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associations across the UK. So

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we've got these kind of

0:55

stereotypes when we talk about

0:57

far-right voters. You've got the like brown

0:59

shirt, angry, neo-Nazi skinhead

1:02

type. He's white. He's

1:04

aggressive. He's angry. He's

1:06

racist. He's a he. Got

1:09

the small town Catholic driven by

1:11

homophobia and climate denialism. You have

1:13

sort of the British intellectual in

1:16

a bow tie and a tweed

1:18

jacket talking about liberty and the

1:20

decline of western civilization at the

1:22

hands of big government. A lot

1:25

of us think about these people when we think of the

1:27

hard right, but here's the thing. As

1:30

we look at national elections and lead

1:33

up to the big European election coming

1:35

in June, we're seeing that

1:37

those stereotypes just don't

1:39

cut it. It turns

1:41

out that the far right is drawing from a much

1:44

more complex and diverse pool of voters.

1:48

So who really votes for the far right and

1:50

why? I'm

1:52

Sarah Wheaton, host of EU Confidential.

1:55

The polls ahead of the European election in June suggest

1:57

that the far right surge could come with the help

1:59

of young students, women,

2:02

even immigrant voters. We've

2:04

been hitting the streets to talk to them about it

2:07

and they seem a bit surprised about

2:09

it themselves that they say they're open

2:11

to pitches from Portugal's SEGA, Kirt Wilder's

2:13

PVV in the Netherlands, or Marine Le

2:16

Pen's National Rally in France. To

2:19

get some perspective, we'll talk to political

2:21

science professor Catherine de Vries. Her

2:23

research focuses on this kind of fight

2:26

for survival mentality when

2:28

education, housing, and healthcare seem to be

2:30

in short supply, the fear of

2:32

missing out can fuel the far right. What

2:35

political parties on the kind of, especially

2:37

on the far right have done, they're

2:39

basically saying, I cannot pay for your

2:41

hospital because I have to pay for

2:43

quote unquote newcomers. We have this fiscal

2:45

burden of immigration. We have to pay

2:47

for other people and therefore we cannot

2:49

pay for you. But first, let's check

2:51

in with my colleagues. Here in the

2:54

studio, I'm joined by Hannah Kochelare, Politico's

2:56

data reporter, as well

2:58

as Eitur Hernandez Morales, our Iberian

3:00

politics specialist. And joining us

3:02

from Berlin is James Angelos, our Germany

3:05

news editor. They were all recently dispatched

3:07

to countries with a growing number of

3:09

atypical far right voters. Let's

3:11

see what they found. Hannah, Eitur,

3:14

James, thank you so much for joining

3:16

me today. We are going to actually

3:18

jump off from what's currently the working

3:21

title of an article that Hannah is

3:23

working on. That's this idea that far

3:25

right voters are not who you

3:28

would expect necessarily. So

3:30

Hannah, broadly, you

3:32

went to the Netherlands, you were trying

3:34

to understand Hirde Velders victory a bit. Tell us

3:36

what you've learned. Yeah, so the

3:39

starting point was actually the Netherlands November

3:41

election, and I saw the exit poll

3:43

figures. And what stood out

3:45

really was that far right voters, there's this

3:48

image of a far right voter, an

3:50

angry, old, white

3:53

man who sits on his

3:55

porch and shouts at people

3:57

walking by. But then if you

3:59

saw the exit poll figures, years, you

4:01

said basically that everyone had voted for

4:04

Wilders. So his voter base was almost

4:06

an exact reflection of Dutch society, the

4:08

same number of women and men that

4:10

the society has had voted for Wilders

4:12

and every age bracket had voted for

4:14

Wilders. So the conclusion appeared

4:16

to be, you might think that you know

4:18

of a right voter, but it's everyone. Really

4:21

interesting. And I heard the last time

4:23

we had you here on the podcast,

4:25

you were talking about the surprisingly strong

4:28

performance of the SEGA party in Portugal.

4:30

And Portugal's history means that in some ways we

4:33

might just be surprised by any sort

4:35

of right wing surge. Can you

4:37

just briefly walk us through that?

4:39

Yeah, so it's a pretty interesting

4:41

phenomenon because this year Portugal is

4:44

celebrating the 50th anniversary of the

4:46

Carnation Revolution, which was this military

4:48

uprising that took place in 1974,

4:50

where they overthrew the four decade

4:52

long authoritarian Stalonovo regime. The

4:55

Portuguese people are really, really proud of this.

