0:01

john dickerson in washington and this week

0:03

on face the nation with one hundred

0:05

days to go ahead of the midterm elections

0:07

democrats revive a tax and spending

0:10

package and hope voters will

0:12

reward those posts

0:15

last , saw a surprise development

0:17

in the protracted build back federer saga

0:20

west virginia sen joe manchin

0:22

who seemed opposed to a sweeping package

0:24

reversed course enjoyed his fellow

0:27

democrats to support them economic bills

0:29

including hundreds of billions of dollars

0:31

in tax increases increases

0:34

and the well aimed at aimed health

0:37

care costs and combating climate

0:39

change will talk with him and get the deal

0:41

p perspective on the bill from pennsylvania

0:43

republican senator pennsylvania toomey office

0:47

as we had more dreary economic theories

0:49

the fed economic interest rates and

0:52

the economy shrank for and second street

0:54

corner gleason is that a forty

0:56

year high but the job market remains

0:58

strong but gas prices have

1:00

dropped president's , a

1:03

dozen so intrusive soon we'll

1:05

see what minneapolis dozen reserve president

1:07

bill has cari has finally

1:10

the face the recent political panel and the

1:12

cbs news battleground treasure pool

1:14

or fact will have an estimate

1:16

on where the race for control of the house stance

1:18

plus it's

1:20

all just ahead

1:38

the morning and welcome to face the nation margaret

1:40

his office week we've got a lot

1:42

to get to today and we begin

1:44

with the news that president biden is experiencing

1:47

a rebound case of cove with most likely

1:49

due to his taking the drug packs love

1:51

it he has returned isolation

1:53

but took but took yesterday

1:56

a bunch you're right you're just

1:58

deposits one

1:59

the water

2:04

although the president said that the rebound

2:07

cases do happen with a small minority

2:09

of folks the actual number is difficult to track

2:11

and estimates vary on just

2:13

how many packs livid users are affected

2:16

another democrat who is recovering from cove

2:18

it is west virginia sen joe manchin

2:21

he's been negotiating with senate majority leader

2:23

chuck schumer on the inflation reduction

2:26

act and the final agreement was made

2:28

in assume call democrats say

2:30

the bill would reduce the deficit by three

2:32

hundred billion dollars revenue

2:34

would come from a minimum corporate tax rate

2:36

expanded iris taxes for smith

2:39

and by tightening of the so called carried interest

2:41

loophole that benefits some investment

2:43

managers the bill would also

2:45

make the largest investment largest investment climate

2:48

change in us history nearly

2:50

three hundred and seventy billion dollars will go

2:52

to new tax credits for renewable forms

2:54

of electricity electric vehicles

2:57

and grants to automakers to increase

2:59

efficiency the healthcare

3:01

the bill would keep the affordable care act

3:03

premiums from increasing and camp

3:05

out of pocket prescription drug costs

3:07

for medicare recipients at two thousand

3:10

dollars per year medicare will

3:12

also be able to directly negotiate

3:14

prices with drug companies reducing

3:16

costs we

3:18

go now to west virginia democrat joe

3:21

manchin senator welcome hope

3:23

you're feeling better from the cove id ah

3:25

let me start with of whether herbs on thanks for

3:27

having me appreciate it i

3:29

let me start with something you said back in

3:32

twenty ten in the debate when you are

3:34

running for senate here's what you said i

3:36

don't think during the time of recession you

3:38

as with any the taxes or increase any taxes

3:41

so that's become they are a beer republican

3:44

colleagues favorite quote to roll out now

3:46

that you've made this agreement with ah

3:48

chuck schumer that has a tax peace

3:50

to it why do change her mind

3:53

yeah i didn't change my not my mind i've never

3:55

change at all this is fighting inflation this is

3:57

all about the the absolute horrible

4:00

position the people were in now because of

4:02

the us inflation com the

4:04

be gasoline whether be surprising

4:06

whether be energy pricing this around energy mostly

4:09

driving these high inflation this is gonna

4:11

do take care of that because this is aggressively

4:14

producing more energy to get more supplies

4:16

to get the prices down that's what we're doing that

4:19

would embrace taxes john

4:21

the characters word with corporate tax in america

4:24

and twenty

4:25

they haven't seen before the republican telescope

4:27

was thirty five percent

4:29

they cut it a twenty one percent

4:31

fourteen percent reduction all

4:33

the people i know are paying twenty one percent

4:35

or more

4:36

although even larger corporations but some

4:39

of the largest corporations have a billion

4:41

dollars of value more

4:42

don't even want to pay the minimum of fifteen percent

4:45

so this is an issue was hired as is basically

4:47

close there's a difference

4:49

in closing a loophole saw not raising

4:51

any taxes i never thought of people

4:53

want payment least twenty one let me ask

4:55

you about i don't know why i mean we went

4:58

though , of them as into on of raising quiet

5:00

okay so i nursed him to say my closing

5:02

loopholes but the the republican criticism

5:05

which attaches to what you said and twenty ten is

5:07

when you increase taxes by

5:09

closing loopholes you hurt supply

5:12

and during inflation you want inflation you of supply

5:15

so even though this might not be a tax

5:17

increase relative to previous raise the

5:20

taxes for certain companies will go up

5:22

which will make them produce more so the theory

5:24

goes and that will hurt in place

5:27

let me just say this joint in the last two years

5:30

over the massive record profits across

5:32

the board the largest corporations

5:34

massive record profits and it's been

5:36

the lowest capital expenditure in the last

5:38

two years so that didn't drive at what

5:41

they've all told me was we

5:43

want security we want may have some type

5:45

of of a pathway force in permitting

5:47

and regulations their strangling

5:49

us and this is what we're doing we're streamlining

5:52

the regulations of people have to live within

5:55

the basically accelerating how we get things

5:57

to market how quickly can produce things

5:59

we can basically produce more energy and

6:02

how we can develop more technology

6:04

and using that for our benefit we're

6:06

talking about also batteries for electric

6:09

cars if you want to get a discount on

6:11

electric car buying an easy

6:13

the battery better be made in america

6:15

i better be source in north america a

6:17

better be process your republican

6:19

colleagues think you and chuck schumer did something

6:21

underhanded by essentially it

6:23

looked like there wasn't going to be anything big

