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Sports. And for this pitch watching,

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world. Got a fantasy question?

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Email fantasybaseball at cbsi.com.

1:39

Get ready to win

1:41

your league. Where fantasy

1:44

becomes reality. Now

1:46

here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Welcome

1:48

in to Fantasy Baseball Today and

1:50

welcome to Picture Week. Frank, Scott,

1:52

and Chris all here on Monday,

1:54

February 19th. Today on the show,

1:56

it's our starting picture preview part

1:59

one. Setting the stage.

2:01

Will break down leaguewide Trans: What happened

2:03

with pitching last year? What you need

2:05

to compete in broader. We each have

2:08

our approaches to starting pitchers this year

2:10

and it will try to through the

2:12

top twenty or so in a D

2:14

P. Let's assume Friday and ah, and

2:16

first. Let's. Take a step back.

2:18

Twenty Twenty Two: a clear outlier offer

2:21

starting pitchers likely due to some version

2:23

of a dead in baseball with suppressed

2:25

home runs And Twenty Twenty Three? Thing.

2:28

Since and will be implemented. New

2:30

rules, ciphers, six in the pits,

2:32

clock, bigger pieces. It was all

2:34

done with the intent is Henry

2:36

More organic office. And that's exactly

2:38

what did leaguewide starting pitcher erase?

2:40

Some from Four Point O Five

2:42

and Twenty Twenty Two. So four

2:44

Forty Five in Twenty Twenty Three

2:46

Leaguewide with went from one Twenty

2:48

Six. To. One thirty One

2:51

with those numbers listed.

2:53

And. That being said, chris. How. Does

2:55

that affect what you needed to compete in Iraq

2:57

and whip? Are. In the eerie

2:59

and with categories in rotor leagues last

3:02

year I believe you have the data

3:04

for both whole team and fifteen team

3:06

leagues Yacht What I don't have is

3:08

Twenty Twenty Two data to compare it

3:10

to, but I do have for Twenty

3:12

Twenty One. So last year the number

3:14

one team. In Roto Leagues

3:16

last year and twelve team Cbs

3:18

Sports mentally to This means the

3:20

team that won the are a

3:22

category. So. The team that won

3:25

the you're A Category last year on

3:27

average had a three, four, five, Six

3:29

years that have. A. Nice little

3:31

fun, the you know wanna know

3:33

what that's called for numbers, narrow

3:35

alarm in twenty twenty one, it

3:37

was three two feet. About.

3:40

Two tenths of a run higher

3:42

whip last year. one point one

3:44

five in twenty. Twenty. One, it

3:46

was one point one. Sixth.

3:49

And seventh place. So right in the

3:51

middle was three point nine three Seven

3:53

Three point nine Nine seven. And.

3:55

Twenty twenty Three. And twenty twenty one,

3:57

two three seven seven, three Eight or

3:59

so. Then about. Two.

4:02

Tenths: Two point One Five runs

4:04

better in Twenty Twenty One than

4:06

Twenty Twenty three in a fifteen

4:08

team league. First place was Three

4:10

Point Five Seventy Eight. This is

4:12

based on and a Pc main

4:14

event leaves. The.

4:16

Middle point there was above for. So.

4:21

What that should tell you is.

4:24

All of a sudden, last year of

4:26

for ya rape. It wasn't

4:29

helping your fantasy team. But.

4:31

It wasn't. A disaster in

4:33

the way that it might have

4:36

been viewed for a pretty long

4:38

time. And that

4:40

is a pretty significant shift

4:42

now. Obviously you're not aiming.

4:44

For. A for ya right about like. I.

4:47

Think when you're looking at this. Year

4:50

I wrote this pieces on Cbs Sports That com.

4:52

Here's what you need to win every rotisserie category.

4:55

I think you should always thing about winning third

4:58

place. if you in third place in every category

5:00

is a pretty good chance you're going to win

5:02

your league. The average first place team. Finished.

5:05

In around third place in every category. So.

5:08

To wins third place Last year

5:10

three seven eight was the fourth

5:12

place Number see need a three

5:14

seven nine ers. To

5:17

win third place last year,

5:19

that's pretty high. And. I

5:21

think that fits in with everything

5:23

we've talked about since last season.

5:25

How how much that landscape shifted

5:27

even though. It

5:29

wasn't like the juice ball era, it was a

5:32

different kind and playing it wasn't just every by

5:34

giving up home runs and what really made last

5:36

year stand out more. Going to talk a lot

5:38

about this was. The. How bad

5:41

be early round pitchers work? As

5:43

a whole, it was. I

5:46

just looked at the last five years but

5:48

it was by far. The. Last:

5:50

the worst year for the top fifteen starting

5:52

pitchers in A D P. I have that

5:54

data if you'd like to hear. Go

5:57

for. Ah, last year. Based.

5:59

On the. The Grass Auction calculate your

6:01

top fifteen starting pitchers taken. Averaged

6:05

three point seven dollars.

6:08

In. Value. What's.

6:10

That. Is because six of

6:12

the top sixteen. Provided.

6:15

Negative House. Including like.

6:18

Gods. Are spying. I got hurt to the

6:20

right some go to her. take a big

6:23

Ramos top fifteen city. Alcantara was a negative

6:25

player last year because he pets so many

6:27

innings with. Such a bad A Are

6:29

A I'm. Compare.

6:32

That to the previous four years. Not.

6:35

Include twenty twenty two sides. I

6:37

just don't look at twenty twenty one

6:39

of during these kind of analysis. So,

6:41

twenty Twenty Twenty twenty to Twenty One

6:43

Nineteen Eighteen, no more than five of

6:45

the top Fifteen provided negative value in

6:47

any. Of. Those

6:49

for and be average value was

6:52

at least nine point five dollars

6:54

for the top fifteen. Every.

6:56

Year before last year when again it

6:58

was three point seven dollars. So. It

7:01

was a. Pretty

7:04

disastrous season for the most

7:06

expensive pitchers in fantasy. And

7:08

twenty toys. And

7:10

that makes sense. I guess

7:12

Stuck down white here and that

7:14

makes sense because of all the

7:17

land l all the rule changes

7:19

you were talking about Frank were.

7:23

What was different? Now

7:25

that twenty twenty three. Why

7:28

pitching suffered And twenty twenty three, what? What

7:30

was different about it from like twenty nine

7:32

teen the worst of the juice bowl era.

7:35

Is. That back then. You.

7:38

Still hadn't really really dominant

7:40

pitchers because in you could

7:42

find really dominate pitchers basically

7:44

got strikeouts. If. You tap the bomb

7:46

the ground. You. Know all the runs in

7:48

the to spoil your were being scored on home runs

7:50

basically so as long as he prevented that you could

7:53

you could. You. Really dominate

7:55

as a pitcher, but some. Now

7:58

runs are being scored. The other

8:00

way less predictable ways and the to and

8:02

latch on to work. Chris was saying this

8:04

was something I tweeted out it on September

8:07

sixth of last year so there was still

8:09

a month to play to go. I'll

8:12

have to redo the numbers with the full

8:14

season stats, but basically the season was almost

8:16

over. So and Twenty Twenty Two five teachers

8:18

average nineteen fantasy points per game or more.

8:21

Twenty two into five average night in are

8:23

more. Compared to one in

8:25

Twenty Twenty three. Seventeen.

8:27

Eighteen points, It was seventeen. And

8:30

twenty twenty two it was for. And

8:33

twenty twenty three. And. And twelve

8:35

to sixteen points, so more of

8:38

like a mid to upper tier

8:40

it's starting pitcher. It was forty

8:42

eight and twenty twenty to sixty

8:45

six, and twenty twenty three. so

8:47

everybody kind of receded into. Something.

8:50

We haven't mentioned yet here and as

8:52

p preview one sided allow we've ever

8:55

gone and a podcast with the glob.

8:57

everybody receded into the glove it and

8:59

so A So this is my theory

9:01

on the Guam. And. We

9:03

kind of. Made.

9:05

Reference. We we've gotta

9:08

talk address a lot of these

9:10

points are but so you had

9:12

rule changes that promoted more base

9:14

runners. With. The shift ban.

9:17

Promoted. more base activity.

9:19

With. Pick off limits the bigger bases et

9:21

cetera, more more base runners, more runners

9:23

on the move, more stress for the

9:25

pitcher, and then to top it all

9:27

off, He. Introduced the pitch clock

9:29

if you force them to maintain a

9:32

high tempo. When. It There

9:34

was all the stress on the bases and

9:36

so what? I. Noticed

9:38

as I was playing out Twenty Twenty Three.

9:40

When I'm sure a lot of people noticed

9:42

playing out Twenty Twenty Three is that. When.

9:45

Things went bad for a pitcher, and

9:47

to start they tended to go really

9:49

really bad. You saw a lot of

9:51

these disaster starts. You saw him at

9:53

all levels of the pitching spectrum the

9:55

high and guys, and certainly the had

9:57

the guys outside of the high end.

10:00

At but. Specifically.

10:03

You don't have a high and guys obviously we're

10:05

capable of really dominant. start. Still an economy made

10:07

it so you could live with the disaster. starts

10:09

a little more but it's if they weren't a

10:11

high and guy who are middle and guy the

10:13

were a middle to low and guy they were

10:15

in the glob. They.

10:18

Basically became random number generators. They

10:20

might have a great start. Seven

10:22

innings, six innings, you know, one

10:24

run, six strikeouts or whatever. Great.

10:27

Am I turn around the have a earned runs the

10:29

next star. And you just.

10:31

It became impossible to really anticipate

10:34

what was going to happen from

10:36

them. Ah, it was just complete

10:38

randomness. It destroyed He is if

10:41

it's any pitcher could destroy your

10:43

teens. He already. At

10:45

the drop of a hat. And

10:48

it sucked. It sucks. So

10:50

I'm. So. That's what

10:52

I'm talking about when I say the Glock. Basically

10:54

this giant massive fifty or sixty pitchers that from

10:56

start to start you really have no idea what's

10:58

going to happen there ya raise? Only

11:01

as good as their last start. At. Least

11:03

that's how it played out last year and

11:06

so on. Just kind of. My approach to

11:08

starting pitcher this year is just. Okay,

11:12

I want strikeouts. First of all,

11:15

If you're getting out without contact,

11:17

that's. Hopefully. Gonna

11:19

prevent base runners in the first place that gets

11:21

into this mess. But even more than that, The.

11:24

Reason I want strikeouts is because strikeouts it

11:26

down on strike out to cut back on

11:28

strike. The. Pitcher knows how to get

11:31

strikeouts. That pitchers going to get strikeouts unless he's

11:33

hurt or something. He

11:36

or a specialist wit specialists. you know

11:38

there's some guys I trust more for

11:40

He are isn't another. But.

11:43

I know to a certain extent are a threat

11:46

to permit anybody. and certainly the pitchers in the

11:48

Glob. I. Don't feel like I can

11:50

sort out who's going to have a

11:52

better or worse the are A with any

11:54

any great accuracy as long as the environment

11:57

stays the same. And

11:59

that's always. That's. Always the

12:01

caviar isn't it? Cause Mlb could

12:03

change something. Interested, Just

12:06

figure out ways to manage the stress better

12:08

Like you know they've They've They've had a

12:10

year of exposure to it, They're obviously wants

12:12

to do their best and and so maybe

12:14

maybe they'll be better coping mechanisms for pitchers

12:16

now, butts. Based on what we saw last

12:18

year, Ah, I.

12:21

Am fearful of the Glaad

12:23

hands. Mostly wanting to

12:25

build my starting pitching around strikeouts as

12:27

a as a result. Yeah. I

12:29

think that makes a lot of sense. got. The

12:32

number that I had were eerily similar to the

12:34

ones that you presented. I went with starting pitchers

12:36

with eighteen or more fantasy points per game. If

12:38

you look at the past three years, seven and

12:40

twenty twenty One In Twenty Twenty Two. Only.

12:43

To in Twenty Twenty Three. So again,

12:45

that elite top tier, it's depleted. It's

12:47

not as plentiful as it was in

12:49

Twenty Twenty One In Twenty Twenty Two

12:51

if you look at starting pitchers with

12:53

sixteen or more. But he ended the

12:55

season It was seventeen and Twenty Twenty

12:57

One, Twenty Four, and Twenty Twenty. To.

12:59

Ten. The In: twenty twenty three

13:01

and then are starting pitchers between twelve

13:04

and sixteen, Thirty Seven, and twenty Twenty

13:06

One, Thirty Five, and twenty Twenty to

13:08

forty two. And Twenty Twenty Three. So

13:10

those pitchers got pushed down into that mid tier

13:12

or as we like to call him, the glob

13:14

of. My favorite thing to keep in mind when

13:16

you're doing that mouths is is Twenty Twenty One

13:19

was artificially deflated at the high end. Because.

13:21

So few pictures were throwing as many innings.