4:57

They actually they did a survey recently and

4:59

over half the population considers that it's the

5:01

most important date in their 800

5:03

year history is the 25th of April,

5:06

1974. But paradoxically, you

5:08

have this commemoration of this

5:10

big fight against totalitarianism, and

5:13

then this surge in voting for this

5:15

far right party that openly questions democratic

5:17

rule. So it does create

5:20

a weird conflict within the Portuguese

5:22

people themselves. I was in Lisbon

5:24

for the festivities. And people

5:26

were openly talking about the fact that it

5:28

was a very strange moment for them to

5:30

both celebrate the revolution and also acknowledge that

5:33

maybe its historic values are being forgotten. And

5:35

that's especially important when we take into

5:37

account the exit polls, because in Portugal,

5:39

what we saw was that 25% of

5:42

the people who voted for SEGA were

5:44

aged under 30. And so it

5:47

does suggest that the party is

5:49

gaining particular traction among youth voters.

5:51

And that doesn't necessarily mean that

5:54

the youth are disenchanted with the

5:56

revolution. But it

5:58

does show that there's broad dissatisfaction

6:00

with the status quo and SEGA

6:03

has been able to seize on this idea

6:05

of itself as an alternative to the traditional

6:07

parties. Well, then that

6:09

brings us to James, an

6:11

alternative for Germany. History

6:14

also plays a big role in

6:16

Germany's relationship to far-right parties, but

6:18

we're seeing a surge for the

6:20

IFTY. What's your sense of what's

6:23

going on? The IFTY has been over

6:25

the past few years getting more

6:27

popular in polls, even as they've grown more radical

6:29

and more extreme. And the real sort of

6:31

energy, if you want to put it that way

6:33

in the party, has been among the

6:36

more radical strongholds in the

6:38

east of Germany. But

6:40

must we say that since the beginning of

6:42

this year, the IFTY has seen a slide

6:44

in polls, and that began when

6:47

there was a report by a

6:49

local investigative outlet that uncovered a

6:51

clandestine meeting between right-wing extremists and

6:53

some participants from the IFTY there. And

6:55

they were discussing something they

6:58

called remigration, which is basically deporting

7:00

people who they view as including

7:02

citizens who are not adequately assimilated

7:05

in their estimation. So

7:07

those reports unnerved a lot of

7:09

people, and they sparked huge protests.

7:11

Since then, it's faced one sort

7:14

of crisis after another, and it's seen

7:16

polls. It was something at 23 percent

7:18

at peak last year. It

7:20

seemed far-fetched previously that this party could actually ever

7:22

take real power, but it didn't

7:25

seem so far-fetched anymore all of a sudden,

7:27

and people started to discuss, could we ban

7:29

this party but under the watch of domestic

7:31

intelligence agencies that are tasked with rooting out

7:33

anti-constitutional groups? So Germany has these sort of

7:35

abilities to use these measures to try and

7:37

rein in a party like that. But

7:40

the question is, they've never had to use them before, you know,

7:42

when they work, and this was the debate at the time. So

7:45

speaking of law enforcement, the party's

7:47

lead candidate in the European elections

7:49

is also coming under scrutiny as well.

7:52

So one of the scandals that has

7:54

been affecting the IFT of late has

7:56

been the allegations surrounding Maximilian

7:58

Krah, the top candidate for

8:01

the party in the upcoming

8:03

European election. Browse Assistance was

8:05

accused by authorities of being

8:07

a spy for China and

8:09

earlier this week as part

8:11

of that investigation sensibly across

8:13

offices were raided by police

8:15

as were those of his

8:17

assistant. The crime itself is

8:19

under plenary investigation inside Germany

8:21

for allegedly having accepted payments

8:23

from China and Russia and

8:25

now the question for the

8:27

party is how they will

8:29

deal with. These allegations how much

8:31

it will continue to hurt their performance

8:33

and polls and they are keeping cry

8:35

as their top candidate but there are

8:38

also attempting to keep him out of

8:40

the spotlight and they want him to

8:42

keep a low profile. So this issue

8:44

it's doesn't as they say damage their

8:47

electoral campaigning. And you just went

8:49

to the tournament debarge far as big

8:51

as day rally and where people freaking

8:53

out about these charges against cross. Know.

8:56

I. Would to Magdeburg a few days.

8:59

After. The allegations against

9:01

cross assistant mermaid public. I went

9:03

to a citizen Dialogue. And

9:07

there were few Iraqi politicians and they were

9:09

their supporters and sort of and of dance

9:11

hall in Magdeburg. They were kind of a

9:13

mostly older crowd in attendance and there sipping

9:16

on beer and some soup to asparagus soup

9:18

and they were. You know they listen to

9:20

these opening com as soon as this is

9:23

the first thing one of the as a

9:25

politician said was you know we wish that

9:27

makes me cry was here basically expressions. Of

9:29

support which got some audience applause.

9:33

And then they went on to

9:35

basically say that these allegations were

9:37

part of the serve Grand conspiracy

9:39

of the state in the media.

