0:00

Welcome to another round of Drawing

0:02

Board or Miro Board. Today we

0:04

discuss technical diagramming with systems architect

0:06

Maya. Let's go. First question. You've

0:08

spent 10 hours slogging over

0:11

a sequence diagram that should have taken

0:13

five. Drawing board or Miro board? Drawing

0:15

board. And if I'm being honest, Miro would

0:17

probably cut that time down by half. You

0:20

know, with its AI tools and ready-to-go templates.

0:22

Next, your diagrams become so bulky, it's

0:24

more complex than the solar system. But

0:27

all it takes is a few clicks

0:29

and… It's Miro. I've used those technical

0:31

shape packs way too many times. And

0:33

stuff is just digestible on its infinite

0:35

online canvas. Now, the final question.

0:37

Everyone's brought in. But you have to make

0:40

all these tasks all the way over in

0:42

Jira. But wait! It's done! Is it? Miro.

0:44

Easy with its two-way Jira sync. Easy

0:47

to plot dependencies. Everyone always knows what's

0:49

up. And she's done it! Join over

0:51

60 million people creating technical diagrams without

0:53

workflow glitches. Get your first three boards

0:56

for free at miro.com. That's

0:59

miro.com. Say goodbye to

1:01

your credit card rewards. Greedy corporate

1:03

megastores, led by Walmart and Target,

1:05

are pushing for law and Congress

1:07

to take away your hard-earned cashback

1:09

and travel points to line their

1:11

pockets. The Durbin Marshall Credit Card

1:13

Bill would enact harmful credit card

1:16

routing mandates that would end credit

1:18

card rewards as we know it.

1:20

If you love your credit card

1:22

rewards, tell your lawmakers, hands off

1:24

my rewards. Tell them to oppose

1:26

the Durbin Marshall Credit Card Bill.

1:53

Visit www.miropepperbaseball.com and fill out the entry

1:55

form. Don't miss your chance to take

1:58

your bunch to a game! Enter

2:00

today! Ensuring your baby gets

2:02

the nutrients they need to grow

2:04

and develop is a top priority.

2:07

A2 Platinum is the formula you

2:09

can trust. A2 Platinum Premium infant

2:11

formula is nutritionally complete with essential

2:13

ingredients like DHA, vitamin E, prebiotics,

2:15

and choline. Everything tiny tummies need

2:17

to build a strong foundation and

2:20

without worry of harmful chemicals. A2

2:22

Platinum is the recipient of the Clean Label

2:24

Project's Purity Award and has a flawless track

2:27

record of zero recalls. That's why millions of

2:29

parents around the world have trusted A2 for

2:31

over 10 years. Join them

2:33

and choose A2 Platinum for your

2:35

little one. Right now for a limited time

2:37

only, A2 is offering podcast

2:40

listeners an opportunity to try A2

2:42

Platinum for free. Learn how to

2:44

get your free A2 Platinum infant

2:46

formula at a2platinum.com/podcast and then head

2:49

to your local mire store to

2:51

pick it up. Go

2:53

now to the letter A,

2:55

the number two, platinum.com/podcast. Hello

2:58

everyone and welcome to Slash Film Daily. Today is

3:00

Monday, April 29, 2024

3:02

on today's episode of the show. We're going to be talking about the 2024

3:05

summer movie season at

3:07

the box office. My name is Ben Pearson.

3:09

I am an editor at slashfilm.com and I'm

3:11

joined on today's episode by SlashFilm staff writer

3:13

and box office analyst, Ryan Scott. Hey everyone,

3:16

how's it going? Ryan, it has been

3:18

a while since we've done a full blown box office

3:20

centric episode of the podcast and I'm hoping that we're

3:22

going to be able to get back to doing that

3:24

at some point next week. But straight

3:27

up some of the feature of that depends on a

3:29

situation that just popped up at your apartment, right? Yeah,

3:32

so I apologize about last week for not being

3:34

here gang. I had some car

3:37

problems and some other stuff that got in the way.

3:39

So I sincerely apologize. But this

3:41

week, it turns out we

3:43

got a notice very late on Saturday from

3:45

our apartment complex that there is like

3:47

a bunch of construction that's going to be going on

3:49

for at least three weeks and possibly as long as

3:51

three months. And my office

3:53

at my inside of my apartment is literally the closest

3:56

thing to the construction that I've done. And I'm not

3:58

going to be able to get back to that. Like

4:00

I could not be in a worse spot. Um,

4:03

Ben and I were trying to figure this out earlier to make sure

4:05

we could do it. And I couldn't even like focus on what he

4:07

was saying. It was so loud. Um, so

4:09

I've sort of come up with a reasonable enough solution,

4:11

but if you guys hear anything in the background while

4:13

I'm talking or anything like that, just,

4:15

just know that that's kind of what the deal

4:18

is and that'll be for the next few weeks,

4:20

obviously. So, you know, we'll continue to do the

4:22

box office episodes, but it just, you might have

4:24

to deal with some clanking in the background. Yeah.

4:26

Yeah. Fingers crossed it's not too disruptive and that

4:28

you retain your sanity. Right. So, yeah, yeah. Well,

4:30

you know, I'll do my best on that second part, but no problem.

4:34

Uh, okay. So in previous years,

4:36

Peter Serrata would recruit you for

4:38

a big preview episode as we

4:40

headed into the summer movie season,

4:42

partially his research for his appearances

4:44

on the summer movie wager episode over at

4:46

the film cast. Um, if you listen

4:48

to this show and you don't listen to the film

4:50

cast, I would highly recommend checking them out. They're great.

4:52

They started out as a flash film podcast years ago

4:54

and spun off into their own thing. It's been

4:57

my favorite podcast forever. Uh, I believe our,

4:59

our, um, our pal BJ, Colangelo, it was

5:01

going to be a guest on their summer

5:03

movie wager episode, which is coming up pretty

5:06

soon. So all of that to say that

5:08

the summer movie wager is primarily focused on

5:10

predicting the domestic box office numbers for summer

5:12

blockbusters, but since neither of us Ryan are,

5:15

are actively participating in that this year, I

5:17

think we're going to widen the canvas a

5:19

little bit and focus primarily on global numbers.

5:21

Yeah. Peter used to get frustrated at me

5:23

because that's where my focus is. I am

5:26

not super domestic focus. Like it is important.

5:28

Like the domestic box office is very important

5:30

because you know, if particularly

5:32

for movies, people care about

5:34

outside of China, like North America

5:36

is the most important market for films,

5:39

but like the global number

5:41

is really the, the thing. So, so it's, so

5:43

it was tough for me to focus narrowly on

5:45

domestic. But so I'll try to give the fuller

5:48

picture as we go here, but, but I, anyone

5:50

who's read my stuff probably knows that I focus

5:52

pretty heavily on like the bigger picture. Yeah.

5:55

Okay. So I think what we're going to do

5:57

is just dive into the summer and for our.

6:00

purposes we're gonna define this year's summer

6:02

movie season as starting this Friday, May

6:04

3rd, with the release of The Fall

6:06

Guy. And then we were actually going

6:08

to cut off like right around, I

6:10

think it's the first end

6:12

of August, first week of September with

6:14

Craven the Hunter. But as of this

6:16

morning, I think, or maybe late yesterday,

6:18

that movie got moved to December of

6:20

this year. So that is no longer

6:22

going to be the final film that

6:24

we're going to talk about in this

6:26

episode. So we'll catch up

6:28

to that point a little bit later on and

6:30

figure out what the, I guess, the official end of summer

6:32

movie is going to be. But Ryan,

6:34

let's kick things off here. Let's start talking about

6:36

The Fall Guy. What do you think about, I

6:39

guess, this movie and its prospects and sort of

6:41

some comps? And what are you thinking about this

6:43

film? Yeah, so The

6:45

Fall Guy is, you know, for all intents

6:47

and purposes, the first, it's usually that first

6:50

weekend of May, because that will sort of

6:52

dovetail into when kids get out of school,

6:54

whatever. So look,

6:57

I've seen The Fall Guy, I think

6:59

it's an excellent movie, genuinely, it's great.

7:01

Our own Jacob Hall is incredibly high

7:03

on it. It's peak charm,

7:05

Ryan Gosling, Emily Blunt at her

7:07

best great ensemble, very fun, good

7:09

movie. And I think for whatever you might think

7:12

about David Leach as a filmmaker, this actually feels

7:14

like an oddly personal film to him, given that

7:16

he came from the world of stuntmen. So I

7:18

think people are going to like this movie. But

7:21

however, tracking right now is kind of looking, I

7:23

think we're getting updated tracking today, but it's looking

7:25

at around 35 or 40 million. And that's on

7:28

the optimistic end. Now, that's not necessarily

7:31

terrible. But there's two things to remember.

7:34

One, it's got $125 million

7:36

budget, especially if it underperforms

7:38

and comes in below those, you

7:40

know, tracking that's not good for

7:43

universe, like, that's not what you necessarily want for

7:45

a movie that expensive. You know, and then you're

7:47

sort of relying on overseas and all these other

7:49

things. And the other thing is

7:51

to remember, this is the beginning of summer, summer.

7:53

So you know, you're looking at, you

7:56

know, okay, so what's happened in years prior,

7:58

right? Like, what are we looking at? And

8:01

truthfully, that's

8:03

way below what we were at last

8:05

year because last year we had Guardians

8:07

of the Galaxy Volume 3 opening to $118 million on

8:09

May 5th. So

8:13

that's a very different situation to

8:16

fog yourself in. And that movie ended up

8:18

laying out $845 million worldwide, $358 million domestic.

8:22

So yeah, I mean, Fall Guy,

8:24

even under the best of circumstances, can't

8:27

do that. Yeah, it's interesting that Universal

8:29

is positioning this as sort of like

8:31

the official summer kickoff movie, which is

8:33

like typically what, you know,

8:35

Marvel movie has served that function for a long

8:37

time, like many, many years now. I

8:40

guess barring some of the pandemic stuff that happened like

8:42

2020, 2021, whatever. I

8:46

don't know if you are on like Universal's

8:48

press list, Ryan, but my inbox is just

8:50

like, it feels like constantly being filled with,

8:52

hey, here's a new featurette for the Fall

8:54

Guy. Like it honestly feels like the

8:57

studio is treating it as if it is

8:59

on the same level as a Marvel movie.