13:24

You know that? That's one thing that

13:27

we we talked a lot about as

13:29

Twenty twenty one is is just a

13:31

dip for starting pitching production overall because

13:34

of they were coming off the Twenty

13:36

Twenty season so yeah but those numbers

13:38

are stark and I'm the obviously that's

13:41

a a points league analysis focus but.

13:43

You. Know you see it. Him Roto leagues

13:46

well using the same grass auction calculator.

13:48

There were. Nine. Starting

13:50

pitchers who are worth at least twenty

13:52

dollars last season. In.

13:55

And twenty twenty three, it

13:57

was. there twenty to sixty

14:00

Wow. So yeah, that's very, very

14:03

similar regardless of what approach

14:06

you take. Now, there

14:08

are a lot of questions as to

14:10

why this is the

14:12

case and whether or not

14:16

you should take a ton from that

14:18

and whether because ultimately, when

14:20

we're talking about like even if, you know, like

14:23

I did earlier, the top 15 starting

14:25

pitchers, that's a small sample

14:27

size. And, you know, that

14:29

number about the most negative value

14:32

players, well, that was

14:34

two more than most of the

14:36

other seasons we were talking about. And, you know, it

14:38

was show head or Sandy

14:40

Alcantara was really bad last season from a

14:42

fantasy perspective because of how many innings he

14:44

threw in a way that was specific

14:47

to roto leagues. And Spencer

14:49

Strider really struggled with his ERA in a

14:51

way that I don't think any of us

14:53

expect to be the case in

14:55

2024. So maybe, you know,

14:58

there are there are things in his profile

15:00

that suggest he may be a higher

15:02

ERA pitcher than you might think. But the

15:06

the what was the stat, the

15:08

top four starting

15:12

pitchers by X ERA

15:14

expected ERA. I'll

15:17

look this up. Go ahead and keep talking with

15:19

your point, Chris. I'll look this up. But there's

15:21

there's an issue. Well, it's just

15:24

it's just to say, like we

15:26

talked about with the third base

15:28

preview, where a year ago, third base

15:30

was by far the shallowest position to the

15:32

point where you could make

15:35

the case that it was worth stretching

15:37

for Nolan Arenado into the third round or

15:39

the second round. If you thought that he

15:41

was the last third baseman, you know,

15:44

for the next five rounds worth drafting. And

15:47

now all of a sudden, third base just looks like

15:49

a normal position again, because we had a handful of

15:51

breakouts. And so it's

15:53

always, I think, worth having in the back of

15:56

your mind when we have these discussions. This

15:59

is what happened. last year. And

16:01

this all this goes without saying for everything we

16:03

talk about, but I think it's especially true when

16:05

we're talking about population level stuff. Just

16:09

because something happened the previous year doesn't

16:11

mean it will happen the next year.

16:13

And, you know, how

16:16

different does it look if Shane

16:19

McClanahan doesn't get hurt? Or,

16:22

you know, whatever, you know, specific picture

16:24

you want to say who contributed to

16:26

the position being shower

16:28

at the top end. Doesn't

16:31

change the glob though. I mean, glob

16:34

is well behind that group. And

16:37

that's that's what I'm most fearful of. I

16:39

do think I do think

16:41

the the standard for an ace has

16:43

changed, which is kind of what we're

16:45

talking about. And

16:47

I mean, part of what part of what contributed to that

16:49

is like Garrett Cole, you know, in one side young, he's,

16:52

you know, was good enough that we're drafting in the

16:54

first round again, Corbin Burns, their

16:57

strikeout rates went down. And I don't really have

16:59

an explanation for that. Because that

17:02

the environmental changes shouldn't have changed shouldn't

17:04

have impacted that. Maybe a

17:06

long standing effect of like the

17:09

sticky stuff. Well, there is that

17:11

yeah, because every year since they

17:13

introduced the sticky substance ban, they're

17:15

saying we're cracking down harder this

17:17

year. And, and they certainly said

17:19

that at the beginning of last year, too. So, I

17:21

mean, that could be part of what's contributing to

17:24

the the reduction

17:27

of performance at the highest

17:29

level of starting pitching. But

17:32

yeah, I mean, I get what Chris is saying.

17:34

And he's not wrong. Like maybe it's just a

17:36

one year phenomenon, I think, with

17:40

with all of it with everything that happened at

17:42

starting pitcher with the glob and everything with the

17:44

with the disaster starts with the mid

17:47

level pitchers being random number generators from

17:49

start to start. I mean, like I

17:51

said, pitchers may have come

17:54

up with a way they may figure out a

17:56

way to Cope with

17:58

the pitch clock and also. Yeah, pays activity.

18:01

I mean. Past

18:03

generations of baseball there was a lot more

18:05

base activity than during the juice bali or

18:07

was kind of like a return to an

18:10

old standard there. so and obviously pitchers, it's

18:12

figured out how to navigate that environment before.

18:15

But. About a dieting Mozart, it

18:18

was a major. There were

18:20

rule changes contributing. To.

18:23

Authored old. Like. We we

18:25

always ask going into a season with lateral changes what

18:27

is this gonna means that we saw it at Met.

18:30

With. Mans. I mean that that's the reality.

18:32

I feel like I have to operate and

18:34

now maybe reality will be diff look different

18:36

next year because of what happened and Twenty

18:39

Twenty Four. But I can only go with.

18:42

What? I've seen so far you know, and.

18:44

I'll. Let their first break before we do

18:47

that to some quick reminder suicide up for

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the F B T newsletter at Cbs sports.com/newsletters

18:51

click on the F B C logo, punch

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in your email address is easy as that.

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Chris is a great job with these every

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19:00

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delivered right here in box Cbs Sports that

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hit that like button and subscribe to the

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make sure to subscribe. Hit the notification

19:22

bell. March is going to be very

19:24

very important. Me: Federer is very important

19:26

but Marches. A. Little bit more important,

19:28

order to be doing live mock drafts

19:31

britain as spring Training and much more

19:33

explicit, our first break When we return,

19:35

I will present an argument for drafting.

19:37

He says. And then the Devil's Advocate

19:39

for that argument right after the. Signing

19:41

a little. Or. A lot.

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the going to be a big one and

21:29

well as wanted wanted to support them into

21:31

this is my pick it up on from

21:33

with me supposed to be punished for an

21:35

officer that's a little. Further back

21:38

in starting pitcher preview part one

21:40

of the arguments for in a

21:42

strapping an ace early in your

21:44

draft. If. It's harder

21:46

to find elite pitching. Doesn't

21:48

that make the top tier more. Important.

21:51

I. Could see somebody. Forming. That

21:53

argument. Also. Does play devil's Advocate

21:56

to My own Argument here is that. I.

21:59

Don't know that there's much as. Or he's you know,

22:01

like Strider in the first round, Gary Coleman's

22:03

Sick or Around vs. I dunno, Zack Wheeler

22:05

in the third round or whatever might be

22:07

as dominant as tried or is. He

22:10

had a three eighty six years last year. As

22:12

dominant as the Recall, his, his strikeout rate

22:14

was way. Down as got pointed out. So

22:17

I swear to mention that because I could see

22:19

someone listening or watching this and say, well, why

22:21

don't we draft the top tier starting pitchers if

22:23

they're hard to find. And. I guess yes

22:25

the reason against it and it and you know

22:27

I I I kind of addressed it but maybe

22:29

in a more helter skelter still to way so

22:32

just to drive home the point. Remember.

22:34

That was the approach. Who are taking her

22:36

least I was taking? And Twenty Twenty coming

22:38

off the height of the to spoil your

22:40

and Twenty Twenty One to the worked out

22:42

the world. Twenty Twenty build your team around

22:44

a says they are the scarcer commodity. The

22:46

bigger drop off happens after them. For what

22:48

separates this year of from that era. Is.

22:52

The aces aren't as done. That.

22:55

He says, don't distinguish themselves from

22:57

the rest of the pitcher ranks

22:59

as much as they do. they're

23:01

They're just less dominant than past

23:03

years of aces. That's that's their

23:05

more predictable. Maybe then the glob.

23:08

But. They're

23:11

not going to stand out as much

23:13

from the. You.

23:15

Know. Further, Down and the pitching

23:17

ranks as they might have during the to spot

23:19

Euro Scarborough Quick. In. Terms of A

23:21

D P: Where it? where is that

23:23

glaad start for you Because Me: Me:

23:26

this kind of eyeballing it. Sonny

23:28

Gray Verlander, Chris Bassett. That's like

23:30

sp Thirty Three A Thirty Five.

23:33

That. Kind of feels like the reins but have offer you. Yeah.

23:36

That's pretty much it. Day. In

23:38

my own rankings, it's It's around

23:40

thirty fifth. So. That's

23:42

that's pretty much the right.those. specific pitchers

23:44

named were Sonny Gray, Chris Bassett, and

23:46

who else Verlander. Verlander.

23:50

I think I have them all in my.

23:53

In looking I'm a pitcher tears and in

23:55

the start of glob tear. Now Verlander used

23:57

to be outside of it, but. He

23:59

said shoulder. Problems already the spring so I'm.

24:02

I'm I'm considering Verlander Gloppy at this point.

24:05

And maybe I should have all along and on else.

24:08

So. Yeah, that's that's about it. The

24:10

one thing I would say is. I

24:13

think it's more helpful. To.

24:17

Think of. Maybe.

24:19

Think of it in terms of. Profiles

24:22

rather than reigns right at least

24:24

for me, the way I view

24:26

it as like. There

24:28

are pitchers who might be ranked a

24:31

little higher. But.

24:33

Who are certainly not as. Safe.

24:36

And one thing that I think a lot

24:38

about his i'm. And. I'm hope I'm

24:40

I'm hoping I can find the right way to put this.

24:44

I don't know how familiar you guys are with the

24:46

concept of the are be dead zone but it's become

24:48

one of the the more. Fashionable

24:50

discussion points when it comes to

24:53

fantasy football drafting in. the idea

24:55

is that basically you have. Your.

24:58

First three rounds. First two, maybe

25:00

three rounds of running backs and

25:02

fantasy football dressed historically based. these

25:05

are the best bet you can

25:07

make and fantasy. And.

25:09

What separates them is these other guys who have

25:11

proven they can handle two hundred and fifty three

25:13

hundred plus touches. We have proven they can be

25:15

efficient Who have proven they are on? Get off

25:18

and get past it. Catch passes and all the

25:20

things you look for. And then

25:22

after that what you have a have

25:24

historically happen at the right back position

25:26

and it's it's happening less now because

25:28

of Darby doesn't discuss in is that.

25:31

Everyone. Else gets pushed up bright like

25:33

everyone's like while I still need running

25:35

backs in the third and fourth and

25:38

fifth and sixth round, so I'm going

25:40

to take the guy who's projected to

25:42

get two hundred and fifty carries even

25:44

if he's not good, even if he

25:46

has no job security or I'm going

25:48

to take the young exciting I, even

25:50

though there's no projects in in terms

25:52

of is worthless and those tend to

25:54

be the worst best you can make

25:56

because running backs are an inherently volatile

25:58

high variance position. And

26:00

when you. They're all bets

26:02

in a certain white, right? They're all kind

26:05

of low probability bets because they get hurt.

26:07

They're. Relying. On their teammates for

26:09

production. Then you start

26:11

adding on. Yeah but I bet disguise gonna be

26:13

good or at best this guy's gimme if the

26:15

workload and. You.

26:17

See what I'm doing right? Like

26:19

you see how the them the

26:21

analogy sits pretty perfectly with starting

26:24

pitcher to the point where. The.

26:26

Way I think of it is. There.

26:29

Are two things you're looking for. You're looking for good

26:31

ratios, you're looking for good pitching I guess is the

26:33

way to put it. And you're looking for vault. And

26:36

the guys who you feel really confident can give

26:38

you both. Go. Their

26:40

separate. I did their

26:42

first, second, third rounders, whatever, whatever. the

26:45

Raider. And there's

26:47

proven time and time again there seven

26:49

of them it after that in my

26:51

and yet listen. Let's. Take

26:53

Tyler Glass now in the third round

26:56

and unless. That's not

26:58

to say that towered last. I cannot work

27:00

in the third random and this far the

27:02

discussion is not about specific pitchers. he's just

27:04

George Kirby's another When you could say he's

27:06

gonna throw, get more strikeouts there is no

27:08

and. That's where.

27:11

I. Think once you start talking

27:13

about premium picks. Where

27:15

you're wishing on something. That.

27:18

Is where I think if there is an S

27:20

P dead zone. That's. Where

27:22

I think you start to see it when you start

27:24

to go. Yeah, but

27:27

s. Your is

27:29

was not draft. You might as one not spend

27:31

an elite pick on that player so it sounds

27:33

like you are more in the campus. You.

27:37

Know gimme gimme a true ace.

27:40

Ah, I mean I've talked about of a

27:42

handful of times, but I think my approach

27:44

is. Tends. To be.