9:42

That. Are targeting to the eye of

9:44

the members in order to foil

9:46

the i have These rise if

9:48

you were there p Walking sort

9:50

of parallel universe. Absolute distrust of

9:52

the mainstream media spare received their

9:54

information. what's happening to me through

9:57

these social media networks that have

9:59

it is. Dude and very apocalyptic vision

10:01

of what's happening this country. If you are they

10:03

are You would think that the in the end

10:05

is near. Sense of what were the

10:07

issues that. People. In the crowd were

10:09

asking about. They. Were concerned with

10:11

their own. A range of issues

10:14

in their worldview. Industry is is

10:16

leaving Germany because of climate policies

10:18

the country's about to go into

10:20

or terminal decline and less the

10:22

I have to compensate. That's the

10:25

issue. The hop on a as

10:27

as mundane as lowering taxes to

10:29

being themselves the victims of a

10:31

concerted persecution campaign. It's so. it's

10:33

really a parallel worlds. And is

10:36

there anything else you learn about what

10:38

is driving as day voters? This.

10:40

Anti establishment fervor is what seems

10:42

to me of the main drive

10:45

of support at least among the

10:47

core. Ita three,

10:49

they're viewed. You hear echoes of that in

10:51

the countries that you've been reporting from. Certainly

10:54

yes, even sell to them to try and

10:56

signs. People who had voted for a pistol

10:58

this that's a liter of death and

11:00

I'm thirty two bit of a special party.

11:03

There's only one number, it's him. so

11:05

he was hard to find a rally or

11:07

something such as basically went to a look

11:09

at it and then spoke to everyone

11:11

I came across to ask and that are

11:13

they had voted for him and if

11:15

so, why and that very intimidating type of

11:18

reporting. I applaud you for doing it yes

11:20

that it did come across quite a few

11:22

people who had voted for him or not

11:24

voted for him that would afforded for in

11:26

his they had voted because there are also

11:28

very many non voters. The people I spoke

11:30

to our however they often said that things

11:32

need to be done very differently from the

11:34

the to have been done. So.

11:36

Far in the cancer him just a polar

11:39

opposites of what has been done so far.

11:41

And. Besides that, of course the Paradise

11:43

Migration above all I do or migration

11:46

is also driving some voters imported aloe

11:48

are not my Greece and kind of

11:50

in the asylum seeker sense, but an

11:52

influx of new residents and people perceive

11:55

it as taking things that might be

11:57

there right. Yeah, so in Portugal it's

11:59

a bit. more nuanced. The migrants that

12:01

are coming in, it's less a reaction

12:04

of, oh gosh, these people are coming

12:06

to take our jobs. They're doing mainly

12:08

low skilled either textile worker, they're working

12:10

in the agricultural sector. So they are

12:13

actually a very much needed workforce. The

12:16

main issue is they're not being well

12:18

integrated. So there are concerns about that,

12:20

about how exactly people will fit into

12:23

Portuguese society, given that it's historically been

12:25

a country that's been so poor that

12:27

it hasn't really been taking in migrants

12:30

until now. What I

12:32

would say, though, echoing the points that James

12:34

and Hannah were making, is that the rise

12:36

of support for the far right is generally

12:39

driven by a broad unhappiness with the quality

12:41

of life. And one of the regions where

12:43

the party grew the most in the in

12:45

the El Garve, one of the routine complaints

12:48

is that they have been asking for years

12:50

for a new hospital and it's been promised

12:52

by successive administrations and nothing happens. Their

12:55

public services have really taken a

12:57

hit. And meanwhile, housing prices have

12:59

skyrocketed because the area is so

13:01

popular among wealthy European retirees in

13:04

particular. So you have this

13:06

perfect storm of people who are being

13:08

priced out of their traditional way of

13:10

life. Simultaneously, what they view as what

13:12

their villages or their cities traditionally look

13:14

like is changing very rapidly. You have

13:16

an influx of particularly Bangladeshi migrants and

13:19

you have a government in Lisbon who

13:21

they feel has never taken

13:23

the least bit of interest in them.

13:25

So the vote for SEGA is,

13:28

I would say, less driven by any nostalgia

13:30

for the dictatorship and more just absolute

13:32

fury at the mainstream parties. And if

13:34

you look at the exit polls, you

13:37

see that reflected in the fact that

13:39

all non-traditional parties actually enjoyed a pretty

13:41

substantial boost in this election. It's just

13:43

SEGA got a little bit more. And

13:46

Hannah, you spoke to somebody who said

13:48

a similar phenomenon was happening in the

13:50

Netherlands. Yeah, I spoke to

13:52

a researcher who pointed out the same

13:54

thing. So he identified several categories of

13:57

voters For Wilder's party. It's

14:00

largely or yes I used to vote

14:02

conservative, birds are now shifting their votes

14:04

to Willis and then there's poorer areas

14:07

as well which used to vote socialist

14:09

and now voted building. And then they're

14:11

also the areas particularly areas very close

14:13

to cities who aren't kind of seeing

14:15

the impacts of the city's as league

14:18

or larger and groom kind of bleed

14:20

into the suburban area surrounded by to

14:22

see more of the impact of city

14:24

life really and or day to day

14:26

life. And there is a sphere indeed

14:29

that the rising costs. Are kinda making

14:31

them job then decide a letter. So

14:33

they see themselves or as at

14:36

risk of losing out. Also, young

14:38

people who, like I already mentioned,

14:40

consistently raised the housing issue which

14:42

is also an issue that's builders

14:45

can be non. They said they

14:47

have a terrible difficulty finding a

14:49

house they invariably tied at to.

