Pre-ShowThe PlanB indicator is flashing bull market (https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1722947159308259733?t=5tu5Eb_ilj387fA9ljWFAA&s=09) /sNewsAdopting BitcoinConference stats:1100 attendees350 Salvadoran Over 150 sessionsEl Salvador’s Rating Raised by S&P on Local Debt Refinancing (https://archive.ph/Y0YUN)Remember that the downgrade was partially attributed to bitcoin (https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-el-salvador-long-term-idr-to-ccc-from-b-09-02-2022) but also focused on the country's reliance on short term debt financingTourism, a major economic driver in El Salvador, plummeted during the 2020 pandemic (https://www.statista.com/statistics/816553/el-salvador-number-of-tourist-arrivals/) but has increased sharply2023 numbers are also higher (https://elsalvadorinenglish.com/2023/07/13/milestone-achieved-el-salvadors-tourism-soars-with-1-6-million-visitors-in-2023/) driven by hosting international events such as Adopting Bitcoin and the 📈 El Salvador exceeded projections, welcoming 1.6 million visitors by June, emphasizing the impact of hosting international events on this achievement.💵 The country received approximately $1.6 billion in foreign currency by June, approaching the $2.9 billion target for 2023, contributing significantly to economic growth.EconomicsGermany, the beating heart of global manufacturing is already in recession (https://archive.ph/HzyQU) and the rest of the world will followA US Treasury auction has just failed (https://snort.social/e/nevent1qqs0anj7arysssgkm7d5mc020wxmjmqqwj8qy22jrqmrkef2qy22cucpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqzyr4tpe6k6v4cp0x5vneas39cqspsxp66z04tcdve5a3vntr6hy057qcyqqqqqqgcxca6y), welcome to the End GameThe Periphery (https://blog.bitmex.com/the-periphery/)Bull vs Bear steepeners> When the recession or financial calamity occurs, short-end rates will fall quickly as the Fed aggressively cuts its policy rate in response. That is the “oh shit” moment. The yield curve un-inverts and then steepens (long-end rates higher than short-end rates), but it will do so while yields are generally falling. This is called a “bull steepener” and is the classic way the yield curve has moved in modern financial history.> > Right now, there is no US recession and no financial calamity. To the intellectually dishonest TradFi cheerleaders like Paul Krugman, the regional banking crisis doesn’t count; they will need to see a firm like Bank of America go bust to acknowledge the deep rot in the US banking system. Therefore, the market, aka bond vigilantes, expect the Fed to continue raising rates to fight inflation. But the Fed said rate hikes are paused, therefore the bull steepening scenario won’t occur. Then why should the vigilantes continue holding long-end bonds? They won’t, and they will express their view by selling long-end bonds at the margin.Solution is for US Gov to cut spending and increase income, will exacerbate recessionThis is completely impossible the US Secret service spends ~$3bn/year just protecting the president (https://www.usaspending.gov/federal_account/070-0400)Interest rate hedging means that higher short term rates bankrupt banksBear steepener bankrupts banksPre-payment of mortages bankrupts banksAll of these things mean selling treasuries> Underneath the veneer of record-breaking profits is a ticking time bomb hidden in the recesses of Too Big To Fail global banks. I’m talking about the likes of JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, Nomura, etc. They sold trillions of notional worth of these products to desperate pension and insurance companies, and now will find themselves gushing losses larger than Three Arrows Capital. To hedge and stop the bleeding, these banks all must trade the same way. The more they hedge, the more they lose. All of this is due to the bear steepener, which is a direct result of Fed and global central banking policy. Talk about a TradFi human centipede.The FED Raising rates is not about fighting inflation, its about preventing a Bear Steepener in the bond market that kills the TBTF banks, but at the cost of killing the regional banksAlready $780bn in loses ONLY on US Tbills, btw equity in the US banking system is only $2.2 Trillion (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QBPBSTLKTEQKTBKEQK)PrivacyExchanges in the UK want to KYC every crypto transaction (https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/gemini-uk-to-prohibit-regular-bitcoin-transactions/) for Travel Rule complianceMake using custodial crypto exchanges more onerous and dangerousWill likely reduce crypto adoption but incentivize decentralized exchange"From 1st December 2023, Gemini may freeze and/or restrict users who are attempting to make inbound transfers to Gemini from a non-TRUST VASP. This is due to these transactions potentially missing the required information to ensure transparency of the transaction."AltcoinsDavid Gerad and Amy Castor cover the latest [crypto scams](https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2023/11/02/crypto-collapse-bankman-fried-trial-draws-to-a-close-safemoon-arrested-fourth-us-bank-failure-was-crypto/FTX creditors are suing SBF's parents alledging plundering of assets (https://amyhcastor.files.wordpress.com/2023/09/doc-2642-ftx-sues-sams-parents.pdf)A small Kansas bank failed (https://archive.ph/nBg3G#selection-4829.31-4829.55) after the CEO fell for a 'fattening the pig' scamVisa Corporation’s ad spend on Twitter dropped from $77,500 in Q3 2022 to just $10.00 — that’s ten dollars — in Q3 2023.Bitcoin EducationBitcoin Optech documents the imminent death of the bitcoin dev mailing list (https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2023/11/08/) and lightig enhancements with covenantsFeedbackRemember to get in touch [email protected] or @bitcoindadpod (https://mobile.twitter.com/bitcoindadpod) on twitterConsider joining the matrix channel (https://matrix.to/#/#bitcoin:jupiterbroadcasting.com) using a matrix client like element (https://element.io/get-started), details here (https://www.jupiterbroadcasting.com/community/matrix/)Thank you BoostersIf you get some value from this show, please consider sending a boost. Hearing from you means a lot to us!Send a Boost via the Podcast Index web page. No Podcast app upgrade required. Install Alby (https://getalby.com/)Find the Bitcoin Dad Pod on the Podcast Index (https://podcastindex.org/podcast/5049889)Boost right from the page!Send a re-ocurring or one-off lightning boost to the show with no message at [email protected] or directly to Chris at [email protected] for ValuePodcasting 2.0 to support an indepenent podcasting ecosystem (https://podcastindex.org/)Recomended Podcasting2.0 apps:Fountain (https://www.fountain.fm/) podcast app (Android)Podverse (https://podverse.fm/) (Cross platform and self hostable) + Alby (https://getalby.com/) for boostsCastamatic (https://apps.apple.com/us/app/castamatic-podcast-player/id966632553) (Apple)Sponsors and AcknowledgementsMusic by Lesfm from PixabaySelf Hosted Show (https://selfhosted.show/) courtesy of Jupiter Broadcasting (https://www.jupiterbroadcasting.com/)