9:01

And I think, I mean,

9:03

just the fact that they brought it to South

9:05

by Southwest, and it had, you know, sort of

9:08

a raucous reception there. They clearly are

9:10

high on this movie, the studio, and they

9:12

know that they have a genuine crowd pleaser

9:15

on their hands. So I'm wondering what you

9:17

think about the idea of this movie, maybe

9:19

opening slightly below expectations, but having

9:21

potentially such a good word of mouth that

9:23

it becomes like the movie of the summer,

9:25

just almost by default, given the rest of

9:27

stuff that we're going to be talking about

9:29

here. That is sincerely

9:31

my hope. It's a good movie. Like it

9:34

is a good movie. And like, yes,

9:36

it is technically a franchise movie because the Fall Guy

9:38

is a TV show. But I talked about this in

9:40

my box office preview piece for it that like, as

9:43

far as the general public is concerned, particularly younger people, they don't

9:45

even know what the Fall Guy is. They have no idea that

9:47

it's based on a TV show, and they're not advertising it that

9:49

it's based on a TV show. So

9:52

it's really playing like an original

9:54

action blockbuster for the general public

9:56

that is predicated on, you

9:58

know, hey, you like Ryan Guy. Gosling and Emily Blunt

10:00

and action movies, then you will like to go

10:02

see this movie. So my sincere hope

10:05

is that yeah, people go see it, people love it,

10:07

people talk about it, it can lag out. We'll

10:12

talk about more why that might get tricky here in a

10:14

bit. But you know, that's the hope. I

10:17

think even before the pandemic, you would have these movies

10:20

that were really well received that would have a tough

10:22

time doing that. I think of Booksmart as a very

10:24

classic example of that, this movie that everyone seemed to

10:26

love that just could not

10:28

find you know, it's theatrical audience.

10:31

And so, you know, this is

10:33

obviously a bigger movie. But you know, we'll

10:35

see. I certainly don't want

10:37

to be negative, if

10:39

I'm wrong. And we've seen examples of tracking

10:41

being way off. Even Godzilla X Kong recently,

10:43

you know, tracking was way below when it

10:45

ended up doing so, you

10:47

know, here's hoping, but no matter what, it's not getting

10:49

to that 118 million we kicked off

10:51

the summer with last year. And

10:54

so we're already kind of off to a slightly

10:56

slower start. And just so people understand, part of

10:59

the reason I'm a little like, Oh, no, is that

11:01

the first third of the year, ticket

11:03

sales were down 21% compared to 2023. And we were

11:06

still not near, you know, pre pandemic levels last

11:09

year. So you know, the box office is in

11:11

desperate need of some help here. Yeah, I think,

11:13

you know, we you and I were talking before

11:15

we started recording about how that that kind of

11:17

puts this this whole summer in like an unfair

11:20

position of trying to kind of make up some

11:22

of that ground that the first part of the

11:24

year lost. And it's like, that's a tough ask

11:26

for any movie summer, but especially this movie summer,

11:29

which is like plagued with some of the delays.

11:31

I mean, we're just talking about that with Craven

11:33

that happened. And then also, you know, just the

11:35

the overall slate is maybe not as strong

11:38

as it could have been given some of the

11:41

the strikes and you know, the after effects of

11:43

the strikes last year. So 100%. But like one thing

11:45

that might

11:47

help here, and I don't want to talk

11:49

too much about this, but there is that

11:51

Star Wars Episode One, the Phantom Menace rerelease

11:53

on the same weekend. And there

11:55

is like palpable excitement for that from younger

11:58

folks who grew up as prequel fans. And

12:00

I think we could be looking at a situation like you

12:02

know where we had the 1997 Re-releases

12:05

though. I'm not saying it's gonna make as much

12:07

money as those did but it looks like that

12:09

could actually goose the Goose the

12:11

box office for a solid, you know Anywhere

12:14

between seven days and 13 days depending on

12:16

how long Disney keeps it in theaters. So

12:18

that could be helpful. Okay Just

12:21

to speak to what I was talking about earlier Ryan one

12:23

more piece of proof here Literally as we were

12:25

discussing, you know one minute ago I

12:28

just got another email from Universal saying Ryan

12:30

Gosling surprises fans that the fall guy stunt

12:33

tackular pre-show at Universal Studios Hollywood so like

12:35

even the theme parks are getting in on

12:38

Twitter this weekend. Yeah people were like cuz him

12:40

and David Leech showed up and and yeah,

12:44

I mean look I I Give nothing

12:46

but credit to Universal for one making a great

12:48

movie Like I genuinely think it's great movie and

12:50

I think people are gonna love it and to

12:52

like really putting their their weight behind They're

12:55

giving it an honest shot. So I have nothing

12:57

but respect. Yeah fingers crossed I think I'm gonna

12:59

see it on Wednesday night. They're doing like a little

13:01

preview screening in my area So check your local listings

13:04

You may not have to wait until Thursday to check

13:06

it out if you're looking forward to it as much

13:08

as I am Tarot Ryan

13:10

that's a horror movie that as far as

13:12

I know is still slated for this Friday

13:14

as well It was kind of like moving

13:16

it shuffling around the release calendar a little

13:18

bit I think you and I might be

13:21

looking at slightly different Release

13:23

calendar sources websites and stuff like that. So

13:25

tell me if I say anything No, Tara,

13:27

oh match up with what arrow is

13:30

currently still so far as I can

13:32

tell due to hit theaters on May

13:36

10th and I should put it my oh, it's

13:38

made tense. Okay. All right. Yeah, so is it

13:40

made tense? I'm sorry Yeah, that's what I'm here.

13:42

Let me double-check is that movie has moved a

13:44

couple of times Yeah, it's which I don't know

13:46

the last I saw that it was like it

13:48

was made tense and it got pushed back to

13:50

May 3rd But I'm sitting here thinking about it

13:52

now and that's this week and I just haven't

13:54

really seen I mean talking about Universal doing a

13:56

great Marketing push with ball guy Sony's latest trailer

13:58

seems to indicate me Wow. Okay. I

14:01

guess it is. Well, all right.

14:03

So look, I mean, if it is, here's

14:05

my thing, May 3rd, May 10th. It

14:08

hardly matters because the, the

14:10

advertising for it has just been so

14:12

minimal. Yeah. Um, I, I

14:14

mean, I don't know if Sony's just dumping

14:16

what they're like, maybe they're, they

14:18

don't think they're, maybe they're not confident in the

14:20

movie, but I

14:24

can't imagine it doing more than a

14:26

handful of million dollars. You

14:28

know, like, like it just, it just doesn't, it

14:30

just doesn't have any juice. It's not going to be like

14:32

a black phone situation, you know, like that. So I don't

14:35

know. We need to dwell on that, but that's not really

14:37

going to be super helpful. I don't think. Yeah.

14:39

All right. So the next big one is kingdom of

14:41

the planet of the Apes, which is May 10th,

14:43

I believe. Um, so

14:46

yeah, what are you thinking about this one

14:48

in terms, especially in terms of like comps

14:50

with the previous movies? And, and that was,

14:52

you know, those films were a while ago

14:54

now that, that most recent trilogy, it's been

14:57

like several years. Um, and so now we're

14:59

heading back into April and I wonder what

15:01

you think about this movie's financial prospects. Well,

15:03

Ben, I think this movie is going to

15:05

make $5 billion because I think it looks

15:08

amazing. Um, you know,

15:10

the dream is slightly biased, right? I

15:12

do seem I can't, I was even

15:14

avoiding the most recent trailer for this movie

15:16

and it's played in front of the last couple of

15:18

movies I've seen. And I get like goosebumps thinking about

15:20

the trailer. Like I am so in on this movie.

15:22

I can't even begin to tell you, but, but. Um,

15:26

I, I do think it's

15:29

going to, it has the potential

15:31

to play like rise of the planet

15:33

of the apes or war for the planet of the apes.

15:35

And just to give people some context rise

15:38

of the planet of the apes in 2011, open to $54

15:41

million, uh, ended up making 176 domestic 305 international 481

15:43

worldwide. Now

15:50

what the industry is hoping for is that

15:52

this ends up playing more like dawn of the

15:54

planet of the apes, um, which was one of

15:57

the biggest breakouts equals of all time. So as

15:59

I mentioned, rise. you know, made 481 worldwide, Dawn

16:01

ended up making 710 million worldwide. And that was

16:03

a huge international

16:08

gross, 502 million. So it

16:10

only made like 30% of its money domestically.

16:12

But, you know,

16:14

we'll see. I mean, that you could make an

16:16

argument that Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is

16:18

up there with like, the

16:21

Dark Knight as far as like one of

16:23

the biggest jumps from predecessor to sequel as

16:25

far as like quality reception money goes. So

16:28

I don't think that we can look at this as

16:30

like a Dawn of the Planet of the Apes unless

16:32

things go insanely well. But

16:35

I do think somewhere between that

16:37

$405 million range is possible. I've

16:40

seen early tracking indicating

16:42

somewhere in a $50 million-ish

16:44

opening weekend range, which would be

16:46

totally fine. I imagine Disney

16:48

would be happy with that. But, you know, as

16:50

we're talking about, like these movies might

16:53

make enough money individually to be

16:55

successes. But like, the

16:57

industry at large is like hoping for something to

16:59

lift, you know, like

17:01

for a rising tide to lift all boats. And,

17:04

you know, I just don't think this movie is

17:06

going to do that. But I think it can

17:08

do enough to justify its own existence. For

17:11

sure. I think that seeing

17:14

a ton of people talking about, you know, luckily,

17:16

like Disney's and Smart, they've got all those the

17:18

most recent Apes trilogy, like on the home tiles

17:20

of Hulu and Disney Plus, like they're trying to

17:22

get people to, you know, invest in

17:25

checking this thing out. So I think if word of

17:27

I would probably should be getting critical word of mouth

17:29

sometime in the next week or so. And

17:33

I imagine if it's as good as it

17:35

looks, then, you know, it could that this

17:37

one I could see lagging out. Okay,

17:40

so as we're going through here, Ryan, I would love it if

17:42

you could flag these movies as we're going

17:44

and just say like, Yeah, I think this is going

17:46

to be like a big one, like one of the

17:48

biggest movies of the summer, we don't have to come

17:50

up with like an official, you know, here are the

17:53

10 movies that we think might break out or whatever.

17:55

But just like along the way as we're in conversation.