27:48

I. Would love to get one

27:50

of the top six seven whatever

27:53

the number is. That. Sounds

27:55

probably the one you had John their

27:57

I Z at well I think public

27:59

as you can have John for similar

28:01

reasons to that gallon I think like.

28:03

Spencer. Spinal there at all. Given us the workload

28:06

once once. yeah that's yes. I found given us

28:08

the workload kind of twice sitting twenty twenty one.

28:10

He had a decent amount of innings when he

28:12

wasn't great that sees of remembering correctly. not only

28:14

twenty two, he had Balbo issue. I would argue two

28:16

years in a row for Pablo a hundred eighty plus

28:18

innings and eat have a positive it out innings in

28:20

two thousand thought I thought I heard to and

28:22

I am right as my as piece of I have

28:25

met a gala be i them as as be seven

28:27

as well. done it's harm in a row so I'm

28:29

as yeah I think. Strider.

28:31

Coal Burns Wheeler gasman

28:33

Castillo Lopez that that's.

28:36

I. Think of. Is. I think

28:38

gallons right there. But yeah, I think

28:40

there are some questions with him coming

28:43

off two hundred and forty innings, especially.

28:46

Those are the guys that I feel. Reasonably.

28:50

Confident about both the workload in

28:52

the. Performance: Now.

28:55

The way this tends to work is probably

28:57

two or three of them will get hurt

28:59

or just be bad cause it's starting pitcher

29:01

after that is that the you start to

29:03

see it. To. Her School: Aaron

29:05

Know these are my rankings. Tear School

29:07

Aaron Nola, Yoshi Yamamoto, Framer Valdez What

29:09

Tower Glass now for? I like. There's

29:11

a lot to like about all of

29:14

those. They.

29:16

All have a gigantic fifth and so

29:18

I do think there there's a specific

29:20

scenes in the way you need to

29:22

view them and the way you need

29:24

to think about drafting those guys as

29:26

part of your larger holistic strategy. and

29:28

so. When. I say I want one

29:30

of that top six or seven. I.

29:33

Then what? I. Want.

29:36

To know you guys don't really agree with

29:38

this, but I want to get back into

29:40

the next year. But. Only

29:42

for one of the guys that I feel really good

29:44

about the workload. So. That would be

29:46

like Frame or Valdez who I think has

29:48

jumped at way straight seasons of the workload.

29:51

Aaron Nola. His whole career. Basically

29:53

Logan Lab, it's not what to wear

29:55

are going to be in that range

29:57

for me. His time a cloud.

29:59

Now you're right. The Raza. basically like.

30:02

Pick. Up The guys who are ranked that high

30:04

because they give you the work load are the

30:06

guys who I think are vulnerable as receding into

30:09

the job on performance from. That's what I want

30:11

to avoid and this is Brenda. I think it

30:13

specifically as a road over his head to head.

30:16

Because. I think it I wrote a what I want is

30:18

i'm not a fearful of a glob and had to have.

30:21

Under a main road out. what would really

30:23

hurt what really kills you with the glob

30:25

and those disaster starts the random number generator,

30:27

whatever you want to call and roto is

30:29

that. You. On

30:31

do so much So much of what's you try

30:34

to accomplish and he are a weapon one feel

30:36

fell swoop that sticks with you the rest of

30:38

the season. A bad start. A. Disaster started

30:40

to head to Head League, okay, a message

30:42

the up one week, but you start fresh

30:44

the next week and so I I think

30:46

it's. Different type that never There has

30:48

never been a year where my roto. Starting.

30:51

Pitcher rankings have differed so much for my

30:53

head to head start. even rankings. Because.

30:55

of that last vote but basically outside

30:58

was i do I wanna say is.

31:01

I kind of want like to pictures of my

31:03

first four or five picks in a wrote a

31:05

league where I feel really good about. In.

31:08

The Aggregate. Three.

31:10

Hundred and seventy innings.

31:13

Pushing for plus four hundred plus

31:15

strikeouts. Hopefully. Good ratios

31:17

obviously, but obviously it's air know. There's

31:19

a little more skepticism about the are,

31:21

and I get that, but what that

31:23

allows me to do is having that

31:25

solid base of volume. Where. I'm

31:28

not. Gosh, I hope tear

31:30

school stays healthy or gosh, I helped

31:32

Hourglass now stays healthy or you know

31:34

is. It. Allows me

31:36

to to then deep into that pool of

31:38

really really talented guys we really like and

31:41

like the fifty to sixty to seventy range

31:43

brine. Woo! and your you darvish bounce back

31:45

if you want to bet on and whoever

31:47

Michael King. It allows me

31:49

to do that without those guys being. Here.

31:53

Here's the well while having that

31:55

baseline set. Here's the problem why

31:57

I don't feel like I can do that.

32:00

It because the drop off from we talked

32:02

about how the drop off from the elite

32:04

pitchers to the next down does not until

32:06

nearly as big as it used to. The.

32:09

Drop off from the top hitters. To.

32:12

The next down feals. Sued.

32:14

Still, it feels as years like in

32:16

my mind. their about three, three and

32:18

a half rounds worth of Mvp caliber

32:21

bats. And then there are like seven

32:23

rounds worth of hitters that it's kind

32:25

of hard to distinguish between. So I

32:27

feel like that You know that that

32:29

the first three, three and a half

32:31

rounds. Those seven pitchers

32:33

that we're talking about. That.

32:36

You feel safer with are all going to

32:38

go in that same range, but I feel

32:40

like there's urgency to take hitters there and

32:42

so. I've. Been pretty focused

32:44

on drafting hitters. Drafting.

32:47

From that, that group of Ndp caliber hitters

32:49

until they're all gone. And if there is

32:51

like a Kevin Bossman. Or.

32:54

Or as on a know that gallon there

32:56

after they're all gone. great but they're usually

32:58

isn't. And so I'd. Try.

33:01

Then to. You

33:04

know, recognizing the volatility of the group

33:07

that follows the tech schools and call

33:09

Reagan's and. Just

33:11

and steel types. I try to get more of

33:14

them to compensate for that I try to get

33:16

for of that. For. of my

33:18

top thirty five that we're talking about that though

33:20

that that are ahead of the glob. But

33:23

it's usually concentrated in the fifteen to

33:25

thirty five range of my rankings. Now

33:27

what I have noticed Because you know,

33:29

normally we're talking twelve team leagues. What

33:31

I have noticed is that fifteen team

33:33

leagues? You get those real deep roto

33:35

leagues. It's hard to

33:37

draft for pitchers from the sixteen to thirty

33:39

i've read the data. They're just big to

33:42

go over too short a span of time

33:44

because there's so many more teams picking and

33:46

so in that form and in that deeper

33:48

roto format. I'm. Gonna open to

33:50

draft and like Eric whole at the end

33:52

around one job so I can. Really

33:55

make sure I get. A

33:57

stable elite pitcher. And.

34:00

And then maybe drafting to of those in the

34:02

fifteen to thirty five range. but that's only for

34:04

the fifteen team leagues. Obviously most of

34:06

the people listening don't play and weeks that

34:08

the and friends I know you want to

34:11

move on. but I do wanted to point

34:13

out one more thing and want a box

34:15

but I think one. The

34:17

Tv station. It's just a philosophical thing

34:19

is. My. Strategy this

34:21

year is very similar what my

34:23

strategy has been. The. Last

34:25

five years says it's It's very much

34:28

informed by historical data and. It's.

34:30

Possible to. I'm just. Wrong. Rightly.

34:33

That this that last year did

34:35

represent a sea change and. But.

34:38

My. My pitching staff were pretty

34:40

good. Last year across my my rather

34:42

team saw that that's but that that

34:44

is one distinction is that I'm still.

34:47

Based. On historical draft Friends

34:49

were. The. First three or four rounds

34:51

starting pitcher tend to be were the best values

34:53

and and. The. Distinction between five

34:56

and thirteen is a lot

34:58

smaller. Than. You think? And then that

35:00

was also true last year as well. I he

35:02

has a good point Chris. I. Know

35:04

the data shows that. Early round

35:06

pitchers are much more likely to provide

35:08

return on investment. The problem is that

35:11

I says. The. Same historical

35:13

data shows that hitters in the

35:15

early rounds are even more likely

35:17

to return. Investment.

35:19

Then. The early round pitchers are so there's

35:22

a give and take their what do you

35:24

want to do and maybe these are famous

35:26

last words, but. The. Atp this

35:28

year. It feels like. The. Rounds Three

35:30

to seven starting pitchers. Are.

35:32

Better than they have been in years past. I don't know

35:34

if that's a slight. Set. Not much

35:37

of a differentiation between than the top tier

35:39

pitchers. whatever it might be I think you're

35:41

are be dead zone analogy is a really

35:43

good one. But suddenly I noticed and fantasy

35:45

football this year is that if everyone starts

35:47

thinking that way I thought it does start

35:49

to push running backs down and you find

35:51

good values and would obviously there's always gonna

35:53

be times in the rough like whatever Priests

35:55

Hall was like a third or fourth round

35:57

pick and he was awesome that anyone cares

35:59

while saying. Mobile but I don't know but but

36:01

you're right that that is a that is a trend that

36:03

I think. Our. Be

36:05

values have gotten better. As

36:08

we've gotten smarter about dropping

36:10

them, And I don't know

36:12

if we didn't technically say that about starting

36:14

pitchers, but isn't it feels that way on

36:16

the surface, right? like you've I thought little

36:19

bit about your says he. I

36:21

am kind of a blend I guess of

36:23

both you guys were like is Zack Wheeler,

36:25

Luis Castillo or Kevin. Golfing falls to the

36:27

white point in round three where it makes

36:29

sense that I will take them. Or.

36:32

If it's as if I start redditors I wrote: I've done

36:34

a lot address. It. Kind of feels

36:36

like Logan Web is a great value and round

36:38

for where he's going. right now. it's as you

36:40

know, the argument against George Kirby's. Halo.

36:42

The web is here around waiters yeah I very

36:45

rare or more flyers and then I usually like

36:47

to double up. If you take a Logan Web

36:49

you can kind of pair him with a strike

36:51

out of side pitcher like a for Peralta or

36:53

a code I sang go replace Now I'm like

36:55

that and then usually I like to jump in

36:58

our Galaxy Three are my top thirty. So like

37:00

S P Three, someone like a Bobby Miller or

37:02

Yuri Parade is. You know if you

37:04

six and risk was your first Jupiter's a be a

37:06

take like a Zac Efron or adjacency of those guys

37:08

be a little bit safer So that's me I like

37:10

to take for you my top thirty but. Are

37:12

you. Guys have already thought of. broken down your strategy

37:14

right? We can move on for hims. Or

37:17

guy that think though he I mean

37:19

we could probably do a whole podcast

37:21

on fishing stratosphere, tennis but that. but

37:23

let's let's let's money only have. We.

37:26

Only have like. Three. More

37:28

hours to talk about that are more

37:30

relaxed to have episodes. Guys and I

37:32

said imagine of Taba. I was okay

37:35

going longer with strategy today because we're

37:37

doing three podcast worth of just starting

37:39

pitchers. So again, we're trying to the

37:41

top twenty today. And and a half

37:43

the game. It's half the game. Basically,

37:45

peers are half the game and they

37:47

have jerked around so much over the

37:49

years I am at. There's a lot

37:51

to look out when evaluating pity was

37:53

wrongly crazy last year. Frank, they drove

37:55

me crazy brother, the random numbers and

37:58

off. Or us or our lives. Thereby

38:00

Aubrey when he returned into the Atp.

38:02

We go here on Fantasy Baseball today.

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Migraines working and doesn't care of

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my little one's life. I checked

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put the runs of mother was

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made from M and M's peanut butter.

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But your honor roll We know. Comfort

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coming soon to supervise. Welcome.

39:05

Back into Fantasy Baseball today at

39:07

starting Pitcher average draft position. V

39:09

A fantasy prose which is this. Five

39:12

different websites including C B S E

39:14

S P N, Yahoo, Rt Sports, and

39:16

the Nfp see what started the top?

39:18

Only one starting pitcher consistently going in

39:20

the first round of twelve team leagues

39:23

Spencer Cider with an eighty p of

39:25

nine point six cider we know has

39:27

nasty stuff. he's the best like our

39:29

pitcher in baseball. Ah, Sissinghurst in terms

39:32

of strike out last year T minus

39:34

walk rate, swinging strike again this and

39:36

first in all those category. Three.

