0:00

Hey, it's Stephen Lacy here. I'm the

0:02

executive editor at Latitude Media. I'm also

0:04

the executive editor of a podcast called

0:06

The Big Switch. It's a show that

0:08

we make in partnership with Columbia University's

0:11

SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy. Battery

0:13

supply chains are a big focus of this

0:15

show. And so this week we're bringing you

0:18

a special deep dive into those supply chains,

0:20

the season premiere of The Big Switch. Our

0:22

team spent months talking to researchers, executives,

0:25

activists, and journalists to make a series

0:27

about the sprawling global supply chain behind

0:29

batteries. And across five episodes,

0:31

our producers and guests report back from

0:34

every step of that supply chain, a

0:36

lithium salt flat, a nickel refinery, a

0:38

battery cell factory, a battery recycling plant,

0:40

a battery junkyard, and a town of

0:42

400 that's getting a 6,000 person EV

0:46

and battery plant. In this

0:48

first episode that you're about to hear, we

0:50

actually break apart one of the battery cells

0:52

that was in the original Tesla Roadster to

0:55

understand what's inside. And we also

0:57

focus on how critical minerals are becoming a major

0:59

force in global geopolitics, especially involving

1:01

China, which of course dominates

1:03

battery supply chains. So

1:06

are we just trading reliance on oil

1:08

for reliance on things like copper, lithium,

1:10

and nickel? The show is hosted by

1:12

Columbia's Dr. Melissa Lott. Those are the

1:14

questions that she's asking. She's deep in

1:16

energy systems and does an excellent job

1:18

breaking down the complicated and surprising ways

1:21

that mines and refineries and factories are

1:23

reshaping the global economy. Have

1:25

a listen. Here's the episode in full. We

1:27

think you'll like it. And if you do

1:29

like it, go subscribe to The Big

1:31

Switch anywhere you get your

1:33

podcasts. And now here is

1:36

The Big Switch's host, Dr. Melissa Lott,

1:38

in the first episode of our season

1:40

on batteries. I

1:42

want to tell you the story about a

1:44

woman named Alessandra Carion. Alessandra

1:49

is a Renaissance woman. And I say

1:51

that because she's not only a Michigan

1:53

public service commissioner, but also a sustainability

1:56

expert. And I'm not kidding. She's the

1:58

co-owner of a very By

2:00

Neapolitan pizza shop. I

2:02

do in fact me a call

2:04

own at a pizza business. It's

2:06

a skill that will never go

2:09

away. She also has released a

2:11

suffix sell sex in tracking battery

2:13

supply chain so we couldn't help

2:15

but ask her to see the

2:17

electric oven that the pizzeria at

2:20

the restaurant because we were. A

2:22

verify the Apollo and Pizzeria. We

2:24

used a traditional wood fire brick

2:27

oven. Or hundred have

2:29

to us and only and her official capacity as

2:31

an Energy commissioner or as a pizza lover. Someone

2:34

who has spent nearly a decade tracing

2:36

the minerals and materials and make up

2:38

her cars. and in particular tracing

2:40

the materials that are in our

2:42

electric car battery. She started her

2:44

fared impairments consulting and then and

2:46

twenty policy moved into the heart

2:49

of America as auto industry which

2:51

is at the start of the

2:53

major transition truly armed assault called

2:55

tools to Detroit Michigan com especially

2:57

with of sort of thus the

2:59

the auto industry are being in

3:01

a in a pivotal moments are

3:03

back in two thousand and eight

3:05

onwards I could see how much

3:07

energy there was around transforming. The

3:09

city in the wake of a lot

3:11

of teams. For coverage to the

3:14

financial crisis in Ice, a big three

3:16

Us automakers are handing over their plans

3:18

for the future to Congress. The. Trying

3:20

to convince lawmakers to give them

3:22

a bail out of twenty five

3:25

billion dollars in taxpayer money. Companies

3:27

say one of them might collapse

3:29

without it. So.

3:31

At that time to really am certain

3:33

stories were playing and see a few

3:36

years earlier America's top automakers are struggling

3:38

in the wake of the financial crisis

3:40

and they saw that the sales for

3:42

some of their vehicles particularly those big

3:44

as you these that him because gas

3:46

will they take hundreds of thousands of

3:48

production jobs are lost and the government

3:50

ended up stepping in to help them

3:52

out. Pouring nearly eighty billion

3:54

dollars into Gm, Chrysler and

3:57

Ford General Motors influence emitted

3:59

restructuring. The Congress to date

4:01

Gm promises fewer brands and fewer

4:03

dealers for promises know managers will

4:05

get a two thousand and nine

4:07

bonus and will speed up slang

4:09

for electric cars as a condition

4:12

for the sentiments Support Automakers agree

4:14

to speed up fuel efficiency standards

4:16

to encourage lighter gas a thing

4:18

models that have been be prioritized

4:20

And meanwhile the American Recovery and

4:22

Reinvestment Act also known as The

4:24

Stimulus Bell Street is federal tax

4:26

credits for different types of electric

4:29

vehicle is included billions. Of. Dollars to

4:31

support domestic. Battery Manufacturing First had

4:33

also included a loan for

4:35

it. plainly electric harm her

4:37

called plus Alessandro stepped into

4:39

this moment at Ford for

4:41

she got a job is

4:43

to sustainability business analyst. Souls

4:46

that required an ability

4:48

to. Investigate along the

4:50

supply chain on where materials came from,

4:52

how they were being processed, who was

4:55

handling them, and all sanders work with

4:57

directly influenced by another very important law

4:59

called the Dodd Frank Act. This act

5:01

has created in the wake of the

5:04

Financial crisis and set up a whole

5:06

host of regulatory. Reforms and consumer

5:08

protection. Reforms

5:12

will help foster innovation not

5:15

have it provides certain to

5:17

everybody from bankers to farmers.

5:20

The business owners. For. Consumers.

5:23

And. Unless your business model depends on

5:25

cutting corners or built in your customers.

