0:06

This is the weekend edition of Fear and

0:08

Greed, daily business news for people who make

0:10

their own decisions. I'm Michael Thompson and good

0:12

morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael.

0:15

Sean, our weekend show is all about

0:17

the two of us, each nominating what

0:19

we think is the biggest business story

0:21

of the week. The most remarkable business

0:24

story, the sleeper business

0:26

story, business kind of feels a little bit redundant now. I've

0:28

said it so many times, but a sleeper story is kind

0:30

of one that's flying under the radar a little bit, maybe

0:33

going to be a bigger story further down the track.

0:35

Having said that, having said that, quite often your stories

0:37

have little to do with business. Well,

0:40

that's actually why I thought I better just drop

0:43

business altogether from it, because otherwise it sets up

0:45

unrealistic expectations of what I'm going to be offering.

0:48

And of course, it's a

0:50

very competitive environment and we needed

0:52

an adjudicator. And every week, our

0:54

judge is our fear and greed

0:56

colleague, Adam Lang. Adam, good morning. Good

0:58

morning, Michael, and good morning, Sean. What

1:00

are you expecting this morning, Adam? Oh,

1:03

bare knuckle fighting, you know, in a verbal

1:05

sense, of course. Spirited

1:09

competition and only one winner.

1:12

I'm deferring away from drawers today. And

1:15

are you expecting any melodrama? That's

1:19

a rhetorical question, isn't it? Indeed

1:22

it is. Yes, I am, Michael. Very quickly,

1:24

would you like to just give us your,

1:26

in say 20 seconds or less, your criteria?

1:29

OK, it's like that Big Mac challenge where

1:31

you've got to recite all the ingredients really

1:33

quickly, right? So here

1:35

I go. Melodrama,

1:38

topicality, timeliness, economic

1:40

impact and my own subjective bias.

1:43

What is interesting there, Adam, is that

1:45

you suddenly put melodrama number one until

1:48

this week it's always been four or

1:50

five. It's been last. Today you came

1:52

up with melodrama number one, Michael, which

1:54

it all goes well. If

1:56

I'm honest, that's where it belongs. Because

1:59

with. With the right dose of

2:02

melodrama, you can quite effectively disguise

2:04

a lack of depth. That's

2:09

so confessional. Sean,

2:12

biggest story of the week, would you like to

2:15

go first? Thank you Michael.

2:18

I have no melodrama this week, I'm feeling,

2:20

I don't know, pretty, there's just so much

2:23

serious stuff going on, including

2:25

the fact... We

2:29

are a business podcast, Michael, let's

2:31

keep that in mind. Including

2:34

the fact that the Reserve Bank board left the benchmark cash rate

2:36

at 4.35%. However,

2:39

the big news out of that was

2:41

that it sharply revised upwards its inflation

2:44

forecast, warning that the pace of

2:46

price growth isn't falling as fast as hoped. The

2:48

board expects that it will be some time

2:50

before inflation is sustainably in the target range,

2:53

sometime in the middle of next year or

2:55

later, and the bank isn't ruling

2:57

anything in or out.

2:59

Now for most of us, the mortgage

3:01

or credit card debt or car loan

3:03

or something like that, it

3:05

means we'll keep paying these 12 year

3:07

high interest rates for the foreseeable future

3:10

and economists reckon it will be for at

3:12

least the rest of this year. I think

3:15

that's really what we found out this week,

3:18

is that for the rest of this year, rates aren't

3:21

going to change. One thing

3:23

to take away from the Reserve

3:26

Bank board meeting was that the statement

3:28

that came out with it wasn't quite

3:30

as hawkish or downbeat on getting inflation

3:32

under control, as some has expected.

3:34

It kind of kept to its neutral tone in

3:37

the statement. Now in the press conference afterwards, Governor

3:39

Michelle Bullock was perhaps a little more downbeat

3:41

hawkish, however you want to put it. I

3:44

mentioned at the beginning the inflation numbers. It's up to

3:46

CPI forecast to the end of June to 3.8%. That's

3:50

quite a jump. It was 3.3%. The

3:53

issue there is sticky services

3:55

inflation, SSI, sticky services inflation. That

3:58

isn't an acronym. anyone else has

4:00

ever used but I'm going to

4:02

throw it in there. Things like

4:04

rent, insurance, education, stuff like that.

