0:03

Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from The

0:05

Economist. I'm your host, Ora

0:08

Ogunbiyi. Every weekday

0:10

we provide a fresh perspective on the events

0:13

shaping your world. The

0:17

region of Nagorno-Karabakh is

0:20

on the brink of a humanitarian crisis.

0:22

The only roads in are sealed and

0:25

an ever-tightening blockade threatens

0:27

many with starvation. Why are

0:29

Armenia and Azerbaijan unable to reach

0:31

an agreement? And

0:35

Douglas Lennart transformed how

0:37

we think about computers. We

0:40

pay tribute to the mathematician whose life's

0:42

work was to make computers more human

0:45

and put some common sense into AI.

0:55

But first, we have some news of

0:58

our own to bring you.

1:04

Podcasting may seem like the new kid on the block.

1:07

For us, it's something of an old

1:09

timer. The Economist

1:11

began podcasting in 2006. Our

1:15

first offering was Money Talks, which

1:18

still leads the field when it comes to business

1:20

and finance reporting. It won gold

1:22

at the most recent British podcast

1:24

awards. The judges said

1:26

an outstanding production that grips

1:28

and informs listeners with storytelling. The

1:31

winner is

1:32

Money Talks. Other

1:34

shows have built on its success, among

1:36

them Babbage, which was

1:39

reporting on advances in AI well before

1:41

the frenzy of excitement around chat GPT.

1:44

I'm going to need your help to write an opening

1:47

for this week's Babbage. Our program is on foundation

1:50

models, a type of artificial intelligence.

1:53

I'm sure I can help, Alec. What

1:55

data should I work with? Good question.

1:57

How about we pull together... In 2019... we

2:00

step things up with our first daily

2:02

show. This one, The

2:05

Intelligence. Right

2:07

where you are, what is the feeling on the street? What

2:09

is the mood on the streets right now in Kiev? The

2:11

mood on the streets is bewilderment.

2:14

Right up to the very last minute, people didn't

2:16

believe this was going to happen. Now that it

2:18

has happened, Kiev has become a sort of city

2:20

of huddles. On the one hand, people

2:23

huddling in groups around... We've since branched

2:25

out into the blockbuster series. The

2:28

Prince, our investigation into the

2:30

mysterious life of Xi Jinping, was

2:32

a hit worldwide.

2:34

It's a Machiavellian story

2:36

of power. How it's won, how

2:38

it's wielded, and how far you can

2:41

fall when it's taken away. In

2:44

China, where information about their leader

2:46

is tightly controlled, independent-minded

2:49

listeners translated the show into Mandarin. And

2:52

The Prince was followed by Drum Tower, a weekly

2:55

dive into what's going on in China. Wow,

2:58

a Chinese blogger talking about IVF. That's pretty unusual for this country.

3:01

And are they getting a lot of views?

3:03

Yeah, I mean, so Ye Hayang is incredibly

3:05

popular. I mean, she has 724 million followers.

3:08

So there have been big changes at Economist

3:11

podcasts over the years.

3:13

And now, another one

3:15

is coming.

3:17

From next month, The Economist will

3:19

be rolling out a new podcast service.

3:22

Because Animants and Beddows is The Economist's editor-in-chief.

3:26

Listers will be able to sign up for

3:28

exclusive access to all our podcasts,

3:31

including a number that we are creating

3:33

specifically for this podcast service. It's

3:36

going to be called Economist Podcast Plus. And

3:38

if you sign up now, the monthly cost

3:41

is less than the price of a cup of coffee. Well,

3:43

that sounds like a great and punchy pitch.

3:46

But to get things straight, we're now

3:48

asking people to pay for our podcasts,

3:50

or at least some of them.

3:52

That's right. Everyone will still

3:54

be able to listen to quite a lot of our podcasts

3:56

for free. The weekday episodes of

3:58

The Intelligence, what you're looking for, listening to right now

4:01

will still remain free. But starting

4:03

next month, if you want to listen to the whole array

4:06

of our podcasts every week, including

4:08

our specialist shows like Money Talks or Drum Tower

4:11

or our special series, which we're going to be

4:13

creating a number of new ones, you

4:15

will have to have a subscription. If

4:17

you already have an economist subscription, nothing

4:20

will change. You'll simply have to sign up. You don't

4:22

have to pay any extra. If you're enjoying

4:24

the full range of our journalism, thank you.

