0:05

Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

0:07

I'm Tom Keane. Along with Jonathan

0:10

Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz Jay

0:12

Ley, we bring you insight from the best

0:14

and economics, finance, investment, and

0:17

international relations. To find Bloomberg

0:19

Surveillance on Apple podcast, Suncloud,

0:22

Bloomberg dot Com and of course on

0:25

the Bloomberg terminal. Chisel

0:29

and Marble at Princeton a few years

0:31

ago, and Joan Bavan joins us today.

0:33

What was it like to go in front

0:35

of your PhD advisors at

0:38

Princeton? Who were those guys? Uh?

0:42

Ben Bernankee, Mike, Michael Woodford,

0:44

Mark Watson, Michael Watt Watson was

0:46

my man advisor. Um, that was

0:48

it was. It was a great momentum.

0:51

I would not have remembered the title if you have not said

0:53

it, so thanks for bringing that up. No, it's very

0:55

very cool. I mean, do you have Bernankey moving one

0:57

way on economics and Michael Woodford with a

0:59

math maddox on the other side. Must

1:01

have been intimidating. Is that kind of

1:03

brain power gonna show itself at

1:06

Jackson Hole this year? Are we gonna dovetail

1:08

the mathematics of Woodford

1:10

with the more holistic economics

1:13

of Bernanke at Jackson Hole Young. Uh.

1:17

Interesting, to be honest, we're we're we're

1:19

kind of wondering what will really happen there.

1:21

UM. Our view is that there's

1:24

maybe too much hope that this is gonna be

1:26

a policy signaling exercise,

1:28

Uh, especially around the paper. So

1:30

I think this might be a disappointment

1:33

and uh, maybe returning more to hardcore

1:36

kind of like academic input to policy

1:38

making, like we've that used to be the

1:40

case maybe with a yet this last year

1:42

with the framework review so on. Based

1:45

on your tenure at the Bank of Canada, based on

1:47

your experience with central bankers and having them

1:49

as colleagues, do you think that they're concerned

1:52

by how much control they have are perceived

1:54

control by markets over not

1:56

only benchmark rates, but just risk appetite

1:59

in general. Um

2:01

concerned. I'm I'm thinking they're pretty

2:04

aware of you know, central

2:06

central making has been in the front stage for

2:09

since two thousand eight. Uh, we

2:11

only came in town, So I think they've gotten used

2:13

to the attention and the center role

2:15

that they're playing. I think this is evolving

2:18

though, UM and uh in our view,

2:20

like fiscal policies is now taking

2:22

the baton from from them will

2:24

be more so going forward. So I think we're kind

2:27

of a juncture where things are changing a bit.

2:29

But I think their concern is probably more about,

2:32

like how they communicate around the

2:34

current situation. I think the potential

2:37

for mistake is pretty high. We've seen

2:39

it. I think we're losing a bit of a long

2:41

term anchor on on ten year yields, for instance,

2:43

and I think this is largely due to on

2:46

certainly around the Central Bank. You know,

2:48

out looking, we're losing a long term anchor

2:51

on a ten year yields. Elaborate, please,

2:53

what does that mean to you? I

2:55

think when you look at the price movement from the

2:57

last two months, right we went from pricing and nation

3:00

fears uh with tenuiels

3:02

that were on the way up to what we see

3:04

now is a complete disconnect between the macro

3:07

outlook and you know the woman we've

3:09

seen in yields um you know. Various

3:11

explanations for that, technical and so on, but I think

3:13

one of them is, you know, a big debate

3:15

around what the Central ban is actually doing. Markets

3:18

trying to digest that your framework, and I

3:20

think that's part of the story there. John.

3:23

I look at the entire economics

3:26

right now in the word that we keep talking about here

3:28

between John and Lisa and me, and we make jokes

3:30

about it, but it's really serious microeconomic

3:33

foundations. Which is the ambiguity

3:36

of what's going to happen given

3:38

a given thrust in inflation. What's

3:41

the key ambiguity of

3:43

which way the financial system

3:45

cuts given a higher inflation?

3:48

What's the key mystery?

