0:03

Tuesday morning, March twenty six, twenty

0:05

twenty four. It is the Beating the Book Podcast.

0:07

It's Gil Alexander a little

0:10

something different today, and by

0:12

different, I mean we're back to baseball baby.

0:15

Oh yes, it's

0:18

awesome because again a special Beating

0:20

the Book podcast investigation reveals that

0:22

the baseball season is beginning in forty

0:24

eight hours. We've been so wrapped

0:27

up in the March Madness pod. Obviously obviously

0:30

football before that, we do tennis pods here

0:32

on this feed, but it's

0:35

baseball season. So how we do

0:37

this. We always have a preview pod and then Mark

0:39

Borchard and I base Winner. We'll

0:41

do a Q two and a Q three podcast

0:43

as well, where we go through all the betting

0:46

derivative stats. We

0:48

don't do too much more baseball than that on the podcast

0:50

side, but of course we cover a daily on the radio

0:52

side on a numbers game with Jason Weinngarten,

0:55

with Paul Spor with the aforementioned

0:58

Mark Borchard.

0:58

And two of those three I'm thrilled to

1:00

have join us.

1:01

On the preview pod today. I mentioned Mark

1:03

Mark Borchard base Winner at base

1:05

Winner on Twitter. Also does the bet

1:08

Us betting show Baseball

1:11

Wise daily during the baseball season Monday

1:13

through Friday.

1:13

Mark, how you doing, man, I'm

1:16

doing really good. I'm looking so

1:18

forward to this year, Gil for so many

1:20

reasons. But to answer your question,

1:23

Yeah, the MLB Show on YouTube.

1:25

It's a live show and it's super fun. I

1:27

get to answer any questions and all questions

1:30

and that's the most enjoyable part.

1:32

So that's going to happen again this year, about one

1:34

hundred and forty shows roughly.

1:36

And our buddy Steve Fezig listens to you all

1:38

the time. And you did it last year with

1:40

Jason Wyngarden, our dear friend

1:42

who's been with us since the beginning as you

1:44

have. Jason joins us now

1:47

from his well marks

1:49

from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. Jason

1:52

is from under a cloud of smoke that spread apedia. Let

1:54

me let me start with you, Jason, and this

1:56

is doing a doing a baseball preview

1:59

pod.

1:59

Two days before the season starts.

2:01

If you're not listening to us on the radio

2:04

side on a numbers game, I know you're coming to this podcast. You're

2:06

like a you guys, wait this long and all the best of the numbers

2:08

are going I know that that part can be a noise.

2:10

We're going to try to just we're gonna try to

2:12

emphasize just everything that is still

2:14

available right at this moment for season long. So we

2:17

get to the momentarily. But Jason, just

2:19

to give you some street cred here, can

2:21

you rifle through at

2:24

least a few of the.

2:24

Bets you've already made and where those numbers are?

2:27

Now?

2:28

Sure we can start with ONEO

2:30

Cruz was one of my favorites.

2:32

I got him at one hundred to one.

2:33

I see sixty five to one still at

2:35

FanDuel twenty five

2:38

to one at DraftKings.

2:40

I think that's probably a bit of an overreaction,

2:43

but you know, one hundred down to sixty five

2:45

is decent before the season talking.

2:48

Talking n L MVP there by the way,

2:51

yeah yeah, Mlsai Young.

2:53

I got some some Chris Sail

2:56

trying to find his number here.

2:57

I don't even know if he's, oh here he is. He's thirty to one.

2:59

At draft I got him at fifty.

3:02

Again.

3:03

I'm not not thinking that that he's

3:06

you know, gonna win or anything, but he

3:08

is Chris Sale. I you know, I still love him.

3:10

Think he's got something left in the

3:12

tank. So some some value

3:14

there. I got Jackson Jackson

3:17

Merrill. There's do you believe

3:20

there's three different rookies this year,

3:22

all named Jackson Jackson,

3:25

Churio, Jackson, Merrill, Jackson

3:27

Holiday.

3:29

You really have to.

3:29

Be specific when referring

3:32

to which which Jackson you're talking

3:34

about.

3:35

But I bet Merrill.

3:37

I got fifty to one, forty five to one, and

3:39

forty to one. He's now nine

3:42

and a half to one at DraftKings.

3:44

Let's see what he is at FANDO. I think I saw like fifteen

3:49

eleven.

3:49

Okay, cool, So he's down a

3:51

bunch. He won the center field job

3:54

in San Diego. And

3:57

then my other MVP bet, I

3:59

bet Wyatt Langford at five

4:01

hundred to one at CIRCA last week.

4:05

Yeah, you're like, who Wyatt Langford?

4:07

What the rookie?

4:08

He hasn't even played an MLB game yet. Yeah,

4:10

I know that's why he was five hundred to one.

4:14

He's down to eighty to one now, so you

4:16

know, maybe I got a good grab there. I don't know.

4:19

I mean, I'm just trying to grab good numbers.

4:21

If he's good enough to start bat

4:23

third for the defending World Series Champs

4:25

before ever playing a major League

4:27

game. I was pretty happy with five hundred to

4:29

one there, So I have some stuff,

4:32

not as much as I normally do, but the

4:35

numbers I have overall are pretty good

4:37

and I'm pretty happy with them.

4:38

Are any of those at the current numbers

4:41

bets you would recommend.

4:44

O'Neil Cruz.

4:45

I still think, you know, if he's fully healthy

4:48

and maintains as hell, you know,

4:50

sixty five to one is a fairly

4:52

reasonable number for his MVP

4:56

case, especially if you're bullish on the Pirates.

4:59

When you kind of look look at the other.

5:00

Guys that O'Neil Cruz

5:02

compares to, It's like Ronald Acuna,

5:05

Fernando Tatis and Cunya

5:07

is five to one, to Tease is ten to one. And

5:10

honestly, I don't think the TSA is gonna win an MVP

5:12

anytime soon. You know, if

5:14

if you're asking me who I think has the most value,

5:16

I'm just looking around O'Neil

5:19

Cruz or possibly his teammate

5:21

Cabrian Hayes an even bigger

5:24

number like two three hundred to

5:26

one, But give me O'Neil Cruz and the Pirates.

