0:01

In the words of George Santos, there is

0:03

no such thing as Diva Down. There is

0:05

only Diva up. Hello

0:15

and welcome to this late night

0:18

Special Election Reaction edition of the

0:20

Five Thirty Eight Politics podcast. I'm

0:22

Gail and Drew It's about a

0:25

quarter past eleven, and View Raised

0:27

in New York's Third Congressional District

0:30

has already been called for Democrat

0:32

Tom Swasey. According to the latest

0:34

tallies right now, with about eighty

0:37

five percent of the expected vote

0:39

in Swasey leaves republican Marzieh Pellet

0:41

by about ten points. Although we

0:44

expect that to narrow. As

0:46

more of the election day vote comes in

0:48

somewhere in the range of six three points.

0:50

Although by the time you're listening to

0:52

the podcast you may well now what that

0:55

margin box like. Either way, Swasey one pretty

0:57

decisively. it looks like he will end up

0:59

beating the limited polling that we had in

1:02

the district which showed about three or

1:04

four point lead going in. So we're going

1:06

to talk about it and he really to

1:08

do that as politics reportedly as gonna walk

1:10

in the podcast. Leah. Good evening,

1:13

Galen. All to hear of us

1:15

is A B C and National Politics

1:17

reporter Britney Shepherd. Welcome back to the

1:19

poverty. Happy to be here. At

1:22

also joining us is Jacob Were Baskin

1:24

deputy editor of Inside a Light Shines.

1:26

Wow! the podcast a bit so good

1:28

to have you. A thank you

1:30

Gail and first time long time here

1:32

capita be here. It's always great to

1:34

I have a first timer at A

1:36

Very flattered that you're also a long

1:38

time or so. All three of you

1:40

have either written about this district, spent

1:42

time in this district. Britney you lived

1:44

in this district so we really got

1:46

the East team on the podcast and

1:48

I and I wanna just kick things

1:50

off with. It's. A hot take

1:53

economy out there. You know the presidential

1:55

election is feeling like a slog right

1:57

now. We just got a competitive. Special

2:00

Election. And it's in a suburban

2:02

district. In a district like those

2:04

that these house majority is going

2:06

to run through this false maybe

2:09

the kind of district they could

2:11

even determine who wins the presidential

2:13

election. And so a lotta folks

2:15

are way and and jacob as

2:17

a first timer. Once. You

2:19

take a sauce. What's your take away from

2:22

tonight's results? Look. It's it's

2:24

good news for Democrats, right? This is an

2:26

easy call. This is a positive for democrats

2:28

both immediately and in the long term us.

2:30

You know they only have to pick off

2:33

five seats in order to take back the

2:35

house majority it's heading into tonight, and now

2:37

they've got one of those. That's that's twenty

2:39

percent job done already and we're still more

2:42

than eight months away from election Day south.

2:44

or this is a good thing for them.

2:46

They get an incumbent, a seasoned incumbent, and

2:48

a competitive district. Heading into the false, they

2:51

proved that they're still a viable party out.

2:53

On Long Island and they get

2:55

a good news event in what

2:57

has been a. Pretty.

2:59

Disastrous new cycle for them. With the past

3:01

week of of stuff coming out of the

3:03

White House south or are all in, this

3:06

is a good night for Democrats. Republicans still

3:08

very much in the game, but you know

3:10

they would prefer to go the other way.

3:12

Okay, notably no national lesson with the I

3:15

picked up on that Jacob. I don't know

3:17

how intentional that was, I assume it was.

3:19

Britney. What? Are your take away as. Well

3:22

let me introduce a national election take

3:24

which we know is probably plastered all

3:26

over cable news right now. it's more

3:28

of a questions as Trump solidly last

3:30

the suburbs that's already Ah a claim

3:32

that were hearing from both the White

3:34

House and Nikki Haley. Did I actually

3:36

that this election was actually a referendum

3:39

on Trump says I'm in Magic is

3:41

a really really to I was putting

3:43

a lot of times in my home

3:45

deter. this is where I go up

3:47

to my parents still live. I was

3:49

there for the last two weeks or

3:51

so and. Really hear Donald

3:53

Trump's name mentioned all too much.

