Episode Transcript
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0:02
Welcome to the Coin Stories News Block powered
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by BitDeer. I'm Natalie Brunell and in the
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span of just 10 minutes, roughly the time
0:08
it takes to mine a Bitcoin block, I'll
0:10
provide you with concise, insightful updates on Bitcoin
0:13
and the global financial landscape. Everything you need
0:15
to know in one place in one block.
0:17
Let's go. After
0:23
hitting a new all-time high, Bitcoin Euphoria appears
0:25
to be taking a little breather. Bitcoin
0:28
has dropped around 10% to below $65,000
0:30
in recent days and then rebounded to
0:32
the 67-68,000 range. Now,
0:35
it's important to remember, especially for those who
0:37
are new, that pullbacks like this are normal
0:39
during bull markets. Bitcoin does not go up
0:41
in a straight line. Head of
0:44
research at Galaxy Digital Alex Thorn highlighted this
0:46
when he showed how Bitcoin experienced 13 separate
0:48
12% drawdowns from
0:51
the lows in January 2017 to the
0:54
all-time highs made in December of that year. Now,
0:57
this trend also held true for Bitcoin's
0:59
next bull cycle. Thorn showed that Bitcoin
1:01
experienced, once again, 13% to 10% drawdowns
1:05
from the lows in March 2020 to
1:07
the all-time highs made in April 2021.
1:10
So the moral of the story? Larger price
1:12
drawdowns than the one we're experiencing are par
1:14
for the course and for investors with high
1:16
conviction, price dips like this are just
1:18
a great way to scoop up more sats before the
1:21
bull market marches on. And there
1:23
may not be a bigger Bitcoin bull on
1:25
the planet than MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor. Over
1:27
the last few weeks, we've covered on this show
1:29
how Saylor is raising cash to the tune of
1:32
hundreds of millions of dollars through both the equity
1:34
and debt markets to buy more Bitcoin. Saylor
1:37
didn't wait long to tap the debt markets once
1:39
again, announcing late last week another $525 million raise.
1:43
And this came just days after
1:45
MicroStrategy raised $800 million and turned
1:47
around and bought 12,000 Bitcoins. So
1:50
you might not be stacking this dip, but I
1:53
bet you Saylor is. And
1:55
this strategy has, at least in part, contributed
1:57
to an absolute surge in trading volume for
1:59
MicroStrategy. strategy stock. Last week it
2:01
traded more than Amazon's according to
2:04
Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Beltunas and
2:06
when you combine microstrategy's trading volume
2:08
with the ETF Beltunas notes that
2:10
Bitcoin equities are doing more than
2:12
20 billion dollars worth of
2:14
trading volume daily and microstrategy isn't
2:17
the only big entity buying Bitcoin
2:19
right now. BlackRock continues to gobble
2:21
up coins at an impressive pace
2:23
and although this is not a
2:25
true apples to apples comparison because
2:27
microstrategy actually owns Bitcoin whereas BlackRock
2:29
manages an ETF that holds Bitcoin on
2:32
behalf of its customers it's still true
2:34
that these entities appear to be in
2:36
a race to see who can acquire
2:38
the most Bitcoin. Last week BlackRock's ETF
2:40
surpassed microstrategy and now holds more than
2:42
230,000 bitcoins compared to microstrategy's 205,000 and
2:44
it's worth noting
2:48
that both corporations are still behind
2:51
grayscales ETF which holds 380,000. Now
2:55
something else to note with BlackRock last month
2:57
a quant analyst from the company gave a
3:00
presentation at an exclusive event to top
3:02
clients and said that a 28% allocation
3:05
to Bitcoin was quote not unreasonable
3:07
so some clients may have taken
3:10
that recommendation to heart and also
3:12
BlackRock recently announced that it will
3:15
include its Bitcoin ETF in multiple
3:17
