0:02

It's been exciting and it's

0:04

been overwhelming. It's exciting to

0:06

see people arising to see the

0:08

amount of bravery on the streets. How

0:11

this, like, young women and

0:13

men, you go stand up against

0:15

the armored police with their hands?

0:18

It's been

0:18

inspiring. Welcome

0:20

to the democracy Paradox

0:23

podcast. This is my daddy.

0:32

My name is Justin Kemp. and

0:34

I am your

0:34

host as we explore the democracy

0:37

paradox. Over

0:39

recent years, most scholars

0:41

and researchers have been focused on

0:43

democratic decline in erosion.

0:45

The narrative overlooks the

0:47

many people who live under autocratic rule,

0:49

who daily work to bring about democratic

0:52

governance in their home countries. Unfortunately,

0:56

as hard as it is to bring about

0:58

a democracy it's just as

1:00

difficult to sustain Democratic government.

1:03

The challenge then is not simply

1:05

to bring about democracy. but

1:07

a durable democracy that lasts.

1:10

Of course, most activists prefer

1:13

to work on one problem at a time.

1:15

They figured they can build a durable democracy

1:18

once they actually have a

1:20

democracy. But

1:22

Mohammed Ali disagrees.

1:25

He argues the foundations for durable

1:27

democracy begin long

1:30

before democratization. Ali

1:33

is an assistant professor of sociology

1:35

and international studies at Boston

1:38

College. His new book is

1:40

popular politics and the path

1:42

to durable democracy. Ali's

1:46

work connects back to some of the

1:48

past themes from the podcast. like

1:51

silver resistance, revolution,

1:54

and protest. He

1:56

argues longer periods of mobilization

1:58

allow for better prospects for durable

2:00

democracy. Unfortunately,

2:03

recent revolutions often happen

2:05

so quickly. that movements

2:08

don't really have time to

2:10

lay those foundations before a

2:12

democratic transition starts. Now,

2:15

I

2:16

originally spoke to Ali back

2:18

in August. It

2:20

was about a month before Protests

2:23

broke out in Iran.

2:26

I'm bringing it up because I brought

2:28

Ali back to discuss

2:30

how the protests fit into

2:32

this theory of democratic durability. But

2:35

I also wanted to hear what those protests

2:38

meant to him personally because

2:40

he grew up in Iran. So

2:43

make sure to listen until the end.

2:46

So you can hear his thoughts on

2:48

the recent protests in Iran.

2:52

Finally, I also want to mention

2:55

I've gotten some great pieces of writing

2:57

from listeners. to feature on the

2:59

blog at democracy paradox

3:01

dot com. If you're

3:03

interested in writing a post, you

3:05

can email me at jakem

3:08

Paradox dot

3:11

com.

3:12

But for now,

3:14

Here is my conversation Mohammed

3:18

Ali Mohammed

3:21

Ali Welcome to the Democracy

3:23

Paradox.

3:24

Hi, and thank you very much for having me.

3:27

So Ali, I was really, really

3:30

impressed with the book that you've just

3:32

written popular politics in the Paths

3:34

to durable democracy.

3:36

It's a fascinating book because it

3:39

touches on the idea of democratization, but

3:41

it extends beyond that. To think about

3:43

how can the strategies

3:46

that are applied during the democratization process

3:49

help lead to the consolidation of democracy

3:52

because typically we think of those as two

3:54

different phases But you're linking

3:57

the two and saying that the consolidation

3:59

of democracy really begins when

4:02

we begin to democratize. when

4:04

we begin the democratization movement.

4:06

And you actually look at

4:08

a few different cases, some succeed, some

4:10

fail. And one of

4:12

those is Egypt. And you write

4:14

the Egyptian movement of January twenty

4:17

fifth, failed to fulfill

4:19

these pro democracy functions, partially

4:22

because its success was

4:24

so rapid. Tell me about

4:26

Egypt's brief Democratic transition, and

4:28

why you believe that it failed?

4:31

Yeah. So the Egyptian revolution

4:34

started shortly after the start

4:36

of the revolution in Tunisia. It inspired

4:39

Egypt and other countries.

4:42

And they went Egypt also joined

4:45

what was called air to spring. It had

4:47

a bigger effect on the other air countries

4:49

because Egypt is so central in

4:51

both and in the Middle East. Protests

4:54

that brought down Jose Mówara

4:56

took three weeks. The

4:57

protesters did not expect this memorial

5:00

didn't expect this. No one expected

5:02

this.

5:02

this is typical in revolutionary

5:05

moments. People come to the street and

5:07

they're surprised that there are so many other people

5:09

in the street. So the opposition

5:12

groups that gather in Tagrisso

5:14

Square, which were from different

5:16

sections, but the main devoid in the

5:18

middle is is between histones and

5:20

non histones often. They were not

5:22

ready for this moment. They didn't have

5:24

conversations among each other about

5:26

what to do after the remark is got.

5:29

And these agreements started

5:31

between them right away and

5:33

were step down or was forced

5:36

step down by the Egyptian military.

5:38

So in a way, this would also put the

5:40

supreme council of armed forces

5:43

staff to the leading

5:46

role in Egyptian politics. And

5:48

the opposition also did not have a

5:50

consensus to push back to Skype

5:52

at the time. the

5:54

non installment proposition, especially

5:57

the use, they were admins in their

5:59

opposition to

5:59

Skype at that moment. Muslim

6:01

brotherhood who had been

6:03

kept away from entering formal

6:06

politics without constraints. saw

6:09

this opportunity of lifetime that

6:11

now they can participate elections.

6:13

And in the book, I emphasized that

6:16

the duration of for this matter.

6:18

One aspect of longer period

6:20

of mobilization is organization

6:22

building. This did not have for

6:24

the nonstop position. So we

6:26

have a very uneven organizational

6:29

balance in the Egyptian opposition. We

6:32

have organizational is trying Muslim

6:34

brotherhood. Now that Malartic

6:36

was gone, they were able to

6:39

translate their organizational power

6:41

on the streets to the ballot

6:43

boxes. this was not the case

6:45

for the non slums. They did

6:47

poorly in all of the election that were

6:49

held from two thousand eleven. They're referring

6:51

them that legislative election

6:53

and the presidential election, they lost

6:55

his elections one after another,

6:58

which brought them closer to the

7:00

holdovers of the constant

7:02

version of the previous region. So

7:05

this alliance was formed. The non

7:07

as long as this calculation here

7:09

and their perception was that the military

7:11

of gonna come in, remove Muslim

7:13

brotherhood and then hand the powers

7:15

to them. The prime ministership

7:17

initially was given to Hamad al

7:19

Paradox but then the

7:22

master of web app app app,

7:24

which I think the I think they're certain

7:26

which is a few days ago. And,

7:28

I mean, Baradea realized this is not

7:30

the case he resigned. And the

7:32

rest of them, I think, also realized

7:34

military

7:34

is not gonna give them the power.

7:36

Some

7:37

of them are in prison now, people

7:39

who participated in the

7:41

two thousand thirteen uprising which

7:44

led to the coup and We

7:46

have had the resurgence of authoritarianism with

7:48

a different combination. Military

7:51

is more powerful now than it

7:53

was before.

