0:02

A listener production. The

0:06

Aussie market's winning streak remains alive. And

0:09

we're getting into the meaty part of this week from

0:11

here. What should you be watching in the next 24

0:13

hours? Good afternoon, I'm

0:15

Steve. I'm Laura. It's Wednesday the 10th

0:17

of April. Welcome to the Comsec Market

0:19

Update. Well Laura, it

0:21

looks like in the dying stages of

0:23

the session, we're going to just hold

0:25

on to another improvement, third straight day

0:27

of gains if that ends up being

0:29

the case. And we're up slightly at

0:32

least. At the moment, we're up 20 points

0:34

or about a quarter of 1%. We

0:36

were up a little bit more earlier in the session, up as

0:39

much as 0.1%. But

0:41

we have eased as the session's gone on. But

0:43

the good news is, as you mentioned, that still

0:45

extends our winning streak to a third straight

0:48

day. And last night, we saw quite

0:50

a muted session over in

0:52

the US, of course. We were waiting

0:55

for those all-important inflation figures, which we'll

0:57

get to a little later in this

0:59

podcast. But that's really kept markets sort

1:01

of steady, not moving too much ahead

1:03

of those figures. Especially

1:05

the US market. I mean, it's done almost nothing

1:07

for the last couple of days because there are

1:10

nerves ahead of this inflation data, which we'll get

1:12

to. Look at least over the first

1:14

three days of the week, our market's up by about

1:16

0.9%. Mind

1:19

you, our market fell 1.6% last week. So

1:22

we're bouncing back from what was a pretty difficult

1:24

week, at least, for our markets, where

1:26

early on a week ago, we hit a record high,

1:29

and then we had that difficult little period. But

1:31

in addition to the inflation data out of the

1:33

US tonight, of course, we'll have minutes from the

1:35

US central bank. We've got plenty of central banks

1:37

meeting as well. And then right at the end

1:39

of the week, of course, the quarterly profit reporting

1:41

season in the US kicks off. But taking

1:43

a look at something that actually happened

1:46

during today's session, we had that interest

1:48

rate decision over in New Zealand. And

1:50

as expected, they did keep rates steady.

1:53

But something that did come out of this

1:55

was some of the commentary. They actually said,

1:58

and I quote, most major central banks. banks

2:00

are cautious about easing monetary policy

2:02

which means just reducing interest rates

2:04

given the ongoing risk of persistent

2:06

inflation. So they sort of commented

2:08

on behalf of the central banks

2:11

across the world, didn't they? They

2:13

certainly did and the next couple of days of course we're

2:15

going to be hearing from many more of those. So we'll

2:17

see if anything comes out of it. Probably

2:19

not really having a major impact on our

2:21

market at all. I mean, you know, we

2:24

did reasonably well across almost all sectors. In

2:26

fact, the sector that really pulled back today

2:28

was the tech sector which was down about

2:31

The financials of course which includes the major

2:33

banks were mostly low with the exception of

2:35

Westpac which is just a slightly higher. Energy

2:38

stocks which, you know, rose partly

2:40

in the prior week because of higher

2:42

oil prices. They've come under a bit of

2:44

pressure as oil prices have also taken a bit

2:47

of a dip. But the mining sector has been

2:49

certainly one of the driving forces of our share

2:51

market at least over the past couple of days.

2:53

Some strong improvements coming through from a sector that's

2:56

been an under-performer since the start of 2024. Yeah,

2:59

we saw the big plays, you know,

3:01

BHP, Rio and Fortescue up for a

3:03

second straight day and of course, unsurprising

3:05

because iron ore prices did put higher

3:08

again last night. We did see gold

3:10

hitting a fresh record high last night

3:12

as well. But interestingly, gold stocks have

3:14

been mostly lower today. So they have

3:16

been retreating from recent gains. It seems

3:18

to be potentially profit taking. So some

3:21

investors potentially selling while prices are higher.

3:23

Now looking at some of the individual

3:26

performers today, look, a lot of the

3:28

top and bottom performers have had

3:30

no news release. So there's nothing to

3:32

draw the link between why they're improving

3:35

or declining. But one stock that

3:37

did catch my eye for a third day in

3:39

a row, medical glove maker and sell, they've extended

3:41

their gains to a second straight day. Investors

3:44

still seem like they're quite excited about

3:46

the news that they'll be acquiring a

3:49

complementary PPE business. They're

3:51

up 3.4% today, still hovering around

3:53

a nine month high. And

3:55

sell shares up around 10% this week

3:58

so far, making them the third

4:00

day. best performer over the week to

4:02

date. This has helped them

4:04

get into positive territory for the year so far. They're

4:06

up around 5%. This 10% lift

4:09

that we saw this week has actually gotten them into

4:11

that positive territory for the year. If

4:14

we look at what happened in the prior years, they've

4:16

actually fallen for the past few years, actually. You

4:18

mentioned gold as well. A gold miner that

4:21

received attention today was Perseus Mining. Not doing

4:23

so well. One of those stocks in that

4:25

gold mining space that went backwards, falling about

4:27

2.5%. Now, this is a $3 billion

4:29

gold miner that has a lot of

4:31

its assets across parts of West Africa.