17:57

Yeah, so I think I think if this one goes

17:59

very well, like if this goes at the top

18:01

end of how well it could go, this could be

18:03

in that like top 10. You

18:05

know, well, it's top 10 for sure, because it's

18:07

a summer, but like, you know, could could could

18:09

be one of those ones that breaks out. The

18:11

all guy I'm less optimistic about just because I've

18:13

stopped giving faith to the movie going public. Like,

18:17

like monkey man really bummed me out. Like that was one

18:19

that like, you know, an Abigail a little more recently in

18:22

Ministry of Ungenerably Warfare, like some of these movies that

18:24

are good movies that just have not caught on like

18:26

I'm starting, you know, so I think that you're almost

18:29

reliant on that franchise thing at this point. Yeah. Okay,

18:31

so the next weekend is May 17. And

18:33

there's by my count, four releases that

18:36

that could be, you know, interesting to

18:38

talk about here so that you've got

18:40

John Krasinski is starring Ryan Reynolds, you've

18:42

got Back to Black, the Amy Winehouse

18:44

biopic, you've got the Strangers chapter one

18:46

directed by Renny Harlan. And then I

18:48

saw the TV glow, which is by

18:50

Jane Schoenbrunn, who directed a really fascinating

18:52

film called We're All Going to the

18:54

World's Fair a couple years ago. I

18:57

saw the TV glow is definitely going to be, I mean,

18:59

kind of like a drop in the bucket, like barely worth

19:01

talking about financial wise, it's a it's a much smaller movie

19:03

than a lot of the stuff that we're going to be

19:05

talking about on the rest of the episode. But

19:08

I did want to shout that out because A,

19:10

it has a great trailer, B Schoenbrunn's most

19:12

recent movie was just really fascinating. And C,

19:14

I just hope you know, some people who

19:16

care about stuff beyond blockbusters seek this one

19:18

out. So we don't even really have to

19:20

get into its prospects or anything. I just

19:22

wanted to mention it here. But I'm

19:25

curious what you think about the other three if Back

19:27

to Black and Strangers chapter one, I guess let's talk

19:29

about his first. This

19:31

one's an interesting case. John

19:33

Krasinski has become an oddly popular

19:36

filmmaker, you know, the Quiet Place

19:38

movies did exceedingly well. But

19:40

this is a more expensive, family

19:43

friendly non franchise film.

19:47

And I'm truly non animated,

19:49

I am struggling to find a comp

19:51

for this. Maybe the Sonic

19:53

the Hedgehog movies, but but that is a franchise

19:55

movie. But I think that like the idea of

19:58

like, Live action. Coupled

20:00

with some Cg I animation that

20:02

is aimed at like family audiences,

20:04

Evening Sonic is maybe the closest.

20:07

And you know, those movies are somewhat in the

20:10

four hundred million dollar range, you know, give or

20:12

take. So I think that. You.

20:14

Know that may be one of

20:16

our better comps your arm and

20:18

the current tracking for if is

20:20

good. I think the most recent

20:22

numbers as our forty issue opening

20:24

weekend which. You. Know for a movie

20:27

with no. Franchise. Hook would

20:29

be great and then if word of mouth

20:31

is good and you know you can cut

20:33

tap into lot like Kung Fu Panda Puss

20:35

in Boots The Last Wish Elemental audience that

20:38

can help a family friend friendly family friendly

20:40

movie leg out even with a. Small.

20:43

Ish debut and I think

20:45

that could. Be. Good. You know

20:47

that would be good news for this movie. that

20:49

would be this working. On luckily paranoia,

20:51

Paramount is very committed a theatrical. They're going to

20:53

keep the thing in theater for a while. They're

20:55

not gonna rush to V O D. Ah,

20:59

But. This is a bit of an unknown for me the summer

21:01

you know it could. You. Know could

21:03

do like. One. Fifty worldwide

21:05

of things go bad. It could do.

21:08

Five. Hundred will lot of things go great.

21:10

It's one of those ones where there's like a

21:12

frustrating, the huge range of work in fall. Yeah,

21:15

no wonder about the Ryan Reynolds of at all

21:17

to could like. Obviously he's super popular for the

21:19

Deadpool stuff, but like most, a movie at the

21:22

Adam project on Netflix that was apparently like a

21:24

big deal when that came out. you know if

21:26

you're to believe the numbers that Netflix released on

21:28

that? So it seems like you know people just

21:30

like him across the board? he's one of those

21:33

one of the guys that like You know that

21:35

I think a lot of people who are like

21:37

actually a deeply embedded in the movie community and

21:39

care a lot about films may have stronger opinions

21:41

on Ryan Reynolds than just the average moog over,

21:44

but the average mood get. movie or seem

21:46

to really enjoy himself you know whether that

21:48

translates into back up a success i guess

21:50

will activate safer yeah that that's that's the

21:52

thing and i think that certainly helps because

21:54

you know he was a factor in getting

21:56

detective pt to to you know what what

21:58

it got too My

22:01

question here is of course, you know, the budget

22:03

like which I'm not super sure what they spent

22:05

on it yet. I'm

22:08

praying against all hope that it was under

22:10

$100 million. I

22:12

don't know, but I, you

22:15

know, I'd love it at like $75 million,

22:17

but I'm worried it's more than that. Okay,

22:20

let's talk about Stranger Chapter One.

22:22

What do you think about this one? It's

22:25

another one of those like unknowns. Like

22:27

I don't think the Stranger's is like

22:29

a strong enough franchise. Like I don't

22:32

think people are like,

22:34

oh wow, the Strang—you know what I mean? Like

22:36

I don't know that that's what's going to do

22:38

it. And like the original Stranger's was a solid

22:41

hit. Like it's, you

22:44

know, there's a reason Lionsgate's doing this. It made

22:46

$82 worldwide against a $9 million budget. And

22:49

you know, I think people need to

22:51

understand that Lionsgate made three of these movies back

22:54

to back to back. All three

22:56

of them have already been filmed. So they're

22:58

committed to like Stranger Chapter One, Stranger Chapter

23:00

Two, Stranger Chapter Three. So I would guess

23:02

that they were able to get the budget

23:04

down like per movie by doing all three

23:06

of them like that, which

23:08

helps. So you know, you have a trilogy at the end of

23:10

the day, but if the first one doesn't work, it hardly matters.

23:16

I think your – this

23:18

working extremely well would be like Black

23:20

phone numbers, right? You know, 161 worldwide,

23:23

as far

23:27

as like your opening goes, Black phone

23:29

opened to 23 million domestic, ended up

23:31

at 90. That would be this working

23:33

really, really well. You

23:36

know, if it doesn't do that, you

23:39

know, I think this could be one of those movies

23:41

that, you know, maybe like does Thanksgiving numbers like 42

23:44

worldwide, you know, like that would be

23:46

this not working very well. Yeah, I

23:48

was trying to look ahead to like

23:50

all of the horror, the mainstream sort

23:52

of blockbuster-ish horror movies that we have

23:54

coming up this summer. So you've got

23:56

Tarot, you've got this. I don't

23:59

necessarily want to like – spoil the

24:01

rest of our conversation but there's only a few

24:03

more like the Watchers is one, Quiet

24:05

Place Day one is kind of on the edge of

24:07

like horror. Quiet Place Day one is definitely gonna play

24:10

for that horror crowd so like yeah that's yeah and

24:12

like I

24:14

mean there's one other one that I want to

24:16

save and like I don't I guess he would

24:18

I guess he could call alien Romulus so oh

24:20

for sure that's a thing for the horror crowd

24:22

like for sure so but like really beyond that

24:24

there's not much you know so I wonder if

24:27

like I don't know horror

24:29

has just been such a big talking point over the past

24:31

couple years where people have realized like hey this is a

24:33

really consistent thing that people can make money on so I

24:36

wonder like if the Strangers Chapter 1

24:38

is gonna have more that like directive

24:41

video vibe to it you know where

24:43

it just kind of like ultimately becomes like a

24:45

forgotten kind of thing or if this is something that

24:47

the horror community is really gonna latch on to

24:49

so I guess well I think this one could be

24:51

very review dependent right like like if the buzz is

24:54

good I mean like horror is one of the few

24:56

genres that's a little bit like critic-proof in some ways

24:58

like people want to see something bad enough they're gonna

25:00

go but it

25:02

also like sometimes doesn't benefit

25:05

like Abigail didn't benefit from

25:07

which is disappointing but it happens yeah so

25:09

but if this one like no it's you

25:11

know really good or whatever like we'll see

25:13

I don't know I but I I

25:16

think it's all it works as good counter programming on

25:18

this weekend it has enough space

25:20

from some of the other big movies big genre

25:22

movies we'll be talking about so it can own

25:24

a few weeks which is good yeah but

25:27

yeah then Back to Black is the other I've written a

25:29

little bit about that that movies off to a decent start

25:31

overseas you know it

25:33

opened in like the UK and Ireland and did well I wrote

25:35

a piece about that you

25:38

know I think like you know this working is

25:41

sort of like maybe Rocket Man numbers

25:45

you know that's because I don't think this is

25:47

not Bohemian Rhapsody it's not even Elvis you

25:50

know it's not gonna do that but I think like

25:52

Rocket Man you know getting the 195 worldwide 25 million

25:54

dollar opening

25:57

40 million dollar budget like that that would be

25:59

this work Yeah, maybe 200 on

26:01

the top end of things for this one. Yeah, and that would

26:03

be at the very top end I would think so But

26:06

you know on that weekend. I don't know if it

26:08

does 25. I think maybe it does 1015

26:12

and maybe it legs out, but I also think the

26:15

international numbers could be higher on that one. So You

26:18

know, we'll see if I think if that one gets to a

26:20

hundred million worldwide I

26:23

think focus would be thrilled, you know, and that

26:25

would be like if that gets to a hundred

26:27

but we'll see Yeah. All right. So Furiosa a

26:29

Mad Max saga is the next one that I'm

26:31

very interested in personally. I mean

26:35

what what can you say about what

26:38

this movie might do in comparison to Fury

26:41

Road because Fury Road is a movie

26:43

that has like an excellent reputation has

26:45

all these Oscar nominations But maybe is

26:47

not quite the you know full-throated hit

26:49

that some people might Have

26:52

sort of ascribed it to being because of

26:54

its cultural reputation So how did

26:56

remind us how Fury Road did and then what

26:58

do you think about this one? You explained that

27:01

better than I could have like yeah Fury Road

27:03

has this insane reputation of 10 Oscar nominations I

27:05

think what five or six wins You

27:09

know, maybe one of the best teaser

27:11

trailers of all time one of the most

27:13

highly regarded action movies of all time Quite

27:16

possibly the most roundly beloved Mainstream

27:19

blockbuster the last 10 years like it,

27:22

you know, it's its reputation is such

27:25

But we're talking about a movie that had a hundred

27:28

and fifty million dollar budget a huge marketing spend it

27:30

made 379 million dollars

27:32

worldwide under most circumstances that

27:34

is not a success Why

27:37

the reason we haven't gotten the edge of tomorrow

27:39

too is because it did similar numbers You

27:42

know like but this movie

27:44

got 10 Academy Award nominations and made a ton

27:46

of money after work after the fact That's

27:48

why so

27:52

But but Furiosa I can tell you even from looking

27:54

at the trailers. It's probably not

27:56

gonna end up in that same. I

27:59

don't need getting 10 Academy Award nominations. You

28:01

know what I mean? Like I just something even just

28:03

from that trailer tells me I don't think we're in

28:05

that territory again. Um, and

28:07

I also think it's more expensive. My

28:10

understanding is that it's closer to 200. Wow.