14:52

Immigrants Yes Oh honey you talk to

14:54

some people who specifically brought up this

14:56

kind of my Greece and housing link.

14:58

Yeah so no one site that was

15:00

there was a young guy he'd just

15:02

it's first ever vote with last November

15:05

and it went to buildings and he

15:07

insisted that he's not a racist. In

15:09

fact he he repeatedly said dad's face

15:11

at some of the statement that old

15:13

as as me throughout the years the

15:15

his gut reaction as this is not

15:17

my prime minister I don't identify with

15:19

this guy but but I do once.

15:22

The. Political leads to do something about

15:24

the housing crisis and I should get

15:26

priority access to a house not immigrants

15:28

living available for he was either one

15:31

was there than it was Also a

15:33

young and of woman of a single

15:35

mother who I spoke to before she

15:38

said that have caused by being broken

15:40

up with her partner for years now

15:42

she's still living with him because she

15:44

has managed to find a house with

15:47

her kids. She was standing in of

15:49

my city residential area and she pointed

15:51

to. The building blocks behind the square that

15:53

was standing on and said he says okay with

15:55

all of those houses are being sells it at

15:58

all and who to the logo. The

16:00

Point: They get a house. I can get a

16:02

house. and I've lived here all my life. It's.

16:05

Fasting for me to hear that because

16:07

we hear very similar things in Portugal,

16:10

despite the fact that again Portugal's a

16:12

very poor country and the idea that

16:14

somehow migrants are coming in and taking

16:16

up housing is. Laughable. They

16:18

can't afford the housing. everyone's being priced

16:21

out, but they're not being pressed up

16:23

in the migrants, been pressed up by

16:25

wealthy Northern Europeans buying properties in cities

16:27

like Lisbon or in the Algarve. It

16:29

didn't matter to you. I think the

16:32

narrative of decline is t for all

16:34

of these sore movements, and whether that's

16:36

economic decline or cultural decline, demographic decline.

16:38

I do think that especially if you

16:41

go to the ideologue of his movements

16:43

and a core philosophies, it's all existential

16:45

struggle, existential survival for you and German

16:47

terms. The focus of they would say

16:50

the people are under attack from all

16:52

of these larger force is right and

16:54

that could be economic but it can

16:56

be other things to. And there

16:58

are some social issues that

17:00

are certain animating as day

17:03

rhetoric something's happening and kindergartens

17:05

I read in your article

17:08

about Ass Masterpiece and Rams.

17:10

What's going on? One of the questions

17:12

that also grab my attention. that nine

17:14

also caught. One woman stood up, a

17:16

mother she later tom issues another eight.

17:18

She expresses and the kids today are

17:20

learning nothing in schools and this begins

17:22

with the sexualization of our children and

17:24

in a master based in rooms and

17:26

in preschools and of what what is

17:28

this? I looked it up and you

17:30

know there was actually one incident in

17:32

one school where there was some space

17:34

the preschool had set aside for children

17:36

to sort of discover their their own

17:38

bodies and there was immediately. have condemned

17:41

by everyone in this particular school to

17:43

get away but you know is kind

17:45

of the would be the story or

17:47

kernel of truth in something and then

17:49

it will be blown up into the

17:52

sort of again apocalyptic liquids that our

17:54

schools are just becoming a ramp in

17:56

places where they are being sexualizing that

17:58

this person bullies disarray alternative sources

18:00

of information that this is an

18:03

acute existential threat and sees

18:05

it as a moral purpose to fight against

18:07

it. And the IFT has like stated, you

18:09

know, they will pick up that mantle. We're

18:11

protecting our children against these sort of forces.

18:13

They'll say, look what's happening to our country.

18:16

Industry is leaving. The hordes of asylum seekers, their

18:18

words are coming into the borders and look what

18:21

our government is focusing on. They passed a law

18:23

to make it easier to change your gender which

18:26

happened a few weeks ago. And that is the

18:28

kind of message if you have an immigration background

18:30

from a society in which more socially

18:32

conservative, you know, you might find that

18:34

message appealing. It's curious

18:36

that it is an ongoing theme. It's

18:38

people who see their society changing no

18:41

longer particularly think that they fit into it

18:43

and they're worried. They're worried about being left

18:46

behind. And so they're turning

18:48

to alternatives that may not even necessarily

18:50

match their ideology, but

18:52

certainly match their frustration with the existing

18:54

system. This has been

18:56

a super varied conversation. I want

18:58

to end with Hannah bringing things

19:00

close to home here in Belgium.

