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0:09

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no

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you

0:37

the is august eleventh twenty twenty two

0:39

and my guest is philosopher will mccaskill

0:42

of oxford university he was

0:44

first iran com talking twenty

0:46

fifteen talking about effective altruism

0:49

and his book doing good better his

0:51

latest book and our topic for today

0:54

is what we owe the future will

0:56

welcome se sont en

0:58

the great to prevent your book opens with a rather

1:02

fascinating experiment

1:05

that you to from my georgia raise

1:07

the final of human experience

1:10

and it goes up and read this sounds this

1:12

the opening of your book goes like this imagine

1:15

, in order birth to the lines of

1:17

every human being who was ever lived your

1:19

first life begins about three hundred thousand

1:21

years ago in africa after living

1:23

that life and dying you travel back in time and

1:26

reincarnate and second ever person born

1:28

slightly later than the first one

1:30

set second person dies you're reincarnated

1:32

as the third person under forth and so on

1:34

one hundred billion lives later

1:37

you become the youngest person alive today your life

1:40

this of all these lifetimes lives consecutively

1:43

your wife's last for almost four trillion

1:46

years in total aside

1:48

meaning

1:49

they've been about four trillion years of human

1:51

life on earth up till now

1:54

for tenth of that time you're a hunter gatherer

1:56

and for sixty percent your and agriculturalists

1:59

spent and full twenty percent of your life raising

2:01

children a further twenty percent farming

2:03

and almost two percent taking part in religious rituals

2:06

for over one percent of your life your afflicted

2:08

with malaria or smallpox spend

2:10

one point five billion years having sex

2:13

and two hundred and fifty million giving birth he

2:15

drink forty four trillion cups of

2:17

coffee you , first

2:19

hand just how unusual the modern era is

2:22

because of dramatic population growth

2:24

of full third of your wife comes after

2:27

a d twelve hundred and a quarter

2:29

after seventeen fifty at that

2:31

point technology and society begin to change

2:33

far faster than ever before you

2:36

invent steam engines factories and electricity

2:38

elixir of revolutions in science

2:40

the most deadly worse in history and

2:42

dramatic environmental destruction each

2:45

slice last longer and you enjoyed luxuries

2:48

you could dot sample even in your past lives

2:50

as kings and queens he

2:52

spend one hundred and fifty years and space

2:54

and one week walking on the moon fifteen

2:57

percent of your experience is of people

2:59

alive today stature life

3:02

so far from the birth of homo sapiens

3:04

until the presence but now imagine

3:06

that you live all future lives to your

3:09

life we hope would be just beginning even

3:11

if humanity only will last only

3:13

as long as the typical male ian

3:15

species my million years

3:18

and if that the world population fast with them

3:20

it's current size ninety nine

3:23

point five percent of your life she'll

3:25

be ahead of you if you knew your

3:27

way to live all these utilize what would you hope

3:29

we do in the presence how much carbon

3:31

monoxide would you want us to emit

3:33

into the atmosphere how much would you want us

3:35

to invest in research and education

3:38

careful , you want us to be with

3:40

new technologies that could destroy

3:43

are permanently to real your future

3:45

how much attention would you want us to give to the impact

3:48

of today's actions on the long term

3:50

i present this thought experiment because morality

3:53

and central part is about putting ourselves

3:56

putting other says and treating

3:58

their interests as we do our own when

4:00

we do this at a full scale of human history

4:02

the future almost everyone

4:04

lives and were almost all potential for joy

4:07

misery lies comes to the for

4:10

this , is about long term islam

4:13

the idea that positively influencing the

4:15

long term future is a key

4:17

moral parody of our time you're

4:20

dead end of quote to want to add neeson

4:24

no thank you for reading

4:26

have it was lovely to be able to hear

4:28

that and

4:30

yeah i mean i think that can get a sensor

4:33

the core issues which

4:35

but will later on in the burqa state is just the

4:37

ideas that she's people count

4:39

my way they could be a

4:41

losses and

4:42

and we can really make a difference to their

4:44

lights at first question is

4:47

hoping people today does help

4:49

people tomorrow in many ways so

4:51

it many ways we already

4:53

take account of the people

4:56

who come after us

4:57

yeah

5:00

which do so when

5:03

we innovate and or build

5:05

better institutions ah

5:07

or have a better you know

5:10

more model culture

5:12

i'm all of those things to benefit

5:15

people to ah it

5:17

would be surprising though is that was

5:20

the best way

5:22

holding people you know the things we all that

5:24

to do

5:25

in particular because there's things first

5:28

that negatively impact

5:30

well as well

5:32

though

5:33

most famously now marginal c

5:35

o two innocence that's i also

5:37

think so and other forms of technology

5:40

so advances in biotechnology

5:42

i think pose great risks for

5:45

the

5:46

i'm and for the future

5:48

or so i think we should be

5:50

attending to what we do today

5:52

what if things are really helpful much just sort

5:54

of hasn't bosses the future when the things

5:56

that actually like

6:01

the longer term perspective i think the hard question

6:03

i think most would agree that people

6:06

the future matter the questions how much and

6:09

you're arguing i i think that

6:12

we don't take account enough of

6:14

the future because they'll be so many people

6:18

and muslims a catastrophe though be so many people

6:21

and they will live for presumably

6:23

a very long time so i

6:25

think you should you're sick you're arguing that

6:28

morally they count

6:30

for more than we count because

6:32

they're more numerous so a sacrifice

6:35

on our part that we

6:37

it leads to a benefit in the future

6:39

should , morally demanded

6:42

of us because so many more

6:44

people will benefit or harm today today

6:47

burrow much utilitarian i utilitarian in

6:49

the spoke am i right

6:52

yeah i'll clarify my view a little bit

6:55

armed with us close expects for not

6:57

solicit

6:58

though an adult

7:00

for have the same model was

7:02

a little scissors as people in the process

7:05

i do think there are additional

7:07

reasons

7:08

that

7:09

a lot

7:10

it will be important but about relationships

7:13

we have with equal nothing so

7:15

you know a thing i have a different sort of fun

7:17

as model to seize and moral reasons

7:19

that respects my mom in that aspect

7:22

to someone who has never met on the other

7:24

side of the wells

7:25

that being says are we also

7:27

have a lot of the moral

7:29

reasons respect to that person on the other side of the world's

7:32

i can't willfully harm them if

7:34

it's easy for me to make their lives must also

7:37

am i think it's more important me to do that

7:40

i also think you're complete if you're completely right

7:44

that i think the numbers really matter

7:47

know if i can the

7:49

don't save one life as a satellite

7:51

smugly important to save the tenth and that's

7:53

again because all people can equally so

7:55

the excess of ten are just more important

7:58

than your tests have one

8:00

the tricky you didn't mention sacrifice

8:02

and here is just a tricky question of

8:04

kind of how much does modality required of one

8:07

the standard utilitarian answer is

8:09

but his ex mahout is extraordinarily

8:12

demanding i

8:14

can sacrifice myself in

8:16

order to save the life of someone

8:18

who i think we'll do a little bit more

8:20

goods a nice or in

8:22

fact would even be a little bit that

8:26

little bit happier than me as you just have more

8:28

well being that i mostly the quiet to do that

8:33

like we can most extreme view

8:35

that one can have in terms of model demanding

8:37

us and it's not have you

8:39

the i wanted to send in the spec the

8:43

moment we're like so so

8:45

far away from that margin were

8:47

in terms of effort that we spend really

8:50

trying to think that the long term impacts

8:52

of ah ah the

8:55

news i find opposed to be explicitly

8:57

times posted the guides long term future how

9:00

much about as well gee how much well gdp

9:02

is that i dunno point one percent together

9:04

one percent or something is very low

9:06

go on the current margins

9:09

i'm like it would get a wonderful out the over

9:11

the moon and

9:13

, fantasize surprise

9:16

and having to answer the question has if

9:18

we did have to sacrifice ninety to

9:20

sacrifice of

9:22

the world's resources would that be

9:24

the right thing to do with the democrats do

9:27

you're saying if if we had to sacrifice one

9:29

percent

9:30

to

9:32

do something good for the future that would be that's a relatively

9:34

easy case to make in your room because of

9:36

that magnitude civil

9:39

exactly and i think don't need to have

9:41

anything nearly as

9:44

nearly as extreme as utilitarianism to

9:46

justify that view i think that should be they want

9:48

a very wide variety of marvel's

9:50

you can let me take me take of but the

9:52

opposing the which

9:54

what's your

9:57

which is the phone those

9:59

the my future they're gonna

10:02

be so much richer than us

10:04

the

10:05

they should be sacrificed for us i mean we're

10:07

