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quote. Restrictions apply. Welcome

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to the fantasy foot maulers

1:31

podcast with your host Andy

1:34

Holloway, Jason Moore, and

1:36

Mike Wright. Welcome

1:46

in. You

1:51

didn't like it. I, it caught me off

1:53

guard. What

1:55

caught me off guard is that you've migrated from

1:57

your... Minnesota

2:00

gear you're wearing a another

2:03

baseball what is this? A sweatshirt.

2:05

Baseball stuff. The hometown team my

2:09

diamondbacks Jay. That's

2:11

his diamondbacks baseball. Sports.

2:15

See the difference between you and I

2:17

Jason and and some others is

2:20

that I got room to love a lot of

2:22

things and you don't have as much room. My

2:24

love is too big and too strong to be

2:26

spread out and weakened and deluded across all these

2:28

sports you don't have enough love. We

2:30

both have the same amount of love I

2:32

just pour mine into something and you're like

2:34

you get a little love and you get

2:36

a little love little love. Okay.

2:39

I'm gonna start calling you little love. Little

2:41

love. I don't love football. I'm big love.

2:46

Huh. Wasn't that a HBO show?

2:48

Yeah it was. With

2:50

polygamy. Yeah with Paxton.

2:53

Yeah. Big love.

2:57

Well that's the one I've made. Yeah

2:59

I mean but the irony of that is that I'm

3:02

the polygamist in this situation because I like

3:04

all sports. I'm married to all of them

3:06

and you just have one. You're monogamous. Big

3:09

love. With football. Yeah

3:12

well thanks for listening. Goodbye. Welcome

3:17

and one and all Judge Giamatti in the house. How you

3:19

doing? Excellent. Thanks for asking. That's

3:21

good. We got Papa Josh. Hello.

3:24

Still not the League of Record champion and

3:26

then Al Borland hiding over there

3:28

in the corner. That's me. We've

3:30

got a truth episode for you

3:33

today. At least I think we do

3:35

right? We do. Truth of quarter wide receivers. Wide

3:37

receivers. This is part one of

3:39

the wide receivers from the 2023

3:41

season and there are some real

3:43

fascinating things. I feel like going through the

3:45

data I learned quite a bunch.

3:48

So I hope you do as well. Jason does

3:50

put together the some

3:53

of the numbers back behind these episodes

3:55

and he does this next to

3:57

me in our office. And

3:59

you know It's gonna be a good show

4:01

when you hear him just out of nowhere like

4:03

he's plugged in like he's got ear pods in and Stuff

4:05

and he's working, but then you hear him just go. Oh

4:09

He'll just be like what No,

4:13

I mean I did I'll tease here

4:15

Stephon digs Stephon digs

4:17

as You reacted

4:19

the real just gap between first half

4:21

a second half of

4:24

all time In our data even

4:26

more than that one Adam feeling here you remember

4:28

that that feeling me

4:32

Yeah, so we'll get into it truth of the

4:34

wide receiver position today ten days away from the

4:38

big game as They

4:40

call it the big game preparation. I think is

4:42

what you mean, which The

4:45

UDK will be available in

4:47

ten days for pre-sale, which

4:49

means immediate access to the dynasty pass where

4:54

Our team is hard at work preparing the you

4:56

know the rookie class. Yes overviews

4:58

and our rookie rankings There's

5:01

a lot to go over. Yeah, absolutely. They

5:03

are they are crushing. We are starting

5:06

our Journey as well with

5:08

these prospects. So if you want

5:10

like if you play dynasty or even if you don't

5:12

play dynasty This is still really good

5:14

information to get ahead of the crowd in

5:16

but I mean if you love dynasty

5:19

The UDK plus gives you that the dynasty

5:21

pass has three

5:24

versions so to speak one that comes

5:26

out immediately and then there's

5:28

another update after the combine and then

5:30

a final update after the NFL draft

5:33

because so many things change throughout

5:35

them, but it is jam-packed full of content

5:37

if you're looking for For

5:39

like some fun football research stuff. It's

5:41

gonna be available very soon and

5:45

we do have a Speak another rookie

5:47

class. There was an overview episode of the

5:49

dynasty podcast that Mike and

5:51

Kyle and Bets were

5:53

on this week so you can check that out

5:55

the fantasy footballers dynasty podcast is a separate Podcast

5:58

runs all year long and

6:01

focuses on Dynasty, the rookie class, Dynasty

6:03

startups, all of that good

6:05

stuff. I'm

6:07

sure they're gonna tell me I have a

6:09

perfect team with Raheem Mostard and Mike Evans

6:12

and Kenan Allen. Yeah. Just.

6:15

It's on its way up. Yeah, I mean think

6:17

of the discounts that your

6:19

team will be getting with their

6:21

ARP cards. Are there

6:23

any jobs out there where like your

6:25

peak performance is right before you retire?

6:28

Like if you just think of any job out there in the

6:31

world. Oh, that's a new, yes. Where like you're the best of

6:33

the best of the best at the very, very, very, very end.

6:36

Very, very, very end. And then you say goodbye. I

6:40

guess are there any jobs where you get better progressively every year?

6:43

Man, I feel like it's gotta be, it would

6:45

still be in the sports realm. Like

6:47

there are some fighters who, you

6:49

know, they get better and

6:51

better and better and then it's over. Really,

6:53

they just end? Yeah, I mean then they just

6:55

get knocked out. Is that like a teacher? Does

6:58

a teacher get progressively better at teaching

7:00

because they pile up the years? Until

7:02

they get grouchy. Until, yeah. Yeah. You

7:05

say you can go too far as a teacher. Yeah, you get

7:07

old person grouchy. Which it happens to

7:10

the best. Yeah, even the best teachers will

7:12

one day just hate kids. You think the

7:14

producers? Hate children. Ah, these children. The deuces?

7:16

You think they'll get better and better and

7:19

better until we fire them? I'm waiting for

7:21

the first better. Just one step, take one

7:23

step forward guys. If

7:25

we fire them when we think they've reached

7:29

their peak, we could kind of fulfill this prophecy.

7:31

I'll make a note. Well, you're

7:34

not gonna have to. Because they

7:36

refuse to step forward and progress.

7:40

Right guys? Well, Al

7:42

Borland says bad news, I'm at my peak right

7:44

now. Oh, yeah, that is bad

7:46

news. Okay, well. Bad news

7:48

for you. We'll talk to you later. You

7:51

can find the show on X at the FF

7:53

Ballers. Follow me at Andy Holloway at JasonFFL. You

7:56

can find Jason there. And Mike

7:58

is at FFHitman. Watch the

8:00

show on YouTube, youtube.com/the

8:02

fantasy footballers. Subscribe, click

8:04

the bell over there and subscribe wherever

8:07

you're listening to podcasts or click that follow

8:09

button. They want it to be follow now.

8:12

Really? It's follow on

8:14

Spotify and it's follow on Apple. Subscribing

8:18

that is old. That

8:20

is old magazine stuff. Okay, unless you're

8:23

on YouTube. So that's totally correct. Yeah,

8:25

you're right. You're right. The

8:27

record is stoked. This is

8:31

where we're supposed to know the reference. Yeah, it's

8:33

fine. That joke's not for you. That

8:36

joke's for somebody else. You're going to get like 10 YouTube

8:38

comments. I hate it when you do this. All

8:41

right, quick question of the day. Before we turn

8:43

the page into some NFL news and

8:45

then the top 10 wide receivers, the

8:48

truth of that position, there was a player we

8:50

kind of didn't discuss at running back because

8:53

he didn't show up in the first two episodes

8:55

of The Truth. It

8:59

was not the year that

9:02

he had in 2022, but

9:05

I want to bring it up here as our quick question of the day. Nor

9:07

the year he had before that or before that.

9:10

It's Josh Jacobs. What

9:12

is the truth about Josh

9:15

Jacobs, his 2023 season,

9:18

he basically produced half

9:21

the fantasy football point

9:23

output that he did in his

9:25

record breaking 2022 year. He

9:28

did miss time, right?

9:31

He missed the final four weeks. Correct.

9:34

I think during that absence,

9:37

because every week it was like, Josh Jacobs might

9:39

play this week. Yeah, yeah.

9:42

He was like day to day for a month.

9:44

It started to feel more like Josh Jacobs might

9:46

want to go into the off season where he's

9:49

a free agent healthy. Yes. This

9:51

was a player

9:53

that held out, eventually

9:55

got into camp. What's

9:58

your thoughts on the season? for Fat Thor.

10:01

So the season was brutal. I think that

10:03

the truth is that

10:07

he is more of the player of those, like

10:10

his first three years and that 2022 was a,

10:12

was just magic where it happens. Sometimes

10:18

a player hits a true heater

10:21

and everything meshes, whatever the play

10:23

calling was, the offensive line, everything

10:25

was just the, the

10:27

Mojo was at maximum. But

10:29

so I don't think he,

10:31

I don't think it's done for Josh Jacobs, but

10:34

you know, 0.57 fantasy points

10:37

per opportunity. That's the lowest of his career.

10:40

And for last year, that's 47th of

10:42

50 qualifying running backs, also

10:44

known as just slightly better than Givante,

10:46

Madison and AJ Dillon. I

10:48

mean, like when you throw those names out talking

10:51

about last year, people want to vomit. And

10:53

that's kind of what we felt from Josh

10:56

Jacobs year. So I think he still has

10:58

some left in the tank, but the,

11:02

when 2022 happened and you were

11:04

like, this is it, Josh Jacobs

11:06

has ascended and become this

11:09

running back. I think the truth is just, he's a

11:11

very good running back, but maybe

11:13

that elite season was, that was the

11:15

top. I take a more

11:17

positive view on Josh Jacobs.