5:28

Yeah, O'Neil Cruz. By the way of the Pirates.

5:31

Jason is not referring to Elie Dela

5:33

Cruz of the Reds, so don't make that mistake

5:35

either. We'll circle back to some awards

5:37

here coming up. But I want to start mark with a

5:40

season win totals because

5:42

obviously those numbers are, you know,

5:45

not far off, if at all, from.

5:46

What they have been.

5:47

I'm curious what your favorite ones are

5:49

for the twenty twenty four baseball season.

5:53

Well, I think that I'll deal

5:55

one for each league. Gill and I.

5:57

In the National League, I like the Braves

5:59

over I've got them projected believe

6:01

it or don't at one hundred and thirteen

6:04

wins and it

6:06

well, but it gives you, it gives you some uh

6:09

some some room, you know, kind

6:11

of at the at the end of it. And

6:13

then I like the Tampa Bay Rays in the American

6:16

League. So those are probably my two favorite,

6:18

Like, I mean, those are my favorite teams

6:20

right now. The root for coming going

6:23

into the season, based on all the bets that I

6:25

have, I I put out uh,

6:27

well, let's see, I put out the

6:29

the Rays over eighty four and a half

6:32

minus one twenty. I don't know where it's right

6:34

now.

6:35

Uh.

6:36

And then I put the Braves over over at

6:38

one oh one point five.

6:40

So those are the two.

6:41

Teams that I'm kind of keen on this year, and

6:43

uh, you know, I look, I look for good things for both

6:46

teams. They have great pitching, great hitting, and great fielding.

6:48

So other than that, they're they're horrible.

6:50

You know.

6:51

Let me Atlanta Braves right now at one oh one

6:53

and a half at

6:56

uh, let's take a shop like DraftKings, what a one and a

6:58

half with the over at plus

7:00

one hundred so the under is juiced at

7:02

one oh one and a half. And then

7:05

you're Tampa Bay Rays, which, by the way, anecdotally,

7:07

I'm hearing more and more people

7:09

loving the Rays when talking about bets.

7:11

They're at eighty four and a half. Still eighty four and a

7:13

half on the on the Tampa Bay Rays.

7:18

Let me give and let me just.

7:19

Also say this, because I reacted to your projection on

7:21

the Braves. Every time I've ever reacted

7:24

like you just said that your numbers say the Braves one hundred

7:26

and thirteen. I can distinctly remember you

7:29

coming on here. Was it last year, maybe it was the year before,

7:31

where you're like, oh, yeah, I've got the Yankees projected at

7:33

ninety eight or whatever it was, and it was like way out

7:36

of whack, and then you were proven right, I

7:38

think a couple of years ago on and I believe that was when

7:40

it was. So when

7:42

Mark says outlandish things, oftentimes

7:44

they come true. The end of July July

7:47

thirty first, a couple a few years back, you're like Robbie

7:49

ray Cy Young one hundred to one bang

7:52

hits. So I shouldn't

7:54

ever snicker when you say something like that. So apologies,

7:56

vicating give.

7:57

It doesn't happen all the time, y'all.

7:59

I appreciate that, just just to

8:01

kind of, I guess, just on a high

8:03

level described the methodology. There's

8:06

really for me in these projections.

8:08

There's no regression progression

8:11

adjustments. I don't I think

8:13

that's really hard to predict personally.

8:17

And then the injury factor

8:19

too, for me is out of it. So it's

8:21

completely objective. It's a it's

8:24

a pitching rating based

8:26

on last one hundred and fifty plate appearance,

8:28

strikeout percentages, last three hundred

8:30

walk percentage, and then last one

8:32

fifty expected ground ball rate, And

8:34

that's pretty much the main ratings that I use

8:36

for the starter and the reliever and then and

8:39

I contextualize that for parks as well,

8:42

and then for batters it's it adjusted base

8:44

runs created last five hundred plate appearances.

8:47

So it's very objective, and I

8:49

just wanted to bring that out for people or like, who

8:51

are you know, maybe a little bit better

8:53

than me, because I will admittedly say I'm

8:56

not the best guy at like progression regression

8:58

and and it's it just really time consuming

9:00

and there's a lot of subjectivity at it, or

9:03

health analysis too, So so I

9:05

think my numbers are extremely

9:07

valuable for those who want to take it a little

9:09

bit further to say, okay, well here's the true talent.

9:12

But I think this team's going to be better because

9:14

this guy is coming back, or he's

9:16

not going to be hurt as much, or he's this

9:18

guy's going to get hurt for this other team, that sort

9:20

of thing.

9:20

Guild. Does that make sense?

9:21

Yeah? It does.

9:22

And for those who want access to your numbers, what do

9:24

they do this year?

9:26

Just go over to basewinter dot com and and

9:29

you got to sign up as a member.

9:30

It's ninety nine bucks.

9:31

I'm giving it away so you're

9:34

able to and I do give some free stuff out on

9:36

the site too that are that's very good. And

9:38

there's some things that you on a daily basis

9:41

that you don't have to pay anything. But I felt like,

9:43

you know, for for what I do and what I

9:45

think it helps a lot of people, I

9:48

think it's worth the ninety nine bone skill.

9:50

All right, I'm going to give my before we get back to Jason. I'm

9:52

gonna get my favorite season win totals that

9:55

I am on this year. Gave these out on a numbers game a little

9:57

while ago, but they're getting a season win totals are still right.

9:59

Around where they are, if not exactly.

10:01

And for those who don't know who know

10:03

me as like a sports betting

10:05

radio host or a tennis guy, baseball

10:08

is where I cut my teeth five ten years ago. If you asked

10:10

me what sports do I bet on? It was baseball and everything

10:12

else was a distant second. Jason Mark

10:15

and I all connected on baseball many years ago,

10:17

and this podcast was primarily a baseball

10:19

one and football back in the day,

10:21

baseball was definitely the secondary sport.

10:24

So last year when I gave out baseball

10:26

season winters, I only gave out one on this and

10:28

it was the Rangers over as

10:31

you may have heard they won the World Series.

10:33

Sort over their season.

