twenty four to twenty

5:32

three, and it's

5:34

third and excuse me, it's there's a penalty

5:37

as the Rams are matriculating. They have one

5:39

time out left at this point because McVeigh and company

5:41

of course wasted two, so they only

5:43

have one time out left, and

5:46

there's a penalty on the on the Rams,

5:49

and Dan Campbell has a choice. He either

5:51

declines the penalty and gives them a fourth and four,

5:54

where Brett Maher would have to attempt roughly

5:56

a fifty two yard field goal, or he takes the penalty

5:59

and he puts him in the third and fourteen, out of field

6:01

goal range, and plays it from there.

6:03

He opted to take the penalty.

6:04

It worked out because then Stafford to Kua

6:07

Nicouah probably got held probably got interfered

6:09

with probably was a late hit. None of them were called, and

6:12

then Sean McVay stupidly, with

6:14

one time out left punts it. They

6:17

never see the ball again, which you don't do with

6:19

one time out left. Maybe you do it with three, but you don't

6:21

do with one. Would

6:23

you have done what Dan Campbell did in that moment? Would

6:25

you have declined that penalty?

6:27

Drew? Do you remember what your feelings were at that moment?

6:29

I know I would have accepted

6:31

the penalty.

6:32

He two.

6:34

I would have accept it because yeah, like

6:37

I mean, yeah, you're you're you're teasing, you're

6:39

you're you're teasing McVeigh

6:41

to. You're

6:44

teasing McVeigh to to trot Brett Maher out

6:46

there for what would all would have been a comically poor

6:48

attempt.

6:49

I assume yes.

6:51

But but at the same time, like,

6:53

if McVeigh really is rationally

6:56

in his head, which he wasn't for a lot of that game,

6:59

if he was thinking rationally, he goes

7:01

for on fourth and four, and if I'm Dan Campbell,

7:03

I'm not feeling super about my defensive

7:05

chances to stop him, because the worst

7:07

case for Dan Campbell is that they convert fourth and

7:09

four. Uh, and then they drive and wipe

7:11

out the last four minutes of the game and kick a field which

7:14

was very, very very live. I thought with

7:16

the way that that you know, Detroit defense

7:18

was leaking the funkier

7:21

aspect that I had. And this

7:23

was somebody on Twitter who pointed this out. I

7:25

wish I could give credit, but the

7:28

most the optimal strategy for McVeigh

7:30

four and fourteen.

7:31

Yeah, I was good not punting.

7:33

It was kneeling at the nine and a half as his own nine and

7:36

a half, have your have your

7:38

your you know, take the snap, take

7:40

it back to your own nine and a half, and take a knee

7:42

because that way, worst case scenario,

7:44

you give up a touchdown in your down eight.

7:46

Best case scenario, they.

7:48

Have to kick a field goal at some point you're down four,

7:50

you get the ball.

7:50

Back with like three minutes off.

7:52

Yes, like there's there's a there's definitely

7:55

you know, the the the he he made the kind

7:57

of the only choice where he

8:00

was never going to see the ball again, which I hate when

8:02

that happens. That's like, that's what the versus did.

8:04

That's what mattla flore did in the NFC

8:07

Championship Game. A couple years ago against the uh the

8:10

Bucks when they were down eight and instead of going

8:12

with Rogers on fourth and fourth

8:14

and whatever, it was fourth and goal, they

8:17

kicked the field goal to make an eight point game a five

8:19

point game. And it was like, Okay, you made the

8:21

one decision where you're not you

8:23

know, there's a realistic chance you're never seeing the

8:25

ball again, and like, I don't know why

8:27

coaches do that.

8:29

You.

8:29

I'm glad you're here because you have.

8:31

You have corrected me on two of my instincts, because

8:33

you're right, I would have the

8:36

original situation. I would have declined

8:39

the penalty, assuming that McVeigh

8:41

would have trotted Maher out

8:43

there to kick, as you said, what I think would

8:45

have been a comically a comical attempt. But

8:48

you're right, he might have snapped into it

8:50

and been like, oh, I'm gonna go for it a fourth and four. So I was

8:52

wrong about that. You're right because he could have done that. And

8:54

the other part is that was the optimal strategy, because

8:56

I was thinking, after they had already given the ball up,

8:59

after they failed to convert that

9:01

then they would just go, hey, score from sixty

9:03

some yards out. But obviously that's that's

9:05

much more of a variable than actually taking it back

9:07

yourself to the nine and a half and

9:10

forcing some kind of outcome where

9:12

there would still be time left on the clock.

9:15

Yeah, but then you forced to get a touchdown

9:17

rather than a field goal. Also, right,

9:21

if you got to stop, if you so,

9:23

let's say, yeah, fourth and fourteen, you go for

9:25

it, you don't make it. Now they have the ball

9:28

around midfield and you get a stop.

9:30

Now they punt you down to your own ten. You've

9:32

got to get into field goal range to win the game.

9:35

Whereas the other case of taking it at your

9:37

own nine and a half, you're going to be down at least four, possibly

9:40

eight, and you're going to need a touchdown

9:42

with theoretically more time, So you

9:45

know, half a dozen and one to six of that. I don't think it's

9:47

so clear that that's the best.

9:48

But they were getting the fresh set of downs.

9:51

What's etch you are getting the

9:53

fresh set of downs? I do like Drew strategy.

9:56

Yeah, I like Drew strategy. For nothing

9:58

else to hear to witness the announce was

10:00

trying to figure out what was going on

10:03

in the UH in.

10:04

All the BOP implications.

10:05

Imagine you got a running back and you're cashing your ticket and

10:08

the running back just takes it, you know, minus seventy

10:10

yards.

10:10

What the hell just happened?

10:11

What the hell does happened? That's right, by the way,

10:14

Okay, I'm sorry.

10:15

I lied.

10:15

One more thing? Have you do you feel

10:18

like?

10:18

And now all the games are blurring together, so I

10:20

can't remember each instance where this occurred

10:22

to me this weekend. But this is,

10:25

like you would think after all this time, because

10:27

this is all the ship we talk about every day,

10:29

either on podcast or radio, all

10:32

these little optimal strategies that these

10:34

coaches can do, and all the little nuances.

10:36

And I feel like these mainstream announcers

10:39

none of them ever get it in the moment,

10:41

none of them.

10:43

I can't think of anybody who does. They watched

10:46

they watched one game.

10:47

A week, yeah, watched

10:50

the whole season, all

10:52

right.

10:52

Well, they didn't play mad in his kids.

10:55

They didn't play Madden either, that's right. Yeah,

10:58

But I didn't play Madden that much as you kids

11:00

did either.

11:00

But I'm just still watching them.

11:02

They don't watch watch.

11:03

Him, see, they don't see enough scenarios.

11:05

That's that's all it is.

11:06

Well, that applies to your coaches thing not getting

11:08

like time management stuff too. They just watch

11:10

their x's and o's every week and they don't watch enough

11:13

football games.

11:14

You're never gonna see it.

11:15

Like everybody knocks Campbell

11:18

and look, he's all over the map. Campbell's aggressiveness.

11:20

One in that game, fourth and goal from the two, he went for it,

11:22

got a touchdown. That's seven instead of three

11:24

in a one point game. And at the end of the game

11:26

when the Rams had only one time out

11:28

at the two minute warning. A lot of teams will just run

11:30

it twice hope to get a first down, milk all

11:33

the clock. He came out second down, boom, threw

11:35

it game over. His aggressiveness really

11:37

won in the game. And McVeigh at the end of the first half was very

11:39

conservative. I know they didn't have a good field position, but man,

11:41

he just got his one first down and just put his tail between

11:44

his legs and took it to the half where they had the

11:46

double dip there, they had the middle eight and they

11:48

were moving the ball.

11:49

Well.

11:49

He look, he could say it was the right move to

11:52

to just take it into half, but he was very conservative.

11:54

I watched that go

11:56

ahead, Chuck.

11:57

I'm sorry, ahead I was gonna say, he

11:59

also knew he has Brett Maher as his kicker.

12:01

So if he's driving in with fifty seconds

12:04

left from his own ten yard line, even if

12:06

he gets into long field goal range,

12:08

you know it might be not even worth the risk

12:10

because of the kicker.

12:12

I feel like my whole stance on McVeigh

12:14

all year was so corroborated

12:16

by that game, though, where I was like, I've been

12:18

written about this dude all year, and

12:21

finally everybody gets to see how poor of

12:23

a play caller is he is.

12:24

Inside the red zone.

12:26

How Like going to cup incessantly

12:28

was never an optimal strategy this year.

12:31

I just feel I feel vindicated.

12:33

God damnit, I just want to point that out, all

12:35

right?

12:35

Should I give you the record from last week? Gilly?

12:37

Not really, I don't really want you to do that, but go ahead.

12:39

Okay, I'll give me no problem.

12:42

So Gilly with Philly and Pittsburgh,

12:45

we'll give him a pass on the pit Berg. But oh

12:48

and two there and you all. Everybody, by

12:50

the way, lost their teasers except for the teaser wizard

12:52

myself. Everybody had Dallas

12:55

if you remember correctly, biggest

12:57

they

13:01

where he had the bill, so I was able to

13:04

win easier. Willy went

13:06

one and one with the Chiefs in Pittsburgh. I went

13:08

to and OH with the Packers, the Green Bay

13:11

Packers and the Rams

13:13

and our guest Eric Eager also went to and O with

13:15

under forty four Kansas City and

13:17

plus three in Rams. But everybody went oh and

13:19

went on teasers and I went one and oh.

13:21

So listen, I'm exhausted from

13:24

my great regular season. I don't have enough time for this

13:26

playoffs anymore. I got tennis

13:28

to handy Cap. I can't keep.

13:29

Going Gil Alexander,

13:32

the Dallas Cowboys.

13:33

Yeah, I was just I

13:37

have the Dallas Cowboys and rugn Ozagators.

13:39

That's it. I'm out. I'm out of juice. Can't

13:41

do it anymore.

13:42

All right, Tod, was there anything in game from last

13:44

week you wanted to point out?

13:45

Nothing?

13:47

I mean there was. There was a lot of stuff that

13:49

was craziness the I guess the

13:52

one thing that I

13:54

was most disappointed about was the Houston.

13:57

The Houston game was very high scoring in the first

13:59

half against Cleveland. I

14:01

came out with nine and a half in

14:03

the third quarter in Houston Cleveland because I

14:05

felt like, okay, I

14:07

believe if I remember correctly,

14:10

Houston, Houston was going to get the ball for it. I can't remember.