11:21

From last year? From this past

11:23

year. Yeah. Here's

11:25

my, my encouraging case for Josh Jacobs.

11:29

You went through a year where you were late to camp,

11:31

your head coach got fired, you had a different quarterback, you

11:35

had a different commitment to the run, you had a

11:37

different production on the offensive line. Obviously,

11:39

the efficiency numbers, standalone are terrible.

11:42

However, when you got a

11:44

new head coach who they now hired, right? Antonio

11:47

Pierce is their full-time head coach. Correct. Loves

11:49

Josh Jacobs, the team loves him. Jacobs wants to be back

11:51

for this coach. His opportunity pace over

11:54

the final five full games where he was healthy was

11:56

almost 400 opportunities and 350 carries.

12:00

But how was he doing in those? He finished his RB 10, 2, 20,

12:02

35 and 7. Okay.

12:05

So his output in those, so those are the

12:08

Pierce games? Those were the Pierce games, well that

12:10

was week eight through 12, I don't remember the

12:12

week he took over. But this was when they

12:14

showed a renewed commitment to the run and

12:19

the reception totals weren't where they were last year, that helped them

12:21

a lot. I do

12:23

wonder if he goes back, I'd

12:25

be very worried about him departing, but if he went back

12:27

to Las Vegas with Antonio

12:29

Pierce, I think he would be somebody I'd be

12:31

looking to add,

12:34

I think value running back. Do you

12:36

not have concerns for the breakout

12:39

of Zameer White over the final

12:41

month? That's where I'm- Not really, because the money that they'd

12:43

have to pay him to bring him back would be a

12:46

commitment. But a commitment to him,

12:48

but still would be, I

12:50

mean, I don't know how you put the genie

12:52

back after Zameer White comes in those last four

12:54

games and is, I mean,

12:56

like he was tremendous for them. It

12:58

feels like if they believe what

13:00

you're saying, like if

13:03

in the locker room, the Zameer White production

13:08

translated the way it is to you, then

13:10

they won't bring Jacobs back, right?

13:12

Why would you do that? You're not gonna pay a bunch

13:15

of money. If you believe in Zameer White, just use them

13:17

as you're running back. Jacobs may not find a very

13:20

open and welcome market for him, so

13:23

he could go back to the Raiders at just a

13:25

discount. Oh, he's taking money. He's

13:29

gonna take the money, and I'm guessing it

13:31

will be with the Raiders, the way that

13:33

Antonio Pierce has discussed these

13:35

two. And this is after Zameer

13:38

White's good performances. He

13:40

was asked about, he

13:43

was flat out asked the

13:45

question of, does Zameer's incredible

13:47

production while Josh Jacobs has been out, turn

13:49

this into more of a committee? And he

13:52

basically said, we're so thankful for what he's

13:54

done, but Josh Jacobs is our dude.

13:56

So if that's the way it was in Lock

13:58

Room, then... Amidst that happening,

14:00

if they sign and bring back Josh Jacobs,

14:02

I do think he's going to be of

14:04

value. I think there's going to be a lot of

14:07

people scared, a lot of people that don't want him because of the efficiency

14:09

numbers. But at the same time, when

14:11

he went down to injury, he

14:13

was actually the running back 11 on the season to that

14:15

point. He only had six touchdowns on

14:17

the season. The, you know, the previous couple of years

14:20

was 12, nine. So I

14:23

think he'll be of value next year. I

14:26

think... And I can even go higher. I can go higher. I

14:29

think he'll be of value. He

14:33

could be, but it

14:36

would be a matter of... He'd have

14:38

to get that ball. I feel like, yeah,

14:40

he would. But that's been kind of... You'd

14:43

love to see the targets go back up. I mean,

14:45

the previous two years, 64 targets, 53 receptions, obviously

14:48

missed a little bit of time. Maybe they would

14:50

have been pretty close, but does Brooks believe

14:52

in him? That's what matters for next year.

14:54

Because Brooks called the 2022 breakout, which

14:57

the reason that was such a valuable pick is because

14:59

people doubted him. Going into 2022,

15:01

it was like, you know,

15:03

Josh Jacobs, ho-hum, never over 200 fantasy

15:05

points. So Brooks, Jacobs

15:08

resigns with the Raiders. Is

15:12

he good? Oh, he's good. All

15:14

right. All right. Science.

15:17

Do you guys remember week two? Because I

15:19

did not remember this. That...

15:21

Yeah. He finished the game, 73% of

15:24

the snaps. So

15:26

he played, he finished the game with nine

15:28

carries for negative two yards.

15:30

Oh yeah, on the ground. He

15:33

had 50 receiving yards, so it was

15:35

not a collapse for fantasy. That game

15:37

by itself accounted for 0.2 of

15:40

his yards per carry on the year that

15:42

it dropped it. But

15:45

he's so young. He's still young and versatile.

15:47

So we'll see. So

15:49

in the fall news, I'm going to just breeze through this real

15:52

quick. No need for the drop. We'll just jump in. But

15:54

head coaches, we've got new ones. And

15:59

we have... This is a Mike McDonald thing

16:02

Mike McDonald, I don't know like he's

16:05

the Ravens DC right any He

16:07

was was and now the six-year deal

16:10

with Seattle to become their new headcoat

16:12

And I can't hear the name Michael

16:14

McDonald without thinking of the singer and

16:17

that will just be it'll be an enjoyable thing

16:19

for you That happens inside my brain every time

16:22

so a new head coach for Seattle Because

16:24

because Ben Johnson was not gonna be their head

16:26

coach nor was he gonna be the head coach

16:29

of the Washington commanders he

16:31

goes back to Detroit as

16:33

does Bobby Slovak the offensive coordinator

16:35

for the taxes Such

16:37

good news for a helpful for us.

16:39

Yes, we will be smarter because we

16:42

will know what to expect for these

16:44

two teams and Ben

16:46

Johnson look I have thought a lot about this.

16:48

I Think he made

16:50

the right call on many levels on

16:52

one level. I just respect anybody that is You

16:56

know, they're obviously the underpinnings of

16:58

the NFL coaching world is a

17:01

progression like you just want to progress progress

17:03

progress progress and then get your opportunity to

17:05

be a head coach and he may not

17:08

get That opportunity by passing here, right?

17:10

Obviously if they struggled next year the

17:12

window could close for him. However The

17:15

jobs this year. I

17:17

think they're better next year I don't think

17:20

that going I know Washington aside draft capital But

17:23

if you take that one nuanced piece out

17:25

of the equation Like it's

17:27

that's a tough franchise to win with okay, they've gone

17:30

through a lot of coaches. I know they have a

17:32

new ownership whatever next

17:35

year could be Can't

17:37

you know, you're always gonna be looking at Kansas City and

17:39

whether Andy Reid leaves Dallas is going

17:41

to be always a one Season

17:44

away from firing their head coach Dallas could be

17:46

a landing spot for work here. There's

17:48

talking Philadelphia, you know if they struggle again They've

17:51

already fired and hired all the other coaches except for

17:53

the head coach Philadelphia could be

17:55

on the board next year like there are opportunities That

17:58

to me seem like You know what,

18:00

Ben Johnson, two solid years with

18:03

the Lions, if he

18:05

wants to go get that job. But this is great for golf,

18:07

this is great for Almond

18:09

Ra, Sam LaPorta,

18:12

for sophomore slump. I don't

18:14

think so. It's so fantastic

18:16

for fantasy football. And

18:19

I'm for it. Like

18:22

the leak that came out, whatever it was, a

18:24

month or so, a month or two ago, we're

18:28

hearing Ben Johnson wants, I

18:31

think it was like $15 million a year. $150

18:33

million. It was an amount

18:37

of money that is like,

18:39

no one's going to pay that. And maybe

18:42

teams around the league said, we're not going to pay

18:44

that. But that's

18:46

beautiful for Ben Johnson.

18:48

Like, okay, either

18:52

you give me generational wealth, and I come and

18:54

try and be a head coach, or I go

18:56

back to this team that was one

18:59

half away from the Super Bowl. That's a good

19:02

life. And then I'll do it

19:04

next year. Yeah, and he more than likely will

19:06

still be a hot candidate next year. Maybe

19:08

Jared Goff and company, they fall on their

19:11

faces next year, but that seems

19:14

unlikely. Yeah, and Bobby

19:16

Sloak going back to the Texans is great too.

19:18

Oh, that one makes me- continuity for a young

19:20

quarterback in that offense? That one makes me even

19:22

happier because when you only,

19:25

like I believe in Stroud, I think that

19:27

he would have been good with or without

19:29

Sloak. But the Detroit

19:31

Lions offense is, it's

19:34

already established. There's enough veterans

19:36

there with Montgomery and Goff.

19:38

And I think if they

19:41

lost Johnson, they would have been

19:43

okay. They would have been fine. But I would

19:45

have been more fearful for the

19:47

Texans offense with all the youth

19:49

there when you have a

19:51

change at coordinator. So that one makes me thrilled.