4:26

You are the people who enable us to do what we

4:29

do. But if you don't have a subscription,

4:31

if you've been listening to our podcasts and enjoying

4:33

them for free, then we're going to ask you

4:36

to pay a small amount to enjoy

4:38

the complete set of our podcasts. And

4:40

the reason we're talking about it now, a month

4:42

ahead of when we start all this, is

4:45

that if you sign up now, you can get

4:47

Economist Podcast Plus at a special

4:49

launch price

4:49

of 24.50 for the year. That's

4:52

24 euros or 24 dollars

4:55

or 24 pounds.

4:56

And that works

4:57

out at just 2 dollars or pounds

4:59

or euros a month. And for that,

5:02

just to be clear, you don't just get the whole range

5:04

of podcasts that we have now, but a host

5:06

of extras, including some brand new

5:08

shows. So, we'll come back to those

5:10

extras in a bit. But

5:12

first, why have you decided to do this?

5:15

What's behind that change?

5:17

In truth, it's not such a big departure for the economist.

5:19

We've always relied on subscribers

5:22

to fund our distinctive brand of independent

5:25

journalism. And we believe that a podcast

5:27

subscription is the best

5:28

way of giving our listeners the chance

5:30

to support our work and frankly, to ensure

5:33

that we can fund the kind of ambitious plans

5:35

we have for our podcasts in the future.

5:38

Our basic mission is to provide high

5:40

quality journalism for subscribers around

5:43

the world and to make that available at a fair

5:45

price. Since podcasting

5:48

is becoming an ever more central part of our

5:50

journalism, the logical result is

5:52

that we apply the same business approach to podcasting

5:55

as we do to the rest of our journalism.

5:57

Now, Zanny, paying for podcasts is not easy.

6:00

yet the standard. Are you worried

6:02

that because so much content is free that

6:04

people might go elsewhere? There's

6:06

always a risk, Ory, in being early

6:08

movers in any new business decision.

6:11

But I'm pretty confident that

6:14

the quality of our podcast journalism, the

6:16

quality of what you and your colleagues do,

6:18

is so good that many

6:20

of our subscribers will understand

6:22

that we need to charge a fair price

6:24

for this kind of journalism and will sign up.

6:27

If you look at what's happened to our podcast audience,

6:30

it's doubled in the last three years. We have more than 5

6:32

million monthly listeners in our first

6:34

growing platform. It's an incredibly important part

6:37

of our journalism. And the numbers clearly show

6:39

that people value your work

6:41

and the work of your colleagues. And frankly, rightly

6:43

so. It's fantastic. And it's been

6:45

a bit anomalous in the news

6:48

business recently podcasting because it is still

6:51

essentially advertising based. But

6:53

just as we have from the very beginning

6:55

relied on subscribers to fund our

6:58

written journalism, so we're very

7:00

confident that the podcast market will move

7:02

in the same direction. And that being an

7:04

early mover here simply means

7:06

that podcasting becomes less of an anomaly

7:08

for the economists than it was before. We

7:11

think our podcasts are worth paying for. We

7:13

hope that you listeners will agree. And frankly,

7:17

it's outstanding value. $2 or

7:20

two pounds a month, as I said, is less

7:22

than the price of a cup of coffee. So give

7:24

us a sense of what our listeners can look forward

7:27

to. That's the bit that I'm excited about.

7:29

There's a brilliant new series coming in October

7:31

called Boss Class, which has been put together

7:33

by Andrew Palmer, who writes our Bartleby

7:35

column on management, which is the most

7:37

popular column that we have. The

7:40

economist, he's a fantastic writer. He's

7:42

been talking to a large

7:44

number of business leaders about

7:46

how to be a good manager. I can't wait to listen.

7:49

I might learn something. We're also going

7:51

to have a number of new series

7:54

of the sort of ambitious scale that listeners

7:56

will remember. We had The Prince last year.