10:34

Wins, and I do my

10:36

season wins same way every year, which

10:39

is I get to the actual personnel in the talent.

10:41

As a third aspect, the first.

10:43

Couple are looking at their Pythagoram

10:45

theorem and looking at their sequencing, and

10:48

so this year doing that, and I'll explain what that is

10:50

to those who don't know. Essentially,

10:52

with Bill James Patagrea theorem, it's not what

10:54

your teachers taught you in geometry class in

10:56

tenth grade. It's not a square post

10:59

P square equals C square. Won't bore you with his formula,

11:01

but it's essentially runs produced, runs

11:03

allowed, and he's got to try it in true formula

11:06

that that translates to a win percentage

11:08

expectancy. And therefore after one

11:10

hundred you know, and when you translate that to AH one one hundred

11:12

and sixty two game schedule, this is the games.

11:14

These are the number of games you ought to have won, and these

11:16

are the games you ought to have lost. The number

11:19

based on your wins, based on your run

11:21

scored and your runs prevented. And some

11:23

teams will in essence overperform

11:26

that. Some teams will underperform that either

11:28

mildly or greatly on a yearly basis. So

11:30

the Rangers the previous year,

11:32

prior to last year, they had really

11:34

underperformed both on Bill James Pythagrin

11:37

theorem and then on sequencing, which

11:40

is Bill James Pythagrian

11:43

theorem. Lets you know what your record should

11:45

have been based on runs produced and runs allowed.

11:47

He doesn't tell you how those runs

11:50

were produced and how those runs were allowed. We're

11:52

sequencing gives you an insight into that.

11:54

And what I mean by sequencing, I'll

11:58

I'll give the simplest example I'll always give,

12:00

which is, let's say you have seven events

12:02

at a half inning, a home run, the three

12:04

walks, and three strikeouts. But if the

12:06

order of those are home run, walk,

12:09

walk, walk, strikeout, strikeout, strikeout,

12:11

you end up with one run. If it's

12:13

walk, walk, walk, strikeout,

12:16

strikeout, home runs, strikeout, you

12:18

end up with four runs. And

12:20

so the same events can produce an

12:22

entirely different amount of runs. So some

12:24

teams get the best of it on offense or the worst

12:27

of it. And by the way, some teams get the best of

12:29

it or worst of it on defense. So

12:32

who then were the biggest

12:34

overperformers and the biggest underperformers

12:37

last year, and overperformers

12:41

Baltimore, believe it or not as good as they were. They

12:43

overperformed by about six games, Detroit

12:45

by six games, Miami by ten, Pittsburgh

12:48

by six. Underperformers

12:51

Minnesota by seven, Kansas City by six,

12:54

Texas by eight. Even

12:56

in their World Series winning year, Chicago

12:59

the Cubs that is by eight talking

13:01

about in terms of the Bill James

13:04

Pythagorean numbers. And then when it comes to sequencing,

13:07

Baltimore, Miami, and Pittsburgh also overperforming

13:10

by sequencing, Minnesota, Kansas City, and

13:12

the Cubs also underperforming by

13:14

sequencing as well. The Cubs

13:16

end up being my second favorite season

13:18

win total. The over on the Cubs I

13:21

got him at eighty four and a half. And

13:23

when you get beyond what I just said that instead

13:26

of being an eighty three win ball club, they

13:28

ought to have been a ninety one win ball

13:30

club last year based on both

13:32

pie fag and sequencing,

13:35

they add, you know, the last half

13:37

of last year, says Zuki Monster,

13:39

second half of nine thirty eight ops. So

13:42

if you can expect a full season of something close to

13:44

that, maybe that's allowing for more, butit'll

13:46

certainly project that over a full season to be

13:49

a good cog in their will. Michael Bush more

13:51

upside than anyone they've had at first base in some time.

13:55

They missed the postseason by one game last year, but they

13:57

got young talent Peter kormstrong Ben Brown. So

13:59

I like the over and the Cubs

14:01

over right now, I got an eighty four and a half. It is

14:03

currently hold. Please want

14:05

to get the exact number, we'll use DraftKings

14:07

again. That number is

14:11

your hold music. They don't put him in order. It's sill

14:13

eighty four and a half. My favorite

14:15

season win total, and I'll throw it to Jason is

14:18

the San Diego Padres over.

14:20

And I know people like, what are you talking about? They don't have Wan

14:23

Soda, they don't have Blake Snell. That's true,

14:25

but last year they underperformed

14:28

much like the Cubs did, but by even more. They

14:31

were an eighty two win team, but

14:34

they should have been a ninety three win team

14:36

by pithag ninety

14:38

one. By sequencing, Yes

14:41

you are losing Sodo's production. Yes

14:44

you are losing Blake Snell's Smoke

14:46

and Mirrors production where he parlayed into

14:48

a cy Young but you still

14:50

have Fernando Tatist Junior, who

14:52

may not be the end of being the superstar we all thought he

14:54

was, but he's still a great player in there in

14:56

the middle. They have really

14:59

improved on

15:02

thin rotation with Michael King Randy Vasquez.

15:05

The bullpen is where they had the biggest issues

15:07

in twenty twenty three. They've made some smart

15:09

moves there as well. I think the Padres

15:11

have recognized that just producing or

15:13

putting an all star team out there on a daily basis

15:16

ain't the way to World Series

15:18

titles necessarily, and so they've

15:20

addressed some of their concerns.

15:22

So I love the Padres over.

15:23

I got them in eighty one and a half and they are currently

15:26

again forgive the hold music.

15:30

Why aren't these in order? By the way, in sportsbooks,

15:32

they're.

15:32

Actually at eighty three and a half now, so

15:34

that's gone way up. I still

15:36

like it, obviously not as much, and I would still play

15:39

it at eighty three and a half because again, you're not asking

15:41

them to win ninety

15:43

games, You're asking them to just go barely over five

15:46

hundred.

15:46

So I still like it at eighty three and a half.

15:48

Jason, I know you and I have sort of ratcheted

15:50

back season win totals in recent years.

15:52

Do you have any I do not

15:54

have anything I find particularly

15:56

exciting on the season win totals, which

15:59

doesn't mean I don't like yours, especially that Cubs

16:01

won. I think everybody in that.