19:54

Yeah, and he'll have opportunities if he succeeds again

19:56

next year as well in the- Spoiler

19:58

alert. going to. CJ

20:01

Strauss is awesome. Yeah, so and then

20:03

let's not bury the reaction everybody really

20:05

wants. I think 18

20:07

minutes 40 seconds into the show, I think most

20:09

people have waited for right here, right now. We've

20:13

got a new offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers and

20:15

his name is Arthur Smith. What?

20:17

What? The people

20:19

are happy? Crazy.

20:23

I'm happy. I'm with the people.

20:25

The reactions on Twitter are

20:28

they've been electric because it is so

20:32

polarizing and not just everyone

20:35

dunking on Arthur Smith. I've seen everything

20:38

from the Steelers

20:40

will be like I will be

20:42

a full fade of every Steelers

20:44

player. This is going to be a disaster to

20:47

people who are like Najee Harris

20:49

is back baby. He's gonna get fed

20:51

the ball and so it's

20:53

it's funny to see one

20:56

person here just but the opinions could

20:58

be so split on

21:00

them but it's whatever

21:03

it's great for the show. I'm a little

21:05

surprised Pittsburgh went this direction but he Arthur

21:08

Smith did have success

21:10

in Tennessee as the OC. Arthur

21:12

Smith had it had success in

21:15

Atlanta. What Arthur Smith did

21:17

not have was the support of fantasy

21:19

managers because they drafted Bijon and did

21:21

not turn him into a workhorse. That's

21:23

why we hate him. He didn't have the support of

21:26

the ownership of the team because he drafted Bijon

21:28

and then didn't use him properly. Sure. No I

21:30

get that but my point is they ran the

21:32

ball well as a team. So well with players

21:35

that didn't make sense. Who was the Caleb Huntley?

21:38

Mm-hmm Caleb Huntley showed great. I mean

21:40

you had Tyler Algier. The system is

21:42

perfect. Break the Atlanta rookie record the

21:44

year prior. So you know it was

21:46

it was super frustrating and maybe you're

21:48

gonna see some of that. Thankfully

21:51

people aren't madly in love with Najee the

21:53

way they are with Bijon. So we're gonna

21:55

we're gonna already forgive a committee here but

21:57

I do think he's going to be very

22:00

good for their running game and obviously had Derek

22:02

Henry before and he had Bijon

22:04

but he's he's I

22:06

think he's not the worst

22:08

offensive mind he's really not he's just

22:10

frustrating from a personnel standpoint but I

22:13

think in Pittsburgh that's gonna

22:15

be just fine I

22:17

agree and I think I've already seen the

22:19

free Jaylen Warren tweets and you know I

22:22

think that'll be the popular candidate next

22:24

year but I'm gonna I'm just gonna

22:27

say it oh I think for

22:29

the first time in my life you might

22:31

find me on the other side of the

22:33

nausea argument based on draft position next year

22:35

which look you guys may think I'm just

22:37

a hater but I only hate

22:40

him as a player and a person

22:43

oh okay okay yeah what how dare

22:45

you know I'm just a great person

22:47

yeah and a good player

22:49

in the right system and situation the

22:52

truth is is I have not liked where people drafted

22:55

him nor what they think his ceiling can be but

22:57

when you were put into a system like this

22:59

the production he had at the end of the year yeah

23:01

I mean his ADP last year was

23:04

the RB9 I'm not signing up for that that's

23:07

a cancel the subscription situation

23:09

for me but all

23:12

right we'll take a quick break and we'll come back with some truth hey

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24:44

right. Well, we are done talking about

24:47

head coaching changes, although we

24:49

will have a coaching changes episode breaking

24:51

all the implications down well

24:53

beyond Arthur Smith later

24:55

on this offseason. Right now it's

24:57

time for the truth of the wide receiver position. You

25:04

want answers? You want answers? You want

25:06

answers? You want answers? You want answers?

25:08

You can't handle the truth. Well,

25:15

can we handle the truth of

25:18

some of these wide outs and what in the

25:20

world is going to happen with them in

25:23

the 2024 redraft season? Let's

25:27

talk about some trends. We've been doing this at every position.

25:31

Looking at trends of the wide receivers

25:33

since back in 2018, the

25:36

value of the wide receiver target has actually

25:38

gone down over the last few years. The

25:41

zone defenses you're seeing out there are

25:44

forcing a bunch of- Vanish them. You

25:46

know- Pull a baseball. Oh,

25:49

yeah. No more- Your defense

25:51

is working too well. No more defensive shift. We

25:54

need to change the rules. I

25:56

am still waiting for them to just pull

25:58

a 10 on D. defenses all

26:00

to loud. Yeah, baby. Just pull somebody up.

26:02

But look, this has resulted in more short

26:05

area targets for the wide receiver position. 11%

26:08

of the targets were behind the line of scrimmage. It's the highest

26:10

since 2018. You'd think

26:12

that Cliff Kingsbury was in charge of doing that.

26:15

Maybe that's why he's getting a lot of interviews

26:17

lately is because they- It's so hot right now.

26:19

They're just like, man, why throw it forward when you

26:21

can throw it backwards? Short of the

26:23

sticks? How about short of the line of scrimmage? Yeah.

26:26

I mean, this is true. It's part

26:29

of the- Anything behind the line of scrimmage is technically

26:31

a run for the wide

26:33

receiver position. And you're

26:35

seeing more wide receivers using the right- No.

26:38

It's not if it's a forward pass. Correct.

26:41

I'm sorry. I meant behind- Yes, I mean, lateral.

26:44

Anything that's backwards. Yes. Backwards

26:46

pass. Of course. Sorry.

26:48

Not the line of scrimmage, but backwards in direction. But

26:53

there's the more wide receiver rushing

26:55

attempts than we've seen

26:58

in a really long time. More

27:00

end arounds. Teams

27:03

are putting more wide receivers in

27:05

motion. You're seeing more innovative stuff where, I

27:08

mean, every time you watch Tyree Kill on

27:10

the Miami offense- Well, it's the defenses are

27:12

now more than

27:14

ever scheming to stop the big

27:16

play. That

27:18

seems to be at the top of the

27:21

defensive assignment. Stop

27:24

the huge plays, which, I mean,

27:26

it's smart. Obviously, we've seen, you know, saw

27:28

the scoring and things going down. If

27:30

you stop the big plays, you're more

27:32

likely to have an accident and have to punt.

27:37

And yeah,

27:39

Kyle put together a list of the top

27:41

six teams of percentage of motion at

27:44

the snap. Miami is ridiculous. Sixty-eight

27:46

percent of plays. You know what I mean? But it's,

27:48

you know, very funny. So,

27:51

number one, Miami. Let's see.

27:54

Great offense. The

27:56

Rams. That's a great offense. Forty-niners. Oh,

27:58

that's a great offense. the Green Bay Packers.

28:01

Well that's a great offense. The

28:03

Detroit Lions, well, Baltimore Ravens, hey

28:06

weird. Weird. Why and

28:08

look at who's dead last in the

28:10

entire league and who just got fired.

28:12

Yeah the Philadelphia Eagles. 10.9% of

28:15

plays and they

28:18

just they just brought in the

28:20

new offensive coordinator. Followed by the

28:22

Browns, Cardinals, and commanders. So what's

28:25

weird? Let's get some motion going

28:27

on in there. We did

28:29

have some very high-end fantasy seasons

28:31

at the tippy top of the

28:33

position though. Kyle took a look at

28:35

every top 12 wide receiver over the last

28:37

five years. So that's 60 different

28:39

wide receivers and you had four this

28:42

season that would finish in the top 12

28:44

of that group. So you had

28:46

just some massive performances. Invointing points per game.

28:48

That's right. I mean you had elite seasons

28:51

from C.D. Lamb, Tyree Kill, Ammon

28:53

Ra, Keenan Allen. In terms

28:55

of points per game obviously Allen missed time later

28:58

in the season but you had some wide receivers that

29:00

were going off and leading to championship

29:03

game appearances in championships. Man

29:05

halfway through the season could you imagine that Tyree

29:08

Kill even missing a game doesn't

29:10

finish as the number

29:12

one. Yeah. C.D. was so

29:14

good. Yeah and I

29:17

really loved him. Big

29:20

love. Alright let's

29:23

dig in because we're gonna start with

29:25

C.D. Lamb. Great games of the wide

29:28

receiver position were categorizing 20 plus

29:31

points. Good games 12 and a

29:33

half points. Bus games fewer than seven and a half.

29:36

C.D. Lamb came in at number one.

29:38

He was number two

29:40

in consistency. First

29:43

half was number six in consistency. Second

29:46

half was number one overall. He

29:49

only busted in six percent of games. He was good in

29:51

82% so again

29:53

82% of the time

29:55

12 and a half or more fantasy points

29:58

and 41% of the time It

30:00

was great that numbers insane.