14:12

It was a perfect setup for the under. Anyways,

14:14

it was going way under if you were guys

14:16

were watching. Joe Flaco

14:19

throws a pick six, eighty two yard

14:21

pick six, and then I'm still

14:23

not dead yet because there's there's five

14:25

and a half minutes left. They still might not get

14:27

a field goal to beat me on my third quarter under.

14:30

But then he throws another pick six

14:32

on the next strap. I'm not sure

14:34

I've seen two pick sixes in

14:38

succession like that, and drive after

14:40

drive, and I've watched a lot of NFL football.

14:43

I'm sure it's happened, but it doesn't happen

14:45

very often. It's hard to lose under nine

14:47

and a half in the third quarter with no offensive

14:49

points. But I found a way.

14:51

That was the only game I got right all weekend. Wasn't one of

14:53

my two megapop picks. That was the only thing I go right. I

14:55

just figured Flak got a stinker in him, and he did

14:57

have a stinker moment, or sure.

14:59

Did did, and Chris Filika

15:01

said we should bet the interception, which I

15:03

did, that he would throw an interception, throw an interception

15:05

every single game. And he did, in fact throw an interception

15:08

or two, that's for sure.

15:09

Wow, well let's start,

15:12

so we still do the two best bets on division week?

15:14

Is that how the Megapod constitution

15:16

puts it.

15:17

I think we could still do him because we got four games.

15:19

All right, So this is the last week of that. That's what the bylaws

15:22

say. I believe.

15:24

I believe the founding fathers did

15:27

that seventeen eighty seven.

15:28

All right.

15:29

So Drew, who comes off a week where

15:31

he was spectacular, where he said

15:33

all the underdogs except for the Dolphins

15:35

that worked out beautifully for him to the tune

15:37

of five and one. Obviously

15:40

he doesn't and it gets a pass on the Pittsburgh loss

15:42

too, So it was a really pretty much

15:45

perfection for you on that.

15:48

What do you like best this week? Sir?

15:50

So?

15:50

First of all, I know an attempt to jinx

15:52

when I hear one gil. Enough of this, Enough

15:56

of this, it's a new week.

15:58

We're on to Division round. What

16:01

happened last week is inconsequential. No,

16:05

I'm obviously kidding. The matchups

16:08

this week are all great. I think you can

16:10

pray on a number of kind of factors

16:13

with a bunch of these. My

16:15

favorite play of the week, though, is the

16:17

Detroit Lions laying these six and

16:19

a half, which is current like this is this

16:22

market is in flux. I see circas already

16:24

out to seven. I agree with that. I think this

16:26

is going to seven, and I

16:28

think the matchup advantages for the Lions

16:31

here are almost too enumerate to

16:33

list.

16:34

Out loud, so I'll just pick a couple of my favorite.

16:36

Nice For all of the reasons

16:39

that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense was successful

16:41

against the Philadelphia Eagles, they

16:43

were somewhat predictable. Actually, right, Hey,

16:46

if you blitz Jalen Hurts, he's going to struggle. You

16:48

know what Todd Bowles likes to do.

16:49

He likes the blitz. If

16:52

you look at what.

16:52

The Lions do in terms of number one, countering

16:55

the blitz and number two, the fact that

16:57

they have faced teams that are aggressive

16:59

blitz teams recently, I think

17:01

that lends to potential success here for the

17:03

Lions offense, they faced Brian

17:07

Flores twice in the final three weeks of the season.

17:09

Both in both cases, you

17:11

know, over fifty percent blitz rate. Expecting

17:14

that that is kind of because you know, Todd Bowles

17:17

does some things very very well. He is

17:19

a fastball pitcher when it comes to defensive

17:21

scheme, I would be very surprised if he has

17:24

any offspeed, you know, for this particular

17:26

matchup. And yes, if

17:28

you're blitzing Jared Goff and the

17:31

you know the Lions have outstanding

17:33

blitz pickup packages. And

17:36

just in general, you know you're you're relying

17:38

on your secondary to win one v

17:40

one against a monro Saint Brown, Reynolds,

17:43

Williams and laporta best of luck

17:45

to you. I think the Lions attack

17:48

is balanced enough that with a lead, they're

17:50

going to be able to matriculate and eat clock

17:52

in the second half here and just in

17:54

general, like I see a game state where

17:57

Lions have a multiple score lead at home in

17:59

the second can have and then all of a sudden,

18:01

this is on Baker Mayfield's arm to do something special

18:04

and I think that could link to turnover possibilities

18:07

for the Buccaneers offense against the Lions defense.

18:10

I will note that the Buccaneers pass protection

18:12

this season has been outstanding. That is largely

18:14

what I think has afforded Baker

18:17

Mayfield his kind of emergence this season

18:19

as a renewed emergence as

18:21

a you know, a go to starter

18:23

in the NFL. But there

18:26

are cracks showing. Surely they did

18:28

have issues on third down pass protection against

18:30

the Eagles, and I think

18:32

the Allions pass rush at full strength

18:34

right now with Alan mcneilback and Hutchinson playing

18:36

at an all pro level, I think it's going to be enough for

18:39

the Lions to get the key stops. They need to get a cover

18:41

home, so land the chalk with

18:44

the Linos, and honestly,

18:47

I'm probably going to get involved in some of the alt

18:49

spreads there as well, as I think

18:51

this sets up well for the Lions to really

18:54

flex a little bit and what could

18:56

you know, likely their last home game of this playoff

18:58

run. But you know,

19:01

I'm maybe looking a little bit ahead into

19:03

the future here, but kind

19:05

of salivating at the idea that the Lions,

19:07

like really really flex hard in this

19:10

game and people buy in all yes,

19:13

and then like San Francisco as a little

19:15

bit overvalued dog because

19:18

you know, for all of the reasons I don't like Tampa

19:20

Bay's offense against the Lions defense, the

19:22

Shanahan offense is going to immolate

19:25

those guys. So ultimately,

19:28

I think the Lions, you know, have a have a

19:31

just an outstanding performance on deck this week.

19:33

And I laid the points with the boys from Detroit.

19:35

I want to I want to step in because it is the only

19:37

bet I have in my account. Same thing, and I have it at

19:40

six. I have it at six at Bookmaker,

19:42

but it is six and a half consensus.

19:46

The only thing I'll add, I don't think you brought up their head

19:49

to head this year. For those who care about

19:51

head to heads, these two teams met

19:53

in Week six. Detroit

19:55

wanted at Tampa Bay by fourteen

19:58

twenty to six, eighty to two

20:00

fifty one total yards that day. Jared

20:02

golf more notably passed

20:04

for three point three that

20:07

day against.

20:07

The book So read into that which you will as well.

20:10

Just as most of the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers had

20:12

zero, pretty much zero drives the whole

20:14

game. I remember the

20:16

game very much. I have it

20:18

up here. The Tampa

20:20

Bay drives were five plays and out,

20:22

interception, five plays and out, six plays

20:25

and out field goal, nine plays

20:27

forty three yards at their one drive in the first

20:29

half, another punt, four plays and

20:31

out, So basically did absolutely nothing

20:33

in the first half. Then the second half they had six

20:35

plays for forty yards for a field goal, their second

20:37

field goal, and then they had four

20:40

plays and out, three plays and out, and then

20:42

at garbage time thirteen plays sixty nine

20:44

yard drive. So it's not even

20:46

as good as what you're saying, Gilly. They were horredious,

20:49

yeah, on offense, and they weren't even in

20:51

They were really not even in that game. So

20:53

I you know, just I agree

20:56

with you guys a lot on this one. I'm not

20:58

going to play the exact same thing, but I'm

21:00

going to play something similar off of that.

21:03

Todd Bowles, Are you done?

21:04

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I just

21:06

want to add Todd Bowls, you know, famously

21:08

of course, nineteen eighty seven Super Bowl

21:10

champion with Washington Redskins. He was just

21:12

asked by a reporter, did you see this how

21:15

the Bucks would acclimate to the weather in Detroit?

21:17

Did you see that?

21:18

Oh?

21:18

God, yeah, he got that question.

21:20

He was super sweet, A fair question. I mean, the walk

21:23

from the bus to the stadium is gonna be freezing.

21:24

It's gonna be freezing out there for sure. All

21:27

right.

21:27

Then comments were good too. Somebody's like, what if

21:29

the roof blows off. The

21:32

comments are just as good.

21:33

Comments are the best people

21:35

are funny Todd, what

21:38

you got?

21:38

I'm gonna go under forty eight and a half In that same

21:41

lines game, I think

21:43

that the lines

21:45

are just much better than First of all, Tampa

21:48

Bay really stinks. Okay,

21:51

anybody who's playing the Eagles should have

21:53

scored five touchdowns, like

21:55

in no time? Did you if you remember the Arizona

21:58

game where they went up and down the field on them. Tampa

22:00

Bay was moving the ball in them, but they would get stuck

22:02

in the red zone and kickfield goals for

22:05

a number of those drives that cost me my team total

22:07

in the first half over, I thought Tampa Bay

22:09

should have been ahead. You know, they should have four or five touchdowns

22:11

against that horrible Eagles defense. I

22:14

was not impressed with Tampa Bay's offense because

22:16

I really think the Eagles defense is that bad

22:19

and the only reason they got to where they got is

22:21

because the Eagles defense was that bad. The Lions

22:23

they're not great on defense, but I don't see them

22:26

being this ridiculously bad defense

22:28

that the Eagles is. So I think that the Lion

22:32

the Buccaneers are going to have a hard time moving the ball, just

22:34

like they did in the first game. I just read you the drives.

22:37

I just don't see them, you

22:39

know, doing a lot on offense. And then Todd

22:41

Bowles is pretty good on defense. I think he'll cook

22:43

something up to maybe slow the Lions down

22:45

a little bit. You know, goff did

22:47

have that big first game, but they did only score twenty

22:50

points. So you

22:52

know, it wouldn't shock me if this was another grinder

22:54

game, you know, and the Lions or you

22:56

know, down twenty seven to ten, they're

22:59

up twenty seven ten late and you got

23:02

to get to forty eight and a half. I just don't I just

23:04

don't see it. So, h forty eight and a

23:06

half in an NFL game nowadays, with

23:08

these ridiculously under type

23:10

thing it's a lot. I'll take under forty

23:12

eight and a half.

23:12

I got a trivia question for you boys.

23:14

Which of the remaining eight placekickers

23:18

in these playoffs has the best

23:20

field goal percentage this year,

23:23

the best field goal percentage

23:25

from fifty plus and the best

23:27

extra point percentage. It's all the same field

23:29

goal kicker, and I guess.

23:31

It's not Justin Tucker obviously, right, No

23:33

Chase McLaughlin.

23:34

Chase McLaughlin the best of all.