3:51

Well, I think, I think Tom, this is exactly

3:53

Uh. You know, what I think is very unusual about

3:56

the current situation is that the range of

3:58

outcome that we are templating collectively,

4:01

bit on inflation, bit on what the central nights

4:03

will be doing, even on growth, what is it

4:06

a restart? Is it at the beginning of a longer

4:08

kind of you know, expansion. This is

4:10

a pretty wide range of

4:12

of outcome, and I think the markets in those

4:14

environments tend to interpret

4:16

the news flow and then go from one kind

4:19

of potential outcome to the other. Uh.

4:21

And and these are more like binary kind of

4:23

outcome, and that creates like the volatility what we're

4:26

saying, I think, I think what where there's

4:28

consensus is that this is a pretty constructive

4:30

environment for RISCO we're seeing that inequities.

4:32

Of course, we're pro risk. We're

4:35

to be prosc at the stage, so that is kind

4:37

of consensus. But from here on

4:39

the unusually wide range, and I think we're gonna

4:41

we're facing binary outcomes. John Pharaoh

4:44

has led our discussion here of stock

4:46

and flow, and I would suggest

4:48

when we look at the death, the deficit is a

4:50

static object. It's a

4:52

bathtub. That's the size of an Olympic

4:54

pool should be Should we

4:57

be worried about the stocks

4:59

the size of the pool that's built up

5:01

of these things we worry about. Yeah,

5:05

I think I think there's been uh we

5:07

we left the stock a bit out of the picture. But

5:10

like if you if you just take a step back

5:12

and look since COVID, uh, the amount

5:15

of spending that has been like put on the table,

5:17

including with the infrastructure build this week and

5:19

the reconciliation, we're gonna see no

5:22

going forward. We're talking about like amounting

5:24

a total of GDP

5:26

and new spending that you know we didn't

5:28

we didn't have pre COVID. That's

5:31

a large amount. That's your stock point.

5:34

Um, we are comfortable or you

5:36

know, pretty relaxed about this, given the

5:38

rate they're saying, but

5:41

I think we're much more now subject

5:44

and uh, and we're facing a fragile

5:46

environment where if there are adjustment

5:48

in rates, it's going to be a lot more disruptive

5:50

with the stock much larger now,

5:53

Jean, before we let you go, Dean Courne on

5:55

the show earlier said that the inflation

5:58

is contained is the same as sub our

6:00

prime is contained of today. That basically,

6:02

Uh, this is a faith based assertion

6:05

that has yet to be proven, and it really goes

6:07

to your call about the question marks

6:09

underpinning where treasure yields are today. Do you

6:11

agree that inflation is

6:13

controlled is the same kind of

6:16

view as subprime is contained of

6:18

two thousand seven two thousand six.

6:21

Yeah, I think I think it's even more than subprime

6:24

because inflation is in my view

6:26

and our view of purely self fulfilling phenomenal

6:28

ultimately, so it's what we what we believe

6:31

or markets believe it to be. UM

6:33

and I think we're seeing that the elements

6:35

for inflation to to break out to our

6:37

level, we think it's going to be contained.

6:40

Ultimately that's still like kind

6:42

of our baseline, but that's only given.

6:44

That's far from a given. An episode in the past where inflation

6:47

got out of end. I mean, we're not expected,

6:50

you know, before they happen. So I think

6:52

that's a that's a fair I would I would, I would have sympathy

6:54

for that point. And I think this is under appreciated

6:56

as a risk. Jean bo Then, thank you so

6:58

much, greatly, greatly appreciated this morning with

7:00

black Rock. They're really really informed discussion

7:03

their folks and some of the dynamics that

7:05

we see right now. I

7:11

think cut in a macro drisk at five is founder and CEO

7:14

Dean. The complacency, the complacency

7:16

of us to start a program like we have done

7:18

start this hour like we just have look

7:20

through all time highs forty seven of

7:22

them today on the SMP five hundred,

7:25

and it just seems to me that we're numb when numb

7:27

to any incoming information that tells you otherwise

7:29

about this bullish story you've creates it. What does

7:32

that's how you do well? You know?