30:03

I mean pretty much from the

30:05

bye week they came out of the bye week and they

30:07

were like We're

30:09

gonna just throw you the ball the offense

30:11

changed more than everybody in football because he

30:13

ended up with 135 receptions and We'll

30:18

just let the chips fall with CD lamb

30:20

as a centerpiece. Yeah, the the offensive scheme

30:22

of the Cowboys 100%

30:25

changed after the bye week and

30:29

they went with a CD

30:32

lamb is the focal point of this

30:34

there is the the narrative. I don't know

30:36

if we have ever confirmed it, but the talk

30:39

of CD lamb over

30:41

the bye week ago, you know having a

30:43

meeting with coach McCarthy and Kind

30:46

of saying like get me the ball because

30:48

the while he was Still

30:50

pretty consistent fantasy wise over the the

30:52

first half, you know Some of the

30:55

games after the bye week leak into

30:57

that but the way that the

30:59

season started for CD lamb was

31:02

really hot and cold and Like

31:05

if you had if you drafted lamb You

31:08

you remember it like it was not all

31:10

roses You had week three. He

31:12

was the wide receiver 43 against Arizona like

31:15

that was but that was it was also

31:17

very strange because the Cardinals won

31:19

the game and the Cowboys

31:21

just Got shellacked to next week. He's

31:23

pretty good against New England and then

31:26

the the Cowboys against San Francisco it's

31:28

a disaster for CD lamb and then

31:31

the offense changed the the

31:33

question for me about CD lamb for you guys is

31:37

Was this a true? Was

31:40

this like the level up? Yeah for CD

31:42

lamb or was just just he's great He's

31:45

an elite player, but this was this was

31:47

something special or we're now putting him at

31:49

a different level This is who he is.

31:51

He is he is one of the you

31:53

know Absolutely

31:55

one of the five best wide receivers in the

31:57

NFL. He's gonna be treated as such He's

32:00

going to be used like it. Their

32:02

offense was great doing

32:04

this, and he's just unstoppable. I

32:07

mean, there's certain guys, you know,

32:09

like, you know, you're,

32:11

you're never going to go away from Justin Jefferson

32:13

if you have a coordinator change. And

32:15

in my opinion, CD lamb

32:17

looked unstoppable. You just keep throwing on

32:20

the ball. It just keeps working. He's

32:22

open. If he's not open, he still catches it. He's

32:25

just so good. And, and from that point,

32:27

from that bye week forward, he

32:29

was not, he was the

32:31

number one wide receiver, obviously, but he was

32:34

a huge gap

32:36

ahead of number two, you

32:38

know, he, he scored 23.9 half PPR points per game

32:42

during that stretch. The second best was 17.4.

32:47

He was humongously ahead

32:49

of the field. What

32:51

I loved about CD lamb and the fact that,

32:53

look, you keep your head coach, right? That's a

32:56

big deal. If you wanted to question

32:58

the variables, they're going to have the same quarterback.

33:00

You're going to have the same head coach and

33:02

it really, really worked. And they move him around. If

33:05

you watch the games, yeah, they do. They move

33:07

them all the time. Like there is no scheme.

33:09

Like of all, I guess Tyreke is in that

33:12

category of like, you can't really scheme yourself out

33:14

of having to deal with Tyreke, but

33:16

CD lamb moves all over the formation. He comes out

33:19

of the slot. They, they, they, you know,

33:21

put him in the backfield sometimes like

33:23

his, he's just too integral into this office that I

33:25

agree with Jason. I think he has fully

33:27

leveled up. I mean, this was a season of

33:29

seasons too. Like that 2021 Cooper cup

33:31

year. That's

33:34

the only one that is at that

33:36

135, you know, reception total 12 touchdowns.

33:39

I mean that superstar

33:41

wide receivers are going to have some variability in

33:43

touchdowns from year to year. So it's not

33:45

going to shock me if CD lamb has nine next year

33:47

or eight or, you know, wherever the case may

33:49

be, but the, the volume will always

33:51

be there. So third and deep

33:53

perceptions, third and intermediate, first and short.

33:56

Do you have dynasty

33:59

wise? It's

34:01

been, for the last couple years, it's been the

34:03

big two. It's been Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase.

34:05

Is C.D. Lamb

34:07

there, or is it those two guys, then C.D.

34:09

Lamb, and then we have a third team? No,

34:11

he's there for me. Okay. Do

34:14

you have one? I'm comfortable with him there, yeah. All

34:16

right. Like, I mean, if you just

34:18

muse for a second. I was

34:20

like, having Jamar Chase and C.D. Lamb on one

34:22

Dynasty team? You wouldn't want

34:24

to imagine what that'd be like? Why'd you do that, Andy? Why'd

34:27

you walk into that trap? Yeah.

34:31

And C.D. Lamb should be

34:34

on my Dynasty team. No, no, he's good.

34:36

He's where he belongs. With the chain. You

34:39

never paid me for talking him into the trade,

34:41

by the way. Yeah, well, I had my

34:43

fingers crossed. You

34:46

know, where was I going there? Oh, sorry. I

34:48

was going with how you were going to draft those three. That's

34:51

what I, in a, in a redraft league, how

34:53

are, how are you going to look at those three players and

34:55

like, are you

34:57

taking Jefferson Chase ahead of Lamb and all of, you know, are

35:00

all three of you doing that? Wow.

35:03

You're a redraft. I think I

35:05

am. I think in a redraft, I'm Jefferson Lamb

35:07

Chase. I would as well

35:09

accept in a redraft, I might have Tyreek

35:12

above Chase as well. Yeah, no, no,

35:14

I agree with that. Just here

35:16

in, you know, January 31st, looking

35:19

at next year. But Jefferson still has a quarterback

35:21

issue that needs to be solved. Speaking

35:24

of Tyreek Hill, he

35:26

was the most consistent wide receiver in all of fantasy

35:29

football. He's number two in fantasy

35:31

finish. His first

35:33

half of the year was number one, most consistent. Second half

35:35

of the year is number two, most consistent. Zero

35:38

bus games. Zero. Yeah.

35:41

Other than, you know, injury games, we don't count. 75%

35:44

good, 56% great. Like

35:49

he won weeks regularly, especially

35:52

looking from like week five to 13. I

35:55

mean, it is, it

35:57

is hard to do what he did. He was

36:00

very similar. to his teammate where he

36:02

most hurt who had one of the best

36:04

seasons one of the most helpful fantasy seasons

36:06

we've seen him forever but

36:08

ruined the only down time was in

36:10

the playoffs where he missed week one of the playoffs

36:13

and then didn't really go his

36:15

normal self in the championship round

36:17

so I you know it

36:20

felt like it tailed off at the end but

36:22

it really didn't it was just an injury that

36:24

he played through and was still

36:26

good he deserves to be until he

36:28

retires he deserves to be at the

36:31

tip top of confidence

36:33

yeah and obviously at the very top

36:35

of these lists you don't need us to tell you these players

36:37

were great but when you have

36:40

the opportunity to break down the numbers a little bit see

36:42

why they were great you know he

36:44

won people fantasy championships or got them

36:47

all the way there and

36:49

he wasn't undefendable

36:52

player I mean just destroys

36:55

man coverage destroy zone coverage he

36:59

was we watched him all year long and

37:01

just went like oh how's he that open

37:03

yeah 21 receptions of 20 or more air

37:06

yards which is more than

37:08

any that he had playing Lopatra my home

37:10

and 70% of his receptions

37:12

went for a first down he's

37:15

the only player since Randy Moss where

37:18

you're just like a deep ball is gonna work this game every

37:20

game yeah like you would think that you

37:22

could turn that off like you

37:24

could somehow turn off time you kill going

37:27

deep and you can't I think him and

37:29

Tua before the game go okay okay okay

37:32

what's today's today I throw it you

37:34

know vastly under throw it or

37:37

you want me to vastly overthrow and then they

37:39

just do this and they both work they both

37:41

work you just don't throw it to them throw

37:43

it really far away from them in

37:46

either direction it will slow down or speed up and get

37:48

the ball so I think

37:50

I think we can move on number three alma

37:52

and ross ain't brown this one's great this

37:55

was a player drafted as wide receiver nine

37:57

ends at three consistency

38:00

three first half three

38:03

second half three now that's consistent

38:05

that's i mean amazing

38:08

so finishes at three

38:11

third most consistent doesn't matter

38:13

how you split the year up 81 good games 31

38:15

great six percent bust 119

38:19

receptions for 15 115

38:21

yards you know what i

38:23

didn't realize he was this good uh yes 10

38:26

touchdowns 164 targets is perfect this

38:34

was a heck of a year and he has just leveled

38:37

up every season like the chip on his

38:39

shoulder that when you have a

38:41

chip on your shoulder does it get bigger over time

38:43

or smaller over time most people get smaller over time

38:45

but his is getting he continues to add to it like

38:48

finds another jordan reason to be

38:50

upset yeah hundred so he went

38:52

from 90 receptions to 106 to 119 my

38:56

favorite part about alman rasim brown

38:58

is it's it's

39:00

done in a completely different fashion than tyreke

39:03

but the consistency is there

39:05

because you know how much

39:07

of the first read he is in

39:10

this office and you can't really guard

39:12

what he does it's different tyreke does

39:14

it with speed alman ras does it

39:16

with route running and great hands where

39:18

it's just the play

39:20

is coming to you at this

39:22

exact spot in this exact moment and there's just no

39:25

way you could stop it so

39:27

i i don't i don't have

39:29

any fears of alman ras you

39:31

know finding his way to some coverage that's

39:33

going to stop him next year i don't

39:35

think there's any fear at all so you

39:37

you've got to just be any kisvin johnson

39:40

yeah kisvin johnson and i

39:43

really love the splits you know like where jared

39:46

goth is a pretty

39:50

streaky hot cold quarterback depending on if he's on

39:52

the road or if he's at home but

39:55

alman ras against top 16 defenses

39:57

that was nine games 16.6 74

40:01

points 18 point one against bad

40:03

teams so you know hardly any difference

40:05

and then on the home or on the road

40:07

or at home It's

40:09

less than a point difference between those two things so

40:11

that those it's great to see

40:13

where I mean both Our

40:15

CD in Tyreek we've already sung their praises, but

40:18

they definitely beat the crap out of bad

40:20

teams where I'm in raw is just Daddy

40:23

just steady and and not not

40:25

the study that we had two

40:27

years ago where it was It's

40:29

good. It was steady great. Let

40:32

me ask you this though because he finished at three.