19:02

We also have federal elections in

19:05

Belgium in June and the Vloms

19:07

Belongs, a Flemish interest party maybe

19:09

kind of equivalent to some of these other far right

19:11

parties that we've been talking about. They're expected

19:13

to do pretty well, right? They are expected

19:16

to do very well, yes. Particularly

19:19

if you add that up to the

19:21

Flemish nationalists of the NVA, together they

19:23

could get close to majority in Flanders.

19:27

They have been looking at the

19:29

Netherlands with interest, of course. They do

19:31

identify with some of what Wilder

19:34

says, not everything. Their campaign slogan

19:36

is also quite similar, you know,

19:38

it's not Belgian Flemish people

19:40

first, just like Wilder's

19:42

campaign with Dutch people again on

19:45

number one. And if

19:47

you look at people who think they might

19:49

vote for him, one thing has stood out

19:51

and that's also that young people again are

19:53

likely to vote for them, but not young

19:56

people as a whole, mostly young

19:58

men in the youngest age background. I

20:00

think about 30% of young men

20:02

said they were likely to vote for them as

20:05

interest compared with less than 10% of young women.

20:07

I mean, we've been talking about how

20:10

sometimes these votes defy our expectations, but

20:12

I mean, in some ways, what you're

20:14

saying, Hannah, reminds me of just sort

20:16

of the skinhead archetype. The angry white

20:18

guy who takes some of his frustrations

20:20

out politically on maybe minority groups. James,

20:23

is there a sign that that is sort of a

20:25

sentiment that Afte is drawing on? The far

20:27

right in Germany has gotten a lot better

20:29

at packaging in recent years and the skinhead

20:32

look, you'll still see it out there, but

20:34

it's not, you know, you will have somebody

20:36

who looks like they belong in a coffee

20:38

shop in Berlin, just doesn't look

20:41

out of the ordinary in any way,

20:43

who will espouse you and will save

20:45

these things in a way that doesn't

20:47

immediately come out at you as extreme,

20:49

but then if you think about it,

20:51

is just as extreme as ever. So

20:53

the fact that they would appeal to

20:55

younger voters isn't so far fetched. So

20:58

I just wanted to add more

21:00

broadly, the researchers that I spoke

21:02

to were really keen on insisting

21:04

that we as yet do not

21:07

see evidence of Europe's youth going

21:09

far right. They may

21:11

vote like that in specific elections,

21:13

but that has more to do

21:15

with voting patterns versus ideology. The

21:18

examples that they gave me was two

21:20

trends. The first is what we saw

21:22

in the Netherlands and essentially if most of

21:24

the population votes for a party, the youth will vote

21:26

for that party too. They tend to not

21:28

have a strong opinion and so they'll follow

21:31

the broader trend and there's kind of a

21:33

copycat effect. And then the second

21:35

one is just the draw of a newer party. Basically

21:38

what these academics were urging was to

21:40

just keep in mind that these trends

21:42

need to be understood in much longer

21:44

term perspectives and that we should not

21:46

necessarily think that, you know, all our

21:48

kids are now fascists. A lot of

21:50

them are just unhappy and dazzled by

21:52

bright shiny new things. And

21:54

just because the youth is more interested

21:56

in non-traditional parties, these non-traditional parties tend

21:59

to grow. Yeah, it goes back

22:01

to what we saw with the exit polls

22:03

in Portugal. All non-traditional parties grew. SEGA did

22:05

particularly well because it knew how to communicate

22:07

with the youth. So that meant using social

22:09

media, using TikTok, using all these things that

22:11

let them build that bond very, very quickly.

22:14

All right, well, TikTok was one of the things on

22:16

my list to talk about that we did not get

22:18

to. So you'll have to tune into a future episode

22:20

of EU Confidential. But for now, I, Tara, Hannah, James,

22:22

thanks so much for joining me. Thanks, Sarah. Thank

22:25

you. Thank you. After

22:28

the break, we'll get some insight from Professor

22:30

Catherine de Ries from Bocconi University in Milan.

22:33

We're going to find out what centuries-old olive

22:35

groves in Apulia have to do with the far

22:37

right. Stay with us. It's

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Banking Group has championed social housing

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provides finance, expertise, and

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guidance to more than 340 housing

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Banking Group's commitment to helping

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Britain prosper. That's

24:00

why Lloyd's Banking Group is calling

24:02

for one million more homes to be

24:04

made available for social rent over the

24:07

next decade. I'm

24:10

now joined by Catherine DeVries, you're a

24:12

professor of political science and the dean

24:15

of international affairs at Bocconi University in

24:17

Milan. Thank you for joining us, Catherine.