5:28

You've. Got nothing to fear from a for. There

5:32

was a physician and the law

5:34

that required publicly traded companies and

5:36

manufacturers to report their sources of

5:38

ten tungsten, tantalum, and gold these

5:41

minerals or sound and a wide

5:43

range of consumer electronics, jewelry, medical

5:45

equipment and cars. And they're often

5:47

referred to as conflict minerals because

5:49

large amounts of them are mind

5:52

the Democratic Republic of the Congo

5:54

where they can fun armed conflict

5:56

and also associated to human rights

5:58

abuses like child labor. Dodd

6:01

Frank ignited efforts inside large companies

6:03

like Forward to investigate where these

6:05

materials came from, how they were

6:07

being processed, and who was handling

6:10

them. And

6:15

there were literally thousands of spreadsheets,

6:17

thousands of suppliers to sort through.

6:19

It was it was really else

6:21

or a first of its time

6:23

moments and so that really smart

6:25

and inspired not only for Ford

6:27

bad across many industries companies began

6:29

to question okay by line he

6:31

to think about where my sentence

6:33

and gentlemen gold is coming from

6:35

or what about my Lithium? What

6:37

about my Nicole? What about my

6:39

rubber from from farms Though it

6:42

was I was really fortunate to

6:44

be part of the industry and

6:46

in and this job at a

6:48

moment where this activity was just

6:50

scaling and expanding and an unprecedentedly.

6:59

And. That scale only expanded as

7:01

the entire auto industry started embracing

7:04

electric cars thanks to batteries that

7:06

we're getting super and better. Every

7:08

single year in a brand new

7:10

plants in Michigan the future of

7:12

floors is already rolling out for

7:14

you all Electric version of the

7:16

F One fifty but best So

7:18

we vehicle in America which one

7:20

hundred fifty thousand order Now fear

7:22

tells Nbc News exclusively it is

7:25

going all in an electric pledging

7:27

that with the nine years, forty

7:29

percent of it's fleet will be

7:31

battery powered. And those lithium ion

7:33

batteries are filled with another set

7:35

of critical minerals like of course

7:38

Lithium that also cobalt, manganese and

7:40

graphite which are mind process transported

7:42

and controlled and highly complicated place.

7:45

He these are represents opportunity

7:47

to introduce a new way

7:49

of planning for virtually the

7:51

new blossoming supply chains valued

7:53

scenes that are responsible at

7:55

it into account social and

7:57

environmental sustainability from the onside

7:59

if we if we planet

8:01

crackly and the ability to

8:04

introduce more transparency and those

8:06

mineral supply chains that that

8:08

already exists for other commodities

8:10

that we can in turn

8:12

help improve and this long

8:14

lead up over more than

8:16

fifteen years to stimulus Act

8:18

the Auto Bailout dodd Frank

8:20

combined with batteries getting so

8:22

much cheaper sparked interests and

8:24

electric vehicles and the battery

8:26

supply chains behind them and

8:28

they led to. This transformative line

8:31

twenty twenty two that put batteries at

8:33

the center of the clean energy economy

8:35

I'm talking about The inflation reductionist was

8:38

on. There was so much attention on

8:40

solar wind and hydrogen socks for battery

8:42

companies. Also A t beneficiary of the

8:45

inflation reduction as by this plane Alexandre

8:47

had left board but she was still

8:49

so. This uneasy supply chains and the

8:52

Inflation Reduction Act also called the I

8:54

R A added a whole new set

8:56

of state. And suddenly

8:58

government policy wasn't just focus on

9:01

discouraging conflict minerals or sprinkling some

9:03

money and are A D it

9:05

was about building an industrial scale

9:07

battery industry from the ground up

9:10

with tens of billions of dollars

9:12

and and centers and that includes

9:14

tax credits for battery production and

9:16

mineral we're finding. The second measure

9:19

is linking the easy incentive to

9:21

domestic an allied and mineral production.

9:23

And so were the opportunity there becomes

9:26

is not just where you mining these

9:28

minerals by if you mind them than

9:30

where these send them to meet caseloads

9:32

to make our nodes. And does the

9:34

Us want to be in the business

9:36

of processing those minerals to make these

9:39

castles in an old said go into

9:41

the batteries that were assembling over time

9:43

In order for the easy credit to

9:45

be realized, more and more battery components

9:47

need to be mind, were fined or

9:50

recycled by the U S. are one

9:52

of our free trade allies. Strong. These

9:54

are complex and a lotta supply chains

9:56

that this question really leads to a

9:58

central topic around the. The inability,

10:01

responsibility, and then ultimately

10:03

economic. Development and and ability to

10:05

thrive in meet demand with local supply.

10:10

This is the Big Threats A show about

10:12

how to rebuild the energy systems that are

10:15

all around us. I'm doctor Melissa Lot and

10:17

I'm the Senior Director of Research at Columbia

10:19

University Super Center on Global Energy. Policy.

10:24

Batteries are taking over the world.

10:26

they're finding their way into. Everything,

10:28

Cars, heavy equipment and the electric

10:30

grid. That scaling up production to

10:33

meet the demands of a net

10:35

zero economy is really complicated and

10:37

it's and center this season we're

10:39

digging into the ways that batteries

10:41

are made and were asking what

10:44

gets mind traded and consumes on

10:46

the road to decarbonisation. This

10:50

is the first installment in our

10:52

five part series. In this episode,

10:54

the geopolitical race that is transforming

10:56

battery supply chain will open up

10:58

a lithium ion battery. investigate Western

11:00

Side as soon as the question

11:02

of critical minerals. The New Orleans.

11:08

A global quest to learn how batteries are

11:10

made starts really close to home for me

11:12

right here on the campus of Columbia University,

11:14

where I work. More

11:17

precisely, it starts with the Columbia

11:19

Electrochemical Energy Center. It's just a

11:21

straight away from my office and

11:23

it's were professor. Damn Thang. Art

11:25

studies how energy storage devices work

11:27

by learning how they sell it.

