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0:30

This is

0:33

GPS, the global public square. Welcome

0:35

to all of you in the United states and around

0:37

the world. I'm

0:38

Farid Zakaria coming to you from

0:40

New York. On

0:42

today's program, is Ukraine

0:45

winning the war? And

0:47

how do we handle Putin's nuclear threats?

0:50

I will ask that to the former NATO

0:52

supreme commander in Europe to General

0:54

Wesley Park. Also, forty

0:57

three years later, are we on the verge

0:59

of another revolution in Iran?

1:03

The images of mostly young people

1:05

rising up against the regime have captivated

1:08

all of us. I will talk to an Iranian

1:10

writer who explains what the

1:12

protesters want. And

1:15

at a time when economies are struggling

1:17

around the globe and Russia is already

1:19

getting a billion dollars every few

1:21

days in oil and gas revenues. Why

1:24

in the world did OPEC dressoil production?

1:27

Everything has a price. Energy security

1:29

has price as well. We will explain.

1:34

But

1:34

first, here's my take. One

1:37

of the few issues on which there's a consensus

1:39

in Washington these days is that American

1:41

policy toward China was built

1:44

on an intellectual error. liberals

1:47

and conservatives both believed that

1:49

Beijing's embrace of free markets and its

1:51

integration with the global economy would

1:53

fundamentally change China. but

1:56

they didn't. And so the consensus goes,

1:58

we should recognize that this

1:59

was a naïve belief in the

2:02

power of markets and trade.

2:04

In fact, viewing

2:06

China on the eve of the pivotal twentieth

2:08

party Congress, I'm struck by

2:10

how little that line of analysis captures

2:13

what has actually happened in China

2:15

over the last decades. China

2:17

has gone through profound economic

2:19

and social changes Its per capita

2:22

GDP has gone up almost thirty

2:24

fold since the start of economic

2:26

liberalization in nineteen seventy eight.

2:29

mass education and urbanization have

2:31

changed the face of the country. Hundreds

2:34

of millions of Chinese are now middle class.

2:37

use the most cutting edge tools of the Information

2:39

Revolution, and have considerable freedom

2:42

to own properties, start businesses, and

2:44

change residences all previously

2:47

forbidden.

2:48

It is precisely in response

2:50

to these massive changes that Xi

2:52

Jinping has launched his program of

2:55

repression and centralization. You

2:57

see when Xi came to power, he determined

2:59

that economic liberalization was

3:02

actually transforming China profoundly.

3:04

in a bad way. He believed that

3:06

the Communist Party was on the verge of becoming

3:09

irrelevant in a society dominated

3:11

by capitalism and consumerism.

3:13

So he cracked down in every sphere

3:15

imaginable, attacking the private sector,

3:18

humiliating billionaires, reviving

3:20

communist ideology, purging

3:22

the party of corrupt officials and

3:24

ramping up nationalism mostly

3:26

anti western in both word

3:28

and deed. In this regard,

3:31

she follows a familiar pattern. In

3:33

dictatorships where liberalization and

3:35

growth have produced a middle class,

3:38

the regime's first response is

3:40

to maintain its hold on power.

3:42

In the era when South Korea and Taiwan

3:45

was still autocracies, economic

3:47

liberalization there gradually led

3:49

to a growing middle class and cause

3:51

for greater political freedom prompting

3:54

the regimes to crack down, often

3:56

violently. Yet repression

3:58

did not work and eventually

3:59

gave way to democracy.

4:01

The real question to ask then

4:04

is why China's response to the changes

4:06

unleashed by its market opening has

4:08

been so successful? Why

4:11

has Xi Jinping's campaign of repression

4:13

worked where other e station

4:16

ones did not? The answer lies in

4:18

a brilliant twenty twenty one essay by China's

4:20

column Minxin Pei. Pei points out

4:22

that China is today almost unique

4:24

in the world. Almost every country with a

4:26

per capita income higher than China's

4:29

is either a democracy of some sort

4:32

or an oil and gas dictatorship. You

4:34

see, federal states enable country to

4:36

get rich without modernizing the

4:38

economy or society since all they have

4:40

to do is dig in the ground for natural wealth.

4:44

Why is China the great exception?

4:46

PAVE

4:47

revives an old distinction between

4:49

authoritarian and totalitarian regimes.

4:52

In the former, government is oppressive

4:55

but not all encompassing. In

4:57

the latter, like China and the Soviet Union,

4:59

the state dominates all spheres

5:01

of life. and does not allow an

5:03

independent civil society to develop.

5:07

The Chinese Communist Party dominates

5:09

everything in China. When a social

5:11

movement rises outside of the party

5:13

like the following Gong, the party views

5:15

it as a mortal threat and shuts it

5:17

down. At the heart

5:20

of Xi Jinping's worldview, it's

5:22

his horror regarding the demise of Soviet

5:24

communism. She has expressed

5:26

the view that this happened because the Communist

5:29

Party leaders their lost faith

5:31

in their ideology and their movement.