going to has we're in dowling

10:09

them with a platform a base

10:11

level of wellbeing and intellectual

10:14

our , that's going to grow over time

10:17

so hundred thousand years

10:19

from now those folks are

10:21

gonna live such extraordinary financial

10:24

wise i'm gonna debate what

10:26

kind of i , a real

10:28

happiness they might have them get to that later

10:30

you do without the book but but going to be

10:32

wildly more material

10:35

you better off than us at

10:37

current trends unless we mess

10:39

up and was somebody messes up in the next

10:41

hundred thousand years so shouldn't

10:44

mostly sacrifice anything to them

10:47

i'm a for question and

10:49

i think to answers so the

10:52

first is that

10:53

the

10:54

unlike the kind of assumption that

10:56

normally naughty for in economics

10:59

the

11:00

i don't think we could be second the people in the

11:02

future

11:03

will be much better than us to take the you're twenty

11:05

three hundred i would say it's like

11:07

eighty percent of events of athena and

11:10

maybe like a lot better

11:12

the

11:13

they didn't and a compound technological progress

11:16

am however twenty percent

11:18

chance but actually about the worst austin

11:20

us i don't exercise at all

11:22

i think that could be widespread

11:25

to pass the season result as i'm new technology

11:28

for nuclear war ah

11:30

the case they make some

11:32

and bioethics engineered bio weapons

11:35

or even just called stagnation and then decays

11:37

society like kind of global full of the roman

11:40

empire all those things that is

11:42

on my mind the

11:44

second thing is that this argument that

11:46

future people will be a better than those today

11:49

that only applies to what

11:51

congress com marginal homs

11:53

so if so if myself a little further in

11:56

order to make someone in the future

11:58

a little that bachelor again i completely

12:00

agree that that's what's going on then

12:04

the financial benefit the future

12:06

matters much less now

12:08

take something doesn't like

12:11

that lesson in the future enslaved

12:14

it really doesn't matter who had

12:17

ah were when i

12:19

like how of it's they were before happens

12:21

in you couldn't just go experiment if the now and slaves

12:24

does not like a marginal hall and myself financial

12:26

harm it something quite different the

12:28

person dies altogether the

12:32

the war more

12:35

so something that lasers more philosophical

12:37

issues as if he never come into existence

12:39

in the first place the

12:42

in general i i'm not looking at

12:44

these like marginal differences in

12:46

how well off we are today's us as in the future

12:49

instead i'm looking at either

12:52

just my catastrophic events that

12:54

would make the world much worse off the much for

12:57

what changes to bounties where

12:59

perhaps may have much greater resources

13:02

than we do better using them for bad ends

13:04

that using them sir isn't

13:07

place or i'm inflicts

13:10

enormous amounts of suffering those

13:12

things like

13:14

the idea lobby better off homicide

13:16

the not flu or isn't uplifting well

13:18

of nuclear a nuclear iran destruction

13:21

or pandemic ,

13:24

bio bio weapons release

13:26

or what's on your mind i suspect you know sleeper

13:28

well at night well but i am

13:31

also more worried about you but ah

13:34

as i understand you're saying it's saying shame read

13:36

your book that you're book focused on

13:39

preserving the opportunity

13:41

for these multi billions of people

13:44

in the future to to flourish ah

13:47

excellent and you want to make sure and

13:50

and in

13:52

not just that they will come into existence meaning

13:54

not just that will avoid a nuclear disaster

13:57

or web global pandemic that

13:59

sub imaginably worse consequences

14:02

that other imaginably we're sorry would

14:04

, worse consequences and said covert

14:07

covert you're also worried about the fact this to to games

14:09

take an example some exactly new book but

14:11

it could have an that ,

14:13

an authoritarian leader would take

14:16

charge of the world yet inflict

14:18

enormous screen on the billions of people that

14:20

will come in the future and those are cut the kind

14:22

of things that we ought to be focused

14:24

on but that preventing that

14:26

and encouraging survival

14:28

days of the race human species

14:31

are going into the into the future

14:33

to injury all these benefits now

14:37

one argument it comes to mind is

14:40

you know we're doing pretty well without

14:43

long term is that

14:45

is the focus the you

14:47

want to bring to the moral calculus

14:50

to to take more account

14:52

of these future folks

14:55

he , ever do pretty well right nobody's

14:58

where it's been focus on these issues you're

15:00

trying to bring that focus but hey

15:03

here we are

15:04

two hundred fifty or so into the industrial revolution

15:07

lifespans , to rise and some

15:09

blips lately but lifespans arising

15:12

send a living dramatically dramatically

15:14

higher for enormous numbers

15:17

of people and you one

15:19

could argue that the kind of focus that you

15:21

want habs have have

15:24

more concentration

15:27

on steering the future wisely is actually

15:30

either hard to do or ill

15:32

advised because we don't know how to do

15:34

what's what's the case for

15:37

why we should care about this isn't

15:40

isn't a kind of going okay

15:41

yes

15:45

my first thing i say is that and

15:47

the sympathetic to thinking at least the

15:49

baseline what other things

15:52

that me been doing it in the past

15:54

of just like works really well including

15:56

is an unanticipated blaze

15:59

we don't have like maybe a great story

16:03

mean of with detail about how that elsa

16:05

into the future that this is

16:07

t doing this can have more of a good thing absolutely

16:10

sympathetic to that as a baseline

16:13

and i do think that supports can of

16:16

making institutions better than

16:18

lighter more i'm trusting

16:21

an open mind is on his little

16:23

culture and and of course innovation

16:25

as well however

16:27

this argument like any we've been doing so well

16:29

things in getting better it

16:31

does seem a little pretzel to me so here's

16:34

a question what with the probability

16:37

that

16:38

the u s us as i would have an all

16:40

out nuclear exchange

16:42

age

16:43

if i had to guess is something like won't

16:46

say

16:47

could have been higher

16:48

and now let's go about worthless

16:51

weather was one

16:52

would we be having a conversation which is

16:54

like well we're doing very well fake

16:56

is a big bertha routine like sure we've

16:59

been going along with and having a lot technologies

17:01

that covers greater power that you know

17:03

it's the same you can find

17:05

i think we probably wouldn't be having that conversation

17:08

no i would like us to be in

17:10

a world where that

17:13

advice goes all out nuclear war

17:15

was not like when inslee instead of small like

17:17

one percent or one so basically as low

17:19

as most we could get it i'm

17:22

and that's precisely because i

17:24

think the significant

17:26

part we have been doing why

17:29

would face and a surprisingly well i mean if you just

17:31

look at like what is human history like

17:33

and it's a dark place

17:35

people like past had the miserable lives

17:38

they live

17:39

the

17:40

the majority of people were in some form of

17:43

forced labor the is my dad guess

17:46

you know the world was extremely patriarchal

17:49

ah it was enormous matter suffering

17:51

a new house so i guess i kind

17:53

of agree that like there's a certain

17:55

set of culture and institutions combined

17:58

with innovation but during

17:59

well

18:00

and there

18:03

are just meaningful risks of

18:05

that not going well and we've seen

18:07

the first warning signs in the twentieth century

18:10

on both the value side and the technological

18:12

site technological side we saw nuclear

18:14

weapons on the value side we saw

18:16

a totalitarian regimes even

18:18

arising out democracies and

18:21

you know i think it would be very unlikely that the nazis

18:24

one well what to given how history actually was

18:27

you're not crazy

18:30

the

18:31

not really to imagine of a you know what has to be

18:33

he's actually nazis assist

18:35

assist values

18:37

the ago that

18:39

the he was successful in establishing as

18:41

near as you and again where

18:44

you and i looking at that was also i don't think

18:46

we would be saying like a while ago and well

18:49

so i just one of the juice those this doesn't work

18:51

on well really

18:52

the nine forty five for sure he we

18:54

don't have to have a gets

18:57

the nazis win or nuclear war week we had

18:59

between fascism announces i'm

19:02

on a know one hundred a hundred

19:04

million people died for

19:07

before their time ah yes

19:10

that raises that different challenge to your tear

19:12

claims which is you want to push

19:15

the importance of morality and

19:18

putting in front center the promise

19:20

which morality of certainly

19:23

the fascists and

19:25

communists thought they were doing something that was

19:27

good they enlisted

19:30

the support of millions they

19:32

, have the support of millions are

19:34

there are many many people who yep

19:36

still think stalin was a good guy know so many of

19:39

as for hitler but you know a

19:41

few ah and

19:43

dumb it's hard to know what's

19:45

right and i don't know his philosophy

19:48

you argued that that we do

19:50

been toward more immoral world

19:53

over the few hundred

19:55

years, five hundred that's,