11:29

It has A and here we're

11:31

going to like slow as a

11:33

Battery. Will hopefully won't blow up, but

11:35

we're gonna cut it open in a way

11:38

that it's really not meant to be cut

11:40

open because we're trained, professionals are more suited

11:42

for it's. actually getting his Phd and fifty

11:44

batteries a part in various ways or he

11:46

for most is time blowing batteries often so

11:48

taser a safety for him. Were having the

11:51

day off. Okay,

11:53

picture that are in this lab and

11:55

i'm standing next to dan and his

11:58

phd student said schumacher around

12:00

us are these white cinder block walls

12:02

that are lined with copper pipes and

12:04

cabinets filled with chemicals. I'm

12:06

talking cylinders, beakers, slacks, just

12:09

everywhere. And it's in

12:11

this lab that researchers are performing all

12:13

these crazy kinds of experiments to stress

12:15

test the batteries that go into our

12:17

cars and the electric grid. So to

12:20

figure out how, when, and why they

12:22

fail. Why

12:24

did you decide you wanted to take batteries apart for your

12:26

work? I guess I would call it chaotic

12:29

neutral. It's where I live. What

12:31

does that mean? It's

12:34

just, it's exciting and

12:36

it's also impactful, right? A lot of people work

12:39

on battery performance and making batteries better, make them

12:41

better, more energy. But that means a lot more

12:43

bad things can happen, right? Especially in the city,

12:45

you have a lot of, you know, battery fires

12:47

and a lot of people get hurt. So

12:50

the way that we can figure out how to not make

12:52

that happen is to study what's happening

12:54

when that happens. So that just,

12:56

I found my little niche of battery

12:58

explosion. We spend a

13:00

lot of time trying to make batteries better

13:02

and spread, improve the energy density, improve the

13:04

power density. Classically anything

13:07

that has high energy density, something that

13:09

stores a lot of energy in

13:11

a small amount of space, high power density can

13:13

give that energy very quickly. We

13:15

don't want batteries to be bombed. So the question is, is how do

13:17

we have a battery that gets us a

13:19

300 mile range that can be charged

13:22

in five minutes that has zero

13:25

danger of exploding, right? That's probably

13:27

impossible completely, but

13:30

understanding how and why they

13:32

explode is something

13:34

really important and tragically understudied.

13:38

Okay, let's go and blow

13:40

something up. Open

13:43

something up. Don't burst my bubble

13:45

yet. We're going to blow it up. No, let's go. Let's

13:47

go open something. I can't wait to see what's inside of this thing. Okay. We

13:50

throw on our safety glasses and Dan and Brett

13:53

take me over to our protective shield. And

13:55

behind that shield, there's this cylinder

13:57

shaped battery. It looks kind of like

13:59

a AA battery but it's slightly larger.

14:01

It's a cell called an 18650 and that's

14:04

battery speak for 18

14:06

millimeters in diameter and 65

14:08

millimeters in height. And

14:11

this type of lithium-ion cell was rumored

14:13

to be used in the original Tesla

14:15

Model S. The

14:17

idea that the cell that Brett

14:19

is taking apart for you today

14:22

would be the commodity cell

14:24

when I was Brett's age

14:26

20 years ago was seemed

14:29

impossible. But through

14:31

just brutally efficient engineering

14:34

it turned out to

14:36

be the linchpin for enabling

14:38

low-cost storage. So Brett

14:40

puts on these black protective gloves and

14:42

he starts to unravel the battery and

14:45

as he's doing it he's unveiling these

14:47

long strips of material that have been

14:49

layered together in a tight coil. And

14:51

so if I turn this on its head or I

14:53

guess on its belly what it'll

14:55

look like is you see this white here

14:57

and it's in like almost like a tree

14:59

it's like concentric ring so this is what

15:02

we call a jelly roll. What we have

15:04

actually is a really long foil of electrodes

15:07

so I can roll this all the way

15:09

out and it's actually two electrodes that are

15:12

just super super super long. It's

15:14

like a fruit roll up. Yeah exactly.

15:18

So I can roll this all the way out. And

15:21

when we rolled it all the way out

15:23

we saw four parts made up of different

15:25

materials which are sourced from all over the

15:27

world. You have your cathode and

15:30

your anode those are what you're actually going to

15:32

be storing your energy in. So your anode is

15:34

your minus sign if you're thinking of a double-a

15:36

battery and your cathode is your positive sign. In

15:40

these specific cells we have

15:42

what's called nickel cobalt aluminum.

15:45

Our active materials on our cobalt side

15:47

are positive side that's going to help

15:49

store our lithium. On our opposite side

15:52

our anode is our negative side is

15:54

going to be graphite that's usually what

15:56

is used in most conventional lithium-ion batteries

15:58

now. between those two

16:01

is what we call a separator, very

16:03

simple. It keeps the two apart, right? Whenever

16:05

we think of battery safety,

16:08

one thing we don't wanna do is touch those two

16:10

together. It's like licking a battery, right? You get a

16:12

little shock. So that's the same thing. A

16:14

separator is supposed to keep it safe on

16:17

the inside. That'll look like

16:19

a white polymer. It's usually polypropylene, so

16:21

a very common polymer. And

16:23

the way we need to make

16:25

sure that these lithiums can travel between

16:28

these two electrodes, so we use electrolyte.

16:30

It's not Gatorade. It is some sort

16:32

of lithium salt dissolved. It'd be

16:34

so cool if it was. That'd be so awesome. Yeah,

16:36

it'd be great. It wouldn't be flammable too, which is

16:38

awesome. But usually what

16:40

it is, it's some sort of lithium

16:42

containing salt dissolved in solvents,

16:45

like carbonates. It's like this liquid,

16:47

clear liquid that dissolves the salt in.

16:49

And that allows for the lithium ions

16:51

actually to transport between the two. All

16:54

right, so we got an anode, a cathode. We got

16:56

some polymer. And then we got a lot of lithium

16:58

moving stuff around. It's basically what it's like. So

17:00

like when we're charging a battery, what we're

17:02

actually doing is we're moving lithium ions from

17:04

one side of the battery to the other.