16:03

Central Division is pretty interesting this.

16:05

Year except

16:09

the Cardinals.

16:10

I don't think Cardinals are going to win. You have another

16:12

team you can at least make case

16:15

for.

16:15

And you mentioned Saia Szuki

16:17

in his strong second half.

16:20

That's that's actually something.

16:21

That that I'm very excited about

16:24

as well. And you know, I don't

16:26

think he's a guy that's necessarily going to win

16:28

MVP. But I also did actually

16:30

find a future on him to hit the most

16:32

home runs at five hundred to one.

16:34

So another five hundred to one I.

16:36

Have there there you go.

16:38

I don't know.

16:38

I mean, maybe maybe those numbers, you know, maybe

16:41

just takes a year to get acclimated to baseball.

16:43

I mean, he is, he is one of the better hitters

16:46

from Japan that we've seen in a while

16:48

while. So yeah,

16:51

five hundred to one.

16:52

All I'm saying, Mark, I see

16:54

you with a I'm trying to read your facial

16:56

expression as I was going through my two overs.

16:58

Do you like those? Do you hate those?

17:01

I like the Cubs.

17:03

I guess my facial expressions were like a

17:05

little bit perplexed because I was really down

17:07

on the padres. But it

17:10

looks like the addition of Cease and

17:12

I think maybe King was they had

17:14

like Johnny Bravo or what's I don't know what that

17:16

guy Johnny Brido. I don't can't

17:19

remember the guy they got from the Yankees. But King

17:21

has kind of stepped in, and then Cease is they

17:24

got ceased and that makes a huge difference.

17:26

I mean, you want to talk about strikeout percentage,

17:28

Dylan Cees thirty two point two percent

17:30

strikeout percentage and then Michael

17:32

King at thirty one point two.

17:35

Muscrove is not too far behind at twenty eight

17:37

point five. I think where they go down for me,

17:39

Gil is you darvish. You look at

17:41

his last one hundred and fifty played appearance

17:43

strikeout percentage, and this is before this year.

17:45

I don't know what he did in the first in the first

17:48

first game against the Dodgers, I got to get that

17:50

updated note. So going

17:53

into the season, he was twenty one point eight percent

17:55

strikeout right, which is low. And then they

17:57

got a guy named Matt Waldron who is eighteen

18:00

point four percent as.

18:03

As their their sp five.

18:04

I think where it breaks down for me is looking

18:07

at their offensive ratings. And again

18:09

this is last five hundred plate appearances,

18:12

base runs adjusted for park. You can said, well

18:14

they play in San Diego. Well I took that

18:16

into account as well, and overall Gill number

18:19

twenty six in baseball and

18:21

then eighth in baseball for fielding.

18:23

But put it all together, they're right about where their number

18:26

is right now, where they've really gone up.

18:28

They've gone up.

18:29

The number for me

18:31

was in the seventies and now it's at eighty three point

18:33

five. So for me, it's a no play for the

18:35

Padres. And but I would tail you on the on the cups

18:37

there and he won twenty games,

18:40

So you know, I don't

18:42

know, like I've

18:44

bet under on that. I think that these guys that pulled

18:46

out,

18:50

if maybe could you give you could you just

18:52

bet Strider over?

18:53

But that's that's.

18:54

What I'm sure you could.

18:56

Yeah, your best Strider, because remember that

18:58

was the thing Strider might have gotten twenty last year

19:00

too.

19:00

Did he end up with Tony. He didn't, did he?

19:02

Yeah?

19:03

He did.

19:03

He ended up with twenty on the button. Right.

19:06

I almost bet Strider under.

19:08

Almost bet him under, but did not. Did not pull

19:10

the trigger on it, No, not.

19:11

Yeah, but I thought about because he hasn't been

19:13

injured, seriously injured in his career. I just think,

19:16

like, you know, what happens to every picture at this point,

19:18

sooner or later.

19:19

Like I've just been so wrong on.

19:20

Strider, I should probably just keep betting against him

19:23

at this point.

19:23

So I'm right, Yeah, the human arm was

19:25

not meant to do these things.

19:27

Uh.

19:27

And then finally, most home runs is set

19:29

at fifty three and a half, most

19:31

home runs by any player fifty three and a half, with the

19:33

under slightly juiced at minus one

19:35

thirty over over.

19:39

Oh I like you over on that one too, Yeah,

19:42

yeah, I do.

19:42

You're thinking Alonzo, Jason, who are you thinking?

19:44

Mark?

19:46

You know, well, it's it's a

19:48

big it's a big if. But if if

19:52

if two guys can do it, it could be Olsen,

19:54

it could be Judge. Those are my favorite guys.

19:57

But Olsen's tough, you know, so I'd

20:01

like Jason's play with Alonzo.

20:02

He's right up there.

20:03

You know, I did this adjusted home runs last

20:06

five hundred plate appearances, and he's really

20:08

close to Olson and Judge if you take

20:10

out the park factors, Judge is number two thirty

20:12

six point six and Alonzo's

20:14

real right close to him at thirty four

20:17

point one. So I kind of like Jason's

20:19

play out there with Alonzo. You know, I think

20:21

I'm going to make a play on this home run market with

20:23

so Lair though he's he's up there at top

20:26

five last five hundred plate appearances

20:28

thirty two point nine home runs, and

20:30

you say, well, he's going to San Francisco,

20:32

that's not going to help him out. Well, he's coming

20:35

from Miami, and the park factors

20:37

for handedness right there are actually better

20:39

by just a little bit in San Francisco. So I

20:41

think Solaria might be if you wanted to catch some value,

20:44

go with him. He was like twenty five to one.

20:46

Maybe.

20:46

Yeah, he's also a righty, right he's a right handed

20:48

hitter, so that's a little better than being a left handed

20:50

or you don't have the splash.

20:52

Omers factors for the

20:54

sit we're kind of similar. So like he's up

20:56

there towards the top on adjusted home runs, why

20:58

not so what was your bet on him over the total?

21:00

Or what did you bet on him?