23:36

Really, Chase more than better than Bucker.

23:39

Better than Bucker. So Chase McLaughlin is

23:42

twenty nine of oh no, pardon me. In

23:44

the You're right, Drew, Chase McLaughlin

23:46

was the best of the NFC twenty nine of

23:48

thirty one. Harrison Bucker was thirty three

23:51

of thirty five. I

23:53

should have said the NFC Chase McLaughlin seven

23:55

of eight from fifty plus, Harrison

23:57

Bucker five of five from fifty plus

23:59

and both of them perfect from

24:02

eight perfect on pat So it's the

24:04

NFC is the answer is Chase McLoughlin and

24:06

Harrison Bucker is the answer in.

24:09

The AFC, excuse me

24:11

not. On field goals.

24:11

In the AFC, Kimie Fairbairn actually had the best

24:13

percentage on field goals of the remaining AFC

24:16

kickers twenty seven twenty seven of twenty

24:18

eight of twenty eight. Who is here's

24:20

the big question on these who has the worst

24:23

percentage fifty plus of the eight

24:25

remaining kickers.

24:27

I'm guessing it's Detroit if you're going there, right.

24:29

Justin Tucker one of five

24:32

from fifty plus this year.

24:34

Yeah, he wasn't as good that this year. He got one or two of

24:36

them blocked, but he wasn't as automatic this year.

24:38

I feel like that's a stat, like the

24:40

most glaring stat that nobody

24:43

knows this year one of five

24:45

from fifty plus for the great justin

24:47

Timme.

24:47

I missed the couple in that indie game early.

24:49

If I remember correctly, it's such an amazing

24:51

stat that you almost have to double check that I'm

24:53

not lying.

24:55

I'll tell you what.

24:56

The one thing that matters in this game, at least for

24:58

field goals is like the line just don't kick

25:00

field goals.

25:01

They just don't kick them, That's right.

25:03

Yeah, if they have a you know, they set themselves

25:05

up, they're aggressive on fourth down, they're not kicking

25:07

a ton of field goals. Riley Patterson only

25:09

had three attempts inside the twenty nine this

25:11

year, only ten, only

25:13

ten attempts between thirty and thirty nine. So

25:16

they're just not even really trying, which

25:18

is which is kind of noteworthy.

25:21

I will add to Todd's under and

25:23

just in general Tampa Bay offensive

25:25

skepticism.

25:28

I'm still doing

25:30

the film breakdown from Bucks

25:34

Eagles. I'm up to like seven drops

25:36

that the Buccaneers could not hold onto

25:38

the ball for their life, and

25:41

they're not like a high drop team over

25:43

the balance of the season. But if you're dropping the ball at

25:45

home, like I mean, what are we doing?

25:48

I'll say this on the megapod because we

25:50

said it on the radio side. I'm already sick of talking about it.

25:52

But it has to be brought up on the podcast, which is, are

25:54

we going to find out like somebody

25:57

on the Eagles slept with another Eagle's wife

25:59

or something, because none

26:01

of the football explanations and I've heard

26:04

them all right old on d you

26:07

know, offensive coordinator, head

26:11

coach, quarterback dysfunction, all

26:13

that can be true, Drew. I thought you had the

26:15

best, the best explanation,

26:18

which is you have to go back to net to last year,

26:20

because I certainly have said the ten

26:22

and one shouldn't have been ten and one, right, they could

26:24

have been seven and four just as easily.

26:26

But even then they.

26:27

Were like a good seven and four even

26:30

if they had lost to Dallas the first time in Buffalo

26:32

in one of the Washington games. Let's say, but

26:34

you're right like last year, could you remind

26:37

like I thought that point you made, we

26:39

forgot that last year, as

26:42

good as they were, what

26:44

was it that they were over.

26:45

Yea, yeah, go ahead. The defense.

26:47

The defense was just broadly overrated by

26:49

the end of last season because they played

26:51

no quarterbacks of note nine

26:54

all year in the regular season, and then Daniel

26:56

Jones and then some mishmash of San

26:58

Francisco quarterbacks. Is the Championship game,

27:01

Mahomes hung, you know, Mahomes

27:04

was indefensible by them in the in

27:07

the Super Bowl, and you

27:09

know, so so just in general, like the market

27:12

was way higher on that defense than was warranted, I

27:14

think. And

27:16

then you kind of mix into the fact that they scored,

27:19

they were they were the most efficient offense in first halves

27:21

last year by margin, particularly in the second

27:23

quarter. Yes, and so

27:25

they had massive second half leads

27:27

in all of these games. And like when you have that,

27:30

you know, when you put your opponent in a must pass situation

27:32

and you have wave after wave of pass rusher, you're

27:35

going to set the record for team sacks,

27:37

You're going to look better than.

27:38

You actually are.

27:40

And I think all that kind of really shaded

27:42

perception on all the Eagles last year.

27:44

And then you know, compound that with

27:46

the fact that they let their linebackers walk out the door

27:48

and they re signed their old secondary

27:50

players, and you know, cornerback play

27:53

is not it's not sticky.

27:55

When you're you're good, the next year you're you're.

27:57

Absolute trash, right, And I think you

27:59

know, the Eagles, you know, secondary players

28:01

proved that in a lot of ways, and you know, the

28:04

injuries didn't help anything for this season. But

28:07

I also think the offensive side, the explanation

28:09

is pretty straightforward as well, which was Jalen Hurts

28:11

has some had some sort of more meaningful knee

28:13

injury than we ever knew, and

28:16

because of that, they only ran him out of shotgun.

28:18

It made their offense very predictable and

28:21

just in you know, they put them in a little

28:23

bit of a box in terms of what adjustments they could

28:25

even make, and I think a lot of defenses had them

28:27

figured out.

28:28

I also think, like this

28:31

is just me riffing it. He doesn't feel like

28:33

he's that inspiring of a quarterback to

28:35

me, Like if I was his teammate, I also feel that way.

28:37

But I think that point about

28:40

how they were ahead in all those games

28:42

last year is one of those is one

28:44

of those points that our brains don't lock

28:46

into and we tend to purge it

28:49

right in the in the macro, and I

28:51

think it's such a great point about them. Now, I still

28:53

think somebody's probably slept with somebody else's wife because

28:55

it's a little too big of a drop off. But I

28:58

think that's a point that it's a

29:00

loss in the discussion that is such a good one.

29:02

And they were kind of, yeah,

29:05

I don't know if that makes you fraudulent, It just

29:07

makes you a a product

29:10

of the circumstance in a way that we

29:12

didn't retain necessarily.

29:15

It's plenty of there's plenty of quarterbacks and quarterback.

29:17

Constitution and how you kind of run that locker room

29:19

obviously matters. Look no further than c. J. Stroud

29:21

is like sort of your quintessential example from this year.

29:24

Like if you you know, it's

29:26

entirely possible. And I've heard people whispering

29:28

about this, and not really whispering, but just sort of

29:30

outright saying it. Who covered the Eagles that you

29:33

know hurts has a constitution and a disposition

29:35

in the locker room, and that like it comes

29:37

across well when you're winning, and it really

29:39

does kind of poison things when you're losing.

29:41

Yeah, and so yeah, I mean, I.

29:43

The fact that you know, there wasn't a lot of the fact

29:45

that Hurts doesn't really run into the defense of Siriani

29:47

and vice versa and the skill position players

29:50

and Hurts, and you know, the fact that the team

29:52

kind of came apart at the seams I think is a

29:54

bit telling. But you know,

29:56

when you lose whatever, what six out of seven

29:58

games or whatever it was, then the season that

30:01

tends to happen.

30:02

That's that's an underrated football point too. I said

30:04

that to uh two dever song fashion

30:06

stylists when we were watching the Dolphins.

30:09

She likes to watch the Hard Knocks thing remotely

30:11

we're watching the Dolphins thing, and she loves Mike McDaniel,

30:14

and I said to her, I was like, this is

30:16

he's one of the He's one of those personalities

30:18

that if you're winning, he's the coolest,

30:22

quirkiest, most interesting guy in the world.

30:24

As soon as you start losing it like this fucking

30:27

nerd kind of thing. You

30:29

know. It's just it's horrible that we think

30:31

that way.

30:32

I saw all of five minutes of Hard Knocks

30:34

in season, and I had the exact takeaway.

30:37

Oh, that's so interesting. That's so interesting.

30:40

After they lost Saturday night, Deil the same thing

30:42

where I was like, man that this raw ra

30:45

is constant optimism and being players coach

30:47

like it looks good when you're winning, but you

30:49

know, there's a reason most of these great coaches

30:51

are they're a little bit you know, they're they're kind

30:53

of pretty Jim, can

30:55

we talk about sanditli check? What's

30:58

that that.

31:00

The pants that he's wearing are not head coach

31:02

worthy. He's wearing those pants that

31:04

are like they're like, you know, they're

31:07

too short, and they're like they're like, see

31:10

it doesn't when he just the pants are

31:12

that's a problem. You give up the.

31:15

Don doesn't wear shorts.

31:17

There's a lot that.

31:17

Don doesn't wear shorts.

31:18

Yeah, but you're right, well, you're right, will that

31:20

that that's I

31:23

used there was. I used to know a guy I went to high school

31:25

with a guy who ended up on me in

31:27

Menlo Park. He was a VC in

31:29

Silicon Valley and he would you know, they dole

31:32

out tens of millions of dollars to all these entrepreneurs

31:34

and I remember him distinctly telling me one time, he go, Gil,

31:36

we couldn't be these guys, Like, what are you talking

31:38

about, right, because you're all thinking, oh, I could be this guy

31:40

a big deal. We were like in our twenties or early thirties

31:42

at the time. He goes, they all have one common

31:45

characteristic. They're all pricks.

31:49

And I thought that was like a really valuable

31:52

thing.

31:52

And you're saying that about the head coaches will, which

31:54

I think is similar.

31:56

Not that they're McDaniel.

31:57

McDaniel had a clipico viral after that

32:00

tight after they blew out loss the boo the win

32:02

against the Titans on my football He like

32:04

had it. It's on me blah blah, Yeah, a viral

32:07

clip. Yeah, Like I saw it and I was like, all right,

32:09

cool. But if you do that,

32:12

like the problem is like two weeks later when

32:14

you get your brain smashed in.

32:15

My ravens, Yeah, what do

32:17

you say? What do you say? Now? Right?

32:19

Like?

32:20

Now what?

32:21

Right?

32:22

Like you lost them?

32:23

That's right, It's very true.

32:25

He looks like the coach for a soft team.

32:27

He looks like a coach for like a talented

32:30

soft like he looks exactly

32:32

like the coach should be for the Dolphins.