40:34

He's increased every year. He's 24 years old He's

40:38

about to get paid to get paid He's on

40:40

a consistent offense that you understand right, but I

40:42

don't feel like if I asked I mean you

40:44

didn't bring his name up when I brought up

40:46

the top four wide receivers off the board and

40:49

To me what sticks out with alman. Ra is like okay.

40:51

This is a tin touchdown year Mm-hmm. He

40:54

had six the year before he had five

40:56

the year before that on similar reception totals

40:58

Yeah Are

41:00

you waiting for that shoe to drop next year?

41:02

Yeah, this is this is around his peak I

41:04

mean not that he can't do ten again They

41:06

probably will before the end of his career, but

41:09

if you're like who can go out there

41:11

and get you 15 Touchdowns

41:13

that's that's got to be someone with

41:16

a different archetype that's a

41:18

Jefferson that's a CD

41:20

could do it face. Yeah, exactly I don't know

41:22

the play style and the you know the the

41:24

slot machine stuffs like Keenan Allen you don't expect

41:26

Keenan Allen to go out there and get 15

41:29

touchdowns in a season and You

41:33

know, I'm gonna probably pencil him in we're gonna be

41:35

starting guys for the you for

41:38

the UDK We're

41:40

gonna be And

41:44

I'm guessing I'll have almond raw right around

41:46

like seven and a half eight touchdowns That's

41:48

my expectation going into it. So a first-round

41:51

wide receiver. Yeah, for sure

41:54

Yeah, I would imagine so Pukanakua comes

41:56

in at four Yes,

41:58

Pukanakua comes in at four four. Now

42:03

he played the whole season and he started

42:06

real hot real fast so

42:09

his fantasy stats end up at

42:11

four but his consistency was nine.

42:14

First half 11,

42:17

second half 13.

42:19

He's a rookie. He

42:21

did literally more than

42:24

anybody could expect of a rookie

42:26

wide receiver ever. 105 receptions, 1486

42:28

yards, six touchdowns, right? Finishes

42:32

at four with six

42:34

touchdowns. 24% great, 53% good, 24% bust. So 24% bust is

42:40

four bust games on the season and it's

42:42

worth noting that two of

42:44

those bust games were the

42:47

Matthew Stafford list games. The game that he got

42:49

hurt in the next week when he didn't play.

42:51

So he was, he would

42:54

have been the consistency score of fifth without those

42:56

games. Obviously you still had to make your decision

42:58

to play so we have him in here. That's

43:00

why he's consistency ranked nine. I

43:03

don't think I'm gonna be the person this

43:05

offseason and you know it's January so we'll

43:07

see but I don't think I'm gonna be the

43:09

person just saying like I think

43:11

I'm gonna be the puka person. Oh good. I don't

43:14

think I'm gonna be the cup person. I

43:16

don't think there's gonna be a lot of cup people. I think

43:19

there will. Really? I mean Cooper

43:21

cop had a 2021 season that left you know there's

43:26

tattoos out there. Forever ago. I don't

43:30

know I mean I just see the narratives will

43:32

get spun up if there's enough of an ADP

43:34

gap to say you should just be taking this

43:36

all pro that's being drafted two rounds

43:38

behind puka but I I am a

43:41

believer that the puka takeover will

43:43

be solidified next year.

43:46

I'm right there with you and I don't think

43:48

there's been a bigger Cooper cup person than you

43:50

like this last season. You know I'll take the

43:52

L on it but I was I was

43:55

taking Cooper cup like crazy anytime he was anywhere

43:57

he would slip in in the first

44:00

round down to the fourth, the fifth, the sixth, I'd

44:02

be taking them sometimes at the two. I

44:05

believed in Matthew Stafford

44:08

supporting an amazing fantasy

44:10

wide receiver and unfortunately

44:13

the injuries came for Cooper Cup, but

44:15

then also unfortunately for Cup, Puca took

44:18

over and as a true Cooper Cup

44:20

believer, this is Puca's team

44:22

going forward. I mean, I

44:24

don't have any doubt about that. That is how

44:27

I feel and maybe Cooper Cup puts

44:30

up a feelin' esque touchdown

44:32

total. When Jefferson was

44:34

starting to take over, I just think

44:36

Puca was so impressed. Most receptions by a rookie

44:38

ever, most receiving yards, most first downs. That's

44:41

a great comp, Andy. The feelin'

44:43

situation. Jefferson, feelin'. That's

44:45

exactly what this is. The Cup will be

44:47

productive. Yeah, yeah, I agree. But

44:50

I just think it's time. You know, 22 years

44:52

old, the maturity showed as a

44:54

rookie, solidified offense.

44:57

Yards per route run, which is a

45:01

pretty strong statistic in terms of

45:05

success and future success. Rookie

45:07

wide receivers who have surpassed the two and

45:09

a half yards per route run since 2014,

45:14

Odo Beckham, A.J. Brown,

45:16

Justin Jefferson, Puca Nakua and

45:18

Jamar Chase. I mean, that is... And

45:22

then seeing the draft capital for each player is

45:25

extremely funny because it's like A.J. Brown

45:27

is the one who got disrespected until Puca fell

45:29

into the fifth round. Yeah,

45:31

it's crazy. I mean,

45:33

but what tier does he belong in? Are

45:35

you looking at Puca in the future?

45:37

Are you looking at A.J. Brown with a new offensive

45:39

coordinator? And how do you make a

45:42

decision between those guys? Like Dynasty? Or

45:44

just... Even though he's just redraft. Redraft. I

45:46

mean... Right now, if you had to...

45:50

Not knowing anything that we don't know from now. Amun

45:52

Ra, Puca and A.J. Brown. Put

45:55

them in the order that you will draft them. Oh

45:58

my goodness. Um, like,

46:01

do you feel more calm? I mean, it's

46:03

probably still Pooka at the

46:05

back of the list of those

46:07

three for me. The

46:10

thing about Pooka is you get

46:12

more explosive plays from Pooka. Yeah.

46:16

Deep. Yeah. I know what,

46:18

AJ Brown. Oh, I meant, I

46:20

meant relative to Amun Ross. Oh yeah. Sure. Sure. But

46:24

that, that's going to be a, um, a very

46:27

interesting, I mean, you're from nowhere, undrafted.

46:30

Yeah. So, um,

46:33

wild. And how much Pooka talk will there be

46:35

in relation to

46:37

this large group of wide receivers coming out in

46:39

the rookie class and

46:41

expectations for, Oh, Oh, you

46:43

can get, you can get this.

46:48

You can't stop, but can, but

46:50

you can. No, there will be the,

46:52

uh, yeah, the articles, the next Pooka. We'll

46:55

probably have one. I mean, you, you, we had

46:57

the, there will be. Cause

47:01

we got to find him. Yeah. Why the next Pooka?

47:03

I mean, that is a, that's wild. All right. Quick

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help.com/footballers. Well

49:40

from the youngest to the oldest in

49:42

this list Mike Evans. Mike

49:45

Evans at five. The

49:47

wide receiver 30 off the board

49:49

for fantasy players. Consistency

49:51

rank of seven. First half

49:54

13, second half eight. He

49:56

went ho-hum 79 for 1255. and

50:00

thirteen he was awesome uh...