4:06

Stuff that you've got to buy. It's really

4:08

hard to get those prices down. Basically, the

4:10

bottom line to all this is

4:13

certainly the timing of any rate cut

4:15

has been pushed out, but

4:17

the consensus among economists is that the next

4:19

move will be down, but not for a

4:22

while. Big story this week. Michael,

4:25

I feel sorry for Hawkes. Well,

4:27

there's probably plenty of very gentle

4:29

peace-loving Hawkes out there

4:31

just circling around paddocks looking

4:33

for a mouse and things like this,

4:35

or maybe they're vegetarian. They don't even

4:37

kill nice. I don't know. What about

4:40

sharks? What should I feel Adam that

4:42

sometimes when there is a big story

4:44

like the economy, Michael just sort

4:46

of jumps in and tries to divert all

4:48

semblance of sensibility. Yeah, usually it's an

4:51

airplane. Like look, there's an airplane, but

4:53

today it's done with a Hawke. What

4:56

about something that is really aggressive like

4:58

an Eastern brown snake? So you could

5:00

say that Governor Michelle Bullock,

5:03

like Governor Michelle Bullock was in

5:06

the press conference afterwards, was a little more

5:08

Eastern brown snake-ish. That feels

5:10

like it's kind of got more... Uniquely

5:13

Australian. Yes, or Taipan. So it was

5:15

a bit more Taipan-ish. That'll work.

5:18

Sorry, Taipan's more dangerous than the

5:20

brown snake? Well,

5:22

the inland Taipan, which is

5:25

a variety of Taipan, is

5:28

in fact the deadliest snake in the

5:30

world in terms of the number. Yeah,

5:32

in terms of the potency of its

5:34

venom and things, but it's less, perhaps

5:37

you would say, less dangerous than say

5:39

your Eastern brown because they're actually confined

5:41

to quite a small part

5:43

of Australia and they're quite shy. They don't

5:45

come into contact with people that often. So

5:47

therefore they're considered to be less dangerous, even

5:50

though they are more deadly. There you go.

5:52

So the funding that goes into the health system because

5:54

of the Eastern brown is far greater than the funding

5:56

that goes into the health system. I'm just trying to

5:58

bring it back to economics or business. or

6:00

something vaguely. You've done it. I

6:02

mean, this is all about the budget, Mike, I presume. Well,

6:06

in fact, Sean, you're right, because this is, and

6:08

this might sound a little unorthodox, that

6:11

I'm nominating my biggest story this week as

6:14

something that hasn't actually happened yet. Before

6:20

you go on, Michael, are you sure this is

6:22

the right category? Yes. I'm not going

6:25

to suggest that it's a sleeper story. The

6:28

fact is that the federal budget's happening in a

6:30

couple of days' time, but the

6:32

thing is with budgets, there is very

6:35

little left unknown by the time Tuesday

6:37

night rolls around. So really,

6:39

it's kind of almost just a symbolic thing,

6:41

the Tuesday budget. I think that

6:43

we can actually almost lead the way on

6:45

this and declare, we can break the news

6:47

that the budget was in fact the biggest story

6:50

of the week, the week before it comes

6:52

out. Every

6:54

day this week, there is many more budget news.

6:57

The week started with a major story on

7:00

the indexation of HECS debt now being tied

7:02

to either inflation or wages growth, whichever is

7:04

lower. And that's big. That

7:06

has a big economic impact. Because it's being backdated to last

7:08

year, it's going to see $3.2 billion wiped from HECS

7:11

debt, massive, massive. And Adam,

7:13

I'm very glad that you're sitting down

7:16

right now, because we already know, we

7:18

found out this week that the budget

7:20

is going to contain meaningful

7:23

tax reform. Think

7:25

tax breaks. Tax

7:30

breaks for businesses in line with the

7:32

Future Made in Australia strategy, big story,

7:35

even if we don't have all the

7:37

details yet, even the mention of tax

7:39

reform is enough in your case to

7:41

get the pulse racing. And

7:43

there's plenty of other reform too. You've

7:45

got significant funding of government services to

7:47

address customer backlogs, modernised digital infrastructure, $90

7:50

million to train more apprentices, a bunch

7:52

of other measures to help deal with

7:54

chronic housing shortages, more relief for the

7:56

cost of living, including support for those

7:58

who don't benefit from... stage 3 tax

8:00

cuts, think pensioners, fixed

8:03

income. There are concerns obviously

8:05

as you'd expect that any spending to help those

8:07

who are struggling could potentially have an effect on

8:09

inflation. Adam, Adam, the

8:12

budget is huge. The budget is

8:14

vast. The budget is mighty in

8:17

its impact on business, on taxpayers,

8:19

the broader public. So I'm sure

8:21

that Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who is

8:23

more likely than not to be

8:25

a listener to this podcast on

8:27

what basis. I have no proof

8:29

whatsoever of that. It just kind of feels like

8:31

the kind of thing that he would listen to

8:34

in which case Treasurer, I'm sorry you had to

8:36

listen to all of that nonsense about type hands

8:38

before, but I'm sure he'll be very pleased to

8:40

learn that his budget is

8:42

the biggest story of the week, even before

8:44

he's handed it down. Adam.