32:34

Like when everything's going well and it's beautiful

32:36

out and they can throw it over the middle and to no

32:39

one's hurting too and and and Tyreek Gill's

32:41

running for a millionaires. Oh look at the genius

32:43

he figured it out. He doesn't look like a

32:45

guy you want when it's ten degrees

32:47

below zero and you got to run the football.

32:50

And you know, I just by the way.

32:52

I hate that our brains work that way, but they just

32:55

do.

32:55

You know, I'd rather have Dan Campbell

32:57

going, Look, we're a football team, and here's

32:59

what we're gonna do. We're gonna line up, We're gonna

33:02

push you modern efforts off them. They'll foot

33:04

bull because we're about toughness. Have you ever

33:06

heard about toughness in the National Football

33:08

League? That's what we do. That's

33:10

who we are. You can''t ainty

33:12

Yard. Get the hell out of the locker room. Get

33:14

out of our building, and get out of our receiver room.

33:16

Get out of our offensive line of room. Why is

33:19

everything a room? That guy's been great

33:21

tho. We got the best wide receiver room

33:23

in the country.

33:24

It's a room, Todd, it's a room.

33:26

Did you hear his interview on when they come back

33:28

to the second half? I can't remember who the sideline reporter

33:30

I was doing it, and he's like, we didn't get

33:32

them a punt in the first half. I got it, we gotta force a punt.

33:35

They didn't punt at all.

33:36

He's like really fixated on bit. All right,

33:39

Will, what's your second or your first?

33:40

Sorry?

33:41

Melissa Stark looked a little frightened in that.

33:43

Melissa starts, that's right, I

33:45

ain't.

33:45

Gonna go what do we have forty five and a half for a total

33:48

Chiefs Bills?

33:49

He got forty forty

33:53

five and a half?

33:54

Yet have them forty five and a half for what do you.

33:56

Have forty five and a half. Consensus?

33:58

Okay, I'm going to go

34:00

under. We've talked about this all year. The Chiefs

34:02

are an under team. We

34:05

as much as we've talked about I feel like I haven't betted

34:07

enough. But there's this perception of

34:09

the Chiefs and the Bills. I think people think of the thirteen seconds

34:11

game a couple of years ago and that sticks in

34:13

their head, where it's forty two to thirty six and they're trading

34:15

touchdowns and it's high flying. That's

34:18

not the Chiefs anymore. That's really not the Bills anymore. Especially

34:20

under Brady. They've run the ball a little bit more, a

34:22

lot more, I think, and they're not as explosive

34:25

on offense. The Chiefs aren't as explosive. Kelsey

34:27

looked completely washed, even with the week off

34:29

last week, he looked slow. He was dropping balls.

34:32

To me, this is more of a twenty three twenty

34:34

type of game than like the typical thirty

34:36

one to twenty eight Bills Chiefs shootouts were used

34:38

to I just think the perception doesn't match

34:40

the reality. With the Chiefs and the Bills, I think this numbers

34:43

still a little inflated open. I think forty

34:45

seven forty six and a half, so it's ticked down. I would

34:47

expect it to maybe tick down a little bit more. I will

34:49

go under Chiefs and Bills under forty five and

34:51

a half.

34:52

Did I hear you just blame Taylor Swift for the

34:54

demise of the Kansas City Chiefs.

34:55

That I just hear that?

34:56

Just now?

34:58

Well, I don't think so.

34:59

He's just older.

35:00

He started.

35:00

Look he's he's I think six months older than Gronk,

35:02

and Gronk's been retired twice and retired

35:05

for a little bit now, So he's just old. He looks old

35:07

and slow. He's just not the same player. Rice

35:09

looks like he's gonna be a good receiver. But my goodness,

35:11

that was impressive from Mahomes the other night because he's doing

35:14

it without very much in terms of help.

35:16

So to me, this is an under Whatever happened.

35:18

To Gronk's old teammate Aaron Hernandez he retired

35:20

young too. I can't remember what happened to him.

35:23

Wow, I think we didn't do along world with the

35:25

other.

35:26

Oh, that's right, by the way. Great forget

35:29

how good he was. He's so dope. Great

35:31

documentaries on that, great documentaries.

35:34

Okay, I will tell you one thing.

35:36

He was a tough guy. He would get on some of the yard. If

35:38

we lined up, need a yard, we'll get airon Hernandez.

35:40

He'll take out a gun and shoot the guy can get us the yard.

35:42

But he was a fucking psycho god

35:45

b Yeah, he really was, all

35:47

right. I was on

35:49

Detroit, So that was my first.

35:51

My second is the

35:53

Baltimore Ravens minus nine

35:55

and a half.

35:57

I love C. J. Strouth.

35:59

Thought it was gonna be the nonumber one pick had bets accordingly,

36:01

because I figured the Carolina Panthers they're

36:03

trading up. They gotta be draft in Stroud not

36:06

so much. I

36:09

do feel vindicated by it, and I think he's great. And I

36:11

have pookin a coup offensive Rookie of Year tickets that aren't

36:13

going to get home because of CJ. Stroud too, So

36:15

I lose on both ends. I think he's great.

36:17

But we've seen this from

36:20

the Ravens before. We saw it against the

36:22

Seahawks. We saw it against the Lions

36:25

when they had these home games where

36:27

they just rolled

36:31

their opponents in the first half of games.

36:34

I think we're going to see that Saturday morning

36:36

in the Memorial Houston

36:38

Texans Saturday time slot.

36:40

Buddhist man had the greatest joke on Twitter.

36:43

Will You were saying you wish you were smart enough to have had

36:45

this joke too. He's like, if the Super Bowl, if the Texans

36:47

get to the super Bowl, they're moving it to Saturday

36:49

morning for the Texans time slot

36:52

on Saturday.

36:53

Window early window.

36:54

I think the Ravens, due to the Texans what

36:56

they did to those teams, I think they come out

36:58

and just.

36:59

Absolutely roll them.

37:00

Here a first half bet might

37:02

actually be better, quite frankly, but

37:05

that's how I see this going. I think the Houston magic

37:07

carpet ride ends here Baltimore

37:09

overwhelms him and practice squad

37:12

player Owen Wright is only

37:14

three games away from a Super Bowl ring.

37:16

I just want to point that out as well. That's

37:19

my second pick. Will. We're snaking. What do

37:21

you got?

37:22

You gave two?

37:23

Yeah, I gave Detroit earlier.

37:24

I'm with you line, Okay, I'm

37:27

gonna make it three here with Detroit for a

37:29

lot of the reasons you guys said.

37:31

I just wow, I watched.

37:32

A lot of that game. That was right around so it was week

37:34

six. I think it was right around like when the baseball playoffs were

37:36

starting or the end. Yeah, I think it was in the middle of the baseball

37:38

playoffs. Tampa couldn't

37:40

move the ball. It only got like thirteen first downs. They

37:42

were three of twelve I think on third down,

37:45

and that was in Tampa. You're gonna flip venues.

37:47

Now, that is going to be a crazy home crowd.

37:49

It's Tampa on a short week. Detroit

37:51

can stop the run. Detroit can get a pass rush.

37:54

To me, the Division round is where Cinderella.

37:56

Goes to die. To speak to your point about.

37:58

The Texans, I think the Bucks falling to

38:00

that category. Look, I don't love laying

38:02

the six and a half, but once you get past,

38:05

you know, the four to four and a half, that is a little bit of a dead

38:07

number. You're under the key number of seven. Lions

38:10

winning this game by seven or ten points wouldn't surprise

38:12

me. Most of the time. The spread doesn't

38:14

come into account here. So if you think they're

38:16

gonna win the game, you know what, the six and a half. I

38:19

don't love laying it, but I will lay the six and a half

38:21

here. There's not that much to choose from. Lion should

38:23

win this game twenty seven fourteen,

38:25

twenty seven to seventeen like that, something like that. Give

38:28

me the Lions minus the points. The Lions headed

38:30

to the Final four? How about that?

38:31

How about that Lions NFC

38:34

Central rematch?

38:34

By the way, for those of us old enough to the

38:37

Bucks and the Lions Bucks, these teams used

38:39

to be in the same division.

38:39

The NFC Norse where Berman used

38:42

to choke on his on his breath segment.

38:44

The the NFC

38:46

East didn't show up. By the way, speaking of divisions,

38:48

what was I gonna say? Oh? Lions, Browns,

38:51

Texans, Jaguars.

38:52

The only four franchises that have not been

38:54

to a Super Bowl obviously, Lions and Browns far

38:57

older franchises than the Texans and Jaguars,

38:59

and shoot,

39:02

now went out of my head. What I was about to say, Oh,

39:05

you're the third person on the Lions. It was a

39:07

great pick when it was two, but now that it's three, you know it's

39:09

jinx right, no chance it wins.

39:12

So we we're due.

39:13

We're doing for the reverse chants.

39:15

Okay, dad,

39:17

what's your number two?

39:18

It wasn't his top pick.

39:19

For what it's worth, that's true.

39:21

God, I'm gonna say with under forty

39:23

five and a half. Also in the Bills and Chiefs

39:27

for much of the same reasons that Willy said. Somebody

39:29

had on Twitter that the Chiefs are

39:31

sixteen and one to the under in the second

39:33

half of their games, which is just unbelievable.

39:37

But look, the Chiefs

39:41

no offense. Okay, let's just be

39:43

on it. They beat Mike McDaniel's team, big

39:45

deal. The guy doesn't even have regular pants, so

39:48

you know that doesn't really impress me too

39:50

much. So and I you

39:52

know, we watched them against the Raiders with Mahomes

39:54

goes back to passy pats the ball about a thousand

39:57

times, there's nobody to throw too. I'm not saying

39:59

the Bills are that great on defense, Clearly

40:01

they're not. They let Mason Rudolph move the ball

40:03

on them. But I think they're good enough

40:05

to you know, slow a

40:08

Chiefs offense. It's really not that good. By

40:10

the way, Mahomes rushing yards might be

40:12

a real nice prop in this game, because

40:15

in the last couple of games we've seen a lot of this

40:18

Mahomes having no one to throw to and just

40:20

has to run. And I

40:22

remember him taking off for a big run

40:24

in the last game as well, and that might be a nice prop.

40:26

But I just think this is going under. I think Kansas

40:28

City's defense is pretty good and the Bills

40:31

offense, you know, they didn't really

40:33

just move up and down the field at will against

40:35

Pittsburgh. First of all, one of the touchdowns

40:37

was a fifty two yard run by Josh Allen

40:39

that could have clearly been tackled because

40:42

he faked a slide where it looked looked

40:44

like he was faking a slide. That was kind of a very

40:46

lucky run. Then the other touchdown was Shakir

40:49

was tackled at like the nineteen yard line, somehow

40:51

he stayed on his feet and got in the end zone.