5:33

He sees Mikhail Gorbachev as a foolish

5:35

reformer who opened up the political

5:38

system only to see the whole country

5:40

collapse. the lesson, double

5:42

down on Lennonist party control.

5:46

In the conditions of a totalitarian state,

5:49

Bei points out, the changes produced

5:51

by economic growth lead to

5:53

the need for more and more repression, producing

5:56

in China, and I would add Russia, a

5:59

reversion to neo Stalinism. Putin

6:01

and She are similar in recognizing that

6:04

too much contact in commerce with the

6:06

west can undermine their rule.

6:09

inspiring them to search for ways to

6:11

make their countries less dependent on

6:13

the west and to consolidate their personalized

6:16

rule. The problem for Xi is that

6:18

he is steering China on a very dangerous

6:20

path. The state is now dominating

6:22

the economy again and growth has slowed

6:24

considerably. Enterprising Chinese

6:27

businessman are moving to Singapore and elsewhere.

6:29

Areas of Chinese society that were once

6:32

lively and innovative are closing down.

6:34

Meanwhile, international hostility to

6:37

Xi's expansionism is growing. Dave

6:40

points out that the neo Stalinist model

6:42

bottles up all the forces of change,

6:45

leaving only one door open,

6:47

revolution.

6:49

As bay notes by two thousand and thirty five,

6:52

China will have about three hundred

6:54

million college graduates. Will

6:57

they be content to live quietly

6:59

under Xi's reign of repression?

7:02

Go to cnn dot com slash free for

7:05

a link to my Washington Post column this week,

7:07

and let's get started.

7:18

Yesterday morning, the Koch

7:21

straight Bridge suffered great

7:23

damage after a massive explosion. That's

7:26

been the longest in Europe connects

7:28

Russia to Crimea, which Russia

7:30

and next from Ukraine in twenty fourteen.

7:33

Ukrainians expressed great excitement

7:35

about the disaster. The Ukrainian government's own

7:37

Twitter account summed up the sentiment in

7:40

two words, Sickburn. The

7:42

explosion was undoubtedly a setback for

7:44

Russia, part of a month long

7:46

string of them. Retired General

7:48

West Clark joins us now to help us understand

7:51

what's going on? He is a former supreme

7:54

allied commander of NATO, who is now

7:56

a CNN military analyst. West

7:59

the croissant the the Primian

8:01

Bridge, I've heard people say

8:03

things like this is people

8:06

in the body blow because The Russians

8:08

will not be able to resupply, but I've

8:10

also heard people say, well, they'll be able to repair

8:12

this easily. How significant is

8:14

this bridge explosion? I

8:17

think it's very significant psychologically

8:20

and politically. I think in terms

8:22

of the military impact of it,

8:24

it's too early to know It's at

8:26

least a marginal impact, but

8:28

certainly not a significant blow

8:31

to the what Russia is doing in Ukraine,

8:34

not yet. it will be the subject,

8:36

no doubt, of continuing efforts by

8:39

the Ukrainians. Howard Bauchner:

8:40

So if you look at the

8:42

Northeast you

8:45

know, the Russian position

8:48

seems to have collapsed. The Ukrainians are

8:50

just moving forward slowly but steadily.

8:53

the real fight is in and around

8:55

Kurdistan. What is

8:57

the Ukrainian objective there? And

8:59

why is it so important? Well,

9:02

Kerson, if you can take it,

9:04

it eliminates the Russian bridgehead on

9:06

the West Bank or the right Bank

9:08

of the Napa River. and that

9:10

stops the threat or at least reduces

9:13

the threat to Odisha. It gives more

9:15

access to the black sea to the Ukrainians and

9:17

it opens a way to regaining Crimea.

9:20

So it's very important. They're trying

9:22

to isolate the right bank

9:25

from the left bank cut

9:27

off all the justice, go after the command and

9:29

control, leave those Russian soldiers

9:31

on twenty five thousand of them that are isolated,

9:34

under attack, and let the

9:36

demoralization and fear factor

9:38

work in while they pick off their commanders

9:41

to control and work their way through in that.

9:43

It's a tough fight. but

9:45

they've got the momentum.

9:47

And you've often said and

9:49

and when you say this, you remind me of Omar

9:51

Bradley's great line. amateur

9:54

stock strategy, expert stock

9:56

logistics. You've often said your advice

9:58

to the Ukrainians is do

9:59

not outrun your lines. What

10:02

does that mean? I that's

10:04

exactly right. When you're in the offensive

10:06

like this, you've got to patient, you've

10:08

got to not outrun your lines of communication.

10:11

troops have to be rusted, ammunition has

10:13

to be resupplied, weapons have to be cleaned,

10:16

equipment has to be repaired, you have to rotate,

10:19

you don't wanna sort of push ahead, Palma,

10:21

run into an ambush, lose your force.