6:25

past and then set and then you changed

6:27

course work out something was schumer center

6:31

corn and the republican from texas said

6:33

that said that this agreement

6:35

between you and center schumer was a declaration

6:37

of political warfare

6:40

such a shame john cornyn is a good friend

6:42

of mine is such a good man

6:44

then for the politics to be so toxic

6:46

right now first of all i

6:49

never thought this weekend to fruition i never

6:51

spoke with anybody about any my colleagues

6:53

because they were frustrated that nothing happened

6:55

for so long the only other i never

6:57

could get to build back better which is a three and a half

6:59

trillion dollar spending bill this

7:02

is a four hundred billion dollar investment bill

7:04

and everything my republican talked about reducing

7:07

the amount of africa get it we

7:09

have we're paying down three hundred billion dollars

7:12

first time in twenty five years they've gotta

7:14

like that i'm a next of all they want

7:16

more energy i want more energy we're gonna

7:18

be producing more energy there's an agreement

7:20

the we're going to be drilling and doing more that we can

7:23

to bring more energy to the markets the reduces

7:25

prices they like that meals and there's gonna

7:27

be as a streamlining of permitting

7:29

john they gotta like that so well

7:31

i'm hoping they just take co op

7:33

you're gonna get a bill their argument is

7:35

in this matters because you're working with republicans

7:38

on other pieces of legislation and susan

7:40

collins one of those republicans you're working with

7:42

says that this is break of trust

7:44

which is what they're calling it you made certain representations

7:47

they would say to republicans and broke your

7:49

trust she said susan collins said it's

7:51

a very unfortunate move said destroys

7:54

the many bipartisan efforts that are underway

7:57

and other words whether it's on election reform

7:59

or same sex marriage that that the well

8:01

as been poisoned

8:03

well here's the thing i think susan

8:05

collins is different nino my very dear

8:07

friend we worked almost on everything

8:09

together but the thing i would i never

8:12

told anybody that i wasn't going to do something

8:14

if i had a chance to fix the energy

8:17

policy of united states of america and

8:19

i didn't do it shame on me by the

8:21

chance to reduce the amount of inflation and

8:23

people most virginian across the country are

8:26

enduring right now shame on me and

8:28

, never thought they would come to an agreement and years ago

8:30

pass and basically recognizing with

8:32

a missile ministration working with president

8:35

abides administration and working with

8:37

chuck schumer and all of them who basically

8:40

we're going a different direction and were very upset

8:42

with me for so long that they would ever sit

8:44

down but i guess would you know this thing as we

8:46

got become truly horrible

8:49

for the for families all across america

8:51

so now to have now to of legislation

8:53

that we have energy and we have investments

8:56

for new energy

8:57

basically that's a responsibility you can

8:59

walk and chew gum you have a balanced approach

9:02

this are solutions americans want

9:04

limited as we were able to provide these solutions

9:07

let's not make them political john you and

9:09

center schumer have a deal lot of democrats

9:11

are used to be very angry at you are suddenly now

9:14

saying nice things about you send

9:16

your tears and cinema the have you talked

9:18

to said or cinema who's vote is still unknown

9:21

on these bills as and where do you

9:23

think she'll go cause if she doesn't vote for it it

9:25

doesn't happen

9:26

yeah centers cinemas a dear friend of mine

9:28

and we weren't very close together on so many pieces

9:31

of legislation and she's she's

9:33

so involved in this legislation you think

9:35

about it she's the one is really negotiated

9:37

and work very hard on getting it medicare

9:39

allowing them to negotiate for

9:42

lord drug prices saving two hundred eighty

9:44

eight billion dollars such tremendous was

9:46

i support her completely

9:48

on that she's always been adamant about

9:50

we're not gonna be raising taxes and i agree

9:53

with her wholeheartedly i made very very

9:55

very carefully and evaluations

9:57

of we would raise any taxes have you tried out

9:59

scrub it was none

10:03

no you don't wait up on

10:05

, lobby my my my colleagues

10:07

on as i just basically put the facts

10:09

i'll try to answer questions i'm always

10:11

trying to negotiate with them if if they want

10:14

and i tried to and sometimes we don't get

10:16

there they get frustrated that we're always looking

10:18

at the next opportunity to improve

10:21

the quality of life and american that's what we're doing finally

10:23

senator there was a vote on a bill this week of

10:25

provide health care to millions of veterans exposed

10:28

to toxic fumes in burn pits during their

10:30

deployments out republicans

10:32

were previously voted for it voted against it

10:34

pat toomey republican from pennsylvania whole

10:36

beyond pennsylvania you've worked with extensively in your

10:38

career is worried that it adds

10:40

to the deficit that's something you care

10:43

about does pat toomey have pat toomey here

10:45

sure

10:47

the pattern is gonna get a he's gonna get

10:49

an amendment he he'll have a vote on that so

10:51

pack come on let's go let's put let's put after

10:54

put the facts outer pass a good man

10:56

a good friend of mine i'm sorry he's not won't be running

10:58

again and is leading the senate cause he's been

11:00

a quality valued member of the center

11:03

they represent offensive an extremely well so

11:05

he's been a friend we're going to work through this i haven't

11:07

seen the a member on mouth i'll be brief

11:10

tomorrow morning on and everything but has

11:12

gonna get is a memory let's see where it goes okay

11:14

so on that note sen joe manchin thanks

11:16

for being with us

11:18

they financial back in one minute stay with us take

11:22

out with the major garrett a sweet health

11:24

dakota republican governor christie know the list

11:26

is cut to the chase you wanna know she running for president

11:28

twenty point where right

11:29

iran right now i don't think so i'm focus

11:31

on south dakota as my priority and

11:33

from there will see where

11:35

hope you don't rule it and i don't rule it out

11:37

high enough president trump runs i'll support

11:39

him he runs a hill v the

11:41

front runner in not happy with

11:43

that mean you would not refrain correct for

11:45

more from this week's conversation follow

11:47

the take out with major garrett on apple

11:50

podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts

11:53

we go now to republican senator pat toomey

11:55

of pennsylvania he's in zines

11:58