28:13

Are you serious? I was going to say part

28:15

of the reason that Fury Road, I imagine that

28:17

budget would have been sort of inflated was because

28:19

that movie went through such a long development process

28:21

that like, you know, anytime a movie sits in

28:24

development or goes through a bunch of different versions

28:26

and stuff like that on its way to the

28:28

big screen, that money just adds up and that

28:30

gets dumped into its final budget total. And that

28:32

can kind of sometimes make movies seem more

28:35

expensive than it actually would have been. So I would

28:37

have thought that maybe Furiosa could have comparatively

28:40

kept the price down a little bit

28:42

compared to Fury Road, but it sounds like

28:44

that's not the case. So that's kind of a

28:46

bummer. No, I'm not positive. The official budget has

28:48

not been reported, but I've seen

28:50

and heard, I can't

28:53

say much, but

28:56

it has been suggested to me that the budget

28:58

is in the

29:00

$200 million range. Now, that might be also, now one

29:02

thing that you need to keep in mind, that might

29:05

be before tax incentives and stuff. And then after that

29:07

kicks in, that gets you down. Like

29:09

that's why the Godzilla X Kong budget came down to like

29:11

135. So like, who

29:13

knows? Maybe I'm hoping that's what's

29:16

going on here. We'll see. But

29:19

yeah, I mean, like, so I think

29:21

obviously Warner Brothers made this movie with the

29:23

hope that this could play like

29:25

a breakout sequel. Like this could almost

29:28

be like Avatar 2 type thing, right?

29:30

Where people have waited so long to

29:32

see the sequel or prequel,

29:34

whatever to Fury Road, that like it

29:36

can do bigger numbers than the original

29:38

did. And I think that like it

29:41

is important. I know we don't want to like

29:43

talk over each other here, but like the

29:45

Garfield movie also comes out this weekend. That

29:47

is completely playing for a different audience. So,

29:50

you know, you're not running

29:52

over anything there and you know, if

29:54

and the strangers like those aren't playing

29:56

for the same audience. So this would

29:58

be the first like legitimate. blockbuster

30:01

in two weeks because you know so Kingdom of the

30:03

Planet of the Apes can own that like

30:06

sort of corridor for a couple of

30:08

weekends and you know then Furiosi comes

30:10

along. I think reception is going to be huge here. I

30:13

forget which fan isn't this playing at a big film

30:16

festival here before its

30:18

release? Am I missing? Interesting it might

30:21

be. Maybe it is maybe it isn't but I thought I'd

30:24

heard that but so look we'll see. This

30:26

one I'm a little I'm

30:28

not so sure like I

30:32

you know it's one of

30:35

those ones where I'm a little like

30:37

the one part of me there's

30:40

the part of me like that thinks of this

30:42

like I did Top Gun Maverick before it came

30:44

out where I'm like I just don't know if

30:46

anyone wants like yeah I'm not sure and then

30:48

that movie made 1.5 billion dollars.

30:50

So you know like I'm not the best prognosticator

30:52

and I say that every once in a while

30:54

as I sort of muse my way through some

30:56

of these things. Like

31:00

can it do Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning

31:02

part one numbers? You know can it

31:04

be that this summer? Can

31:06

it do you know 567 worldwide?

31:10

Can it open to 54 domestic? You know

31:12

can it do 172 domestic by the end

31:14

of its run? I think so if things

31:16

go very well. What is

31:18

this not going well? You

31:21

know something in like The Hunger

31:23

Games ballad of songs of songbirds and snakes right?

31:25

Like that might be this not going well. You

31:28

know 337 worldwide

31:31

you know 44 million dollar opening and then kind

31:33

of tumbles from there like that would

31:35

be this on the low end. If

31:37

it goes any lower than that I would

31:39

be fearful but

31:41

I don't think that's going to happen. So

31:44

I think your absolute floor would be like 300

31:46

worldwide like if

31:48

this just somehow people just don't show up

31:50

don't care. Very top

31:52

end would be like 600 worldwide in

31:55

my eyes. Okay all

31:57

right what about the Garfield movie? I

32:00

mean, obviously I think like your big hope

32:02

of hope there is that you have Chris

32:04

Pratt and another animated movie about a icon.

32:06

So you know, like, Sony's like,

32:08

let's get a billion dollar hit guys. But like,

32:10

that's obviously not what's going to happen. It's not

32:12

going to do Mario Brothers movie numbers. But

32:16

animated movies have legged out. You know,

32:19

we've seen, you know, Kung Fu Panda 4. We've

32:21

seen Puts and Boots The Last Wish

32:23

like open to relatively small numbers, but like

32:25

leg out in a big way. And

32:28

ended up making about $300 million worldwide

32:30

after a very small opening.

32:33

So you know, Garfield

32:35

could be this really helpful movie this

32:38

summer where maybe it doesn't

32:40

open huge on May 24th, but it

32:42

probably is going to leg out. It's

32:44

got a little bit of competition in

32:46

that like, if is probably playing for

32:48

the same market. But I

32:51

think in terms of strictly family friendly

32:53

animated movies go that could be in

32:55

a good spot. And

32:58

I think there's an outside shot

33:00

that like Garfield ends up opening

33:02

higher than Furiosa. You

33:05

know, and I think that even happened

33:07

like when Mad Max came out. What was

33:09

it? Yeah, I think it was Pitch Perfect

33:11

2 opened that same weekend and opened higher

33:13

than Mad Max. Wow, I did

33:15

not remember that. Yeah, and nobody does right? Like,

33:17

but you know, so like, I think we could be

33:20

in a similar situation here. It's

33:22

interesting because like, you've got Inside Out 2

33:24

coming up in the middle of June. We'll

33:26

get to that in a second. But that

33:28

seems like the, you know, the family friendly,

33:30

like bring your kids to the movies kind

33:33

of thing on paper. But then when you

33:35

think about it for a second, like Inside

33:37

Out 2 is more about like this grown

33:39

up female protagonist.

33:41

And then you've got, yes, the same, you

33:43

know, or some of the same and

33:46

a new cast of emotions and things like that. What

33:48

I'm trying to say is like, that movie is

33:50

Pixar's actual big play this

33:53

year. But it seems like it could play

33:55

to a slightly older crowd than like the,

33:57

you know, let's bring my five year old

33:59

to the movies. kind of thing, which

34:01

I think Garfield would definitely benefit

34:04

from that kind of approach or whatever, like

34:06

it's going to be the beneficiary of that

34:08

kind of thinking. And

34:10

then Despicable Me 4 doesn't come

34:12

out until early July. So

34:14

like maybe Garfield has like essentially the

34:17

entire month of June to capture that

34:20

audience before Despicable

34:23

Me 4 comes along and potentially like eats up

34:25

lunch. But I don't know, I was wondering how

34:27

much of a threat you thought inside out who

34:30

might be. Pixar

34:32

is tricky right now because like, I mean,

34:34

I think after Elemental opened last year, I

34:36

was like ready to be

34:38

like, well, Pixar might be done as a

34:41

theatrical brand, you know, like I because it

34:43

opened, you

34:45

know, bad, like there's no getting around

34:47

it. Elemental and

34:50

you know, Pixar had a bad couple of years

34:52

of putting stuff direct to Disney Plus and Bob

34:54

Iger even addressed that as a mistake. But Inside

34:56

Out a $200 million are elemental, I'm sorry,

34:58

Elemental a $200 million, you

35:01

know, animated movie only opened at $29 million. But

35:04

it legged out to $154 million domestic and

35:06

ended up making $496 worldwide. And that shows

35:08

you in the pandemic era how leggy these

35:10

animated movies can be. So

35:12

I think Inside Out too, you know,

35:15

Inside Out made a ridiculous amount of

35:17

money. Like this is like that pre

35:19

pandemic, you know,

35:22

where Pixar was one of the house of

35:24

ideas where you could take a high concept

35:26

original idea and it could make $858 million

35:28

worldwide. And that's what

35:31

Inside Out did. That's what Pixar was

35:34

capable of. Post

35:36

pandemic, you know, we

35:38

haven't had a lot of you

35:41

know, sequels from them to sort of see what

35:43

they can do. Like we had lightyear, which was

35:45

a spin off and that flamed out badly. Yeah.

35:48

So I don't think Inside Out two is going

35:50

to be subject to that.

35:52

But I think that to

35:55

think that it would also do $858 million worldwide at this point is a pipe

35:59

dream. But I do think

36:01

it could do elemental numbers. I do think it

36:03

could potentially get to that 500 million

36:06

worldwide area and maybe like $30

36:08

million opening or something. I

36:11

would say that it probably does higher than that because it's

36:13

not dealing with as much direct competition. So

36:15

I think that, yes, that's going to get in the

36:17

way of Garfield a little bit, but your really young

36:19

kids can go to Garfield. Your super young kids maybe

36:21

not inside out too. So that's a little bit –

36:24

it is an odd situation for sure. Okay,

36:26

so let's try to burn through June here. We've

36:28

got a Bad Boys Ride or Die on June

36:30

7th. I think Bad

36:32

Boys for Life was the highest-grossing

36:34

movie of 2020, is that correct?

36:37

It was because it

36:39

was the last big movie – big,

36:41

big movie to open in theaters before the pandemic.

36:43

There were other movies, but yeah,

36:45

it ended up making $426 million worldwide, $62

36:47

million opening. I

36:52

do think that if things go

36:54

well, this movie

36:56

could do almost identical numbers. That's kind of what

36:59

I'm kind of predicting. Sort

37:02

of like Ghostbusters Afterlife and Ghostbusters Frozen

37:04

Empire did almost

37:06

dollar for dollar the same. I think

37:09

we could be looking at that same situation here.

37:12

Assuming the reviews are good, which I think

37:14

is – because people really liked Bad Boys

37:16

for Life. And I think

37:18

that could be the similar situation here. All

37:21

right, what do you think about The Watchers, which

37:23

also opens on June 7th? This is M. Night

37:25

Shyamalan's daughter directing the movie about Dakota Fanning as

37:27

an artist. The artist who goes out and gets

37:29

trapped in the Irish forest, and you've probably seen

37:31

the trailers by now, but what do you think

37:33

about this one? This is one I'm

37:35

actually a little high on. I

37:37

think that on

37:40

your very optimistic end,

37:42

this could be like the flat – I'm

37:45

sorry, a smile. This

37:47

could be one of those breakout debut

37:51

horror movies with a really good hook.