24:19

Well, thank you for having me. So one

24:21

of the things that caught our eye

24:23

when we were looking for someone to

24:25

bring on to talk about what fuels

24:27

the far right is a research project

24:30

that you're working on. It's related to

24:32

economic hardship and its relationship to political

24:34

support there. Can you tell us a

24:36

little more about it? Yeah,

24:38

so I think that what you saw, and

24:40

I think that was also of the conversations

24:42

from different European countries, is that actually the

24:44

far right is getting a broader, let's say,

24:47

profile among voters than we've seen in the

24:49

past, where in the past it was kind

24:51

of your angry white male, not

24:53

to mean any offense, but that's usually the

24:55

kind of profile that we saw. There

24:57

are angry white males in many of our lives who we love,

24:59

so it's fine. Actually,

25:02

so now it's much broader. One element

25:04

that we see is that actually people

25:07

are increasingly concerned about the future. So

25:09

it might actually be manifested economic hardship.

25:11

We saw that, for example, in the

25:13

kind of consequence of the war in

25:15

Ukraine, that gas prices went up and

25:18

that the cost of living crisis

25:20

started. In many European countries, but it's

25:22

also the fear of that happening in

25:24

your life. So it might not necessarily

25:26

be that you're already kind of feeling

25:28

that you're squeezed economically,

25:31

but you just fear that that's going

25:33

to happen in the future. So I

25:35

think that's providing a breeding ground for

25:37

far right politicians that kind of reach,

25:39

let's say, the politics of doom when

25:42

it comes to the existing established

25:44

elites are not really listening to

25:46

you or taking your concerns seriously,

25:48

so we would have to have a change and

25:51

we know how to kind of bring you more

25:53

prosperity or bring back kind of the good old

25:55

days where everything used to be better and more

25:57

secure. I

26:00

think it's sort of a definitional issue that we struggle

26:02

with sometimes even in our newsroom. You

26:04

have populist, but not all populists are

26:06

necessarily on the far right, and then

26:08

you can also kind of have very

26:11

conservative people who are or are not

26:13

very economically conservative. So how would you

26:15

kind of sort through some of these different

26:17

movements? So usually the way we

26:19

think about populist parties, and as you rightfully

26:21

say, they can ideologically be on the left

26:23

or on the right. What kind

26:25

of unites these two types of

26:28

parties, you know, like now what we see, Le Pen

26:30

in France or Gédville is in my own country of

26:32

birth and Dutch by origin. So I

26:34

think what unites these populists on the left

26:36

and the right is that they are anti-establishment.

26:38

So they basically tell you that the existing

26:40

elite is not really taking care

26:42

of your needs. They are

26:45

representing a people against an other,

26:47

and that the other might change.

26:50

So on the left we often see that the

26:52

other are, let's say, big banks,

26:54

capitalists, think back to the kind of 99

26:57

versus 1 percent. But

26:59

on the populist right we often see that

27:01

the other is an immigrant or is people

27:03

who are from different ethnicities. And

27:05

then what you're kind of talking about, well,

27:07

is there then maybe the surge that we're

27:09

seeing now ahead of the European parliamentary elections

27:11

and in domestic politics is kind of

27:14

the, let's say, far right doing well. And

27:16

the way that we use the term far

27:18

right as kind of academics is

27:20

that it's a kind of umbrella term

27:22

for these populist right parties. So they're

27:24

kind of anti-immigrant and anti-establishment and have

27:26

kind of a different style, but they

27:29

could also include more extreme factions that

27:31

actually might want to undermine democracy in

27:33

the long run. And why

27:35

we call it far right is that

27:37

because many of these political parties have

27:39

these different wings and they're definitely not

27:42

going to tell you ahead of the

27:44

election that they might be kind of

27:46

dismantling part of the political system or

27:48

maybe wanting to kind of effect to

27:50

the judiciary that we've seen, of course,

27:52

in Hungary or so recently in Poland.

27:54

So that's why there's some conceptual,

27:56

let's say, unclarity and that has

27:58

to do also. with the kind

28:01

of strategic choices of these parties

28:03

by trying to present themselves as

28:05

a more normalized version than perhaps

28:07

maybe extreme right parties in the

28:09

past. And with extreme right, we

28:11

usually mean parties that really kind

28:13

of reject core aspects of democracy.

28:15

And how does the reality on the ground

28:18

affect their campaigns? So

28:20

I think what's quite interesting that a lot

28:22

of these parties, maybe with some exceptions, that

28:24

would, for example, be Le Pen's party in

28:27

France, actually are not that old.