40:54

And the Bill's got a free touchdown when they gave him

40:56

the ball, when Pickings gave him the ball at the ten year olds. And

40:58

by the way, the Bill we watched

41:00

them beat the Chargers twenty one

41:02

to eighteen. We watched the Bills beat you

41:04

know, put in whatever team.

41:07

You know. The Bills just aren't this

41:09

juggernaut offense anymore either, guys.

41:12

So I like under forty five and a half

41:14

against a good Chiefs defense, And as

41:16

we said, the Chiefs offense is just not is

41:19

not that great.

41:20

And you also left out Mason Rudolph throwing a pick

41:22

at the goal line as well.

41:24

I forgot that. And by the way, it's also gonna be

41:26

still cold. It might not be like bitter

41:28

bitter cold, but it's still gonna be freaking cold.

41:31

Yeah, Buffalo weather for Sunday.

41:33

I'm checking the Doppler right now.

41:35

I think it was like twenty one high and sixteen

41:37

low.

41:40

Twenty three degrees. Yeah, it's gonna be balmy

41:43

when.

41:43

It's gonna be night. It's gonna be night. It might

41:45

even be lower than that.

41:47

When the sixteen miles power by the way

41:49

Baltimore win expected at seventeen miles

41:51

perwer. But those are the worst, the worst of

41:53

the forecast. Here's what I wanted to say.

41:55

Will you were bringing up the you know where Cinderella's

41:58

go to die back in the early days of podcasting,

42:00

when I used to do the betting dork and

42:03

beating the book. In the early days, I believe it

42:05

was nineteen hundred and forty seven when I.

42:07

First did my podcast.

42:08

I used to throw that stat out all

42:11

the time that the so

42:13

it was like eighty three percent of NFL

42:15

games in the regular season the spread

42:17

doesn't matter. That is to say, underdogs

42:19

went outright or the favorite

42:22

wins and cover. So only seventeen percent of games

42:24

favorite wins but doesn't cover, which is

42:26

actually not a negligible amount.

42:28

Seventeen percent.

42:29

Wild Card week historically was

42:32

the highest, right it went to it like eighty eight

42:34

or eighty nine percent, the old

42:36

format of wild cards where it's like the spread didn't

42:38

matter. I think division round ticks a

42:40

little bit down from there, like eighty six percent. I haven't

42:42

looked at that in years, but I remember using

42:44

that stat for you know, back in the old days

42:47

when we were growing up. This was the round, right,

42:49

like the old Niners and Cowboys

42:52

and Giants and Skins. Pick your juggernaut.

42:54

They would just destroy Bears. They would just destroy the

42:56

opponent.

42:58

All right, Drew, I sense you're gonna go apo me.

43:00

What do you got now? Number

43:02

two? I'll do Kansas

43:04

City plus the points plus two and a half. I

43:06

guess okay, we was picked spread

43:09

right.

43:09

I mean, I personally like money Line better, but I'll

43:12

take the two and a half points.

43:13

I think this is a coin flip game.

43:15

I think the strongest and healthiest unit in this

43:17

game is the Kansas City Chiefs defense. I

43:20

think the fact that the Buffalo

43:22

Bills defense largely carried them to

43:25

this playoff run.

43:27

And now the.

43:28

Particularly the second level you

43:31

know Bernard and Dodson or guys that really

43:33

really shored up what Buffalo was doing

43:35

defensively after kind of

43:37

that swoon in the middle of the season when Malana got

43:40

hurt. Those guys look unavailable

43:42

to me. That is a problem. I think Mahomes

43:44

scrambling Mahomes with the short passing attack.

43:47

The screen game for the Chiefs Chaco

43:49

running like all things look like they

43:51

will be relatively successful

43:53

here for the Chiefs to sustain drives,

43:56

and I think the Chiefs can take a lead into the

43:58

second half and basically just to kind of put

44:00

this game away in classic Andy Reid second

44:02

half style. So Kansas

44:05

City plus the two and a half

44:07

for me for pick number two.

44:08

This does feel like if you're on I've

44:11

heard a few people say this. I think Kelly was saying

44:13

it this morning. If you're on Buffalo

44:15

and you lose this to Mahomes,

44:18

you hate yourself, right. Your immediate

44:20

thought is I can't can't believe I bet against

44:22

Patrick Mahos. But I don't know if you guys have ever heard this

44:24

is the only podcast you'll ever hear this song. This is Patrick

44:27

Mahomes' first road playoff game. Have you guys heard that anywhere?

44:31

Sure?

44:31

If you guys know, Yeah, So okay,

44:35

By the way, Drew, you said you had a side at all

44:37

for what were your other two?

44:39

By the way, really on the Pat

44:41

Mahomes road playoff game, It's actually not true.

44:43

Oh is that right?

44:45

Well, Tampa in the super Bowl if.

44:46

You count he played at Yeah, he played at Tampa

44:49

in Tampa in

44:51

the Super Bowl where he lost. Yes,

44:53

I was a little a little home cooking for Tampa.

44:56

That's right, but

44:58

no, we'll get to other two in

45:00

just second. I think, right, we're doing teasers, is that true?

45:03

Yeah? Well, hey, let's do teasers.

45:05

What is your favorite two leg six

45:08

point teasers?

45:08

Sir?

45:09

I'm gonna break the I'm gonna break the

45:12

mold a little bit here because there's no good there's

45:14

no good teasers this week. So give me a pleaser,

45:16

Gil, give me a pleaser. I'm

45:18

gonna I'm gonna give six points back

45:21

with Green Bay and Houston and

45:23

take me down to three and a half and three and a half there.

45:26

I think both games are going to be extremely competitive.

45:29

I think you have the

45:32

more honestly, like I get

45:34

your points for Landet with Baltimore.

45:36

I don't take strong exception there. But I will

45:38

note that of the eight quarterbacks

45:41

who are in this round of the playoffs,

45:44

Lamar Jackson is the least accomplished,

45:47

which is kind of noteworthy.

45:49

He is one and three. Of course in the playoffs.

45:51

The one win was at the hands of Mike Rabel,

45:53

basically gifting him that game with

45:56

his decision making in Tennessee.

45:58

And you know.

45:59

I'm I'm going to give I'm going to give Jordan

46:01

Love an extra win for playing his way in beating

46:04

the Bears. I'm going to give CJ. Stroud an extra win

46:06

for playing his way in beating the Colts. So

46:09

there is only one quarterback with a single playoff

46:11

when it is Lamar Jackson. I'm

46:13

not saying that that ultimately matters. Mostly,

46:15

I just think that with the pass protection

46:17

that you're getting right now for CJ. Stroud, with Nico

46:19

Collins playing at an all pro level as wide receiver,

46:21

like, there's definitely going to be scope for I

46:24

think Hough Houston to

46:27

to find some success in this game offensively.

46:29

And if Lamar Jackson has any whiff of choking

46:32

choking here, we could have ourselves

46:35

an interesting outcome and

46:37

we could see Pat.

46:38

Mahomes only road playoff game.

46:40

I mean, I guess it could be his only road playoff game if he loses

46:42

anyway, But it would be absolutely

46:45

shocking to no one for the Chiefs to hope host

46:48

the AFC Championship game for the sixth

46:50

consecutive year. All

46:52

that said, all I said,

46:54

I think I still think the Ravens and

46:56

the and the Niners probably come

46:58

through, but I do expe the both games to be

47:01

very competitive considering that. I

47:04

mean, the the Niners defense I think is just flat

47:06

out overrated. I don't see them getting

47:08

home with the pass rush against the the

47:11

the offensive line for the Packers. Right now, Packers

47:13

can attack the multiple levels of the field with multiple

47:15

weapons, Like it's kind of the perfect

47:18

offense to take in there and go score for score

47:20

with the mighty Brock Party. And you

47:23

know, kind of last little little narrativey nugget

47:25

for you guys, like feeling

47:27

great about rock party in prime

47:30

time in the field

47:32

of jeans, you know, a month

47:35

less than a month removed from the Nightmare of Christmas.

47:38

You know, it's a little something in my head still lingering.

47:41

Yeah, yeah, I mean, like

47:43

like like, let's just say that there's

47:45

like a weird tipped pass in the first quarter, it gets

47:47

picked, like we're all, we're

47:49

all really sure.

47:50

That the party kind of bounces back

47:52

from that.

47:53

Well, I mean, you know, I'm not saying that it will

47:55

happen, but I am saying that if

47:57

and when the Niners lose this playoffs, it's

48:00

going to be, Ah, it's going to be a

48:02

miserable time to be on Twitter, because

48:05

there's going to be a lot.

48:06

Of dancing and it's going to suck.

48:09

But yeah, yeah, I think I

48:11

think the one.

48:12

Seeds come through, but I think both those games are going to

48:14

be super competitive. So I'll please, I'll

48:16

please please the the

48:18

Texans and the Packers to three and

48:20

a half.

48:20

All right, it's his teaser.

48:22

You can't do that, unfortunately, according.

48:24

To the rules. Just make it as a season two.

48:28

It's a nice pick and we're happy

48:30

to have it, but for the official record, we're going to

48:32

have to have a real teaser. I'm sorry.

48:34

Yeah, we'll just dogs.

48:36

Just make those two, just make them a teaser

48:38

too.

48:40

Want to please, let

48:42

me just say he's going So he's going Houston

48:44

plus fifteen and a half and

48:47

and a half for.

48:47

Both the Dogs. Yeah, yeah,

48:49

that works one.

48:53

Yeah, the the the turn of the phrase,

48:56

Lamar Jackson the least accomplished of the

48:58

wondever you're going with that. But I understand what you're saying

49:01

with the playoff record I

49:04

have I'm in so deep

49:06

with these bets that it's uncomfortable.

49:09

Right, So I have high what's

49:12

that?

49:13

Are you just riding the one Seeds? Yeah?

49:15

So I have exact as.

49:16

So it was a good it was a good weekend for my exact

49:18

as, even though my two picks sucked because

49:21

with the Browns and the Dolphins getting knocked out,

49:23

I never bet the Niners to beat either of those

49:25

two teams. But I have the Niners to beat the

49:27

Bills at twenty five to one. By the way,

49:30

there was plenty of better numbers in that during the season when

49:32

the Bills were at their at their bottom. I

49:34

have the Niners to beat the Ravens at twelve to one. In the Super

49:36

Bowl, I have the Niners to beat the Chiefs at eleven to one. I also

49:39

have the Ravens to beat the Niners as

49:41

a sort of cover up for that at five to one. So

49:44

that angst that you share, that you

49:47

bring up about brock Purdy is

49:49

definitely.