funds including its 18 billion dollar
3:19
global allocation fund and its 36
3:22
billion dollar strategic income opportunities these
3:25
are large passive funds and this news
3:27
hints at the next evolution for these
3:29
Bitcoin ETFs issuers including them
3:31
more and more into their passive
3:33
funds which will create a continuous
3:35
flywheel of demand for Bitcoin. I
3:38
read a common narrative during the last bull
3:40
market was that corporations would follow the micro
3:42
strategy playbook and we would see this large
3:44
wave of corporate demand that would drive Bitcoin's
3:47
price higher but unfortunately that has yet to
3:49
materialize in a significant way why well for
3:51
starters it's rare for a leader to have
3:53
control over the voting rights for a large
3:56
corporation which is the case the sailor and
3:58
micro strategy and this gives the
4:00
power to steer the ship and execute on
4:02
a Bitcoin strategy without much opposition. Other
4:05
corporations don't have the same corporate
4:07
governance structure. Secondly, a lack
4:09
of clear accounting rules made it challenging
4:11
for corporations to put Bitcoin on their
4:13
balance sheets. But this all
4:15
changed earlier this year when new accounting rules
4:18
were approved that will make it easier than
4:20
ever before for corporations to buy Bitcoin, and
4:22
we're already beginning to see more evidence of
4:24
corporations embracing it. One story that
4:26
went under people's radars last week was when
4:29
Traeger Grills, a popular grilling company, you may
4:31
have heard about it from Joe Rogan, that
4:33
has more than $600 million
4:35
in annual revenue, announced that it will
4:37
begin accepting Bitcoin as a form of
4:39
payment. And here was the key point.
4:42
They may or may not liquidate the Bitcoin
4:44
upon receipt. So the wording here suggests that
4:47
Traeger is not only interested in accepting Bitcoin
4:49
for payment, but will also consider holding onto
4:51
the Bitcoin if they do receive it. So
4:53
whereas last cycle could be viewed as a
4:56
bit of a disappointment when it came to
4:58
corporate Bitcoin adoption, this cycle is shaping up
5:00
to be different. It's just another reason to
5:02
be bullish for the next couple of years.
5:05
And hey, maybe consider a Traeger Grill for
5:07
the backyard. The
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One consequence of the success of
5:38
the Bitcoin ETFs is that large financial
5:40
institutions appear to be getting increasingly
5:42
bullish on Bitcoin. Global banking
5:44
giant Standard Chartered recently increased its Bitcoin price prediction
5:47
for the end of 2024 from $100,000 to $150,000
5:49
and also updated its price prediction for 2025
5:55
to $250,000 a coin. Standard
6:00
Chartered analysts noted the success of the
6:02
ETFs and the sharper than expected price
6:04
gains this year as the primary reasons
6:06
for increasing their price predictions. And
6:09
it's not just Standard Chartered. A recent JP
6:11
Morgan Securities report estimated that $220 billion could
6:13
flow into the ETFs over
6:17
the next three years, and that
6:19
could be quote, quite impactful to
6:21
Bitcoin's price given the multiplier on
6:23
capital. So what exactly do they
6:25
mean by multiplier on capital? This
6:28
is alluding to the idea that Bitcoin's price
6:30
historically has been extremely sensitive to new
6:32
dollar inflows. In 2021, a Bank of
6:34
America study estimated that it only took
6:36
$93 million of new inflows to
6:40
move Bitcoin's price one whole percent. To
6:43
put this into perspective, the same Bank of America study
6:45
found that it took more than $2
6:47
billion of inflows to move the price of gold
6:49
1%. And this
6:51
recent JP Morgan report estimates the current
6:53
multiplier on capital and Bitcoin at 25x,
6:55
meaning that for every new dollar that
6:57
flows into Bitcoin, it adds $25 to
7:00
its market cap.