39:39

Point Eight, Six Ers. That's what

39:41

hold Strider back. It was elevated,

39:43

although each of his fifth accept

39:46

sierra and expected erase. Or. Either

39:48

first or second among all qualified

39:50

starting pitcher. So. We. Would hope

39:52

that there's maybe some better luck. Some positive

39:54

progress in in the way of Spencer Side

39:56

or this year. Why was that your a

39:58

so high? Well. The home run per

40:01

nine his home run rate in general jumped

40:03

up last year, a more than doubled last

40:05

season. he did struggle in the second half

40:07

Maybe that was a bit of the workload

40:09

going from one hundred thirty four innings and

40:11

twenty twenty two up to nearly two hundred

40:13

innings last year. Or and his fastball, while

40:15

still really good, It's. The Prop: one

40:17

mile per hour And that in Velocity. So

40:19

something that stood out to me there as

40:22

well. Scott Brazen Rock in the Strider shirt.

40:24

Soon. As spencer try to be the

40:26

first pitcher drafted. He

40:29

should. I mean, especially if you, like

40:31

me, consider strikeouts to be the most

40:33

reliable statistic. In this advice, it's always

40:35

been the most reliable this statistic, but

40:38

even more so in this new gloppy

40:40

world we're living in. He had forty

40:42

four strike, Forty Four. More strikeouts than

40:44

anybody else. The other

40:46

three more wins than anybody else. For what

40:49

it's worth that's the most valuable fantasies that

40:51

not the most predictable but he pitches for

40:53

brave team that scores law to run so

40:55

in theory is putting all those endings again

40:57

he should be. Really good source of wins.

41:01

Or. But you know there are downsides.

41:03

Obviously, he's only taken on that his

41:05

workload once so far, and so he

41:07

hasn't proven he can do it again

41:09

and again like a Jericho can. And

41:12

what is going on with the array?

41:14

I. I would like

41:16

to think it's mostly bad luck. Probably.

41:18

Is mostly bad luck. But

41:21

I will point out Strider was of this

41:23

is the stat I was referring to earlier

41:25

that I looked up and the never shared

41:27

struck that the top four. Finishers:

41:30

In expected ya re. Ah,

41:34

According to. According

41:37

to Stack, cast as minimum four hundred balls

41:39

in play. So I'm I'm only doing guys

41:42

who took on a big workload top or

41:44

finishers unexpected he or a their actual yeah

41:46

ray. Was. About.

41:49

Half a run higher for all of them.

41:51

They were Pablo Lopez, Zack Wheeler, Zach

41:54

Athletic and Spencer Strider. So part of

41:56

it is just I don't know that

41:59

this environment allows. For.

42:01

Any or a that low a part of

42:03

the to his strider throws two pitches. Valuable.

42:06

Slider. And. It doesn't seem

42:08

that interested and expanded arsenal. of

42:11

their their their been questions asked them the

42:13

spring sounds like he's sticking with fastball slider.

42:16

And. So on days when maybe

42:18

the slider Who are days when.

42:21

Maybe. The fastball isn't. Quite.

42:26

As it's very best. Or.

42:28

Even individual innings where the fast nonhuman

42:30

added very best because as somebody watched

42:33

a lot of Striders starts, I can

42:35

tell you he be cruising for five

42:37

innings and then he just had a

42:39

wall one any. And. And

42:42

up with a crooked he are a for that one

42:44

start when he had. Been. Dominating. Up

42:47

until that point, I think it's

42:49

just. And

42:51

maybe it's a hobby can get over without developing

42:54

a new pitch, but it's. He

42:56

can just be a little predictable. If

42:58

is if he doesn't bring has a game has a

43:00

game is next to on hittable. But.

43:03

If it, if it slips into a

43:05

minus be plus territory. Things

43:08

can unravel for him. Oh

43:11

right the sp to and eighty p his

43:13

gear call epic Thirteen so at times is

43:15

slipping into the second round. here in draft

43:17

he's coming off his first sight on the

43:19

Lord's call is a dependable workhorse. He has

43:22

the most. Innings pitched since Twenty

43:24

Seventeen or be t for him was that he

43:26

cut down the home runs allowed. His home run

43:28

per nine went from one point four eight in

43:30

Twenty Twenty. Two to zero Point

43:33

Eighty six in twenty twenty three.

43:35

His. Whole month for fly ball rate.

43:37

also with and sixteen point eight percent

43:39

to my point four percent. Oddly enough,

43:41

had his best season with the Yankees,

43:43

despite a pretty big drop in strikeout

43:45

rates keep her nine eleven point, five

43:47

to nine point six. The. Key rate

43:49

from thirty two percent. To twenty

43:52

seven percent swinging strike rate from

43:54

or fourteen percent to eleven point

43:56

seven percent. last year for the

43:58

recall fastball velocity they dropped nearly

44:00

are just over one mile per

44:02

hour. Despite all that, arguably the

44:04

best pitcher in baseball Chris, How

44:06

much do you worry about the

44:08

underlying numbers with your call? Or

44:11

bird. Don't. Really even think

44:13

about it. Or do

44:15

I look of on the fly? Just

44:17

I I think we oversaw Gerrit Cole

44:19

last year. Whereas. I go to

44:21

Zero trying to hide it is the

44:24

jury and I think it's sort of

44:26

like. We

44:28

we know Garrett coals going to

44:30

be very very good. Will.

44:32

He be the number two or number one

44:34

starting pitcher in fancy while he was last

44:37

year, but he wasn't the year before. What

44:40

we know is he's going to be greeted. The.

44:43

Specific safe of it. I. I

44:45

don't care that much. like. He

44:48

traded some strikeouts for. Better

44:51

home run prevention last year and it. Was.

44:53

A sustainable change. The quality of contact

44:56

the he allowed was significantly better. Last.

44:58

Season than I had been there before. What's

45:01

really interesting though, is. His

45:03

expected wapo. loud. Basically.

45:06

Identical even though the quality of contact with better.

45:08

Because he traded the striker he has the through

45:10

the counter a little bit more he threw arm.

45:13

Was. The other to I guess that the.

45:17

And. His curveball through a little bit more think and

45:19

and so. Those. Were pitches that

45:21

allowed him to keep the ball in the yard little better

45:23

and. Wherever I english

45:25

I just i dunno I'd at this

45:27

is one that I think. People

45:31

have the he's so good

45:33

so consistently. And. He's been

45:35

good for so long that people just over

45:37

think it is just air cools. going to

45:39

be great. Will he exactly live up to

45:41

his price? Maybe not, but

45:44

he is the best by far. I

45:46

think The safest starting pitcher and fast.

45:49

Yeah, I mean, I basically I

45:51

basically agree with all that, but

45:53

there is that kernel of doubt.

45:56

Maybe. We're whistling past the graveyard as it

45:58

is a drop of. Okay, per night and

46:01

I know I kind of wrote that offer.

46:03

Justin Verlander last year ends. With.

46:06

You know he won. The Cy Young is Justin Verlander. I'm

46:08

what are we worried about? And

46:10

then he ended up having not so great year.

46:12

He said that you know he is it was

46:14

it. It turned out to be a start of

46:16

the trend. Rather, Than just

46:18

this weird thing that happened. Of

46:21

the losses strike out ability Jericho went from

46:23

being one of the best Roka pitchers in

46:25

baseball to at least in terms of. Percentages:

46:29

And out on above average strike out pitcher.

46:33

He. Did of the said most strikeouts in baseball

46:35

now and that is the throne. A lotta

46:37

innings so. An.

46:39

Above average strikeout rate still adds up to a

46:41

ton of strikeouts when you're throwing a lot of

46:44

innings. I.

46:46

Will say that. You

46:50

know, I'd I'd for For those that the

46:52

The Spencer Strider, you're probably drafting him toward

46:54

the middle around one garrick home late and

46:57

round one. or maybe even early in round

46:59

to. I'm. More

47:01

likely to draft they're called and spencer Strider

47:03

even though I think Strider needs to rank

47:05

higher like if if I'm going to invest

47:07

that much in a starting pitcher and I'd

47:09

rather not. Know who? I feel

47:11

more confident with Garrick whole ultimately just

47:13

because he has done it so much

47:15

I thirty six seasons he's been the

47:18

number nine starting pitcher on average she

47:20

has that me are A with over

47:22

one point o six in that span

47:24

elder he's M E R A above

47:26

Three Five I like. It's just. We

47:29

spent too much time talking about your call.

47:31

This is kind of my is one of

47:33

those like and I'm not saying we shouldn't

47:36

talk about him, it's just for me. The

47:38

way I think about him, I just. He's

47:41

good. He's very good. In

47:43

fact, he won the Cy Young last year. I was gonna

47:45

say. I'm. Not

47:47

likely to take either one of Strider and

47:49

Colon has nothing to do with them, and

47:51

more so just. Roster. Construction in

47:53

our like to drive and I'm gonna

47:56

take a picture and browns three four

47:58

five six seven never it is. Where

48:00

I liked it or if it's up. Starting. Pitchers

48:02

Agricole we get according burns with an

48:04

eighty be of twenty one point six

48:06

years. The F P three off the

48:08

board former Cy Young winner himself was

48:10

traded to the Orioles took a few

48:12

weeks back and he's entering a contract

48:14

year. A big positive park ship going

48:16

from Milwaukee to Baltimore. strikeouts him off

48:18

are both going in the wrong direction

48:20

over the past two years though he

48:22

didn't prove in the second half did

48:24

one point out his T minus walk

48:26

rate. But. Then woke up better in that second

48:28

half. Not. Nearly as good as it

48:30

was. And twenty twenty two. Or twenty twenty three.

48:32

So. I have been more

48:35

reserved about court number of all all season.

48:37

I understand why people. Might. Elevate

48:39

him now that he's going from Milwaukee to

48:41

Baltimore Again, It's a better ballpark. It's. presumably.

48:44

A better team to be on as well. Ah,

48:46

but. I. Still do have my concerns. Ah

48:48

Scott is called and brings the clear cut as

48:51

p Three. The I mean

48:53

I think the trade to the Orioles

48:55

made him that I I, I had

48:57

him fist before that I wasn't as

48:59

worried as you were. I mean to

49:01

go from a one point one, four

49:03

whip and eight point six caper nine

49:05

in the first task, two point nine,

49:07

nine with ten point to keep her

49:10

Nine amino second half numbers are unquestionably

49:12

an ace. And. I be

49:14

a little more worried if it was reversed. Oh,

49:16

maybe Corbyn Burns. He has something going on physically.

49:18

there hasn't been reported or whatever, but of the

49:20

fact that he ended on. With.

49:23

On his highest note I think got.

49:26

A relieved a lot of those concerns for

49:28

me and then the move. The

49:30

Baltimore? Yeah. Going to a team that

49:32

won over one hundred games last year

49:35

And or. I don't know

49:37

the dog when the same number of games

49:39

but I think they're better now they're group,

49:41

they have more experience for their young guys

49:43

that acquired corporate burns. I think they're better

49:45

now so that will help is when potential.

49:47

And yeah, getting away from me American family

49:49

fields yet afford twenty eight? Yeah, right at

49:52

home. Last year. And.

49:54

It's okay. maybe that's because he wasn't

49:56

striking out as many guys know for

49:58

his career, his theory. Has been

50:00

seventy five points higher at home than

50:02

on the road. And

50:04

a lot of those road then use that

50:06

he was pitching in weren't even as good

50:08

as Camden Yards is now with the the

50:10

very deep left field fence. so. Yeah.

50:13

I think I think Corbyn Burns becomes an

50:15

obvious number Three I still think is. A

50:18

distant number. three. And that

50:20

he in my mind, Should. Be

50:22

drafted. A whole round

50:24

later than Garrick. whole, if not more. But.

50:27

He is now the clear number three

50:29

is is corporate birds are after Corbyn

50:31

Burns who make our way into the

50:33

third round of a twelve team league

50:35

where we find Zack Wheeler, kevin Guardsmen,

50:37

n Luis Castillo all with similar eighty

50:39

peace or Zack Wheeler at Twenty Six.

50:41

On average he is the for starting

50:43

pitcher off the board like Strider a

50:45

bit of an inflated he or a

50:47

For Wheeler three point six One Though

50:50

he posted the best walk rate and

50:52

best swinging strike rate of his career,

50:54

he continued to rely heavily on his

50:56

four seam fastball and the sinker velocity.

50:58

And both those pitchers a pedestal of completely

51:00

fine. He introduced a new sweeper last year

51:02

that he used twelve percent of the time

51:04

and it was a great pets for him

51:06

one nine eat batting average against a thirty

51:09

nine percent. with rates we were get up.

51:11

There are a bit in Aids he turns

51:13

thirty four and May, but entry a contract

51:15

year there have been some talk maybe till

51:17

extend before the season even starts. Chris I

51:20

have Wheeler as my s P three behind

51:22

Strider and Coal and he's really the first

51:24

picture I want to start considering just because

51:26

of. The. Floor, The Upside and where

51:28

he goes interest sometimes early to middle part

51:31

of robbery. And yeah I do

51:33

think core members is closer number to

51:35

them. Number for. Just the

51:37

way I rancor personally by. Birth.

51:40

There's really no case against Sack Wheeler

51:42

like. He has missed.