8:48

Okay. Do you get

8:50

the feeling we're in a build up to an

8:52

election, Michael? I do. Every

8:54

year election term, one

8:57

year to go until the election has to be

8:59

held. Yeah, budget leaks,

9:01

they're definitely happening, but in

9:03

composite, while they're all really good stories,

9:06

they're just not as big as the

9:08

inflation forecast being revised upward. It's

9:12

just the narrow victory to Sean on this one.

9:14

He has to win and God,

9:16

I hope the RBA forecast

9:19

is wrong. I hope inflation does come down

9:21

more quickly. So

9:24

I didn't want to say anything, but I'm

9:26

going to because you've made your

9:28

pronouncement. Thank you. I just reckon

9:30

that this is a really boring budget. So all that

9:32

stuff, right? I just don't think they're going

9:34

to do much. I mean, I know you listed

9:36

a bunch of $90 million things in a $750 billion. Yeah,

9:40

very exciting stuff. But

9:42

I just, I actually don't think, in fact,

9:44

I'm going generous

9:47

of me. You can do the budget

9:49

next week, Michael, is the biggest story. Oh, that's

9:51

good. It's yours. That

9:54

is, it is so generous. Sure. Thank

9:56

you. If it's really boring, perhaps

9:59

I'll do it as well. my sleeper story. You

10:03

know what happened this way guys, the budget,

10:05

but no one really can. Yeah, and Michael,

10:08

the meaningful tax

10:10

reform, meaningful, the word is subjective, isn't

10:12

it? So we'll see how meaningful it

10:14

ends up being. I

10:16

still think I was ripped off to have lost

10:18

just then considering the two main

10:21

features of your story, Sean, where the rates were

10:23

on hold and they were

10:25

maintaining a neutral tone, both

10:27

of which kind of imply that very little actually

10:29

happened. But I reckon I was ripped off because

10:31

I only won that narrowly. Your

10:34

story was about something that hasn't happened. Yeah,

10:37

I'm actually quite amazed by that as

10:39

well. I'd love to

10:41

know just how narrow it was. Let's move

10:43

on to most remarkable story and

10:46

I'm going to go first on this one. This

10:50

week, really, when you assess that

10:52

when you take a step back and look and

10:54

just gaze upon the days

10:57

leading up to this, like, God, I'm a

10:59

wanker sometimes. What

11:04

I love is that we sit here and

11:07

you start talking and Adam and I just

11:09

sort of glance at each other and it's

11:11

like, oh, I guess let him go. And

11:14

for once, for once I

11:16

joined with you thinking I

11:18

gave voice to what you

11:20

were both thinking. But

11:23

this was a remarkable week for what

11:25

I'm going to class just as a

11:27

general overall and umbrella term of corporate

11:29

rehabilitation. But in reality, in reality, it's

11:31

just a way to combine two big

11:33

stories into one and double my chances

11:35

of winning. Optus

11:38

got a new CEO, Stephen Roo, who's currently

11:40

the head of NBN Co.

11:42

jumping ship very slowly.

11:44

If you picture him jumping ship from

11:46

the NBN Co. into the water and

11:48

just slowly, slowly, slowly drifting his way

11:50

over to Australia's number two telco because

11:52

he doesn't actually start until kind of

11:54

later this year. But this change, this

11:56

change could be exactly what Optus needs.

11:58

A very experienced player. in

12:00

the industry coming across to steady the ship,

12:03

a very kind of nautical kind of theme today,

12:06

after a disastrous 18 months.

12:08

Last year's massive Optus outage and the

12:10

huge cyber attack the previous year that

12:12

saw customers data land on the dark

12:14

web, it all did a massive amount

12:16

of brand damage to Optus. And this

12:19

week... Can you say massive again? Massive.

12:22

Hmm. Great word. Yes.

12:28

Is it the word itself or is

12:30

it the fact that it's impossible to

12:32

say it without just going... Massive. Yeah.

12:34

Massive. Anyway, sorry, I was interested in

12:36

your story. Don't mind me though, I

12:38

just got to hang up on one

12:40

word. Well, you should be interested because

12:43

this week, Sean, this week Optus turned

12:45

a corner, which is interesting

12:47

if they were a ship because it's hard to kind of turn

12:49

a corner in the ocean. But anyway, it turned a corner. Kelly

12:52

Bae Rosmarin's departure CEO in November,

12:55

stops the bleeding. God, this is a very mixed

12:57

metaphor, isn't it? This is it. The

12:59

ship was leaking. I think she stops the

13:02

leaking. It plugged the leaks and

13:04

now the telco can start

13:06

rebuilding and repairing. And it's

13:08

the same thing for the

13:10

ships of the skies with

13:13

Qantas. This

13:18

week, I refer back to my earlier assessment

13:20

of myself, this week, the

13:22

national carrier reached a deal with the ACCC to pay

13:24

a $120 million penalty over the sale of

13:29

tickets on flights that had already been cancelled. In

13:32

case you had forgotten, it was kind of the straw

13:34

that broke the camel's back last year because camels are

13:36

of course the ships of the desert. And

13:38

then saw CEO

13:41

Alan Joyce bow to quite a lot of

13:44

pressure and step down early. That's

13:46

now behind them. That is behind Qantas.