37:53

You've got Shyamalan's name in there. So,

37:55

Smile just for context did. 22 million

37:57

opening weekend ended up $105 million. Basically

38:01

106 domestic and 217 worldwide. That

38:05

would be the Watchers really

38:07

working. I

38:09

think even if it does 100 worldwide, Warner

38:11

Bros. would be stoked. And

38:14

I think that'll play well against Bad Boys

38:16

Ride or Die. It's

38:18

the only game in town since

38:20

The Strangers Chapter 1, which I think has

38:22

an outside shot of not performing particularly well.

38:24

So people could be ready for a big good horror

38:26

movie with a twist and all that stuff. So I

38:29

think that one I think could be a

38:31

sleeper hit this summer. The director's

38:33

name is Ishawna Knight Shyamalan. So I want to put

38:35

some respect on her name. I just called her M.

38:37

Night Shyamalan's daughter before. But her

38:39

actual name deserves to be spoken. We should

38:41

indeed put some respect on her name. Yeah,

38:43

because I will say that trailer looks awesome.

38:45

So I'm into it. Okay, so we talked

38:47

about Inside Out 2. That's June

38:50

14th. June 21st, I

38:52

have The Bike Riders down, the movie

38:54

that Tom Hardy is in, Austin

38:56

Butler is in. Do you have

38:58

this one for that date on your

39:00

calendar still? I do. And this

39:02

is a weird situation because this was originally supposed to

39:04

be like a Disney release. And

39:07

they just basically were like, we don't

39:09

want it. And Focus

39:12

picked it up. And this is like what Focus does.

39:16

But I think its prospects

39:18

are limited. This is not... I

39:21

just don't see this being like

39:23

a hundred million dollar movie worldwide. Like

39:25

I just... I see this

39:27

being more... Boy,

39:30

like I'm struggling to, you

39:32

know, look at like a... I mean, I

39:34

don't want to be too down on it, but I

39:37

fear this might not perform particularly

39:39

well. Yeah. Do you

39:41

know, is there a way for you to look up Jeff Nichols and

39:43

like the most money that a

39:46

movie of his has ever made? Indeed I can, sir. So

39:49

Jeff Nichols is the guy behind movies like

39:52

Take Shelter and Midnight Special and I'm reading

39:54

his mud. Real quickly, for anyone

39:56

that has not watched Midnight Special, I implore

39:58

you to go watch Night Special. I

40:00

believe it is streaming on Macs right now. Great

40:04

movie. But yeah, he doesn't make movies

40:06

that make a lot of money. Yeah.

40:08

He's an excellent director. And I love

40:10

his movies. But like, like you said,

40:13

they're, they're just not necessarily like traditional

40:15

blockbuster material. Jeff Nichols, highest grossing movie

40:17

is mud with $31.5 million worldwide. Wow.

40:21

Okay. Yeah. So I

40:24

would rather not explain to you how much take

40:26

shelter or midnight special made because it depresses me.

40:28

But yeah, yeah. But

40:30

but but yeah, so so the bike

40:32

riders, I think is certainly the most

40:34

commercial movie that he's made. If

40:38

you know, I think Austin Butler is a legitimate

40:40

movie star. Tom Hardy is absolutely

40:43

has been a movie star for a long time. Jodie

40:45

Comer, I believe is is right there as well

40:47

as far as like, you know, New Hollywood, you

40:50

know, potential a listers go but none

40:53

of them like Austin Butler actually a bit at this

40:55

point is cementing himself as a box office draw. But

40:59

I don't know. I think it's a weird

41:01

week. I think it's like, where that's like

41:03

the one weekend this summer where we just

41:05

don't have something huge opening. So

41:07

it might benefit from that. But I mean,

41:10

10 million opening weekend would

41:12

probably be amazing. Yeah. Like, so we're not

41:14

looking at it as like a dynamic

41:18

changer or anything like we are not. So

41:20

okay. So what do you think about Horizon

41:22

and American Saga chapter one, Kevin Costner's new

41:24

Western, we're going to talk about both parts

41:26

here over the course of the next couple

41:28

months as we get into them. But

41:31

what do you think about the prospects of

41:34

this big sprawling Western that he's cooked up?

41:36

I am concerned that this could be the

41:38

biggest bomb of the year. Really? I was

41:40

just thinking like, man, Yellowstone is like such

41:42

a big deal. This seems like this is the

41:44

one that's going to get all the dads out

41:46

of the house. And people are going to be

41:48

like, Yeah, Kevin Costner, that was my America. But

41:50

I think the budget for each of these movies

41:52

is in like the hundred million dollar range. I

41:56

mean, I think they're really expensive movies.

41:58

Like, so And my

42:01

understanding is that Kevin Costner put most

42:03

of his own money into this and

42:05

like partnered with Warner

42:08

Brothers for like distribution and stuff. Yeah, that's

42:10

right. Yeah, so it looks like The

42:13

budget was a hundred million for chapter one and

42:15

two, I guess Those

42:18

are the only ones that have been completed right now.

42:20

No, it wasn't it have been completed Okay, so that

42:22

that gives me a little okay, so I did see

42:24

that hundred million dollar number, but that's for two movies

42:26

Okay, I feel slightly better about that

42:30

having been said westerns are

42:33

not something that get made all that

42:35

often on the scale anymore and They

42:39

don't you know, it's been a while since one

42:41

broke out big. Um, I Just

42:44

don't know I I I am hope

42:46

because I saw a bunch of footage at cinema con

42:48

I think it looks Incredible.

42:51

I think it looks great But

42:53

I think as we're gonna talk about

42:55

here in a second, it's going right up against a quiet place day

42:57

one And I think you know

42:59

those quiet place movies both made a bunch of money I

43:03

think that trailer plays really well. It's definitely gonna

43:05

be a crowd pleaser. So I think that it's

43:07

gonna be overshadowed by that and

43:10

then you know, does it have the juice to sort

43:12

of Hang

43:15

around as these other things start coming out in July.

43:17

I do not know. Yeah

43:20

Um, I don't I will eat my hat if I'm

43:22

wrong about it being a bomb I hope it's not

43:24

but I'm concerned that this might be the one that

43:26

gets lost this summer. Yeah All

43:29

right. Well, we'll come back around and talk about

43:31

chapter 2 momentarily Tell

43:33

me about quiet place day one and then we'll take a break.

43:35

So what do you think about Lupita Nyong'o? Leading

43:38

this new I guess prequel

43:40

of these movies to perform

43:42

very well. So what do you think about this one? This

43:45

is one My only

43:47

concern is how much Paramount spent on it It

43:50

looks much much much bigger than the first

43:52

two movies and I fear that they might

43:54

have overextended a bit now Just in terms

43:57

of raw dollars and cents a quiet place

43:59

part two into 47 million in

44:01

May 2021. And that

44:03

was sort of during like the pandemic still. It

44:06

legged out to 160 domestic and 137 internationally for just

44:08

297 worldwide. And again, that was 2021,

44:14

much different circumstances. So I think we

44:16

could easily see something in a similar range, you

44:18

know, somewhere between a 40 and 50 million dollar

44:20

opening weekend, legs out from

44:22

there on could easily get to 300

44:25

worldwide. So that's that's kind

44:27

of I wouldn't be surprised if it plays similar

44:29

to part two. Okay. All

44:31

right, let's take a break. And then we'll come back and

44:33

we'll talk about July and August. Say

44:36

goodbye to your credit card rewards.

44:38

3D corporate megastores led by Walmart

44:40

target are pushing for long Congress

44:42

to take away your hard earned

44:45

cash back and travel points to

44:47

line their pockets. The Durban Marshall

44:49

credit card bill would enact harmful

44:51

credit card routing mandates. They would

44:54

end credit card rewards. If

44:56

you love your credit card rewards,

44:58

tell your lawmakers hands off my

45:00

rewards. Tell them to oppose the

45:02

Durban Marshall credit card bill. For

45:06

the past 30 years, care, heating and cooling put

45:08

you first. You are the reason they're open seven

45:10

days a week. You are why they make it

45:12

easy to schedule service at care, heating and cooling.com

45:15

concern for your safety is why they check every

45:17

gas furnace for carbon monoxide. It's because of you

45:19

that their technicians are paid to fix your furnace

45:21

and air conditioner not sell you a new one.

45:23

And if you do need a new furnace, your

45:26

team will make sure you get exactly what you

45:28

need at a cost that fits your budget. Care,

45:30

heating and cooling is committed to doing business, right?

45:32

Call them at 1 800 cooling.

45:35

When you need a company you can trust.

45:38

Ensuring your baby gets the nutrients

45:40

they need to grow and develop

45:42

is a top priority. A2 Platinum

45:44

is the formula you can trust.

45:46

A2 Platinum premium infant formula is

45:48

nutritionally complete with essential ingredients like

45:50

DHA, vitamin E, prebiotics

45:52

and choline. Everything tiny tummies need

45:54

to build a strong foundation and

45:56

without worry of harmful chemicals. A2

45:58

Platinum is the recipient of the

46:01

Clean Label Project's Purity Award and has a

46:03

flawless track record of zero recalls. That's

46:05

why millions of parents around the world have trusted

46:07

A2 for over 10 years. Join

46:10

them and choose A2 Platinum for your little

46:12

one. Right now, for a

46:14

limited time only, A2 is offering

46:16

podcast listeners an opportunity to try

46:19

A2 Platinum for free. Learn how

46:21

to get your free A2 Platinum

46:23

instant formula at a2platinum.com/podcast. And then

46:25

head to your local Meyers store

46:27

to pick it up. Go

46:30

now to the letter A,

46:32

the number two, platinum.com/podcast. Wrap

46:35

up your thrills this summer at Cedar Point

46:38

on the all new top thrill tube. Drive

46:41

the sky on the world's tallest and

46:43

fastest triple launch vertical speed wall. And

46:46

now for a limited time, get more Cedar Point

46:48

fun for less with our limited time bundle for

46:50

just $49.99. Get

46:53

admission, parking and all day drinks for

46:55

one low price. But you better hurry

46:57

because this bundle won't last long. Stay

47:00

now at cedarpoint.com. You

47:06

know how to book flights and

47:08

hotels. All you're missing is a

47:10

tool to plan the travel experiences

47:12

you'll have once you arrive. That's

47:15

why you need Viator. Book guided

47:17

tours, activities, excursions and more in

47:19

one place to make your trip

47:21

truly unforgettable. Viator has over 300,000

47:23

travel experiences to choose from. Everything

47:26

from simple tours to extreme adventures

47:28

and all the niche interesting stuff

47:30

in between. So you can plan

47:32

something that everyone you're traveling with

47:34

will enjoy. Real traveler reviews give

47:36

the inside scoop from people who've already

47:39

been on the experiences you're considering. So

47:41

you can plan with confidence. Free cancellation

47:43

helps you plan for the unexpected and

47:46

24 seven customer support

47:48

means you can travel worry free.