19:57

there's a lot of edmunds that agree but

19:59

them evidence that were

20:01

you maybe not

20:04

okay so the key distinction here it is think

20:06

this between very

20:09

narrow totalizing models use and

20:12

basically a three with you that model

20:15

ideology can be very scared

20:17

can be very scary thing the nazis

20:19

or stalinists have some very

20:21

particular vision of the future and wants to implemented

20:24

and will willing to testify or societies in

20:26

the name is a that's something that she's really

20:28

scare us

20:30

the you the different perspective

20:32

the perspective of saying

20:34

we don't know what's my we might we're

20:36

probably still very far away from the kind

20:39

of mortally best the u s of even as such a thing

20:41

as a marvelous you that's that

20:43

more enlightened feature people with

20:45

think of us is maybe a little better than the

20:47

romans but not enormously better

20:50

and so what we want to do is build

20:52

a society that can have can

20:54

day

20:55

the great diversity of model views

20:57

and i kind of culture

20:59

and it's to shall set up

21:01

that's that those views can debate

21:04

and reason and experiments and we

21:06

can learn over time i

21:08

wish the right model of us and so

21:10

the kind of best ideas when out on

21:12

their merits of other than fire

21:15

in of conquest for example

21:18

i really like that

21:21

now as we know things don't always

21:23

went out on their merits or who's which may or search

21:25

shows and but i think

21:27

that there is a decentralized aspect

21:29

of the book for

21:32

a few pages any way that were you worry

21:34

about

21:35

the

21:36

the lack of diversity he to a very

21:38

thoughtful point you may have said

21:41

the worldwide response to covered was quite

21:43

uniform there are variations

21:45

and how much sweep or lockdown how

21:47

much authoritarianism was imposed

21:50

but there wasn't a lot of experimentation

21:52

are most of the country's the world did

21:54

something very similar and

21:56

we lost an opportunity to learn to learn and

21:58

i

21:59

that absurd

21:59

then very important

22:03

absolutely soaked is a seam

22:05

and the books that i don't really make explicit

22:08

but he of his wits is

22:10

the attention where

22:12

i'm of the major risks of catastrophe

22:15

kind of failures of global coordination

22:18

so the risk of a nuclear war or

22:21

development of technology that kids

22:24

destroy us all or ah

22:27

initially carbon emissions as well where

22:30

the first there is towards greater centralization

22:33

of the world

22:35

i'm

22:36

however what i want to say is gonna best summer and

22:38

to where greater sense was

22:40

a son could mean we the door moral

22:42

progress in the workplace

22:45

been of so precise you got well government

22:47

is dictatorship has a narrow ideology

22:49

that box in forever even

22:52

if we just have this like gradual marginalization

22:55

and people stop really trying

22:58

to make model so guess because people think

23:00

wait are we going to the the pinnacle

23:03

in the way that maybe the romans actually thought

23:05

they were they pinnacle of civilization

23:07

i think that could potentially the express v to

23:10

so when were thinking

23:12

about what sort institutions to be warm we

23:15

want kind of fed just needle where

23:17

you can have a diversity

23:21

of miles use experiments s ideas

23:23

winning out while the same times

23:25

and of mitigating the west risks and

23:27

i think we've seen some evidence and it is

23:29

interesting if you are

23:31

i think

23:32

the us constitution as like

23:35

the old and like ice article terms

23:37

the mouth of a successful attacks task and

23:40

that needle the are obviously not playmates

23:42

perfect

23:43

the

23:44

the shows that you can have

23:47

those of these things at once though is

23:49

notable that's the

23:51

for his i think push towards centralization

23:55

the cares the united states

23:57

okay well it could have been that kind of

23:59

the policy

23:59

democracy and all of these different states pursuing

24:02

very different things and maybe

24:04

they have each state kind of has like large

24:06

state governments and

24:08

the that

24:10

the federal level a syllable minimal and

24:13

historically that's just not what happened of course there

24:15

was like consolidation anders song

24:17

kind of evolutionary

24:20

reasons for back to the united states in

24:22

competition with other nations l be more powerful

24:25

the

24:26

and again

24:28

i'm not making any comment light is this overall

24:31

good or bad it's something that we should notice

24:33

is like a general trend and

24:35

is

24:37

and though it's less

24:41

though it with salient as a catastrophe

24:44

that would in a white and ninety nine percent

24:46

of people as for see that

24:48

would result some a failure

24:50

to make progressive the long

24:52

term i think is just as the oh and something he

24:54

should be taught met just as much as an interesting

24:56

side note as to how much

24:59

rise the federal government which i really

25:01

think it's actually fairly recently

25:04

in us history us history nineteen thirties

25:08

and that that phenomenon

25:10

the is a yeah some

25:13

sense an irresistible force in a world of

25:15

competition certainly europe has

25:17

moved toward a more centralized

25:21

situation or tried to now

25:24

, we also have to talk about the fact that i'm

25:26

not it's not such designed it's

25:28

not like people sitting around saying it'll be good for bigger

25:31

some of it as a grab for power power

25:34

a grab for power without accountability which

25:36

accountability , is that the reason the you is not

25:39

gotten much much stronger more

25:41

powerful than it otherwise is and

25:43

similar the united states saw there

25:45

is some bushwhack on that consolidation

25:48

on on for reasons of fear of

25:50

the kind of things are talking about ah

25:53

let me let me read and another

25:56

short excerpt from the book

25:59

a future people count but we rarely

26:02

count them and , vote

26:04

or labia run for public office or politicians

26:07

have skin and center to think about them and

26:09

camp morgan or trade with the say they

26:11

have little representation a market and

26:13

they can't make their views her directly the can't tweet

26:15

or read articles the newspapers or marks in the streets

26:18

they are utterly disenfranchised now

26:21

i think that's not true or

26:23

innocence which it's kind of true literally

26:25

but it's not true in the effect of sense because

26:28

of

26:29

the way people come into the world and and

26:32

i felt

26:33

you'd like at this aspect of

26:35

the , experience which is to say those

26:38

feature people you're talking about

26:40

there are children

26:41

her grandchildren are the somebody is often

26:44

grandchildren gray every grandchildren

26:47

and , not disenfranchised we

26:49

care about them quite a bit bit

26:51

it's true i care more about more

26:54

child than my grandchild with my grandchild

26:56

is my born but the potential

26:59

for my grandchild to be born would track which

27:01

i would in mind is not ignored

27:03

it's not a big i don't door

27:06

now you could argue yeah but twenty generation

27:08

so now so distance i don't think

27:10

about it but the fundamental principle

27:13

that the future is born

27:15

out of the present through the family

27:18

seems to me the care of some

27:20

of the things you're worried about

27:24

i agree that a taste tests

27:26

some of the things and you know if we

27:28

imagine the world's where

27:30

people didn't care about their children oregon soldiers

27:33

children at home i agree will

27:35

be in an even worse

27:38

the

27:41

however

27:42

you're right

27:43

lots of that you quickly

27:46

and and i mentioned earlier

27:48

lifestyles typical mammal species about million

27:50

years that would mean seven hundred thousand years

27:52

ago

27:53

okay let's take someone i

27:56

just shared to those sort of has not watching

27:59

the city the city gave a silent

28:01

share that said well reacted to a

28:04

week of seven hundred thousand more years

28:06

few or worse

28:09

we've already use up three hundred thousand or million

28:11

it's only seven hundred thousand laps could go the other way

28:14

yeah i mean we also

28:17

i think we could last much longer than a million years as

28:19

will be held habitable for hundreds of millions and

28:22

and i don't think the zoc natural

28:24

catastrophes but ah we

28:27

go a species necessarily need to kill us

28:29

even

28:31

yeah

28:33

people cared about the kids and nine cents and that's an

28:35

important source for that

28:38

sentiment consensus each generation i

28:41

don't think it nearly matches the

28:43

scale concerns that would be my we associate

28:46

given that

28:47

the vast majority of people

28:50

not even people was great make my

28:52

grandkids that can of lives are

28:54

past that point

28:56

the

28:57

the even take

28:59

me my point about them being

29:01

the suffered size

29:03

the that

29:05

we take action

29:07

oh

29:08

the generations

29:10

his buyer

29:12

the

29:14

it via the views and values

29:16

people they do better to pay and markets

29:18

you can vote so an analogy

29:20

could be with nonhuman animals now

29:23

you might say i might say i'm concerned

29:25

this is a lot nonhuman animals i don't think people take

29:27

him seriously enough you might see what people can about

29:29

money mammals they care about their pets

29:31

the so on and like yeah issue

29:34