17:06

So when the lithium moves over, that's a

17:09

positive ion, we get an electron,

17:11

and that's electricity. So that will go and

17:13

power our cars or our light bulbs or

17:15

something like that. So the act of moving

17:17

that lithium ion is actually pushing an electron

17:19

through a circuit that we can actually harness

17:21

for energy. I've never

17:24

taken apart a battery before, so watching Brett uncoil

17:26

all the materials was really cool

17:28

to see. I'll admit I was

17:30

tiny bit disappointed that I didn't see any

17:32

small explosions, but that's a really good thing.

17:35

Because 20 years ago, explosions were much more common

17:38

in lithium ion batteries. And

17:40

the cell that we dissected, which

17:43

was perfected by Tesla, was a big deal in

17:45

terms of design. When I started

17:47

grad school, it was thought that this cell

17:49

had to be much larger and be more stable. It

17:51

was thought that this cell had to be much larger and

17:53

be much fancier. And they kept on blowing

17:55

up. In fact, they blew up so much that I wasn't allowed to

17:57

work on them at Lawrence Berkeley Lab. Six

18:01

years later, after all of these batteries

18:03

catching fire, the initial team at Tesla

18:05

said, let's just use cells that we

18:07

don't know don't explode, which are cells

18:10

that are in laptops. So

18:12

the immediate predecessor to the cell that Brett

18:14

took apart was used in a laptop that

18:16

looked exactly the same. That

18:19

pack was very expensive. The initial

18:21

Tesla Roadster cost $150,000 and went maybe 150, 180

18:23

miles, right? So

18:27

certainly not the mass market

18:29

vehicle. But it set in motion

18:31

the understanding

18:33

that all of this stuff can be made

18:35

much cheaper. And so that

18:38

little cell, as premium

18:40

and or insignificant as it might

18:42

be, a laptop battery designed

18:45

for systems in 1996, turns

18:49

out to be the crucial storage element

18:51

of the energy transition. When

18:58

I was looking at the battery cell and talking

19:00

to Dan and Brett, I was really hit by the

19:02

scale of what I was looking at. There

19:04

were about three feet of materials

19:06

wrapped up inside a cell in the lab. A

19:09

Tesla battery pack hosts like 10,000 of

19:12

those cells, just in a single car. In

19:15

fact, EVs today can have hundreds and

19:17

even thousands of lithium-ion cells. And that

19:19

means that the typical electric car on

19:22

the road can have between three and

19:24

four miles of really thin material, material

19:26

that is mined, processed and assembled all

19:29

over the globe. So

19:31

after our lab visit, I sat down with Dan

19:33

in his office to run through how to all

19:35

work from beginning to end. So

19:44

if we break down how you make

19:46

a battery, what are the big steps

19:48

to actually taking a bunch of raw

19:50

stuff and turning it into a battery? Well,

19:53

first you have to get the raw stuff. You Got to

19:55

dig it out of the ground. You have to find the

19:57

right veins. Almost Everything that's in a battery by mass. Is

20:00

a significant amount of money. Is is a

20:02

metallic or metal like element. The. Most

20:05

commonly is Minerals are Lithium, Cobalt,

20:07

graphite, manganese, Nickel, and copper and

20:09

it's important that we know where

20:12

these. Minerals come from so.

20:14

Eighty percent of lithium comes from

20:16

Australia, China, and silly was percent

20:18

of cobalt comes from the Democratic

20:21

Republic of Congo. Sixty.

20:23

Percent of manganese com says

20:25

south Africa, China and Australia

20:27

and sinus sources eighty percent.

20:29

Of the World's Pc. Indonesia

20:31

is the world's dominant nickel producer,

20:34

and Chilean Peru. Other world's top

20:36

copper producers. We get the minerals like

20:38

we get any other metals we monument

20:40

of the ground and then we have

20:42

to take extra care and purifying them

20:44

and as batteries have found their way

20:46

into to bigger applications cars and now

20:48

the grid costs that purification has dropped

20:50

substantially and this should have been predictable

20:52

to be because I saw it happen

20:54

ten years earlier with silicon. but I

20:56

son Who's Can Happen voters and turned

20:58

turned out that luckily it could And

21:00

so to Grayson. And. Just like

21:03

it does when it comes to

21:05

silicon for semiconductors, the solar cells

21:07

china dominates here as mean instincts

21:09

in a controlled eighty five percent

21:11

of all critical minerals processing and

21:14

resigning actually mine and purify, We

21:16

get to synthesize in the material

21:18

as a part of the battery

21:20

production process, which is incredibly sophisticated

21:22

and precise. The synthesis make sure

21:24

the elements are exactly in the right

21:27

order. It's not too good enough to

21:29

have Nicole, Cobalt and Manganese in some

21:31

ratio mix together. Hope it works out.

21:33

You want the nickel in one layer

21:35

and then a layer of oxygen and

21:38

in a layer of manganese. and then

21:40

a layer of cobalt. and there's not

21:42

the same amount of Nicole manganese in

21:44

Cobalt. In the electrode and

21:46

so he nickel has to be every

21:48

other layer and the manganese and a

21:51

cobalt will be are interspersed every fourth

21:53

layer and then it could be every

21:55

a slayer and so forth. This level

21:57

of of control is frankly amazing. The.

22:00

Whole purpose makes you think got a license

22:02

three berries like getting and just as right

22:04

except we're we're talking about getting it right

22:06

at the At comic novel. Or

22:08

as the atomic level and know

22:10

I I I ideally. I.

22:12

Would place every item but again this has

22:15

be really cheap and I have to make

22:17

millions of tons of it a year. So

22:19

with a with computers if I don't need

22:21

millions of tons of computer chips that can

22:24

be these precious gems relative to battery. so

22:26

I need the kind of control. Ideally I

22:28

want the kind of control haven't computer chips

22:30

but made it to scale of dog food.

22:33

In case you aren't keeping count so

22:35

far this episode was referred to Jelly

22:37

Roles Fruit Roll Ups Gatorade, The Three

22:40

Bears for as a Goldilocks and Mouth

22:42

Dog said only got one more for

22:44

you Now that we've mind purified on

22:47

synthesize the material that we need, we

22:49

have to layer it makes something that

22:51

looks like balaclava. And yes, I'm talking

22:53

about that amazing and slightly sticky desert

22:56

that many of us have enjoyed. Now.