47:51

Code the Viator app now and use

47:53

code Viator10 for 10% off

47:55

your first booking in the app. Find

47:57

travel experiences for you. Do more.

47:59

with biotour. From

48:02

your fryer to the table, it's a quick

48:04

trip for crispy fries. But how about a

48:06

crosstown delivery? McCain's Sure-Crisp fries are designed to

48:08

go from fryer to container to carrier to

48:10

passenger seat across town during rush hour down

48:12

a shortcut that wasn't all that short to

48:14

a doorstep before they hit the table. And

48:17

that first bite, the crispiness, beefsworth.

48:21

Mmm. To the last bite,

48:23

McCain's Sure-Crisp fries. Go the

48:25

dish. See how far our

48:27

fries can take your business at

48:30

sure-crisp.com/delivery. What's

48:32

the easiest choice you can make?

48:34

Window instead of middle seat? Picking

48:36

a vendor who sends a great

48:38

gift basket? Outsourcing business tasks you

48:40

hate? What about selling with Shopify?

49:02

All the way to the did

49:04

we just hit a million orders

49:06

stage? Shopify is there to help

49:08

you grow. Whether you're selling scented

49:10

soap or offering outdoor outfits, Shopify

49:12

helps you sell. Wherever and whatever

49:14

you're selling, Shopify's got you covered.

49:16

Sign up for a $1 per

49:19

month trial period at

49:21

shopify.com/try. Go to shopify.com/try

49:24

now to grow your

49:26

business, no matter what

49:28

stage you're in.

49:30

shopify.com/try. springtime vibes

49:33

all over Arizona.

49:36

Break out of the winter breeze by hitting

49:38

the water at one of our lakes and

49:40

river parks. Take a hike among

49:42

the wildflowers. Just make sure to stay

49:44

on the trail and leave the flowers

49:46

for the bees. Discover

49:48

Arizona's best kept

49:50

secret and visit

49:52

azstateparks.com slash amazing

49:55

to start your springtime

49:57

adventure. All

50:01

right, let's get into it. Despicable Me 4, I

50:03

mean, I asked you to flag some

50:05

of the biggest movies of the summer potentially. This is, I think, I

50:07

will just say it right now. I

50:10

think this has a real shot at being the highest

50:12

grossing movie worldwide of the year. Yeah, that's what I

50:14

was thinking. I mean, these movies just like make bank.

50:17

That is what they do. It is unbelievable

50:20

how much money these films make. Can I

50:22

offer some content? Because

50:24

there are a lot of people that are probably listeners of

50:26

this podcast that don't have kids that are like... Who

50:29

cares? Well, let me tell you who cares. To

50:33

date, the Despicable Me franchise, counting the Minion

50:35

films, has made $4.64 billion worldwide. The

50:41

original Despicable Me, $544 million,

50:43

and that is the lowest grossing entry in

50:45

the franchise. Despicable Me 3

50:47

made $1 billion. Minions made $1.1 million. Minions

50:50

The Rise of Gru in 2022 made $9.39 million. These

50:54

movies make money. So

50:57

yeah, we're looking at even on the low end,

50:59

if this movie, quote unquote, flops

51:01

within this franchise, it makes $600 million worldwide.

51:05

So yeah, it's

51:08

one of the highest grossing movies of the year. And

51:10

most of the other big studio releases kind of cleared

51:12

out because they know that this movie is just going

51:14

to dominate for a little while. The only thing that

51:17

I have listed kind of in

51:19

its orbit still is on, I believe

51:21

it's July 5th, Maxine.

51:23

The third entry in Ty

51:26

West's trilogy, which started

51:28

with X and then was followed

51:30

up by Pearl a couple years ago. And now the

51:32

third movie is coming out. I'm really looking forward to

51:34

this personally. This is another one that is like pretty

51:36

small and is not going to be like a major

51:38

player at the box office this summer. But

51:41

that is like obviously totally different

51:43

energy and audience than Despicable Me

51:45

4. So I

51:47

guess it makes sense as a piece of counter programming to put a slot in there.

51:50

The only thing I will say about Maxine is

51:53

that people have caught up with X and Pearl

51:55

now, and those movies are made for almost nothing,

51:57

and they did relatively okay.

51:59

I wouldn't be

52:02

surprised if Maxine like makes a lot

52:04

more than X and Pearl did Just

52:07

because I think people have caught up

52:09

with those two movies now and I also

52:11

think that Maxine trailer plays great So yeah,

52:14

definitely so we'll see there but okay,

52:16

so July 12th. We have fly me to the

52:18

moon This is the movie that I'm I don't

52:20

even know I don't think think we

52:22

talked about it on the podcast yet, but the

52:24

trailer is out there It's Scarlett Johansson and Channing

52:26

Tatum as like people

52:29

in the 1960s during the space race

52:31

and there's They basically

52:33

have to like fake the moon landing just in case

52:35

it doesn't work It's like a rom-com kind of thing

52:37

I don't know This seems like the type of movie

52:40

that would have gotten made in the

52:42

90s and would have just been like a dime a

52:44

dozen like oh, yeah get you know two movie stars

52:46

throw them together and We'll call

52:48

it a day and like that, you know, we

52:50

used to get movies like this all the time

52:52

this movie now just feels like such an outlier

52:54

given the Cinematic

52:57

landscape that we've experienced over the past few

52:59

years So what do you think about this

53:01

one as almost like a throwback to a

53:03

an era long past? Yeah, I

53:07

I for one love the premise of this movie. I

53:09

think you have two big movie stars in it. I This

53:13

is another one of those ones that like if it goes

53:15

very well You

53:18

know, it could do it could surprise us all

53:21

I think the Lost City remains one of

53:23

my biggest surprises of the pandemic era Which

53:26

starred Shannon Tatum and Sandra

53:28

Bullock again another

53:30

two-hander And that did

53:32

105 domestic and it ended up

53:34

at one just basically 193 worldwide You

53:38

know against a 30 million dollar domestic opening. I

53:42

Don't know if fly me to the moon has that

53:44

same Like angle to

53:46

it. I don't know if it'll

53:48

get that same Level of

53:50

pop. I don't know what

53:52

they spent on it But like, you know, I think

53:55

like the absolute roof for it would be, you know,

53:57

lost city numbers I skeptical

54:00

of it getting that far

54:04

but you know I think like if it

54:06

goes very poorly you could be looking at

54:08

maybe Asteroid City

54:10

numbers you know Wes

54:14

Anderson which was like 53 worldwide which was

54:16

like good for Wes Anderson bad for a movie

54:18

that probably cost as much money as they spent

54:21

on this. So

54:23

that's July

54:26

12th and then July 19th

54:28

is Twisters and I'm so

54:30

curious about this because like it Twister

54:33

was a big movie in the 90s and

54:35

like you know that was more of the

54:37

monoculture time like everybody's attention spans weren't as

54:39

fractured that movie like sort of captured the

54:41

imagination that had a great trailer the whole

54:44

thing that the cow flying through the you

54:46

know that the sea-chee cow and the tornado

54:48

and all that like it was a movie

54:50

that had iconography so I feel like and

54:53

it was also like one of the big the first big DVDs

54:55

if I remember correctly it was sort of like

54:58

right around that era so you know

55:00

there's like it's in the public consciousness

55:02

in a way that a lot of

55:05

movies just weren't so the idea of

55:07

trying to capitalize on that in a

55:09

modern context introducing Glenn Powell and a

55:11

whole new cast of characters and like

55:14

not really playing up any connections at all

55:16

to the previous movie in the marketing I

55:18

don't I don't know whether they exist in

55:20

the story other than just

55:23

like hey remember Twister now we're adding an

55:25

S and there are multiple tornadoes

55:27

this time around so it's just a really

55:29

really interesting sort of gambit here so what

55:31

do you think about this one yeah

55:34

I think it's worth remembering how big of a

55:36

hit Twister was in 1996 92

55:39

million dollar budget which was just gargantuan at that time

55:41

I mean that that is just as big as movie

55:43

Scott at that 41

55:46

million dollar opening which was massive you know

55:48

because these are unadjusted for inflation numbers 494

55:51

million dollars worldwide in 1996 again unadjusted

55:55

for inflation just an unmitigated

55:57

success train and it's a movie that

55:59

is to hung around Like it still plays on cable to

56:01

this day. So it's made a bunch of money. Um,

56:05

I kind of think it's smart to

56:08

not play up the connection to

56:10

a movie. A lot of younger people might not even

56:12

know, but people that do know,

56:14

it's like nodding enough at them where you're like,

56:16

Oh, hell yeah. Um, and I

56:19

think, you know, you have Glenn

56:21

Powell has absolutely asserted himself as a movie

56:23

star. I think you have a good supporting

56:25

cast there. Um, this is one

56:27

where I'm wildly concerned about what they spent on

56:29

it. I still don't know what the budget is,

56:31

but I, I'm nervous. Um,

56:34

because they are, you know,

56:37

like they're depending on this sort of playing like

56:39

Top Gun Maverick. You know what I mean?

56:41

Like where people are super stoked about a

56:43

movie 30 years later that is connected to

56:45

the thing they liked. Um, this

56:47

one does not have Tom Cruise in it. So I don't know. Um,

56:50

I think if this movie makes like what

56:52

the original made worldwide, that would be a

56:54

win like somewhere in the neighborhood of 500

56:56

worldwide. But, um, I think anything

56:58

less than like three 50 worldwide. And this is

57:01

like an unmitigated disaster because of what they probably

57:03

spent on it. So yeah, I was just

57:05

looking on Wikipedia and there's something that claims that

57:07

the budget is $200 million, but it's behind a,

57:09

a paywall for an article at

57:12

the Oklahoma. So I'm guessing like, you

57:15

know, that was part of where they filmed it or

57:17

something. And maybe somebody heard something there. I'm not sure

57:19

about the, well, but that ought to be, I don't

57:21

know what the tax incentives are in Oklahoma, but you

57:23

know, that could be, again, a pre-tax pre-tax incentive figure.

57:26

Um, so, but, but even so I'm guessing this is no

57:28

less than $150 million movie. It

57:30

looks very expensive. So, yeah, I hope

57:33

it turns out to be really good, man. I'm just

57:35

like, I do too. I love Daisy Edgar Jones. I

57:37

think I love Glenn Powell. Like I, and it looks

57:39

fun. It looks like a fun movie. Yeah. But yeah,

57:41

again, it's just one of those ones where you're sort

57:43

of counting on an old school blockbuster to pay off.