7:55

So one of the lessons that I learned

7:57

from your book about this case

8:00

was the fact that the transition was

8:02

just so rapid that it didn't

8:04

give the different groups, opportunities

8:06

to be able to work together about

8:08

what a democracy would actually look

8:10

like? How is it that they'd be able to

8:12

work together? So you had multiple

8:14

different groups, not just Liberals that were

8:16

dissatisfied with the type of government

8:18

that ended

8:20

up coming out of

8:22

the Egyptian revolution. In

8:24

contrast to Egypt though, you give

8:27

what I think you might describe as an

8:29

ideal case which was

8:31

South Africa. And South Africa's

8:34

democratization movement took

8:36

a very long time I think most

8:38

South Africans would say it took too

8:40

long, but can you tell

8:42

just a little bit about what the

8:44

democracy movement in South Africa

8:46

did differently than what

8:48

happened in Egypt?

8:49

Yeah. So you're right. South Africa

8:52

is probably the

8:54

longest depending where we start counting

8:57

where the mobilization started.

8:58

So we have mobilization protest

9:01

demonstrations during nineteen eighties, but

9:03

there were Protests in seventies sixties

9:06

and fifties. So African National

9:08

Congress was formed nearly twenty

9:10

century. They stepped

9:12

up their activities in nineteen

9:14

fifties. They had the methods of non

9:16

violent resistance, but

9:18

they were faced with heavy refreshments

9:20

of ANC decides to go

9:23

underground and take smart insurgency.

9:25

So we have a period of reasons.

9:27

And then there are a

9:29

pricings that erupted in

9:31

nineteen seventies. They were

9:33

suppressed these uprisings, but

9:35

they brought new conversations to

9:37

the opposition. Why the uprising was

9:39

failed? one of the

9:42

messages they took from this is that the

9:44

organizations of the opposition was

9:46

weak, and they had to give

9:48

opposition and also be more

9:50

inclusive and build alliances. It was

9:52

a strategy of A and C to be

9:54

inclusive. They were in alliance with

9:56

the Communist Party and they also

9:58

inclusive of white people in South

10:00

Africa that wanted to assist

10:02

their anti apartheid movement. So

10:04

Suites was a turning point

10:05

it brought down different segments of the

10:08

opposition. And

10:10

also, the South African government

10:12

suppressed their movements also

10:14

came on the international pressure.

10:17

At the same time, we have formation

10:19

of new trade unions

10:21

in South Africa that I have detailed

10:23

in the book. When the Protests

10:26

scaled up in South Africa, it

10:28

brought different wings of the movement

10:30

together, So ANC

10:32

on relying on this alliance was

10:34

able to represent opposition in

10:36

the negotiations, both the government

10:38

recognized them and opposition recognized

10:40

them. So nineteen ninety four, they wrote

10:42

a constitution, they were elections.

10:45

And at this moment, also, A and C

10:47

was able to contest power

10:49

until today, they have been empowered.

10:51

But that organization was

10:54

expansion, the formation of alliance.

10:56

and the hegemonic position that ANC

10:58

was holding into the opposition. I

11:00

think we're crucial in keeping

11:03

the transition process to move

11:05

forward for the new

11:07

institutions to be built and

11:09

supported by political leadership and

11:11

also the grassroots.

11:13

So Key part of your idea

11:15

is the fact that the Democratic

11:17

transition is more effective when

11:19

it lasts longer. When it has

11:22

time to be able to work

11:24

through all of the different

11:26

questions that are

11:28

gonna come up when the country

11:30

finally democratizes. but

11:32

I don't know that it's necessary

11:34

for that process to take a

11:36

long time so much as it is to be

11:38

able to fulfill certain steps

11:40

I would think. because if

11:42

it takes a really long time, but they don't answer

11:44

any of those questions, it's not gonna be effective

11:47

either obviously. What steps

11:49

Justin opposition make then? for

11:51

a democratic transition to actually succeed.

11:54

So

11:54

democracy is a collective game

11:57

when we agree on

11:59

certain rules for making

12:01

decision and for resolving our

12:03

conflicts. That's what democracy

12:06

is. And what are

12:08

organizations? organizations also

12:10

are collective step that have

12:12

formal rules for decision

12:14

making. An organization is not

12:16

necessarily a trend. we have non democratic

12:18

organizations. But the first step is just to

12:20

have an organization with

12:22

formal rules. Next step is to

12:24

have democratic rules. So

12:27

once that is to organize

12:29

and build organizations, I think

12:31

informal organizations, could

12:33

be resilient against nutrition, but the

12:36

ambiguity is not, I think,

12:38

compatible eventually for

12:40

democracy. building organization

12:42

also means you have a group of

12:44

people that agree to work with

12:46

each other. They practice cooperation.

12:48

and it creates capacity

12:51

for collective action.

12:53

Again, democracy is collective action

12:55

at the highest level. which builds

12:57

at lower capacity in society

12:59

for collective action. So

13:01

having these internal rules expanding

13:04

organizations. And I don't think any

13:06

society one organization can include all

13:08

segments of society. So then

13:10

learning to work with each other And

13:12

even though they disagree with each other,

13:15

eventually, they have to agree

13:17

on rules about how to resolve

13:19

disagreements. So having a different trading

13:21

discourse promoting that and showing that in

13:23

practice, which would be shown in the

13:25

internal and organization. and

13:27

in terms of how organizations work

13:29

and enter into conversation with

13:31

each other. So organization building

13:33

alliance formation and

13:35

a conversation about what do

13:37

we want, what do we disagree

13:39

about, and how we can go about

13:41

our disagreement I mean, many major fears of

13:43

democracy also emphasize processes

13:45

of deliberation and conversation

13:47

in the public sphere. which goes

13:49

also into alliance building

13:51

and organizational formation. What kind of

13:53

organization is this? What kind of

13:55

political regime do we want? These are

13:57

major questions. to be dealt

13:59

with. And having some, I think,

14:01

patience for losing formal

14:04

power initially. And now

14:06

we sit groups cannot wait. I

14:08

think if the non installment had waited

14:10

for another election in

14:12

Egypt, the popularity of

14:14

the London brother reported

14:16

that it was declining. There was

14:18

a big chance that they would have lost the

14:20

next election. As Islamicist, Indonesia

14:22

lost the two thousand fourteen

14:24

election. So having a little

14:26

patience, not becoming paranoid, and

14:28

waiting for the next electoral

14:30

chair. It

14:31

sounds like it's not just about building organizations

14:34

sounds like institution building

14:36

has to actually begin

14:38

before formal

14:40

democratization actually occurs.

14:42

And we of see that in the case of South

14:45

Africa where you have the ANC

14:47

being developed as an institution

14:49

within South Africa. You have labor

14:51

unions developing as institutions

14:54

within South Africa. It's always hard to

14:56

distinguish the line between an

14:58

organization or an institution, but

15:00

It sounds like these are institutions that are

15:02

gonna live beyond the

15:05

authoritarian past and transition

15:07

over into democracy. Do I

15:09

understand that right? Yes.