22:58

Imagine you go to your favorite

23:00

bakery and you say you have

23:02

to me kilometers of box law

23:05

that's a with the separate or

23:07

space him to me and Cathode

23:09

is about steam excellence and so

23:11

not only are these layers process

23:13

within themselves best precisely alliance over

23:15

these distances. he got mining. The

23:17

new guy purifying and then you've

23:19

got a lotta different steps that

23:21

going to a bucket that could

23:23

be called manufacturing and set this stage

23:26

we have a cell. what happens

23:28

next. Specific period. Love because now

23:30

we have the Legos. The cell

23:32

is really hard to make. a

23:35

lot goes into it manufacturing. Know

23:38

how over the Industrial revolution?

23:40

Some industrial revolution to. Twenty.

23:43

Twenty Three or is about doing one thing,

23:45

doing one thing over and over again and

23:47

then having that be a building block. At.

23:49

This point in the process the

23:51

difficult chemistry is behind us and

23:53

the assembly process is all about

23:55

stream the cells together and two

23:57

packs of to ten thousand cells.

24:00

In a single pack, it's still pretty

24:02

difficult, but you no longer need specialized,

24:04

clean rooms and you can do it

24:06

virtually anywhere you can. Ship he sells

24:08

their formed the can be created and

24:10

so the of. While we

24:12

want to produce more cells in the

24:14

Us, the fact that these cells can

24:16

be made with these positions in Korea

24:18

and China In Japan, that's where most

24:20

of the manufacturing happens. There's a good

24:22

amount happening the you out there has

24:24

to be a lot more, but once

24:26

the cells are made, you can do

24:28

what we call pack out, making the

24:30

modules, making the pax wherever. It's really

24:32

incredible. Said

24:35

that as upset as a lithium

24:37

ion batteries are made, the process

24:39

is really sophisticated and every single

24:41

step is expanding quickly as the

24:44

world appetite for batteries increases. That

24:46

means that we're gonna need more

24:48

as everything that goes under them.

24:50

To needs by twenty four the are

24:53

scary, but by twenty thirty they might

24:55

be even scarier just minding and process

24:57

takes. a lot of times of religion

24:59

that's about seven to eight times more.

25:02

By twenty third, Nickolenko bug me to

25:04

the double and Copper about fifty percent

25:06

more, which are gigantic months. Some

25:09

more and hot. As a research scholar

25:11

here at the Center Global Energy Policy

25:14

someone tom things about to happen as

25:16

they said he looks at it the

25:18

lenses of trade and best sent an

25:21

industrial policy according to Mckenzie, the global

25:23

supply chain for batteries and twenty twenty

25:25

two. with around eighty five billion dollars

25:28

and twenty thirty as expected to be

25:30

worth four hundred billion dollars thanks largely

25:32

to demand for things like electric cars

25:35

and on the stories and the electric

25:37

grid. whoever controls bought. Supply chain

25:39

has enormous power says who

25:41

currently we'll says. Adding the

25:44

obvious candidates Turner Prize for China's

25:46

Deputy buildings your political leverage with

25:48

with their control over over to

25:50

supply chains. I think other countries

25:52

are currently reacting to it. Ski

25:56

race in part. Because he controls

25:58

the supply chain. Raw materials

26:01

for battery Twenty eight.

26:03

Percent of the world's Lithium, Forty

26:05

one percent of Cobalt through steaks

26:07

and minds on five continents. And

26:09

the biggest concern is that they

26:11

would use their supply chain dominance

26:13

to basically gains your plan for

26:15

the average. That's the biggest challenge

26:17

and I think that the risk

26:19

is. Why

26:30

should we care about China controlling so much

26:32

as the world's battery supply chains? Why does

26:35

this matter? So. There are two

26:37

sites nelson. The first one is

26:39

that we should care because the

26:41

numbers are just insane. Their staggering,

26:43

right? I'm on the refining side.

26:45

China controls eighty percent of manganese

26:47

refining, more than seventy percent of

26:49

global, the nickel refining, more than

26:51

sixty percent of lithium refining. And

26:53

then you get to the most

26:55

valuable components to cathodes. Yeah, notes

26:57

right. China controls more than seventy

26:59

five percent scattered production, more than

27:01

ninety percent of annual production, and

27:03

then eventually, with respect to Badri,

27:05

so they control. More than seventy five

27:07

percent of those are a lot of

27:09

percentages but I basically didn't say anything

27:12

below sixty percent. It wouldn't matter if

27:14

it was Australia or Canada or even

27:16

Europe. those numbers are are scary because

27:18

you are at risk of supply chain

27:20

restrictions do two things like extreme weather

27:23

events, local conflicts rights. That's the first

27:25

part. The second part is course we

27:27

we should care because there are concerned

27:29

said China indeed will use that leverage

27:32

for forty of political power. Tennis.

27:34

Perceived as almost six and a

27:36

boogie man in international trade and

27:38

eric the reasons why it's a

27:40

state directed economy that often uses

27:42

businesses and export sections to retain

27:45

its dominance in a wide variety

27:47

of technology sectors. and batteries are

27:49

no different. Suggest as an example,

27:51

I never signed Ninety Percent of

27:53

the World's Best Sites and at

27:55

the end of twenty twenty three,

27:57

China restricted. Site Experts.

28:00

in an effort to protect its own supply. And

28:02

this restriction sent battery makers scrambling.

28:06

But they can also be wrongfully bashed.

28:08

So early on, China saw the strategic

28:10

importance of technologies like solar and batteries,

28:13

and they acted on it, building some of

28:15

the most competitive technologies in the world. China

28:17

had a vision for a battery

28:19

powered future and they built a

28:22

very successful industrial policy around it.

