For roughly two years, the U.S. economy has been undermined by a challenging dynamic - a yield curve inversion. Not to be ignored, when short-term interest rates are much higher that long-term interest rates, investor and lender behavior modula

Buffett Indicator As Applied to Specific Sectors

Apr 10th, 2024 12m 1s

The Buffett Indicator (or Ratio) is a simple formula often referenced by famed investor Warren Buffett. It's simply, Total U.S. Stock Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP. The idea is basically higher ratios infer overvalued markets, while lower ra

Credit Card Delinquency & Debt Jumps Higher

Mar 25th, 2024 11m 13s

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM® shares a conversational-style review of a recent research highlight published on the firm's website discussing U.S. credit card delinquency and other correlated metrics such as household

US Output Gap Is Way Too High

Feb 24th, 2024 13m 52s

In this episode, Founder & CIO, Ivan Illan discusses the myriad issues around having a significantly positive US Output Gap - an important economic metric that reveals underlying inflationary pressures in an economy. For more information, chart

Guest Appearance on "The Conversation with Bruce Cook" - January 7, 2024

Jan 8th, 2024 27m 30s

REPLAY: On-Air Live interview of Ivan Illan on AM830 from "The Bruce Cook Conversation" orignally broadcast on Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 6PM PST. Ivan and Bruce chat about various economic issues impacting folks today from interest rates and t

What Risks Are Lurking In 2024?

Dec 29th, 2023 18m 5s

In this final episode for 2023, bestselling Dummies author, Forbes Finance Council member, Founder & CIO Ivan Illan, shares some preliminary insights as to what may play out during 2024 for both stock and bond markets globally. He highlights th

REPLAY: Ivan's On-Air Interview - The Conversation with Bruce Cook on KLAA AM830

Nov 21st, 2023 22m 23s

Original Air Date: Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 6:30PM PST Listen to the replay from the on-air interview of Founder & Chief Investment Officer Ivan Illan conducted by The Conversation's Host Bruce Cook. Ivan returns to the show answering a wid

Fed Funds Rate Much Higher For Much Longer

Nov 7th, 2023 13m 15s

This episode includes references to data shared in Ivan's upcoming Forbes.com article tentatively entitled, "For Decades Fed Funds Remained Higher Than The Inflation Rate, May Be Once Again". Citing nearly 50 years of historical averages regard

The Paradox of Flattening Yield Curves

Oct 23rd, 2023 11m 4s

A more casual companion piece to Ivan's article published in Forbes on October 19, 2023, entitled "What A Flattening Yield Curve Means For Future Fiscal Fitness" Discussion on the importance of understanding the segment of the yield curve to wh

Disruptive Technology and Its Economic Impact

Sep 6th, 2023 12m 24s

In this episode Ivan cites recent PMI declines, while reframing the data that often minimizes the manufacturing sector's share of and relevance to the U.S. economy. A discussion follows on how nominal GDP data is referenced routinely, instead o

US Debt Downgrade Is Not A Big Surprise.

Aug 2nd, 2023 10m 29s

In this episode I talk about the recent US government debt downgrade by Fitch, why it happened, why it's not a big surprise, and what it might mean for everyone going forward. © 2023 Ivan Illan, AWAIM®

Ivan Illan & Bruce Cook - On-Air Live (Replay)

Jul 10th, 2023 28m 48s

In this episode, Ivan Illan rejoined Bruce Cook on The Bruce Cook Conversation, which was broadcast live on-air throughout Southern California and live streamed on KLAA AM 830 Angels Radio on Sunday, July 9, 2023 at 6PM PT. As a returning show

Bad Breadth

Jun 9th, 2023 12m 47s

If you're wondering why your investment portfolio seems to be lagging the S&P 500 Index so far this year, it's because the market has bad breadth. Bad (or, in this case meaning, very narrow) market breadth illustrates that only a very few minor

Talking Economics With Bruce Cook

May 15th, 2023 22m 13s

Yesterday (Mother's Day), I returned as a half-hour guest on Bruce Cook Conversations on AM830 Angels Radio. This podcast contains the full interview replay which was broadcast live throughout Southern California on Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:30

There Are Only Two Ways To Destroy Capital

May 6th, 2023 12m 59s

Don't be alarmed by the harse tone of this episode. A contractionary phase in the monetary cycle is a difficult and challenging one for labor, real estate, and capital markets. After years of expanding the monetary base, which had led to misall

Where's the Risk?!

Apr 6th, 2023 13m 22s

Remember that ad campiagn in the 1980's, "Where's the Beef?!"... In this episode, Ivan exclaims, "Where's the Risk?!", in reference to the seemingly non-existent level of risk in the lower-end spectrum of investment grade bonds. Referencing dat

Powell's Pummeling

Mar 10th, 2023 8m 58s

The Job Growth Conundrum

Feb 10th, 2023 13m 53s

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a seemingly phenomenal new jobs figure for January 2023. For the past several months, there have been many hundreds of thousand of new jobs created each month. But looking back over the past ye

Federal Reserve Bank Bankrupt

Jan 20th, 2023 11m 6s

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank is technically insolvent (or bankrupt in layman's terms). Of course, as "buyer of last resort", the U.S. Treasury would not allow the Fed to cease operations legally. Instead, the Fed maintains operations in the re

Higher Interest Rates = Higher Stock Volatility

Feb 12th, 2018 6m 6s

Get ready for more stock market volatility, as the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world implement tightening monetary policy.

Not lower for longer & other sundries

Sep 24th, 2017 9m 7s

Great Investors Are Actually Great Artists

May 28th, 2017 6m 39s

I love artists. Their freedom, and particularly their external quest for the root of the matter, or at least the good ones I know are like that.So too are great investors... In this podcast, I sketch the main points from my upcoming article f

What's Next For The Stock Market? Here's The Formula

Mar 4th, 2017 11m 35s

Based on Ivan's eponymous article for Forbes, this week's 10-minute podcast casually highlights how his formula was derived and how to apply it in today's markets.To read Ivan's Forbes article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecounci

ooh la la... nice yield spread!

Feb 11th, 2017 10m 59s

As global geopolitical theme of nationalism continues, sovereign debt yields are spiking. It appears like we're in for a inflationary jolt, just hope fixed income investors are ready for it!(C) Copyright 2017 Ivan Illán

Junk Bond Prices Forecast No Recession

Oct 1st, 2016 9m 34s

Either junk bonds have become much less risky or their buyers are forecasting blue skies ahead. Conclusion: junk bond prices will be the first to plummet on rate hikes.For more on this topic, read my companion article published at https://www