Episode Transcript
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Welcome to the Coin Stories News Block powered
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by BitDeer. I'm Natalie Brunell and in the
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span of just 10 minutes, roughly the time
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it takes to mine a Bitcoin block, I'll
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provide you with concise, insightful updates on Bitcoin
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and the global financial landscape. Everything you need
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to know in one place in one block.
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Let's go. Over
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the weekend, we saw Bitcoin's price crash by
0:26
about 10% as conflict
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in the Middle East escalated when Iran attacked
0:30
Israel. Markets hate uncertainty
0:32
and when geopolitical tensions rise, it can
0:35
spook investors, resulting in sharp sell-offs like
0:37
the one we just experienced. And when
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major global shockwaves hit on a weekend,
0:41
well, Bitcoin is the only macro asset
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you can trade 24-7, 365 days a
0:46
year. So
0:49
it makes Bitcoin available to sell
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at any moment. When markets experience
0:53
stress, investors sell whatever's liquid
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to hedge against other asset classes,
0:58
and it's really no surprise that we saw Bitcoin
1:00
react first to the drone strikes over the weekend.
1:04
As I said on Fox Business on Monday,
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the fast money trades these events or gets
1:08
liquidated due to leverage. The
1:11
smart money and the permanent capital is here
1:13
to stay because it is seeking shelter in
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Bitcoin as a flight to safety over the
1:17
long run. Now, as
1:19
expected, this price drop had some Bitcoin
1:21
skeptics coming out of the woodwork, like
1:23
CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, who
1:26
tweeted, quote, trying to understand Bitcoin's price
1:28
movements this weekend. If
1:30
it is, as Bitcoin bulls believe, a store of
1:32
value during a war, wouldn't it be considered a
1:34
safe haven? And if
1:36
it is a hedge against inflation, wouldn't buyers
1:38
rush to it out of fear that countries
1:40
will spend more on conflict? What
1:42
explains its fall? I'm genuinely curious to
1:45
hear various perspectives. Okay,
1:47
I have a ton of thoughts on this, but
1:49
the first one that popped in my mind is
1:51
actually a quote from bestselling author Morgan Housle, who
1:53
said, every investor is making a bet
1:55
on the future. It's only called speculation when you
1:57
disagree with some of the things you're thinking about.
2:00
someone else's bet or time horizon.
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What I would say to Andrew Ross-Storkin is WTF. What
2:07
timeframe? Lengthen your
2:09
time horizon, zoom out, and consider
2:11
how these developments can bolster or
2:14
undermine Bitcoin's long-term value proposition. Historically,
2:16
Bitcoin has sold off immediately on
2:18
news of war breaking out, only
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to sharply rebound in the coming
2:23
months. Last year, when
2:25
Hamas attacked Israel, Bitcoin immediately dropped in the
2:27
wake of the news, only to
2:29
shoot up more than 25% in the coming months. Right
2:33
now, it feels like we're on the
2:35
brink of another world war. Geopolitical conflict
2:37
is accelerating, and war is always inflationary.
2:39
It offers the perfect excuse for printing
2:42
more money without asking any of us
2:44
for consent. And wars are expensive.
2:46
A common theme of all wars is a
2:48
sharp rise in government spending. And the things
2:50
you don't want to own during times like
2:52
this are cash, which will be devalued, and
2:55
bonds, which the government will flood with new
2:57
supply as they borrow more money for their
2:59
war efforts. The data proves this,
3:01
too. The CFA Institute published data that
3:03
showed that during World War II,
3:05
Treasury bonds returned double-digit losses for
3:07
investors when taking into account inflation.
3:10
And if you do hold cash, you're definitely going to
3:12
have a bad time. Don't believe me? Well,
3:14
just listen to what Warren Buffett had to say about it in 2014.
3:18
When people start to think, well, this could be the
3:20
beginning of something really bad. It could be even a
3:22
World War III situation. It could be a return to
3:24
the Cold War. Does any of that
3:27
ever go through your mind? Well,
3:29
if you tell me all of that's going to happen, I
3:32
will still be buying the stock. You're
3:34
going to invest your money in something over time. The
3:37
one thing you could be quite sure of
3:39
is if we went into some very major
3:41
war, the value of money would go down.
3:43
I mean, that's happened in virtually every war
3:45
that I'm aware of. In
3:47
times of war, investors want to
3:50
own hard, scarce assets like Bitcoin
3:52
that cannot be devalued and that
3:54
will outpace the rising inflation. But
3:56
also one of the reasons we've seen a surge in
3:59
the price of gold. which we have
4:01
to acknowledge. Gold has historically functioned
4:03
as a safe haven asset that
4:05
investors flee to during times of
4:07
geopolitical or economic upheaval. Central
4:09
banks have been buying record amounts of gold
4:11
over the last couple of years, and
4:13
gold has outperformed bitcoin over the last
4:15
months. But when you zoom out,
4:17
the scoreboard is clear. Bitcoin still shines.
4:20
And the reality is both bitcoin and
4:22
gold are poised to do well if
4:24
the traditional system grows increasingly unstable and
4:26
inflationary pressures continue to mount. But in
4:29
the long run, only bitcoin has all
4:31
the properties that will enable it to
4:33
become the foundation of a new monetary
4:36
system. We already tried it
4:38
with gold, but because of its defects,
4:40
namely its physicality, it led to fiat
4:42
and a system built on IOUs and
4:44
leverage. It's bitcoin's time now. And
4:47
unlike gold, which people will be trying to
4:49
mine on asteroids if it were to somehow
4:51
hit $100,000 an ounce, no
4:54
bitcoin price or level of demand
4:56
can increase the supply. As Jack
4:58
Moller said, you can always direct
5:00
more energy to mine gold out
5:02
of the ground. You can't travel
5:04
in time to mine more bitcoin.