10:23

So we would call that a culminating

10:25

point. And so what we want the Ukrainians

10:28

to do, what we hope they're doing is measuring

10:30

their attack, working smoothly, make

10:32

it so at last in the Northeast

10:35

and against Pearson step by

10:37

step, use reconnaissance intelligence,

10:39

pick the targets, use precision fire

10:42

protect your force as you advance?

10:45

What what are you struck by when

10:47

you watch the Russian forces? and

10:50

and how they fight and how they

10:52

behave. You've you've spent a lot of time looking

10:54

at this kind of thing.

10:57

I went to I went to Russia several times.

10:59

I was named Oak commander. I actually looked at Russian

11:01

forces, talked to the generals, looked at their training

11:04

methods, They haven't really advanced

11:06

since the World War one. The

11:08

idea of why the Russian forces, okay,

11:10

we've got high technology, you educate the general

11:13

self. give the peasants a rifle

11:15

and tell them to attack and you need

11:17

really mean general who'll take harsh

11:20

discipline against them if they don't perform

11:22

But that's mostly about artillery.

11:25

It's about the weight of fire. And

11:27

the individual soldier, well, he's just out

11:29

there. And this is the exact

11:31

opposite for either the way we believe

11:34

wars are won. We say it's the

11:36

individual soldier, his character, his

11:38

commitment, his training, his

11:40

weapon, his ability to be protected

11:42

to deliver precision fire. General's

11:45

commanders, they can lose the battle,

11:47

they can set the conditions for success, but

11:50

they can't win it. It's one at

11:52

the soldier level. Ukrainians

11:54

get this. The Russians clearly don't.

11:57

Do

11:57

you think as as a consequence, will

11:59

the three hundred thousand mobilization work?

12:02

These are completely untrained, I assume

12:04

Russians? I think

12:06

some of them may have had some initial

12:08

training, and it doesn't take long to

12:10

teach a man to fire an AK forty

12:12

seven or AK seventy four or an RPG

12:15

fire. thing about it is that it's about

12:17

teamwork, it's about trust, it's about

12:19

building cohesive units, and

12:22

none of that's gonna happen with these Russian

12:24

new recruits. gonna be thrown into the line

12:27

as fillers for units that have been decimated

12:29

that have already lost confidence in their commanders.

12:32

So, you know, if they're attacked, they'll

12:34

probably shoot back initially to defend themselves,

12:37

but a cohesive force, uh-uh,

12:39

not gonna happen in the near term.

12:42

And, Wes, what should we make of Putin's

12:44

nuclear threats? They do

12:46

seem to be having some effect for example.

12:48

I mean, just one person Donald Trump is

12:50

now saying, if we don't have a negotiated

12:53

peace with the Ukraine between Ukraine

12:55

and Russia, we're gonna have world war three.

12:57

So that's the specter that Putin is

12:59

raising, right, by talking about nuclear weapons.

13:02

Yeah.

13:03

I think that's right. And you know, the Russians

13:05

have spent sixty years trying to

13:07

instill fear of nuclear power and

13:09

nuclear weapons. in the west. And

13:12

and and they've done this as recently as in August

13:14

when Putin said no one could win a nuclear

13:17

war. Okay? Then why is he threatening a

13:19

nuclear war? because you this is

13:21

basically a psychological effort against

13:23

the United States. And men like Donald

13:25

Trump are picking it up, and they want to under

13:28

cut the will and resolve

13:31

of the west to assist the Ukrainians in

13:33

this fight. Now the weapons were

13:35

used they can be used against

13:37

fixed targets. So you could target park

13:39

even do horrible damage to car keys.

13:42

But when you're trying to hit moving forces,

13:45

with

13:46

artillery delivered nuclear weapons.

13:49

We tried that for years in US military

13:52

exercises. in Germany, in United

13:55

States, everywhere, and we never

13:57

got very good results with it because there's too

13:59

many moving parts.

14:00

it's too difficult. So

14:02

you end up with some weapons fired. And

14:05

in the in the scenarios, lots of tree

14:07

blow down, holes in the

14:09

ground, and maybe troops get

14:12

sick three months later from radiation

14:14

poisoning. But in every case,

14:16

It was a disappointment tactically. It

14:19

did not yield strong immediate

14:21

tactical results. But if he

14:23

uses them, there will be strong psychological

14:26

impact. So we have to be very careful

14:29

on the one hand saying that,

14:31

okay, this would be a really

14:33

bad step if we use it. But on the other

14:35

hand, we don't wanna get ourselves so scared of

14:37

this that we don't support the Ukrainians

14:39

because the way out of this is to give

14:41

Ukraine the military existence it needs

14:43

as rapidly as possible and push

14:46

Putin out, leave him no

14:48

choice, make it so that the use of

14:50

nuclear weapons won't make a difference

14:52

tactically. He then has to find

14:55

his own history of strategy.

14:56

West Clark brilliant analysis

14:59

that really thank you. We will

15:01

be back on Iran.