7:34

I like the Field of Dreams exercise. I think it's

7:36

interesting to take a movie and kind of make

7:38

it into real life. But I also in terms of

7:40

markets, I like taking real events

7:42

and looking back on him and it is ten years

7:45

to the week that the I

7:47

would call it the joint crisis between the

7:49

Eurozone sovereign episode

7:52

of and the US dead ceiling

7:54

showdown occurred. And for the week of

7:57

this week ten years ago, realized volatility

7:59

in the s P was nine. This

8:02

week realized volatility

8:04

and SMP is three point five cent.

8:07

So it just goes to show you the

8:09

extent to which markets can go from

8:12

extremely high levels of alatility

8:14

to as you're discussing something

8:16

that really is a snooze fest.

8:18

And I think the important part about the

8:20

snooze fest is it really dulls

8:23

our imagination. It it catches us,

8:25

it causes us to be caught off guard. And

8:27

of course the lynchpin of it all,

8:30

I know you host your show the really Yield.

8:33

There's not much that

8:36

up um, so you

8:38

know everything is linked to a minus

8:41

one point one too more

8:44

negative tenure yield, everything, equity

8:46

valuations, low levels of volatility,

8:50

and I just I'm very concerned

8:52

that we're trusting the central

8:54

banks in a way that you

8:57

know, history has proven unkind

8:59

to that level of trust. I go back to, for

9:01

example, the early two thousand seven

9:03

period, and to me, uh, sub

9:05

prime is contained is the inflation

9:08

is transitory. Of these

9:11

epic misreads by central

9:13

bankers shouldn't be forgotten. They

9:15

can cause ultimately cause a lot of market

9:17

harm. H Dana, I want to know how VIX

9:19

sets here. We had a VIX of twenty two,

9:21

twenty one whatever back in mid July, and

9:24

now down we go under sixteen at

9:26

today. Tell me what the Greek

9:28

letters say right now, the co movements

9:31

of the markets say about

9:33

the umph to get the VIX down to a true

9:35

bullmarket fourteen or dare

9:38

I say thirteen? Well,

9:40

as as I as I mentioned, you know,

9:42

realized volatility around three and a half

9:44

percent. It's almost as if the SP

9:47

five is a PEG's currency, right, and

9:49

options on a peg are really

9:51

not worth very much. And so the

9:53

gravitational pull as you call it and in

9:56

the VIX is really contingent on

9:59

not just this low level of volatility realized

10:01

volatility, but it's it's nearly

10:03

ground to a screeching halt. So you

10:05

know, I had the VIX floorida around seventeen.

10:08

Obviously we've breached that. And

10:10

what causes you to breach it is when

10:12

you get such shockingly low

10:15

levels of movement, it's it's the quiet,

10:18

and uh, A lot of folks have forecasted

10:20

that there would be some fireworks in August

10:23

that that has been with some

10:26

regularity a month where the

10:28

summer vacation got disrupted. It doesn't look

10:30

like, at least for now, that that's going

10:32

to happen right now. So, UM, you know,

10:35

I think when I step back, I just try to look at risk

10:37

reward, and you're right. The equity markets

10:39

going up, it's not going up a ton, uh,

10:41

And so you know what I worry

10:44

about is this degree of complacency.

10:47

Uh. That again, it's it's grounded

10:49

in the mispricing

10:52

of nominal yields versus the rate of inflation.

10:55

We're we're really hoping that

10:58

uh, inflation comes down. It's

11:00

just very difficult to know. And

11:02

the damage that could result should

11:05

did not prove transitory and bond yields

11:07

react ultimately and kind of

11:09

push higher on a nominal level. Dingnitating

11:12

us. I just want to make you, get you to make the point.

11:14

You said something that I will not let pass.

11:16

You said that inflation in transitory

11:19

is transitory, is the new subprime

11:21

is contained. That's quite a cool. So

11:23

let's get the conviction call in this market, not

11:25

the ips, the butts on the one hand, On the other, what's

11:27

the coal. I

11:30

think the call is that the

11:32

the the valuation argument

11:35

that's being made in equities is contingent

11:37

on something that we just have no idea around.

11:40

And the data tells us, at least so far,

11:43

that nominal yields are so far below the rate

11:45

of inflation that the FED

11:47

could be in a very very difficult spot

11:49

if we go back and look at all the risk

11:52

offs that that we've that we've had, and

11:54

you know, there have been some doozies along the way.