15:11

But there comes before

15:13

that collective actors that

15:15

have the job of building this

15:17

institutions, from brass loops, from bottom

15:20

up, often under conditions

15:22

of attrition and constraints,

15:24

And these are experiences.

15:27

These are these create templates about

15:29

what to do when you build them

15:31

credit institutions. And also,

15:33

this creates collective capacity

15:35

in society for upholding those

15:38

institutions. This is what I

15:40

argue is crucial for both the

15:42

quality and durability of

15:44

the new democratic regimes.

15:46

So how do you go about building

15:48

organizations and institutions in a

15:51

repressive environment. I mean, I

15:53

imagine that a repressive

15:55

state is going to recognize

15:57

that organizations and different

15:59

institutions

15:59

are starting to form around them

16:02

that are hostile to the

16:04

state. and try to

16:06

eliminate them. How

16:07

is it that people who believe in democracy,

16:10

who believe in just change

16:12

who believe in human How is it

16:14

that they can develop these organizations

16:17

within these environments? So this is

16:19

a very hard question and the

16:21

important question. So let me look at

16:23

these cases that I

16:25

examined in the book. There are

16:27

different locations that opportunities to

16:29

the royalties. One is when there

16:31

are openings from the top. So the

16:34

authoritarian regime is a big play. in this

16:36

game. And sometimes they open up and they

16:38

create space. This

16:40

opening up itself could be

16:42

response to earlier episodes

16:44

of and

16:46

I argue in the book that long year period

16:48

of mobilization are more

16:51

likely to become abusive to durable

16:53

democracy. We see this in Poland that

16:55

they examined and in South Africa.

16:57

They were protest mobilization,

16:59

and then they were both

17:01

repression and opening in response to

17:03

that. And these are those two cycles of

17:05

repression and opening in different countries.

17:08

So those venues of

17:10

opportunity from the top that are itself

17:12

results of previous episodes of

17:14

mobilization are one path.

17:16

So we see this in both Poland. and

17:18

South Africa. Another

17:20

occasions that happened is that sometimes

17:22

there are organizations that

17:24

this region has built themselves for controlling

17:26

the population. And there are often

17:28

debates among the opposition activists who

17:30

should be participating in this

17:33

for example, government made or

17:35

government caught up to trade union or

17:37

state union, or should we stay away?

17:40

sometimes activists participate and

17:42

are able to create spaces within

17:44

those top places. There are

17:46

also other spaces that has been

17:49

this as free spaces such as churches and universities.

17:51

But I think at this point, our return

17:53

Iran have learned about these free spaces

17:56

that have penetrated them and have under heavy

17:58

surveillance. It's much

17:59

harder, of course, when the regime is very

18:02

repressive to build

18:04

former organizations. But

18:06

I see still that there are

18:08

organizations formed under Retrition.

18:10

I mean, going back to make an example

18:12

of a broad receiving, though it's not

18:14

in the book. Iran is going through a very impressive

18:17

stage right now. And

18:20

if you want to build an organization

18:22

to say, stomach republic must

18:24

go. Obviously, not to cannot make

18:26

that. Even they recently closed

18:28

a charity organization that was

18:30

just running Justin poverty

18:33

campaigns. This was formerly registered

18:35

in Europe, but they had extensive

18:37

network of charity activities

18:39

throughout the country. And, of course, they have been afraid of this type

18:41

of activities, so they shut it down.

18:44

But at the same time, now we

18:46

have associations of teachers

18:48

and association of retired people

18:50

that are holding a lot And

18:53

the government doesn't recognize

18:55

these organizations formally hard

18:57

for them to have space to have open

19:00

budget and so on and so forth.

19:02

But they have their organizations and

19:04

they are not overly demanding for regime change

19:07

or transition to democracy. They want

19:09

higher wages, but they also

19:11

want to have free organizations. which

19:14

is, I think, is a fundamental democratic

19:16

right, and it's very related to what

19:18

we are speaking about. And the

19:20

regime right, we think, yes, to give give you

19:22

only the free organization and then the rest

19:25

comes with that. So the regime doesn't

19:27

recognize them. There are a lot of teachers in

19:29

prison. but they are active. They have their

19:31

organizations. They protesting.

19:33

They don't target the top

19:35

of the regime using this must school. But they

19:37

make, I think, radical demands that we want

19:39

to be in the streets. This is our right to

19:42

protest. This is in the constitution. We still

19:44

don't recognize the government, but we

19:46

keep doing. So we see this as

19:48

And we see that these organizations

19:50

can also play a role in

19:52

Sudan. It was a professional and so

19:55

situation that took the leadership role

19:57

during the protest that happened a couple of years

19:59

ago. They were

19:59

just announcing the time of place

20:02

And because it was a credible organization,

20:04

it was popular, people were participating.

20:06

But yeah.

20:07

Even under recession, there are

20:10

new ways Internet has been

20:12

used for rapid mobilization, but

20:14

Internet can also be used for

20:16

organizing. But we wouldn't see it

20:18

So visit. Protests visit

20:21

visibly, they say tomorrow is the

20:23

day of rage come to Tahrir

20:25

Square to protest police

20:27

suppression. That's how Internet is used for mobile usage.

20:29

But Internet can also be used

20:31

for organizing, but that's when active is

20:35

contact each other. They speak to each other. We

20:37

don't hear about it. We don't see

20:39

that part. The governments are

20:41

obviously going heavy

20:43

on Internet internet is now being used as

20:45

a source tool

20:47

of surveillance, and it's

20:49

become harder for activists for

20:51

using it for mobilization. I

20:53

think there are still capacities and possibilities in

20:56

Internet to be used for

20:58

organizing even within the context

21:00

of progressive regimes. you

21:02

know, the

21:02

example of a rung where you said

21:04

that there's nonprofits and

21:07

charities building up

21:09

and It's in a way

21:11

an expression of democracy itself.

21:13

It's an expression of pluralism.

21:16

It's changing the way in which

21:18

society relates to the state.

21:20

But at the same time,

21:20

we haven't seen Iran's

21:24

democratization fully take hold.

21:26

So we don't know how that's gonna really shake out, but

21:28

we can look at another example which

21:30

you do cite in the book, which is Poland,

21:32

where solidarity did not start out

21:35

as an institution of democratization

21:37

that started out with specific

21:39

labor demands, started out trying

21:41

to represent workers. And

21:44

in the end after almost a

21:47

decade, that was really the

21:49

institution and the organization

21:51

that was created that

21:54

help bring about the fall of communism

21:56

within Poland. So, I mean, we've seen that

21:58

exact template play out in other examples

22:01

in history. Yes.

22:02

The initial demands were about the Gerdans

22:05

shipyard, and it then expanded

22:07

to workers within the country, and then

22:09

it came down to this okay,

22:11

we recognize the Communist Party. We are not demanding for you

22:13

to go. Just give us a

22:16

space to organize and have our

22:18

independent trade was

22:20

the first independent trade union in the

22:22

whole communist world. So sometimes

22:25

making more moderate demands is

22:27

the more radical thing to

22:29

do. And that's what event it takes courage, and

22:31

that's what solidarity did. And then

22:33

they were suppressed. So if he spent

22:35

in nineteen eighty eighty

22:38

one, things looking very interesting in Poland.