of ill this morning good morning

11:59

sen

12:02

the morning joe

12:03

let's start with what the democrats are going the inflation

12:05

reduction act you will are you and other

12:07

republicans are not a fan what is your principal

12:10

critique

12:13

can make inflation worse actually

12:15

are so they've got a big corporate tax increase

12:17

that's gonna probably make this recession that were

12:19

in worse all of the spending

12:22

is unnecessary as can exacerbate inflation

12:25

it is not gonna reduce the deficit and

12:27

what did senator mansion get for a slug i'm a big

12:29

fan of joe manchin we are friends as he said

12:32

and i like job very much but i think he got

12:34

taken to the cleaners he's agreeing

12:36

to all this bad policy

12:38

in return for when she's been promised

12:41

that there's gonna be some kind of pro energy

12:43

infrastructure bill some time

12:45

in the future or first of all i

12:47

thought we did that in the infrastructure belt secondly

12:50

what is the text but most importantly

12:52

why isn't that in this bill them

12:55

and answer is because democrats don't support

12:57

it limbos gotta do a lotta harm and and

12:59

there's not gonna be a corresponding benefit as

13:01

a lot line in their let me focus on inflation

13:03

which everyone else is in for his slover saw

13:05

and max committee for responsible budget which

13:07

has been us of fan of yours in the

13:09

past and even in the president said

13:12

of the said this although reconciliation

13:14

was designed for deficit reduction this will be the

13:16

first time in many years of is actually used

13:19

for that purpose with inflation at

13:21

a forty year high and dead approaching record

13:23

levels this would be a welcomed improvement to

13:25

the status quo they and

13:27

others who have looked at this say it will affect the

13:29

them the it will affect the deficit

13:31

lower the deficit this legislation

13:34

yeah so

13:35

it it here's why we want a

13:37

because they use the same gimmick that

13:39

center mentioned said he was opposed to in the past

13:42

they claim the revenue over a ten year

13:44

window from their big tax increase

13:46

and their price controls and then

13:49

the expenditure that they acknowledged they

13:51

pretend is only gonna be for three years that's

13:53

the obamacare subsidies for wealthy

13:55

americans the obvious political

13:58

pay off the last

13:59

they had to do this they said it would only

14:02

be for two years it's about to expire

14:04

and they can of they can have it expire

14:07

before an election so they're extending it

14:09

but only for three if they have no intention

14:11

of ever ending the obama care subsidies

14:14

over a ten year window that white south

14:16

the

14:17

the purported deficit reduction by to be

14:19

so you're assuming bad faith in the future

14:21

but in this case they extended it and they found

14:24

pay for so that it would be deficit

14:26

so that would would decrease the deficit in this moment so

14:28

it's plausible given what's right in front

14:30

of us today that that could happen again in

14:33

the future i get what you're saying politically

14:35

it might not but based on what's before as

14:37

which is an extension of be a cia and

14:39

deficit reduction it is possible

14:41

to happen there

14:44

they are also counting huge amounts

14:46

of additional tax revenue from giving

14:48

more taxes money to the i r s

14:50

which the c b o does not agree with they're

14:52

also not taking into account how

14:54

much our economy will slow down from this

14:57

big corporate tax increase that will mostly

14:59

hurt manufacturing and domestic investments

15:02

are these numbers are very very dubious

15:04

quickly on that question of but production i

15:06

mentioned have to be a senator manson

15:09

the idea supply goes down when your tax

15:11

these companies he said for a matter of fairness

15:13

that these breaks that they have

15:15

a represent from a previous tax that and that

15:17

this is a matter of fairness in america

15:21

though look at look what is the source of this

15:23

tax increase it's very simple when

15:26

we made our tax reform and twenty seventeen

15:28

what we did as we said if a business takes

15:31

its profit then invest the back in it's

15:33

business in the form of capital investment

15:35

new equipment new plan expanding their capacity

15:38

then we said you be able to deduct

15:40

the cost of that in the year in which you

15:42

incur the cost

15:44

the democrats are saying we gotta bring

15:46

that to an end despite the huge surge in capital

15:48

expenditure than brought us and instead

15:50

they're going to say you only get to recognize

15:53

a small fraction of that we're going they're going to raise the

15:55

cost of investing in a business let me

15:57

ask you about the legislation this week the past

15:59

as

15:59

which i know you want to talk about it right providing

16:02

health care to means veterans who were

16:04

exposed to toxins hundred

16:06

and twenty three republican than a house voted

16:09

for this thirty four senate republicans

16:11

voted for it the bill

16:14

this week the bill didn't change but the republican

16:16

votes dad why

16:19

the republican votes didn't change on

16:21

the substance of the bill republicans have said

16:23

we want an amendment to change a provision

16:26

that has nothing to do with bet veterans health

16:28

care republican support this the democrats

16:31

added a provision that has nothing to do

16:33

with veterans health care and the it's

16:36

resigned the change government

16:38

accounting rules so that they can have a

16:40

four hundred billion dollar spending spree for

16:42

my amendment if we're if i'm allowed

16:44

to offer it will take out that provision

16:47

and will not reduce veteran spending by

16:49

a dime you mention this is that the

16:51

democrats inserted this but they did get one hundred and thirty

16:53

four republican votes and you have plenty

16:56

of republicans still voting for it it seems

16:58

like making this seem like a democratic gimmicks

17:00

obscures what is your real point and your lifelong

17:03

interest with his this is about budgeting

17:05

and whether the rules should be tight now

17:08

or whether as those who defend this

17:10

bill say allow congress

17:12

to work in the future to be fiscally

17:14

responsible isn't that a more accurate way

17:16

to think about your offer well

17:19

and well let's be careful here to john you mischaracterizes

17:22

when you are speaking with senator mansion we

17:24

are fully accepting that the new expenditures

17:27

under the pact that for veterans exposed

17:29

to toxic chemicals will increase

17:31

the deficit and we accept that as a price we have

17:33

to pay for people who serve the country's

17:35

what i'm objecting to is

17:37

a budgetary game makes a sleight

17:40