21:02

Uh? So, lair in, I've got

21:04

a group of four home I'll go give all my four

21:06

home run winners.

21:07

Yes, you got to.

21:09

You gotta toutch this a little bit.

21:11

You get plus one thirty six. But I got Judge

21:13

Olsen, so Laire and Trout I'd liked,

21:15

I'd like the Jason's uh you

21:17

know, Trout was he was up there last year and he

21:19

got hurt, so maybe the guy would be healthy this year. But

21:21

if you group them and you bet them accordingly, you get

21:24

plus one thirty six that group.

21:25

That's kind of how I like to play these futures.

21:27

Gil As, I remember that about you. You do a little four

21:29

four player clusters. Yep,

21:32

all right, what else are you holding from us?

21:34

Mark?

21:34

What else did you bet? What else do you like?

21:36

I'll give you.

21:37

I'll give you like my like like I'll

21:39

give you one player from

21:42

each of my group of five for all the awards.

21:44

So if you guys, you guys want them all, you got to come

21:46

over to base winner dot com. But I I'll

21:48

give you Okay, So I'll give you like a like a long

21:50

shot for n L m v P Martes

21:54

and my group of five Kendl Marte from the d

21:56

Backs. Oh Man, I'd like as a

21:58

as a chalk guy for al MVP

22:00

at like uh Soto at six

22:03

to one, he's got you know, he's actually

22:05

got really good base run creative numbers

22:07

even with the with the park factor, with what park

22:09

factors had jefted. He gets a little bit of bump because he played

22:11

in San Diego. And then so al

22:14

Cy Young, I'm gonna give you,

22:16

Oh, I'm going to give you one of my favorite guys

22:18

at one hundred to one. And it's

22:20

not Zac Efron and Zach Eflin

22:23

and Dak Epflin.

22:24

We used to just joke.

22:25

About him Gil right, So he used to he

22:28

was like, this guy's a legitimate

22:30

he's a thirty percent strikeout guy. Last

22:32

hundred and fifty plate appearance, he really turned the

22:34

corner. And uh, I like

22:37

him. And then and then I'll give you

22:39

my top guy. This is for Jason Nlsai

22:41

young s rider plus four fifty. He's in my group

22:44

of five.

22:46

Yeah, hey base winner.

22:48

Let me let let me ask

22:50

you, same team, different

22:53

pitcher, what do you think of Chris Sayle for

22:55

for sires.

22:56

Yeh, I like

22:59

that, Jason. I think

23:01

that like sales.

23:02

Like his strikeout numbers were up last

23:04

year's last one fifty.

23:06

I'm trying to pull it up here. You know.

23:08

It's funny because then when I'm filtering it down, I filtered

23:10

it down to Boston, and he's not on Boston, He's

23:12

on Atlanta. So it's really funny how how

23:15

the mind works. But if you look at at

23:17

his last one to fifty strikeout

23:19

percentage, it's right at thirty percent, twenty

23:22

nine point nine percent, good control at

23:24

six point five percent. Definitely

23:26

potential for him, and guy, wouldn't it be

23:28

great if for me if Sale does

23:31

does get close to that?

23:33

Jason, I gotta.

23:34

Tell you the guy, the guys that smoke the most in this

23:36

casine.

23:36

I'm fifty to one. I'm a big sale fan.

23:38

Fifty to one. Yeah, like this

23:41

just in Chris Sale Place or the Atlanta Braves.

23:45

I'm doing this from the d in downtown

23:47

Las Vegas. We don't have a studio. We're at a table here

23:49

in the Mill casino, and the person

23:51

who smells like a chimney always wants to

23:53

get closest to us.

23:54

It is just I cannot stop calling.

23:57

All right, anything else mark

24:00

that you've bet I love these.

24:02

No, I I gave out. I gave out quite a bit.

24:05

Yeah, like I've gone a

24:07

lot more though, but like go.

24:09

To baseball show me some love, guys,

24:11

yeah me some show him some

24:13

love at baswinter dot com

24:16

at base Winter on Twitter. He'll

24:18

do the bet Us Show Monday

24:20

through Friday. Yes, every every weekday morning.

24:23

Yeah, I think they're giving me Wednesday off so that

24:26

but for the first two weeks. For the first two weeks,

24:28

I'm I'm going straight through, so you

24:30

know, one of them. In all seriousness, it's a

24:32

great opportunity for anybody

24:34

who wants to ask a question going over that's

24:36

a that's my favorite part of the show.

24:38

It's just the interaction with people.

24:39

Why do you take Why do you take Wednesdays off?

24:41

Isn't that the most baseball games all

24:44

day long? Why do you take that day off?

24:45

You know what? Because I asked for it. I don't even

24:47

know. I think it's the least a

24:50

request.

24:51

Last year, my

24:54

favorite days to go are Tuesday

24:56

and Friday, so like like

24:58

Friday is like my favorite baseball

25:01

day. It's it's like a Sunday Football Day

25:03

for me, I don't know what it is. And now

25:05

Apple TV's got the got the Friday

25:07

Night Baseball and I think that the production is really

25:09

really good. The quality of the video on

25:11

Apple TV is so good and

25:13

so it's exciting. Friday is my favorite day. Tuesday

25:16

followed by on Tuesday. Tuesday is usually a full

25:18

card too, Gill.

25:19

And that's why I go on your show. See that's strategic.

25:21

There you go, there you go, all right,

25:23

never mind you call my show on Wednesdays. Whatever, Jason,

25:26

I feel like we didn't get everything from you.

25:27

Did wait? Or did you give us all everything?

25:29

You bet? Or less.

25:32

Got a couple of things left.

25:34

I actually also bet the solaiir

25:36

over home run profit.

25:37

I think you're on twenty seven and a half, so we're

25:40

both on there. I bet that a couple of weeks

25:42

ago. I'm a big fan of Solaire.

25:44

He gets a lot of line gets a lot of a bats

25:46

batting clean up in that lineup, so

25:49

nice, nice spot for him. Another

25:53

long shot I bet today This

25:56

one might might excite you a little, Big Bill.

25:58

It's also giants pet it's

26:00

for Cy Young. I think there's a potential

26:02

Cy Young contender.