13:49

I'm gesturing so wildly. I'm sending things

13:51

all over the studio here. That

13:54

is now behind Qantas and new CEO

13:56

Vanessa Hudson fronted investors this week and

13:58

revealed that demand for premium economy. and

14:00

business and first class is stronger than ever.

14:02

It sounds to me like Qantas might just

14:04

have turned a corner this week as

14:07

well. Optus and Qantas,

14:09

the two most damaged brands in

14:11

Australia last year, both

14:13

taking massive steps to repair their

14:16

image in the same week. That's

14:19

remarkable. That is massive. It's massive.

14:21

Massive, huge. Massive. My most remarkable

14:23

story for the week. It's

14:26

what's happening finally to consumer

14:29

discretionary stocks. Like

14:31

the name suggests, they represent discretionary

14:34

spending. Think JB HiFi,

14:36

Baby Bunting, Super Retail Group,

14:38

that's got super cheap auto, one of your favourites,

14:41

Michael Rebel, et cetera. Nick Scarley,

14:43

Harvey Norman, Temple and Webster. Their

14:45

share prices towards the end of the week had

14:47

a very rough ride. This

14:49

is the week where the economic reality of

14:51

higher interest rates and costs of limiting expenses

14:54

really caught up with share prices

14:56

or maybe, actually maybe share prices caught

14:58

up with the reality of the cost of living.

15:02

The sell off was triggered by bad news from

15:04

retail darling JB HiFi. It posted flat sales during

15:06

the March quarter. Its share price tumbled nearly 5%.

15:09

Super Retail, it gave a

15:11

sales update. It said turnover was off 1%. Its

15:14

share price fell more than 5%. Baby

15:17

Bunting was worst of all. It said sales are

15:19

actually going backwards. Share price down 23%. Temple

15:22

and Webster was down 18%. It's

15:24

basically the same story across the sector.

15:26

Families just don't have money after they

15:28

pay for their insurance and housing and

15:30

education, all that stuff, to spend

15:33

on necessary items. The

15:35

consumer discretionary stocks have

15:37

hit a wall. Now, why

15:40

this is really quite so remarkable

15:42

in my mind is that they've actually done

15:44

really well. Stocks like JB

15:46

HiFi, Harvey Norman, they're up about 20% over the past year

15:48

and it's only now that

15:51

they've turned and they're going the other way.

15:54

It probably shouldn't be a surprise because

15:58

you'd expect that given the slowdown in the the

16:00

economy but it hadn't happened until this week. And

16:02

I just think watching the interplay

16:05

I suppose between economics and the real

16:07

world and what's happening with

16:09

share prices, pretty remarkable really. Wouldn't you

16:11

agree Adam? I do agree

16:14

it is pretty remarkable. Michael

16:16

back to your

16:18

massive story. Do

16:21

you remember the band Massive Attack? Do

16:24

I lose points if I... You

16:27

must Massive Attack. So

16:29

out of Bristol, England,

16:32

wonderful songs, protection. Anyway as you kept saying

16:34

Massive I just kept hearing that music in

16:36

the back of my head. Nicely

16:39

I was hoping for you. And

16:41

in terms of your just wonderful metaphor

16:44

of the ship. So Michael

16:46

is business the ship of humanity?

16:49

Well no business is the ocean on

16:51

which all of these individual ships are

16:55

sailing. Very good, thank you. That

16:59

rehabilitation for me

17:01

has to win for story of the week this

17:03

week. The reason is I

17:06

think it's remarkable that Qantas has done

17:08

this deal with the ACCC and if

17:12

you look at the intrinsic of what

17:14

they've done not all

17:16

customers really are making

17:19

this work well. This system of

17:21

repaying or reclaiming these

17:23

Qantas flight credits and

17:26

Joe Aston wrote a ripping article in the Sydney Morning

17:28

Herald this week about it. But

17:30

the fact that they've managed to

17:32

really build the brand while coming

17:34

to an acceptable outcome with the

17:36

ACCC and be seen to have

17:38

done it well I think is remarkable. And

17:40

Optus new CEO doesn't start as you say

17:43

till November Michael but already the

17:45

brand is better off for it. So I think

17:48

it is the most remarkable story of the week. Well

17:50

done. Have you put your points

17:52

in yet? Have you written? Yes. Yes.

