0:02

At least snap production. For

0:05

Us inflation numbers briefly Spooks

0:07

Markets. And find out how the interest

0:09

rate sensitive sectors eight and meals the session.

0:12

Good afternoon. I'm state, I'm Laura. It's

0:14

Thursday the eleventh of April. Welcome to

0:16

the com Sick Market Update: Will.

0:20

Look Laura, it could have been worse. A.

0:22

Absolutely could have been with that the

0:24

best way you possibly could have put

0:26

it because at the start of trade

0:28

right at the opening bell who down

0:30

as much as one point two percent

0:32

which was quite of state for but

0:34

sort of on par with what we

0:36

saw in the Us session over night

0:38

after those harder than expected inflation numbers.

0:40

but as the session has gone on

0:43

we've actually improved version still down zero

0:45

point, four percent or thirty two points.

0:47

but as you point out it could

0:49

have been much much worse. Absolutely sir.

0:51

In the very early stages, as you point

0:53

out, we were down as much as one

0:55

point two percent in a one percent decline

0:58

for Us markets Last night. the market was

1:00

really holding it's breath for this latest inflation.oh

1:02

that was our last night. It was certainly

1:04

the key indicator in the United States and

1:07

also probably for of globally as well. And

1:09

it's already had a bit of an impact

1:11

on expectations for when the first interest rate

1:14

cut might actually come out of the United

1:16

States. So for those who didn't listen to

1:18

the Morning Podcast, a Consumer Prices, or. Prices.

1:21

I guess that people pay for a

1:23

basket of goods and services in the

1:25

Us or zero point four percent In

1:27

much the expectation in markets was is

1:29

that for that to lift by zero

1:31

point three percent inflation for the year

1:33

three and a half percent higher. What

1:35

was expected was that to live to

1:37

three by three point four percent again

1:39

and increase in where it was a

1:41

month earlier. And importantly core inflation was

1:43

also hotter than expected. What this means

1:45

in the Us at least is the

1:47

expectations for right cut in June as

1:50

really drop down. In it was basically.

1:52

No glimmer of hope of the right

1:54

caught in June. So we've gone back

1:56

to that high up for longer mantra.

1:58

So at the moment expect. Haitian for

2:00

a rate cut in chain, just a

2:02

sliver of hope and your posts sixteen

2:04

and a half to send that down

2:07

from around seventy five To: since it's

2:09

just not too long ago, it's a

2:11

chance of a right caught in July

2:13

Thirty five percent chance. But it's looking

2:15

more likely that over in the Us,

2:17

the rate cut will com potentially in

2:19

September, there's about a sixty five percent

2:21

chance of that happening. In. And looks like

2:24

through the session those chances of even drop

2:26

them further than that. I'm in. The couple

2:28

of weeks ago that was between is sixty

2:30

two about a seventy five percent ruins of

2:32

that they could be a the chances of

2:34

a right cut in June was what the

2:36

market was pricing so it's certainly can change

2:38

very very quickly. And at the start

2:40

of the remember that was priced in

2:42

all markets, were expecting a right cut

2:44

as early as mans. The that keeps

2:47

getting pushed back and months at a

2:49

time depending on the daughter that's come

2:51

out. There's been a few consecutive months

2:53

of inflation looking stronger than expected, that

2:55

showing that there's quite a lot of

2:57

resilience in the U S markets, and

2:59

that has investors quite cautious about when

3:01

the interest rate cut will come. And

3:03

I think that's the important pathway and listen

3:05

from oh this is that things change very

3:08

very quickly in our one wake, the expectations.

3:10

It seems like it's almost a certainty as

3:12

far as how market surprising the scene and

3:14

then you get one or two different pieces

3:16

of data particularly things like inflation and that

3:19

absolutely changes the picture. So that's what markets

3:21

extremely sensitive to at the moment and that

3:23

is likely to continue your for the the

3:25

weeks and months ahead as well. And

3:27

look it really does depend on the time

3:29

and the contacts. so maybe in prime months

3:31

if we gots a rating that was zero

3:34

point one percent hada it might not have

3:36

made markets too much and that is something

3:38

that we saw him too high a month

3:40

whereas now we've had the context as consecutive

3:42

months for inflation has been hot, always had

3:44

a job numbers just last week which will

3:46

much stronger than expected sir in the broader

3:48

picture and the bigger picture this too many

3:51

things happening that a showing that the Us

3:53

economy is quite resilience and that's why markets

3:55

are on tenterhooks right now. Perfectly said but

3:57

you know what else is important was so.

4:00

To that point when they actually said they

4:02

might actually cut rights to the closer we

4:04

getting to June. At. The more sensitive markets

4:06

are going to get. And. Another thing of note

4:08

is we feed get the S L and

4:11

see minutes which is the minutes from the

4:13

last interesting meeting in the U S and

4:15

that reflected those three rate cut C C

4:17

But that might potentially be outdated out because

4:19

that meaningless a couple of weeks ago now.