of hand in accounting rules that

17:42

will allow totally unrelated spending

17:44

of four hundred billion dollars over

17:47

the next ten years but that's what we think shouldn't

17:49

be in the spill never should have been well there's a debate

17:51

about that as you know some republicans don't think

17:53

it's a it's a gimmick they are still supporting this

17:55

and they think he can be six litre but let me ask you

17:57

this i read your amendment language

17:59

with your language that

18:02

on just deal with this other say it actually

18:04

caps annual expenditures for

18:06

the toxic fond and after ten years

18:08

ago now where's that the junk that's

18:11

totally incorrect

18:12

what it taps is how the government

18:14

accounts for these transfers but there

18:16

is no cap on the amount of money that goes

18:18

over there is no cap on the total

18:21

programs look a if it

18:23

honest democrats value in this will tell you

18:25

if my memory passes not a dime

18:28

change in spending on

18:30

but utterance programs what changes is

18:32

how the government accounts for i understand

18:34

but the italian chain says you know is

18:36

a result the reason i put it in that other bucket

18:39

is that it doesn't subjected to

18:41

the normal tree out your budgeting and the argument

18:43

is that the values at stake here are

18:45

more important than leaving it to the normal cut

18:47

and thrust of budgeting and so i would

18:49

ask you this habits that that that

18:52

yeah but but it's worth protecting his their argument

18:54

eliminate it's about priorities as you know budgets

18:56

are way people talk about priorities and a governments

18:59

this week many of the republicans you switch their

19:01

boat voted for semiconductors in

19:03

twenty seventeen republicans lifted the caps

19:06

on discretionary spending we also had

19:08

a situation where lots of spending it's done and defense

19:11

you have been consistent with deficit reduction

19:13

but lots of other republicans when they think

19:15

it's in their interest say let slip

19:17

the caps let's not be so fastidious about

19:19

the budget so

19:21

why is it important to be fastidious when it comes

19:23

to veterans but less so when it comes

19:25

to say supporting trip manufacturers the

19:27

big because john what once again

19:29

you're completely mischaracterizing this we

19:31

are all accepting that there are no

19:33

changes to the projected spending path

19:36

for all the veterans program the existing veterans

19:38

programs and the new ones under the pack

19:40

that's what were objecting to is

19:42

an accounting gimmick that will allow totally

19:45

unrelated spending of four hundred

19:47

billion dollars over the next ten years

19:49

and most republicans think we shouldn't loosen

19:52

up the budget rule so the democrats

19:54

can go on a spending spree on things that have nothing

19:56

to do with veterans health care of course democrats

19:58

have to be in charge

19:59

future when ad spending happens in they may very

20:02

well not be but thank you senator

20:04

for been with as a percentage don't i would

20:06

impose the i would impose the restriction on

20:08

republicans as well the new

20:10

of the last word centered to me thank you we

20:12

turn out of the president of the minneapolis federal

20:15

reserve neel kashkari good morning meal

20:19

inflate one john thanks for having me thank

20:21

you for being here okay everybody

20:23

wants to know inflation still

20:25

hot what is it what does it look like to you

20:30

is very concerning you know we keep getting inflation

20:32

readings new data as it comes in and in

20:34

as recently as this past week and

20:36

, see getting surprise is higher than we

20:38

expect and it's not just a few

20:41

categories is spreading out more broadly

20:43

across the economy and that's why the federal

20:45

reserve is acting were such urgency

20:47

to get it under control and bring it back down

20:51

down within that guy

20:53

is what does the wage picture look

20:55

like it in

20:57

two different ways we measure it boasts just on it's

20:59

own and then relative to inflation for

21:03

most americans are wages are going up with

21:05

they're not going up his passes inflation so

21:07

most americans real wages real

21:10

incomes are going down sat why

21:12

families are finding it increasingly hard

21:14

to make ends meet when they go to the grocery store

21:17

when a by necessities they're not able to

21:19

buy as much because they're getting a real wage

21:21

cuts because inflation is growing so

21:23

quickly i mean typically we think about

21:25

wage driven inflation where wages

21:28

grow quickly and and that leads to higher prices

21:30

in a self fulfilling spiral that

21:33

is not yet happening high

21:35

, and wages are now trying to catch

21:37

up to those high prices so high

21:39

prices are being driven by supply

21:41

chains and the war in ukraine among other

21:43

factors and so we need to get the economy

21:46

back into balance before

21:48

this really does become a wage driven inflation

21:50

story let me ask you about have

21:53

had have figure that people may not know as much

21:55

about everybody knows about the consumer price index

21:57

and inflation the economic cost index

21:59

came out this week and some economists

22:02

look at bad as have signal of

22:04

for inflation tell me what you saw

22:06

in the economic cost index this week

22:10

we have a lot of different measures for example of

22:12

wages of what's happening to wages

22:14

an easy i as i call it is one measure

22:16

that eyes or is a it's

22:19

a robust measure of what's happening to wages

22:21

and what's happening the benefits and wages

22:23

continue to climb and on one level it's

22:25

a good thing we want americans to be making more money

22:28

but if wages are climbing such

22:30

that the economy shows that is overheating

22:32

that tells me that the federal reserve has more

22:35

work to do to bring inflation down

22:37

to bring me economy in the balance to sit

22:39

it's basic level inflation is when

22:41

demand is outstripping supply we

22:44

know supplies low because of supply chains

22:46

because of the war in ukraine because of covert

22:49

we hope that supply would come on line

22:51

more quickly that hasn't happened so

22:53

we have to get demand down into

22:55

balance how i hope we get some help on the supply

22:58

side but that doesn't change the fact

23:00

that the federal reserve has its job to do and

23:02

we are committed are doing it we have thirty

23:05

seconds left help on the supply side

23:07

what does that mean well

23:10

i talked to a lot a global businesses who are trying

23:12

to get their supply chain sorted out so

23:14

that they can meet their customers' needs and make

23:16

sure that their products on the shelves they're

23:18

making some progress there's some sides is