26:05

Every year there's kind of a couple of random new

26:07

guys who kind of throw away into the mix one way or the

26:09

other, and at big odds at two hundred

26:11

to one this year, I like Jordan Hicks,

26:13

yes, the converted

26:16

converted reliever from Saint

26:19

Louis. It's very possible Saint

26:21

Louis just had another guy that they

26:23

were using incorrectly.

26:25

And you know, Randy Rose, Raina.

26:28

Doles Garcia come to mind as guys

26:30

who just kind of were wasted in the

26:33

in the Cardinals system, and

26:35

maybe Hicks just needed to get a change of scenery

26:38

and to move from a reliever to a starter.

26:40

He's having a pretty dominant spring. I'm

26:43

happy to take a shot there at two hundred to one.

26:45

Actually have somebody going to Westgate right now

26:47

to bet that for me,

26:50

so hopefully that gets done

26:52

before this goes on the air.

26:54

Jason used to send me to the Westgate for his

26:56

two hundred and one shots before I was persona

26:58

non groud over there. Hicks.

27:00

Yesterday five innings pitched ten

27:02

K's, one walk, no

27:05

hits, five innings of hitless

27:07

ball with ten K's against one walk.

27:09

I'llbeit against the athletics, So you know,

27:11

take that for what it's worth. But Jordan Hicks

27:14

seven consecutive strikeouts in that

27:16

ball game. And I'll just say it again

27:18

about the Giants, Logan Web

27:21

Brandon, excuse me, Brandon still

27:24

Blake Snell? Where to get Brandon from?

27:27

Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks

27:29

in far Han? We trust far Han Zaidi,

27:32

the GM.

27:33

Of the Giant.

27:35

If someone said, I

27:37

want to make one bet for

27:40

the season long twenty twenty four baseball

27:42

season, are you guys are have the audacity

27:45

of doing this podcast only two days

27:47

before the season starts. Yes, I know that we're two games

27:49

in Korea. Mark alluded to them

27:51

earlier, but of the real

27:54

regular season two days away. I

27:56

only I want to make one bet. It

27:58

could be a futures bet. It could be a

28:00

season win totals bet. It

28:02

could be a to make or miss the playoffs. It could be

28:04

an award, It could be anything we've just discussed.

28:07

Mark, what bet would you tell them

28:09

to make right now?

28:10

One I would say, I would say, take

28:12

about half of your Vanguard account out,

28:15

and not that I did

28:17

this, but and then.

28:18

Just just lay lay the wood with the braves.

28:20

I don't see the Braves getting getting beat the

28:22

team the best offense in the history of the game

28:25

with a cy young contender, and then

28:27

you know, uh, Jason like Sale

28:29

Freed they got and the Bullpen's good.

28:32

Top three.

28:32

Depending on what metric you're using, I

28:34

would I would definitely lay two

28:37

forty with half your Vanguard

28:39

account.

28:42

This is, by the way, this is not financial advice.

28:44

This is just the advice of Mark Porcher base Wind.

28:47

I thought you were going to say lay the wood on the Brewers

28:49

on your long shot Brewers plays.

28:50

But no, you went with Braves. You went chalk here. Okay,

28:53

Jason, same question. What would you say to.

28:55

Someone, I'd tell them

28:57

to split it up between a couple different O'Neil

28:59

Cruz because if he stays healthy,

29:01

I think his his

29:04

his futures and his home run tolls

29:06

and everything are very mispriced.

29:09

You know, a lot of his projections are based on

29:11

him playing one hundred and twenty five or one hundred

29:13

and thirty games as opposed to one

29:15

hundred and forty or one hundred and fifty.

29:17

And I just really like him as a

29:19

as a player.

29:21

Similar to how I bet the Tani

29:23

MVP several years ago, I

29:25

bet O'Neil Cruz to win the MVP last year

29:27

and he got hurt. He came back the spring

29:30

he looks, you know, the same, if not

29:32

better. He's always going to be a

29:34

high strikeout guy. But it's just

29:36

sort of a matter

29:38

of I was gonna say

29:40

fact, but it's a matter of height in this In

29:43

this case, he's six seven. He's

29:46

just a unique skill set for

29:48

that size.

29:50

Most guys that size.

29:51

Don't run that fast, they don't

29:53

you know, they don't swing a bat the way

29:55

he does.

29:56

He has like five of the ten.

29:58

Or five of the seven hardest balls, and spring

30:00

training he can go down and

30:03

hit ball out of out of the strike zone

30:05

and turn around on them that other

30:07

players just don't have.

30:09

The wingspan to get to.

30:11

We don't hear the word wingspan

30:13

used very often in baseball. You

30:16

know, you hear it in football, year at basketball. But O'Neil

30:19

Cruz has this massive wing span. It allows him

30:21

to expand this right because it allows him to get

30:24

on pitches that you know you

30:26

hear sort of it is not an exaggeration, but like,

30:28

oh, he got under this fly ball and it just kept

30:30

going and it was a home run. There's

30:33

a couple of guys who could do that, but he's

30:35

one of them, and it just has to do with his size and his

30:37

wingspan. And I personally

30:40

always look for the most

30:42

unique, the most athletic players, and

30:44

Otani fit that profile when he won his

30:46

first MVP.

30:47

Cruz pits that profile.

30:49

Now and it's just sort of a thing

30:51

where until he remains

30:53

healthy and you know, shows the world

30:55

what he could do, because he really hasn't

30:57

done and done it on a stage yet,

31:00

he's going to be mispriced. And when he does

31:03

get restore, he does player

31:06

I.

31:06

Think he could. We're going to see

31:08

him more like a ten to one.

31:10

M VP as opposed to a sixty

31:12

five to one, So I think there's some about there. I

31:15

think there's value on his home run over it's

31:17

still twenty seven.

31:18

He can easily get closer to forty.

31:20

At full help, and then the Pirates

31:23

to win the division at fifteen to one, sixteen

31:25

to one.

31:26

They're they're being aggressive this year. I

31:28

see that that.

31:29

Jared Jones made the row

31:31

the opening day roster starting pitching.