but also disenfranchised

29:35

looking directly at what happens the animals

29:38

benefits well it's it's pretty well

29:40

the eighty billion animals

29:42

lol almost all and perfect

29:45

conditions on and and sources they

29:47

have really terrible wise and

29:49

i think there's an analogy between that

29:52

and she two people were the sure we

29:54

have some out of concern about animals not

29:56

nearly as much as we should have and that

29:58

means that we inflict the owners and

30:00

unnecessary suffering on i think

30:02

the same some kind of happens for feature where the

30:05

some amount of concern that's not

30:07

nearly as much as i think vote

30:10

the the animals are friends really interesting issue

30:13

arm earbuds terrarium you'd

30:15

harper down the block are i'm not

30:18

but i think it's a serious moral question

30:20

on i think the president pretends

30:23

to be moral as i do as , confront

30:25

this right i like to think of myself as a moral person

30:27

so what the heck am i doing mates and

30:30

i could see well don't you that often astronomer

30:33

guy yeah i'm least only tortured torment

30:35

animals tortured torment bits of

30:37

i think like slavery

30:40

an issue will come to a minute and would shoot to talk

30:42

about quite eloquently in the book i

30:44

think most people have

30:46

most people

30:47

who else slaves many sound

30:50

, of convince themselves that wasn't a bit

30:52

such a bad thing and as many of us

30:54

who eat me i've found ways to commence

30:56

ourselves and we might be very wrong about

30:59

that just as those be boy thinks

31:01

who felt morally comfortable

31:03

with slavery were wrong are

31:05

certain with the benefit of hindsight our

31:07

site our site

31:10

i don't think that's i think that you make a good

31:12

point that it could be that my

31:14

concern for future generations

31:17

is something akin to my concern for animals

31:19

that have a story to tell will probably be okay

31:21

they're going to be richer than me and i can therefore is still

31:23

maybe i'm just maybe him to school in a cell

31:25

arm and and finding ways to

31:28

do what i wanna do rather than what is more

31:30

is correct and for possible yeah

31:34

well bounce you'll have precluded one

31:36

way or the other versions of because he said well

31:38

i already read your first well and you haven't won me over yet

31:40

but it could be this this marginal our could

31:42

be that but puts me on for the ads for sure

31:47

i'm as you tougher

31:49

question maybe i'm maybe it's an easy

31:51

wonder ah mr

31:54

don't have any kids i have i

31:56

actually have for and to set

31:58

my first grandchild so i'm i'm more the summer

32:00

future i think than i was a month ago

32:04

because ranks but

32:05

let's pretend i don't have any

32:07

kids or amount of

32:09

are particularly emotionally

32:12

connected parent or grandparent

32:14

and certainly ten generations

32:16

from now just doesn't have any salient

32:19

for me i'm

32:21

so am i suppose

32:24

we believe that say climate change there's

32:27

going to have catastrophic the

32:30

impact on human m the

32:32

more agnostic on that and

32:35

and we're not a dot similar bit skeptical

32:37

that of the catastrophic birds i'm

32:39

open to the possibility that it could be bad but

32:42

the catastrophic part i think so low probability because

32:44

they will but still such bad downside

32:46

you should be very focused on it let's

32:49

say me i'm not a prickly nice person

32:52

now

32:54

they'd autonomy because i don't care

32:57

about animals and i am

32:59

why

33:03

everywhere because i'm not worried about carbon

33:05

dioxide emissions and

33:08

you're told me i should worry about somebody

33:11

seven hundred thousand years

33:13

from now why

33:15

why should i care let's say they're gonna

33:18

they're never gonna come into existence the

33:20

de paul saffo question which look

33:23

at it something like than the box but

33:25

the city come into existence our wives worse than

33:27

mine because there's a lot

33:29

of plagues and this bad

33:31

moral views and institutions

33:33

have degraded and there's been a was

33:36

lost civilization so what what why

33:38

should i care about their happiness i got my own well

33:41

why should i care about there's what's the what's

33:43

the argument to do not my kids because i don't care

33:45

about good or don't have any why should i

33:47

care about their minds of my happiness paramount the

33:51

answer of how do i think is your son she just

33:53

likes the it's repugnant view but when

33:56

i i'm like you require you think it's for bugs

34:00

the way to i think that's and it was

34:02

once you you could have we just projects any

34:04

sort of moral reasons at all he

34:06

just a pure egoiste

34:08

the

34:10

retiring tobacco

34:12

if you want view which

34:14

is that's yeah i think the

34:16

moral reasons to people who are

34:19

in the same generation is me the

34:21

bachelor interact with the not and people in the future

34:23

i just think that have any morally unintuitive

34:26

june so

34:27

i'm

34:29

imagine i give the story in the backers

34:32

and hiking or the sale was awesome

34:34

glass the glass shatters

34:36

the should actually not second class

34:38

after myself and i think you have the answer

34:40

is yes and whites what someone might come along

34:42

and cut themselves on

34:44

how do we know that will

34:47

it really matter whether that

34:49

person such themselves tomorrow

34:51

or in a year's time or decades

34:54

or even if it was one hundred years or thousand years

34:56

and i think intuitively know as long

34:58

as your son that's gonna happen then

35:02

harm is tom just whenever that occurs

35:06

anything we can explain the on was silver

35:08

school grounds as well aware

35:11

the about the and ah is about impossible

35:13

it's had taken seriously the ancestors

35:16

anyone who either no sense especially

35:18

when it comes to potentially harming them and

35:22

the near location anti matter

35:25

that seems like of the

35:27

seems like the mean i agree with that hundred percent

35:30

but why should i care about today so

35:32

i i break the glass and to do since to pick

35:34

it up i'm in a hurry more

35:36

secure but there's other people where's people

35:38

where's have an obligation to them

35:41

okay so i'm in my own fundamental unanswered

35:44

because i feel bad if in a minute

35:46

i'm so guilty but i'm pretty taking a case

35:48

repugnant case where i don't to ban on effect

35:51

i think i'm a sucker for some pick it up i'm

35:53

going to just go on and gonna do my thing

35:56

okay so this is the one of the deepest questions

35:58

and sausage sandwiches why what i to be model

36:02

and i think ultimately there's no nonsense

36:04

so answer why

36:07

should you pick it up because you have reasons

36:09

to watch other people and

36:11

i should know that there's an equal

36:14

the argument

36:15

the war

36:16

why i can't about myself

36:18

neither do i have acting

36:20

in my own incest love nesting emissions

36:22

tests of others take

36:24

that position and this like

36:26

the anti a my list or something what

36:29

do you could could you give me for saying oh no he's really

36:31

care about yourself i don't think that

36:33

would be any non secular

36:35

you would have to appeal to things

36:37

like

36:38

well

36:40

they are going to movies will make you happy

36:42

then i could always ask well i don't miles may care

36:44

about being happy or it'll give you a

36:46

feeling of accomplishment to see the task and i could say

36:48

well why should i care about that

36:51

ultimately

36:53

if you ask this like why should i care

36:55

you'll always is at some point

36:57

have to points to the reasons so

37:00

in why should i go to movies me to say well because

37:02

i'd be happy and i think that's a good reason

37:05

and is it's why should i

37:07

not

37:09

the

37:10

someone else

37:11

and you would say because they will suffer

37:13

i think that's the kind of bet that's the baseball

37:16

season and if i ask what was i care about something

37:18

there's no sort of isn't that when he gets others

37:21

if you believe in god and enter mostly human history

37:24

the civilized human history since

37:26

the advent of of monotheism

37:28

at least there was a

37:30

a that you bet navigation of the creator

37:33

have some kind of different

37:35

religions feel like an obligation differently

37:38

but

37:40

i think without that it's really hard to argue for

37:42

why does she care about other people in i

37:44

don't i'm not saying it isn't we've we've

37:46

found ways the sustain

37:49

well i wouldn't say that it's not clear whether

37:51

in the of the mummy us go

37:54

ahead sorry sight of l a reactor

37:56

that will measure as this one is a pc say i

37:58

think god doesn't save us miss why

38:00

i'm ah because

38:03

he that's the same thing so it's okay why should

38:05

i

38:06

that know what's the pick up the glass

38:09

and say well ultimately to god wants

38:11

you to

38:12

they won't why should i care about what god wants me

38:14

to do

38:15

what my say care about what god says

38:17

his name along with a psycho i'll go to hell

38:19

when it's like well that's that's the kind of selfish

38:21

has missing my say care that are you in suspense

38:23

so again at some point

38:26

you're destroying a line with her sisters

38:29

the

38:30

giving one

38:33

additional kind of level of explanation for

38:35

the wife questions in the applied to that agreed

38:38

to counter argument so let me let me try

38:40

to hi won against my own

38:42

position you're saying that the

38:44