22:40

If it's that in nineteen eighty

22:42

three, things look terrible Durable

22:44

solidarity was popular, but was

22:46

a failure. So we can't always

22:48

also, I think, judge from where we are standing

22:50

in the history. We shouldn't take a

22:52

presentist month for Iran

22:54

or for another country. It

22:56

might be in a type of nineteen eighty three moment of pulling.

22:58

I'm not saying necessarily we are there,

23:01

but there are these forces and

23:03

potentials and the history

23:05

is not determined. We

23:07

see openings and possibility or

23:09

sometimes we see constraints. No one

23:11

thought that the air spring was gonna

23:13

erupt in Tunisia. a

23:15

month before that I was in the

23:17

annual conference of Middle East

23:19

Association in November of two thousand

23:21

ten. And there were multiple panels

23:23

about the stability in Brazil and so

23:25

forth to Italian regimes. In

23:27

the Middle East, there was no can

23:29

of possibility upfront.

23:31

So key

23:32

to your

23:33

idea is that the

23:35

democratization

23:37

process, the mobilization Protests.

23:39

should last longer than sometimes

23:42

it typically does with these urban civic

23:45

revolutions that happen that take literally

23:47

just weeks, days sometimes. Our

23:50

mobilizations typically last longer than

23:52

unarmed ones. They typically

23:54

begin in the countryside rather

23:56

than in the cities. they kind

23:58

of try to outlast

24:00

the repressive

24:02

regime. Why is non violence still

24:04

more effective than an armed

24:06

mobilization that might follow your

24:08

template of lasting

24:10

years rather than Yeah.

24:12

So

24:12

I discussed it in the

24:14

group point on struggle is

24:17

more tricky to lead to durable demoxes.

24:19

We do have some demoxes that have damaged

24:21

out of on and

24:24

have sixty. El Salvador I think is

24:26

the best extent.

24:27

But most cases of arm

24:30

insurgency don't lead to democracy in

24:32

the first place. It's a

24:33

very rare pathway of armed

24:35

struggle to democracy. And

24:37

there are multiple reasons. One is that just

24:40

violence and democracy, especially

24:42

armed insurgency, they're

24:44

not compatible. You can't have a

24:46

democracy while people are shooting at each other.

24:48

Now I can say, okay. That's Paths means and that's

24:51

the ends. We use our

24:53

constituency Justin and then we

24:55

will stop it when we have

24:57

the marks. It's often not the case. It's hard to stop

24:59

violence. It's very challenging to

25:01

turn combatants to civilians, to

25:03

unarmed movements, So seen

25:05

a lot of countries with the history of civil

25:07

war that either civil war continues

25:09

or other forms of organized crime

25:12

take place which undermines quality

25:14

of the market. That's one reason. The

25:16

other major reason is

25:18

that the type of organizations that

25:20

army insurgency takes is

25:22

often non democratic. It's hierarchical,

25:25

and it's a matter

25:27

of secrecy. which is opposite

25:29

of a democratic organization.

25:31

So in general, armed

25:33

struggle is more compatible

25:36

with democratic organizations. Again, it's not

25:38

necessary. You can also have a

25:40

non democratic organization that

25:42

reached unarm struggle. But For

25:44

armed struggle, it's impossible. I don't

25:46

know any democratic organization

25:48

that involves an armed struggle.

25:50

Even in the case of South Africa,

25:53

A and C has been criticized

25:55

for its authoritarian

25:58

internal structure, which

25:59

is in

25:59

a way legacy of arms struggle

26:02

and also a legacy of the type of

26:04

communities organizational template

26:06

they adopted and they learned from South

26:08

African Communist Party. When you have

26:10

this idea of Democratic centralism when you elect

26:13

the leaders, but then it's whatever the leaders

26:15

says the organization just

26:17

falls. So I think in those

26:19

two senses on the struggle

26:21

cannot be conducive to democracy. So

26:23

first is that it rarely even reached

26:25

a democratic regime it

26:28

often doesn't stop and

26:30

the type of organizations that are

26:32

involved are not democratic. The

26:34

other thing that usually you need like third actors,

26:36

like you and peacekeepers or

26:39

other foreign countries to come there

26:41

and make sure that the civil war

26:43

wouldn't erupt. So there are a

26:45

few cases but these are rare cases. And

26:47

it's not a common pathway for

26:49

democracy building. And people are killed

26:51

from civilians this way other

26:53

way, these wounds are just

26:55

hard to heal. They stay in the

26:58

psyche of of a nation, and we

27:00

see either effects for a long time

27:02

to come. both the interested

27:04

wars and internal civil

27:06

wars. The impression that

27:07

I'm getting is that it's not just

27:09

about building organizations over a long

27:11

period of time of mobilization. It's building

27:14

the right type of institutions that

27:16

can transition over into

27:19

democracy. So the

27:21

democratization process, like

27:23

we said at the beginning, should

27:25

already be looking forward to

27:27

the consolidation of democracy with democratic

27:30

institutions that they can carry over, and the

27:32

process is obviously not

27:34

going to be pull it out of the box and it's

27:37

ready to go from day

27:39

one. But you've got a head start if

27:41

you're going to create a durable democracy.

27:43

If you're trying to begin everything

27:45

at the moment that you

27:47

take power. I mean, there's just too

27:49

many things to be able to

27:52

handle and it's part of the reason why so many democracies

27:54

end up failing shortly

27:56

after the revolution ends.

27:59

Yeah. So when

27:59

going back to South African Poland, one

28:02

thing they did, they didn't just

28:04

build organizations. They were

28:05

practicing what would it be like to be

28:08

a democratic citizen for people who

28:10

are participating in, like, the

28:12

unions in South Africa. They

28:14

were trying to have this bottom up

28:16

democratic process within

28:18

a fact when the factory

28:20

workers elect their shops

28:22

Thoughts, and then they build

28:25

regional communities to make

28:27

decisions So participatory democracy

28:29

was being practiced in South Africa

28:31

and Poland. Poland also was the idea that

28:33

the civil society like, one

28:35

of the places that a major theory of civil society

28:38

was cultivated was by a

28:40

publishing clip shows such as Adam

28:42

Mickney. And again, their idea

28:44

was that we leave politics

28:46

to the government, the idea of antipsychotics,

28:49

and we practice civil

28:51

society even can speak with each other,

28:53

with each other, cooperate and

28:55

build collective capacity

28:57

and making decisions So, yes, organization

29:00

is a structure that

29:03

facilitates this type of participatory

29:06

democracy. Initially, there was

29:08

this idea that participatory democracy

29:10

is incompatible with organizations. So

29:12

we had this idea of absolute

29:15

tourism, and, you know, can have

29:17

it But now we have experience and these

29:19

ideas have been developed and criticized especially

29:21

within the feminist movement.

29:23

So we know about

29:26

of a structure business. So

29:28

to

29:28

have participation, you have

29:31

unique structures of

29:33

decision making, regulation, operation

29:35

and accountability. So this is

29:37

what this organization initially

29:39

can do within the movement.

29:41

And then when the cloud raise,

29:44

the leaders, the grassroots have practiced

29:46

this. They know how this works.