28:30

They're fairly recent. So these are not necessarily

28:32

parties that have strong connections to the ground

28:34

in the way that we would think that,

28:36

you know, mainstream parties like social democrats or

28:38

Christian democrats would have. So what they often

28:40

do is that they use a lot of,

28:42

like, that's the best drink, using a lot

28:44

of social media and garnering support. So

28:46

then how do you do that? Well, often by

28:49

using more extreme language, presenting a lot

28:51

of issues as a crisis that's a

28:53

very effective narrative in order to garner

28:55

kind of public interest. But it doesn't

28:57

necessarily mean that everybody that votes for

29:00

them is always hurting, as I was

29:02

saying before. So it's sometimes it's not

29:04

even that people are actually feeling economic

29:06

hardship or actually feeling kind of threatened,

29:08

but they just fear that that's going

29:10

to happen in the future. Or

29:13

they fear that they're going to be, have to kind

29:15

of, let's say, pay for the climate transition or pay

29:17

for Ukraine accession or these kind of things in the

29:19

future. So I think what those parties do

29:21

is that they often kind of are pretty

29:24

able to mobilize fears and amplify

29:26

them and connect the dots in

29:28

people's minds and make it to,

29:30

you know, what people might think

29:33

is a coherent response to

29:35

today's problems and today's uncertainty.

29:39

And another thing that we sort of grappled

29:41

with and that we heard my colleagues who

29:43

have gone out and talked to voters who

29:45

are finding themselves sympathetic to far-right candidates is

29:48

kind of questions of race. And

29:50

we heard from several people basically say, I'm

29:53

not racist, but I think these

29:55

outsiders, these migrants, are coming in

29:57

and taking my housing. One

30:00

of my colleagues even talk to somebody

30:02

who is of mixed heritage as you

30:04

like. I know it's kind of bad,

30:06

but I really like your mother's Does

30:08

your research can give us any insight

30:10

into maybe people feeling guilty about their

30:12

support. for the party's. Know. Maybe the

30:14

guilty party. Would have to ask individuals as

30:17

your colleagues have already done but I think

30:19

what is really the case is that we

30:21

have to be very careful to saying that

30:23

all these people would score extremely high on

30:25

some six and a full big spiel about

30:27

my research. So that down in Italy but

30:29

also in the Netherlands also in the Uk.

30:32

What we've seen actually in recent years I

30:34

this who was stared eat or through the

30:36

fact that we are kind of in Europe

30:38

facing low growth economies that are aging and

30:40

a lot of spending is going to pensions

30:42

and health care of there's less support for

30:45

public. Services keeping week's episode could be public

30:47

housing, could be public transport, could be schooling,

30:49

could be know a lot of different things

30:51

that people can face in their everyday lives.

30:53

He could be the number policemen on the

30:55

three to to try. And what political

30:57

parties on the kind of especially on the

30:59

far right have done is they've kind of

31:01

link those two things together. So they're basically

31:04

saying i cannot pay for your hospital. Because

31:06

I have to pay for quote unquote

31:08

newcomers coming into the country. it's but

31:10

they leave. our is the entire story

31:12

about immigrants actually be much more entrepreneur

31:14

all and trading, growth, etc. That's not

31:16

part of their story but their stories

31:18

very much like i can spend money

31:20

only one. So I think that the

31:22

current problems of where you're feeling that

31:24

you are a waiting list for house,

31:26

a waiting list for a hospital treatment

31:28

that you're not. you know have to

31:30

walk very far from your public transport.

31:32

Connections are the trains and are running

31:34

by well. That that is between due

31:36

to. the fact that we have a fiscal

31:39

burden of immigration you have to pay

31:41

for other people and therefore we cannot

31:43

pay for you and then it is

31:45

not something that may be is really

31:47

a people's has but political parties will

31:49

be make that when they connect the

31:51

dots and boot might get people into

31:53

a situation where there are three quit

31:55

receptive of messages three people first it

31:57

was clear drills miss a trade or

32:00

should first come for natives and then they

32:02

think, oh, maybe that's not so good to kind

32:04

of be supporting, but they are making these kind

32:06

of links almost implicitly because they're seeing

32:09

a lot of that rhetoric from the far right

32:11

and that's been quite effective. I'm

32:13

not going to make a normative judgment about that,

32:15

but what I mean is in terms of strategically

32:17

effective for the far right strategy

32:19

in order to actually garner support

32:21

among those that might not be

32:23

traditionally people that would maybe

32:25

vote for the far right when you would ask them

32:27

straight out. And another thing

32:30

that we discussed in our panel with

32:32

the reporters who were reporting on the

32:34

streets is that in many of the

32:36

elections that we've had recently, many outsider

32:38

parties, whether they're on the left or

32:41

the right, are doing well. Is there something

32:43

that sort of tips whether a

32:45

disaffected voter is going to flip left

32:47

or right? Your reporters are

32:50

very right. What we've really seen over the

32:52

last 30 years or so is that

32:54

political center is weakening. So social

32:56

democratic parties, Christian democratic parties, liberals

32:59

that would command easily 80,

33:02

85% of the vote, let's say in

33:04

the 1980s, are maybe commanding 50% of

33:06

the vote now. So you're very right

33:08

that like challenger parties, i.e. parties that

33:10

have not traditionally been really successful in

33:13

systems, are doing quite well in many

33:15

European countries. And as you also

33:17

say, they can be on the left and the right.