23:21

getting better but as city a lot longer

23:23

than they thought and that i thought as

23:25

so that means we can our way to apply

23:27

for his heels we do our part

23:29

with monetary policy were going to have to take

23:31

a commercial will be back to continue this conversation

23:33

they'll crush cars

23:38

welcome back

23:40

to face the nation we continue our conversation with

23:42

minneapolis federal reserve's the

23:44

or kashkari kneel on let's pick

23:46

up where you left off on this question of supply

23:49

when i was talking with that two senators earlier

23:52

there was this debate about whether taxation

23:54

whether taxation that don't pay a minimum level

23:56

of taxation will have their supply

23:59

hurt so there are you taxes tax

24:01

some supply goes down that hurts with

24:03

inflation what's your assessment about

24:07

your long are over the long term that's probably

24:10

true on a margin people say that about raising

24:12

interest rates why raise interest rates that's going

24:14

to make it more expensive for firms to invests

24:16

i last wrote not help with the supply

24:19

side statue over the long term

24:21

but over the short term the demand

24:23

side effects are totally swamp the supply

24:25

side effects and so when i look at a bill that

24:28

being consider the your two senators talked about

24:30

my guess is over the next couple years is like going

24:32

to have much of an impact on inflation it's

24:34

not going to affect how i analyze inflation

24:37

over the next year's i think long term it

24:39

may have some effect but over the near term

24:42

we have a be a cute mismatch between

24:44

demand and supply and it's really up

24:46

to the federal reserve to be able to bring that

24:48

demand down and we're committed to doing what

24:50

we need to do your help me understand

24:53

of recessions very the debate in washington

24:55

that's full of political gamesmanship

24:58

said take us inside why it matters

25:00

if america's in a recession and what the component

25:03

parts are that are part of that

25:05

and how that helps us understand the help the

25:07

economy really

25:10

matters when americans feel it when americans

25:12

are especially in the job market that's the most

25:14

important part of the economy so to speak

25:17

for americans is their job do they have a decent

25:19

place to work and earn a decent wages and

25:21

typically recessions are they

25:23

demonstrate why job losses high

25:25

unemployment and those are terrible for

25:28

american families are were not see anything like

25:30

that the labor market so far is

25:32

very strong we are seeing some sectors

25:34

like the tech sector start to shed

25:36

workers or start to cool down and hiring but

25:38

fundamentally the labor market appears to be very

25:40

strong while gdp that

25:43

the of mouthy economy is producing appears

25:45

to be shrinking so we're getting mixed signals

25:47

out of the economy from my perspective

25:50

in terms of getting inflation in check

25:52

whether we are technically in a recession or not

25:54

doesn't change my analysis on

25:56

focused on the inflation data i'm focused

25:59

on the wage data and so far

26:01

inflation continues to surprise us to the

26:03

upside wages continue to grow

26:05

so far the labor market is very very strong

26:08

and that means whether we are technically a

26:10

recession or not doesn't change the

26:12

fact of the federal reserve has it's own work to do

26:14

and we are committed to doing it last twenty

26:17

seconds neon gdp when

26:19

it goes down isn't that kind of what the feds trying

26:21

to do slowdown growth so

26:23

is that a good number

26:26

well we definitely want to see some slowing we

26:29

don't want to see the economy overheating are

26:31

we would love it if we can transition to a

26:33

sustainable economy without tipping

26:35

the economy and recession there's not

26:37

a great record of doing that typically when

26:40

of the economy slows down as slows down by quite

26:42

a bit especially if is the central bank

26:44

that is inducing the slow down to where the

26:46

do everything we can to try to avoid a recession

26:49

but we are committed to bringing inflation down

26:51

and we're going to do what we need to do and

26:53

we're a long way away from achieving

26:56

an economy that is back to two percent inflation

26:58

and that's where we need to get to sorry neel

27:00

kashkari thanks so much for being with us

27:03

one hundred days and counting until the mid

27:05

term elections a sterling opportunity

27:07

for our cbs news battleground tracker

27:10

and our first estimate of where the battleground

27:12

control for the house of representatives sans

27:15

republicans who currently hold two hundred and fourteen

27:18

of fourteen hundred and thirty five seats and are in

27:20

the minority would take over control

27:22

in the house by anywhere from anywhere narrow majority

27:25

to majority sizable one if the election

27:27

were held today or best estimates

27:29

best estimates moment is two hundred and thirty seats when

27:32

he has now to explain all of this is cbs

27:34

news elections and service director anthony

27:36

cel been told anthony okay

27:38

that number two thirty sticks in our mind

27:41

but but what is the largest reason

27:43

that it's looks like it might be to third man

27:45

morning drugs so let's start by reminding people

27:47

that there are four hundred and thirty five

27:49

separate contest going on this fall

27:52

and we interviewed people across

27:54

all those districts and put it into this model

27:57

to show you that in terms of seats

27:59

which is what

27:59

the person you notice is that most

28:02

seats and don't flip at typical

28:04

but there is a narrow band in

28:06

which we're going to trade in this range

28:09

and that's what's really important to watch

28:11

now see seats that could swing

28:13

back and forth the sort of these prevailing

28:15

political winds if you will and this

28:18

election seems like it's really influenced

28:20

by what we might call the nature of the

28:22

times which is there a lot of people think

28:25

to the contrary moving in the wrong direction

28:27

the things aren't goods and that's

28:29

not only the most important thing voters

28:31

are telling us as on their minds but

28:34

it's also the republican or winning

28:36

those voters and so that's really impacting

28:38

their seats and so the nature the

28:40

times is often associated with the president

28:43

the president is often it's you know

28:45

joe biden would like this is often seen as a referendum

28:47

on the presidency so what of an what does the survey

28:49

tell us about joe biden in the role

28:51

he's playing him he likes of yeah a person is always

28:53

on the ballot in the mid term and even as

28:56

he's not really on the bounties on voters'

