In 9 days, Donald Trump lands in Beijing for the first presidential visit in 8 years. But this isn't 2017—the world has changed.

The Iran war is in week 9. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked. China has ordered its firms to ignore U.S. sanctions. Beijing banned drones citywide for summit security. A C-17 Globemaster is already on the tarmac.

Meanwhile, U.S. leverage is diminished. The Supreme Court killed the tariff weapon. The trade deficit fell 32% but America lost 91,000 manufacturing jobs. "Managed trade" is the new doctrine.

Wang Yi drew the red line early: Taiwan is the "biggest risk factor." Three scenarios await: a narrow trade deal (55%), a framework announcement (30%), or a breakdown over Taiwan or Hormuz (15%).

The summit won't transform U.S.-China relations. But it might stabilize them and in 2026, stability is victory.

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