11:56

The FED has always been there to massage

11:59

the market and to to lift it higher

12:01

for for a couple of reasons. One is

12:03

that market risk and economic risk

12:06

typically occur at the same time,

12:08

right the they typically run into trouble

12:10

at the same time, and so the FED, in its

12:12

remit to revive the economy, ultimately

12:15

has these policies with with work which

12:17

work more directly on asset prices. But

12:19

the bigger point, John, is that the feds

12:21

air cover is always that the rate

12:23

of inflation, the rate of inflation is

12:26

below targets, so it's allowed to do much.

12:28

We're in a much different circumstance.

12:30

Now, the rate of inflation is well well well

12:32

above target. So if we do run

12:35

into a risk off, we've got to be asking ourselves

12:37

the question, what's the FED going to do?

12:39

Just giving that inflation so far far above

12:41

target already to day, so so important and

12:43

a place we got you on a spot on that question, then

12:46

count it there a macro risk Adfinience is the founder and

12:48

CEO Tom that line there, Inflation

12:50

is transitory? Is the new subprime

12:53

is contained? That's something to take

12:55

an out. Tell Well,

13:00

let's get from New York to why I'm bringing Joe

13:02

my work the chief economist ACTS or Investment

13:04

Management. Joe. Let's start the August twenty because

13:07

no one's really interested in August this morning,

13:09

it saint was. Let's start in August

13:11

twenty six. Jackson Hall, what are you looking for from the

13:14

FED chairmen at that gathering? I'd

13:17

be I'd be surprised if we had a

13:19

sort of formal announcement from from

13:21

them or from him actually in Jackson Hall,

13:23

because the last few years,

13:26

quite a few years actually, the FED is try

13:28

to tone down the importance

13:30

of Jackson Hall in terms when it comes

13:32

to to actual policy announcements. It's

13:34

a place where you debate, it's a place where you lay

13:37

the ground for your future announcements,

13:39

but you you don't use it really to be

13:41

too precise about what you want to do. So my guesses

13:44

starts we'll have a pretty consensual

13:48

discussion from everybody

13:50

from the FED making it clear

13:52

that hey, you know, we may still have some sort

13:54

of differences on the exact timing of when

13:56

we taper, but tapering we will and

14:00

this is this is for the coming months. Probed

14:03

As a Frenchman, I have trouble putting a nest after th

14:06

um. So yeah, consensual. Not

14:08

a lot of conversations

14:11

of dissenters, I would say, because

14:13

they're all moving into in direction if you, if

14:15

you really speaks, so probably not much suspense

14:18

JO define data dependency

14:21

for us in the theme as Jackson Hall is

14:23

going to be waiting and waiting and waiting

14:26

to find this new data dependency

14:28

of this new FED. Definitely,

14:32

And I don't think that they can answer any

14:34

precise question at this at this stage because

14:38

on tapering, okay, it's a matter of

14:40

months on when they would

14:42

fully normalize military policy, i e. When

14:44

they would actually stop moving great they've

14:46

given themselves a lot of leeway. And

14:49

this is where I think

14:51

they will will have to learn by by by

14:53

watching them and and and follow

14:55

follow their their stride because um

14:58

before the pandemic struck, honestly, there

15:01

was no consensus on where uh

15:04

the natural uh unclun rate was

15:06

in the US. There was no agreement on where the equilibrium

15:09

interest rate was in the US. It's

15:11

become even more unclear in

15:13

this in this crisis. UM,

15:16

So I think they will be extremely progetic.

15:18

And there's again not much they can say

15:20

at this stage on what they intend to do in the next

15:23

two or three years. It's sort of shocking

15:25

to me. We get equity analysts after equity analysts

15:27

saying, by this rally, basically

15:29

it's going to keep going up, It's going to go up more than we

15:31

had previously expected. We have pretty

15:34

incredibly good data. We're coming out of

15:36

the labor market, coming out of inflation. Where

15:38

you know, if you want to see inflation, if

15:40

you start to see recovery signs all

15:42

over the place. Why are economists

15:45

not changing their projections

15:47

after the past two weeks. Why is this transitory?