50:03

it was andy's my guide this year and where

50:06

you drafted him in the seventh round

50:08

of the wide receiver thirty you

50:11

made the playoffs at all you

50:14

know and and you got your championship game with

50:16

with mike evans he was fantastic

50:18

and this was the you know we

50:20

had talked about it early in the

50:22

off season or late

50:25

in the off season last year and now

50:27

early in this off season about how the

50:30

kind of similar to the sea hawks who

50:32

had dk mac half was just great but

50:34

the everyone's worried about the white the quarterback

50:36

situation and then he was awesome first

50:38

year with gino that's

50:40

what happened with mike evans now we don't

50:42

know going forward where he's gonna play and

50:45

who is quarterback is going to be because right now

50:47

both uh... mike evans and

50:50

baker mayfield are not under contract twenty nine

50:52

percent great fifty nine percent good twenty four

50:54

percent bus simple question for you my

50:57

cabins get drafted inside the

50:59

top fifteen receivers next year because

51:02

i don't think you were i would say no you

51:06

know he went at wide receiver thirty obviously

51:08

he proved all of the haters

51:10

wrong but with the age

51:14

mixed with not knowing this contract situation

51:18

maybe i mean if if it's a reroll if it's a reroll

51:20

maybe get me to talk to yeah

51:23

he's the fifth thirty year old ride receiver thirty

51:26

plus at the finish in the top

51:28

five since two thousand eight and i'm

51:30

gonna tell you the other four are for

51:32

the fun of it but about the atoms in

51:34

twenty twenty two and tony brown in twenty

51:37

eighteen jordan elson in twenty sixteen and brennan

51:39

marshall very good

51:41

players uh... it was

51:43

just that the really special year for baker

51:45

and evans in that combo man

51:50

alright you're gonna be surprised at this

51:52

one because he's finished between wide receiver

51:54

eighteen and twenty two four

51:56

straight years and

51:59

he had a year that finished at wide receiver

52:01

six somehow the hope of Terry

52:03

McClellan managers everywhere DJ

52:08

Moore DJ Moore did it

52:10

number six yeah week five helped

52:13

honestly week five was two games

52:16

DJ Moore's fantasy finish only will

52:18

serve to confuse people more next

52:20

year because he was 13th in

52:23

consistency but 19th in each half

52:26

puns uh you know 24% bus games 41% good games 24% great like

52:28

you said that it

52:33

was a week five when he we know

52:35

week five so just to illustrate this our

52:38

metric for whether a wide receiver had a

52:40

great game you know you're

52:43

wondering like what's what's a good game a good

52:45

game is over 20 points and he

52:47

had he had two

52:49

of those in week five right so

52:51

yeah I mean that's that that's conflating

52:54

this that's why the first half wide

52:57

receiver 19 the second half wide receiver 19

52:59

when it comes to the consistency metric and

53:02

the the true score it was better

53:05

with Justin Fields though I will say

53:07

that he had some of his down games

53:09

without him DJ Moore will be you'll

53:12

be tough to talk me into next year because I think

53:14

the likelihood I mean I don't know if you guys are

53:17

agreeing with me but I think I think it's gonna be

53:19

Caleb Williams okay and I

53:21

think they'll add another wide receiver for

53:23

sure and I don't know if it'll be what

53:26

is it pick eight or nine that they have and they

53:28

got a row you know they roam roam adunze

53:33

if you add a stud wide receiver and

53:35

a new quarterback we

53:38

might just want to remember this season for DJ

53:40

Moore and maybe not well

53:42

this is lean on him it's it's

53:45

inconsistent but this is it we'll

53:48

see where he gets drafted but a wide receiver taken

53:50

in the fifth who gave you those

53:52

types of spike weeks throughout the season

53:55

I mean this is this

53:57

is why you assemble a whole team everything's not on

53:59

DJ Moore DJ Moore will go higher than Mike

54:01

Evans. Yes, that's

54:03

probably accurate. But yes, it'll be

54:05

interesting to see. I think he's

54:08

still a solid piece of the puzzle of

54:11

crafting an entire fantasy football roster,

54:14

but with Caleb Willy, if that's what

54:16

happens, then that'll

54:19

be really, really difficult. I will downgrade. You can't

54:22

nod. I

54:24

know that Justin Fields has not been a prolific, great,

54:27

world-class passer. His value comes from

54:30

his legs. But I will still

54:32

downgrade DJ Moore should they draft

54:34

Caleb Williams or any quarterback in

54:37

replacement of Fields. Because you just

54:39

don't believe in rookie quarterbacks like CJ Stroud. CJ

54:43

Stroud is the outlier. He's

54:45

the inlier. There's two of

54:47

them. There's two quarterbacks, Herbert.

54:50

Are you going to bring up Herbert? Herbert, yeah, of course. How did

54:52

you know the name? How did you know

54:54

who I'm going to talk about? With all the hundreds

54:56

of rookie quarterbacks I could have gone with. I will

54:58

say this. You're right. He's

55:00

still an outlier, technically. But

55:03

that's... I like tight windows

55:05

here when we analyze the quarterback position.

55:08

The NFL has changed tremendously, you know, the

55:11

way that rookie quarterbacks are being trusted

55:14

to become prolific passers, to

55:16

be allowed to do that stuff, that

55:18

was just not a permissible opportunity for

55:20

them other than the

55:23

last five, six years. Did someone tell Carolina they were

55:25

allowed to do it? Look,

55:27

they might not be good. I'm not saying they're all

55:29

good. That's Jason's point. Yeah, but if

55:31

you... You got it. You're my point. You

55:34

have to be scared. If you believe in a rookie passer,

55:36

I don't know if you believe in Caleb Williams. We'll talk

55:38

about that a lot over the next six months. If

55:41

you believe in a rookie passer, it is possible

55:43

for them to come out and dominate. Possible. Impossible.

55:47

Now, for Chicago, impossible. Because they never had anybody

55:49

throw over over like 4,000 yards

55:51

ever, right? I think they

55:53

have no 4,000 yard passers, ever. In

55:56

fact, I'm almost positive. even

56:00

just looking at the last five years and only

56:02

first-round draft picks you know kylar

56:05

didn't do anything for wide receivers his rookie

56:07

year daniel jones uh to

56:09

uh herbert did joe burrow no

56:12

remember joe burrow it wasn't season not

56:14

i mean he wasn't great trevor lorne

56:16

zach wilson treyland like even

56:20

just in the short window it's

56:22

it's a bad hit rate to bet on a rookie

56:24

yeah but what about the the good ones though right

56:27

the good quarterbacks did

56:29

produce well i mean there just weren't that many

56:31

good ones just is caleb williams good that

56:34

is what i'm asking that's my point i need you

56:36

to tell me is trevor lorance good no but

56:39

my point is like kylar trevor lorance baker

56:41

what are you telling burrow they didn't do

56:43

anything as a rookie as

56:46

far as supporting a wide receiver that's

56:48

the context is not what i have hopkins as

56:50

a rookie no i'll look at i

56:52

don't think his first season did

56:55

we if he did then he has supported him i

56:57

don't think so okay uh yeah

56:59

you know we'll just have to stack up the

57:01

strouts and the herberts until we can get you

57:03

on board okay

57:05

uh number seven aj brown and we're gonna we're

57:07

gonna talk about him and devontae smith together kylar

57:12

did not have hopkins as a rookie

57:14

that was his sophomore year yes so

57:16

who do you even have i'm on

57:18

it larry he probably had larry

57:21

yeah larry would have been there all

57:23

right um seven and

57:25

20 aj brown devontae smith very

57:27

simple question here are

57:31

they both were they both disappointing

57:34

aj brown was the wide receiver five off the

57:36

board finished at seven devontae smith

57:39

was the wide receiver 14 off the board finished at 20

57:41

they both finished well below

57:43

their finish in consistency so smith was 12

57:45

i'm sorry so he was

57:47

uh he actually finished above his fantasy finish

57:50

12th in consistency for devontae smith finished at

57:52

20 aj brown was

57:54

10th in consistency i would

57:56

say like i think

57:59

smith was more disappointing

58:02

of the two of them when everything is factored

58:04

in. AJ Brown is

58:06

truly mysterious of finishing

58:09

the year with the numbers he had 106 almost

58:12

1500 yards in seven touchdowns

58:15

but over the first half of

58:17

the season in our metric he

58:19

was consistency ranked number four and

58:22

that plummeted to 40 so Jay you're telling

58:24

me Staphon Diggs fell more than that. Just

58:27

you wait brother. That's a

58:29

good tease because that's exciting because that's

58:31

a gap but that's the what what

58:36

happened like that's the what that UK

58:39

it's already even formulated of what happened

58:41

to the Philadelphia Eagles like

58:44

was Jalen Hurts that hurt

58:46

did defenses

58:48

figure something out against

58:50

AJ Brown was AJ Brown banged up was

58:52

he football happened to the Eagles this year

58:54

that's exactly what happened to them yeah but

58:57

you don't you everybody always thinks the same thing will

58:59

always happen forever and it did for the first thing

59:01

game but that's what I mean I mean I'll be

59:03

told by me up until the ball happened AJ Brown

59:06

was well he said was

59:08

an incredible pick didn't he set the

59:10

record for a consecutive 130 yard games

59:12

or something yeah yeah 120 must have

59:14

125 yards he

59:17

did it in six

59:19

games in a row he was a monster

59:21

his pace before the bye week his pace

59:23

before the bye week was 1900 yards and

59:27

11 touchdowns his pace yeah he was after

59:29

the bye week was 958 yards

59:32

a thousand fewer yards on a season

59:34

they were both exactly 50 percent good

59:36

games they were both exactly 19

59:39

percent great games and then

59:41

the bust was the difference you know AJ Brown 19

59:43

percent Devonte Smith 31 percent

59:45

so I wouldn't really go as far

59:47

as to say disappointment

59:51

for AJ Brown but when you're the

59:53

consistency level of 40 in the second half

59:56

you didn't win the championship with AJ Brown

59:59

AJ Brown is disappointing on the

1:00:01

level of you go into week 10,

1:00:03

they're bi-week, and

1:00:05

you feel locked

1:00:08

in with what you have with AJ Brown

1:00:10

because he did it for essentially nine straight

1:00:13

weeks and you're not making appropriate

1:00:15

moves for your fantasy football team because

1:00:18

for him to disappear. At what point

1:00:20

in this run are you like

1:00:23

oh well maybe something's wrong here with

1:00:25

AJ Brown week? Never. No,

1:00:27

because by the time you start thinking that he

1:00:30

finishes 14th against San Francisco

1:00:32

and 22nd against Dallas and you're like we're

1:00:34

back and then he just just crashes and

1:00:36

burns. So that is as

1:00:38

great as it was that's a devastating finish.