5:07
And on the topic of rising geopolitical
5:09
tensions, we're witnessing the world become more
5:11
fragmented and multipolar, and bitcoin has no
5:14
stake in any of it. It's a
5:16
neutral place to store wealth without having
5:18
to worry about who wins or loses
5:20
in any conflict. Bitcoin is peaceful, and
5:23
it's really the only thing certain during
5:25
times of chaos. It's the only thing
5:27
predictable. Wars are political. The
5:30
dollar and every fiat currency is
5:32
political. Bitcoin is apolitical and
5:34
incorruptible. It just keeps going like clockwork.
5:36
The halving won't be delayed or postponed
5:39
due to any outbreak of violence. It
5:41
will arrive as scheduled at block 840,000. So, kick talk, next
5:44
block. The
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and explore how they are pioneering the
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future today. Turning
6:15
now to China, where multiple asset managers
6:17
announced that they have received conditional approvals
6:19
from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures
6:22
Commission to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs. These
6:25
ETFs will help boost Bitcoin adoption in the
6:27
long run as more ETF products around the
6:29
globe mean more ways for investors to gain
6:31
exposure. But although this is no doubt good
6:33
news, it's important to remember that the Hong
6:35
Kong stock market is just a fraction of
6:37
the size of the U.S. stock market. Bloomberg
6:40
Senior Analyst Eric Beltunas threw some cold water
6:42
on the excitement when he said quote, don't
6:45
expect a lot of flows. I saw one estimate
6:47
of $25 billion. That's
6:49
insane. We think they'll be lucky to get $500
6:51
million. But
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Beltunas also added, just to be clear, all
6:55
of this is clearly positive for Bitcoin as
6:58
it opens up more avenues to invest. All
7:01
right, let's talk about inflation, which continues to
7:03
run hot. Last week, CPI rose
7:05
3.5% year over year above expectations. Shelter
7:10
and energy costs drove the increase in the
7:12
headline number. The shelter component
7:14
of CPI is particularly interesting because
7:17
higher interest rates meant to bring
7:19
inflation down could actually be contributing to
7:21
rent and home prices remaining high. And
7:24
it's crazy to think how many people wouldn't
7:26
be able to afford the home they're currently
7:28
living in at current prices and mortgage rates.
7:31
Oppenheimer CIO John Staltfuss recently argued
7:33
that lower mortgage rates would prompt
7:35
more people to sell their homes,
7:37
leading to more supply and potentially
7:39
softer prices. But we haven't seen
7:41
home prices fall because no one
7:43
is selling. People are locked into
7:45
low 30-year mortgage rates. And who
7:47
wants to move when their new
7:49
mortgage would effectively be double? This
7:51
has caused home prices to stay high,
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which forces more people into renting, which
7:55
keeps rent levels elevated and ultimately leads
7:58
to higher CPI prints. The
8:00
Times recently covered this one. It found
8:02
that about seventy percent of all Us
8:04
mortgage holders had raised more than three
8:06
percentage points below with the market would
8:08
offer them if they tried to take
8:11
out a new loan. And the shelter
8:13
component is the largest when it comes
8:15
to calculating Cpc. So the fact that
8:17
inflation remains elevated should surprise no one.
8:19
And one note on inflation. He recently
8:21
came across a chart that showed how
8:24
price increases major fast food restaurants have
8:26
risen faster than Cpm nights. Mcdonalds prices
8:28
have more than doubled since Twenty. Fourteen
8:30
despite Cp I inflation only rising
8:32
thirty one percent over that time
8:34
phone. Traditionally fast food is the
8:36
cheap option for struggling families, but
8:38
now feeding a family at Taco
8:40
Bell or Mcdonalds has never been
8:42
more expensive. Coin. Base just
8:45
released a new ad on how
8:47
holding bitcoin has allowed a person
8:49
to buy more pizza with each
8:51
having they wrote food for thought?
8:53
What if money was designed to
8:55
get you more overtime? A nautilus?
8:57
everything's and pizza to homes are
8:59
getting cheaper when placed in Bitcoins
9:01
and as time goes on, you
9:03
can buy more goods and services
9:05
with fewer. Bitcoin is is why
9:07
Bitcoin is the best solution to
9:09
the pernicious theft of inflation. Allright
9:12
last story This week it's a video
9:14
clip that went viral of us see
9:16
Fighter Re not only Cornell after he
9:18
won his fight at U F C
9:20
three Hundred and in his post victory
9:23
speech, he gave a shout out to
9:25
Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and told
9:27
everyone to read his lectures on inflation
9:29
and capitalism. He talked about the importance
9:31
of property rights, and then he tweeted
9:33
that he wants his bonus to be
9:36
paid in Bitcoin when professional athletes are
9:38
talking about Austrian economics and asking to
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be paid in Bitcoin. Than you
9:42
know, Bitcoin is starting to reach people
9:45
from all walks of life and that
9:47
makes me optimistic because everyone needs Bitcoin
9:49
and Bitcoin is for everyone. And
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that's. It for the news lock powered
9:54
by bit the or your weekly bitcoin and
9:56
economic news update. I'm Natalie Brunel. Make sure
9:58
you're subscribed to Points. you never miss
10:00
an episode. This show is for educational
10:03
purposes and should not be construed as
10:05
investment advice. Until next time, keep stacking.
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