28:24

That is partially evidenced by control

28:26

over supply chains, but also

28:28

by technology. If you look today at

28:31

the best type of batteries, the best

28:33

cathodes in the world, that is Chinese

28:35

technology. And that has developed over a

28:37

number of years, one,

28:40

two decades at least, where they

28:42

had a clear strategy while other

28:44

automakers and countries were, yeah,

28:48

sorry for the pun, but asleep behind the wheel.

28:50

And while China dominates a lot

28:53

of the world's battery supply chains,

28:55

many other countries like China are

28:57

establishing their own trade restrictions. One

29:00

example is the Inflation Reduction Act

29:02

here in the US. This is

29:04

America's green industrial policy, and it

29:06

gives some real advantages to US

29:08

companies. I'm talking about domestic incentives

29:11

that angered even America's close European

29:13

allies. This green industrial race

29:15

has added to an already tense trade

29:17

relationship between the West and China, and

29:20

batteries are one of the reasons why.

29:22

The last few years have been very, very,

29:24

very bad. And

29:26

there's two drivers to that. First,

29:29

you have battery prices that are plummeting, and

29:31

that's a great thing for the energy transition,

29:33

right? But all of a sudden, all automakers

29:35

have to electrify. In the United States, in

29:38

Europe, if you don't do it now, you

29:40

fall behind, and you have no future in

29:42

the electric vehicle industry, which

29:44

means that all of a sudden, all

29:47

of the stuff that China was producing, we now

29:49

really need a lot of it, right? So

29:52

that came at the same time as

29:54

COVID. So You have a lot of

29:56

stimulus packages, right? So You have a lot of subsidies that

29:58

are now trying to encourage you. A lead to

30:01

more of that stuff. Eve East

30:03

Battery cells, Catholics and notes and

30:05

so forth at home, right? I'm

30:07

and their i think. Dose

30:09

to have gotten us to a level. Where.

30:12

There's a lot more sensitivity and

30:14

where we have seen the U

30:16

S stand up and say. If.

30:19

You wanna play a game of

30:21

export restrictions which you have been

30:23

doing. the loss basically deck addicted

30:25

and half we can play ball

30:27

right arm and so you have

30:30

seen the chips act Weird. United

30:32

States actually prohibits or recipients of

30:34

subsidies to to expand business in

30:36

China and it is very. Aggressive

30:39

ah protectionist measures right in in tier

30:41

it's and I think we seen the

30:43

same thing coming from China Way they

30:45

say look now is you export diamond

30:48

Germanium which are two very important elements

30:50

for tips. You. Need

30:52

to have a license from the government's which of

30:54

course gives them the control over exports as well.

30:57

And so there we have gotten now to

30:59

to situation a few competition. Think.

31:01

It's fair state that China is

31:03

not unique and using traded the

31:06

geopolitical lots of countries us to

31:08

have a couple of examples of

31:10

standout you actually at that point

31:12

as countries using trade restrictions within

31:14

manning specifically the battery supply chains

31:16

as some happened to a political

31:18

tool. Absolutely as a geopolitical to

31:20

and I would say as a as a

31:23

local industrialization to lie to to to jump

31:25

to jump on in the services would do

31:27

politics is one thing and and for me

31:29

when you talk but you politics a lot

31:31

of it is also by the cheating Foreign

31:33

policy goals right are having a specific types

31:35

of influence. In

31:38

that sector I would say with

31:40

respect to industrialization a lot of

31:42

countries what we see today are

31:44

trying to use export restrictions and

31:47

to also adds more valuable sectors.

31:49

to their economy so if you are

31:51

in nickel producer what happened before is

31:53

that you just export it and the

31:55

more for at value added segments like

31:58

processing cathode manufacturing and so forth were

32:00

happening elsewhere, China specifically. We

32:02

now see countries doing that differently. So

32:04

Indonesia, for example, implemented a nickel

32:07

export ban over several years to

32:10

force investment into Indonesia's

32:12

processing capacity. And that worked

32:15

very well. Other countries are looking at

32:17

that and are saying, hey, we might want to

32:19

do the same thing. Several African countries, for

32:22

example, Zambia and DRC with respect to cobalt.

32:25

Chile has recently nationalized its lithium industry.

32:27

It's a big word, but basically they're

32:29

going to require any private sector company to

32:32

come get into a joint venture with

32:34

the Chilean state-owned enterprise. So we're seeing

32:36

a lot of countries doing that. Whether

32:38

that will work, that's a big question.

32:41

Can the energy transition actually happen

32:44

on the timeframes and at the scale

32:47

we're talking about without cooperation with today's

32:49

major players in battery supply chains, including

32:51

China? Zero chance,

32:54

not at all, not in a million years. So

33:01

it sounds like the future of battery supply chains

33:04

is global. Is that fair? Absolutely.

33:07

The future of battery supply chains

33:09

is global for sure. We'll

33:12

see some more investment happening, very similar

33:14

to refineries. But the amount of demand

33:16

we're going to have for batteries is

33:18

off the charts. And we'll only be

33:20

able to supply it with integrated global

33:22

supply chains. We

33:28

need to electrify a lot of the global economy

33:30

if we want to hit net zero emissions by

33:32

2050. The International

33:34

Energy Agency says that growth in annual

33:37

electricity demand will need to double through

33:39

the middle of the century. And

33:41

that's going to require a lot of batteries

33:43

to electrify transport and more

33:45

batteries in our buildings and even more batteries

33:48

across the entire grid to balance out vast

33:50

amounts of wind and solar. And

33:52

so this brings us to a really central

33:55

question about the battery economy. Are we just

33:57

going to swap out dependence on petroleum for

33:59

dependence on solar? A critical minerals

34:01

from China, Elon Musk has called

34:03

Lithium the new oil. Is

34:05

he right? Looking

34:12

into huge increase in mining and

34:14

minerals. but we should put it

34:16

in proper context in the scale

34:19

of global oil gas trade. Jason.