51:45

Roughly ten starts over the past six

51:47

seasons after having a lot of a

51:49

as you stay healthy early on in

51:51

his career so I don't really have

51:53

any concerns there. I think he's. An.

51:56

Ace In terms of the workload, I think he's an

51:58

Ace in terms of the be. Ratios

52:00

that you're likely to get. I would. Bet

52:03

on his Yara getting around a half

52:05

run better. From. The three six

52:08

one mark the he posted last season. I

52:10

don't really have any knocks on Zack Wheeler.

52:12

I just. I. Think Corbyn

52:14

Burns in Camden Yards is better.

52:17

But. I think Korea Zack Wheeler

52:19

as a. A perfectly

52:21

fine bad as the number for us. Piosa.

52:24

Let's. Talk about Covent Garden. And then

52:26

who is the Sp Five going just

52:29

behind Zack Wheeler? Twenty Eight Point Eight

52:31

is a D P. He's been a

52:33

very dependable over the past three years.

52:35

the third most strikeouts in baseball during

52:37

that span. Velocity and pit mix was

52:39

fine for seventeen months. For some odd

52:41

reason his we strike rate drops and

52:43

fifteen point five percent in twenty twenty

52:45

two to twelve point nine percent a

52:47

twenty twenty three. that would, despite the

52:49

strike, our is actually going up so.

52:52

Not. Really sure how I explain that one or

52:54

he does have a higher with than you expect

52:56

from an ace or one point one eight last

52:58

year, one point two four and twenty twenty two.

53:02

Scott. How much does it? Worry.

53:04

You aren't many were even the right word,

53:06

but. How. Much is that creep

53:08

into your mind when drafting chemicals in? the fact that

53:10

his with is a little bit higher? Does that maybe

53:13

mean you can't pair him with someone like a bleach

53:15

smell or a coat I single later on because actually

53:17

just. Really? Be terrible for you with. The

53:20

Nope. And I don't wanna

53:22

sound and it's unsophisticated. but. Are

53:24

at a double down on what I

53:26

said before. I.

53:28

Care way more about strikeouts than he

53:30

are, a whip I think it's can

53:32

be way more predictable and in this

53:34

environment especially. You know, It's.

53:37

Not like it's not like Osmonds gonna be

53:39

bad at yeah rain we've been all likelihood

53:41

is going to be a net benefit of

53:43

both. Audio. And

53:45

video, he's consistently been bad. Whip has whip.

53:48

That's the nice. One point two for one

53:50

point, one a pass to see if you're

53:52

drafting a pitcher as in the top five

53:55

in A D P n He gives you

53:57

a one point one, eight whip or worse

53:59

as. That one point one a where did

54:01

it for a given given how much the

54:04

league whip changed Love Roller in Rome and

54:06

I know it's relative to where he's been

54:08

drafted though. like if he's sp fifteen off

54:10

the board, that fine. But as

54:12

of this starting to drop the board. That's.

54:14

Hurtful? Yeah, like quarter miles the

54:16

recall of our members' gear. Or

54:19

Spencer Strider. Zack Wheeler.

54:22

Blast year. at least they

54:24

were all clearly. Better.

54:26

Than the number one. Team.

54:28

In whip when you look at bird the results

54:31

from last one point, one five three was the

54:33

number one team on average. Scavenge.

54:35

Author was more like number three. And

54:38

the thing that makes that tough is. That

54:40

your best guy? right?

54:43

Like that supposed to be that the anchor of your

54:45

staff and so I do think it's. It's.

54:47

Enough to knock him down I think.

54:50

see. Your. He tends to lead

54:52

sub one hundred ninety innings when all

54:54

these other guys tend to be above

54:56

that. That different for Spencer Strider, but.

54:59

If. He's gimme a fifty more strikeouts than

55:02

Kevin Gasman and and I do think

55:04

there is. Kevin. Kevin Dodman

55:06

have the second most strikeouts in baseball.

55:08

Writer I think what it was about

55:10

says I think there's reason to believe

55:12

he will regress last next seats because

55:14

thirty one point One is his career

55:16

high. And Thirty One point

55:18

one percent strikeout rate of his career high outside

55:20

Twenty twenty we know not account that. And

55:23

what that? The differences are relatively small. but

55:25

I just I think you're better off assuming

55:27

two hundred and ten to two hundred and

55:29

thirty strikeouts than two hundred and forty like

55:31

Yemeni had a one point oh for whip,

55:33

and twenty twenty one. Yes,

55:37

That's. Who it ended with in his

55:39

area the twentieth best with among qualifiers

55:41

last year. Yeah. The second

55:43

most strikeouts. it's a relative. We had the

55:45

to be fair seventh birthday or I I

55:48

have gotten and ranked as a tough hi

55:50

starter in both formats. I know. honestly I

55:52

got into why people are so down and

55:54

awesome and like the pitcher list guys were

55:57

didn't he greeted us government to i am

55:59

an annuity. I think he's I think is

56:01

an effort to is he's like he's proven it three

56:03

years in a row. I. Would

56:05

mostly agree. I just think if you take him to

56:07

do have to be a little bit more cognizant about

56:09

who you're as P to er s p Three years.

56:12

Because of the with but I maybe that's

56:15

just bounces back in he has like mad

56:17

with year of I mean I guess I

56:19

personally don't ever draft the pitcher who says

56:21

could have a witness gasman add so. I

56:24

don't know. I guess I has a different

56:26

standard for that are let's talk about Luis

56:29

Castillo also in this Rains thirty One Point

56:31

Six is a D P. The six starting

56:33

pitcher off the board seat been very consistent

56:35

since joining the Mariners. Forty four starts since

56:38

joining the team. or three Twenty nine. you're

56:40

a a one point one with two hundred

56:42

ninety six strikeouts, over two hundred, sixty two

56:44

and a third innings during that time of

56:47

fourteen point five percent swinging. Strike rate is

56:49

also become a different picture over the years

56:51

that rely as much on ground balls or

56:53

his changeup. It was more fastballs and

56:56

he does have one of the best

56:58

four seam fastballs in all of baseball.

57:00

He also as much better control than

57:02

he did in years past the read.

57:04

The only concern might be that he

57:06

does allow a lot of hard contact

57:08

and that each of his sip accepts

57:10

year and x erase tell us he

57:12

deserved something more like a three point

57:14

eight he or a group with. As

57:17

said, Chris. Reeve. Casio is one

57:19

of these proven aces. Again, I'm a kind of talk

57:21

audible said my mouth. I do like him. I like

57:23

him at the top six or seven starting pitcher. I

57:25

think he's funny. Yeah, I

57:27

think he's. A

57:29

much less sure thing for a very very

57:32

good he are I think haven't asked. For

57:34

example a guy I feel. I.

57:36

Feel better about Kevin Gasman crs

57:38

more than I do. Luis Castillo.

57:40

Because. Luis Castillo last year

57:43

at least. Had a real problem

57:45

with home runs. Like he said, he

57:47

gave a a lot hard contact Twenty

57:49

eight home runs last season. So I

57:51

do think. He. Have A.

57:53

The strikeout rate is good. It's not only the

57:55

walk rate is good, it's not only. So.

57:58

It's like. He's. Kind. I

58:00

think in terms of skill set, maybe it

58:02

a step down from the guys were talking

58:04

about ahead of him, but. He's

58:07

been. Relatively

58:09

healthy, All. Things considered, I

58:11

think Twenty Twenty two was the only time he's

58:13

been on the. Isle. In

58:16

his career. If I'm remembering correctly,

58:18

I'm. The. Only mid twenty Five

58:20

starts in two thousand, twenty, right? Yeah.

58:23

To add the shoulder to start the year so

58:25

that. Outside

58:27

of that, he's been very, very

58:29

consistent and very very healthy. I

58:32

think the home run rate probably knock him down

58:34

a little bit, but. It's also

58:37

a great park and he hasn't had that

58:39

issue in the past, so I. I.

58:42

Think it's okay to write it off and and.

58:44

He. Belongs in this range and I think is very

58:46

very good. Africa, As

58:49

the away it's is that Gallon who's a

58:51

D P is thirty five point eight. He's

58:53

the seven starting pitcher off the board and

58:55

Gallon had a great flick year last year.

58:57

but. And I doubt it a

58:59

masters maybe my words. Eleven point two percent

59:02

swinging strike rate is the lowest among the

59:04

seven names that we've talked about so far.

59:06

still as a lot of hard contact as

59:08

well. Ninety one point five mile per hour

59:11

average exit velocity that was in the third

59:13

percentile. Dallas. Expect to The array

59:15

was four point, one, six. He. Did

59:17

take a step back in the second half.

59:19

Is he or he was a Were for

59:21

he in a one twenty one with and

59:23

he threw a ton of aliens as he

59:25

mentioned at the tops two hundred forty three

59:27

and two thirds innings for Zach our last

59:29

year. He was asked about the innings when

59:31

he reported to camp last week. And.

59:33

He had this is a quote it doesn't

59:36

have to be two hundred ten innings. it

59:38

can be hey maybe less as peel and

59:40

ending off here cause they want we want

59:42

to save you know ten innings for the

59:44

post season. So. It's something there

59:46

cognizant of. Maybe you know he

59:48

isn't. there are many seminary, then he starts,

59:50

whatever and it's just like those just kept

59:52

met six innings. But the fact that it's in

59:54

their minds is at least kind of interesting

59:56

for me. Ah, Scott. I personally have a

59:58

pitcher who's lower and eighty. Ahead of that

1:00:00

gallon which means I I don't think I'm going to wind

1:00:02

up with a lot of in the surf. Yeah.

1:00:05

He's kind of earth and

1:00:07

untrendy picks it seems like

1:00:10

among the the The Fantasy

1:00:12

Eggheads an interim. I.

1:00:15

Get it to a certain degree. but I I

1:00:17

feel like we've been fighting this battle are certainly,

1:00:19

I've been fighting this battle with that gallon fruit

1:00:21

for three years now. I mean yes, he doesn't

1:00:23

have a great swinging strike rate. He

1:00:25

did have his best swinging strike rate in three

1:00:27

years. So. Like well, a

1:00:30

lot of the aces were becoming

1:00:32

less with task Sticky was becoming

1:00:34

more. With. Tactic. And

1:00:36

dumb. His fifth was

1:00:39

three Twenty six. You mention that the act

1:00:41

the x the are a was really high.

1:00:44

Ah, he got to being as. A

1:00:47

lead to. Control. Pets

1:00:49

are probably for the first time when that was.

1:00:52

In. In the minors, That was what stood out for

1:00:54

Zach the most. Was kind of strange how and many

1:00:56

guys he walked. When she reached to the majors, he

1:00:58

finally got to where he was thrown strafe like he

1:01:00

didn't. The minors. And you

1:01:02

know, within Cy Young contention right up until

1:01:04

the last couple weeks of the season. So.

1:01:08

I think it's probably another instance where

1:01:11

where overthinking it. And

1:01:13

Zack and is. You

1:01:16

know and I can't tell you whether his the

1:01:19

are is going to be mid tooth like and

1:01:21

twenty twenty two or mid three like and twenty

1:01:23

twenty three but I think the some of his

1:01:25

contributions will be very very positive. And.

1:01:28

The you know. Definitely

1:01:30

feel lot better than I did. At.

1:01:33

About that gallon now than when he was coming

1:01:36

off that elbow issue. And twenty twenty one and

1:01:38

recently was organ have Tommy John surgery that seems

1:01:40

to be not. At. All and occurred

1:01:42

in the. And on

1:01:44

that is hop certain anymore it feels a little

1:01:46

heads I win tails you lose. With Sat Down

1:01:49

where it's like last year it was like all

1:01:51

the we don't know if you can do the

1:01:53

work load of an ace. And.

1:01:55

Then this year he gives us the workload face

1:01:57

and it's like oh now we don't I. The

1:02:00

reason to fight it it. It feels a

1:02:02

little unfair, but I do think there are.

1:02:06

Legitimate question marks with

1:02:08

with Zach Gallon in

1:02:10

terms of like. Why

1:02:13

we're his peripheral so bad last

1:02:15

season. Yeah. Like that, that's

1:02:17

I think. Like why was he so bad

1:02:19

at quality of contact last year? That's.

1:02:22

A Stat The takes a really long time

1:02:24

to. Stabilize. Sudden.

1:02:27

Year to year changes probably shouldn't overreact

1:02:29

one way or the other. He was

1:02:31

elite and twenty twenty to use pretty

1:02:33

bad. And twenty twenty three. I.