7:58

Fantastic series. on Xi Jinping, narrated

8:01

by Su Lin Wong. We had Arkady

8:03

Ostrovsky, our Russia editors, superb

8:06

next year in Moscow. And in addition to

8:08

that, the other show that I'm very excited

8:10

about is a new Saturday show called

8:12

The Weekend Intelligence. And we

8:14

think of this as the audio version

8:17

of an immersive weekend read. There'll

8:20

be long form reporting and interviews that showcase

8:22

the best of economist journalism and

8:24

that give our reporters a chance to show off the depth

8:26

of their knowledge. I've just returned from Kiev,

8:29

as you'll know, if you heard Monday's show. And

8:31

this new weekend show, spoiler alert,

8:34

will contain much more reporting that

8:36

Arkady and I were working on in Ukraine. There's

8:39

going to be lots of long form reporting, interviews.

8:42

So all told, it's everything

8:44

we've now got,

8:45

plus quite a lot more at a very fair

8:47

price.

8:48

So for all the listeners who

8:50

are now incredibly eager to find

8:52

out what's in Economist Podcast Plus, how can they

8:54

do this? So if you are an

8:56

existing subscriber of The Economist, then

8:59

you automatically get access. You're going to get an

9:01

email update explaining how to do that. We've

9:03

published a list of frequently asked questions

9:05

in the show notes for this podcast. That

9:08

should be reasonably easy. To sign

9:10

up for the podcast only subscription, go to

9:12

economist.com forward slash podcast

9:15

plus or again, look at our show notes

9:17

for more information and a list of frequently

9:19

asked questions. If you sign up now,

9:22

you get a special introductory offer, which,

9:24

as I've said, works out as just a couple

9:26

of dollars or pounds a month or less

9:29

than the price of a good cup of coffee.

9:30

Zannie, thank you so much

9:32

for coming on the show. You are very welcome.

9:46

In 2020,

9:49

a long simmering conflict reached

9:51

boiling point in Nagorno-Karabakh,

9:54

a region that has been a source of tension

9:56

between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia

9:59

for nearly three decades. Over

10:06

six weeks of open warfare between the two

10:08

nations, thousands were

10:10

killed. Then

10:13

there was a ceasefire.

10:16

There were hopes that it would hold up, but

10:19

a year ago this week, violent

10:21

clashes broke out yet again.

10:24

We are deeply concerned about continued

10:27

attacks along the Armenian-Bajjan border.

10:30

We are particularly disturbed

10:32

by continued reports of civilians being

10:34

harmed inside the Armenian border.

10:36

Now, in the midst

10:38

of yet another detente, an

10:40

ever-tightening blockade is pushing the

10:42

mountainous enclave to the point of starvation.

10:47

This week, in a one-off agreement,

10:49

a single truck's worth of food entered

10:52

the region, the first since June

10:54

15th. A

10:56

deal for more remains elusive,

10:59

and as Azerbaijan pushes for ultimate

11:01

control of the region, a

11:03

humanitarian disaster is

11:05

unfolding. So

11:07

about nine months ago, Azerbaijani protesters who were

11:11

backed by the Azerbaijani government launched

11:13

a de facto blockade of what's

11:16

called the Laxin Corridor, which is the only

11:18

road leading from this territory

11:20

of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia

11:23

and therefore to the outside world. Joshua

11:27

Kuchera writes for The Economist,

11:30

At the time, shipments of food and

11:32

fuel were curtailed, but still

11:34

enough got through to keep the situation from

11:36

getting too dire. Step by step,

11:38

the Azerbaijanis have tightened the screws

11:41

on this blockade. In April,

11:43

they installed an official border checkpoint

11:45

on that Laxin road, and then

11:47

in mid-June, they shut it down

11:49

completely, and since then virtually

11:51

nothing has gotten through. So the situation

11:54

has become quite dire.

11:56

So why is Azerbaijan doing

11:58

this? How is it in their

11:59

interest for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh

12:02

to stop. So the

12:04

population right now of Karabakh is ethnically

12:07

Armenian. This is part of what

12:09

was in the Soviet Union, an autonomous oblast,

12:12

part of the Azerbaijan Soviet

12:15

Republic that was at the time a majority

12:18

ethnic Armenian. In the late 80s

12:20

and early 90s, as the Soviet

12:22

Union was collapsing, there was a war

12:24

between ethnic Armenian forces and

12:26

Azerbaijanis. Armenians won that.