29:48

It's a better chance that we would also

29:51

see this coming to the higher scale when the

29:53

transition succeeds and then the

29:55

new democracy begins. So

29:58

ask you

29:59

a question that I think is on just about everybody's

30:01

mind. Tunisia was

30:03

largely considered a democratic

30:06

success today, it looks

30:08

like it might turn out to be

30:10

a failure of the Arab spring

30:12

along with some of the other revolutions that

30:14

were attempted. What's

30:15

your opinion? Tunisia

30:16

lasted almost a decade. Is that a

30:19

democratic success or a failure? I

30:20

think for

30:21

the Middle East, It's a

30:23

case of relative success. The

30:25

Middle

30:26

East is the most anti democratic, most

30:29

authoritarian region in the world.

30:31

And from the indicators like

30:33

VDM, which is a major democracy

30:35

data set, Tunisia has

30:37

reached the highest Demoxi's score any

30:39

middle eastern country has been able to

30:42

reach.

30:42

So I think Demoxi has

30:45

ended Indonesia

30:45

But we still have a decade of

30:48

democracy again. We shouldn't see this

30:50

just from the present moment that if it's

30:52

failed now, this has all

30:54

been nothing. No. I think we have had a

30:56

decades of democratic

30:58

experience in Tunisia. That's one thing.

31:00

Another thing is that the episode

31:02

of two thousand eleven to two

31:04

thousand four seen was an important episode.

31:06

When Islam

31:06

is a non Islam is faced

31:08

each other, it didn't end in

31:11

violence. Go

31:12

back to nineteen seventy nine here bloody

31:15

violence, islam is killed, nine

31:17

slums,

31:17

Egypt at the same time. the

31:19

government, non Islamist, massacre,

31:22

islands, Algeria, nineteen

31:24

ninety, nineteen ninety one,

31:25

a massacre. So

31:27

we have seen very violent

31:30

episodes of encounter betweenhistamines and

31:32

nonhistamines. We didn't see this

31:34

in Tunisia. they were able to

31:36

reach a compromise. They wrote a

31:38

constitution together that they

31:40

eventually agreed to it. and

31:42

we had a decade of peaceful democracy.

31:44

In the Middle East, political

31:46

rights were respected for a decade.

31:48

So, yes, the ending. I think you can

31:51

see the ending, but these things have

31:53

happened.

31:53

And the situation doesn't look

31:56

good in Indonesia right now.

31:58

but

31:58

still, Tunisia

31:59

has a more organized civil

32:02

society than other Arab countries.

32:04

At least in the midterm and long term,

32:06

I'm optimistic in short term and

32:09

pessimistic. So

32:10

you've kinda mentioned the term authoritarian

32:13

legacies once before. I

32:15

kinda wonder about the idea of democratic

32:17

legacies such as when

32:19

a country like Tunisia democratizes

32:22

has years of experience under

32:25

democracy whether or not that's gonna

32:27

influence its future political trajectory

32:31

as moments occur and opportunities

32:33

come up for it to democratize

32:35

once again because I

32:36

look at Europe and countries

32:39

like France, who are in their

32:41

fifth Republic, which means that they've

32:43

had five bites at the apple

32:45

before they've tried to get democracy right.

32:47

And you could still argue that we may end up finding a

32:49

sixth Republican, France, where they try to make

32:51

an even better democracy someday

32:53

in the future. Do

32:55

you expect be Democratic

32:57

legacies within some of the countries like

32:59

Tunisia or even Egypt or maybe they

33:01

might have a better success the

33:04

next time that they make an effort at a Democratic experiment

33:06

in the Middle East?

33:08

So in the

33:08

book, there's a statistical chapter

33:11

when I looked at all the them

33:13

up that have emerged from nineteen

33:15

fifty to two thousand ten,

33:17

and there I confirmed the main

33:19

argument of the book that The longer

33:21

length of on our mobilization

33:23

is associated with higher chance

33:25

of democratic tolerability and

33:27

also growth of democratic quality.

33:29

I

33:30

also look at other explanations. And

33:32

one thing that I find significant

33:34

in all the models is this previous democratic

33:37

experience. Demoxies that

33:39

have previous years of democracy

33:41

before the current episode that we

33:43

are analyzing in the model. more

33:45

likely to survive, and the quality

33:47

of democracy is also more likely to

33:49

grow. And this previous democratic experience

33:53

also provides the foundation

33:55

for further organizing and

33:57

aligning its building. It wouldn't be

33:59

automatic. political actors should

34:02

learn, should examine this, and

34:04

should enter conversation with each other

34:06

to use this is

34:08

certainly an opportunity. The main

34:10

challenge in the Tunisian opposition, like

34:12

any other opposition now is that

34:14

to overcome

34:16

fragmentation. we still see the chasm between the

34:18

Islamist party and the other

34:20

part of the political opposition

34:24

this is, I think, major divide that

34:27

should be overcome for the Indonesian opposition

34:29

to be able to push

34:31

further for democratization. And

34:34

the other thing is that to reconnect with of civil society

34:37

that were active during the

34:39

two thousand eleven fourteen,

34:42

major one was mutated to a main trade union

34:44

that has been opposition or

34:46

co opted at different periods

34:49

of Tunisian history. And then

34:52

it stood by the marks in two thousand

34:54

eleven and two thousand fourteen, the

34:56

marks sixty. Unfortunately, you

34:58

just hit stayed passive during the

35:00

current episode and even some of

35:03

the members supported the authoritarian

35:05

turn by the president. So this would

35:07

be also important for making ties within the opposition,

35:09

also activists in the trade union and bringing

35:11

it to the side of

35:13

the democratic movement. there's

35:16

a foundation. I think this would

35:18

be an important episode for the technician

35:20

observation to learn from. You also

35:22

see this in Latin America. in

35:24

Argentina, for example. We have this careness and anti

35:27

terrorists going at each other, which

35:29

contributed to the failure of the of

35:31

the thirteen in the market. see

35:33

in a couple of episodes. What what was

35:36

significant in early nineteen eighties was

35:38

that they grew more tolerance for

35:40

each other and they were

35:42

able to build a united coalition

35:44

against dictatorship and for

35:46

democracy. To I think democracy, to

35:48

come back to

35:50

Tunisia, we need to see similar steps to be taken.

35:52

Howard Bauchner: So we've been talking

35:53

a lot in the abstract and we've

35:55

talked about some historical

35:58

examples. but looking forward into the future. Do

36:00

you know of any democracy

36:02

movements that show real promise

36:04

to you? that look

36:06

like they might be able to create

36:08

durable democracies sometime in

36:10

the future. Well, the

36:12

one that I'm watching

36:15

mostly now is Brazil. So

36:17

we have had kind of back

36:19

and forth. Brazil had the long

36:21

movements for democracy The worker's

36:24

movement kicked in was formed during the

36:26

years of struggle against

36:28

authoritarianism. They came to power

36:30

more than they could after the

36:32

transition had happened. And

36:34

then we have had episode of

36:36

Democratic erosion with the presidency of

36:39

Bolsonaro. But workers' party has

36:41

state organization is strong, and

36:43

I don't wanna go through all the details.