1:02:35

Think he'll probably about be about average there, and

1:02:37

if you combine that with. Really? Good

1:02:40

command and good not great strikeout

1:02:42

rates is probably. A

1:02:44

load amid three the are I am. I

1:02:47

don't know how concerned with be about the health

1:02:49

at this point so. I think

1:02:52

he's fine where he goes. I think he's probably

1:02:54

the least likely of these guys to him. He

1:02:56

on my team and there is entirely a

1:02:58

world where he makes me look dumb Senior

1:03:01

Center Post Office. I will completely acknowledge that

1:03:03

I'm a little bit more worried about the

1:03:05

workload, but again, Can

1:03:08

make me if it's Papa Lopez. Atp

1:03:10

is thirty eight point six as he

1:03:12

eats starting pitcher off the board. He

1:03:14

got traded to the twins alas, all

1:03:16

season and revamps the pit makes. He

1:03:18

introduced a new sweeper that he's twenty

1:03:21

one percent of the time. It was

1:03:23

a great pets for hims. He increased

1:03:25

the fastball velocity from ninety three point

1:03:27

five mph to ninety four point nine

1:03:29

mph last year. He ranks very highly

1:03:31

in metrics that. We. Like

1:03:33

to use for starting pitchers. Fourteen point

1:03:35

five percent swinging strike rate that with

1:03:37

fourth best among qualified starters twenty three

1:03:40

point two percent he might walk rate

1:03:42

third best. Three. Point Zero Zero

1:03:44

X erase the best among qualified

1:03:46

starting pitchers. But. Ask uscap went

1:03:49

out. And. A know, maybe maybe you

1:03:51

will live up to that expected erase. I

1:03:53

did have some shoulder issues in the past

1:03:55

but has now. for one hundred eighty plus

1:03:57

innings in back to back seasons I would

1:03:59

take Pablo. The over that gallon I'd

1:04:01

I'd even close enough and eighty P

1:04:03

r But I guess like a fair

1:04:05

argument Chris, your thoughts on public as

1:04:07

your haven't missed the start and two

1:04:09

seasons far in in his last two

1:04:11

seasons. Was. One of

1:04:13

the best pitchers in baseball last year

1:04:15

by the various. Know when

1:04:18

at whether you are in direct Cia or

1:04:20

fair for Sierra. Whenever like pretty much unanimous

1:04:22

you rank the top five guy. He

1:04:25

doesn't pitch in a park that you

1:04:27

expect to be a park where he

1:04:29

would underperform is peripherals. Quality of contact

1:04:31

marks A really good. I

1:04:34

I do think. Papa.

1:04:36

Lopez. Deserves.

1:04:39

To be ahead of Zach owl and and

1:04:41

and a decent bit. Ahead.

1:04:43

Of sat down and my overall rankings. It's like

1:04:45

five spots. I guess that's. Not. Really

1:04:47

that big of a difference but flyer given

1:04:49

be a D P Given that sat down

1:04:51

and goes ahead I'm I'm much more likely

1:04:53

to take Pobl up as in a much

1:04:56

more excited. About I think the

1:04:58

underlying skill set that he showed last season as

1:05:00

much stronger. All of his pitches

1:05:02

pretty much and he he throws. Five.

1:05:04

Of them, but four of them more than ten percent

1:05:06

of the time. All. Of

1:05:09

them besides the sinker are very good. Swing and

1:05:11

Miss Patches. And none of them

1:05:13

are bad quality of contact pitch so.

1:05:17

I don't know. I think there's a world

1:05:19

in which Papa Lopez the number one, petra

1:05:21

and fantasy and I don't know how many

1:05:23

pitchers behind him. I can say that about.

1:05:27

So. I do think we need

1:05:29

to acknowledge Pablo Lopez's the first

1:05:31

picture with mentioned who's been a

1:05:33

fantasy is Just Wants last year.

1:05:36

We did. Discuss. Okay, he's giving you

1:05:39

a nice workload. Two years and Robot last year was

1:05:41

the first you were given. A workload.

1:05:43

And in a strikeout rate. And the

1:05:45

strikeout rate. I think there's a good

1:05:47

explanation for. At a velocity

1:05:49

and maybe even more so, the sweeper. So

1:05:52

he has the sweeper and the change of doubted

1:05:54

that can get him swings and misses. I'm hopeful it

1:05:56

can. Sustain. You.

1:06:00

Know he's He's not as proven as any of

1:06:02

the other dance with talked about a lot of

1:06:04

proven as at gala event. So.

1:06:07

I. Guess that's why I'm the hold out when it

1:06:09

comes to ranking. Sat down and ahead of Pablo Lopez.

1:06:11

Still, I'd move Pablo Lopez up so that he's

1:06:14

in that seem to your now. On.

1:06:16

It. Begins with Corbyn Burns and. Continues

1:06:20

even through Yoshino Boo Yamamoto.

1:06:22

but. Arm. But.

1:06:25

Yeah, I think Pablo Lopez in terms of

1:06:28

how proven he is. You

1:06:30

know we've We've only seen him do it. was. Worth

1:06:33

noting for surf. Let's talk about George

1:06:35

Kirby have that conversation. Atp Authority Point

1:06:38

He was a nice starting pitcher op

1:06:40

board the best control in all of

1:06:42

baseball. He was nineteen batters over thirty

1:06:45

one start zero point, nine watts per

1:06:47

nine. very clearly the best among qualified

1:06:49

starting pitchers. His boil for whip over

1:06:52

one hundred ninety and two thirds innings

1:06:54

with the third best with contribution in

1:06:56

fantasy last year torture be as a

1:06:59

great fastball was gained nearly one mile

1:07:01

per hour or went. From ninety five

1:07:03

point three mph in tweets when to

1:07:06

to ninety six point One but the

1:07:08

strikeouts are not. They're like other races

1:07:10

both is keep her nine and swinging

1:07:13

strike rate rank thirty second. Among

1:07:15

forty four qualified starting pitchers are strikeout

1:07:17

rate see jump to a tape of

1:07:19

any in the second half, which coincided

1:07:22

with throwing more splitters. Maybe get a

1:07:24

lot even more in Twenty twenty Four.

1:07:26

Ah, but Chris, This is one of

1:07:29

those pitchers where. He. Kind as

1:07:31

to talk yourself into it yet. but strikeouts

1:07:33

are going to com and that's why he's

1:07:35

going to be a top told starting pitcher

1:07:37

of I think the ratios are starting to

1:07:39

be good but we do still have questions

1:07:42

whether or not though strikeouts will be there

1:07:44

the I mean but one thing that bothers

1:07:46

worth keeping in mind is the or he

1:07:48

was three thirty five be x year I

1:07:50

was three ninety. Death. Last season.

1:07:52

the quality of contact matter for George Kirby

1:07:55

are not as good as you would expect.

1:07:57

I. Think. A

1:08:00

lot of people tend to assume that. Good

1:08:03

command equals good quality of contact. Matter ton

1:08:05

I think I got good example of a

1:08:07

guy like that was Kyle Hendricks. But.

1:08:10

Those that's not necessarily the case, and I

1:08:12

think you can. Reach. A

1:08:14

point of diminishing returns when it comes

1:08:16

to. Limiting. Walks in a way

1:08:19

that leaves you liable to to being to hittable

1:08:21

because you're in the strikes and too much and

1:08:23

maybe the splitters the way that towards kirby gets

1:08:25

around and if com can become more of a

1:08:27

swing and as pets. I

1:08:30

think the. The. Arguments

1:08:32

in favor of George Kirby. Being.

1:08:36

You know, in some cases a

1:08:38

top five starting pitcher. Some people

1:08:40

have him ranked, I think they

1:08:42

they rely on. At. Times

1:08:44

sort of tortured logic. Like

1:08:47

oh, the strikeout rate was up in the

1:08:49

second half. Kind

1:08:52

of what? But.

1:08:54

It was really. He had three starts at

1:08:56

the start of the second half, where he

1:08:58

struck out twenty six batters. Over.

1:09:00

The course of sixteen and. His

1:09:04

next ten starts yeah, fifty three strikeouts

1:09:06

and sixty two and strikeout rate immediately

1:09:08

went right back to about twenty two

1:09:10

percent. Maybe. The splitter

1:09:12

changes that? I don't know, but it's just. I

1:09:15

think he's a high score pitcher. And.

1:09:18

If you want. Good.

1:09:20

Ratios Really great whip. I think George

1:09:22

Kirby's a good bet to give you

1:09:24

that, but. Well. I

1:09:27

think we're We're assuming a lot

1:09:29

in putting him in the fantasy

1:09:31

Ace Tier. One, it's a

1:09:33

very limited repertoire of pitches he eats

1:09:35

staggeringly throws five or six pitches. Maybe

1:09:38

this. Again, I think a lot of

1:09:40

it comes down to kinda splitter be

1:09:42

that. Pitch. He can go

1:09:44

out of the strike zone with. If.

1:09:46

It can be than I think he. he does

1:09:48

have another level but. I.

1:09:50

Think he's a lot closer to Brandt

1:09:52

that to Logan Web than. He.

1:09:55

Is to. Luis Castillo. I'd

1:09:58

rather have Logan web. I.

1:10:00

Don't get his ranking. I don't get this

1:10:02

ranking for I don't get his ranking last year on

1:10:04

get his ranking this year I don't get. I'll

1:10:07

get what the deal is with George Kirby

1:10:09

to the not much of a strikeout pitcher.

1:10:12

He'd. Ever. You know he is a great control because

1:10:15

one the best controlled the she's yeah great with last

1:10:17

year. Also gives a lot of hits. He's. Very

1:10:19

helpful. His. Who. You. Know

1:10:21

as as. Far.

1:10:25

As good as his control. His. His.

1:10:27

Wit And twenty twenty two. Was.

1:10:30

One point two one because he gives have so

1:10:32

many hits. A gimlet his last year

1:10:34

to. It wasn't quite as many, so the whip

1:10:36

ended up being good. But.

1:10:39

If you're not a strikeout pitcher and. First.

1:10:43

Of on this environment again. I don't trust the are

1:10:45

and with contributions that much to begin with but I.

1:10:48

I think people are assuming a little too like I

1:10:50

guess that than to the as I'm oh yea I

1:10:53

get George Kirby as my ace and I never have

1:10:55

to worry that with again but I I don't think

1:10:57

that's true. I think. I

1:10:59

think there's a lot more vulnerability. dead

1:11:01

and people are. Factoring:

1:11:03

In style of us now. Forty Three

1:11:06

Point Six eighty p as the ten

1:11:08

starting pitcher off the board Traded to

1:11:10

the Dodgers this off season for Ryan

1:11:12

Happy Oh and outfielder Johnny the Lucas.

1:11:14

Obviously, the team concept context is better

1:11:16

with the Dodgers than it is with

1:11:18

a raise. But. It is a

1:11:20

pretty big negative part. Shift Once a point that out

1:11:22

the Dodgers. Are. First, it hold on

1:11:25

Park Factor in Tropicana Field in Tampa

1:11:27

Bay. it's eighteenth. Third, last now does

1:11:29

allow a lot of hard contact, so

1:11:31

just want to get that out of

1:11:33

the way we'll to deal with last.

1:11:35

Now he's nasty among starting pitchers with

1:11:37

one hundred twenty innings last year. Second:

1:11:39

a caper nine. Second, he came minus

1:11:41

walk rate. Second, inswinging for a great

1:11:43

seventh in stuff. Plus, you know, services

1:11:45

metrics up, but he's never thrown more

1:11:47

than a hundred twenty innings in the

1:11:49

regular seasons As the good news for

1:11:51

last year. I guess good news is

1:11:53

that. It wasn't in are related injury, it was

1:11:55

only an oblique injury or but yeah on hundred

1:11:58

twenty innings last year. Scott.

1:12:00

Do you take your injury risk?

1:12:03

With. Glass now in the fourth round. Or.

1:12:05

Do you may be seated for leader in the

1:12:07

draft for some a like Carlos heard on or

1:12:09

Chris Sale. You could say that you

1:12:11

want to take all them as since he got all

1:12:14

the risk and have all the outside but I think

1:12:16

that would be pretty scary of what do you think

1:12:18

about the risk versus water with our Glasgow. Well.

1:12:21

I do have blast now behind three pitchers

1:12:23

we haven't mentioned yet, so I guess some

1:12:25

lower on him than a D P and

1:12:27

I. I. I. Don't I can't recall

1:12:30

a time I drafted him yet. He does fit.

1:12:32

Kind. Of my. Mother.

1:12:35

My. Focus: it's

1:12:37

starting pitcher this year. Just draft for strikeout,

1:12:39

up, size it and let the chips fall

1:12:41

where they may. Okay, Glass now sits with

1:12:43

that model. But.

1:12:46

Even so, you know. It's.

1:12:48

Hard not to build than exceptions for

1:12:51

any model. And a

1:12:53

career on a high of one hundred

1:12:55

twenty innings from a pitcher and is

1:12:57

a season as thirties now, regular thousand?

1:12:59

yeah, yeah, think it's thirty am and

1:13:02

on the nose I'm a mess that

1:13:04

is such an extent that an extensive

1:13:06

track record of sitting more than you're

1:13:08

pitching. And that's. It's

1:13:11

hard to derive are you from that? At

1:13:13

Pets for Pets, I'm convinced Tyler Glass now

1:13:15

is the second best. Second,

1:13:18

Most dominant starting pitcher. They

1:13:20

were just ranking. These.