3:55

but Nikki Haley's really wants to

3:57

see like this. losses. And just fallen.

4:00

Marty Pill up and the Nasa Geo P

4:02

but also is at the hands of Donald

4:04

Trump. that's I think that message we're going

4:06

to hear from her a lot's tomorrow. Went

4:08

in there the remainder of the week as

4:10

she tries to show that maybe that there's

4:13

another way forward. I think the be here

4:15

a lot of chatter from political class on

4:17

on X about. For. The kind

4:19

of a suburban voters and ten

4:21

democrats replicate this November may be

4:23

running moderate and pushing anti. Trump

4:26

will help in a place like

4:28

this be some kind of winning.

4:30

Calculus. For. Needs. It's

4:32

funny said Nikki Haley is hammering pillow

4:34

Have been trying to tie Trump to

4:36

her loss because when I interviewed Mojito

4:38

Ups the two weeks ago see what

4:40

was very favorable toward Nikki Haley's I

4:42

asked about the Presidential election and how

4:44

she felt running as as Trump was

4:46

lock in for nomination issues like oh

4:48

you're forgetting about Nikki Haley It's like

4:50

bay I love Nikki Haley and she's

4:53

really great and we're going to see

4:55

what she can do with this primary.

4:57

So I guess Haley didn't get their

4:59

message if she's using her as a

5:01

tool against. Trump now. Are

5:03

so Jacobs? not the local? Britain's

5:05

got the national we're. Would. He

5:08

have for us the weather

5:10

system is the atmosphere. Or

5:12

yep, is that that snowfalls? I

5:14

think that the mean take the

5:16

way that you are going to

5:18

see from his assignment. Democrats already

5:20

saying that publicly like on social

5:23

media you know like else there's

5:25

that democrats have not lost the

5:27

suburbs that like this is a

5:29

very different suburbs from like the

5:31

Georgia's sixth suburbs that we were

5:33

looking at in the twenty seven

5:35

seen special accent the point twenty

5:37

he weighs. So I think the

5:39

big question delaying and knowing that

5:41

turnout. Was going to be a

5:44

crap shoot. you know, like this

5:46

as special election so who knows

5:48

we don't have comparable data to

5:50

be like what do New York

5:52

Third District voters do in February

5:54

as an election year? At like

5:56

we, we don't know who's going

5:58

to turn out. And then

6:01

it snowed here and now have

6:03

made life difficult. So it's one

6:05

of those where I feel like

6:07

if it was a mass his

6:09

victory on either side of blowouts,

6:11

we could maybe learn some lessons

6:13

from it. But because we're seeing

6:15

right now, Swasey is carrying the

6:17

District or Wings. Just had my

6:19

nine plain sight. Jacob said earlier

6:21

that will probably narrow biting carried

6:23

the District by eight points. Like,

6:25

what it's telling me is that

6:27

there hasn't been a massive shift

6:29

on. Long Island since.

6:32

Twenty. Twenty. It doesn't mean that

6:34

hasn't changed, as in political environment hasn't

6:36

gone harder. But it's not completely new

6:39

political terrain which is kind of looks

6:41

like it might as thin as the

6:43

Twenty Twenty Two elections. When George Santos

6:45

one the district, he and the republican

6:47

senate candidate carrying districts which was just

6:50

like not a competitive race sleep thousand

6:52

carrying. The district made a lot more sense

6:54

because in governor's race as voters are more

6:56

likely to switch parties. All that

6:58

to say, it's good news for

7:01

democrats, but it's not exactly assigned

7:03

to republicans like oh, don't even

7:05

try times cause the district carried

7:07

by a. Very

7:10

well be it's of her in her. We're

7:12

since you and you can have both. Sad

7:14

that this was a good night for democrats.

7:16

I'm gonna figure out and say that was

7:18

a good night for. Republicans.