28:58

minds this certainly the case here

29:00

is a big motivator for republicans

29:03

as that's pretty typical because a president's party

29:05

typically lose seats in a mid term for

29:07

them it's a it's another bite at the apple they

29:09

get to vote again if you will after

29:12

twenty twenty six now the important

29:14

thing though that leads to whereas biden

29:16

suffered some lower approval even among

29:18

democrats and that dampening

29:20

enthusiasm among democrats and

29:22

that's gonna lead to another problem for the party

29:24

right now which is perhaps lower

29:27

turnout from his face so

29:29

, are angry or about the way things

29:31

are happening now they're turning out and they don't like

29:34

the president so the democrats i'm

29:37

reminding him what they feel that joe biden in one of the feel

29:40

about donald trump who used to motivate them

29:42

quite strongly yeah so the couple

29:44

of things one is if they're disappointed with

29:46

joe biden they may sit

29:48

this out may what they're telling us you look at key

29:50

parts of the democratic constituency for

29:52

one just one example young people

29:55

far less enthusiastic about voting

29:57

than older americans that makes

29:59

electorate favor the republicans right

30:02

there that democratic base doesn't show

30:04

up then let's mention the

30:06

former president trump's it's interesting

30:08

he is just as much of a motivating

30:10

factor as joe biden he's

30:13

still on democrats minds even

30:15

though is out of office so for republicans

30:18

they see him as a positive

30:20

they actually think that for president trump

30:23

is fighting for their issues more

30:25

than their party in congress

30:27

clearly still seen as a leader of the party

30:29

in that regard but then for democrats

30:32

he's him that negative so that's something i

30:34

think to watch the democrats keep talking

30:36

about him as we go forward because he does

30:38

me at motivate democrats writes his own terms motivating

30:40

both parties do they have the january six

30:43

hearings played a role or do they earlier

30:45

survey data well in some sense democrats

30:47

are watching it more so they're kind

30:49

of preaching to the converted of

30:51

what you do see as as republicans have tuned

30:54

out these hearings there's a bit

30:56

of a split there's the republicans

30:58

who consider themselves mag of republicans

31:00

as just over half the party or

31:02

had they're very close to the former presidents

31:04

that not only to did out but some of them actually

31:07

wish the president has succeeded in doing

31:09

what he was they think he was trying to do and stay in

31:11

office but there's a slight

31:14

slight number of republicans who are

31:16

watching this and you see a little bit more

31:18

hesitancy among them about their

31:20

vote choice so marginal differences

31:22

matter and i think that's going to be one of the keys

31:25

going forward if some republicans

31:27

peel off as a result of this another

31:29

of the focus in the political world other than the january

31:32

sixth series recently has been the decision on roe

31:34

versus wade a lot of democrats

31:36

pandits thought this would energize the democratic

31:38

base what is the survey so well

31:40

let's look at women under fifty cause

31:42

that's a key part of the democratic base they

31:45

consider abortion to be just as important

31:47

as other big issues like the economy like

31:49

inflation on they also

31:52

believe that a republican congress

31:54

would make things overall worse for

31:56

women and they describe the republican party's

31:58

extreme but there's a pressure here

32:00

which is that they don't see the democrats

32:03

as effective and they don't think that the democrats

32:05

are doing enough right now to protect

32:08

abortion rights to they're not necessarily

32:10

seeing the answer from the democrats

32:12

and that it's as a moment has the

32:14

democrats not doing as well with that group

32:16

as they have and past election so does that mean

32:18

they have an opinion about republicans

32:21

but it doesn't mean they're going to be motivated to this early vote

32:23

on it right because they have to get an answer

32:25

from the democrats are they're not seeing that right now

32:28

inside that question of women college

32:30

educated women that was a group the democrats did well

32:33

with how is the democratic party doing now

32:35

worse than they had in previous

32:37

elections and that is so important

32:39

those numbers are doubts they think that

32:41

the republican congress would make things worse

32:43

for women in the country but concerned

32:46

about the economy very concerned about

32:48

the direction of the country and all of those

32:50

things are factoring into this is going

32:52

to be one of the keys of not the

32:54

key groups to watch through the for the

32:57

final quickly anthony is the democrats

32:59

think they have a spending bill it's about to pass through the

33:01

senate will that help their fortunes in

33:03

the next two hundred days on people will

33:05

reason from results though reason

33:07

from what they see the cash register and the gas

33:09

pump not necessarily from legislation

33:12

right and we see that when people say they're

33:14

personally affected there are less enthusiastic

33:16

about voting for democrats so they've got was

33:18

six eight weeks to see if people

33:20

can they can turn that idea around in people's

33:23

minds or and they some other thanks so

33:25

much as always

33:31

we're back with our political panel asthma

33:33

helene covers the white house for npr

33:36

jonathan martin his senior political correspondent

33:38

for the new york times in the coal author of

33:40

this will not pass from this

33:43

for euro is the editor of the national

33:45

review and robert costa is our own

33:47

chief election campaign correspondent it's

33:49

great to have you all here

33:51

start with you amiss

33:54

what did you take away from this polling

33:56

that we'd that anthony just talked about are

33:58

a lot of interesting findings in that

33:59

but the thing that stuck out most to me

34:02

was c a

34:03

the tree in enthusiasm that

34:05

republicans are more excited opponents

34:08

of this administration are more into

34:09

yeah talk about showing up to though

34:12

that's a pattern that we usually see and midterms

34:14

it's the reason why i think we've

34:17

had so few periods of unified

34:19

government in the last fifty years that's

34:21

of the public turns against

34:24

whoever is in power in the white house

34:26

that's where you cover the white house i'm

34:29

joe biden talked about how many get out into the country

34:32

but ramesses thinking about thinking about that may not

34:34

or a party that mean i want to seem so what's the thinking

34:37

get him out there or because to build

34:39

enthusiasm or keep him at home cause