36:45

But we know that Paths

36:48

president, Dola D'Silva, is

36:50

contesting presidency, And there's a

36:52

good chance for him to win their

36:54

elections if unusual things don't

36:56

happen. And

36:56

if it happens, I think

36:58

it would be a important success for now

37:01

because I see this is a global struggle of

37:03

authoritarianism versus democracy. I

37:05

think authoritarianism has

37:08

been emboldened. and

37:09

has taken over

37:11

several places. But

37:12

good things have happened recently. One

37:15

was in Bolivia. when

37:16

the crew was kind of subverted and civilians came

37:18

back to power, it was also

37:20

good that Morales was gone and mass

37:23

porting was able to exert itself

37:26

without its founder. Chile was

37:27

promising, and I have

37:30

hope for Brazil. These

37:32

are places that I see

37:34

And there are other movements. I mean,

37:36

the struggle is ongoing in Sudan.

37:38

In Bermej. I think that character in the game has suppressed the movement

37:41

for But there are

37:43

movements that

37:43

are weakened, that are

37:45

repressed and wounded,

37:47

but at some point,

37:48

they will come back to the surface.

37:50

We just look at the history. It always

37:52

does it go. One way, I

37:54

don't know how long this dark age of

37:57

a authoritarian turn will last,

37:59

but one thing I see from history

38:01

is that it's always not going to go

38:03

in the same direction. Well, thank

38:05

you so much for joining me. I agree with you that I

38:07

think Latin America is real bright

38:09

spot right now.

38:12

In terms of democracy, a lot of different stuff going on. One

38:14

country you didn't mention is Ecuador.

38:16

That's had a real turnaround as well.

38:19

It's an interesting part of the world that I think

38:22

sometimes gets overlooked, but

38:24

is really, you know, at the

38:26

forefront right now of

38:28

defending democracy see at the current moment. But thank

38:29

you so much for

38:30

joining me and thank you once again for writing

38:32

your book. The book once again

38:34

is popular politics and the path

38:37

to durable democracy. Thank you once

38:39

again for joining, and thank you for writing the

38:42

book. Thank you very much

38:43

for having me. It's been

38:45

a real honor for me to speak on

38:47

this podcast with

38:49

you.

38:49

Now that was my conversation with

38:52

Ali back

38:53

in August. but after months of protests in

38:56

Iran, I reached out to Ali

38:57

to get his thoughts. So,

39:00

this part of the conversation

39:02

was recorded on Friday, November eighteenth.

39:05

Here is part

39:06

two of this episode.

39:10

So

39:10

Ali, about a month after

39:12

we talked, protests broke out

39:15

in your home country of Iran or

39:17

your country of Iran, Iran.

39:20

Let's start there. I

39:21

really wanna touch on what

39:23

these protests are

39:26

really about. Yeah.

39:28

These parameters have been extraordinary. In

39:30

many ways, as I think most

39:33

of our listeners know this

39:36

started when saw a mini,

39:38

a young

39:38

Kurdish Iranian woman died,

39:41

who was killed

39:42

in the custody of the morality police

39:44

in Iran. She was picked up because of her

39:46

job, and then

39:47

protest Protests in

39:50

her hometown of Sappes in

39:52

her funeral.

39:54

and then it spread in the next phase to other

39:56

cordless cities around, then

39:59

in tearendover

39:59

protests and some other big cities, and then

40:02

we have the diffusion of

40:04

protests to other

40:05

cities around the country.

40:07

And

40:08

weeks has passed since protests

40:11

have continued despite heavy

40:14

crackdown of government.

40:16

And

40:16

the protests are about several

40:20

things. So First

40:20

thing is, this is about compulsory

40:22

job. This is about state subjugation of women's

40:25

bodies and received witnessed

40:28

protests women

40:29

have been taking up their spars, putting them on fire, putting

40:31

their hair. So the

40:33

women issues

40:34

at the

40:36

forefront we see in many

40:38

videos that women are leading

40:40

Protests young women in their

40:43

late teens and in their

40:45

twenties. So

40:45

many have observed

40:46

that this is a new generation

40:50

protesting. And main slogan

40:52

we've been hearing is when

40:54

in life, freedom, which

40:55

is rooted in the struggles of

40:58

cordish women in Turkey

41:00

and then in Syria and then this slogan

41:03

has traveled to Iran's Iran. From there,

41:05

it has become a national

41:07

slogan. We have had cities of

41:09

Protests, anti regime

41:12

protests before. starting in twenty

41:14

seventeen, twenty eighteen, twenty

41:16

nineteen, and we are currently in as we

41:18

are recording

41:20

this podcast, This is the

41:22

anniversary of two thousand nineteen Protests

41:24

we saw an uptick in protest in the last three

41:26

days in Iran. So there is

41:28

continuity of these protest with Paths

41:30

Protests there are differences. Similar to the previous

41:32

protests, there is a strong

41:35

anti regime theme.

41:37

these protests. Protesters are calling for the end

41:40

of Islamic republic and say that

41:42

is what they want. So that is also one

41:44

of the major demands of

41:46

these Protests. In addition

41:48

to that, we observe

41:51

clear ethic elements to

41:53

this protest. They started in the cordless

41:55

region of Iran, but they have spread it

41:57

in other areas of Iran. Another area that has

41:59

seen protests are in the southeast

42:01

of Iran Iran Bellevitch

42:04

minority chiefs. They are also the religious minority chiefs.

42:06

They are sunnis, Masamini, and

42:08

that part of Kurdistan. Also, they are sunnis.

42:11

there have been protests in Turkish regions in

42:14

the North West and

42:16

received clear expressions

42:18

of ethnic solidarity

42:20

between these different regions and recognition

42:22

of the diversity and

42:24

pluralism of different ethnicities in

42:26

Iran. This is new to observe this

42:29

type of soliditis to emerge at a

42:32

national level. In addition

42:34

to this, we also see a reactivation of

42:37

protests at universities in

42:40

Iran. The universities have been a

42:42

contested space in the last

42:44

four decades. It also

42:46

seems that these proteins have

42:48

spread to spoons, like

42:50

high spoons. There have been even

42:52

videos from elementary schools. You see young girls and

42:54

schools taking off their

42:56

hedgehog, taking down the

42:58

pictures of for

43:00

Maine, the leader of the Iranian revolution and first leader of

43:02

the Islamic Republic, and and the picture of

43:04

Adam Soleimani, the the senior girls

43:07

are taking them down, showing the middle fingers

43:09

to them. These pictures have

43:12

become iconic. So, yeah,

43:14

we have been observing

43:16

a big uprising that still continues today

43:18

despite heavier pressure. One

43:21

of the most startling

43:22

facts

43:24

of this set of protests have been the

43:26

calls for the

43:27

death of

43:30

Hamenei that

43:31

they're not just looking to see a

43:33

change in leadership, but they

43:35

want significant change

43:38

within Iran. I'd like to know

43:40

whether or not you feel that these protests are really about a

43:42

change towards democracy or if they

43:44

simply just want a change of who's actually

43:46

in charge. So

43:48

I think that

43:49

this moment is a heterogeneous. There is

43:51

a progressive

43:52

side that the

43:54

life,

43:56

freedom represents the idea behind

43:58

this slogan is that unless women

44:00

are free in our society, no

44:03

one would be free, and the word freedom appears.

