Many songbirds are migratory, and they are in a serious conservation trouble! Here we show from a recent publication by Walther and Huettmann (2021) how those trends in the Old World and its African fllyways and wintering grounds can be modeled with Open Access GIS layers and machine learning, how they relate to recent habitat factors over time, and where the trends and hotspots in Africa are predicted to go in the near future for species that are in 'large decline', 'moderate decline' and 'not declining'. This work presents a grim case for flyway managment achievements, lack there of for 1970-1990, and the still ongoing decay along the flyway while the human crisis in those regions is currently accelarating, including warfare, poverty, oil development and mining, human migrants and climate change. 

One must probably find that this a surprising conclusion considering that so much migratory bird (banding) research has been ongoing, e.g. in former colonial countries,  but then it has not really put those topics on the agenda, communicated it in the scientific bird literature, or improved habitat-related questions last 100 years. It seems to present a typical case of Bandura's (2007) argument while conservation is time-critical.

Citations (in reverse order to match podcast content)

Walther B.A. and F. Huettmann (2021) Palearctic passerine migrant declines in African wintering grounds in the Anthropocene (1970–1990 and near future): A conservation assessment using publicly available GIS predictors and machine learning. Science of the Total Enviroment Feb 27;777:146093. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146093.

Kronenberg J.,  E. Andersson and P. Tryjanowski. (2017) Connecting the social and the ecological in the focal species concept: case study of White Stork. Nature Conservation 22: 79–105.

Berthold P. (2003) Changes in the breeding bird fauna of two southern rural communities during recent decades-lost paradises ? J Ornithol 144:385–410.

Bandura A. (2007)  Impeding ecological sustainability through selective moral disengagement. Int. J. Innovation and Sustainable Development 2: 8-35.

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