34:41

of that won't work

34:42

why do you think the plan is to get him out

34:44

there was sort of this covered sweeper

34:46

clears but i think the thinking is mean we

34:48

look at this past week there are a couple of

34:50

legislative wins that democrats have had and i

34:53

do think that the party the the white house believes

34:55

that by going out on the road and selling some of

34:57

these legislative accomplishments they can

34:59

boost the base but i think that and this is

35:01

a challenge of mean i saw the enthusiasm

35:04

thing to remission into me what i was struck with

35:06

in particular was either you look you know but

35:08

young voters they never really show up in a midterm

35:10

cycle but they actually did show up in record

35:12

numbers and twenty eight teams their

35:14

enthusiasm has completely fallen

35:16

off for bite and you feed him pulling i've

35:18

heard it would i glad on the road they're just

35:20

not excited about it

35:21

it's fallen off in eighteen it might have

35:23

been inspired by donald trump johnson

35:26

anthony's , showed no one turns amount like

35:28

donald trump in both parties so it's

35:31

remarkable the code dependence on donald

35:33

trump all within

35:35

the democratic party is forwards or

35:37

seven years and counting now in which donald

35:39

trump has offered the best mobilization

35:43

to best fund raising and just

35:45

the best overall grassroots energy for

35:47

the democratic party jobs and

35:49

democrats quietly with need that

35:51

to get their voters out in an otherwise

35:53

difficult or election year

35:55

for val i'm it's those numbers

35:58

of our younger voters in the survey so

36:00

striking i think a big part of the reasons

36:02

john that binds approval rating is below forty

36:04

percent nationally is because a drop off

36:06

in his own party or you're only below forty

36:09

a nice cup whole rise times if you're losing

36:11

some folks on your own home team at a at

36:13

a huge part of their challenge keeping those

36:16

folks energized this one is why did the climate

36:18

the i think could be important odd the was

36:20

hatched this past week for getting

36:22

more energy infused into the

36:24

sort of ranks of younger democratic voters for they

36:26

desperately need this fall the build on

36:28

that point it's an important one i remember

36:31

when i first started covering leader mcconnell

36:33

years ago the person who would stop by

36:35

more than anybody it seemed was then

36:37

vice president joe biden he was the deal

36:39

makers and when i would talk to voters and twenty

36:41

twenty on the democratic side they said

36:44

they wanted to elect a deal maker who could make

36:46

washington works and see do wonder

36:48

as the campaign season heats up can that

36:50

deal making aspect of biden someone who

36:52

from the white house shepherds a deal between

36:55

senator mansion and senate democrats can

36:57

he get traction with voters who see washington

36:59

as dysfunctional remiss we're gonna

37:01

we're gonna to the

37:02

the absolute faith top level of politics

37:05

but let's start about policy first second as bob

37:07

missing there's , some deals

37:09

hear that the president may or may not have been involved in

37:12

but what do you make of the legislative

37:14

record and bipartisan legislative

37:16

record between guns infrastructure

37:18

maybe now well semiconductors

37:21

would make of just them legislative record so

37:23

far

37:23

i think that the legislative record

37:26

is very impressive measured

37:28

against a baseline of a fifty fifty

37:30

senate the democrats is less would

37:32

record is extremely disappointing

37:34

measured against the baseline of the expectations

37:38

that liberal democrats had

37:40

going into twenty twenty one

37:41

when they had the house the senate

37:44

and the white house

37:45

there weren't grand ambitions and

37:47

one of the reasons for that drop

37:49

off and support and the demoralization of

37:51

democrats is exactly that gap

37:54

and that's what they've got to solve between now

37:56

and november

37:57

yeah yeah i would say i mean as

37:59

much

37:59

biden sees these

38:02

victories drawn as his rationale

38:04

for weiss my party needs

38:06

me ah

38:08

i came here is like a make the system work

38:10

get deal from across the aisle gosh

38:12

darn i've done it who else can do that

38:15

by the way also not so subtly he say

38:17

who else can beat trump as well you

38:19

know i think there's some democrats who would sort

38:21

of have this south west wing style fiancee

38:24

and which biden signs these bills into

38:26

law he puts down the pan and

38:28

how does the reverse lbj of after

38:30

a period of race success he says

38:32

it was that i'm going to fulfill my pledge

38:34

to be a bridge off residents

38:36

that that that that the gate is open in

38:39

what the bridge go up and it's that's just

38:41

never going to have big we know joe biden

38:43

season the take from this success john

38:45

i think it's affirmation that

38:47

that my party in my country needs

38:49

me i can get is kind of diosdado are

38:52

in the congress i can take on trump

38:54

again or i alone if you will

38:56

artists and six hundred osman

38:59

went one thing that present biden said as we go news

39:02

as about as recession economies recession

39:04

everybody's mind he said he didn't see one

39:07

that a wise thing to do to get into

39:09

a big debate about the recession or did they assume

39:12

there's gonna be people talking about the recession we

39:14

might as well try and get any and hours

39:16

like a lot by this i mean all week long we

39:18

had the white house of the economic advisors

39:20

of the white house reaching out that you know what i suppose

39:22

like myself economic reporters tooth preemptively

39:25

essentially squash some of the didn't

39:28

, news that we knew is gonna happen but

39:30

i do think to in it's your point in many many of the economists

39:32

that i was speaking with this week will say no we don't

39:34

see a recession at this particular moments but

39:37

in the same breath they've said we don't know

39:39

we might be in a recession and six months particularly

39:41

if you know if the fed really does

39:44

raise interest rates to quickly to me

39:46

it was it was dangerous argument to make

39:48

because you know it will be played on

39:50

repeat later if the country is in recession

39:53

and six months six understand the political

39:55

need to essentially alleviate concerns

39:57

and nobody wants to hear i think hear i country now

40:00

where in a recession but it's dangerous because

40:02

six months out even before the

40:04

of the midterms this country could be in a recession

40:07

i was in when talking about the economy

40:09

the democratic side who's making

40:12

a case that is in all of it's complexity

40:15

but makes the case essentially the voters he

40:17