44:05

And you mentioned the death to

44:08

Formanay is one of the main slogans.

44:10

Probably number one slogan is death

44:12

to dictator. which is a

44:14

slogan from nineteen seventy nine revolution that

44:16

has been repeated decades

44:18

after. We

44:19

had those slogan

44:21

in that previous episodes of protest that I also mentioned.

44:23

What's new is this new slogan

44:26

women, life freedom, which is

44:28

positive. It's about life. It's

44:29

not it's not about the

44:32

about death. and

44:32

it is about freedom. So it's presenting an alternative. But

44:34

I think there is an

44:38

authoritarian side to this

44:40

movement, we see that in the also lack of

44:42

tolerance from some part

44:44

of the opposition that they attacked

44:46

very partially other sides of the a

44:48

position, especially among the diaspora, we have observed kind

44:51

of a toxic atmosphere. If

44:53

for example, someone has

44:56

a different strategic

44:58

opinion or about tactics they get

45:00

attacked for not being

45:01

revolutionary enough or being

45:04

white washer or

45:06

being reformists. type of

45:07

attacks that I think is a good example of

45:10

disorganization or disorganizing

45:12

rather than organized. So for

45:15

some people who are denouncing

45:17

Islamic Republic, I

45:18

think they clearly also say what they

45:20

want. There are also calls for democracy to

45:22

do here. this word from some

45:25

activists, protesters here and there.

45:27

For some people, they're denounced in the Islamic Republic,

45:29

but they don't say as much. about

45:31

what they want instead. I mean,

45:34

comparing with I think nineteen seventy

45:36

nine, I think the democratic

45:38

expressions are

45:40

much

45:40

stronger. And as I mentioned, there are some

45:43

authoritarian sides. Also, there

45:45

are some elements that denounce

45:48

the plurality, like the

45:50

ethnic plurality of their movement. But there

45:52

are also other voices that

45:54

emphasize freedom,

45:56

emphasize democracy, emphasize plurality. I think

45:58

plurality. I think the reality is that

45:59

we have these two sides

46:02

present and

46:05

what

46:05

comes later, I

46:07

think very much depends on

46:09

the

46:10

balance of forces within these

46:12

two sets. the more protesters can articulate about

46:14

what they actually want and

46:16

what Iran life freedom means

46:18

beyond these three wars in

46:21

terms of what kind of

46:23

future protesters won in Iran. I think that

46:26

can persuade more protesters to

46:28

join these

46:30

Thoughts. Repression has failed

46:32

to contain the movements, but they are

46:34

asking regime change, and mirror disruption is

46:37

not enough. The movement needs

46:39

to accumulate more power that I

46:41

think it's a main requirement for that is

46:43

organizing an organization building that

46:45

I emphasize so

46:48

much in my book. But to organize, you need an narrative

46:50

to say where we have come from,

46:52

where we are going, and what

46:55

are our bounds. Another

46:57

expression of this tension I've seen in the movement is that a

46:59

lot of emphasis on what

47:01

we don't want And

47:04

there is some expiration of what we want, but the side about

47:07

what we don't want has become stronger,

47:09

especially with the violence that the Islamic

47:11

Republic has been unleashing

47:14

against protesters. So every day, people have been followed

47:16

by the security forces every day.

47:18

Their pictures come up. This

47:21

ignites anger and some of the revolutionists

47:23

just use these pictures and the

47:26

negotiation of violence to try to

47:28

bring more people to the side of

47:30

protesters. of the things

47:32

that I've

47:32

learned through these protests is

47:34

just how diverse is

47:37

you've already mentioned how the protests

47:39

have shown some of the pluralism

47:41

that exists, but it's not just

47:43

ethnic pluralism. I mean, Iran is a very

47:45

educated country, much more so than I think people give

47:47

it credit. Seems that

47:50

people are much

47:52

more sophisticated than

47:53

outsiders recognize.

47:56

Do you

47:56

think that the pluralism that exists

47:59

in Iran will help that

48:02

movement towards regime change or potential democracy? Or do you

48:04

think it will get in the way of having

48:06

a clear message? I

48:08

think, without

48:08

recognizing this polarization, and

48:12

building a coalition through this pluralism,

48:14

there's no other way for change.

48:16

We have different ethnicities. We

48:19

have different classes. Like, Some

48:21

workers have joined these protests. There have been

48:23

some workers' protests. Although

48:25

the news we get it, but strikes

48:27

also sometimes are not true

48:29

and are exaggerated. But this

48:31

is also the first time because we've had

48:34

workers of strikes in Iran. We've had different

48:36

occupations coming and demanding better

48:38

salaries or protesting getting

48:40

laid off. But before this, the episodes of anti

48:42

regime protests did not

48:44

really come together. Then so a

48:46

lot of workers or

48:48

laborers or occupations that

48:50

haven't joined Proteus. For example, we

48:52

have an incident that doctors'

48:54

Proteus or lawyers' Proteus. And

48:56

that news a thumbs out. And if you just read that, you will think, okay, all

48:58

of the doctors are now protesting, but

49:00

that is not true. This

49:02

movement has a lot

49:04

more potential. to actualize. And more people need to

49:06

join if this movement actually

49:08

want to change the government

49:10

in Iran. from

49:12

videos that I have seen, I think, at any day,

49:15

we have tens of thousands

49:17

of people protesting. Protests

49:20

we don't have still hundreds of thousands We

49:23

don't significantly

49:23

have had millions of protesting on a

49:26

day or

49:28

a week. Iran has between eighty five to ninety

49:30

million population. And Islamic

49:32

Republic is

49:32

a strong political regime. They

49:36

have their oil revenues, they have strong robust,

49:38

repressive apparatus that they have been observing,

49:40

and they have their own supporters

49:42

that they have been also mobilizing.

49:45

In addition to alliances with other

49:48

authoritarian superpowers or regional

49:50

powers such as Russia, or

49:52

China, or

49:54

Syria, this means that this movement needs to just

49:56

increase their ranks and bring different groups

49:58

of people. And this would not

50:00

happen

50:02

with denying the plurality. We do see some calls

50:04

currently in the opposition that let's

50:06

just keep our Justin, like, don't

50:09

bring in fragmentation In some

50:12

cases, that means

50:13

don't highlight your identity

50:16

that you record or you are belugage

50:18

or you are this or

50:20

that class. I

50:20

don't think that is going to work. People

50:22

know what their identities are and what they want. And

50:24

if we want to gain

50:28

democracy, we need to talk about

50:30

issues that would be contested

50:32

later. So the ethnic issue

50:34

is one of those issues. well, Iran wants

50:37

a federal system, for example, or a centralized

50:39

system. Some people say, let's just

50:40

leave this for this the

50:43

public has fallen. But we have learned from cases

50:46

such as Asia or Tunisia or

50:48

many of other these recenturban Civic

50:50

revolutions is that, yes,

50:52

the regime falls and then there is

50:54

no common denominator between

50:56

these groups. And that kind of conflict

50:58

and dispute that could emerge with them

51:00

would just subvertible process brings

51:02

back the old regime or give

51:04

rise to a new form of

51:07

authoritarian regime. So I think, yes,

51:09

The recognition of pluralism

51:11

is required

51:12

and fundamental for this moment

51:14

to go forward.