1:13:23

Pitchers in terms of fantasy. Upside to be

1:13:25

Strider: one glass number who basic response center?

1:13:28

Yeah. Hundred. And now

1:13:30

is that and for the Dodgers. So even better. I

1:13:34

fly. Yeah, I

1:13:36

in this is the struggle right? Last

1:13:39

year he was the number twenty starting pitcher.

1:13:42

In. One Hundred and Twenty Innings Btc

1:13:44

projections have him as number eight in

1:13:46

One Hundred and Thirty Eight x. The.

1:13:50

Problem is. He

1:13:53

hasn't third one hundred and thirty eight

1:13:55

innings in a season since Twenty eight

1:13:57

he he got there. And twenty eight.

1:14:00

The combined major and minor by majors in my

1:14:02

last year including the miners the at one hundred

1:14:04

and thirty five point one. So maybe it's not

1:14:06

asking too much, but it's just. And.

1:14:09

I'm I struggle to say. That

1:14:11

I see people on twitter Bob was

1:14:13

sadler at wrote a got on twitter

1:14:15

from our. Fcm

1:14:17

Fantasy. Tweeted was tired Last

1:14:20

out there is one hundred eighty

1:14:22

and and everyone's response was it's

1:14:24

impossible he'll never do and I

1:14:26

think that's silly as well. It

1:14:28

is extremely unlikely Tyler Glass out

1:14:30

there is one hundred eighty Six.

1:14:33

It's not impossible, Not impossible.

1:14:36

And this is one of my burger booze

1:14:38

about the way people talk about injuries and

1:14:40

they treat unlikely things as if they're impulse.

1:14:43

Power. Glasgow is probably among the

1:14:45

top of safety starting pitchers. The

1:14:47

biggest health risk. That.

1:14:50

Still doesn't mean he can't the one

1:14:52

hundred any a innings. just like city

1:14:54

alcantara attack this time year ago was by

1:14:56

far the safest. Of the

1:14:58

starting pitchers in terms of volume, he is

1:15:00

not pitching this year. We

1:15:02

are not as good as predicting these

1:15:05

things as we think, and so now

1:15:07

I am unlikely to draft hourglass. I

1:15:09

have been pretty critical of his price.

1:15:13

The. Opposite, it's so obvious what the

1:15:15

upside is that if he throws one

1:15:17

hundred and sixty innings, he's probably a

1:15:19

huge profit and hundred sixty is not

1:15:21

that much and lower every other pitcher.

1:15:23

The case for why? Even though I'm

1:15:25

a the lower than the consensus on

1:15:27

tie the glass now I still have

1:15:29

him in my top twelve, I could

1:15:31

still take him as my ace. In

1:15:34

theory. Is because.

1:15:37

In. This glob the world we're living

1:15:39

in. He is decidedly. Not

1:15:42

floppy like. E. Mail

1:15:44

They give you fifteen starts. They.

1:15:46

Are going to be impactful starts. You can

1:15:48

take that to the bag and that out.

1:15:50

That goes whether you're talking head to head

1:15:53

leagues or murder leagues but especially wrote a

1:15:55

league he be a is ratios. Okay,

1:15:58

You may hasta. Grab things

1:16:00

together at some point to make up for as

1:16:02

loss, but at least you've bank really good reaches

1:16:04

for the half season or so that he pitches.

1:16:08

And. I of course, there's no guarantee he

1:16:10

even gives you fifteen or. Ss.

1:16:14

Yeah. It is so I think

1:16:16

even tougher to do in a deep really so

1:16:18

obviously has been a mind if you plan to

1:16:20

fifteen team leagues. It. Harder to take on

1:16:22

risk like that if you plan to ten

1:16:25

team league or talking points leagues the replacement

1:16:27

values better so Tyler Glass or goes down

1:16:29

obviously better freedoms for you to choose from.

1:16:31

Plaza I think is a pitcher as. I.

1:16:34

Like to come up with these tombo the my

1:16:36

head like a categories league where if it's a

1:16:38

glass now. Why? Don't you pair him with like

1:16:40

a Logan Web or Framer Vault as someone who's. Proven.

1:16:43

Workloads one hundred eighty, a hundred ninety

1:16:45

plus any consistently and it it just

1:16:47

feels like it makes sense. Like those

1:16:49

two pitchers. Makes. Sense to draft

1:16:51

together One last point out how to myself

1:16:53

I was listening to an interview. He did.

1:16:56

With. Our the. Fair.

1:16:58

Territory Foul Territory South Heart hurt her.

1:17:00

Yeah it's they do a great job

1:17:02

at. I'd like to to tune into

1:17:04

their player interviews. Powered by sell said

1:17:06

he was only three one hundred twenty

1:17:08

innings last year. Regardless, Like. The race

1:17:10

told him you're only three hundred twenty unique. so.

1:17:13

I. May be lama going to say that the like

1:17:15

speak that injury or whatever it was the like he

1:17:17

said. I heard he might have the might have been

1:17:19

like shut down at some point. Anyway because they're like

1:17:22

you're only three hundred twenty innings this year cause he

1:17:24

was coming back from injury or that out there. It's.

1:17:26

Kind of interesting. ah from but Court

1:17:28

Aaron Nola has a Dps forty six.

1:17:31

Fifty. Six Point Six and the

1:17:33

alaeddin starting pitcher off the board and

1:17:35

signed a seven year one hundred seventy

1:17:37

two million dollar contract this off season

1:17:40

to return to the Phillies. This dude

1:17:42

is a proven a workhorse, has the

1:17:44

second most innings and third most strikeouts

1:17:46

and twenty eighteen. It's the most frustrating

1:17:48

part is the array. Over the past

1:17:51

three years it's been four Forty six,

1:17:53

three Twenty Five, and Four Sixty Three

1:17:55

yeah to roll up. That's. A

1:17:57

four point o line erase since the

1:17:59

start. Of twenty twenty one, my only

1:18:01

explanation is that when things go wrong

1:18:03

for know were. They. Go really wrong.

1:18:06

and maybe that's because he just pisses with

1:18:08

lower velocity than other so called aces right?

1:18:10

I mean he throws like ninety two ninety

1:18:12

three mph. So game like when things go

1:18:15

wrong for Nola they go really wrong. or

1:18:17

I think he works better and had had

1:18:19

points league because of the volume but I'm

1:18:21

stay away in categories leagues Roto yep any

1:18:24

like top class or a pitcher A D

1:18:26

P for me Scott in a category league

1:18:28

is too high. Yeah.

1:18:30

Aaron Nola has as one of the biggest disparity

1:18:33

the My Points league rankings and and broader rankings

1:18:35

cause you know it's it's really just that he

1:18:37

ah right right a double height that I'll stick

1:18:39

with you. And roto league and and

1:18:41

a head to head league. The individual starts

1:18:43

are the kind that are only accessible. The

1:18:45

aces i mean just is that starts all

1:18:48

look like a starts and then he has

1:18:50

these ugly starts said inflate his the array

1:18:52

and you could say okay Aaron Nola was

1:18:54

disturbed of victim of the environment a lot

1:18:56

of what a lot of pitchers dealt with

1:18:59

last to this blow up starts where he

1:19:01

allows eight earned runs except it's been to

1:19:03

the last three years where his.and that's really

1:19:05

that's really the hard part that's hard to

1:19:07

get past for me to the last three

1:19:10

years. In the are A and the for

1:19:12

five range from the supposed ace it's it's

1:19:14

it's a tough pill to swallow. The.

1:19:16

Or between that he are a with three twenty five.

1:19:19

And he really was like at the the

1:19:21

truest form of Ace. You.

1:19:24

Mention see your theory for why he

1:19:26

struggles I think is spot on like

1:19:28

his fastball. He has to locate

1:19:30

a properly to velocities lower, narrow margin

1:19:32

for error and and. He

1:19:35

actually talked about this heading into the post season

1:19:37

last year. He was good in the post season.

1:19:40

On. He thought he was living

1:19:42

too much in the middle of the played during

1:19:44

the season was bitter hitting the corner. Okay guy

1:19:46

has pristine control. Maybe he can keep that up

1:19:48

for a full year but I think is shown

1:19:50

twice now. That. It's.

1:19:52

Easier said than done. And.

1:19:55

His enough of an E R A liability that

1:19:57

I'm not going to draft in this range of

1:19:59

road. I thought he would be lower

1:20:01

than this. And. He would

1:20:04

be affordable and I was looking forward to that, but.

1:20:07

Atp has proven that is not so

1:20:09

and people are sit still valuing Arundel

1:20:11

the like an ace or would need.

1:20:14

I would need him more into my

1:20:16

in like the fifteen to twenty range

1:20:18

at starting pitcher to draft mid roto.

1:20:20

Again, points like a different story or

1:20:22

ten to fifteen works for me, I'm

1:20:24

points leads. Oh right. The fifth round

1:20:26

of a D P include seven name's

1:20:28

Let's see how many we can get

1:20:30

to hear in the final ten minutes.

1:20:32

Smack fried Yoshi, Noble Yamamoto, Logan web

1:20:34

search Google for Amber Valdez, Freddy Peralta

1:20:36

and Blake Smell who remains a free

1:20:38

agent. Let's talk about Mack Free. The

1:20:41

Atp is fifty as the twelfth starting

1:20:43

pitcher off the board and. He's always

1:20:45

been great, but he has elevated his

1:20:47

game over the past two years. Forty.

1:20:50

Four starts during that span. a toothy

1:20:52

theory A one all five with just

1:20:54

under a strike operating he has Greek

1:20:56

control limits, hard contact gets a ton

1:20:58

of ground balls. He's become a more

1:21:01

complete picture. Ah last year as well

1:21:03

he's not started throwing are more feel

1:21:05

like five different pitches he throws over

1:21:07

ten percent of the time He has

1:21:09

tremendous from support with the Braves. Obviously

1:21:12

Chris my only hesitated when Max fried

1:21:14

it's is that he was limited to

1:21:16

seventy seven into third innings last year

1:21:18

due to multiple injuries. including.

1:21:20

I sprained left forearm. Sometimes.

1:21:23

Something that could lead to you know, a

1:21:25

bigger injury down one. yeah I mean you

1:21:27

you said body if we can get through

1:21:29

the these max seven or whatever. But like

1:21:31

the nice thing is. For. Like

1:21:33

three or four different versions of the same

1:21:36

pitcher. With the midst of

1:21:38

I max freed from or Valdezs and

1:21:40

Logan web rob very similar and forty

1:21:42

broth and blink sailor kind of spiderman

1:21:44

me too so we just group all

1:21:46

those guys. Fried is a really, really

1:21:48

good pitcher. I don't think there's any

1:21:50

question about him when he was missing

1:21:53

time With blisters and hamstrings, it was

1:21:55

easy to write off. My. Thing

1:21:57

those were primarily be issues before that

1:21:59

for. Issue over the past couple years. Missing.

1:22:03

Three months with a strange

1:22:05

forearm is. A big

1:22:07

concern because forearm injuries. Often.

1:22:10

Though not always. Lead.

1:22:13

To elbow issues. On.

1:22:15

The other hand, he had a to seven ninety

1:22:17

or a over a spinal nine starts. He threw

1:22:19

at least one hundred pitches three times in that

1:22:22

span. There's risk here. But.

1:22:24

We don't have like a long track record. Of

1:22:26

are more elbow injuries for him. We just

1:22:28

have the one that happened last year. And.

1:22:31

Is very very concerning. But.

1:22:33

I think if Max Fried stays healthy, he's gonna

1:22:36

be a really good pets or you're gonna get

1:22:38

an E R N Lo. Threes, if not lower,

1:22:40

you're gonna get very, very good whips. I think

1:22:42

there's a lot to like about him. I.

1:22:45

Personally have him a little bit

1:22:47

lower than. The other two

1:22:49

versions of him in the same tier

1:22:52

which are. Logan were been

1:22:54

scrambled as but. I. Don't

1:22:56

have any problem with max fried. it's

1:22:58

just. A. Question of whether he's

1:23:00

worth the risk. I had to problems

1:23:02

with Max free. Not enough strikeouts. That's.

1:23:06

The problem I have with most teachers with the have a

1:23:08

problem with them. Than.

1:23:10

Half innings. I mean even if

1:23:12

even if her writing off the time mr the

1:23:14

for i miss you Lander the fluke which we

1:23:16

shouldn't. Only. Once has Max

1:23:18

Fried even thrown a hundred seventy and than a

1:23:20

season which is I have no idea why he's

1:23:23

ranked ahead of Logan Web for most people. I

1:23:25

mean you're to talk about low. The web been

1:23:27

Spiderman Okay, I wish blog web had a higher

1:23:29

strikeout rate to but at least load and web

1:23:31

takes on a lot of volume. And.