15:06

What

15:07

if you could just pick the

15:09

world up, shake it like an etch a sketch,

15:11

and then just start over from scratch.

15:14

What would your new reality look like.

15:17

I'm Chris Salizza. Join me each week

15:19

on Downside Up, a new podcast from CNN

15:21

as we figure out what our world would look like

15:23

with just a few small changes.

15:26

Listen to the podcast downside up.

15:29

On Apple Podcasts, Spotify iHeartRadio,

15:32

or your favorite podcast app.

15:37

On

15:40

Thursday, secretary of stake, Lincoln

15:42

announced sanctions against Iran's minister

15:44

of the interior and communications and

15:47

five other officials of the Islamic Republic,

15:50

all for their roles in the crackdown against

15:52

protesters. The arrest was

15:54

sparked by the death of Masa Amini,

15:57

a twenty two year old woman. Masa had been

15:59

arrested by the morality police accused

16:01

of violating Iran's dress code.

16:04

And at the forefront of the protests against

16:06

her killing are women and young people.

16:08

I want to bring in Roya Hakakiyan to

16:11

help us understand the movement. Its

16:13

meaning and its power. She is an Iranian

16:15

american writer. Very

16:17

welcome. I wanted to

16:19

ask you first, what

16:22

was your what are your impressions

16:24

just watching these protests? What is

16:26

it that you are noticing?

16:30

I'm noticing something

16:32

I haven't seen since nineteen seventy

16:34

nine. Some of the images

16:36

that are coming out of Iran are very

16:39

much reminiscent of the

16:41

country that remember the turmoil that

16:43

I remember from nineteen seventy eight and nineteen

16:45

seventy nine. Kids were

16:48

ripping up the images of

16:50

Deschamps out of their textbooks. They

16:53

were tearing down, you

16:55

know, the images of the supreme leader this time

16:57

around from their classrooms. there

17:01

is a unified movement

17:04

throughout the country that

17:06

is focused on a singular

17:09

slogan, we have never heard, which

17:11

was woman life freedom. And

17:14

I think it signals toward

17:17

a major, major shift. from

17:19

all the past demonstrations that we've seen

17:21

before.

17:22

What I noticed, Roya, was

17:24

that they were tearing up pictures

17:27

not just of Ayatollah Khomeini, the

17:29

current supreme leader. But

17:31

of Ayatollah Khomeini, the founding

17:34

supreme leader of of Iran,

17:36

which strikes me as almost getting

17:38

to the core of the regime's legitimacy.

17:42

Precisely,

17:42

you're exactly right.

17:45

No demonstration in the past. No

17:48

protests. no group that

17:50

had come out to

17:52

to object to the regime had ever

17:54

gone this far. And this

17:56

moment where they are saying not

17:59

only the president, not only

18:01

the current supreme leader, but the

18:03

very founder of this regime is

18:05

the very person that we no longer

18:07

want to identify with. I think

18:10

is the signal that we have reached

18:12

a point of no return, that the nation

18:14

has crossed a boundary that

18:16

it had never crossed before.

18:17

Why do you think Masa

18:20

Mini, her case? Why

18:22

did it trigger this?

18:25

because she's every woman. Because

18:29

first of all, she was a

18:31

Kurdish woman. She was in Tehran

18:34

with her brother for a visit.

18:37

She was not an activist. She was

18:39

not in any shape or form political.

18:42

And the fact that she was every woman,

18:44

the fact that she was ordinary is

18:47

the reason why everybody is

18:49

I think, so up in arms because

18:52

she could be me, she could be anybody's

18:54

sister, she could be anybody's mother,

18:57

And and if that happened to

19:00

her, then no woman in Iran

19:02

could possibly be safe.

19:03

I think I read somewhere

19:07

that you wrote that its Iranian have

19:09

tried protesting asking

19:11

for reform in so many ways. You

19:13

know, there was the green movement that

19:15

elected a reformist president. In

19:18

fact, twice, Rahatomi and

19:20

Rouhani, and nothing

19:22

seems to work. Is

19:25

this Do you think it's fair to say this

19:27

is now for at least these Iranians

19:29

are called not for reform, but

19:31

but revolution.

19:33

This is way past reform. People

19:36

gave reform. a lot of

19:38

time to work and it didn't. So

19:40

they have turned to revolution, and

19:42

that's precisely what's happening in

19:45

Iran at the moment.

19:46

In the past, these

19:48

protests have not

19:49

led to anything. Can

19:52

they succeed this time?

19:54

The demonstrators are saying that they don't

19:56

intend to go home and they don't intend

19:58

to stop. The regime, the system,

20:00

has entirely lost its legitimacy.

20:03

Now whether the demonstrators succeed

20:05

or not will in part depend

20:08

on the support that the international community

20:11

and the United States will provide them.

20:13

and they should have every incentive,

20:16

especially America, to do just

20:18

that. For forty plus years,

20:20

the United States has been waiting

20:22

for Iranians to stop burning American

20:25

flags, burning the US refugees

20:27

of Uncle Sam, and

20:30

and not considering the United States

20:32

not calling the United States the great Satan?