1:00:41

I do have a really interesting stat for

1:00:43

you guys. Over

1:00:45

the last two years when Brown and

1:00:47

Smith played together, 24% of the

1:00:49

time both of them

1:00:53

hit 13 plus fantasy points. 45% of

1:00:55

the time both hit 10 plus. 48% of the time

1:01:00

one scored less than seven. So

1:01:04

you have like 50% chance that they

1:01:06

both end up pretty good like fine

1:01:08

10 plus or 50% chance that

1:01:10

one of them ends up below seven fantasy points. But also so it

1:01:12

was a 24% you said? 24% of the time they're both good. One

1:01:17

and four you'll get both of them to hit? Yeah. I

1:01:20

don't like those odds. But we do have a new

1:01:22

offensive coordinator coming in next year. You've

1:01:25

been vigorously jotting numbers down. Was this

1:01:28

quarterback related? You circling

1:01:30

back? Yeah just looking at AJ Brown specifically and

1:01:32

how those splits between the first half and the

1:01:35

second half the thing that really stood out to

1:01:37

me is on the first half of the year

1:01:40

he caught 73% of his passes. That is a really

1:01:44

good number. The second half of the year

1:01:47

he caught 59% of his passes.

1:01:50

Now sadly 59% is closer to kind

1:01:52

of his career average. He's been

1:01:55

a downfield guy. I think his first

1:01:57

year with Philly was 60%. So I

1:02:00

don't know if that means that maybe the

1:02:02

first half of the year was... If

1:02:06

both halves were a little bit outlier, because I think that

1:02:08

that's the truth. I don't

1:02:10

think that he's ever gonna... A little too much, a little too

1:02:12

little. He's not gonna ever be that first half where he has

1:02:14

2,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. He's

1:02:16

not gonna be the second half where he can't crack 1,000 yards. So

1:02:19

it's gonna be in between, but if I

1:02:21

had to lean which one was the larger

1:02:23

outlier, it seems like the first half where

1:02:26

you're connecting on 73% of your of

1:02:29

your passes is the outlier for the type of

1:02:31

passes AJ Brown usually receives. And for what it's

1:02:33

worth in that span, Jalen Hertz was a 69%

1:02:36

completion percentage passer, and he dropped

1:02:38

to a 61% in the

1:02:40

second half of the year. Yeah. Like he struggled not

1:02:42

just to AJ Brown, but all the way across the

1:02:44

board in the collapse. So at

1:02:47

8 is Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen was...

1:02:50

He's 31.8 years old. He's

1:02:54

a fourth round draft pick with a

1:02:56

consistency rank of five. First

1:02:58

half was eight, second half was five. He missed the

1:03:00

end of the year, which was

1:03:03

unfortunate because you relied on him. And let's

1:03:05

be honest, if I had him, Mike obviously

1:03:07

wouldn't be champion. It's

1:03:09

very possible, but I didn't have

1:03:11

him. Zero bust games for Keenan

1:03:13

Allen, 31% great, which

1:03:15

is a crazy good number for a guy his age

1:03:18

with the archetype that he is. And

1:03:20

then 46% good. Yeah.

1:03:23

Three times as the overall number one

1:03:25

wide receiver on the week. That just

1:03:27

seems impossible for a 31 year

1:03:30

old, almost 32 year old slot receiver to

1:03:36

have that kind of week winning performance. See,

1:03:38

that's called peaking, Al. You

1:03:40

can peek like Keenan Allen peeks. We

1:03:43

still think you're going to get better. We

1:03:45

really do. We believe that you could take

1:03:47

the Keenan Allen career arc. But

1:03:51

right now, it's going to be a while. You're not there. Yeah,

1:03:53

no, you're not. You've been a

1:03:55

huge help, but you're not quite Keenan Allen.

1:04:00

girl you're a real quinton that

1:04:03

is that is insulting

1:04:05

even for this show yeah to call someone on

1:04:08

our step but that's the worst thing we've ever

1:04:10

said and I it might be I think so

1:04:12

and we and we named Brooks Paul Giamatti but

1:04:15

calling him Quentin huge potential huge

1:04:17

potential Quentin

1:04:19

while your head oh okay

1:04:23

you know he's great Keenan Allen and he was

1:04:25

he was great last year is he gonna be

1:04:28

great you know it wore down I mean you

1:04:30

didn't have Keenan Allen help you past week 12

1:04:32

so final six weeks of the year either injured

1:04:34

or underperforming compared to what you were expecting lost

1:04:37

his quarterback lost Mike

1:04:39

Williams lost Josh Palmer huge

1:04:42

didn't do much is he

1:04:46

a go-to receiver next year yeah

1:04:49

Keenan Allen should be a go-to receiver next

1:04:51

year right now is Quentin Johnson still in

1:04:53

that team when Johnson will be on the

1:04:55

team yes and I personally I expect I

1:04:57

think they've got the number seven pick overall

1:05:00

given the age of Keenan Allen the

1:05:02

situation with huge and Mike Williams I

1:05:05

would I think I would

1:05:07

be surprised at this point if they don't take

1:05:09

one of the great rookie wide receivers even though

1:05:11

they just did even though they've been a first-rounder

1:05:13

I think I don't know I think they're gonna

1:05:16

go back to back I don't know if they

1:05:18

can't I mean you

1:05:21

know TBD we don't know who they're gonna draft

1:05:23

but my point is if

1:05:25

they bring in a really

1:05:28

top-end top 10 NFL rookie

1:05:30

wide receiver I still believe as a rookie

1:05:32

you're gonna have well now and as the

1:05:35

primary first free let me give you

1:05:37

a different name instead because I think I

1:05:39

think I think Brock Bowers is the

1:05:41

name a lot of people are associating

1:05:43

with the Chargers so you bring in

1:05:45

a pass catching tight end wait where

1:05:47

are they drafting I was five seven

1:05:49

five so

1:05:51

they could give I've seen I've seen Bowers mock to

1:05:53

them plenty of times yeah they

1:05:55

don't really have a tight end Gerald

1:05:57

Everett is not under contract so So

1:06:00

he's gonna age that yeah, I mean and

1:06:02

that'd be you know possession type of situation there, but

1:06:04

um You know the shoes gonna drop

1:06:06

on Keenan at some point But

1:06:09

if either of you don't believe it is I would like

1:06:11

you to please trade for him because I have him in

1:06:13

dynasty And I am willing to give him up for me

1:06:16

Jason Jalen waddle. I know you want to get rid of

1:06:18

him. Yeah No, no, thank you. I I

1:06:20

think we got One

1:06:22

more year more you want to push it Would

1:06:25

you be happier with Keenan Allen or Mike Evans

1:06:27

on your roster next year like

1:06:30

Evans had the higher fantasy finish Keenan

1:06:32

Allen was more consistent. I

1:06:35

would rather have Keenan Allen Keenan. Mike Evans had

1:06:37

13 touchdowns Oh, that's that's like a low

1:06:39

for him this year. No, I mean He

1:06:42

is several times had double

1:06:44

digit touchdowns, but so you'd go

1:06:46

Keenan Yeah, if I have

1:06:48

to bet whether Baker is back or Baker

1:06:50

is pumpkin. I would put my dollar bill

1:06:52

towards pumpkin now He is uh Keenan's about

1:06:55

a year and a quarter older than Evans

1:06:58

So it's a fun discussion to figure out. I mean, I

1:07:00

think it's what do you need on your roster when you're drafting

1:07:02

those guys, too Because Keenan is

1:07:04

probably gonna catch a lot more passes Yeah,

1:07:07

and usually where those guys are gonna go in

1:07:09

ADP. They're not gonna be your wide receiver one

1:07:12

So I want the volume Yeah,

1:07:15

I guess vulnerability of drafting and

1:07:17

a powerful pass catching option Keenan

1:07:21

is probably more vulnerable to A

1:07:24

change in his his total volume. Yeah, we'll

1:07:26

see if the Harbaugh Pass

1:07:29

attempts of the past are the ones that

1:07:31

we end up with really low volume Well,

1:07:33

Nico Collins came in at nine just 24

1:07:35

years old consistency rank of 16 dead Did

1:07:39

he really finish as the wide receiver

1:07:41

nine on the season you betcha and

1:07:43

that is with what one two missed

1:07:45

games Two missed games and he

1:07:47

finished as the white that I

1:07:50

was unaware of this. I've looked at all the The

1:07:53

the consistent and really metrics, but I didn't look

1:07:55

at like that. Just the total fantasy finishes really

1:07:58

three because he week

1:08:00

14 against the Jets. Yeah he barely played. Played

1:08:02

five percent of the snaps. 40%

1:08:05

good, 27% great, 27% bust.

1:08:08

Amazing at home, like double the production at home.

1:08:11

Amazing against bad defenses. More than double the

1:08:13

production against bottom 16 past

1:08:16

defenses. In fact

1:08:18

the biggest discrepancy in the true series

1:08:20

history at wide receiver, Nico

1:08:22

Collins got shut down by top 16 defenses

1:08:24

and dominated bad ones. But

1:08:27

I think that that's probably very indicative of where

1:08:29

CJ Stroud was. Sure. And what that strategy was

1:08:31

going to be. But he was a monster.

1:08:34

Top 10 all-time yards per route run number

1:08:38

with a rookie quarterback. So

1:08:40

the sky feels like the limit for a 24

1:08:42

year old Nico Collins moving forward. We've

1:08:44

had the Nico versus Tankdale discussion and

1:08:47

I think Mike you said you kind

1:08:49

of leaned the Nico way. A little bit. It's hard

1:08:51

not to. Ending

1:08:53

the year the way that we did. Him

1:08:56

and Tank will probably be in like the exact same

1:08:58

round. Would not be surprised. That

1:09:00

sounds exactly right. Which round will that be?

1:09:05

Three, four? Oh they

1:09:07

won't get to the fourth. So three, third?