17:56

No. Fair enough. Mine

17:58

was dodgy as all hell. It's

18:02

just made up, they're mine, that was dreadful. Yeah,

18:04

Sean, while Adam was going through his judgement,

18:07

I think that was the first time you

18:09

haven't looked as though

18:11

you felt ripped off. It

18:14

actually felt as though this was the first time you actually

18:16

felt that you deserved to lose. The

18:18

first time in nearly four years, it makes

18:20

me think the judge has done it. When

18:22

going against me has done the right thing.

18:24

Unprecedented. Alright, but you know what this means.

18:26

It means it's won all. One and a

18:28

half time. This is a competition.

18:31

Unlike the last few weeks, which has definitely not been

18:33

a competition because I've been beaten like that. Well.

18:37

A drubbing, I think each week. This

18:39

week it is not. I'm heading to a victory. It's going to

18:41

be glorious. We'll be back in a moment.

18:50

Alright, Sean, we are looking for a sleeper story.

18:52

A sleeper story is of course one that's not

18:55

getting the attention that perhaps you feel that it

18:57

deserves or I feel it deserves and that can

18:59

be very subjective. What

19:01

is it for you this week, Sean?

19:03

Well, it's really about what Adam

19:06

thinks is getting the attention it deserves. Not you,

19:08

alright? Yeah, I'd like that as fair. And

19:11

he being an economist,

19:13

a CEO, a man who loves banks. No

19:17

problems. I have this one. We

19:20

have now had three of the big four

19:22

banks provide half year earnings and Commonwealth Bank,

19:24

the other one, provided third quarter earnings. What's

19:27

most notable is the big

19:29

buybacks the banks are doing. National Australia Bank is

19:31

doing a one and a half billion dollar buyback.

19:33

Westpac's a billion. ANZ's two billion.

19:35

A buyback is exactly what it sounds

19:37

like. The company, in this case the

19:39

banks, they're actually buying back their own

19:41

shares. It means there are fewer shares on

19:44

issue and assuming the profit doesn't change, it

19:46

means earnings for every share,

19:48

earnings per share, actually rises.

19:50

So the idea is you buy your stuff

19:52

back, you buy your stock back and

19:55

share prices rise good for shareholders.

19:58

It also suggests... that management

20:00

and the board haven't found anything better to

20:02

do with the money. So

20:05

they've got ANZ, $2 billion sitting there, what

20:07

are we going to do with the $2 billion? Well, we

20:09

could buy a business, grow our business or

20:11

we could return it to shareholders. There's nothing

20:13

wrong with the share buyback, but

20:17

they're just not spending on anything, on a

20:19

new business, expanding an old business. To

20:21

actually improve earnings in the future, you

20:24

need to be spending your money on building

20:26

your business, not necessarily giving it

20:28

to shareholders. It might look good in

20:30

the short term, a share buyback, but they actually do very

20:32

little to grow a business. And this is where the sleeper

20:34

part of the story comes in. If

20:37

senior management and boards aren't sure where growth is

20:39

going to come from within the banks,

20:43

then how do we know where growth

20:45

is going to come from? How can we

20:47

judge that? And these companies are trading at

20:49

multi-year highs in share price terms. So they're

20:51

buying back their shares when they're at multi-year

20:53

highs. I prefer them to actually buy back

20:55

their shares at multi-year lows,

20:57

to be honest. But the fact that

20:59

they're doing it, it just worries me that there

21:02

aren't any other options to grow the

21:04

business. Many things, and

21:06

particularly given the banks are trading so

21:08

high at the moment, many things, bank

21:10

investors might be in for a bit

21:12

of a rocky road over the coming

21:14

year or so. Plenty of professional analysts

21:17

reckon that the banks are overpriced. Obviously, we are

21:19

not investing in podcasts, so must go and make

21:21

your own decision using a financial advisor. But I

21:24

just reckon it's going to be a tough time

21:26

for the banks to have in the next 12

21:28

months or so. And I think they share buybacks

21:31

kind of prove the point. That's a bit

21:33

worthy, wasn't it? Very sombre. Did I

21:35

say worthy or wordy? Probably both. Sorry,

21:42

that was unkind. But

21:44

Adam, I've got a

21:46

ripper of a sleeper story this week. Alrighty.

21:49

And it comes from one of your

21:51

favourite commissions, the Productivity

21:53

Commission. Of course.

21:56

It is all about the My Health

21:59

Record. Data. A very quick

22:01

refresher. My

22:03

Health Record is a digital record of

22:05

your health data, obviously, as it sounds. It's

22:07

designed to allow patients to see kind of

22:09

different doctors and specialists, et cetera, about a

22:11

whole lot of different things and your records

22:13

kind of travel with you. Okay.