person who embraces say the categorical

38:46

imperative as

38:49

a i'm out rule to live by cons

38:52

ah and

38:54

where how would you call it or not at not advice can't

38:56

some what's the word i want

38:59

the solution

39:01

that use it and they have ends and

39:03

shoes according to they

39:06

imagining that this was a universal

39:08

rule that everyone would act this

39:10

way and then you you look at how that

39:12

world would play out and say well played out

39:14

really you , that the my favorite

39:16

example the says you sample the great but

39:18

the at the grocery store

39:20

when they don't want you to sample the gray been is it was

39:23

only one great but of course if everyone did that greatest

39:25

are going to get more expensive and it could be they want

39:27

you to sample and so on but so on

39:29

science is no different than embracing

39:33

the god of of

39:35

the older new testament or of of

39:37

the koran a it's

39:40

just a belief that you've decided

39:42

said take on your for yourself

39:44

that has no can't you can't

39:46

justify it yeah

39:49

i mean just yeah some of it at

39:51

some point you get you hit bedrock and

39:53

services to for not

39:56

as moral beliefs or other sorts of

39:58

least as well aware the

40:01

you know let's say your

40:03

get the goal of climate change athena

40:06

altogether you know is it is a very even

40:08

woman

40:09

oh yeah of course the newspapers knew i'd

40:11

by simply the papers and like okay because

40:13

applied sciences experiments weiss i believe

40:16

that and i'm like maybe goes always

40:18

like and he said as doing experiments in

40:20

front of you and like why should i think

40:22

bicyclists expenses to match my rex

40:26

yeah yeah or it's like at some point

40:28

the

40:30

the at some point i just

40:33

i'm giving you reasons and if

40:35

you're not accepting them as recent as nothing more

40:37

i can do the say no

40:40

the take an even simpler times i'm actually still

40:42

equals for the like why should i believe that like

40:44

well one plus one equals to

40:46

though

40:47

the was do it was one for one person person

40:50

and want to focus on plus one equals

40:52

for

40:53

and you're like media like i got the first uber

40:55

just don't buy the second that i'm

40:58

i'm like what can i say in response to that

41:00

i think it's nothing has given you a reason this a genuine

41:02

reasons he to change the police if

41:04

you're not willing to accept that this that this content

41:07

of get you hours

41:08

that what we my coat and unfair to civic black hole

41:11

i do think though that religion as

41:13

a social construct not as an intellectual

41:15

experience on ones were talking about what as

41:17

a social cultural

41:20

phenomenon has the potential

41:22

to restrain some types of behavior

41:24

while encouraging others to could be also could be negatives

41:27

ah that we have not

41:29

shown for sure that intellectually

41:31

i'm a pleasant

41:34

writing save i can't nagel i

41:37

can substitute for this isn't hard

41:40

to ask yeah i'm gonna go

41:42

leaders will surprise you but i completely agree actually

41:44

and mean i think of the listeners

41:46

like it's like a technology like the social

41:48

innovation where in particular

41:51

the thing that appeared many different

41:53

religious tradition as what's called big gods

41:56

the the gods who or what say you

41:58

while you're alone

41:59

while no one else is going through and

42:02

they and they care model

42:04

what you do so no one else is

42:06

that and you could steal that their food feel

42:09

that money

42:10

no one would catch you

42:12

god good though got it butcher you now

42:14

that's crazy as an innovation that

42:17

everyone believes that when you get a lot less the

42:19

writing get a lot less detail

42:21

and ah you are basically right

42:24

like how long have we had and i kind of posts

42:26

religious either mean we're not even bet with

42:28

when i isn't there yet the we the well there's a

42:31

sixteen percent is to like gnostic

42:33

and

42:35

honestly i just do what he about it perhaps

42:37

you just to get see writing something back and

42:40

of will i get spooked at the moment

42:42

at the moment not people so morally motivated to

42:44

make about fitness fascinating dispensing

42:46

questions minutes could different version of it now

42:49

you ever thought of it's a thought experiment where

42:51

ah but it's a eighty million

42:54

people are destroyed and a nuclear

42:56

war plague so

42:58

we have a whore group of survivors

43:01

an eraser sassine question about

43:04

how much technology would we be able to recover

43:06

retire but that's all about them and give you my story

43:08

is done and suicide

43:11

yourself and others

43:13

just because ah yeah

43:15

what the things that that not

43:17

just the present long time well

43:20

this is enormously important question

43:22

of much how fragile as civilization the so

43:24

some tests see that really not as of course

43:27

made by see ninety nine cent the world's population

43:30

the to be recovered

43:31

the is obviously savings just

43:34

one hundred percent of that about anyway to

43:37

to christmas cheer loss of life involves

43:41

and but with the also just

43:43

the event civilization from ever returning

43:45

in a longer

43:46

and i think going no i see i think

43:48

mans you can have remarkably resilient

43:51

and there's a few reasons why i think this

43:54

one is just if you look the

43:56

enormous but still smaller scales test sees

43:58

oh and like the black guess

44:01

i'm in your that or

44:03

even the bombings of hiroshima and nagasaki

44:05

auto said success deceased he sees

44:08

people having the remarkable resilience

44:10

and the suspects test the scene let's

44:12

enormous mass of stuff know that

44:15

people who signed the bill phones

44:18

the store sebastian

44:20

and then a second is just a second reason

44:22

for thinking that we would bounce back is

44:24

this how much knowledge would be preserved there

44:27

are tens of thousands of my buddies

44:30

in locations that wouldn't be friends

44:32

by a nuclear war the

44:35

which are sufficiently try that's

44:38

the paper would actually survive such as

44:40

a long time is also just

44:42

evidence of the tools that we've made even

44:45

if we go back always the industrial

44:47

technology

44:50

the much easier to invent something if you got

44:52

this like

44:52

the type of as things because

44:55

the people will know what are they used to be this more

44:57

advanced technology now that the same split second

44:59

faster right what's going on the eve

45:01

of these got the idea for i'm

45:04

in the final thing is if you just look at like water

45:06

sources ah

45:10

the any particular resources that could be

45:12

bottlenecks with just simply prevent the

45:15

realization something coming

45:17

back for estate i haven't

45:19

found when yeah that could be back on

45:21

to be used opposite the wouldn't have access

45:23

to them i'm sound when yeah i'm

45:26

is so is think that's are unlikely

45:28

to unlikely to the bottom

45:30

i only thing i would answer that as an economist is

45:33

something i've thought about a great deal which is

45:36

how many people do you need

45:38

the have a successful divisional labour

45:41

the great among themselves and example

45:43

i use one hundred people on a desert

45:46

, not as around you put one hundred people on an

45:48

island has really rich resources

45:51

all the minerals you might possibly want really

45:53

fertile soil ah

45:56

and you get to pick who the hundred people are he can pick

45:58

the smartest most that you can pick

46:01

, people in terms of their skills and and size

46:04

size knowledge that they would bring that you're talking about

46:06

have saved technology and implementation

46:09

hundred people are given really poor and i'm sure how

46:11

smart they are sincere hub is

46:13

rich the island is rich titanium so

46:16

you just don't have enough ah

46:19

opportunity exploit the smithy and

46:22

ah gains from the divisional labor

46:25

and one of the miracles i think modern

46:27

times that we don't appreciate as it trade

46:31

allows seven now a billion

46:33

people to specialize

46:35

and dupont's two different things they couldn't do we

46:38

were smart interesting question whether eighty million

46:41

how much time would we have to devote to just stay alive

46:44

and keeping as subsistence level of

46:49

the wellbeing of all we could do a straight among ourselves

46:51

just those eighty million of them

46:54

you know how many people willing to devote to certain tasks

46:56

farming being one is a non

46:59

current level of technology would have a much lower

47:01

level to start with him , a nineteen

47:03

hundred ninety nine hundred forty percent of americans were

47:05

farmers so with that were true true

47:08

this post apocalypse post

47:10

yeah you got you got thirty two million

47:12

of your eighty million people just don't

47:14

farm and ah and now

47:16

you're down to forty eight million and will

47:19

how many of them to be making

47:21

software for your smartphone if it's

47:24

he is he be a long way from it

47:26

would take a long long time i think to get back

47:28

to earth eating like i'm understand

47:31

i yeah i mean absolutely i

47:33

was talking about

47:35

then and not how life and whether

47:38

yeah in fact that sunny weather yesterday

47:41

wasn't enough along and

47:43

that's movie

47:45

the situation if it's eight million people left

47:47

on earth would be considerably worse in a situation

47:49

where hundred eighty million people

47:51