4:33

Well, today it released a one pager

4:36

and said that it successfully snapped up

4:38

an additional 15.5% of a Tanzanian gold

4:40

miner called Orcorp. Now,

4:43

that takes the stake in the company to almost 75% and

4:45

it ends a period where it's gone

4:48

through a bidding war with a China-focused

4:51

metals company called Silvercorp, which is based

4:53

or headquartered at least in Canada. Now,

4:55

that bidding war has lasted for a

4:57

number of months. Perseus has, as I

4:59

said, a number of projects across West

5:01

Africa and other countries. I guess it

5:04

helps expand its interest across the continent.

5:06

Now, Perseus fell with many other gold

5:08

miners today, but this is the first

5:10

decline in its share price in three

5:12

weeks and it's up 22% on

5:15

the market since the start of this calendar year.

5:18

That's six times the improvements that we've seen for the

5:20

broader market for the ASX200. Definitely

5:22

some impressive gains there. Now, you did

5:24

mention technology stocks earlier, so Wisetech is

5:27

currently doing their worst. They're actually at

5:29

the lowest level in around one and

5:31

a half months. They're down 3%. Iris

5:35

is second worst. They're down around 3% as well. So

5:38

that's sort of been weighing on the technology

5:40

sector. But now is a

5:42

good time to preview what to look

5:44

for tonight or what to be mindful

5:46

of. Of course, we have those all-important

5:48

inflation figures coming out of the US.

5:50

This is the most highly anticipated piece

5:52

of data coming out this week and

5:54

that's why of course we've seen those

5:56

quite recent sessions over in the US.

6:00

Investors as well have been watching any

6:02

data that can influence interest rate decisions

6:04

very closely, so it's no different this

6:07

time around. The number

6:09

to look for here is a 0.3% lift

6:11

in headline prices for the month of March and

6:15

3.4% in annual terms. That

6:17

would be a slight lift from where it was a month earlier, 3.2% lift.

6:21

They want inflation. This is a Federal Reserve

6:23

that dictates what happens with interest rates over

6:25

in the US. They want inflation to be

6:28

closer to that 2% mark. Markets

6:31

could easily react to this, both with anything

6:33

hotter or cooler than that data. The market

6:35

at the moment reckons there's about a 52%

6:38

chance of a rate cut in June. Those

6:41

chances have certainly been reducing or dropping back

6:43

a bit in the past week or two,

6:45

because there's been quite a lot of positive

6:48

economic data showing the health of

6:51

the US economy. This is exactly the type

6:53

of data that could either help or hurt

6:55

markets for the remainder of the week, not

6:57

only in the United States, but globally, and

6:59

that also includes Australia. That's a

7:01

really good point you make. At the beginning of

7:03

this year, markets were quite optimistic about what was

7:05

going to happen with interest rates. We started with

7:08

markets thinking there's going to be 175 basis

7:10

points of cuts over the course of

7:13

this year. This is over in the US. They

7:16

expected it to start in March. Since

7:18

then, a lot has happened. Of course, we've

7:20

had a couple of months where inflation numbers

7:23

have been hotter than expected. That's

7:25

shifted market expectations to just 65 basis

7:27

points of rate cuts over the course

7:30

of this year. That's

7:32

now a 57% chance that'll start in

7:34

June. Less rate cuts push

7:36

out further this year. There's plenty

7:38

of data that markets look at, of course, to get

7:40

an idea of what might happen with rates. Right

7:43

on the top of the list is inflation.

7:45

This is one of the more closely watched.

7:47

That's why that's going to be very, very

7:49

important for markets. In addition to that, we've

7:51

also got the Bank of Canada making a

7:53

decision on interest rates later tonight. They've got

7:55

their key policy rate at 5%. The

7:58

expectation is it's probably going to stay at the end of the year. at five,

8:00

but any indication of what's ahead and what

8:02

they're thinking in coming months will be important.

8:04

And then also tomorrow morning, we've got the

8:07

minutes from the most recent meeting of the

8:09

US Central Bank, the FLMC, they'll be releasing

8:11

that tomorrow morning. That will be another talking

8:14

point for our friends, Tom and Ryan, tomorrow

8:16

morning in tomorrow morning's podcast. Another

8:18

thing to watch in tomorrow's session, some data

8:20

out of China, so numbers on inflation, of

8:22

course they don't have an inflation problem, but

8:25

rather a deflation problem. So something to watch

8:27

them and also producer prices out of China.

8:30

I quickly mentioned there's quite a few companies

8:32

paying out a dividend as well, Woolies, Downer

8:34

EDI and Suncorp included. So have a great

8:36

evening, everyone. We'll see you tomorrow. This

8:44

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