12:29

As a result, they took control of Karabakh

12:32

and they also took control of seven

12:34

territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh,

12:37

which were populated mostly by

12:39

ethnic Azerbaijanis. As a result,

12:41

about 600 ethnic Azerbaijanis

12:44

were ethnically cleansed from that territory.

12:47

In 2020, there was a second war. Azerbaijan

12:51

reversed many of those losses. They gained control

12:53

of all those seven territories, plus part of

12:55

Nagorno-Karabakh itself. Now

12:58

it has surrounded Karabakh completely

13:01

and Azerbaijan is pushing to take

13:03

full control over Karabakh

13:06

itself and that Armenian population. And

13:09

this blockade is effectively

13:11

a hard bargaining tool in

13:13

order to get the Armenians

13:15

to give up control and

13:18

cede control to the Azerbaijani government.

13:21

And so what's standing in the way of that

13:23

agreement?

13:24

So diplomatic negotiations have been going on

13:27

between Armenians and Azerbaijanis about

13:29

a final resolution to the conflict. And

13:32

Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan,

13:34

has signaled that he's willing to

13:36

cede control of Karabakh back

13:39

to the Azerbaijanis. But

13:41

the Armenians want, in exchange for that,

13:43

some kind of guarantee that the

13:45

rights and security of the ethnic population

13:48

of Nagorno-Karabakh will be respected under Azerbaijani

13:51

rule. The Azerbaijani government has

13:53

been claiming that they want to reintegrate

13:55

the Armenian population back into Azerbaijan

13:58

and that doing so, the Armenians have all

14:00

the same rights as Azerbaijan's citizens, Armenians

14:03

don't trust them on that. This is a

14:05

crux of the political disagreement

14:07

now. If one were trying to give

14:10

Azerbaijan the benefit of the doubt about

14:12

their sincerity before this blockade, I

14:15

think that as the blockade has continued

14:17

and gotten more harsh, it's becoming more and

14:19

more difficult to believe that this is anything other

14:21

than an attempt to force out

14:24

the Armenian population by making

14:26

life unbearable for them. This has

14:29

really poisoned the diplomatic negotiations

14:31

that have been going on between the two sides, and

14:34

it's made the Armenians unwilling

14:36

to cede control of this territory because

14:38

they believe that the Azerbaijanis are

14:41

just going to force them to leave.

14:44

So give us a bit more detail of just

14:46

how dire things are looking in the region.

14:48

So since the blockade has become

14:50

virtually total over the last two or three

14:52

months, virtually no food, no

14:55

fuel, no medicine has gotten

14:57

in. Bread is rationed to half

15:00

a loaf per person per day. Grocery

15:02

stores are closed. Critical

15:05

medicines have run out. Fuel

15:07

has become rationed very heavily.

15:09

Public transportation was shut down some time

15:12

ago. There are reports of patients

15:14

who are very ill and they need to get to the

15:16

doctor, but A, there's no gas

15:19

in their car to get them there, and B, there's

15:21

not any medication at the hospital

15:24

even if they were to get there. Doctors

15:26

are reporting deaths and sicknesses

15:28

because of malnutrition. People themselves

15:31

cannot get in and out, and so you have families

15:33

separated. The situation is really

15:35

getting quite dire. So

15:37

what's

15:37

the way forward?