34:21

Board. Ah, since the founding director of Columbia

34:24

University is super center and go but energy

34:26

policy where I work, but I've known Jason

34:28

since two thousand and Nine when we were

34:30

working together and the White House and I

34:32

turn to him when ever I have questions

34:35

about the geopolitics of the energy transition, say

34:37

some. A Special Assistant President Barack Obama and

34:39

Senior Director for Energy and Climate Change at

34:41

the National Security Council, so he knows a

34:44

thing or two about the Oil and Gas

34:46

transition. Will. And gasser incredibly important

34:48

strategic and economic commodities, and we've seen that

34:50

time and again over the last hundred hundred

34:52

and fifty years. I spoke to

34:54

days and almost to the day

34:57

of the fiftieth anniversary as the

34:59

Arab Oil Embargo. It's striking that

35:01

we were discussing centers dominance in

35:03

the clean energy sector right at

35:05

that moment, as that anniversary and

35:07

one doesn't explain the differences and

35:09

similarities between the battery economy and

35:11

the fossil fuel economy. When we

35:13

think about the massive quantities of

35:15

materials and minerals that we're gonna

35:17

need to get net zero emissions,

35:19

how did they compare to oil

35:21

and gas. The. Global oil and

35:23

gas traders is massive. The I

35:25

is ah, one of the ice

35:27

scenarios that gets you sort of

35:29

close to one point five degrees, if

35:32

not all the way, has critical

35:34

mineral revenue growing from forty one billion

35:36

in two thousand and nineteen. To.

35:38

Two Hundred and Sixty Three billion. By.

35:41

Twenty Forty Again, This on all the way to one

35:43

point five. Maybe one point seven, or eight. By

35:46

comparison, annual revenue from oil and

35:48

gas this year is over seven

35:50

trillion dollars and lot of this

35:52

is just volume. Ah, the volume

35:54

of critical minerals needed to power

35:56

the global economy and a clean

35:58

energy world are not as. As

36:00

they are for oil and gas,

36:02

even on a net zero pathway

36:05

critical minerals demand does not top

36:07

thirty million metric tons. In

36:09

Twenty Four, the according to the eye

36:11

and by comparison. To. Thirty

36:13

million metric tons. Oil.

36:16

Production last year was four point four billion.

36:18

Metric. Tons call was seven and a

36:20

half. Billion. Tons.

36:23

so. The. Global oil

36:25

and gas industry is enormous and ah

36:27

yes, we're going anymore mining. We're going

36:29

to be more global trade and these

36:31

minerals. But it really doesn't compare to

36:33

how massive the global oil and gas

36:35

our businesses. And. When we think

36:38

about the geopolitics of Alves, how

36:40

are minerals the same and different

36:42

from oil? I. Think there's a

36:44

lot of sometimes facile comparisons between oil security

36:46

and mineral security, and you hear some politicians

36:48

say things like i don't want to go

36:51

from dependence on the Middle East for oil

36:53

to dependence on China for minerals and there

36:55

is something to that We want to be

36:58

concerned about the dominance of any one country,

37:00

particularly one that is not a was playing

37:02

by free and fair. Rules of

37:04

global Trade or that the U S as significance

37:06

in Europe has significant. Tensions. With

37:09

like China, but there are a

37:11

lot of really important differences to

37:13

these are not the same from

37:15

the standpoint of scale or or

37:17

from the standpoint of the energy

37:19

security risks. Oil is. Ah,

37:22

the daily slow of energy. If

37:24

we were to see any cut

37:26

us in the daily slow of

37:29

oil, your ability to your homes

37:31

in some parts of the country

37:33

to power our transportation sector would

37:36

grind to a halt or prices

37:38

would go through the roof. If

37:40

you saw disruption in critical mineral

37:43

supplies, I wouldn't affect your ability

37:45

to get energy from say electricity

37:47

or to power your your home.

37:49

Ah, it would cause shortages, delays,

37:52

Cost increases in the supply chains.

37:55

For. mineral so critical minerals are

37:57

an input to up manufactured goods

38:00

that can produce energy or store energy,

38:03

it is not energy. We don't

38:05

burn critical minerals for energy. And

38:08

so if we had a disruption and some

38:10

types of critical minerals, you might see delays

38:12

and much higher costs for batteries.

38:14

It might have to wait six months or 12 months

38:16

to be able to buy a new electric vehicle. You

38:19

might see delays in solar panels. It wouldn't affect your

38:21

ability to charge your electric car today or get

38:24

electricity from your solar panel today.

38:26

So the risks to the macro economy are

38:29

different than they are for oil.

38:32

It's really important that we don't downplay

38:34

the risks in battery supply chains. Although

38:37

the fossil fuel economy actually dwarfs the

38:39

battery economy and volume, there are ways

38:41

in which critical minerals create even more

38:43

concerns about energy security than oil. And

38:47

the biggest risk is concentration.

38:50

So the top producers of oil in the

38:52

world, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, each

38:55

produce roughly 10% of global

38:57

crude oil supply. The

39:00

top producer of lithium, of

39:02

cobalt, of rare earths, each

39:05

of those, the top producers, each

39:07

of those produces more than half, and in some cases up

39:09

to 70% of global supply. So

39:12

there's much more concentration today in

39:15

who produces these so-called critical minerals.

39:18

That concentration brings a whole bunch

39:20

of concerns about supply shocks due

39:22

to things like expert restrictions, extreme

39:24

weather, or even another pandemic. But

39:27

when I spoke to Jason, he said

39:29

that all things considered, he'd rather have

39:31

the critical mineral security problem to solve

39:34

than the oil security problem to solve.

39:36

Oil is partly about technology, but

39:39

very much about geologic abundance. Some countries have

39:41

oil on the ground and some don't. With

39:43

critical mineral dominance that China has, most of

39:45

that is about refining and processing. Those are

39:47

manufacturing plants, and you can build those in

39:50

lots and lots of places. And

39:52

so if we're concerned about the dominance of

39:54

any one country in the supply chain for

39:56

geopolitical reasons, or just because you want to

39:58

diversify, you might see a... hurricane or typhoon

40:00

hit a certain country. You see that with Apple

40:02

now, which is trying to increasingly

40:04

build iPhones in India, not just China.