51:16

So Many of us have a

51:18

lot of hope for these protests, but they've gone on

51:20

for months now. It's still not clear

51:24

the final resolution will be if this is just one step in

51:27

Iran's political history or if

51:29

this is going to be something

51:32

that actually has just a massive

51:34

amount of change repercussions

51:37

going forward. Do

51:38

you

51:39

feel that these protests right

51:41

now that the things that they're

51:43

doing and the signs that you're seeing

51:45

through the Protests, that they show

51:47

the foundations for what

51:49

you describe as a

51:51

durable democracy for the future.

51:53

I

51:53

mean, I have hope as well, and

51:56

I have I think more hopeful

51:58

than before. especially because the progressive side of this

51:59

movement came out of Nova.

52:02

In the two thousand

52:04

nineteenth and two thousand

52:06

seventeen, eighteen, there were slogans in support

52:08

of the monarchy before the seventy

52:10

nine revolution. In this

52:12

time, you didn't hear

52:14

those slogans. So on this street, you don't hear any,

52:16

like, support for monolith, and instead you

52:18

have that women like Thoughts But also,

52:20

there's a

52:21

lot of anger and

52:23

anger can go different ways. Anger is part of the

52:25

social movements and revolutions, but anger

52:27

could also be disrupted.

52:30

But the same weakness I

52:32

observed, for example, in the

52:35

case of Egypt's organizational weakness. I

52:37

do see that also in Iran as

52:39

well. there are some labor syndicates,

52:41

for example, the teacher syndicate

52:44

has been very active in Iran.

52:46

So there are some

52:48

organizations that previously, they

52:50

were pursuing occupational demands.

52:53

But now, they are starting with

52:55

the protesters. They are participating and

52:57

spreading the news for protests

53:00

that teachers' organization has

53:02

called for strikes, for example,

53:04

some of the local

53:07

elites such as the leader of the Baluch

53:09

religious population in South East

53:12

has joined the protest. So I

53:14

wouldn't say the organization

53:16

is completely

53:17

absence. There

53:18

have been formal organizations that

53:20

have joined. These are organizations that the

53:22

state don't recognize. These are all syndicates that

53:25

have emerged despite lack

53:26

of recognition by the state, or regression by the state.

53:28

I know that informal

53:30

groups are organizing,

53:32

so that is also a positive

53:36

step But for this to lead to

53:38

durable change, I think

53:40

organizing is an

53:42

important requirement.

53:44

And I don't think any episode like this would be,

53:46

like, the end and how we get just

53:48

to what we want. Look at seventeen

53:50

eighty nine French revolutions being

53:54

so like, air shattering and tiering points in

53:56

modern history, but that was not the end of it

53:58

then. You had eighteen thirty. You had eighteen

53:59

forty have they can forty eight

54:02

eight. it was a contentious episode that changed a

54:04

lot of things in France. And even

54:06

though it led to a regime change, that was

54:08

not the only regime

54:10

change that happen in

54:12

France. So uncertainty is

54:14

just the essential part of

54:16

this type of episode. We we don't

54:18

know. I mean, if we were standing in the middle of nineteen seventy eight,

54:21

seventy nine revolution, we wouldn't know where that would

54:23

be going. And it went somewhere no

54:26

one had imagine, even the leaders of the Islamic Republic

54:28

didn't think they are going to be

54:30

leaders of the new political regime. So

54:32

I'm not going to, like, make a

54:34

prediction of where this is

54:36

going. What we can see, what kind

54:38

of political, social forces

54:40

are emerging? What kind of coalitions

54:43

can come together and what are the weaknesses

54:46

and strength of different parts of

54:48

Thoughts world. So, Ali, before

54:50

I let you go though, know you

54:52

grew up in Iran and that this probably means

54:54

a lot to you. Do you just wanna add

54:56

personal note of how you

54:58

felt about these protests

55:02

and

55:02

just the

55:03

excitement maybe of watching

55:05

these develop? Yeah. I

55:07

mean, you ask a personal question, so

55:09

I give you personal answer. before

55:12

this, I didn't know what is the

55:14

future of Iran. So I prepared

55:16

myself not

55:16

to ever go back and die

55:18

in exile. So

55:19

still a possibility. I'm prepared for

55:21

it. I think many other

55:23

Iran have thought about

55:25

this. Since

55:26

this started, I became hopeful that maybe I could

55:28

go back one day. That

55:30

changes every day as I watch

55:34

the news about how it unfolds. I still have

55:36

hope. I have concerns also

55:39

as I expressed through

55:41

in this interview. And, yes,

55:44

it's been exciting and it's

55:46

been overwhelming. It's exciting

55:48

to see people arising, to see

55:50

the amount of bravery on the streets.

55:52

How does, like, young women and men do

55:54

go stand up against the armored

55:57

police with their hands?

55:59

It's been inspiring.

56:01

And it's been tragic to also

56:03

observe the violence to

56:06

watch how people get

56:08

beaten up, people

56:10

get shots. Even sometimes harder

56:11

than that is the videos that some

56:13

of these people take

56:16

of someone getting beats

56:18

and up. and you see

56:20

the reaction of or you hear the

56:22

reaction of the person who's recording

56:24

that. So it's like

56:26

different levels of mediation of how people in the

56:28

streets are reacting think how I'm here

56:30

sitting in the reacting.

56:32

And again, I think for me

56:34

and many of the other people on

56:36

this side of the world, we've been also asking

56:38

ourselves, what can I do to help

56:40

this movement? And I

56:42

think a lot of us have been restless

56:46

have been just trying to find out what to

56:48

do.

56:48

And in

56:50

a way, I think, we've been

56:52

also living a double life here.

56:55

trying to just do

56:57

our regular jobs and

56:59

be present in the workplace, in

57:01

the community, and be normal,

57:03

while you are also experiencing

57:07

a tragedy or also

57:09

what is described as

57:12

ticket history. unfold. Because on every single day, just so

57:14

much happens. And Paths news

57:16

that happens, and then their reactions,

57:18

and it's

57:20

very emotional. So it's

57:22

been a struggle to also

57:24

stay grounded, not get

57:27

carried away because for me personally to be able to present

57:29

a sound analysis, I also need to

57:32

stay grounded and not get

57:34

too thick to play emotion.

57:36

But it's an emotional process. It's

57:38

just part of it. And now with

57:40

intranets, we have this

57:42

phenomenon of being here

57:44

and not there, but also not being here

57:46

because you're waiting for

57:48

what's happened today because we also wake

57:50

up later So by the time we wake up, a lot has happened in So

57:52

every day, I'm sure in Iranian, in the US

57:54

or in Europe, they just wake up checking

57:57

Justin the news. what

57:59

happened today, like, where protests broke out,

57:59

someone got shot, beat, and

58:02

all. Yeah. It's been

58:03

a lot

58:04

it's been a lot Thank you so

58:06

much for taking

58:07

the time to talk to me,

58:09

Ali. Thank you so much for joining

58:11

me. Thank you

58:12

very much for having.