15:39

So as this has been going on, Azerbaijan

15:41

has been offering to open up a

15:43

different road into Karabakh. This one from Azerbaijan

15:46

Proper. They're arguing that since Karabakh

15:49

is internationally recognized as Azerbaijan

15:51

territory, that they should get all of

15:53

their necessary goods from Azerbaijan rather

15:55

than from Armenia. The Karabakh Armenians

15:58

have been refusing. seeing this offer

16:01

as a kind of Trojan horse that

16:03

would eventually lead to Azerbaijan

16:05

gaining political control over the

16:07

territory. So they've even gone so far

16:09

as to erect blockades of their own on

16:11

that road in order to prevent any Azerbaijani

16:14

traffic or goods getting in. This

16:17

is the impasse we're at now. International

16:19

mediators, including both the EU and

16:22

Russia, have been trying to broker

16:24

some kind of deal that would involve both roads being

16:26

opened. There's disputes over the details,

16:29

in particular the sequencing. Azerbaijanis

16:31

want their road to open first. Armenians,

16:34

however, don't trust them and they believe that if they do

16:36

it like that, then Azerbaijan will renege on

16:38

their part of the deal. So they want both roads

16:40

to be open simultaneously. There were reports

16:43

this weekend that a deal had been reached, but

16:45

then it quickly broke down and it seems like

16:47

we're back at the same impasse now.

16:49

And all

16:51

the while, the people of Nagorno-Karabakhstov,

16:55

what happens next?

16:57

It's difficult to know precisely what's going

16:59

on inside because since 2020, no

17:02

independent journalists, no foreigners have been able

17:05

to get into Karabakh at all. There

17:07

are indications of a kind of power

17:09

struggle inside Nagorno-Karabakh.

17:12

There's internal disputes among the

17:14

political elite of Nagorno-Karabakh

17:16

about how to deal with this blockade.

17:19

Some people are advocating accepting

17:21

the Azerbaijani aid. Some people are against

17:23

it. The de facto president

17:25

of the territory just stepped down and was

17:28

replaced over the weekend. So I

17:30

think, however, this road situation

17:32

is resolved in the bigger picture.

17:34

I think what the result of all of this is going

17:36

to be is that whatever hope

17:39

there might have been that the ethnic

17:41

Armenian population of Karabakh could

17:43

live safely and securely with

17:45

their rights respected under

17:47

the Azerbaijan flag as part of Azerbaijan,

17:50

that hope is mostly gone.

17:53

Joshua, thank you so much for your time. Thanks

17:55

for having me.

18:12

One day when Douglas Lennison, his wife Mary,

18:15

were driving along the road, a trash

18:17

truck

18:18

in front of them started to shed its load.

18:20

Anne Rowe is

18:22

the Economist's obituary's editor. Storage

18:25

bags were bouncing all over the road,

18:28

and he had to decide instantly whether

18:30

to swerve into another lane, which he couldn't

18:32

as there were cars all round him, or drive

18:34

over the bags. And then

18:36

he thought, well, I won't go over the household bags

18:39

because they've probably got sharp stuff

18:41

thrown away in them. If that's a restaurant

18:43

bag, I'll go over that because it will only

18:46

have

18:46

styrofoam cups and food waste.

18:51

So he drove over the restaurant

18:53

bag and the car survived. And

18:58

he reflected how long had it taken

19:00

him to make all those decisions, probably

19:02

a

19:03

few seconds.

19:04

How long would a computer take? Well,

19:08

much too long in any case, because

19:10

the problem with computers was that they

19:13

simply had no understanding

19:15

of how the world worked. For

19:17

four decades, he had been trying

19:19

to train computers to

19:22

think in a more human way. He

19:24

had devised a system called PSYCH

19:27

in which he was handwriting and feeding

19:29

into the system rules of

19:32

thinking and rules about the world.

19:36

In the end, he had 25 million

19:39

such rules,

19:39

but

19:41

he had to begin with the simplest propositions,

19:44

such as a cat has four

19:46

legs, that is, if you leave

19:48

uncovered things out in the rain, they will

19:50

get wet. If you turn

19:53

the coffee cup upside down, the coffee in it

19:55

will fall out. All

19:57

these little rules and pieces

19:59

of paper. of information about the world which he

20:02

as a human being had been learning

20:05

unconsciously almost since he was

20:07

tiny and now had to

20:09

somehow be fed into

20:11

a machine.

20:17

The main problem he found was

20:20

disambiguation.

20:21

It

20:24

was pronounced

20:25

as in a sentence like, Tom

20:27

was mad because Joe stole his lunch.

20:30

Or who does the his refer to?

20:33

Humans just know who hates Tom, but

20:35

a computer doesn't know that.

20:37

So you have to go back right to the

20:39

beginning of the construction of the sentence and make

20:41

sure everything is crystal clear. So

20:44

this is what his work consisted of year

20:46

in and year out.