49:50

Still in my head.

49:51

And by the way, I have creative Niners

49:53

and Ravens things with egas Fiatek

49:55

winning the Australian Open, which is its own

49:58

ridiculous sweat every other day here

50:00

during these two weeks. So I am

50:02

uh, let's put it this way.

50:05

It could be a spectacular

50:07

month. It could also crash and burn for

50:09

me, but I wanted to.

50:10

Feel like if you get through, if you get through

50:12

Saturday and your two teams come through, I

50:14

think it's probably over.

50:17

Oh you, you're more worried about this week than.

50:19

You would be next for

50:21

both games.

50:23

Really, So a Ravens

50:25

Bills doesn't worry you more than

50:27

a Ravens Texans.

50:29

Injuries to the line actors for the Bills.

50:31

Okay, but how about a rave Raven Ravens might not

50:33

Ravens might not pun that game.

50:34

Well, let's Ravens.

50:36

Let's forget about Bills. What about Chiefs.

50:38

I honestly, the nobody, nobody

50:40

in that Chiefs receiving Corps, Travis

50:43

Kelsey inclusive, scares that defense. I don't

50:45

think I think you got you got the you got the advantage

50:47

over Mahomes in that game with your defense.

50:49

I think I'm not.

50:50

Worried about it.

50:53

For you.

50:54

I'm not worried about any of it because I bet it. But I'm

50:56

I'm surprised that you think that this week is

50:58

more worries some on the next.

51:00

That's interesting.

51:01

Yeah, all right,

51:03

Todd, your two teamer.

51:05

I'm going to take the Lions at pick them

51:09

for all the reasons you guys already stated. We

51:11

don't have to go over that at all. I

51:13

just you know, I think the Bucks are fraudulent,

51:16

and then I'm gonna go with Casey up to eight

51:19

and a half just because you know, I haven't

51:21

seen anything out of Buffalo that makes me think

51:23

that they're just going to blow people out.

51:26

You know, that game feels like twenty three seventeen

51:29

to me or something like that. So let's go

51:31

with Kansas City plus the eight and a half and

51:33

the Lions at pick them.

51:36

Wilson famous

51:38

Todd. I would expect the Lions to beat the Bucks,

51:40

and getting through the three and the seven

51:43

with Casey Buffalo sounds good. Should be

51:45

a relatively close game. So Lions

51:47

Chiefs two teamer.

51:49

Lions Chiefs is the is the one that

51:51

I gravitate towards

51:53

the most. But I do have the Lions in Ravens,

51:56

so I suppose I'm supposed to take the Lions and the Ravens

51:58

here, but I don't know. For teaser

52:00

purposes through the key numbers, I'll say Lions Chiefs.

52:02

Also, yeah,

52:06

all right, Drew before the final two questions,

52:08

what were your other two picks?

52:09

So you have the Lions and you have the Chiefs,

52:12

what were your other.

52:12

Two Okay,

52:16

I took the nine and a half with

52:18

both like the dog Packers

52:20

in Texans, right, yeah, I like I

52:22

like all the dogs this week, that's

52:25

right. I think the Bucks, the Bucks are the stinker

52:27

among the dogs this week. And I think I

52:30

played that under in casey Buffalo with

52:32

these guys as well. So we all agree on that total.

52:34

So that's you know, congratulations on eighty

52:36

points in Buffalogo.

52:38

That's right, congratulates shocked this

52:41

Niners game go doesn't become a really

52:43

high scoring game because, like you said, the Niners defense

52:45

is a little overrated. I mean, we saw Arizona

52:48

Cardinals moving the ball on on the Niners.

52:50

I don't see why the Packers couldn't move the ball.

52:52

And then yeah, honestly, like they just need to watch

52:54

the Ravens tape, like Matt lafour can

52:57

do exactly what Todd Munkin was

52:59

doing terms of scheme and knife those

53:01

guys.

53:01

So that that that, you know.

53:03

And actually like the sweat

53:06

probably for anyone who has Niners

53:08

futures is going to be if the Packers

53:10

win the coin toss, Right, you

53:13

don't really want to go up against Matt lafleur scripted

53:15

offense. I don't think, uh, and you don't

53:18

want the Packers to get ahead in that game.

53:20

I don't think.

53:21

But he's been taking the ball first too. That

53:24

might be a key thing for betting

53:26

in terms of like who to score, who's going to score first,

53:28

first quarter, first half? He took

53:31

the ball last week, he took it against the Lions on Thanksgiving.

53:33

I think they might be the.

53:35

Packers taking the ball.

53:37

Oh, that's huge. That's a huge factor

53:40

because that means it's almost for sure you're going to start

53:42

with the ball.

53:43

There are two biggest wins where the lines on

53:45

Thanksgiving and last week in Dallas, and both of

53:47

those had a really really really similar

53:49

kind of game state early right,

53:52

like take the ball, have some success,

53:54

you know, take some shots early, have some

53:56

success, and then get it.

53:58

You know, they got it both. They got a defensive score

54:01

in both games, which is not repeatable obviously,

54:03

but that that that really kind of you

54:06

know, got the young team rolling downhill.

54:09

What would be the most comical super Bowl at this point,

54:11

Houston Tampa Bay. I guess

54:13

Houston Tampa Bay.

54:15

Yeah, that's probably less than one percent,

54:18

though I got both teams. Both

54:20

of those teams.

54:20

I have Tampa as the lowest likelihood to win

54:23

right now at it's just two

54:25

point two percent, and

54:27

I have Houston at just over

54:30

three.

54:31

What do you have? What's your percentage on Ravens Niners?

54:35

Eight point five?

54:36

Eight point five percent? That's it? Huh eight

54:38

point five?

54:39

Okay, yeah, Oh actually

54:41

I just well I just multiplied their Super Bowl

54:43

winning probably, so that's that's actually wrong. Hang

54:45

on, it's I got to add

54:47

the the

54:50

AFCNFC props.

54:51

It's exciting,

54:55

it's very exciting.

54:56

Allry guys I

54:58

asked the questions I stepped in my bed.

55:00

I will say, while he looks it up, there is one

55:02

book that offers NFC versus AFC

55:04

who won the Super Bowl. There's one book that has the NFC even

55:06

money. If you think the forty nine ers are going

55:08

to the Super Bowl, and I still do, I agree that their defense

55:10

is overrated. They're gonna be like a two

55:12

and a half point favorite, I think over the Ravens.

55:15

That was six and a half on Christmas. I know the Ravens

55:17

beat their brains, but you're not going to move it a touchdown.

55:20

So I don't know if you think the raven if you think

55:22

the Fortinits are going to the super Bowl. Taking even money

55:24

on the NFC to win, I think is a decent bet.

55:26

What book is that I'm at?

55:27

Yeah, I'm at sixteen point seven sixteen.

55:30

That makes more sense.

55:31

Fanatics has it here in Connecticut, NFC even money.

55:34

Fanatics. Boy,

55:36

when Nevada gets legalized sports betting.

55:38

This is going to be quite the state.

55:40

I'm telling you, guys don't have NFC AFC super

55:42

Bowl.

55:43

Yeah we do well that we probably have. Yeah,

55:46

okay, but not at even money, that's for sure.

55:48

Yeah, Okay. Final

55:50

two questions.

55:51

Final two questions doesn't really feel

55:53

like after Division round ends, like the season is

55:55

over, Like this depression set in for you

55:58

does for me?

56:00

Okay, Final two questions.

56:03

Which of the big favorites, and there's only two

56:05

here, is the most likely

56:07

to lose?

56:08

Outright?

56:09

Drew?

56:10

If I come to you from the future and I say either the.

56:11

Ravens or the Niners lost out right,

56:13

what's your answer?

56:15

Yeah, I'm gonna say that I made the joke

56:17

on when we were talking on Tuesday that they both

56:19

lose. But ultimately I'll say the

56:21

Ravens, and it's because of

56:24

the.

56:27

I don't think their defense.

56:29

Ultimately, I just say that the I'm

56:31

at thirty five percent chance that the Texans

56:33

win this game, and it's because

56:35

I think the Ravens are probably at the top of

56:37

their you know, kind of market rating. We have not

56:40

seen them play a bad game in a very long time.

56:42

I think the defense, you know, particularly with

56:45

Humphrey a little banged up, Kyle Hamilton obviously

56:47

dealing with an injury, and Nico Collins playing the way is

56:49

that, you know that, and the past protection

56:52

that the Texans are affording

56:54

the C. J. Stroud, I think the Texans are

56:56

going to be able to score in that game, which kind

56:58

of puts a little bit of extra pressure on what is already

57:00

the most pressure filled start of the weekend

57:03

in Lamar Jackson in Baltimore.

57:06

Dad, I mean, I

57:08

hope it doesn't happen for your sake, Gilly,

57:10

but I could see the

57:12

Niners losing. I mean, this Packers

57:14

team as hot as hell,

57:17

and if they're really this good offensively

57:19

as they've shown, I mean, brock

57:22

purty sphincter might be getting a

57:24

little bit tight there. And we've seen

57:27

what happens when mister Purdy sometimes gets

57:29

a tightened sphincter situation.

57:31

He does tend to throw a couple interceptions.

57:34

And by the way, the Niners lost to the Vikings.

57:37

I mean, they did lose some bad stinker

57:39

games this year, so it could happen.

57:41

I'm not saying it's going to it, and I hope for your sake

57:43

it doesn't.

57:44

It's my answer too, though, like I think that's

57:46

the answer. Like the brock perty sphincter game,

57:49

I think that's the angle on us. I would say the Niners

57:51

too. As much as I hate to say that, I

57:53

don't see it happening with the Ravens. Like if the Texans

57:56

came in there and beat them, I

57:58

would be so shocked by that.

58:00

Although the only thing is, remember that

58:02

Stroud went into Cincinnati when

58:04

Cincinnati was flying

58:07

high and all of a sudden, think they're Borrow's

58:09

back. Would you say, would you say, Willie.

58:12

Since he stinks on defense they've stunk all year?

58:14

Okay, fair enough, but it's still it was a

58:16

hell of a win on the road against

58:19

a team that, like everyone was like, oh my god,

58:21

the Bengals are back. The Bengals are back, and then Stroud

58:24

just like knocked them down.

58:27

Willie.

58:30

I have a hard time seeing the Texans a dome

58:33

team from Texas go outdoors twenty degree

58:35

rather rookie quarterback Ravens

58:38

rested hungry. They haven't had a lot of playoff

58:40

success, so they're gonna They're not gonna overlook this

58:42

by any stretch. I don't see the Ravens losing, So

58:44

I'll go with San Francisco losing as the

58:46

more likely one, just because I don't love their defense.