4:22

so it's looking to the next meeting is

4:24

gonna be really important from here. Tonight we

4:26

have producer prices coming out of the Us

4:28

and that's usually looked at but I think

4:30

he'll be looked at even more closely. But

4:33

if we have a look at what happens

4:35

in be Ozzy session today at the moment

4:37

leading. Into the clothes were saying sri

4:39

of the eleven sectors pushing hire some

4:42

most off falling it's really those interest

4:44

rates sensitive sectors that a falling most

4:46

property down almost to to send text

4:49

him point seven it once was only

4:51

out in these sessions and were also

4:53

saying consumer discretionary which includes those rate

4:56

hell is down quite a bit. On

4:58

the flip side though, Energy Sox they've been

5:01

some of the best performers was absolutely the

5:03

best that I actually one point two percent

5:05

higher. So we've had a bit of a

5:07

a in oil and gas prices First tensions

5:10

in the middle a certainly not helping out

5:12

there and done for the conflict in Gaza

5:14

is is threatening, talk says and hopes of

5:16

a potential ceasefire so we'll prices are up

5:19

energy stocks like with Side up two percent

5:21

or Santos up one point three beach up

5:23

one and a half possess For those wondering

5:26

as well in a what type of the

5:28

impact. The hot inflation daughter of of us could

5:30

have on us. I mean, you've mentioned some of those.

5:32

Interest. Rate sensitive areas tix.

5:35

Property. Consumers discretionary or rates held

5:37

to a lesser extent as well. They've

5:39

been some of the with performance today,

5:41

and that was partly because of what

5:43

happened with those inflation figures as well,

5:45

but also the Us dollar raise On

5:47

that. news of the expectation that rights

5:49

could be higher for longer saw the

5:52

Us dollar hitting a five month heights.

5:54

That means the Aussie dollars been quite

5:56

weak, and it's played havoc with commodity

5:58

prices at least temporarily sites. Last night

6:00

we did see certain commodities doing quite poorly,

6:02

but we've seen a little bit of a

6:04

recovery coming through for some sites. God. Initially

6:07

so. But. Then managed to recover

6:09

and that if she's been quite helpful for gold

6:11

stocks on our market which have been some of

6:13

the better performers least for a portion of the

6:16

dates. And then you mention energy as well, which

6:18

has been one of the the bright spots on

6:20

an otherwise as sea of red across our market.

6:23

Exactly right now it's it. Looked at

6:25

an end to see two winners and

6:27

losers. The conceits computershare That's one of

6:29

these Sherrod series is currently the best

6:31

performer that you're soaking up. Called Stokes

6:33

called Right Resources is Op's over four

6:35

percent cassettes on the back of that

6:37

high at gold price. And it's remember

6:39

it was just two nights ago that

6:41

he told Press hit a record high.

6:44

Now we are going higher again in

6:46

the Asian session so it's plenty of

6:48

the gold mine is on the top.

6:50

performers. Nice. We also saw some news

6:52

out of. Northern started a they

6:54

had an operational updates and while

6:56

they have been affected by some

6:58

rain they said they are still

7:00

on track to achieve the financial

7:02

Twenty Twenty Four sales guidance which

7:05

was I supposed good news. and

7:07

they did say though on the

7:09

other hand that costs were gonna

7:11

increase. Knicks they see also like to

7:13

say it was actually in a in

7:15

a training hop because Visit doesn't operate

7:17

a rising about one point three billion dollars

7:19

from investors to accelerate it's expansions at

7:21

once to updates and centers in Sydney

7:23

and Melbourne as had plenty of i guess

7:26

demand coming through for that type of

7:28

business in recent times. So next D

7:30

C says of the see not training today

7:32

but it's up about twenty two percent

7:34

started this year so said mean outperform

7:36

that competes the broader market. On the

7:38

other end there was saying one of

7:41

the Sun manages as the worst a

7:43

former that's a company called Net Wealth.

7:45

It shares a down by almost five

7:47

percent leading into the clothes and this

7:50

was quite interesting because the numbers that

7:52

they reported for their quarterly business update

7:54

for the much quarter actually seemingly quite

7:56

positive Survey: has more funds under management

7:59

which means and. More money and this

8:01

is generally good news, but unfortunately we've seen it's

8:03

share price. Pulling back today. The and the Outlook

8:05

seem to be in a relatively positive as well. That

8:07

will, though is up around twenty five percent since the

8:09

start of this is. I guess it's done well on

8:12

Now on that front. Look, it's a good time

8:14

to look ahead. I did already mentioned we have

8:16

produce. a price is coming out of the Us

8:18

to nine. Anything else it'll catch your eye. Probably

8:20

the European Central Bank it's meeting later

8:22

on this evening every time a major

8:24

central bank mates. Everyone gets pretty excited

8:26

about it depending I guess what you're

8:28

into. but the expectation here is that

8:30

we're not going to see an interest

8:32

rate move at all if already got

8:35

their rights at events for and a

8:37

half sweat four and a half percent

8:39

market written just mean I've almost no

8:41

chance of a cut their but the

8:43

focus on will be on any right.

8:45

Tuck clues for the future and in

8:47

tomorrow Friday with gotta kagan trading it's

8:49

dividend see company's. Paying dividends as well. likes

8:51

of Tpg of Southern Cross media qb a

8:53

seven group separate towns the quite a few

8:56

as and also got some tried numbers out

8:58

of China as well. and then of course

9:00

to my not will get to that later

9:02

that the Us ending season multiple sun. Times

9:05

ahead, the market never sleeps I

9:07

say. Absolutely in the money. never sleeps

9:09

as wealthy a sixty hundred down Zero point

9:11

four percent. Had a great evening. had run

9:13

see tomorrow. Hothouses

9:21

had approved and distributed in Australia by

9:23

Com Or Securities Limited Ab and Six

9:25

Or Six Seven, Two Five Four Three

9:27

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9:29

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9:31

not take into consideration your objectives, financial

9:34

situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of

9:36

the information before acting and if necessary,

9:38

seek a productive.