20:35

Well, these demonstrators are

20:37

out on the streets and what they're

20:39

saying the slogans that they're chanting

20:41

is our enemy

20:43

is right here. They lie when they

20:46

say it's the United States. We

20:48

have reached a point that we have

20:50

always wanted to reach as Americans. Iranians

20:54

have foregone of the

20:56

hostility that they've had with us.

20:59

Now, will we

21:01

hear the voice of the people? as Americans

21:04

will be side with the people

21:06

and do the right thing this time to

21:09

correct all of our past mistakes

21:11

as Americans in Iran and and

21:13

other places in the Middle East where we

21:15

identify ourselves. We side with

21:17

the tyrants. And

21:20

and do we hear deployed

21:22

of the people. That will depend

21:24

on us. And if we do that, if

21:26

we write the things that we have done

21:28

wrong, historically, then the

21:30

demonstrators will certainly have

21:32

a shot at at accomplishing

21:35

what they have come out on the streets to accomplish.

21:38

Roya, thank you so much. That was

21:41

very, very insightful. Thank

21:43

you.

21:45

Next on GPS, a

21:47

coalition of major oil producing

21:49

nations announced a major cut in production

21:52

this week. That is good news for

21:54

Putin and bad news for Biden.

21:56

We

21:56

will help you make sense of it all in a moment.

22:03

On Wednesday, OPEC and

22:05

other major oil producing nations, including

22:08

Russia, announced that they would cut oil

22:10

production by two million barrels

22:12

a day or about two percent of global

22:15

demand. The grouping known as OPEC

22:17

plus is working to reverse a

22:19

steady slide in oil prices

22:21

since June. This decision is

22:23

a win for Vladimir Putin who wants

22:25

to prop up oil prices to keep funding

22:28

the war in Ukraine. It's a defeat

22:30

for the White House, which aggressively lobbied

22:32

its Middle East allies against this move.

22:35

by wants to keep gas prices down

22:37

ahead of the midterm elections. Joining

22:40

me now to explain it all is Amrita

22:42

Sen, director and founder

22:44

of research and energy aspects.

22:46

I'm really welcome.

22:48

Thank you. Thank you so much for having me.

22:50

So you are well

22:52

known to have very well placed

22:55

Saudi sources. So let me first ask

22:57

you Why do you think the Saudis

22:59

did what they did?

23:00

Lots of reasons.

23:02

Right? First and foremost, which is something they

23:04

have been talking about. They are worried about

23:07

global recession. session. So they don't

23:09

want to be in a situation, let's say,

23:11

in two or three months time, when

23:13

stocks have built up a lot in oil,

23:16

prices have collapsed to whatever the number

23:18

is. Is it forty, dollars fifty, dollars and

23:20

then that's when they step in cut

23:23

production to balance the market.

23:25

So they are being preemptive. But

23:27

there is one other aspect, which

23:29

I would argue that it's probably not

23:31

been as publicized but has definitely

23:34

played a role in this decision

23:37

is all this talk of a price

23:39

cap. The US and Europe,

23:41

but particularly the US, I would say,

23:44

is really focusing and

23:46

it's trying to rally,

23:48

not just Europe, but also India, China,

23:50

other countries, other buying countries to

23:53

put a price on Russian

23:56

oil. Because ultimately, the White

23:58

House wants to limit the amount of oil

24:00

rev news Russia is getting

24:02

for funding its war. The

24:04

problem is that if you are

24:06

to cap the price of oil, whatever

24:08

that price is for Russia OPAC

24:11

plus fuel in Saudi Arabia included that

24:13

then suddenly they would have to

24:15

sell their oil at that price. So

24:18

let's say Russia agrees

24:20

which they haven't and Putin in particular has

24:23

openly come out and said, by the way, if you do

24:25

the price gap I will just stop supplying you

24:27

with oil. But let's just go with the assumption

24:29

that Russia agrees to a price cap

24:32

of seventy dollars. Then suddenly

24:34

Saudi Arabia will have to sell its oil at

24:36

seventy dollars as will US producers.

24:39

And it just sets a really dangerous

24:41

precedent and the fact that consumers

24:44

get to dictate the price at which

24:46

producers are going to sell is just

24:49

not something OPEC plus are

24:51

even going to entertain.

24:52

So on either what you're describing

24:54

are pretty hard nosed economic

24:57

reasons why the Saudis sort of

24:59

following their economic interests are

25:02

doing this. Do you not

25:04

buy the argument that there was an element

25:06

of this was a kind of snub of

25:08

Biden and a, you know, payback

25:10

for for two years of having boycotted

25:13

MBS. Do you think any of that played a role?