33:19

So what we saw in the financial crisis, we saw

33:21

quite a lot of emerging, especially in Southern Europe of

33:24

the left, kind of far left parties doing well.

33:26

Now we're talking quite a lot about

33:29

immigration, and that's been really kind of on

33:31

top of mine. So I think one key

33:33

factor is what is the election about? So

33:35

is the election about kind of the economy

33:37

or is it about immigration? But

33:39

I think the more subtle element, and that's what

33:41

we've really been seeing in recent years, and I

33:43

think that gives a little bit of a, let's

33:45

say, an edge for more kind of right-wing challengers

33:48

is that they're actually connecting those two things. So

33:50

they're basically saying, like, in your life, you're not

33:52

getting all these public services. Not means that you're

33:55

like the poorest of the poorest, but you're not

33:57

getting Your fair share of

33:59

governance. Resources or Subway Your.

34:01

Kind. Of left behind and they're

34:03

linking Done. To immigration and I think

34:05

that works quite well because then you get

34:07

people who otherwise might have been more inclined

34:09

to vote on the left to go to

34:11

the right. I do think that we also

34:13

shit remember that yeah we see of far

34:16

right turn but we also see amongst. Many

34:18

young people turned towards more green parties

34:20

are more progressive. Parties. When it comes

34:22

to to the climate, so. One thing that I

34:24

find a little confusing are counterintuitive as

34:26

I mean we've just been through. The

34:29

crazy five years we've had this pandemic,

34:31

we have war right on your sport

34:33

or people are really worried about the

34:36

U S. Doing. Something crazy

34:38

under Donald Trump. So I

34:40

would think now a campaign

34:42

that's promising stability would be

34:44

appealing. Yeah. So I think

34:47

that's a great question to be birthers. I've

34:49

been asking myself that card a lot. It's

34:51

you go back in history. That's why you

34:53

often see right so that if there is

34:56

a huge kind of event happening bachelor and

34:58

crisis happening that people will go actually back

35:00

to. The center was safe which would be

35:02

these conservative social democrats and and liberals but

35:05

in recent years we've really seen that and

35:07

I think partly that is because be seen.

35:09

A long legacy of episode aired is telling

35:11

a lot of people including young people that

35:14

mainstream at least as you are not. A

35:16

good and ten will be deal with all

35:18

six and. With kind of governing very

35:20

well that actually these parties have been

35:22

very effective at using crisis barriers as

35:25

a way to illustrate that a change

35:27

would actually be good so I eat

35:29

and not so themselves and to sell

35:31

themselves a whiskey option. but as the

35:33

A both it can be very effective

35:35

at dealing with the crisis. So we've

35:37

seen that for example in the way

35:39

that migrant boats is seen as a

35:41

crisis and they are than the current

35:43

crisis manager that could do with it.

35:45

We even saw it in Kobe by

35:47

kind of criticizing the way vaccines. were

35:49

working you know etc as saying that this

35:52

is the bad response another example of kind

35:54

of my own research has been and of

35:56

a big plant based epidemic that happen in

35:58

the south of italy Xilela

36:01

which was a bacteria that was in

36:04

the period actually in a time where you would think

36:06

that your way of living and your daily bread is

36:09

being under threat. Italian voters

36:11

in Buria in this southern region

36:13

of Italy did not move back to

36:15

their kind of government parties or the regional

36:18

incumbent but actually moved to the far right

36:20

as a response. So in recent years we

36:22

actually have seen the opposite of what probably

36:24

has been true for decades that

36:27

people are not swinging to the center or not

36:29

to kind of let's say parties that have had

36:31

government responsibility for long term in crisis that

36:34

are really moving to something else and

36:36

I think part of the reason for

36:38

that is that populism has been now

36:40

so normalized that people are increasingly distrustful

36:43

of governments being actually able to cope.

36:45

Alright, well I think we'll leave it there. Thank

36:47

you so much for being here Catherine Jibrize. Well

36:49

thank you Sarah so much for giving me the tune. Thanks

36:54

for listening today as we impact

36:56

the surprising motivations driving potential far

36:58

right voters. I

37:00

just want to express particular appreciation

37:02

for you lending us your ears

37:04

during this long holiday weekend around

37:07

much of Europe and especially with

37:09

the heavy competition that we're getting

37:11

from Eurovision Song Contest. And

37:18

if you appreciate European politics as much as

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you appreciate European pop music then we hope

37:23

you'll follow EU Confidential on your favorite podcast

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Christina Gonzalez, Politico's executive producer for

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37:39

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