7:20

The candidate who was hawkish on

7:22

the border, tough on crime, Ended

7:25

up winning the district. The only

7:27

problem is that that person who

7:30

was running on a republican platform

7:32

was. Oh crap a

7:34

democrat? That's actually why is

7:37

a visit District is so

7:39

hard to. derive national

7:41

meaning from because swasey is very

7:43

particular he had an hour bb

7:45

percent name recognition at the start

7:47

of this race in the district

7:50

he's extremely well known so that's

7:52

one two keys known to be

7:54

a moderates he was a primary

7:56

challenger to gov kathy hopeful of

7:59

new york who isn't even, wasn't

8:01

at least once upon a time, seen

8:03

as a particularly progressive governor, but he

8:05

ran to the right of Kathy Hochul

8:07

saying, you know, basically, she's

8:09

too progressive for New York. He

8:12

also was then hawkish

8:14

on immigration, hawkish on

8:16

crime, and emphasized those things,

8:19

ran ads saying that he

8:21

was, you know, different from the rest

8:23

of the Democrats and Joe Biden on

8:25

these issues. And so when

8:27

you have a candidate like that who's

8:29

known so well and so sort of

8:32

like significantly differentiated from the rest of

8:34

the party, does his win actually say

8:37

much about the Democratic Party on the whole? I

8:39

mean, maybe it tells them the direction they want

8:41

to move in if they want to win districts

8:43

like this, but does it actually

8:45

say that Democrats are going to, outside

8:47

of this one situation, do well in

8:50

places like this? I think

8:52

you make a good point, Galen, because I

8:54

talked to Tom Swazi last week about this

8:56

very thing, like, is there meaning to be

8:59

mined here? And he told me that his

9:01

campaign winner, Louis at the time, was a

9:03

big warning sign for Democrats, because he believed

9:05

that there has to be a lot more

9:07

Tom Swazis being run outside of special elections

9:09

in order to not just

9:12

inch into Republican margins, but to

9:14

completely flip the House. He really

9:16

believes that Biden and

9:19

the establishment should not be making

9:21

any concessions to the more

9:23

progressive flank of the party. But he believes it

9:26

through and through, right? And I am curious if

9:28

that's a message that will follow in deaf ears,

9:31

or if the election

9:33

committee is all the National Alphabet Soup committees

9:35

in DC will hear that, listen to that,

9:37

and maybe re-tanker the strategy when we're trying

9:39

to handpick some folks to run for the

9:41

upcoming elections. So I

9:43

don't totally buy that argument. First

9:46

off, granted, like Swazi is

9:48

a uniquely suited candidate to do

9:50

well in this district. Like, that

9:53

was a good recruit. And

9:55

who knows if he would have gotten

9:58

through, you know, a traditional Democratic primary,

10:00

he was handpicked by party leadership

10:02

because it was a special election

10:04

by local party leadership. But

10:07

the idea that he's running against

10:09

the Democratic Party, therefore he's, you

10:11

know, that's not necessarily a good sign for Democrats,

10:13

that's just kind of what happens in competitive districts.

10:15

Like, I think if we go back to 2018,

10:17

I mean, I

10:20

wish I had the number on me, but

10:22

like the number of Democrats who ran saying

10:24

that they wouldn't vote for Nancy

10:26

Pelosi for Speaker. They

10:29

weren't Trump supporters, but they at least pushed

10:31

back on the Democratic Party quite a bit.

10:33

And they did do the whole, you know,

10:36

gun rights and immigration and all of

10:38

that. So I think it's

10:41

a sign that Democrats can win

10:43

in New York, despite that messaging,

10:46

which was not clear before tonight,

10:48

I think, that state Democrats, especially

10:50

in New York and New York

10:53

City Democrats, have not poisoned the

10:55

well for Democrats running down

10:57

ballot in a way that prevents

10:59

anyone else from winning. I

11:02

have to push back a little here. I think

11:04

there's a big difference between running

11:06

against a decades

11:08

running boogie woman from San Francisco

11:11

in Nancy Pelosi, who has an

11:14

approval rating that's massively underwater

11:16

because her name is associated with the House

11:18

of Representatives, which you know, in an America

11:20

like versus the president of the

11:23

party who won the district by eight points in 2020,

11:25

right? Like if Joe Biden is going to win in

11:27

2024, he has to actually be

11:30

doing well in these districts, not be the

11:32

person that candidates have to run against in

11:34

order to win in these districts. Agreed.