58:49

You know, like Drews said, if green Bay gets the ball,

58:51

gets a lead, anything can happen. So I

58:54

don't think it'll happen, but I hope it doesn't happen.

58:57

I will stay. I will say San Francisco though.

58:58

All right.

58:59

Then the final question, as we live in a bizarro

59:01

world, you have to pick a side on three of these, but doesn't really

59:03

apply in that same context to just four games.

59:05

So I guess the same way of asking it is, which

59:08

of these sides do you like the least?

59:10

Drew Tampa?

59:16

Did I hear that right?

59:17

No?

59:17

Wait? So wait you but I thought you like Detroit the most?

59:20

What was? What was games?

59:24

Do I want to?

59:25

Oh? Yeah? Which game? Which game do you

59:27

want to know? No part of if you had

59:29

to.

59:29

Choose, yes, it's Uh,

59:31

okay, So I'm the widest range

59:33

of outcomes I see as Packers

59:36

niners, So that one,

59:38

okay, that's uncertain.

59:43

I would say the same thing, just because, like

59:45

you said, it all just comes down to is

59:47

the moment too big for brock purty? Does

59:50

he get does he have a couple of mistakes and then it's

59:52

like troublesome. And we

59:54

really haven't seen the forty nine ers from behind,

59:56

have we. We've seen them as a front

59:58

runner, but I don't remember them coming back too

1:00:00

much in games. I do remember

1:00:02

that Bengals game they got behind, they couldn't come back,

1:00:05

so you know that that would be I'm

1:00:07

not just I don't want that game.

1:00:09

By the way, didn't Brock pretty play well in his

1:00:12

one playoff appearance where he didn't get hurt last year?

1:00:14

Am I not remembering that correctly?

1:00:15

No?

1:00:16

He was shaky versus Dallas, he was okay.

1:00:19

He made some mistakes in the first half against the Seahawks,

1:00:22

but was superlative in the second half.

1:00:25

He got He got away with probably about.

1:00:27

Five turnover worthy plays that were not

1:00:29

converted to turnovers in his first two starts before

1:00:32

they elbow injury.

1:00:33

It's really all those pitches.

1:00:36

This is this is their happened.

1:00:39

That's right, itches, interceptions that should

1:00:41

have happened. It's a pro football focus that yeah,

1:00:45

Willie.

1:00:47

Forty nine Ers Packers as much, I don't like the forty

1:00:50

nine Ers defense, and I don't want only the points. I do see

1:00:52

a scenario where San Francisco scores basically

1:00:54

every time they touched the ball, and they just torched this Packers

1:00:56

defense. So I could see them winning this game,

1:00:59

you know, thirty eight to twenty

1:01:01

one or something. So I

1:01:03

don't want to lay it with San Francisco, but I'm afraid to take

1:01:05

it too.

1:01:06

I'm gonna be a little different here. I think it's the Chiefs

1:01:08

and.

1:01:08

The Bills, not a bad one.

1:01:10

I have no idea.

1:01:12

I really don't like if you came to me on

1:01:15

Monday and you're like, hey, Chiefs won

1:01:17

by thirteen, and if

1:01:19

you came to me and you're like, hey, the Bills

1:01:22

won by thirteen, I don't think I'd be surprised

1:01:24

by either, because I'd be like, oh, the Chiefs

1:01:27

warts came up, or in

1:01:29

the case.

1:01:29

Of the Bills, oh yeah, they're not that really that good at football.

1:01:34

Taylor Swift's no longer dating.

1:01:36

Wait, go ahead, Drew, what'd you say?

1:01:38

Doesn't that mean you think it should be a coin flip?

1:01:40

Well, that's what I mean. So that's the game I want no part

1:01:42

of.

1:01:44

Okay, right, the teams you get him

1:01:46

at, you can get him at plus money.

1:01:47

One of those teams you can get him at plus money, and it's

1:01:50

coin flip.

1:01:50

I don't know

1:01:52

because to me, to me, I can

1:01:54

definitely see the Ravens and the Niners both

1:01:57

crushing, and I could see the lens like, I

1:01:59

think it could be a schalk Fest weekend up until

1:02:01

that last one.

1:02:02

I really do.

1:02:03

If you if you can't beat the Chiefs this year,

1:02:05

I know you're beat up on defense and the Chiefs do have a

1:02:07

major rest advantage. Man,

1:02:10

Like it's the year of the coaching

1:02:12

firings and and these, you know, the coaching

1:02:14

hot stove. Do you think about moving on from mcdermoty

1:02:16

because you finally got him in your building? Chiefs

1:02:18

don't have good weapons, Like I wonder if the Bills don't get

1:02:21

past this game, do they move on for McDermott. Is

1:02:23

that a desirable job? Yes,

1:02:26

you got Alan, I

1:02:29

guess, But I mean,

1:02:31

what more do you want that's that's a lot of

1:02:33

it. There's not that many good quarterbacks as well.

1:02:35

No, for sure, I guess, But I mean, well, do you

1:02:37

have you also have a good quarterback

1:02:41

in the building.

1:02:41

I was just saying, I was

1:02:43

thinking exactly what I am like.

1:02:47

Oh, yeah, it's building in

1:02:50

our room and are that It's

1:02:52

like, there's just something that just rubs

1:02:54

me the well. Our offensive line room is

1:02:56

the best in the country. Everyone knows that room

1:02:58

is the best. What if you you on the

1:03:00

field and you're discussing.

1:03:02

The game still a room.

1:03:04

If you take the Buffalo job, you've got a good quarterback

1:03:06

room, and you can get heaters for that quarterback room, you won't

1:03:08

be as cold.

1:03:10

And what about the full building?

1:03:13

Yeah, you have to probably have to heat the whole building too.

1:03:16

And get pants, and get coach pants too.

1:03:18

What about pants? Then you get pre pants

1:03:20

for the coaches. That's what I was thinking of. He's

1:03:22

wearing capre pants.

1:03:23

Pre pants.

1:03:24

That's what it is, all right, last question

1:03:26

then we don't usually ask them, but I'll ask you.

1:03:27

Now.

1:03:29

You must decide now who is in

1:03:31

the Super Bowl? Who beats you with the Super Bowl?

1:03:33

Drew keeps

1:03:38

over Lions chiefs over Lions.

1:03:42

Oh my god, rematch

1:03:44

of Opening Night Chiefs over

1:03:46

Lions. That's right, I mean bookends

1:03:49

on the NFL season, Todd.

1:03:53

I don't know, uh, Packers, Packers

1:03:56

and Ravens.

1:03:58

Packers and Ravens. You

1:04:01

genuinely think that, really?

1:04:03

No, but I mean, I'm just not gonna say

1:04:05

the obvious. I mean, it wouldn't shock

1:04:07

me if the Packers, you know, pulled.

1:04:10

You know, maybe the Packers really are this good.

1:04:13

Didn't they lose to the Giants like a month ago in time?

1:04:16

It's still I'm not loving them. I'm just

1:04:20

and Jordan Loves made great strides. You remember

1:04:23

I hated Jordan Love this year.

1:04:25

Well, I want to mention, I'm

1:04:27

gonna go Chalk. I will go forty

1:04:29

nine Ers, get their Christmas revenge and beat

1:04:32

the Ravens.

1:04:32

It's not going to give us our.

1:04:33

Brock Party MVP futures back. No,

1:04:37

I'll go with I'll go with Chalky, I'll go Ravens. I'll

1:04:39

go with forty nine Ers over the Ravens.

1:04:41

That's mine, forty Doners over Ravens. Chockmick

1:04:43

Chalkers. By the way, where do I go to cash

1:04:45

my pooka? The coup offensive Rookie of the Year

1:04:47

and my brock pretty MVP tickets and my.

1:04:49

Uh my Matt laflora Coach of the Year.

1:04:52

Where do I get this?

1:04:52

Couldn't you hedge some of your your stuff?

1:04:55

Now with the no on, the circa

1:04:57

has the thing either the Ravens or the Niners will

1:04:59

win the Super Bowl and it's like plus money

1:05:01

now for the no.

1:05:02

Did you see that big it's a big price?

1:05:04

Is it that a big price? Yeah?

1:05:06

I think it's like, not not a big price,

1:05:08

but it's a it's a price.

1:05:09

Yeah, but it sounds like it

1:05:11

sounds like, Gill, you need to get into the

1:05:13

uh the each Way markets for awards betting

1:05:15

if you're getting all of these second place

1:05:18

finishes brutal

1:05:20

second yeah, each Way it's

1:05:23

uh yeah, if you get a top two finish,

1:05:25

you get a lesser steak, but you still get you still

1:05:27

get something.

1:05:29

It's British. It's British.

1:05:30

Yeah, they don't offer it awards

1:05:34

markets. But yeah, the no is plus

1:05:36

one forty two right now, or at least it was yesterday.

1:05:38

I remember when I first started talking to Dan West that he'd be like,

1:05:40

oh, the each Way should do it. Each Way I'm like, I have no

1:05:42

idea what you're talking about. He was always he He

1:05:44

always had like little quirks too. One of them was, uh,

1:05:47

you know, pick your player on Jabor is friendless

1:05:50

in the market, which means like nobody's

1:05:52

betting on her friendless.

1:05:55

Each way the bet is massive. If like

1:05:57

you're good, no, go ahead,

1:06:00

I say. The each way bet in tennis is like you're

1:06:03

bet in the French Open with an informed of the doll.

1:06:05

You just picked somebody on the other half of the draw, and

1:06:07

they get to the final, you get something.

1:06:09

And if something happens in the all, he withdraws, he gets

1:06:11

hurt, he loses what he never does. Then then

1:06:14

you're really riding.

1:06:15

Yeah.

1:06:18

I had the each way with you, Gilly at the back

1:06:20

and a buffet. Remember correctly,

1:06:23

we cashed it.

1:06:24

We cashed that. I

1:06:26

think it was in everyweight bet. We had everything insight.

1:06:29

All right, gentlemen, All right, gentlemen,

1:06:32

I think we've done all we can do here.

1:06:35

Good luck with all the bets. I know.

1:06:36

Drew.

1:06:36

By the way, Drew, do you have any tennis place today? How's

1:06:39

your tennis going?

1:06:40

I hadn't looked at the card either.

1:06:43

Andre Andreva was big for me. That

1:06:45

made my week yesterday over jabbar.

1:06:48

That was comprehensive, wasn't it. Wow?

1:06:51

Yeah, the rest of my card yesterday was pretty lousy.