57:46

Yeah. I hope that's one that gets like really

57:48

good word of mouth. The problem though, that we'll

57:50

get to right now is that the next weekend

57:52

is, um, July 26th and that's Deadpool

57:54

and Wolverine. And that is another one of those movies

57:56

that I feel like it's very, I feel comfortable in

57:58

saying it's going to be. one of the biggest movies

58:01

of summer, if not the year. It's going

58:03

to be a movie that eats up a lot of

58:05

attention. And it just has like such a wide swath

58:08

of people who are interested in it, even if

58:10

you know, there's so many conversations about superhero fatigue

58:12

and all that kind of stuff. I feel like

58:14

this is going to be one of those ones

58:16

that just kind of like immune to all of

58:18

that stuff. It's immune to everything because

58:20

it got huge effort back as Wolverine

58:23

and then the Deadpool movies are

58:25

like beloved for what they are. So and

58:27

once again, you've got the Ryan Reynolds of it all

58:29

that we talked about earlier. So yeah, there's no question.

58:32

This is one of our top grocers of the year.

58:34

I think I've seen a fair amount of footage from

58:36

this at CinemaCon. I've sensed a turning of the

58:38

tide in our circles, like people are just worn

58:40

out on the Wolverine thing, the Deadpool thing, people

58:42

are worn out on the superhero stuff. So there's

58:45

like a lot of negativity in like

58:47

film Twitter for this, your

58:50

average moviegoer, I guarantee you is not

58:52

feeling that like people are pumped for

58:54

this. Yeah. So this is

58:57

one of the only guaranteed $100

58:59

million plus opening weekends of the

59:01

summer. I think it

59:04

probably at least matches the worldwide

59:06

gross of Deadpool 2, which was at $786 million, which fun

59:10

fact is against all odds Brad

59:12

Pitt's highest grossing movie of all time. He's actively

59:14

in the movie. That is one of

59:16

my weirdest things that I've discovered in doing this job.

59:18

That's so cheap. Isn't it? Isn't it? I wrote

59:20

a whole thing. It was an episode. Please

59:23

go look at my Tales from the Box Office

59:25

column on that. But but yeah, so it is so

59:27

cheap, but it is technically true. But but yeah,

59:29

so I think that like, people

59:32

keep wanting this to be a billion

59:34

dollar grocer. And I'm not saying that's

59:36

impossible. But I think that this probably

59:38

more realistically is closer to Deadpool 2

59:40

numbers with an outside shot of getting

59:42

closer to a billion, but maybe not

59:45

cracking it. But then maybe being our one

59:47

of the top three highest grossing movies of the year. That's what

59:49

I'm okay. Alright, so let's burn

59:52

through August real quick, because we're running a

59:54

little bit long here. So we've got Harold

59:56

and the purple crayon on August 2. I

59:58

mean, I just have like negative

1:00:01

interest in this like not even zero just

1:00:03

like negative interest. So I don't know. Zachary

1:00:05

Levi, man, like talk about going from like

1:00:08

Shazam to like the past few things he's

1:00:10

done. And like, cuz I'm with

1:00:12

you. I don't think anyone is interested in

1:00:14

this movie. Like even the audience that's aimed

1:00:16

at like, I do not know what's going

1:00:18

on here. Yeah. This is one

1:00:20

that's been hasn't been done for like a long

1:00:22

time. I think so. I want to say they

1:00:25

finished it like a couple years ago or something.

1:00:27

Yeah, but filming took

1:00:29

place around the beginning of 2022. So yeah, it's been a little while.

1:00:35

I'm not I did this is one I'm

1:00:37

again with a live action CGI movie, it's

1:00:40

you can only make them so cheaply. So

1:00:42

I don't know what they spent on

1:00:44

this. But there is just no buzz on

1:00:47

this one whatsoever. Nobody cares. Yeah. So

1:00:49

I again, you talk about things that I think could

1:00:51

like flop and flop hard this year. I don't

1:00:53

like to be mean. I don't like to pick on things. I

1:00:56

think this is you're looking at one of them right here. Yeah.

1:00:59

So speaking of things that actually do have

1:01:01

good buzz. trap M. night Shyamalan's new movie

1:01:03

starring Josh Hartnett comes out the following weekend,

1:01:05

which is August 9. Yeah, this

1:01:07

is going to be going up against borderlands. So what do

1:01:10

you think about these two trap

1:01:12

was of everything I saw

1:01:14

at CinemaCon, the trailer has since dropped. But

1:01:16

I saw that before it dropped. And I

1:01:18

was trying to relay to you guys like

1:01:20

holy crap, this looks cool. And

1:01:22

I think luckily that I wasn't just like

1:01:24

the buzz in that room. People seem really

1:01:27

behind this one. Yeah. And there's a reason

1:01:29

Warner Brothers signed Shyamalan to that deals because

1:01:31

ever since he stopped doing

1:01:33

big franchise movies, he's been a reliable bet, you

1:01:35

know, knock at the cabin was the movie that

1:01:37

he throwed Avatar to with the box office. So

1:01:39

you know, like I think that trap is well

1:01:42

positioned. You

1:01:44

know, probably

1:01:48

I'm looking at what his last few

1:01:50

movies have done. And I'm

1:01:53

wondering, you know, and again, I think reception

1:01:56

is important, right? Like, you know, with

1:01:58

Shyamalan's movies in particular. But I

1:02:00

think what's interesting is he has built up such

1:02:02

a reputation now of like just curiosity that

1:02:05

even a movie like old that wasn't exceptionally

1:02:07

well received still made 89 million

1:02:09

dollars worldwide. So I think

1:02:12

that like that's certainly on the table

1:02:14

here, but like if things go exceedingly

1:02:16

well, let us not forget that Split

1:02:18

did 278 worldwide. And

1:02:22

that was before. No one knew that that was connected to

1:02:24

Unbreakable. That was just marketed as a movie on its own

1:02:26

terms. The visit made just

1:02:28

shy of 100 worldwide. So I think Trap

1:02:32

could...it shouldn't have a problem

1:02:35

getting to 100 if it's

1:02:37

even remotely good. But if

1:02:39

you can somehow get to that pre-pandemic split

1:02:42

level of excitement, who knows? Yeah, that

1:02:44

would rule. Borderlands has just been like...it's

1:02:47

had such a stink on it because of

1:02:49

all the reshoots and the director changing and

1:02:51

all that kind of stuff. But the trailer

1:02:54

kind of makes it seem like none of that

1:02:56

matters. And I think for people who don't follow

1:02:58

this stuff closely, you never really know that watching

1:03:00

the trailer, which makes it just look like a

1:03:02

big sort of Guardians of the Galaxy-esque riff. So

1:03:05

what do you think about the prospects of this one? I

1:03:08

think this movie working would

1:03:11

be Sonic the Hedgehog numbers. And not to

1:03:13

use that again. It's not Guardians of

1:03:15

the Galaxy. It's not making 800 million worldwide. It's

1:03:17

just not. But I

1:03:19

think that if it can somehow avoid critical

1:03:22

disaster, the first Sonic the Hedgehog

1:03:24

did about 320 worldwide. I

1:03:26

think that would be this working. I

1:03:29

think it

1:03:32

not working is worse.

1:03:35

I'm not super sure of how

1:03:38

low this one could go. I

1:03:40

think it gets a certain level

1:03:42

of interest just because

1:03:44

it is within... Maybe

1:03:47

it's like Madam Web. It's a 100

1:03:49

million worldwide movie. Maybe that's the bottom

1:03:51

end for this one. So

1:03:54

that would be kind of my look

1:03:56

there. So that could in theory be

1:03:58

a good weekend where you have to...

1:04:00

Trapp probably being the top movie if

1:04:02

it's received well and then borderlands kind

1:04:04

of on its tail at number two

1:04:06

So you have two movies that combined

1:04:08

maybe let's say, you know bring 80

1:04:10

million dollars worth of ticket sales Yeah,

1:04:12

you know So yeah, that

1:04:14

seems that seems promising to me. All right, I

1:04:17

think we only have four movies to talk about

1:04:19

left Alien Romulus is the

1:04:21

next weekend, which is August 16th. That's going

1:04:23

up against horizon chapter 2 So

1:04:26

we think about these two what's interesting is

1:04:28

I think that Alien Romulus is Probably

1:04:31

going to be a big hit but

1:04:33

only because it's probably made a lot

1:04:36

cheaper than Alien Covenant was So

1:04:38

Alien Covenant cost 97 million

1:04:41

before marketing and it made 240 worldwide, but

1:04:43

basically 241 74

1:04:45

domestic I think if this movie

1:04:47

does Alien Covenant numbers, it's going to be

1:04:50

considered a success Which is interesting

1:04:52

and I actually think that's probably where it'll end up

1:04:54

if I were to guess it'd probably be close to

1:04:56

that But Disney knew not to spend a hundred million

1:04:58

dollars on an alien movie again so

1:05:02

And I also think it's different because this was originally supposed

1:05:04

to only go to Hulu that was what it was made

1:05:07

Like under the guise of but I think that as we've talked

1:05:09

about before They saw the buzz

1:05:11

on prey which went directly to Hulu and

1:05:13

I know that there were circumstances that dictated

1:05:15

that I don't think Disney's ever doing

1:05:18

that again so I think

1:05:20

that this is a movie that you

1:05:22

know, it benefits from both being horror and kind

1:05:24

of a big franchise thing, so That

1:05:28

that's one that I would look at is like maybe one

1:05:30

of the sleepers I know it's weird to call it was

1:05:32

made like under the guise of but I

1:05:34

think that as we've talked about before They

1:05:37

saw the buzz on prey which went directly

1:05:39

to Hulu and I know that there were

1:05:41

circumstances that dictated that I don't

1:05:43

think Disney's ever doing that again so

1:05:45

I think that this is a movie that You

1:05:48

know, it benefits from both being horror and kind

1:05:50

of a big franchise thing. So That

1:05:54

that's one that I would look at is like maybe one

1:05:56

of the sleepers I know it's weird to call an alien

1:05:58

movie a sleeper, but people were not super high

1:06:00

on covenants. So I

1:06:02

would consider that a slight sleeper

1:06:05

movie of the summer. Okay. So

1:06:07

do you think Horizon Chapter 2 is just going

1:06:09

to be like way worse than Chapter 1

1:06:12

because you were thinking Chapter 1 might

1:06:14

end up being just a straight up bomb, right? What's

1:06:17

fascinating here is we've never had a situation like

1:06:19

this that I can recall where the

1:06:21

Chapter 2 or sequel to a movie comes

1:06:24

out literally like what, like two months later?