1:23:33

I'd much rather have that than than freed.

1:23:36

You. Know you get to the fact that oh, maybe.

1:23:39

Maybe. That for I miss you as a precursor

1:23:41

to more spawn That's why like I have frame of

1:23:43

others ahead of him as well. Just

1:23:46

as I think. For. Amber and

1:23:48

Logan were barb. Better. Bats

1:23:50

For Volume. Maybe

1:23:53

max fried as a better best for your

1:23:55

race specifically. although even that I'm not one

1:23:57

hundred percent sure. Logan web and frame promote

1:23:59

as of. Pretty good ear raise

1:24:01

themselves even if it's nice in that

1:24:03

mid choose range. The fried has been

1:24:05

the last couple seasons, so yeah, I

1:24:08

think he's clearly behind those to a

1:24:10

for no other reason than. They're.

1:24:12

Very similar in terms of skill set, and

1:24:14

he's a worse bat for thought. Let's.

1:24:17

Talk about Yoshi Noble Yamamoto Atp of

1:24:19

Fifty Point Eight as the thirteen starting

1:24:21

pitcher off the board. He signed a

1:24:23

record setting deal with the Dodgers this

1:24:26

off season. Twelve years, three hundred, twenty

1:24:28

five million dollars. The largest contract ever

1:24:30

for a pitcher twenty five years old.

1:24:33

Not only did he win Japan version

1:24:35

of the Side Young Award three years

1:24:37

in a row, He. Also won

1:24:39

the league and B p Three years

1:24:41

mean a row or he had a

1:24:44

silva one point seven he or A

1:24:46

and a sub point ninety three whip

1:24:48

in each of those three seasons. The

1:24:50

great you know. Sarris wrote an article

1:24:52

this all season scouting each of yamamoto

1:24:54

his pitches and he came to this

1:24:56

conclusion. Protecting. Forward obviously. Top

1:24:59

Twenty fastball in the game. The. Best

1:25:01

Splitter and Baseball. Only curve

1:25:04

and a week command Each of

1:25:06

us have Yamamoto right in our

1:25:08

top twelve. But scott, are you

1:25:10

actually comparable? With. Yamamoto as your

1:25:13

s p wanted Fantasy! Yeah. More

1:25:15

comfortable with ham than I am

1:25:17

fiberglass now that I am Aaron

1:25:19

Nola than I am Max Frida

1:25:22

are as an old I will

1:25:24

point out that. Okay, the composite

1:25:26

A d P is lower. As

1:25:28

as Yamamoto Lower than those guys, but. Most.

1:25:31

Of the individual website as Atp is higher than

1:25:34

those guys so probably are going to have to

1:25:36

draft of higher than those Guys are the top

1:25:38

ten starting pitcher and I think he's I need

1:25:40

worth it. Look most decorated pitcher ever to come

1:25:42

from Japan even though is just twenty five years

1:25:44

old. You mentioned the. The. Awards one.

1:25:47

Yeah. That you know Sarah's article.

1:25:49

He compared Yamamoto Splitter to Kevin Gasman.

1:25:51

His curveball the Max fried his control

1:25:54

the George Kirby. It was like. It

1:25:57

out the superlatives and each of those category.

1:26:00

The is what Yamamoto was being compared to.

1:26:02

We have stuff plus data from the World

1:26:04

Baseball Classic. Yamamoto I believe was the second

1:26:06

best. In. Stuff plus. And.

1:26:10

You know he he unlike code I think

1:26:12

I coming over from Japan last year. Yamamoto.

1:26:14

Doesn't have an injury history like he took

1:26:17

on lots of the. Last. Six.

1:26:20

Man rotations over there so to little different and

1:26:22

in the last to adjust to that. but it's

1:26:24

not like he has an injury history to worry

1:26:26

about either. And the So I'm

1:26:28

buying into Yamamoto as hard as I

1:26:30

ever had. Bought into. Somebody

1:26:33

he's come over from. On.

1:26:35

Another country to pitch in the majors. There.

1:26:37

Are there are reasons to be fearful?

1:26:39

Friday's never thrown in Major League Baseball.

1:26:41

That's a big once. He's. Never

1:26:44

thrown a major league baseball in a game.

1:26:46

The literally use a different type of baseball

1:26:48

I guess in the world beta more of

1:26:50

a for classic you how to use a

1:26:52

different type of baseball. In Japan as a

1:26:55

smaller baseball. Site. A smaller and

1:26:57

it's stickier. know? Pitchers.

1:26:59

Tend to like it more so that

1:27:01

that you I say that W B

1:27:03

C and folio valuable because we saw

1:27:06

that yamamoto the stuff still translates that

1:27:08

as your ball And for context. The

1:27:10

levy or a overs over the last three

1:27:13

seasons underpants three point two six in in

1:27:15

the league that yamamoto person account members it

1:27:17

was the eastern of essentially but it was.

1:27:20

The One Forty two. E

1:27:23

R A In that stress or even

1:27:25

given the context of the league, is

1:27:27

he or a was less than half.

1:27:30

The league Average: This is a. Twenty

1:27:32

five year old who got the. Largest contract

1:27:35

for a player who's ever played a

1:27:37

major league game ever. From.

1:27:39

The smartest organization in baseball. It

1:27:43

might go wrong, but there are lots and

1:27:45

lots and lots of reasons to think it

1:27:47

will go right. I'd rather have him the

1:27:49

George Kirby. I'd rather have

1:27:51

him than Tyler class. Now I'd rather have

1:27:53

him than Aaron Nola. Yeah.

1:27:56

A lot of the guys ahead of him I

1:27:58

would rather have and. Amara Love a

1:28:00

moto is part of the reason Chris. Why?

1:28:03

I feel so good about this. Round.

1:28:06

Three to six range, right, even if

1:28:08

you take hitters with your first three

1:28:10

picks. Were. Talking about. Even

1:28:13

if the eighties on the rise ram look

1:28:15

at the past month at the end pcs

1:28:17

the Dps forty five right? That's still fourth

1:28:19

round pick. You can take Yamamoto and then

1:28:21

double him up with someone like Logan Web

1:28:23

or Framer Valdez again guys who are proven

1:28:25

who are gonna give you the workload in

1:28:27

this the ability as do that I where

1:28:29

he goes in a draft I. I.

1:28:32

Would be totally fine with him at my

1:28:34

Is T one and then unlikely doubling down

1:28:36

with an sp to right over that and

1:28:38

dress as well. Let's wrap up today with

1:28:40

Logan Web. I want to see her school

1:28:42

for tomorrow because I think we have a

1:28:44

lot to say about Turks, Google or Logan

1:28:46

Web has made a P a fifty, one

1:28:48

point, four Tbsp, fourteen off the board. He's

1:28:50

been incredibly consistent three years in a row.

1:28:52

Between the two ninety and three twenty five

1:28:54

you're a each year. Between. A One

1:28:56

o' seven and one sixteen with. Each

1:28:58

year he led baseball in innings pitched

1:29:00

two hundred sixteen. Last year he met

1:29:02

before. ground ball rate and quality starts

1:29:04

from your plan, appoints league or any

1:29:06

type of. Category. League with

1:29:08

Quality starts moving web. It does dean value

1:29:11

in that format to someone that pisses backwards

1:29:13

his hands up as as most use pitch

1:29:15

or and it worked for him. The problems

1:29:17

with Web we talked about Murray the strikeout

1:29:19

rate is low for and as be won

1:29:21

or even sp to or the last two

1:29:24

years a seven point nine keep her nine

1:29:26

over the over that time it's obviously not

1:29:28

great but he's another one where I I

1:29:30

think you could pair him with guys that

1:29:32

have Freak Out Yamamoto, Earth Sangre Bikes now

1:29:34

or whoever you want a prolific powered Rostov,

1:29:37

you gonna do that. I'm. I

1:29:39

think chris the argument against George Kirby again is

1:29:41

that. You. Can this wait around and

1:29:43

and take Logan web I I really do

1:29:46

think logo added like. Part. Of

1:29:48

my mean starting pitcher strategy in

1:29:50

Fantasy this year year and. I

1:29:53

think there's an assumption that George

1:29:55

Kirby has more strikeout Upside them.

1:29:58

Mode and web and. I

1:30:01

get it to a certain extent because he does have

1:30:03

that splitter which is kind of an unknown factor, right?

1:30:05

Like may be back in. That.

1:30:07

Can push him to another level. We.

1:30:10

Kind of forget that Logan Web had a

1:30:12

twenty seven percent strikeout rate, and twenty twenty

1:30:14

one. How he has not

1:30:16

backed it up, right? Twenty Twenty Two? Who's

1:30:19

twenty point seven percent Last year? Twenty Three

1:30:21

percent. So. That's that's a

1:30:23

bad thing. but like. He

1:30:25

still has a pretty good slider as a

1:30:28

swing and miss pets that I think could

1:30:30

get back to that level. Potentially he's got

1:30:32

that change of this really gets we know

1:30:34

he's really really good at suppressing hard contact

1:30:36

and keeping the ball in the ground. He's

1:30:39

going to get really good results on balls

1:30:41

in play as as result, so it's It's

1:30:43

one of those situations where. I.

1:30:47

Get the hesitancy. I get the

1:30:49

he's not quite as sexy as

1:30:51

George Kirby. He's. A little

1:30:54

bit older he may be doesn't have

1:30:56

the forward momentum the George Kirby does.

1:30:58

but yeah I I can't really make

1:31:00

sense of. In.

1:31:03

The the Atp difference is about

1:31:05

twelve spots over right. Yeah.

1:31:08

I might be ten ten spots in a

1:31:10

D P. but yeah it's about around I

1:31:12

think in. An F

1:31:14

B C leaves. It's even greater if I'm

1:31:16

remembering correctly. S about to fall route as

1:31:19

you would have in the last be in

1:31:21

a month of February. Kirby is going up

1:31:23

pick thirty feet. Over. And

1:31:25

Logan Web is going at

1:31:27

sixty one so it's growing.

1:31:30

all was well and so

1:31:32

I work. Who I got

1:31:34

tired? his publicist. I can

1:31:36

see. How you get

1:31:38

there. I. Can see

1:31:40

how you can say Kirby's entering his

1:31:42

third season. Logan Web is entering. His

1:31:46

six season at the major league level.

1:31:48

And. I don't know, I

1:31:50

just I don't see it. I. Like, I

1:31:53

get it, I understand. When.

1:31:55

People make the argument, I see the words and

1:31:57

they all make sense, but I can't reach the.

1:32:00

Same conclusion. I think Logan

1:32:02

Web is a really, really

1:32:04

nice floor raiser. For. Your

1:32:06

staff and the same way that I

1:32:08

think George Kirby as a floor razor.

1:32:10

And if George Kirby has a higher

1:32:12

ceiling, I don't think the price justifies

1:32:14

that difference. Yeah. I

1:32:17

mean Logan web. He's

1:32:19

is lowered then in my roto rankings

1:32:21

and he might be and years just

1:32:23

because he's not going to give you

1:32:25

the strikeouts than I'm selling out for.

1:32:29

But. He is. One.

1:32:32

Of the best, if not the very best

1:32:34

in everything else we care about. Our

1:32:37

walks ground balls volume is

1:32:39

it more durable? Max Fried.

1:32:42

He's. Ah,

1:32:46

You know, if you compare them to George Kirby, I think

1:32:48

that works as well. He and I

1:32:50

will point out he is one of those

1:32:52

pitchers who is much higher and my head

1:32:54

that point like at that point he is

1:32:56

an ace. For me he's tenth in my

1:32:58

head to head points rankings is Logan Web

1:33:00

vs. Forties and

1:33:03

Roto Sonata isn't far apart as

1:33:05

I thought. But. Yeah.

1:33:07

I mean Logan web. If

1:33:10

those other non strike our guys are being

1:33:12

overvalued. Logan was gotta be. I gotta say

1:33:14

he's on provide for sure and for anyone

1:33:16

who's worried about the hard contacts he does

1:33:18

allow lot of at Logan web. It's

1:33:21

into the ground a lot of the time.

1:33:23

Yeah, that's what kind of helps. It

1:33:25

was a distant first and sixty two percent

1:33:27

ground. Alright, this is these are fan grass.

1:33:29

Number Sixty two point sent a present

1:33:32

ground ball rate with sixty four percent second

1:33:34

place proper Valdez. Worth noting: proper Valdez normally

1:33:36

closer to sixty. He had kind of

1:33:38

a down year and still finished second, a

1:33:40

ground ball rate among qualifiers. But yes,

1:33:42

Logan Web was way ahead of the wrestling

1:33:45

in that category last year. All right, we're

1:33:47

going around for Scott and Chris I

1:33:49

from. Thanks as always for. Two or

1:33:51

three, please make sure to follow and

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1:34:09

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1:34:14

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