15:50

Why does this fit into everybody's narrative on

15:52

the economic side. If it's not on

15:55

the equity analysts side, I

15:58

think, well it come. Mists usually

16:01

try to to to focus on on one of the

16:03

fundamentals are telling us, and probably

16:06

try to take on board what the

16:08

impact of the beginning of the normalization

16:10

of manatory policy will mean. At the moment.

16:13

Yes, you're right, the fundamentals are telling great

16:15

story. Earnings are doing well, the

16:18

economies reopening a fast clip. We

16:20

were very worried about the delta variant, but

16:22

it seems that, you know, the capacity

16:25

of the Committe to deal with it is higher than

16:27

we than we thought, higher than we feared. Still,

16:30

there's an elephant in the room. The elephant

16:32

in the room is how is the market going

16:34

to behave once we start

16:36

losing this massive constant

16:40

purchases of of a verris cree

16:42

asset and not so risk free assets from

16:44

from central banks. It's not for immediate consumption

16:47

in Europe, which may explain why the

16:49

equity market is doing even better in your

16:51

right now, But in the US it's a

16:53

matter of months. So I guess most economists

16:55

are trying to trying to to to work

16:57

the models and start to think, hey, you know, once

17:00

I take out from the equation those

17:03

billions of dollars of purchases, where

17:05

should the market be? And you know, this

17:07

is probably what makes us a bit grumpy, but that

17:10

probably comes with the trade. You know, how do you

17:12

gauge that? Is that just a guess? How

17:14

do you know how the market will respond? What do you look

17:16

for? Well, you can

17:19

try actually to come

17:21

up with with correct models,

17:23

which which makes sense because

17:26

we've had actually years and years now of experience

17:29

of an increase in the size

17:32

of central banks balance sheet. We've had

17:34

years of experience with with que so

17:36

you can actually it's not that complicated.

17:39

You can actually UH estimate

17:43

the impact of a change in the

17:45

balance sheet of the central bank on equity prices.

17:48

That's not that's not rocket science. The

17:50

question though, is that, um,

17:53

what we what is really complicated

17:56

to UH to estimate is

17:58

the psychological impact fact

18:00

that even if the central bank stopped

18:02

buying, and then the model is going to tell

18:04

you, hey, you know that means expersent less

18:07

on the trajectory for for risky

18:10

assets. The problem is that now the market

18:12

knows that if something goes wrong, central

18:15

banks are going to act probably faster

18:18

and in a bigger way than before. So that

18:20

provides a sort of insurance, sort of flooring

18:22

to the market. And that's the pits that is

18:25

really really hard to to to estinate. But

18:27

the direct impact, yes you can and there

18:29

are lots of models which which do that. The conditioning

18:32

jail, we've got to leave it there. Really great fan

18:34

of thoughts. You're my work there Banks for Investment Management,

18:36

the chief economists Danny

18:42

tells it. Thank you so much for joining us today. And

18:45

the state of retail. What's the

18:47

why behind you're you're in Joe

18:49

Felban's enthusiasm. What's

18:51

the om that's getting retailed to the end

18:53

of the year. Thank you so

18:55

much time for having me. I think them

18:57

that's getting retail to the end of the year. I

19:00

think number one, it's the consumer, the dollars

19:02

that they have and the pent up demand

19:04

that they have for gathering and

19:06

hopefully being together in a safe way

19:09

if if this variant can be controlled.

19:11

I think the other thing is the innovation that companies

19:14

have more new product innovation,

19:17

and not just in product, but think about

19:19

also in transaction transformation,

19:22

whether it's curbside, whether it's digital,

19:25

the convenience that consumers have is

19:27

greater than ever and it's exciting. What's

19:30

the lesson learned from the pandemic on

19:32

inventory management that's so

19:35

much part of the failure of

19:37

margins. Is there something that carries

19:39

over that they all learned about inventory

19:43

reduction and sk use helps to drive

19:46

profitability? Managing inventory

19:48

is key. Can you do more with less?