31:34

Sure, Paul, Paul, how

31:36

do you say it's Skennis? Is SKENNI

31:38

is right?

31:39

I thought it was I thought it was you, Skeens.

31:41

I think Skeens, I think

31:43

Steens.

31:44

Yeah.

31:44

Whatever. That's

31:46

the thing. I don't get paid to these guys' names.

31:48

I get paid to bet on him, so I never never

31:51

know how their.

31:52

Names when I don't, you know, but

31:55

Skiing, he's he's going to be

31:57

a may It

31:59

looked it's like the

32:01

the Pirates are starting him in triple A

32:03

and they plan to be aggressive with him.

32:05

So the Pirates are going for it this year. It

32:07

seems I'm

32:10

cool with that.

32:10

I think I encourage teams to go

32:12

for it because the whole building for next year thing

32:14

is always sort of stupid because

32:17

because halftime, I mean never gets

32:19

next year.

32:20

Yeah, and it's like, you know, it worked for the Astros

32:23

and everybody thought they could do what the Astros did. But

32:25

the Orioles they're good now, But I

32:27

mean remember the Orioles were mired in this for

32:29

six seven years. So it's like, I

32:32

agree with you. I completely agree with you. Keep

32:35

in mind, with season win totals, you also have to handicap

32:38

folks. You know which teams

32:40

are more likely to buy than they are to sell.

32:42

At the trade deadline at the end of July, that's

32:44

obviously a big calculus. I was going to finish

32:47

with these two questions, but you guys might have answered it already,

32:49

which is betting,

32:51

yes, but also betting aside. Give

32:54

me the club in the American League, in the National

32:56

League that is off

32:59

the radar from most people that you

33:01

think could sneak into the postseason. And

33:04

then the second part of that question is that it actually makes

33:06

some noise in the postseason. I guess you

33:09

answered it, Jason with the Pirates to get

33:11

into the postseason. Mark, I won't

33:14

allow the Brewers as the answer to the question. Give

33:16

me another team that you think.

33:19

I would say the Giants. I think that's good how

33:21

you're playing that. And then you know the other

33:23

team that could be have really

33:26

good upside is the Tigers

33:28

because of their rotation. The rotation is

33:30

that Scooball for me, and I

33:33

hate to give another playoff, but I will like I like

33:35

Scooball. I think he's uh, he's he's worth

33:37

putting in that group of five, uh

33:40

for your al Cy Young. But they

33:42

they've got some upside, they got some high ceiling

33:44

with their guys.

33:45

Who is the team?

33:46

All right?

33:47

Then, who is the team that could sneak into the postseason

33:49

that actually then is built for postseason

33:51

success.

33:52

I would say the Giants.

33:54

I don't know who you would say to that, Mark, we

33:58

lost your we lost your mic, Mark All, we

34:00

just lost your mic.

34:01

Are you back?

34:02

Oh we've lost Mark portrait. Jason,

34:04

I'll go to you. Will he figures it back out?

34:06

Jason?

34:08

Can I answer a slightly different question,

34:10

please, This isn't a team that's gonna kind

34:12

of This isn't a team that's going.

34:13

To be a surprise to make the playoffs.

34:15

But looking at Baltimore, because you mentioned

34:18

Baltimore went through like six seven years

34:20

of a very painful rebuild

34:22

where everybody laughed at them and was

34:24

like, oh, look they.

34:25

Don't know what they're doing. They're not trying to win, but

34:27

they really have been building something.

34:29

And if you follow their teams in the minor leagues

34:32

the last couple of years and you see the guys coming

34:35

through, it's been very impressive. I just wanted

34:37

to point out the spring and

34:39

this is one of the reasons that I'm going to be very sad

34:41

that spring training is ending today. It's for

34:44

all practical purposes, it ended a couple days ago, but

34:46

The Orioles ended spring with a twenty

34:50

three and six record, seven

34:52

ninety three win percent, highest

34:54

win total in their history, highest win total

34:57

since twenty seventeen, the

34:59

highest win percent since twenty

35:01

six to sixty and spring training obviously, and

35:05

you don't get a ring for winning spring training,

35:07

but twenty three and six is

35:10

a great way for that locker

35:12

room to start the year.

35:13

This is a dominant team.

35:15

That is being built, and I

35:17

think we're not We're not really realizing

35:20

how good it is because a lot of these names, like

35:22

obviously, you know, we know Gunner Henderson,

35:24

we know Adlie Retchman, but they

35:26

have a whole roster of dudes in Triple A

35:29

that just come up and mash.

35:31

It's gonna be fun to watch.

35:32

It's a it's a great point.

35:33

No bets for you, though, on them to win the Division

35:36

or the Pennant or the World Series.

35:37

Nothing from you.

35:38

You can bet the over.

35:40

My advice if you're going to bet a team like

35:42

the Orioles or the Dodgers, bet

35:45

an exact World Series matchup. Don't

35:49

bet the Dodgers to beat the Orioles.

35:52

Just bet the to make the you

35:54

know, to be in the World Series.

35:56

Because there's there's there's two

35:58

different markets.

35:59

There's the exist act that finish,

36:01

and then there's there's the and

36:05

not the who's going to be?

36:06

Who?

36:06

I just want booth? You get

36:09

Braves fan. I think the Braves are gonna make it, Dodgers

36:12

are gonna make it. Whoever you can narrow

36:14

it down to Dodgers, Rays, Dodgers,

36:17

Orioles options

36:19

they are really confident in and

36:21

you'll probably get a slightly.

36:22

Better pay out that way.

36:24

And if assuming all those teams get

36:26

in the playoffs at least and.

36:29

Deal with your options at that point.

36:30

But if I was looking at the Orioles at net

36:32

Orile was Oriolers.

36:36

Really hard to see anybody after that, But you.

36:38

Know, Orioles giants, if you wanted

36:40

that or whatever, That's how I had

36:43

play it.

36:43

I I agree with that. There's no point in trying

36:45

to.

36:45

Be pirates would probably pay pretty good, Oh

36:48

my god.

36:48

Would it? Uh?

36:49

I agree with you, there's no there's no point in trying

36:51

to be a hero and getting all that

36:53

way, having picked the two World Series

36:57

teams and then losing it because

36:59

you picked.