22:16

I think the extraordinary thing about this is

22:18

I think we've all seen instances of doctors

22:21

still having to fax over records and the

22:23

like to a specialist before an appointment, which

22:25

just seems completely ridiculous that I reckon

22:27

doctors and medical centers are the only place

22:29

actually still using faxes in 2024. But

22:32

there's only a few buyers of that thermal

22:34

roll paper still in existence. It's

22:38

quite a niche market now, isn't it? Just

22:41

medical clinics. I think it's the smell they

22:43

like. Anyway,

22:46

the fact is the problem here is

22:49

that the My Health Record system isn't

22:51

being used. Well, certainly not

22:53

to its full potential because at the moment,

22:55

and this data is ridiculous, at the moment,

22:58

just 2% of documents

23:00

in the system are being looked at by

23:02

doctors. Records are

23:04

incomplete. There's poor interoperability and

23:07

it's got poor usability. No,

23:11

there's poor what? It

23:14

sort of feels like you're trying to draw attention

23:16

to words that I sometimes struggle with, but

23:18

I can say it again quite

23:20

happily. There is poor interoperability. Adam,

23:22

can you say that word? Interoperability.

23:28

Interoperability. And it's poor. It's poor.

23:30

It's actually quite poor. The

23:34

interoperability, it's

23:37

got poor usability as well. But the

23:39

thing is, this is a $2 billion

23:42

system and it's the way

23:44

of the future. As I said through the

23:46

week on the show, one day we're going

23:48

to look back on this in disbelief because

23:51

the way it is now with siloed information

23:53

between different medical professions is positively prehistoric. So

23:56

the sleeper story is that this massive opportunity,

23:58

this chance to bring the massive... It's

24:00

back. It's back. This massive

24:02

opportunity, this chance to bring

24:04

the medical records of Australians

24:07

well into the 21st century is

24:09

being missed. It's being neglected and

24:12

the Productivity Commission. Thank

24:14

God for the Productivity Commission because their

24:16

report this week has really trained a

24:19

spotlight on that. So stand by for

24:21

a push to get clinicians, clinicians, oh

24:23

dear Lord, there's another one, clinicians, clinicians

24:26

who are struggling with the interoperability of this

24:28

system. Well done. To get them using it,

24:31

to get them storing patients data on the

24:33

system to make it easier for them to

24:35

use and to actually get them using it.

24:37

This is live reform, a

24:39

real life productivity measure that'll make

24:42

a massive difference. God,

24:44

I use that word a lot. So

24:46

the lives of everyday Australians, nobody's talking

24:48

about it. But that's because we are

24:50

all resigned to it being a clunky

24:53

stone age process using fax machines. Here

24:55

comes the future and we can thank

24:57

the Productivity Commission for getting us there.

24:59

A great sleeper story. Oh

25:02

my word, the melodrama. Just

25:04

superb. So data

25:06

systems efficiency customer service. Michael,

25:09

it's like you're speaking my

25:11

language. I hope so. Does

25:14

it translate into points? Well, yes,

25:16

it translates into points, but how

25:18

many? Right. So Sean,

25:20

this is a really

25:23

big one, this sleeper

25:25

story, shared by fax.

25:28

And I wonder too, and

25:31

the catalyst for me wondering about it

25:33

was your newsletter on Wednesday, which was

25:36

awesome. And the point around

25:38

shared by fax, yes, they don't have any

25:40

better option for growth and buying back their

25:42

own shares and their trading and high values.

25:44

But I also have to observe that

25:46

no doubt some of the executives

25:49

are on incentive plans, including shares.

25:51

And it's also in their interest

25:54

to boost the value of those shares when

25:56

there are less of them. Faking like a former CEO.

26:00

Never did a share my back shit. No right. But

26:03

you wish you had. If only. But

26:05

you know so to me that is

26:07

a really big sleeper story. Michael

26:12

just just buy a whisk and get

26:14

you on melodrama. So Michael

26:17

wins sleeper story of the week. Now on melodrama

26:19

he gets me by a thousand

26:21

whiskers. On story

26:23

absolutely not. But you

26:25

are the judge. I will give that to you. And

26:29

as Adam said at the start melodrama was

26:31

the prime criteria. That's right.

26:34

To my health thing though. I

26:36

mean what you've

26:38

just said like we've known that for so I'm

26:40

not so points are in I get that. Why

26:43

don't why don't the medical profession just use the

26:45

friggin. Oh I find it

26:47

frustrating because nothing happened this week of

26:49

any difference whatsoever. It's just this has been

26:51

going on for months and years and

26:55

everyone complains about it but nothing

26:57

happens. Federation of State Sean. That's

26:59

where I put it. And

27:02

once and once again Adam uses

27:05

this show to push to

27:07

push his own little agenda. I

27:11

love that. So does that mean then is

27:14

that two one my way. Yes Michael.