1:09:09

Both of them? Both of them gone by

1:09:12

then? I think there's gonna be a lot

1:09:14

of debate about Nico versus Tank and I'm

1:09:16

not even sure which side I'm on. There's

1:09:19

time for that. Yeah there's time for that. I mean I

1:09:21

find myself leaning Nico's solely because

1:09:23

of size, just weight

1:09:25

and hopeful durability. But it's not like he

1:09:28

didn't miss games. No

1:09:30

he did and Tank is great.

1:09:35

84, 12, 97 and 8. That was the numbers for Nico. So

1:09:38

you know Mike Evans asks in

1:09:40

terms of the you know 80-80 receptions.

1:09:43

That's about where Mike settles in and

1:09:47

we didn't get to see Tankdale for five weeks.

1:09:49

But Nico stepped right back in. Number

1:09:51

one overall wide receiver in week 18 which

1:09:53

didn't help your fantasy team but it did

1:09:55

help his fantasy finish. That's six top 12

1:09:57

finishes with zero finishes

1:09:59

between between wide receiver 13 and 25. All

1:10:03

or nothing, baby. You are not allowed to scroll down

1:10:05

in the dock, Mike, because I'm going to tell you

1:10:07

the 10th receiver. His name is Stefan

1:10:09

Dix. OK, I haven't seen it.

1:10:11

But I'm going to give you the numbers, because

1:10:13

they're just spectacular. Now, what was the one you

1:10:15

were surprised at? AJ Brown's crazy bad flip. AJ

1:10:17

Brown was 4 to 40. 4 to 40. OK.

1:10:21

What's his good? I'm going to paint the picture. OK, can I

1:10:23

get Stefan Dix over the

1:10:25

first half, consistency rank? Go

1:10:28

for it. OK. Second

1:10:31

best. Second best. Unbelievably good. Yeah,

1:10:33

the wide receiver 4 off of the board, so you dropped

1:10:35

him in the first half. And you

1:10:38

got what you drafted, is Stefan Dix over the

1:10:40

first half. I dare you to get close on

1:10:42

the second. Well,

1:10:45

now, I don't want to over-guess and ruin it.

1:10:48

But would your guess

1:10:50

be somewhere around 76? No,

1:10:52

I would have gone to the 60s. 76

1:10:55

second best to 76th best. That

1:11:01

is, he had

1:11:04

zero bust games during the first half.

1:11:07

And he had, oh,

1:11:09

he had two for him. That

1:11:12

sounds real bad. That's what he deserved.

1:11:16

It was like, I just want you

1:11:18

to pretend that

1:11:20

you had a fantasy team that was doing well. And

1:11:23

then you had this cool opportunity to swap

1:11:25

a wide receiver spot out for

1:11:29

an IR spot. Because it was like

1:11:31

you just deleted. You

1:11:34

just deleted a position, basically. You did worse

1:11:36

than that. I mean, you were putting in

1:11:38

a player. Like, if you were to play

1:11:41

straight up off the waiver wire every single week last

1:11:43

year for week 10 on, you said,

1:11:45

I have to play someone off the wire. I'm going to

1:11:47

find what I think is the best option. More

1:11:50

often than not, you would have outscored Stefan Diggs. When

1:11:52

you look at that stretch from 10 to 18, yeah,

1:11:54

in week 12, he

1:11:57

had 16 fantasy points. And. And

1:12:00

we're gonna we're gonna include week 18, which

1:12:02

you didn't need and wasn't that great with 12 aside

1:12:06

from those two games 4.9

1:12:09

4.7 4.4

1:12:12

6.8 5.4 5.1

1:12:14

fantasy points Wrecked

1:12:18

your team and he was so

1:12:20

good the first half and

1:12:23

he's been so good for so many years It

1:12:25

didn't matter how many weeks you did in a row. So what do

1:12:27

you just kept you had to put him in your life What do

1:12:30

you do with the fact that look we are

1:12:32

fantasy players. We are stat analyzers We

1:12:34

love stuff like targets per outrun

1:12:37

and target share Stavon Diggs had

1:12:39

a 27% target share 28% target

1:12:41

per outrun in that span. Yeah

1:12:43

with Joe Brady So

1:12:46

he was still a focal point the focal

1:12:48

point of the offense. It

1:12:50

just didn't work. I Am

1:12:55

out I'm

1:12:57

out. I whatever his ADP is You don't

1:12:59

want to see that sweet Staphon Diggs name

1:13:02

on your roster with the upside because I

1:13:04

think he's gonna be Tantalizing

1:13:06

people it will be tantalizing and he

1:13:09

is the one of the quintessential

1:13:11

players where you just have to be okay being wrong

1:13:13

And you wait, let me hold on. Let me just

1:13:15

reset you real quick. Okay What if

1:13:17

I told you had a 27% target share and 28%

1:13:19

target per outrun you want him now? That

1:13:25

that almost makes me more upset

1:13:27

because it feels like it's broken Well,

1:13:30

and they were winning games and and they

1:13:33

and they just you know They

1:13:35

took that OC and they said hey, you're

1:13:37

full-time now. You're not interim. So they

1:13:40

got far with that And I mean

1:13:43

maybe the season starts. Okay

1:13:45

for digs. I'm sure he'll have his

1:13:47

games assuming he's still a bill

1:13:49

but Yeah,

1:13:51

I'm not gonna he didn't hit

1:13:53

the ball. He won't fall to like the

1:13:55

fifth six round Oh, he won't he's still

1:13:57

gonna be a player that is probably drafted

1:14:00

Kyle says right now for the

1:14:02

shout out to all the D. Gen's on

1:14:04

underdog already doing best ball drafts wide

1:14:06

receiver 15 Oh, yeah, I'm out What

1:14:10

if I told you the passer rating for Josh Allen

1:14:12

on deep targets to find eggs this year was 34

1:14:14

I Would

1:14:17

ask what's the what's the top end

1:14:19

of the passer rating again? Not that

1:14:23

And and it's hard not to look at

1:14:25

players I mean there were players like Julio

1:14:27

Jones and AJ Green and DeAndre Hopkins and

1:14:29

Devonte Adams that they

1:14:31

hit a cliff and Then

1:14:33

you go eyes Julio. Ah,

1:14:36

it's AJ Green How

1:14:38

it's Hopkins well guess what you

1:14:41

know the truth is It's

1:14:43

over That's the tabbing the truth

1:14:45

is is that DeAndre Hopkins can be as mad as he want that

1:14:47

no one wanted him but

1:14:51

You weren't that good. You certainly weren't when

1:14:53

I say that good. I I mean compared

1:14:55

to what you were right? Yeah,

1:14:58

how big shall be fine? Yes

1:15:00

for the bills But

1:15:03

not digs he won't be did

1:15:05

you will never be? Stefon did I don't

1:15:07

think top ten Very

1:15:09

confident. No, I'm very confident. He will never be

1:15:12

a top ten fantasy wide receiver He's so loud

1:15:14

that the target share is always gonna be there

1:15:17

but it was It was right.

1:15:19

I know that's what I'm saying. It's gonna be the

1:15:21

hardest player next year I mean they have they'll have

1:15:23

a whole offseason to iron out

1:15:26

the kinks of yeah Yeah, and

1:15:28

then 27% target

1:15:31

run. He's still guaranteed 40 million

1:15:33

dollars They

1:15:35

have to work him in well and

1:15:38

right now I mean they don't really have a lot of

1:15:40

other Not

1:15:42

under contract and Who

1:15:45

boy little Shakir, baby? Yeah,

1:15:48

don't all in King King. I mean

1:15:50

don't Kincaid will be the the biggest

1:15:52

jump up in targets next year So

1:15:55

I you're in yeah, I'm in I thought

1:15:57

more there you go I'll

1:16:00

be out on Brock Bowers 2 this year in

1:16:02

redraft, don't you worry. Especially

1:16:04

when he goes to the- Even when the

1:16:06

rookie Sam LaPorta is like the best tight

1:16:08

end in football. Sure, but in hindsight, no,

1:16:10

no, that wasn't who people were banging the

1:16:12

drum for, like, Oh, it's gotta be Sam

1:16:14

LaPorta. No, it was Aldon Cakade. Sam

1:16:17

LaPorta was barely drafted. Like

1:16:19

there was debate in the footies of whether

1:16:22

he should have been a waiver wire gym

1:16:24

or technically it was like his ADP was like round

1:16:26

15. If you could have

1:16:28

made Jason the maddest possible this offseason, you would

1:16:30

have taken LaPorta to start and then you would

1:16:32

have gone like the Nico Collins tanked

1:16:35

out wide receiver combo and just

1:16:37

depended on rookies. Didn't

1:16:40

you? You're such an old school guy, man. Well, I love

1:16:43

rookies. I don't love wide receivers with

1:16:45

rookie quarterbacks and I don't love rookie tight

1:16:47

ends. Okay. Okay. It

1:16:49

seems like you like some rookies. It doesn't seem

1:16:51

like- It doesn't seem like you got big love.

1:16:53

That's all I'm saying. Yeah, I have- That sounds

1:16:56

like little- I have hookah. It sounds like little

1:16:58

love. He's very focused. Mm-hmm. I pour my love

1:17:00

into great rookie wide receivers with good quarterback. All

1:17:03

right. We'll dig into the second

1:17:05

part of the true series on the wide receiver

1:17:08

position on Tuesday. Thank you for

1:17:10

joining us. You can check

1:17:12

out the community ballersdiscord.com. Go

1:17:14

chat it up over there. Goodbye.

1:17:16

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1:17:27

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1:17:31

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