40:06

It's just good business practice, especially we've

40:09

been reminded after the pandemic, to diversify

40:11

supply chains. We can

40:13

build those refining and processing plants in many

40:15

places. I know that you were

40:17

a part of the Aspen Institute report that

40:19

was called a critical minerals policy for the

40:21

United States. In that report, you and others

40:24

outlined a bunch of recommendations for U.S. policy

40:26

around critical minerals. Could you

40:28

step us through just the most important steps

40:30

that governments can take and where,

40:33

if anywhere, is there some low-hanging fruit that we

40:35

could go ahead and move on soon and what

40:37

steps are actually going to be a lot more

40:40

difficult? There's a lot that the

40:42

U.S. government should be doing to expand

40:44

critical mineral supplies and increase security

40:46

of supply. First, we

40:48

will need more mining. If

40:52

you're going to diversify supply chains away from countries

40:54

like China, we're going to need permitting

40:57

reform to make it easier

40:59

to do mining projects in

41:03

the United States. You need to do

41:05

that incredibly carefully. We spent a lot of time

41:07

in the report talking about the risks to

41:11

Native American communities. Many of these

41:13

resources are located within a short

41:15

distance of federal lands, public lands,

41:17

sensitive areas, Native American communities. You

41:20

need to be really careful about how you do that. We have to

41:22

make it. Right now, it takes going to the IEA

41:24

an average of 16 years to bring a

41:26

new mining project to development. We have to

41:28

shorten those timeframes. We

41:30

can also put in place measures on

41:33

the demand side to reduce how much

41:35

minerals we need through technology and

41:38

through other measures that might actually allow us to

41:40

get to the same place with fewer of these

41:42

critical mineral inputs. Second,

41:45

we spent a lot of time

41:47

in the report and engaging with

41:49

tribal communities and indigenous communities to

41:52

make sure that any energy transition

41:54

and any dramatic increase in critical

41:56

minerals, mining, refining and

41:59

processing is done in a

42:01

way that is just and equitable. And the mining

42:03

industry does not always have a great track record

42:05

in this regard. So in particular,

42:07

we talked about the need to clarify

42:09

and enforce indigenous sovereignty through

42:11

the so-called concept of

42:14

free prior and informed consent

42:16

with consent directly from impacted

42:18

tribal communities. And that needs

42:20

to be a prerequisite for critical

42:22

mineral development. And

42:25

then third, we talked about the importance of

42:27

trade, that we can't do this alone. We

42:30

can't do this on a path of isolationism

42:32

and protectionism. We need a lot of partners.

42:35

First, there's almost no scenario where China does

42:37

not remain in a very important part of

42:39

these supply chains, albeit maybe less

42:42

dominant than today. And you need

42:44

to think about the tools to de-risk

42:46

that, to reduce the risks of that

42:48

dependence and put in

42:50

place tools to deal with shocks, geopolitical

42:53

or otherwise. And then we

42:55

need to diversify supplies. In order to do

42:57

that, we need to build

42:59

stronger partnerships with lots

43:01

and lots of other countries in Africa

43:04

and Latin America and Southeast Asia. That's

43:07

really important because right now, protectionism

43:09

is on the rise on

43:12

both sides of the aisle and in many parts of

43:14

the world. And we're

43:16

gonna need more free trade agreements and more

43:18

free trade partnerships, not fewer, if we wanna

43:20

have a clean energy transition and diversify our

43:22

clean energy supply chains. And

43:25

if every country says we need to own the

43:27

entire supply chain, because we want all of those

43:29

economic benefits, it's gonna make the clean energy transition

43:31

so much harder. The

43:39

battery economy is here and it

43:41

is shaping so many things. I'm

43:44

talking about global trade, geopolitical relationships,

43:46

domestic industrial policies, climate targets. But

43:49

battery supply chains also matter to every single

43:51

one of us. There are

43:53

millions of jobs at stake and there

43:55

are environmental and human costs to mining.

43:58

And the availability of batteries. has direct

44:00

impacts on the health of the

44:02

grid and the affordability of mobility

44:04

and electricity. And

44:07

people like Alessandra Carreon, who now

44:09

serves as a public service regulator

44:11

in Michigan, are grappling with the

44:13

real-world consequences of how battery supply

44:15

chains are structured. I

44:18

can't imagine how we can

44:21

justify ongoing investments in aging

44:23

infrastructure that has served us

44:26

to date without thinking about

44:28

the role of new and

44:31

increasingly affordable technologies like

44:34

batteries or energy storage

44:36

systems to meet that

44:38

charge, especially as

44:41

they become more accessible and

44:43

distributed and therefore can

44:46

help promote equitable, affordable

44:48

access to more

44:50

energy service customers. Yeah,

44:53

it's not that far removed from where

44:55

I sit now to think about how battery

44:57

supply chains matter. Coming

45:03

up this season, we're going to visit

45:05

all the steps in the battery supply

45:07

chain from mining to processing to manufacturing

45:10

to recycling. And we'll ask,

45:12

what are the benefits and tradeoffs

45:14

for the economy, the environment, and

45:16

human well-being? The

45:20

big switch is produced by Columbia

45:22

University's SIPA Center on Global Energy

45:24

Policy in partnership with Latitude Studios.

45:26

If you appreciate the reporting and storytelling that we're

45:29

doing here, you can rate and review the show

45:31

at Apple and Spotify. And you can also send

45:33

a link to a colleague or a friend who you think would

45:35

like it. You can find all

45:37

of our back episodes along with this

45:39

current season wherever you get your pods.

45:41

The show is produced by Daniel Waldorf,

45:43

Mary Catherine O'Connor, Anne Bailey, and Stephen

45:46

Lacy. Anne Bailey is our senior

45:48

editor. Sean Marquand wrote our theme song and

45:50

makes the episode. And thanks to Austin Cope

45:52

for field producing. A special

45:54

thanks to our Columbia team, Harry Kennard,

45:56

Natalie Volt, Tulee, Jen Woo, Liz Smith,

45:59

and Tom Warren-Hann. This show

46:01

is hosted by me, Dr. Melissa Lott. Thank

46:03

you so much for listening. Stay

46:05

tuned for episode 2 on the Tweet.