27:16

Can I I'm going to go for my favorite story

27:19

because I think it's the cracking story. Oh yeah please.

27:22

Right now AVZ minerals.

27:25

My favorite story for all the

27:27

wrong reasons. You need

27:29

to know the history of this one. It's

27:31

a lithium explorer and shareholders now face one

27:33

of the biggest wealth wipeouts in

27:35

history. Well at least

27:37

ASX history after management said it

27:39

will be list from the ASX on

27:42

Monday coming nine days time. The

27:45

Perth based explorer has more than 21,000 shareholders

27:47

paper wealth of 2.8 billion dollars tied

27:49

up in shares that last traded on

27:51

the ASX in May 2022. Now

27:55

AVZ minerals is in dispute over ownership

27:57

rights to potentially the world's largest lithium.

27:59

the IBM deposit called

28:02

Manono, M-A-N-O-N-O,

28:04

Manono, Manono, in

28:07

the Democratic Republic of Congo. The

28:10

board has now said it will not seek

28:12

to be reinstated on the ASX, blaming the

28:14

prospective delisting on the Congolese government's failure to

28:17

comply with court orders, a bunch of

28:19

other battles to stop Chinese and Congolese

28:21

mining rivals for control of this Manono

28:24

tenement in Congo Southwest. That's

28:27

all the background. What's really

28:29

interesting? So AVZ's market valuation hit $4.6 billion

28:31

in April 2022 when it came out and

28:33

said that it's

28:38

likely to secure the license to

28:40

mine the Manono deposit. Now

28:43

this Manono deposit is massive.

28:46

A month later AVZ

28:49

said, we're actually going to have to go into a massive...

28:51

Yeah, it did not have enough melodrama

28:54

behind us, Sean. You've got to really

28:56

take it from your diaphragm. Massive,

28:59

massive. Right, there we go. The

29:02

next month the explorer entered a trading halt after

29:05

it said to investors that it faced

29:07

a legal dispute with Chinese and Congolese

29:09

rivals over it. Hasn't traded since. It's

29:12

very possible there's no value left in the company now

29:14

because it's facing all sorts of legal action all over

29:16

the place. It's got

29:18

$4.2 million cash in hand. They'll go

29:20

on those legal disputes. So

29:22

2.8 billion

29:24

is its worth, but a month prior to

29:27

that $4.6 billion and that basically has

29:31

gone and all the shareholders

29:33

will get nothing back or very entirely

29:36

unlikely that they will get anything back.

29:39

I just think like everything wrong with that basically

29:43

a mining yarn, it's about

29:45

working with sovereign risk.

29:47

So working in Africa where the

29:50

rule of law isn't probably as

29:52

sturdy as it might be in

29:55

Australia. The fact

29:57

that shareholders were told something and suddenly four

29:59

weeks later they were told hold something else,

30:01

they lost a massive amount of money, lack

30:03

of communication with shareholders, the

30:06

loss of value, just a really great

30:08

yarn about a business. Not

30:12

much melodrama but I think the fact that the

30:14

story itself is such an incredible story does it.

30:18

Boys, let's say something. I like that theory. What

30:22

is it kind of favourite yarn of the week

30:25

rather than a positive favourite, it is

30:27

definitely a big story. In

30:30

fact, H.I.H. I think was probably

30:32

the biggest insurance crowd. But

30:35

this one, if you take it as, because

30:37

some people got money back in that,

30:40

but I think it was worth 5 billion

30:42

in total but there was money that went

30:44

back. This is 4.6 billion dollars

30:47

from the April 22 moment so this could be even bigger

30:49

than H.I.H. Incredible

30:51

story. Michael. Yeah, I

30:54

think that is a great story and I wasn't going to

30:56

interrupt with any kind of criticism because I thought it was

30:58

excellent. There we go. That's good. See,

31:01

that's how I am when I'm leading, going

31:03

into the final round. A very generous spirit,

31:05

good sport. Favourite

31:07

story, it takes a lot for me not to

31:09

choose an airline story or a space story. This

31:12

week we actually had the potential for either, for

31:14

any of these things. We had Qantas, we had

31:16

Bonsa, we had a new planet that's too

31:18

far away and actually too hot to actually be of any

31:20

use to us. All good options

31:22

for my favourite story. And I've gone for

31:25

this one because it actually

31:28

affects everyone in every

31:30

workplace around Australia. There is

31:32

new research from the Australian

31:34

HR Institute that

31:36

shows that 57% of employers believe

31:39

the skills gap is harming organisations.