all in one location in this kind of deserve such

47:54

civilization protected be have spread

47:56

out around the world arms

47:58

the

48:01

like in principle i think you could have a

48:03

those

48:06

i think you notice

48:07

if the united states well aware

48:10

that

48:11

well as the rest of the world was gonna just

48:13

disappear in twenty years' time and has

48:15

of each in sickness economy i

48:18

think it could probably do that the

48:20

scenes and fifty million people

48:22

without

48:23

the massive block and wellbeing

48:25

the

48:26

teach a level of technology

48:28

it's a level of customization perhaps that's not needed

48:31

apps or something the then

48:35

eighty million people media

48:37

says become a little a little more concerned the

48:40

certainly then we'll eighty million people around the world i

48:42

mean yeah i would just absolutely predicts

48:45

that living standards which not enormously allies

48:47

even kind of assuming read lose

48:50

out on industrial level technology i think that's probably

48:52

not see that we lose out on the law and it

48:55

be admissible it , be a miserable

48:57

period of human history

49:00

most of your to thought experiment

49:03

prompted me to think amounts very know what we just

49:05

talked about a minute ago your

49:07

focus on the book is on technological knowledge

49:10

engineering knowledge of ability

49:13

to to innovate as ,

49:15

would have eighty the eighty million who survived

49:18

had no religion and no knowledge of religion

49:20

so they didn't how's that technological

49:22

things you talked about of that someone's watching

49:25

would it matter if we lost say the

49:27

bible the koran or

49:29

and then i thought about the iliad the odyssey

49:32

hello plato and aristotle what what is all

49:35

we have left was we'd lost

49:38

literature the was philosophy

49:41

and , had the techno but we kept the technological

49:43

knowledge that you're talking about right we have

49:46

we have all the toys and all the knowledge

49:48

to make the toys and endemic to didn't make better

49:50

choice which is what human beings to to

49:53

a difference or the census just saw

49:55

this this humanity stuff to sit are

49:58

bad or know

50:01

where would you call it will this is yeah

50:03

i actually think publicists

50:06

enormously important maybe even the most important

50:09

the longer term aspects of

50:11

civilizational class so again

50:14

and sizing we want to prevent this nearly

50:19

tell me that many times more than sufficient

50:22

ah the i

50:24

think like is the world came back

50:27

how would it be in terms of its values in terms

50:29

of his institutions compared to the world's day and

50:33

over time i've come to the view that

50:35

again

50:38

in particular is kind of egalitarian

50:41

liberal democratic

50:43

the

50:44

well have you answer as cold houses

50:47

and institutions there's the prevailing

50:49

state where

50:51

at least somewhat lucky in that i think there are

50:53

certain forces that mean that this makes

50:56

more sense given the current level

50:58

was technological the development

51:00

technological change than in

51:02

the past the if you tell

51:04

me that kind of as as the see the welcomes

51:06

that yeah we get to this

51:08

level of technological development slave

51:11

owning is very wisely widespread oh

51:14

the large majority of currencies in the world without

51:17

italian thousand democratic hello

51:19

yeah i'm not surprised you know as and

51:21

i'm not like oh that's been impossible facts and

51:24

i think that makes well considerably worse and

51:26

paste beans as i'm into the future

51:28

you talk about contingency you know

51:31

what would have happened eventually it's very

51:33

fascinating question , as

51:35

you ask the question i i think was quite

51:37

is quite profound ah

51:40

slavery ended in england and

51:42

eighteen or seven i think so

51:44

was in england this

51:47

sleeps rating was outlawed

51:49

and most of the british empire ninety seven

51:52

owning slaves without board and eighteen says

51:54

so that was an amazing thing

51:56

which we served take for granted because of course sites

51:59

or homes the civil war can be have united

52:01

states and the north happens

52:03

when didn't have to turn out that way

52:05

it could have laws yes i or

52:07

the could have sued for peace and and kept

52:10

the south as a slave owning alternatives

52:12

some be would argue the economics wouldn't have would

52:14

have ended slavery eventually be you make the case has he quite

52:16

provocatively that that's not necessarily

52:19

true and maybe

52:21

could have persisted and and therefore

52:24

we should be very thoughtful

52:26

about those , of social

52:28

changes and the evolution morality suits

52:30

talk about benjamin way a person who deserves

52:33

to be of said never heard of i'm sorry

52:35

what benjamin lay and some question

52:37

of of of moral values because

52:39

i think the way i phrased that about the was the humanities

52:42

in other words of we lost our soul knowledge

52:46

how the world's had evolved up till now

52:49

and our knowledge of history in the so called lessons

52:51

of history and philosophy would

52:53

we recreate in the answers you're suggesting it probably

52:55

not so this whole idea that things

52:57

are not destined

52:59

necessarily and there's some individuals

53:02

who pushed a pass over pass certain assert direction

53:05

is very is very provoking

53:08

yeah and in particular i think some

53:11

things are destined and other things aren't so

53:13

if i'm gonna build some new technology and

53:15

okay am i making

53:17

well but i was gonna to in the short some

53:20

the in the long term i think the intense incentives

53:22

across many different kind of

53:25

walters my views you could have for

53:27

technological innovation means the

53:29

i think by and large will get there eventually the

53:32

case of model changes though it's to i think

53:34

that's much less obvious and the

53:37

lived in many cases things could go either way

53:39

though earlier as it

53:41

you know there aren't enough be many many

53:43

model changed majors in the wilds i scan

53:46

of highlights one particularly notable examples

53:48

of this is the soy so wonderful so

53:50

defenseman laser com a clinton

53:54

the

53:56

that is it was he the first himself

53:58

as little business

53:59

that old go to be goliath

54:02

lydia davis you

54:04

he collide

54:05

and

54:07

he is

54:09

among the earliest people to

54:11

really push that we have it

54:13

was house to be really

54:15

pressing for the end

54:17

of snavely in a way that to

54:21

us now can go to social campaign and

54:24

, was born towards the end of seventeen some city

54:28

owns most of us is when an

54:30

earlier he

54:33

just around the philadelphia

54:35

quakers in particular that kind of have

54:37

the opportunity at the slave owning where

54:42

he would engage in this kind of amazing

54:44

gorilla theater so ah

54:46

he would kind of tackle the people who stood

54:48

up to

54:51

speak you know they would be giving the small seven

54:53

and they'd be like oh there's another negro

54:55

master and , would get kicked out

54:58

of the church and he just lie face

55:00

down in the months months the

55:02

asda when everyone has nice

55:04

day and had to step over as the city

55:08

or he would to stand in the snow their seats

55:10

when people with what you're doing you're from purposely sector

55:14

nicole's to succeed at all in all winter

55:16

long in his most famous them

55:18

to grow a bible that was filled with fake blood

55:21

the sending thirty eight meeting of

55:24

quakers that said it was a

55:26

great sin to the

55:29

keepers white people

55:31

there's

55:32

sir stelios

55:34

stabbed the bible and six stops the bible

55:36

says blood spatters all over the audience is

55:40

is not exactly clear like

55:42

his direct causal influence although

55:44

he was certainly the influential

55:47

we're on our people like john woman or

55:49

entity been as a who is an enormously

55:51

influential and thus on can have better documented

55:54

ah and his kind of iraq

55:57

and site coincided says the quizzes

55:59

equip it using and

56:02

the extent of their slave owning

56:05

and so i kind of use him as a vivid story

56:07

of

56:09

i mean i call and model weirdo but model

56:12

agitator someone who

56:14

really this

56:16

model view of and respect me since completely

56:18

correct it was heterodox the time

56:22

he stood up before what

56:24

you believed and and was willing to make major

56:26

kind of sacrifices to have boycotted

56:28

all slaves to goods he lives

56:30

in a cave i'm so that he was

56:32

like no further posing consumers and

56:34

the mccullough who's vegetarian at the time size into

56:37

earlier conversation

56:38

the

56:40

and ultimately he was part

56:42

of this logic campaign that was enormously successful

56:44

maybe one of the most successful model campaigns

56:47

ever which is that called a thoughts

56:51

the game repackaged to spot enlightenment saw

56:53

convinced that is elite am

56:55

and the british public this empire

56:57

shows

56:59

the

57:00

then slavery and fighter

57:03

a big reply the

57:05

or something or other colonial

57:07

powers as well to enslave be to and

57:10

over the course of mean ultimately can

57:12

see hundred years play that

57:14

he went some possibly whitesides were like

57:16

a see the majority of people the seventeen

57:18

hundreds with some form of forced labor

57:22

who now the and kind of unthinkable

57:24

were even ago and understanding of forced

57:27

labor that's on the point five percent of the world's