25:17

I don't think so. The reason

25:19

I say this is because There have been

25:22

instances in the past as well

25:24

when this has come up. And

25:26

I think, you know, if Saudi

25:28

Arabia or anybody else, wanted to,

25:30

you know, go ahead and hurt

25:32

quote unquote, hurt the US. They could have done

25:34

it in the past as well. I do

25:36

think, however, This

25:39

does confirm some of the geopolitical

25:41

alliances that have been forming

25:44

already in the past couple of

25:47

months or years, even I would argue.

25:49

And I do look back at Wednesday's

25:51

meeting as a watershed moment for oil

25:53

markets. whenever OPEC

25:55

plus meat, there's always questions

25:57

about is there going to be U. S. pressure

26:00

on OPEC to do something, right? This

26:02

time, I think OPEC plus has shown that

26:05

they are acting in their

26:07

own interest and nobody else's.

26:09

So what can Biden

26:12

do? He's been releasing oil from the strategic

26:14

petroleum reserve. He could do

26:16

more, but that the the reservist is

26:18

getting emptied. what are

26:20

his options if his goal is to increase

26:23

supply and reduce prices?

26:24

They can absolutely release

26:27

more oil from the strategic petroleum reserve

26:29

but this is a time when energy

26:32

security needs to be the priority.

26:34

We have drawn down over two hundred million

26:36

barrels from the strategic petroleum

26:39

reserve, which only had about six

26:41

hundred plus million barrels of

26:43

oil. It's taken the

26:45

U. S. well over three,

26:48

four decades to fill that oil. So

26:50

that is a dangerous move to run it down

26:52

before you actually might need it.

26:55

But yes, that is an option. What

26:57

could work is actually limiting

26:59

diesel and gasoline exports. That's

27:02

something that has been talked about by

27:04

the Department of Energy and

27:06

by the White House. So I think that could definitely

27:08

be on the cons.

27:09

What about increasing supply?

27:12

You know, a lot of the conservative critics

27:14

of Biden, the Wall Street Journal editorial

27:16

page goes on about how,

27:18

you know, they could they you could still increase

27:21

U. S. domestic supply. When I've talked

27:23

to oil companies'

27:25

negatives, they say we're pumping everything

27:28

we can.

27:29

I'm glad you asked that question because

27:31

the last week, I have been

27:33

in the Midwest with mostly oil producers.

27:37

CEOs of large and medium

27:39

sized oil companies and independents. The

27:42

most worrying thing I found out was

27:44

that the best quality of

27:47

areas where US products was

27:49

taking place. The producers have pretty

27:51

much depleted that outside

27:53

of the Permian Basin, which is

27:55

in Texas and around that region. outside

27:58

of that, we are pretty much maxed out.

28:00

So

28:00

and finally, Iran

28:02

and Venezuela. Let's leave the politics of

28:05

whether you could – what the price

28:07

you have to pay to make a Rapprochement

28:10

or to get back into the deal. But from

28:12

a market point of view, if

28:15

those two countries start producing and exporting,

28:18

would that be a big difference?

28:21

Those two are really the only

28:24

hope I would say for the oil market. The

28:26

only two countries that due to sanctions

28:28

are not in the market are Venezuela and

28:30

Iran. Venezuela, the problem

28:32

is it's years of

28:34

dilapidation. The infrastructure has

28:37

been ruined. So even if you were to live

28:39

sanctions tomorrow, it is going to

28:41

take years to bring production back.

28:43

Iran much more quickly

28:46

can come back to the market also because

28:48

Iran is holding about six sixty

28:50

to seventy million

28:50

of oil on ships. A

28:53

lot of hard choices for the Biden administration.

28:55

Thank you.

28:56

Thank you.

28:58

Next on GPS, how to

29:00

make sure your nation doesn't fall apart

29:02

when it's been invaded. Lessons

29:04

from Andre Yermag who's often

29:06

called the second most powerful man in Ukraine.

29:09

That interview after the break.

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plasma center and receive up to a thousand

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dollars your first month. There is by location

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and is subject to change. What

29:46

if you could just pick the world up?

29:48

shake it like an etch a sketch, and then just

29:50

start over from scratch. What

29:53

would your new reality look like?

29:55

I'm Chris Salizant. Join me each week

29:57

on Downside Up, a new podcast from CNN

29:59

as we figure out what our world would look like

30:01

with just a few small changes.

30:04

Listen to the podcast downside up.

30:07

On Apple Podcasts, Spotify iHeartRadio,

30:10

or your favorite podcast app.

30:17

This week, president Biden pledged six

30:20

twenty five million dollars in additional security

30:22

support to Ukraine part of a new

30:25

package that included Highmark's

30:27

armored vehicles and ammunition.

30:29

Days earlier, the US National Security

30:31

Advisor, Jake Sullivan, pledged America's

30:33

steadfast support for Ukraine when

30:35

he traveled to Istanbul to meet with

30:37

the head of Ukraine's presidential office,

30:39

Andre Yarmach. When I was

30:42

in Cuba, sat down with under a year mark,

30:44

President Zelensky stopped aid often

30:46

called the second most powerful man in Ukraine.