31:41

Now that's pretty alarming but

31:43

this next stat is the one

31:45

that will shock you to your

31:48

very core without kind of overstating

31:50

this. According

31:52

to this research from a survey of more than 600 senior

31:55

HR professionals and business leaders, almost

31:58

20% of workers... are not

32:02

proficient in their role. And

32:04

that caused me to ponder naturally

32:08

about fear and greed. So

32:12

a little process of elimination here. We've

32:14

got our producer, Luke, who is brilliant

32:17

at his job. Very skilled, really. So it's

32:19

not him. No. Stephen Kukoulis,

32:21

our resident economist, who's on the

32:24

week ahead every Monday. Absolute proficiency. He is

32:26

more than proficient. So that's 40% of

32:28

the fear and greed team. And

32:31

that just leaves the three of us. This

32:33

process of elimination. The one in five. He

32:35

gives the short straw. The one in five

32:37

has to be one of us sitting here

32:39

in the studio. And I hate to say

32:41

it. I hate to say it. To

32:43

the judge. No, no. Stand

32:46

by, Adam. As the only

32:48

person of the three of us who

32:50

knew very little about kind of arguably

32:53

business when we started a business

32:56

podcast, I'm a little worried that it could be

32:58

me. Because, because

33:01

listen to my reasoning here. Hold

33:03

on. Don't, don't go be nice to the judge. Go

33:05

on. We've got, we've got,

33:07

we've got you, Sean, the business journalist.

33:09

You've been covering business since before business

33:11

was even invented. And

33:13

then, then over here, we've got Adam, the

33:16

former CEO of an ASX listed company. You've

33:18

been swimming around in the business world for

33:20

eons. Right. Then

33:22

we've got the man of the people. The

33:25

everyday Joe who just found

33:27

himself here, who woke

33:29

up in a team of brilliant coworkers

33:31

and wonders every day how he got

33:34

here. So I'm going to

33:36

take one for the team today and say that if it,

33:38

if one of us has to be the 20% who's

33:40

not proficient, I would rather

33:43

it be me, the honorable Michael

33:45

Thompson throwing himself on this grenade,

33:47

who's definitely not doing it so that he gets the

33:50

win out of pity. But, but if he

33:52

does get the win out of pity, he will. will

34:00

accept it and accept a 3-1 victory. Okay,

34:07

just a question on that report, Michael.

34:09

The people from the Australian HR Institute

34:11

saying that the drop-in skills has

34:14

happened and 20% of workers are

34:16

not proficient, do they include

34:18

themselves in that 20%? Well,

34:23

that's a rhetorical question, obviously. What

34:26

has I started to answer? No,

34:29

do go ahead. Don't let that stop you. No, please.

34:32

Please, please go on. Sean's

34:35

story, quick use of

34:37

the old calculator that I still have from

34:39

university days. That

34:42

$4.6 billion across 21,000

34:44

shareholders, that's over 200 grand each

34:48

that they've lost. I meant to say

34:50

that. Because there's not an applicable rule of

34:52

law. It's

34:54

a staggering amount of money and

34:57

just how disappointing it is, imagine, for those

34:59

people working on it. So,

35:01

it's not a positive story but it has to

35:03

be the favourite yarn of the week for me.

35:06

So you're saying there's no

35:08

pissy point for me here, Adam?

35:11

No, look, Michael, you gave

35:13

it everything on melodrama. I

35:15

sure did. There is nothing that I'm

35:18

a shriveled husk of a human right now,

35:20

Adam. I've given it everything I've got. Yeah,

35:24

so that's two all on the story count

35:26

today. Point, Adam, points. Oh, here we go. Here

35:29

we go. Michael, 92 points.

35:31

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Sean, 93 points.

35:38

That does make me laugh. I

35:44

wish I had a scheme

35:46

in mind but this is just how the

35:48

scores flow. It's that

35:50

last, the too much melodrama, Michael. That

35:53

last story, too much melodrama, I reckon that's where

35:55

you lost it. Well, it was just, it was

35:57

only 600 people and it was an HR institute.

36:00

report so I just don't see

36:02

it as that big or my favorite yarn

36:05

of the week. Yeah,

36:07

yeah fair enough. Well judged. Michael,

36:10

snap out of it. Okay sorry I'm fine

36:12

I'm fine. I really thought I had it

36:14

this week Sean. I really thought it was

36:16

mine. But you know what I

36:18

look forward to using the budget next week to

36:21

secure a fabulous victory. Let's

36:24

see if there's anything in it. Thank

36:26

you very much Adam. Thank you Michael. And

36:28

thank you Sean. Thanks

36:31

Michael. There we go, the

36:34

gracious winner. Make

36:36

sure you're following the podcast and please

36:38

join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, X,

36:40

TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and

36:42

that was Fear and Greed. Have a

36:44

great weekend.