1:06:53

The a

1:06:56

I'm one of the last three and Women's Survivor Women's

1:06:58

Tennis Survivor only lasted till like three

1:07:01

It was so hard this year, Like Fernandez

1:07:04

knocked half the pool out, Sachary knocked

1:07:06

half the pool out, Like Women's

1:07:08

Aussie Open is kind of right now down to like

1:07:10

three players, which is amazing.

1:07:12

I want to hear me blame something on Drew that has

1:07:14

nothing to do with him, but it's completely on me. But

1:07:16

I'm gonna rationally blame him. I can't believe you

1:07:18

didn't remind me that.

1:07:19

Survivor was going on.

1:07:21

That's my bad.

1:07:22

Yeah, no, it's not your bad. The whole DM is there.

1:07:24

I just have to go into it and like, oh yeah, survivor.

1:07:27

But oh so only three people left

1:07:29

really.

1:07:30

On the women's side.

1:07:30

Yeah, wow, that's amazing.

1:07:32

It's been It's been absolute cast. The women's

1:07:35

was impossible this year.

1:07:36

It was so hard.

1:07:37

Oh okay, gentlemen,

1:07:39

thank you, Drew Dinsic everybody, whale Underscore

1:07:42

Cappers where you can find him on Twitter. It's the

1:07:44

Deep Dive podcast. It is the Bet

1:07:46

the Edge podcast. And remind everybody, Drew, You've

1:07:48

been doing this forever and I think it's great

1:07:50

you do halftimes of games.

1:07:53

Yeah, and actually I don't know if Twitter still

1:07:55

does it, but really just you just open the Twitter app

1:07:57

and I believe we're broadcasting live, chopping

1:07:59

it up and make an halftime pick

1:08:01

for all of the primetime ones.

1:08:03

So we'll be on Saturday Saturday Night as usually

1:08:05

we're in.

1:08:05

We're in a little rare form because you know, as

1:08:07

one is wont to do on weekends in the cold

1:08:10

months of the year, is you get a little libations

1:08:12

in you for for for the evening.

1:08:15

I hear it's as Kelly says it. It's a different

1:08:17

kind of jurditsic much

1:08:19

more.

1:08:20

I listen to him. Sometimes they're great. I will

1:08:22

say, people get on Todd for interrupting. Andy

1:08:24

Martor is a minus one eighty favorite over Todd

1:08:26

in terms of interruptions.

1:08:27

Really wow, Yeah,

1:08:30

we do it to each other.

1:08:31

I'm guilty as well.

1:08:32

Wow.

1:08:33

I'm not sure what you're trying to say about me, Willie,

1:08:35

because I don't really appreciate that kind

1:08:37

of talk.

1:08:39

I think.

1:08:40

I think the college basketball losing yesterday

1:08:42

has decreased the number of interruptions

1:08:45

today too.

1:08:45

I think he's just got.

1:08:48

It.

1:08:48

He doesn't sing, he doesn't do a inser, he

1:08:50

doesn't nothing.

1:08:51

Yeah, I'm just

1:08:53

just I just can't. I can't handle

1:08:55

any more ridiculous end games.

1:08:58

You know, last week, Boston College down eight

1:09:00

with a minute left, they don't foul. But then when

1:09:02

I have the under some other bullshit team

1:09:04

fouls down nine with like twelve seconds.

1:09:06

I was like, give me a break, guys, figure

1:09:09

it out. What are we doing here? Either

1:09:11

we're gonna foul or we're not found There's gotta

1:09:13

be some kind of standardization. And

1:09:15

then you're up six, you can't

1:09:17

be dunking the ball.

1:09:19

There's gotta be some kind of standardization.

1:09:22

It's the old quid pro qlo.

1:09:24

At the end of an NBA game when the winning the leading

1:09:26

team just like runs out their twenty four second

1:09:28

clock and the team that got that where

1:09:31

it's like, well, we're six seconds left in the car, should shoot

1:09:33

it or not?

1:09:33

Some standardization please, for God's

1:09:36

sake.

1:09:36

I mean Dayton's, they're winning by six

1:09:39

under ten seconds left. They throw it out to a

1:09:41

guy so that no one can get fouled, and then

1:09:43

typically that's it, right, you just dribble

1:09:45

it out and no, he throws it to another guy who dunks.

1:09:48

So now it's a push. Five seconds

1:09:50

left. Now the other team comes down and banks

1:09:53

in a three pointer. Turns a win

1:09:55

into a push into a loss.

1:09:57

I said, we were leaving, but I just have this prediction. I

1:10:00

think one of these remaining seven games,

1:10:02

and I pray it's not the super Bowl, but I think one

1:10:04

of these seven games is going to be decided on

1:10:07

a horrific call

1:10:09

by the refs, which is

1:10:14

I'll tell you what drove that home for me though, that

1:10:18

that uncatchable pass in the Buffalo

1:10:20

game on Miles and they called

1:10:23

the p I on on Miles Jack, and then they

1:10:25

realized it was uncatchable. They're like, oh, the ball landed

1:10:27

in the third row, and

1:10:29

they're like they got they got

1:10:31

together, and I could you

1:10:34

could almost see them going, Okay, what do we

1:10:36

do here so that we have the least

1:10:38

amount of guff.

1:10:39

Oh, it's a hole. They went with the holding, so

1:10:42

no one was upset for a hold.

1:10:44

Fine.

1:10:45

I I have a feeling we're just gobb an awful.

1:10:47

Maybe

1:10:50

have his head torn off and not get

1:10:52

a call. I thought in the NFL, if

1:10:54

you like breathe on the quarterback, it's

1:10:56

a penalty. The guy literally had his head

1:10:59

decapitated off. I saw his head rolling

1:11:01

on the ground. They had to pick it back up and put it

1:11:03

back on. You know, by the way, No,

1:11:05

no, it was totally legal. You're

1:11:07

allowed to take a forum, smash the guy's head

1:11:09

off.

1:11:10

Give me a crazy crazy stuff happens

1:11:12

in the first home playoff game in Detroit in ninety.

1:11:14

Years go figure.

1:11:16

There was a lot of hole figure the road team got

1:11:18

an unfriendly one that with a whistle.

1:11:20

Who would have guessed?

1:11:21

But yeah, hold hold, hold your hold your breath for

1:11:23

Sunday afternoons game or the night game. I

1:11:25

guess for the people on the East coast. Sean Hockyley,

1:11:28

Oh oh, Chiefs

1:11:30

Bills.

1:11:33

Point and it hasn't come up yet, but there

1:11:35

are these new overtime rules where I think it's better

1:11:37

to play defense first. It would

1:11:39

be a little bit ironic

1:11:42

if if it comes into account with Bill's

1:11:44

Chiefs is because that was the reason they changed the rule.

1:11:46

What are the I'm sure Drew knows the rules. I think it's

1:11:49

what.

1:11:49

You get a change, you get, your

1:11:51

offense gets it. Yeah, your your offense gets

1:11:53

a second, gets a chance to match

1:11:55

if the other team scores a touchdown, so touchdown

1:11:57

doesn't.

1:11:58

End like it doesn't right, then it's sudden

1:12:00

death.

1:12:00

Right.

1:12:02

Oh, I'm so glad. I'm so glad we

1:12:04

brought this up. I forgot

1:12:06

that the overtime rules in the playoffs.

1:12:08

So like the you know the game

1:12:10

where the Chiefs receive received

1:12:12

the overtime kickoff, drove the field scored a

1:12:14

touchdown, six points game over. That's

1:12:16

no longer the that

1:12:18

that now is not the end of the game. The

1:12:20

other offense gets at least one.

1:12:22

Drive in the post six.

1:12:24

If you go second, the other team gets a touchdown,

1:12:26

you should probably go for two, right, because otherwise

1:12:29

you're kicking the extra point. Then it's sudden death. You'd

1:12:31

rather just go for two. I mean, it depends team

1:12:33

to team, but right, wouldn't you rather just go for the two

1:12:35

than play defense?

1:12:36

It's almost it depends.

1:12:38

It depends how effective your team is that converting

1:12:41

from the two yard line, But you

1:12:43

do hurt yourself win probability

1:12:45

wise if you kick the extra point and then give

1:12:47

the ball to the other team with the opportunity.

1:12:50

By the way, that's huge for the total to twenty

1:12:53

points.

1:12:54

It's huge for the total.

1:12:55

Keep that in mind in game totally because who knows

1:12:57

if the algorithm knows

1:13:00

that at that moment.

1:13:00

Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.

1:13:03

And the Eagles would have been the

1:13:05

perfect team to have applied this to

1:13:07

right, like tush pushing their

1:13:09

way in.

1:13:11

You can have seventeen, you can have seventeen

1:13:13

points.

1:13:14

Now guess actually you can

1:13:16

have twenty. You have twenty.

1:13:18

You have twenty overtime points.

1:13:20

Jeez, So okayyus,

1:13:23

we know how the Chief Bills game gets to eighty.

1:13:26

There you go, there it is. That's how it

1:13:28

gets to eighty boys. Oh

1:13:30

man, all right, well, let's end.

1:13:31

On the one and the plus one and a half and two and a half

1:13:33

are more valuable in a game like Chiefs Bills if you think

1:13:35

it's to go to overtime, which obviously it's unlikely,

1:13:38

but you could if the teams

1:13:40

are smart enough to go for the two, it's more likely it lands

1:13:42

on the one or whatever.

1:13:44

Also a good point, that's right.

1:13:47

How many announcers do you think know this? Heading

1:13:49

into their games.

1:13:50

Zero zero.

1:13:52

I didn't know that gym.

1:13:53

You should have told me earlier.

1:13:54

Jim, what do you mean, Jim? What do you mean

1:13:56

the score doesn't win it here? Question?

1:14:02

Oh he's a you got used to roma. Yeah, he's on the

1:14:04

super Bowl.

1:14:05

They got the super Bowl this year.

1:14:06

Yeah, we're doing Kelly

1:14:08

and I are doing Radio Row.

1:14:09

Are you doing Radio Row this year?

1:14:11

Drew?

1:14:12

Okay, all right, maybe we'll get you on this. Yeah,

1:14:15

let's get the set Thursday and Friday shots

1:14:17

will be on. I'm trying to get Usher on I really,

1:14:19

I'm genuinely trying to get Usher on the

1:14:21

show. I want to get some some intel

1:14:24

on his halftime show. I'm sure, I'm

1:14:26

sure he'll.

1:14:26

Give it up to me.

1:14:27

All Right, boys, Thank you, Drew, Dinsik, Will

1:14:30

Hill, Todd Wishnev, enjoy

1:14:33

the game's good luck with all your bets.

1:14:34

Thanks for listening.