57:29

population and and as each and every

57:31

country it's illegal ah

57:33

and that's the smartest thing and hi

57:37

as a learning about this i would have thought yeah this is

57:39

inevitable say that just like inevitable much

57:41

model focus oh it's

57:43

just a result of economic changes and

57:46

i no longer think that's the case i think it

57:48

was largely a mess with constant changes substance

57:51

the wells if you get is of evil history

57:54

the

57:55

and you told me that

57:58

we had today's level segment

57:59

the development of widespread forced labor

58:02

was to say they i wouldn't be like totally

58:04

shocked and sabanci more of thought

58:06

experiment

58:07

the

58:09

i'm going to give you

58:10

the challenge of this kind of thinking i think iraq

58:12

them to read what you say about way benjamin like

58:15

to , was the paradigm of a moral aren't friend

58:17

or someone who are deeply about morality took

58:19

it very seriously seriously utterly

58:21

willing to act in accordance with this convictions

58:24

and was regarded as an eccentric to an

58:26

eccentric a weirdo for that for

58:29

we should aspire to be aspire com

58:32

i thought you know kind of also true that works you

58:34

know a moral entrepreneurs are deeply about

58:36

morality took a very seriously i will

58:38

utterly willing to act in accordance with

58:41

his convictions and was referred to as as eccentric

58:43

a weirdo and told it suddenly became ensuring

58:45

that if you were german to believe

58:47

the jews are the source of of the world's problems

58:49

and therefore was okay takes to do it was

58:51

i'm takes murder them and for

58:53

me as murder

58:56

my challenge

58:59

the person who has embraced

59:01

to of the motto is complicated

59:04

it's hard for me

59:07

to be what's

59:10

the word you say utterly

59:13

willing to act in accordance with his convictions

59:16

for me it's hard because i'm aware

59:18

that i could be wrong and i'm i

59:20

try to be opened the possibility that i

59:22

can be wrong if you feel

59:24

that way you're not let me benjamin line which

59:27

is a shame but your os and i can be hitler

59:29

which is a good thing so it raised

59:31

the question of have had you know that your

59:34

moral conviction then you eccentricities

59:37

had in the right direction

59:38

yeah

59:41

enemies

59:43

you depressants and

59:45

like this that is extremely tough

59:47

i'm just like balance of light the

59:50

rewards diversity my

59:52

views one the used to give

59:54

ah

59:55

the air time

59:57

we should be aware of in the past

59:59

use that would have been potentially

1:00:02

even repugnant you

1:00:04

don't being against slave

1:00:06

owning mean certainly laughable

1:00:08

that as i'm concerned the consensus

1:00:11

apartments you giving rise to women we

1:00:14

now seen cause is like major model advances

1:00:19

the same time some views on my way

1:00:21

repugnant zippers usama we the person one

1:00:24

thing as it certainly seems like an enormous

1:00:27

difference between hitler and

1:00:29

spends mandalay is a defensive means

1:00:31

though benjamin way was like agitating

1:00:34

he was making arguments he was engaging

1:00:36

in hockey for public protests

1:00:39

it would buy at a power

1:00:41

as like season and embassy

1:00:42

he managed to convince the quakers sunday

1:00:45

managed to convince those additionally and

1:00:47

the public's it's via to nice is considered their man

1:00:49

sandstone the early hitler did the same thing

1:00:51

to wrote a box he had

1:00:53

protests he started to social movements

1:00:56

months ago power than he could really implement

1:00:58

his vision and lay never got that power he could

1:01:00

argue so that see was he was insulated

1:01:02

from that

1:01:04

yeah i think

1:01:06

honestly i just be very surprised if lay

1:01:08

was

1:01:10

the or if you got our you would have

1:01:12

managed to dictatorship however

1:01:15

out about room

1:01:17

john brown was

1:01:19

it was a you know an

1:01:21

angel with size six six he

1:01:23

was happy to accept people down for because

1:01:25

he thought slavery was evil and a might have been right

1:01:27

and you know it's it's it's complicated

1:01:32

oh yeah

1:01:34

the think the thing as it say about yeah well we want

1:01:36

to set up a society in the right way

1:01:38

where firstly

1:01:41

you cannot use

1:01:43

conquest violence to see the events

1:01:47

i'm

1:01:48

that is not that is not a matter of can

1:01:50

of getting time

1:01:52

our views and instead

1:01:54

it should be the then

1:01:56

and embassy use

1:01:59

a challenge will make that's not enough because

1:02:02

, hitler was just this very powerful

1:02:05

retire and was and maples able to

1:02:07

convince people that dividing line

1:02:09

between light you know argumentation

1:02:12

and brainwashing is perhaps like a hard one to two

1:02:15

i'm and then perhaps i am just of the say sanders

1:02:18

with you and like man it's complicated we

1:02:21

obviously want sir the

1:02:24

we want to distinguish between brainwashing

1:02:27

and less or persuasion

1:02:29

the

1:02:31

i would think for and deception

1:02:34

in power driving

1:02:36

i would a hitler as much more like

1:02:38

the latter the than

1:02:40

the former

1:02:41

the

1:02:44

how do you actually implement that in

1:02:46

a society such you get the former

1:02:48

but not the latter and i'm like

1:02:50

it's tough i'm in a d just ridiculous

1:02:52

enormous enormous challenge i

1:02:55

do think we can do better light is exciting

1:02:57

to me that some

1:02:59

about your auditions we can have access politicians

1:03:01

the line

1:03:02

they do

1:03:04

you know maybe to get will make a decision smart mckenna

1:03:06

went well i'm terrible

1:03:09

with signs signs a world where we get like better

1:03:11

views and having the most

1:03:13

influential people in society

1:03:16

are you quite either outright lying oh

1:03:19

willfully neglects it's

1:03:21

basically just don't care or say

1:03:23

things that technically to do but like be

1:03:26

designed to mislead i just think

1:03:28

about shouldn't be allowed i think bush be like an absolute

1:03:30

scandal it's athens and so i think

1:03:32

we can at least move in a direction where

1:03:34

how is non rational persuasion

1:03:37

the

1:03:38

the moscow kind of muted

1:03:41

the powers of kind of argument of these

1:03:43

islands to scan of winning out ah

1:03:45

a traitor

1:03:46

we cancel poop for the wrong things sure

1:03:49

you're suggesting maybe i

1:03:52

was just was young a personal level

1:03:54

there were very provocative as say this morning

1:03:57

by william

1:03:59

duress

1:03:59

oh art would dress of

1:04:02

it it's who argues that dumb

1:04:05

leadership is to

1:04:07

the careful study of how the world works you come to have

1:04:09

convictions and you

1:04:11

live by those convictions and people

1:04:13

value because you're authentic can

1:04:16

you've understood something profound about the

1:04:18

world i like to think that's

1:04:21

good idea so yeah i'm

1:04:23

not suggesting certainly that he should have no

1:04:25

principles and think you know very

1:04:28

strong result principles and you should comes to

1:04:30

them thoughtfully rather than just a

1:04:32

damn thing whatever is in the in the air

1:04:35

and that's really what what he's talking about that

1:04:37

as say i will put a link up to it

1:04:40

it is a motto

1:04:42

the i'm sympathetic to which is song use

1:04:44

weeks now settled america gonna have

1:04:47

to get married now yeah so perfectly

1:04:50

compatible the

1:04:52

meta you know have some view i'm

1:04:54

really defending and when it know it's gonna be like this sector

1:04:57

but the if i have a argument but i think is

1:05:00

decisive against my view of sorts am

1:05:02

i gonna you're correct

1:05:03

what i got like betty some views

1:05:06

i'm oh

1:05:08

that doesn't mean i wonder like to note some violent

1:05:10

revolution to get those use and

1:05:12

acted instead i want place

1:05:14

the

1:05:15

you know i want to achieve and

1:05:17

buyer blasphemy persuading people

1:05:20

who

1:05:21

a walk in and out for involves

1:05:23

going by a number of incremental steps

1:05:26

the

1:05:27

image yeah legacy that's

1:05:29

the kind of attitude than seasons verdict was

1:05:32

the rather lengthy section of the book

1:05:36

where he rests on the yams the

1:05:38

old joe gods

1:05:40

two honors a postcard similarly cider

1:05:42

try again and

1:05:44

no one says you know sometimes know

1:05:46

sometimes if

1:05:49

have been better never to have been born and

1:05:51

the other guys as yeah but whose that lucky not

1:05:53

one and a million in

1:05:56

here as us the question

1:05:59

would

1:05:59

wouldn't future lives and think of ever

1:06:02

told a joke on a contact as hard to believe

1:06:04

but i don't think they saw as survey of is

1:06:06

very appropriate so i mean the i'm

1:06:08

in the lower east side the and out as it

1:06:10

is essentially but it's not it's not

1:06:13

gonna use this one so he wants

1:06:15

you ask the questions should

1:06:17

there's every human life of the

1:06:20

future there are you and

1:06:22

is it possible that there are people living

1:06:25

minds of net negative value or

1:06:27

would be better up there were having the orange and

1:06:30

i found that shocking

1:06:33

in in the following sense if he tried

1:06:35

to find evidence in you have looked at have you looked

1:06:37

at him in a survey happiness survey

1:06:40

survey evidence about people

1:06:42

saw self reported happiness

1:06:44

or satisfaction of various kinds enough

1:06:47

