If we assume recession is coming fairly soon, though it will likely be short and shallow, then what does that mean for stocks? This week Brian looks at recessions back to the early 1970s to see how the S&P 500 Index performed during the 12, six, and three months before those economic downturns began.

On average, six months before, the index has fallen 1.4%, though the median is slightly positive at 1.0%. Three months before recessions began, performance was a bit weaker, with an average and median decline of 1.6% and 3.8%, respectively.

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