37:00

One team to beat the other and it didn't happen that way.

37:03

By the way that Orioles point you made about the spring training

37:05

needs to be emphasized. I got a tweet

37:07

about this yesterday on a Numbers game. Somebody was like,

37:10

Hey, same thing. I know it's spring

37:12

training, but here's the record, Like is that a

37:14

thing? And I said, Tom, I go, Usually I

37:16

wouldn't give a damn about the team's spring

37:18

training record, like our whole lives are filled with teams

37:21

that had good springs and then they didn't

37:23

do anything in the regular season. But this

37:25

is so off the charts that you do have to

37:27

sit up and take notice. And I mentioned

37:30

exactly what you just said. I brought you up, Jason, I said,

37:32

and Jason sends me the

37:34

text of like what the Orioles lineup

37:36

does to bullpens. As soon

37:38

as the bullpen gets it in spring training, they

37:41

just destroy them. So

37:43

yeah, they might be. They might be. You

37:46

know I said earlier, they overperformed

37:48

their pithag and their sequencing.

37:50

That doesn't mean they're not good.

37:52

They just might have overperformed it and they'll rise

37:55

to occasion this year again if not better.

37:58

Mark, where do we interrupted when

38:00

your mic went out?

38:02

I was talking about trek Scuble

38:04

I think, and how much. I like

38:06

him.

38:07

He's actually my base winner number one. He's got

38:09

the best base winner rating based on those

38:11

metrics, last fifty one point fifty strikeout

38:13

percentage, last three hundred walk percentage,

38:16

and then last one fifty expected round

38:18

ball rate, and he's

38:21

got an expected ERA of one point

38:23

seven eight best in baseball.

38:25

So you know, I think he's at nine

38:27

to one in the market. That's a good price for

38:29

this guy.

38:30

Scooble si on nine to one. I

38:32

like it all right. Oh, last question, Mark, I did ask

38:34

you this. I left it hanging.

38:35

Team that's built for postseason success that

38:37

most people don't think we'll get in the playoffs.

38:39

Could be who.

38:41

They're built for postseason success, but they won't

38:43

get in the playoffs.

38:44

I don't know if that. That's a tough question. I don't I can't

38:46

work.

38:47

He could get it or could get into the playoffs and are

38:49

built for postseason success.

38:51

I think the Razor. I think that's the team

38:53

that everybody's sleeping on.

38:54

I mean, they've got the best bullpen, that's starting

38:57

pitching, the hitting serviceable.

38:58

You like that.

38:59

That to me is a uh that if

39:01

there's a surprise, that's a surprise.

39:03

All right, boys, I think we've I think we've

39:05

done enough here and again. If you want more of Mark

39:07

stuff, go to basewinter dot com. The

39:10

great Mark Borchard cousin

39:12

of Joe Borchard at base

39:14

Winner.

39:14

What's Joe Borchard doing these days?

39:16

Mark?

39:16

Former ball play?

39:17

He lives here? He actually lives in Phoenix

39:20

here.

39:20

He's he's like a he's like a high up at one of

39:22

the like a produce company.

39:24

Oh nice, So yeah, yeah, he's he's

39:26

a Stanford guy, so like you would expect

39:28

that.

39:29

He has a brain. That's right.

39:30

Uh, Mark Borchard again from a undisclosed location

39:33

somewhere in the desert. Uh bet us

39:35

the name of his show that he's doing, which

39:37

he used to do with Jason Wangarden. Jason, there

39:39

is no finer mind than

39:42

you and Mark. And we'll throw Paul Sporer

39:44

into that group as well. Joe Peita

39:46

when he was doing baseball too, but he has since retired.

39:48

Although Joe Peter, by the way, Uh,

39:50

he told me he said he was back in baby

39:52

he made one bet in Korea. He went one to

39:54

oher on the padres and then he

39:57

said he thinks what did he tell

39:59

me? I on, let me give a Joe Pete. Bet is

40:01

Joe Pete rising from the dead to make a

40:03

baseball play.

40:04

I think he was bored. What did he say?

40:07

I think I think you can accuse him of being a homer

40:09

on this once I get through here.

40:11

It is he has bet

40:14

dude to do.

40:15

To do it, he got the padres in that game, but what if he

40:17

has a season long I think he says

40:19

he likes the Phillies. I

40:21

don't want to misquote him though, and now I

40:23

can't find it, but I think he's high on the fah

40:26

yes he is.

40:26

Hold on what is it?

40:27

Phillies over eighty nine and a half?

40:30

Didn't say they'd beat them braves, Phillies over

40:32

eighty nine aine, I.

40:33

Think play gil.

40:35

I have them over there there total like

40:37

significantly, And that's why I think that that exact

40:40

is a I mean it's like plus one point forty

40:42

I've got it like happening. I don't know, eighty ninety

40:44

percent something like that. Okay, that's

40:47

that's a favorite of mine.

40:48

So yeah, I like it.

40:49

And Jason at

40:51

Spreadipedia still coming

40:53

on a numbers game. We love having you twice

40:55

a week on a numbers game. The only guy that

40:58

comes on the show twice a week. Is my only guess

41:00

that I'm allowed to come on twice a week. Not

41:02

even you, Mark, even if you beg no, I

41:04

would if you let me, if you wanted to, I would. But

41:07

Jason twice a week on a numbers game. Where else

41:09

can people find you anywhere else, Jason? Or should they just go

41:11

to spread Apedia?

41:14

That's about it. I'll be on Beyond Vison.

41:16

I'm write in a little bit visa.

41:19

Just plug an out article each week, talk about

41:21

futures, see where the market's at, and we'll

41:24

hopefully keep track of everything this year and

41:27

then have a have a nice winning year. And

41:29

yeah, Beyond be on your show. That's that's probably where

41:32

you're gonna find me.

41:32

I love it. Let's do it.

41:33

Jason Winegarden and Mark Borcherd

41:36

the best in the business. Thank you,

41:38

guys. Good luck to all of you with

41:40

all of your baseball bets both

41:43

opening day and season longs. Can't

41:45

wait for the season to start.