for me the question is it's simpler

1:06:49

than that is economists using

1:06:52

the idea of reveal preference it's

1:06:54

, it's not that hard to end your life

1:06:56

most people don't want to which suggests

1:06:58

that it's net positive positive

1:07:02

if you're religious person it's it's a relatively

1:07:04

easy question to answer but if you're not religious

1:07:06

person is pretty easy what

1:07:09

even

1:07:11

yeah i think this depends crucially

1:07:13

in your city of wellbeing

1:07:15

so economists

1:07:18

normally assume i was known in the

1:07:20

philosophy which says a presence that assessing

1:07:22

the where what's good for you

1:07:24

is getting what you want

1:07:25

fundamentally sound that can we can make that

1:07:29

i mean will have yeah plus there's normally want something

1:07:31

of a more sophisticated like it's

1:07:33

getting what you would want yourself to once

1:07:35

where you ideally well informed and

1:07:38

it was a cruel considered moment instead

1:07:40

we had time to think that thing

1:07:42

billie something about areas kind of what

1:07:46

kind of economists assumes it's

1:07:48

not obvious to me the best the best you it's actually

1:07:51

not my difference you my

1:07:53

, thirds yourself well being is

1:07:56

that well being as this amount of amount conscious experiences

1:07:59

the

1:07:59

conscious experience as like

1:08:02

happiness joy bliss mean

1:08:04

it meaningful moments

1:08:07

and

1:08:09

avoid is negative experiences like

1:08:11

suffering mislead the person ah

1:08:14

you have an alternative view so of

1:08:17

basically i agree that the world looks

1:08:19

of asia if you have effects and satisfaction

1:08:21

do because

1:08:24

i think people yeah

1:08:25

then what we want a cannot go against different

1:08:28

not getting what they want to such a significant

1:08:30

extent that

1:08:33

they think realizing that like negatively that underlies

1:08:37

said you have his other view

1:08:39

it's about what's the ones whose people

1:08:41

house

1:08:42

and you think work the officers

1:08:44

the cartilage was what's

1:08:47

best for them

1:08:48

the not perfectly

1:08:49

in some cases taking these be biased

1:08:52

and , you think well if

1:08:54

from the perspective of evolution where would we

1:08:56

be likely to be biased man

1:08:58

or passages would knock passages would so know

1:09:01

what's best for wellbeing one

1:09:03

k certainly would be against

1:09:05

time because imagine

1:09:08

, there's just hear some subspecies

1:09:10

of humans that

1:09:13

the

1:09:14

andrew my very significant

1:09:16

ways well that

1:09:18

weird yeah

1:09:21

that's some species would do well and

1:09:25

i think it's be plausible the that's the case so that

1:09:27

makes me give like some waitress

1:09:30

argument but not enormous way a

1:09:32

second kind of argument is even some i'm

1:09:36

the cultural evolution as well

1:09:38

where

1:09:40

for you know to pull the in and

1:09:42

of major models editions of these very strong

1:09:44

prohibitionists against attic

1:09:47

ones are lines

1:09:48

why would my is a serious

1:09:51

the

1:09:52

i think a good argument to be like well maybe

1:09:54

people's lives in the past just really bad

1:09:57

and rates to take ones and life

1:09:59

would have been

1:09:59

the high would it not

1:10:01

i'm at least much higher when it not for those so

1:10:03

additions and so that was his cultural evolution

1:10:06

of before i

1:10:08

can say even

1:10:10

if you really wants it was mortally that to do some

1:10:12

snotty so

1:10:14

the

1:10:16

because otherwise rates would be much higher so

1:10:19

basically i think that some evidence that is it's by

1:10:21

no means decisive

1:10:24

you argue that one of the things

1:10:27

you can do to make a future

1:10:29

better or

1:10:31

is to have children and

1:10:33

that flies and in the face

1:10:35

of many people's intuition i thanked us plants

1:10:38

as a mind but but i think many people would find

1:10:40

that the surprising ah

1:10:43

make a case

1:10:46

yeah so

1:10:47

let's just

1:10:49

the beauty of this is to start off with the county

1:10:51

case so

1:10:52

the moment in countries like the u s

1:10:54

people have less kids and they want to have

1:10:56

think they won't have like two point

1:10:58

six an average may have a comprehensive kids

1:11:00

and they say they want south same thing

1:11:03

to stuff why i

1:11:05

as a good movie or saturday's economist

1:11:08

and they have fewer children and says

1:11:11

is wasting my grandma suits they have

1:11:13

fewer children than they say

1:11:15

like that the

1:11:19

and as many reasons i'm fucked

1:11:23

one idea that gang mckenzie as it

1:11:25

is impossible to have children because

1:11:28

i'm of the impacts on climate change

1:11:31

and he is absolutely true that

1:11:34

the children

1:11:35

having a child

1:11:37

will cause more still to be emitted

1:11:39

into the atmosphere because of that existence

1:11:41

of additional past

1:11:43

however i want to say to thanks

1:11:46

firstly

1:11:49

you can nullify that home by offsetting

1:11:51

the event you can nullify it was a hundred times

1:11:53

over the the cost of a child

1:11:56

an illegal for ten thousand pounds this

1:11:58

were like the thousand dollars

1:12:01

and fifteen thousand dollars but saying the united

1:12:03

states per year

1:12:07

by donating to extremely effective

1:12:09

i'm at nonprofits and

1:12:11

you can have a in expectation a ton of c

1:12:13

or two for about zola the for you

1:12:15

increase the cost of raising

1:12:17

a child i bet center of attention

1:12:21

yeah he stands

1:12:22

the getting thousand dollars he spent

1:12:24

sixteen thousand dollars a thousand dollars a

1:12:26

pack for to highly affected sentimental sunsets

1:12:29

the new offset the carbon impact that child's

1:12:32

that thousand times over

1:12:34

oh really pretty safe in

1:12:36

a cigar

1:12:37

you know enormously increase the

1:12:39

cost of having a child

1:12:42

that's the first thing

1:12:43

the second thing is

1:12:46

i can a deeper thing which is the if you're just looking

1:12:48

at the carbon impacts the only looking at one

1:12:50

side of the letter where

1:12:53

people have do things

1:12:55

for our next to the are harmful for the world

1:12:58

like too many carbon emissions the

1:13:00

also do enormous both positive things as well so

1:13:02

because the beaches and this has all kind

1:13:05

of assuming that might be able to benefits

1:13:07

are relatively slow

1:13:09

and it becomes an adult

1:13:11

that ah yeah they can meet

1:13:13

a society the help filled in such a they pay

1:13:15

taxes arms a innovates

1:13:17

they can be models and makes as the

1:13:20

like benjamin ladies who can on

1:13:23

the don't include which protects the a civilization

1:13:25

take it and then then they get

1:13:27

a good friend they

1:13:29

could take offence exactly they can't be

1:13:32

in many ways

1:13:33

and ah

1:13:36

once you look at like both

1:13:38

sides letter i think the

1:13:40

positives were now i'm against the

1:13:42

negatives i mean the final thing is just the esther

1:13:46

people will have sufficiently guidelines i think it's a it's a

1:13:48

benefit for them to but i'm happy that i

1:13:50

was born and was an unlikable

1:13:53

or

1:13:55

the people in the lower east side that you reference

1:13:57

you are wishing they weren't born unlike

1:13:59

any the to pinpoint feel very lucky

1:14:02

the

1:14:04

the

1:14:05

you know one way of thinking well

1:14:07

okay how to the positives and negatives way our

1:14:09

is just to think well the post

1:14:12

been half as many people ever throughout

1:14:15

history they would be being what would

1:14:17

and i was born as the yeah

1:14:21

one person after sixty billion more than one person

1:14:23

as one hundred and ten billion well

1:14:25

i would be a farmer i would not have

1:14:28

anesthetic i would

1:14:30

be walking and twelve hours

1:14:32

a day i

1:14:34

just i would probably be amazon for forces

1:14:37

over an outlaw has you

1:14:39

know freedom the of much

1:14:41

freedom over who i married i

1:14:43

would not be able to travel it

1:14:46

would be a really think about life and

1:14:48

the fact that we the

1:14:51

world today where we have a high material

1:14:53

sounded of living the we have made model

1:14:55

so this that in

1:14:57

significant part numbers game the

1:14:59

fact that been so many people who have

1:15:02

constituted in a net positive way

1:15:04

there was a society and so

1:15:07

one thing i'm certainly not saying is that everyone

1:15:09

should go having as many kids are so i'm

1:15:11

overweight or or certainly not

1:15:14

that the state for get involved all

1:15:16

i'm saying is that

1:15:19

is not bad thing bottling is i think you can be

1:15:21

a good thing my way there are

1:15:23

many other good things you can do you can donate sadly

1:15:26

you can be found here you can have a clear

1:15:29

as impact for this is this is one way i

1:15:31

think of i'm making

1:15:33

well better places to have kids and bring them up

1:15:36

yesterday has been well mccaskill his

1:15:39

book is what we owe the future well

1:15:41

thanks for being part of part santa

1:15:44

influence having the on it's really fun and

1:15:46

it's synchronization instead of i

1:15:48

agree

1:15:55

as he can talk part of the library

1:15:57

of economics the liberty for more he can talk

1:15:59

saudi

1:15:59

initially came

1:16:02

in today's age and , links

1:16:04

and readings were allowed to sit at a conversation

1:16:07

conversation engineer for you can talk as require

1:16:10

i'm your host russ roberts thanks

1:16:12

for listening