30:49

I asked him what it is like to govern a country

30:52

at war. Andrea,

30:53

I'm not pleasure to have you on the program.

30:57

Yes,

30:57

for me for me as well. It's

30:59

big pleasure and big honor to

31:01

meet the few merit.

31:03

Let me ask you about what

31:05

it is like to to run

31:07

a presidential administration

31:10

in circumstances like these. So

31:13

when the war began. When

31:15

you get to the president's office, he

31:17

tell you know, he tells you about the invasion.

31:20

and you stay there and you're working

31:22

there for how long then? For

31:23

how many days? No. It stills.

31:26

We still are there. Yeah. We're still. We're leaving

31:28

you there. Yeah. Living in there. Yes. in

31:30

the buy Yes. In those bankers. Yes.

31:33

Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We were six

31:35

months. Well, six months, we were. Yeah.

31:38

And

31:39

what was your first

31:41

job? What was the first thing you had to do?

31:45

First of all, when I came,

31:47

it was necessary very

31:49

quickly to keep all

31:52

governments, all security

31:56

military people. And during

31:58

the, I think,

31:59

here

32:02

couple hours, everybody was

32:04

meet in the cabinet of the president, but

32:07

that time we are looking

32:09

for our

32:12

country for that

32:15

we need to do our best,

32:18

that our country keep and

32:20

be able to fight things. And you can

32:22

see more than six months,

32:25

we have, yes,

32:26

we saw terrible

32:28

work, but our economy work, our

32:31

people received salary, our

32:33

people received pension, It

32:36

will be impossible if we

32:38

will be first not be prepared.

32:40

So you're in the presidential office. You're living

32:42

there. When do you then see

32:44

your wife and children? A

32:48

few days later, we

32:50

have our – we see our

32:52

families. The

32:57

first, I think it's In

33:00

two months?

33:02

So for two months, you were just working out.

33:04

And your and your family and children, did

33:06

they leave, give, for safety.

33:08

All my family was here in the hotel

33:10

and chief. Yeah. And

33:12

the president's family and the president's

33:14

we done and continue

33:17

doing that we need to do

33:19

because we in this position

33:21

the people elected presidents and

33:24

presidents important to us. We

33:26

are a team of the presidents, and we

33:28

need to do our best

33:31

to win this war, to swive

33:33

our people, what was

33:35

the lesson you took from whom

33:38

from from the first few days, like, when

33:40

you look back, Do you think

33:42

you did you get

33:44

it right? Did you get it wrong? What what did you

33:49

You know, I'm a realist and

33:53

I understand that it's impossible

33:55

to change these first days.

33:58

but

33:59

I'm

33:59

looking to read to the results. We

34:03

already deoccupied big

34:05

part of our territory. we

34:08

are not lose our

34:11

economy. We are not lose

34:15

the manager management

34:18

of the country. And I'm

34:20

so proud that I'm Ukrainian because

34:24

I know that it's a very beautiful

34:27

country. It's the

34:29

best country in the world, but Once

34:32

again, we understood

34:35

that how brave, how

34:37

heroes are our people. I

34:41

think these feelings of proud

34:44

of the ordinary people because

34:47

this war will be win by

34:49

European nation.

34:51

So what did you what did your wife

34:53

tell you about, you you know,

34:55

not being able to see her for months

34:58

was she totally supportive? Was she

35:00

scared? Of course,

35:03

we are worried. about

35:07

them and they worry about us.

35:10

But I think it's more the

35:12

same time I

35:15

never forget that some

35:17

of our people

35:19

never

35:21

can see their relatives their

35:24

family, their children.

35:27

And this is the tragedy which

35:31

We never forget. We never

35:33

forget. And it's as

35:36

why I

35:38

think that the

35:41

and this is a big privilege that

35:45

during this war,

35:48

the ordinary people around the world.

35:51

I'm

35:52

very happy that a lot of Americans Maybe

35:56

some of them just listen

35:58

about

35:59

our country,

36:00

but they so deeply feel

36:04

this

36:04

tragedy.

36:05

They so

36:07

deeply feel

36:10

the you

36:12

disconnections and

36:14

so support

36:16

and so help,

36:18

then I see so many European

36:21

flags in

36:23

Americans buildings. And

36:26

I think that Our

36:29

victory will be definitely

36:32

victory

36:34

together with our partners. together

36:37

these Americans people. And

36:40

it's necessary that it's happened as soon as

36:42

possible. Andrea Marc? Pleasure to have

36:45

you on. Thank you. Thank you for it. Thank you

36:47

very much. Next on

36:49

GPS. Between the war in Ukraine

36:51

and challenges to democracy here in

36:53

America, the news can feel dark.

36:56

I will bring you a piece of positive news

36:58

you will not want to miss when we come back.

37:06

And now for the last look.

37:08

Psychologists tell us that human beings

37:10

are hardwired with a negativity bias.