20:50

It was a very very slow process.

20:54

In 1984 when he was

20:56

first taken on as chief scientist

20:58

when he'd come down from Stanford, he

21:01

gathered together the six cleverest people

21:03

he knew and he asked them how long they thought

21:05

it would take to train a computer

21:08

to think this way. And

21:10

to his surprise they all more or less agreed

21:12

that it would need a million rules

21:14

and that it would probably take a hundred

21:17

person years to achieve. It

21:21

took him more than 2000 person

21:23

years to get to his 25 million

21:25

rules and still counting on

21:27

both of them. And while he

21:29

was slowly going on, a

21:32

different way of doing AI was coming

21:34

into the ascendant and this was machine

21:36

learning by which vast

21:39

troves of data were presented

21:41

to computers and they were encouraged to find

21:44

their own rules and patterns in it.

21:48

And these large language models

21:51

soon became a direct rival to his

21:53

own system which he'd called psych.

21:57

So he would puzzle how he

21:59

was going to do it. to survive

22:01

in this world in which large

22:03

language models were making all the running

22:06

and he was plodding on. He

22:09

didn't abandon his project, he never

22:12

thought of doing that. He

22:14

knew he was in it for the long haul and he didn't

22:17

care that he was not going

22:19

to conferences or playing the academic game,

22:21

he was keeping a very low profile in

22:23

a tiny little office off a highway

22:25

in Austin, Texas. But

22:28

he was still determined to

22:31

get his system going and he thought

22:33

that the ideal thing to

22:35

do would be to use both

22:38

large language models, machine learning

22:41

and his psych system so that you got

22:43

the speed of the machine

22:45

learning together with the

22:48

subtlety of his

22:50

own system. And

22:52

he felt this would give him an AI which

22:54

was fantastically ubiquitous

22:57

and useful to everybody. This

23:00

is what had intrigued him about it from the very

23:02

beginning. He'd got hooked

23:03

first of all as a schoolboy on the novels

23:05

of Isaac Asimov

23:07

and then he'd gone to Stanford to

23:09

study maths and physics but had found

23:12

that at the level he took them they'd

23:14

got very abstracts and divorce from physical

23:16

reality. He wanted to study

23:19

something that was going to make a real difference to the

23:21

world and that turned out to be AI.

23:26

He dreamed of a world in which AI

23:29

was helping to make human beings smarter

23:33

and they had them as a sort of amplifier

23:35

to all their mental processes. He

23:38

also thought they would make humans more

23:40

creative and

23:42

he found his work nothing but joy because

23:44

with every rule he fed into a computer.

23:47

He had actually improved

23:50

the whole system of AI. He had

23:53

created a being

23:55

almost that did not need

23:57

to be recreated that could only be improved

23:59

as he did. went on adding to it. But

24:03

was his system actually intelligent?

24:06

It could do a lot of things. He found that psych

24:08

could offer pros and cons

24:10

to an argument. It

24:14

knew about human emotions and how they influenced

24:16

actions.

24:18

It could argue in a real world

24:21

context or in other contexts. It

24:23

had that power to do so. But

24:26

its main interest to him was

24:29

not whether it was intelligent in itself, but

24:31

whether it would add to the intelligence of humans.

24:34

And he felt that it would do so

24:36

to such a degree that our descendants

24:39

would look back at all the pre-AI

24:42

generations and think that they were like

24:44

cavemen, not really quite

24:46

human.

24:49

Psych asked him one day, am

24:52

I a person?

24:54

But rather sadly he had to say no.

25:03

Anne Rowe on Douglas Lennon

25:05

who has died aged 72. For

25:09

the next few weeks our sister

25:11

podcast Babbage is uncovering

25:14

the future of artificial intelligence.

25:16

In the most recent episode my colleague

25:19

Alok Jha asked leading researcher

25:21

Mr. Farsulayman whether society

25:23

should be worried about the new age of AI.

25:27

Listen to Babbage wherever you found this

25:29

and wherever machines learn supervised

25:32

and unsupervised.

25:46

That's all for this episode of the intelligence.

25:49

As you heard we are launching a new

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Bye.