got years and one us in the future instead of the other

40:19

team when i'm out there on the campaign

40:21

trail is evidence that there's not necessarily

40:24

in enthusiasm gap but a message

40:26

messaging gap or the democrats explaining

40:28

what they've done one point nine trillion

40:31

march twenty twenty one then

40:33

they pass an infrastructure bill now they have this climate

40:36

and tax and deficit reduction package they're

40:38

pushing forward but is that breaking through

40:40

to the voters it's it needs to connect with

40:42

it's not entirely clear on there are also talking

40:44

about foreign policy in terms of the economy

40:47

when this is a former chairman of the senate foreign relations

40:49

committee now sitting there in the oval

40:51

office as china becomes more

40:54

aggressive with taiwan that's

40:56

the variable i'm also watching the head of

40:58

the midterms both politically on policy

41:00

an economically what is china do

41:03

and how does president biden response

41:05

image do you think they have let's imagine this get

41:07

through manson schumer and sentiment comes

41:09

along that

41:11

in the end of the day matter or is it you

41:14

know for of every day between now and election people

41:16

are going to be still seeing higher prices and and

41:18

and what's your assessment of of it's political

41:21

effect

41:21

people don't wait to

41:24

sneer from the media

41:26

or the nbr

41:28

whether they're in a recession if

41:30

, people's paycheck is

41:33

going you know is is is not going

41:35

as far as i used to and that is true

41:38

there's been a think this a think recession they're going to think this

41:40

is about it

41:41

the man they're going to hold the party in power accountable

41:43

this administration i think is consistently

41:46

played the politics of the economy babbling

41:48

first in denying that inflation was

41:51

gonna happen denying it was gonna stick around

41:53

and now getting into this absurd

41:55

definitional argument about whether

41:57

we're in a recession or not i think that that is

42:00

when to actually slightly compound

42:02

the problem by making them also look out

42:03

touch

42:05

martin the senate let's look

42:07

at the center first of that are you

42:09

hello races look there you i

42:12

n n n this was supposed to be a favorable

42:14

your for republicans how's attorney and well of

42:16

the when the certainly blown in their direction

42:19

or as it often does are drawn in

42:21

the first mid term our president

42:23

of the opposite parties but i

42:25

think and senate races a and gubernatorial

42:27

races here let's do still matter

42:29

they don't matter as much of house races which is more a

42:31

parliamentary referendum on

42:33

the red vs blue would who's in power i

42:36

think it does matter more who the cumulative on

42:38

the ballots are we talking about

42:40

job and and and centenary his and and that the

42:42

for republicans are having real challenge as because

42:44

they've nominated keen let's who in

42:46

some cases are out of the mainstream in other

42:48

cases just have off you know more baggage

42:51

that o'hare during the summer and next and create

42:54

obviously some sound is the third point

42:56

jaw added the finances

42:58

a lot of things duel p candidates are going

43:00

to be welfare cases which is always a problem in the republican

43:02

party or a rematch and they're going to need a bailout

43:05

and from a lot of the super pacs the great irony

43:08

of our times a this cycle at

43:10

least is that the donald trump

43:12

back candidates for senate

43:14

and gov are going to require

43:16

bailouts financially from people like

43:18

mitch mcconnell and the old guard who they

43:20

ran against but let's not forget

43:23

the republicans are not focused everywhere on the economy

43:26

you look at pennsylvania's gubernatorial nominee

43:28

doug mastery ah no and election deny er

43:30

out in arizona carry lake in elections

43:32

and i are this is pervasive and the gp

43:34

across the country i'm really watching

43:36

ohio senate race can tim ryan

43:39

a populace democrat actually beat jd

43:41

vance in a tough year in can john fetterman running

43:43

for senate in pennsylvania upset doctor

43:45

oz and a state that went for trump's or

43:47

back and twenty six

43:48

and i'm also curious how democrats are really

43:51

able to capitalize on the dogs decision

43:53

because this is something to me that very unclear

43:55

i mean kids kansas in a we talk about that earlier

43:57

this kansas is this place where

44:00

voters are going to have a chance just this week to vote

44:02

on a constitutional amendment to change abortion

44:04

rights in the states there i said our with the vp

44:06

shortly after the decision came out and she

44:08

told me i mean this is something that she had personally

44:10

been going out to state north carolina

44:12

indiana where it's not entirely

44:15

settled law yet i don't know than any

44:17

of us really know

44:17

show that it's not working

44:19

in other words democrats think the white as isn't doing

44:21

the job the only thing

44:23

i think that they are having sufficiently done a good

44:25

good enough job yet but i think it's the one thing

44:27

that democrats could any if they want to shift the

44:29

conversation away from the economy this is

44:32

a salient issue to do that

44:33

yet they can be had and just real vast

44:35

amounts of plug are both shamelessly

44:38

deny this will not pass you can still buy it now

44:40

are we have a a conversation

44:43

or with mitch mcconnell on the late the might

44:45

have you know recess in which he bowed

44:47

to cross props in the primaries

44:49

this year the opposite happened

44:52

and allow these states john from back you will it's

44:54

one stuff garage gdp

44:56

and rep have blake masters in arizona and

44:58

now it's all mcconnell to help them out financially thirty

45:01

seconds if there if there way of way sufficiently

45:04

strong for the

45:05

how about it it can carry flawed

45:07

candidates to victory but

45:09

the trouble is that it's gonna take

45:11

more resources

45:13

and some of these candidates

45:15

are gonna take more risks the from the national republican

45:17

party from conservative donors all over the and

45:20

toss that money won't be able to get

45:22

other get of all races across the finish one

45:24

republican wave lives all leaky votes

45:27

thanks to all of you for being with us

45:29

we're at we're at thank you all

45:31

out there for joining us will be back and just and

45:35

today they give her watching

45:41

today as were democratic sen

45:43

joe manchin from west virginia are

45:46

looking sen pat toomey from pennsylvania

46:05

nate from cbs news in washington

46:07

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46:09

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46:11

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