7:02
So if the analysis is correct here
7:05
and $220 billion flows into the Bitcoin
7:07
ETFs over the next three years, these
7:10
flows alone could increase Bitcoin's price to
7:12
$280,000 per Bitcoin. Let's
7:17
shift gears now over to the fiat world. Treasury
7:20
Secretary Janet Yellen made headlines last week
7:22
when she admitted in an interview with
7:24
Fox Business that she regrets calling inflation
7:26
transitory. Listen to this. In
7:28
2021, you did say that inflation was transitory.
7:31
Do you regret saying that now? I
7:33
regret saying it was transitory. It
7:36
has come down, but I
7:38
think transitory means a few
7:40
weeks or months to most people.
7:43
So transitory was the messaging from both
7:45
the Federal Reserve and Treasury when it
7:47
came to inflation, and they turned out
7:49
to be very, very wrong. And although
7:51
inflation has come down, CPI still remains
7:53
above 3%, and core CPI,
7:56
which subtracts food and energy, remains closer
7:58
to 4%. Both
8:00
measures are still well above the Fed's 2%
8:02
target, and they don't appear likely to reach
8:04
that level any time soon. But
8:06
to anyone who can connect the dots between printing more
8:08
than $6 trillion and the rise in
8:11
prices everywhere, the sickiness of
8:14
this inflation comes as no surprise. And Americans
8:16
should get used to higher inflation levels considering
8:18
that our government continues to spend money at
8:20
a crazy clip. If adopted, and
8:23
that's a big if, the new 2025
8:25
Biden budget proposal expects to run a
8:27
nearly $2 trillion
8:29
fiscal deficit next year. Larry Laparte
8:31
is one of my favorite people who has been
8:33
hammering the table that we will not be going
8:35
back to a 2% inflation world.
8:37
And I just had him on CoinStories to
8:39
discuss how investors should look at hard money
8:41
like gold and Bitcoin to protect their wealth.
8:44
You may be surprised to hear what he
8:46
says about his gold allocation. All right, I'd
8:48
like to end this news block with just
8:50
a couple of quick headlines and updates. El
8:52
Salvador's president, Naeib Bukele, recently tweeted that the
8:55
country moved about $400 million worth
8:57
of its Bitcoin holdings into a cold wallet,
8:59
calling it, quote, our first Bitcoin piggy
9:01
bank. It was notable because El Salvador
9:03
is now using Bitcoin in a sovereign
9:06
way. The government now has full control
9:08
over the funds without any trusted third
9:10
party. And it's also interesting
9:12
because this tweet revealed that El Salvador
9:14
holds more than 5,500 Bitcoin, which
9:17
is nearly double the amount that was
9:19
previously thought. So if there's one country
9:21
that has benefited significantly from Bitcoin's recent
9:23
rally, it happens to be the smallest
9:25
country in Central America. Lastly,
9:27
the Bitcoin community celebrated a win this past
9:30
week when a UK court deemed that Craig
9:32
Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto. The judge concluded
9:34
that Dr. Wright is not the author of
9:37
the Bitcoin white paper. He is not the
9:39
person who adopted or operated under the pseudonym
9:41
Satoshi Nakamoto. He is not the person who
9:43
created the Bitcoin network. And he is not
9:46
the author of the initial versions of the
9:48
Bitcoin software. Craig Wright had
9:50
claimed for years that he was the
9:52
inventor of Bitcoin. He's used the slide
9:54
to confuse newcomers and push other projects.
9:56
And He's even sued Bitcoin developers and
9:58
influencers over the years. That's false claim.
10:01
After this ruling, the bitcoin community
10:03
can finally move on from this
10:05
charade. Peter Mccormick, who is one
10:07
of the prominent voices that cried
10:09
Right attacked said it best quote.
10:11
We are also Toshi except for
10:13
Cried Right who is literally the
10:15
only person who is it confirmed
10:17
by law. That's
10:19
it for the new lock Powered by Bit.
10:22
The are your weekly bitcoin and economic news
10:24
update. I'm Natalie for now. Make sure you're
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subscribed to coin stories. You never miss an
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episode. The shows for educational purposes and should
10:30
not be construed as investment. Agree until next
10:33
time.
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