1:06:28

And so, okay, is that enough

1:06:30

time for, let's say

1:06:32

the first one doesn't do exceptionally

1:06:34

well in theaters, but is Warner

1:06:37

Brothers going to ensure that in

1:06:39

that two month window, it makes it

1:06:41

to VOD and or streams on max

1:06:43

so people can catch up with it

1:06:45

before the second one comes out? Is

1:06:48

that enough time for that? I say no way. Right.

1:06:51

And that's my thing. So you're

1:06:54

relying on only the

1:06:56

retention from Horizon

1:06:58

Chapter 1. So

1:07:02

I'm not, if the first one doesn't do really

1:07:04

well, I think your odds of getting

1:07:07

more people out for Chapter 2 are, you know,

1:07:10

obviously low. And I think getting the exact

1:07:12

same people to show up again, who knows?

1:07:14

We'll see. But

1:07:16

yeah, so I this that one is

1:07:18

one on especially opening against Alien, especially

1:07:20

a week after Trap. It

1:07:23

could be rough. The upside to

1:07:25

this, Ryan, as I see it is maybe

1:07:27

this is the movie, this is the franchise

1:07:29

that gets people who haven't come back to

1:07:31

the theaters yet since the pandemic to come

1:07:34

back. Like, like I said, you know, older

1:07:36

audiences who love Kevin Costner stuff from back

1:07:38

in the day. And like, maybe

1:07:40

they're just like fully on board with this. And

1:07:42

they would be willing to go to the movies

1:07:44

not once, but twice in a season. Whereas, you

1:07:46

know, maybe since the pandemic that

1:07:49

would just like not be in

1:07:51

their interest set. I completely agree.

1:07:53

This working is me looking stupid

1:07:55

in a few months. And this be and like and

1:07:58

I hope that's true. Let me be let me Please, please,

1:08:00

snip this, say it for the record. I hope I look

1:08:02

like an idiot. Because I want

1:08:04

these things to succeed. I want all these, I

1:08:07

don't like it when movies fail because it's not

1:08:09

good for anybody. I am

1:08:11

not rooting for anything to fail. Like,

1:08:13

so, yeah, I wanna look dumb. I want

1:08:15

those same people that made Top Gun Maverick an

1:08:18

unexpectedly huge success to show up for this. And

1:08:20

I think you're right. I am

1:08:22

just still nervous about the experiment because it

1:08:24

is very hard to market an original movie

1:08:26

anyway. Marketing two of them back to back

1:08:28

is a Herculean task.

1:08:32

So I'm hopeful, but we'll see. Okay,

1:08:34

so last two movies that I have on my

1:08:36

list, and please let me know if there's anything

1:08:38

that I missed or that you might have on

1:08:40

this final weekend in August, which is August 23rd,

1:08:43

it looks like, is The Crow

1:08:45

and then Blink Twice, which is,

1:08:48

I think it's Zoe Kravitz's directorial debut. I just saw

1:08:50

the trailer for this debut not too long ago. And

1:08:52

Channing Tatum is in this one too. So I guess

1:08:54

we got like a Summer of Tatum or something in

1:08:56

some ways. A little bit, a little bit. Yeah, with

1:08:58

that and Fly Me to the Moon. So it's like

1:09:01

a murder mystery type of thing, like very-

1:09:03

It's fun. Yeah, like sexy, mysterious kind

1:09:05

of fun movie. So that

1:09:08

is very different than the like ultra

1:09:10

dark, violent version of The Crow that's

1:09:12

coming out. Honestly,

1:09:15

I'm shocked, we've talked about this before, but I'm shocked

1:09:17

that this version of The Crow is even seeing the

1:09:19

light of day, given how long it's been in development.

1:09:22

Indeed. A long, long, long time coming.

1:09:25

I personally have like zero interest in

1:09:27

it. So it's just gonna like

1:09:29

come and go as far as I'm concerned. But I am curious about

1:09:32

what you think its prospects are given

1:09:35

the talent that it has involved. Yeah,

1:09:37

so I think Blink twice, just to

1:09:39

real quick knock that one out. I

1:09:41

think that's like an Amazon MGM movie.

1:09:43

They're not necessarily relying on it to

1:09:45

profit solely in theaters. I think anywhere

1:09:47

between, it could 10, 12

1:09:49

million opening weekends, something like that would probably be fine.

1:09:53

And then it can leg out a little bit as

1:09:55

summer winds down. And that would

1:09:58

be a nice little win for them. them.

1:10:01

If it does anything more, great. I

1:10:03

think The Crow is fascinating.

1:10:05

I think, like, it's a franchise,

1:10:08

yes, but it's not one that has been successful

1:10:10

in 30 years. The

1:10:12

sequels were not successful, and, you

1:10:14

know, there's a reason this has been a hard reboot to get

1:10:17

off the ground. I will say the footage is exceptionally

1:10:20

violent, like, weirdly sexy

1:10:22

in like a gothy sort of way. I

1:10:25

know a lot of people are, like, ragging on the

1:10:27

look of it, but I sort

1:10:29

of see the marketing pitch there, like, so

1:10:32

I think, like, this really working is

1:10:35

John Wick Chapter Two numbers, like 30

1:10:37

million domestic opening, 92 domestic

1:10:39

finish, 171 worldwide, like, that would

1:10:42

be Lionsgate very happy with this. I

1:10:46

think less happy is John

1:10:48

Wick Chapter One numbers, you

1:10:51

know, which has you, you

1:10:53

know, topping out at 86

1:10:56

worldwide, you know, and with like a

1:10:58

14 million dollar opening. I think it

1:11:00

probably falls somewhere between those two. How

1:11:03

far on either side of the line. I'm not

1:11:05

super sure yet. But yeah, that's that's my guess.

1:11:08

And I guess before we you know, you said

1:11:10

those are our last two movies, we did mention

1:11:12

up top that Craven the Hunter moved. Craven the

1:11:14

Hunter was originally August 30, which was

1:11:16

the last weekend of August. We

1:11:19

kind of needed that movie there. Yeah, there's

1:11:22

nothing else there, right? Not really nothing else

1:11:24

there. So I wouldn't be surprised if this

1:11:26

release calendar shuffles a little bit. Um,

1:11:30

you know, likes maybe one of these movies

1:11:32

moves a week or two that we've talked

1:11:34

about like horizon moving two weeks to August

1:11:37

30 might make sense. Because then

1:11:39

that gives you a couple more weeks for a VOD window,

1:11:42

possibly, you have less competition directly.

1:11:45

So but the only problem with that is I'm

1:11:47

Warner Brothers says Beetlejuice Beetlejuice coming out on September

1:11:49

6. So I don't know. But

1:11:52

yeah, I do think it sucks now that

1:11:54

the last weekend of summer is like, absolutely

1:11:56

nothing coming out. There

1:11:58

is Reagan, which was a biopic

1:12:01

about Ronald Reagan, I believe, um, that was

1:12:03

advertised at CinemaCon that I got a hat

1:12:05

for. I don't,

1:12:08

obviously, I don't think that obviously that's not gonna be

1:12:10

a big winner there, but yeah,

1:12:12

so I wouldn't be shocked if something shifts

1:12:14

into that August 30th window. I would

1:12:17

be more shocked if something doesn't. Let's put it that

1:12:20

way. Yeah. So I think the

1:12:22

best case scenario for me would

1:12:25

either be one of those September 13th movies,

1:12:27

perhaps Transformers 1 or Speak No Evil bumps

1:12:29

up to August 30th. That would be my

1:12:32

hope. Okay. All

1:12:34

right. So, um, I don't know. We just went

1:12:36

through all these movies, Ryan. What's your takeaway from

1:12:38

this? Like, what do you, um, what are you

1:12:40

feeling like in terms of the summer? Are you

1:12:43

like, uh, kind of like dreading it? Or you,

1:12:45

you think there's maybe some secret, um, movies waiting

1:12:47

in the wings to potentially do better than people

1:12:49

are expecting? I'm honestly

1:12:52

nervous. Like, I'm like, I really

1:12:54

think that's my, like, I

1:12:57

think it's gonna be a little bit of a bumpy ride.

1:13:00

Um, there's gonna be some bright spots in there,

1:13:02

but I also think that, like Garfield and Mad

1:13:04

Max opening the same weekend sucks.

1:13:06

You know, like, I think we should have spread the love a

1:13:08

little more. You and I have talked about this a bunch this

1:13:10

year where there was those first two

1:13:12

months where we're just like, there's nothing here. And

1:13:14

you know, like there's now like some semi crowded

1:13:16

weekends here. And, um, yeah,

1:13:19

I'm a little nervous. Like, I'm a nerd. I'm

1:13:21

nervous that on July, you know, June 21st, the

1:13:23

bike riders is our big movie, you

1:13:25

know, like I'm, I'm, so I'm cautiously

1:13:28

optimistic, but I would say emphasis on cautiously.

1:13:31

Okay. Yeah. So the, uh, you know, we'll

1:13:33

see. But we need these movies to be

1:13:35

good. We need people to like love them.

1:13:37

We need them to deliver at

1:13:39

the top end of expectations. And how

1:13:42

often does that truly happen? Yeah. That's

1:13:44

the thing is like, I'm, I'm hoping that there are

1:13:46

so many of these that turn out to be so

1:13:48

great that they drive forward a mouth that then drives,

1:13:50

you know, more people to go to the movie to

1:13:52

check the stuff out. So that's all

1:13:54

we can hope for as we head into any summer

1:13:56

season. So, uh, fingers crossed. And maybe

1:13:58

we'll do like a deep, debrief or something at

1:14:00

the end of the summer as we head into fall or

1:14:02

something like that, just like looking back and, or

1:14:05

probably in our weekly coverage, we'll, we'll paint

1:14:07

a pretty clear picture of what's going on.

1:14:10

So all right, I think that's

1:14:12

going to do it for today's show. You can find

1:14:14

much more about, you know, predictions and things like that,

1:14:16

but also like just a ton of box office coverage

1:14:18

and all that at slashfilm.com. I will try to link

1:14:20

to a couple of things in the show notes as

1:14:22

well. Slashfilm Daily is published every weekday,

1:14:24

bringing you the most exciting news from the world of movies

1:14:26

and TV, as well as deeper dives into the great features

1:14:29

you can find on the site. You

1:14:31

can subscribe to the show on Apple, Overcast,

1:14:33

Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts, send your

1:14:35

feedback, questions, comments, concerns, and mailbag topics to

1:14:38

us at bpearson at slashfilm.com.