The S&P’s performance after “shock events” shows, unsurprisingly, that the ones that caused no damage to the economy had the least impact on the market, and vice versa. The oil price is steady post Iranian attacks on Israel, suggesting the latter this time.

While the Yom Kippur War and Oil Embargo of 1973 strike parallels with today, the global economy is less than half as reliant on oil as it was then. There are many other suppliers apart from the Middle East, and no one is talking about an embargo today. March CPI inflation at 3.5% year/year has caused concerns that inflation is beginning to trend higher again. But the culprits driving it (auto insurance and rents) are likely to come down.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.