19:51

And can you personalize the offering

19:53

so that you don't have an abundance of goods leading

19:55

to mark downs. The head wind today is

19:58

definitely supply chain and getting

20:00

goods into the US. We hear

20:02

that from company after company and

20:04

it doesn't seem like that's going to normalize

20:07

before the end of the year, so we're gonna

20:09

have tight inventory levels as

20:11

we go through the second half of the year. How

20:13

are companies dealing with that, the supply chain issues

20:16

that they see persisting for a while some

20:18

of the different ways they're dealing with it. They're bringing

20:20

goods in by air. It's not a

20:23

cheap way to do things, but it helps

20:25

to meet demand and you'd rather not lose

20:28

the sale and bring goods in that you

20:30

can sell at a full price. Some of them

20:32

are transitioning from the West Coast ports

20:34

to the East coast ports. But reduction

20:37

in inventory and hopefully lower inventory

20:39

levels than we had in the past, will lead

20:41

to a much more balanced

20:43

promotional environment in the future. As

20:46

the delta variant continues to spread,

20:48

our people overestimating or underestimating

20:50

the return of brick and mortar. I

20:53

think basically, as the delta variant spreads,

20:55

we're continuing to see reopenings,

20:58

recover physical story footprints,

21:00

encouraging, traffic improving,

21:03

but conversion is higher than traffic.

21:06

Consumers are going with destinations

21:08

in mind and picking up goods. There is

21:10

certainly a concern that will traffic

21:12

slow a bit if we see this delta

21:14

variant expand. But now companies

21:17

know how to manufacture and to deliver

21:20

the whole experience with omni channel,

21:22

That omni channel customer is more profitable

21:25

than the single channel customer. In big backs,

21:27

what's your single best by Dana right now? I

21:30

mean, look what targets doing. It's pretty special.

21:32

And frankly, look what's Walmart. Walmart is

21:34

doing. I think the big box discounters

21:37

are capturing more consumers. How long

21:39

can this consumer boom continue? Though in terms

21:41

of spending, Given the fact that we are seeing

21:44

prices rise, and we are expecting

21:46

some of the wage increases to start to slow. So

21:49

when we see the wage increases slow and yes,

21:51

prices are rising. We've heard about it in footwear,

21:54

We've heard about it in other categories. To child

21:57

tax credits going to be there through the end of the year.

22:00

The savings rate is high. I think we're

22:02

gonna see a sustained demand of enhanced

22:04

spending as we go through the Christmas time

22:06

period. Is where people are

22:09

spending? Is that changing? I know that we

22:11

went through the cycle of devices, and then recently

22:13

we've seen an explosion of people trying to buy

22:15

clothes at fit them as they try to return to the office.

22:18

Where are the hot spots right now heading

22:20

into your end? I think heading

22:22

into the year end by category, I think a parallel

22:25

is a hot spot, the innovation that you have,

22:27

whether it's denim, whether it is footwear.

22:29

And frankly, look at luxury because the strength

22:31

there has been quite solid. I think the

22:34

other hot spots that we're gonna be seeting out

22:36

there. I mean take a look at off price.

22:38

Off price stores basically weren't open

22:40

for a significant part of last year.

22:43

They don't have the digital Channel. We should

22:45

be a benefit to that also. Dana

22:47

Telsea. One final question, you are a

22:50

beast of Manhattan. In New York

22:52

City, we all drive around

22:54

and see the empty stores. How

22:57

do you react when you see empty

22:59

store on Second Avenue

23:02

on your Madison Avenue and Fifth

23:04

Avenue are way over on you know,

23:06

the west side. How do you respond to that? It's

23:10

depressant. I want to see life. I

23:12

want to see stores coming back to Manhattan.

23:14

We are seeing people come back

23:16

to live in Manhattan. We've certainly seen

23:19

an optic and apartment sales and

23:21

the improvement in Madison Avenue.

23:23

I'm hearing of an acceleration of

23:25

some openings on Madison Avenue in

23:28

this back half of the year. We need the vibrancy

23:30

to come back to the neighborhoods. Even in the Flat

23:33

Iron district. The Harry Potter store

23:35

opened, but then you have so many closings elsewhere.

23:38

Tourism will help to bring traffic, the

23:40

return of work, even in hybrid

23:42

manner, and kids going to school. Danny

23:44

Telsey, thank you so much, greatly greatly appreciated.

23:47

Of course, with Telsey Advisory Group, heeriod update

23:50

their enthusiasm from Mr Phelbon This

23:52

morning on Walmart and on Target.

23:56

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23:59

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