Since Russia launched its "special military operation" against Ukraine, Russian society has adapted to living amid conflict. Despite initial predictions that public outrage would topple the regime, the majority of Russians have consolidated around the Kremlin, viewing it as a defender against a perceived threat from the West.

How accurate are wartime opinion polls? How have the dynamics of support for the war in Russia changed during the past year? Which events have changed public perceptions in Russia over the last 18 months? What needs to happen in 2024 to bring about a change in these perceptions?