37:13

meaning that we're overly sensitive to bad

37:15

news. And there's lots of it out there

37:17

these days, the war in Ukraine, challenges

37:20

for democracy in the United States,

37:22

natural disasters. But

37:24

we often miss the good news, especially

37:26

if it doesn't come in the form of a single

37:29

event. One of the most striking

37:31

positive trends in the world these days

37:33

can be found in the democratic strength,

37:36

character, and leadership of Germany.

37:39

something

37:39

I recently wrote about in the Washington

37:41

Post. In

37:42

August, German chancellor Olaf

37:44

Schultz gave a speech in Prague in

37:46

which he promised that his country would support

37:48

Ukraine reliably and for

37:50

as long as it takes. He explained

37:52

that Germany had undergone a fundamental

37:55

change on providing military aid

37:57

to Ukraine. There's some

37:59

validity to the criticism that Germany hasn't

38:02

given enough. But it really

38:04

has given a remarkable amount of aid

38:06

for a country that was so persistently

38:09

pacifist after world war two.

38:11

I had Shoals also affirmed Germany's support

38:13

for a stronger, more integrated Europe.

38:16

One that would welcome new members that aspire

38:18

to Europe's democratic values and ideals.

38:21

This is all part of what he calls

38:24

a Biden vendor in German foreign

38:26

policy, a turning of the times.

38:29

On one level, it is indeed a dramatic

38:31

shift. Yet it is also the

38:33

continuation of a remarkably consistent

38:36

German attitude toward Europe and the

38:38

world, since nineteen forty five.

38:41

Think about how different the world would look

38:43

if we did not have at the center of

38:45

Europe, its most powerful nation.

38:48

the country that is the largest net contributor

38:50

to the European Union, totally

38:53

committed to democratic values and

38:55

willing to make sacrifices for them.

38:58

Germany today is the rock on

39:00

which a new Europe is being built.

39:03

And the sacrifices are real and deep.

39:06

Natural gas prices in Europe have gone

39:08

way up over the last year. Electricity

39:11

prices have skyrocketed as well.

39:14

Putin has ramped up the pressure by cutting

39:16

gas exports to Germany, country

39:18

he thinks he knows very well because of his years

39:21

serving there in the KGB. but

39:24

Germany has not given it. Confronted

39:26

with these massive challenges, it

39:28

has patiently sought to diversify away

39:31

from a dependence on Russia investing

39:33

in green technology, buying liquefied

39:36

natural gas, reopening coal

39:38

fired plants and even keeping

39:40

two of its last three nuclear power plants

39:42

running longer than planned. The

39:44

European Union has suggested a fifteen

39:47

percent reduction in the consumption of

39:49

natural gas this winter. Germany

39:51

is trying to achieve a twenty percent cut

39:53

just to be safe. Initially,

39:56

Schulz was regarded as a lightweight, unable

39:58

to match the gravitas and leadership

39:59

skills of his predecessor, Angela

40:02

Merkel. But Merkel herself was

40:04

seen in similar ways when she came to power.

40:07

Over time, she developed the skills and

40:09

stature to gain respect from all quarters.

40:11

She might have heard in trying to develop two

40:13

conciliatory relationship with Moscow

40:16

But when Russia invaded Ukraine in twenty

40:18

fourteen, she was at the forefront

40:20

in condemning it and persuading Europe

40:22

to impose an ambitious program of sanctions.

40:25

She also led the world in responding

40:27

to the Syrian refugee crisis. Reassuring

40:30

her country by declaring. We

40:32

can do this. I remember

40:35

the reaction to another chancellor, Helmut

40:37

Kohl who was called a colorless man

40:39

from the sticks because he did not come

40:41

from the country's elite class. yet

40:44

he proved to be the man who succeeded in

40:46

reunifying Germany while keeping

40:48

it firmly anchored in the west.

40:51

In nineteen forty five, no one

40:54

would have predicted that Germany would develop

40:56

as it has. It came out of

40:58

the war utterly destroyed, its

41:00

cities flattened, its population starving.

41:03

Post war Germany was scarred by

41:05

the gruesome legacy of Adolph Hitler

41:07

and the Holocaust. but the

41:09

country found a way to overcome

41:12

its past, to become in

41:14

Henry Kissinger's words,

41:15

a normal country with

41:17

an abnormal memory. And

41:20

that much larger site in Wendy,

41:22

turning of the times, is one of

41:24

the great good news stories of

41:26

our times. Thanks to

41:28

all of you for being part of my program this week.

41:31

I will see you next week.

41:35

What

41:36

if you could just pick the world up,

41:38

shake it like an etch a sketch, and then just

41:40

start over from scratch. What

41:43

would your new reality look like?

41:45

I'm Chris Solicit. Join me each week

41:47

on downside up, a new podcast from CNN

41:50

as we figure out what our world would look like

41:52

with just a few small changes.

41:55

Listen to the podcast downside up.

41:57

On Apple Podcast, Spotify iHeartRadio

42:01

or your favorite podcast app.