11:36

And Biden plus eight district, it

11:38

is a concern, but this

11:41

is a Biden plus eight district in long on

11:43

Long Island, which we have. Thank you for the

11:45

correction from into on. I want to flag to

11:47

viewers that it is all in Long Island,

11:51

in Long Island. Leah, sorry. No, I'm

11:53

honored that you you caught that. This

11:55

is a unique district and

11:58

in districts that Biden narrowly

12:00

carried or that the sitting president narrowly

12:02

carried. We have those conversations every year

12:04

with, you know, is Biden or Obama

12:06

or Trump or whoever it is going

12:08

to campaign with these candidates down ballot.

12:10

And when it comes to those really

12:12

close districts, where maybe Biden carried it

12:14

by less than five points, I think

12:17

that's a conversation that is pretty normal

12:19

to have, you know, should you run

12:21

with the party, should you run against

12:23

the party, or just kind of run

12:25

on your own. And I think the

12:28

dynamic, okay, well, maybe you're convincing me,

12:31

because now that I'm thinking about it,

12:34

like, he didn't really know, no,

12:36

you're not I take it back. Because he

12:39

didn't have shocks. You

12:41

almost but he didn't run

12:43

against Joe Biden. He ran

12:46

against people who are

12:48

too far left. He ran against like

12:51

people who are too progressive, who won't

12:54

compromise. He wasn't running against Biden himself.

12:56

And I think like that kind of

12:58

running on your own, trying not to

13:00

associate yourself with the party is pretty

13:02

conventional for competitive districts. I take your

13:04

point. Can I meet you in the middle?

13:07

I also think that's an important differentiation that

13:09

I mean, he tried to distinguish himself as like

13:12

one of the only Democrats in the house who

13:14

voted x or y way on immigration. And so

13:16

he's, he was really differentiating himself

13:18

in some ways from like 90% of

13:21

the Democratic Party. But I also

13:24

take your point that he wasn't running

13:26

directly against Joe Biden. Jacob has been

13:28

quietly sitting here, batting

13:30

batting his eyelashes waiting for an

13:32

opportunity to jump in, take it away, Jacob. No,

13:35

look, I will thank you, Galen. I

13:39

don't think that Brittany, you know, I

13:41

think your turn of phrase

13:43

about the alphabet soup of party committees in

13:45

DC. I don't think those guys need any

13:48

more data points to convince themselves that

13:50

they need to be running more moderate Democrats

13:52

in swing districts across the country. I think

13:54

that has been the, the MO certainly

13:56

for Democrats over the

13:58

last four. election cycles. And

14:01

so I think to the extent that

14:03

there's still any sort of recruitment or

14:05

thumbs to be placed on scales and

14:07

primaries across the country, you know, I

14:09

would continue to imagine

14:12

that the more moderate

14:14

candidates would be looked upon more

14:16

favorably by folks here in Washington.

14:19

But again, I am just so wary

14:22

of nationalizing the lessons of this kind

14:24

of unique New York media environment. I

14:26

think there are a lot of lessons

14:28

to... I've read that a couple times

14:30

more. What was it? You need New

14:32

York media? There

14:36

are six or seven highly

14:38

competitive house races in the New York

14:40

media market. Three out

14:42

on Long Island, three in the Hudson

14:44

Valley, one, you know, in New

14:47

Jersey. That's the house majority right

14:49

there. And I know that

14:51

there's this tendency to try and take lessons

14:54

and extrapolate them across all 435 districts. And

14:56

sometimes we can, but sometimes we

14:59

don't need to. Sometimes we can, you know, call

15:01

the majority one way or another based on one

15:03

state and one media market even. And so

15:06

I do think that there are lessons for the Democrats

15:08

in New York. This worked for him in

15:10

this seat. I don't know if it's going to work

15:12

for, you know, the Democrat

15:14

running in Omaha or in Des Moines

15:16

or in the dozen or dozen

15:19

and a half other districts that are going

15:21

to be on the

15:23

House battlefield. I really am not

15:25

so convinced that, you know,

15:27

let a million Swazis bloom

15:30

is the winning strategy for

15:32

Democrats this fall. What about nine?

15:35

What about just Swazis in New

15:37

York? What about that? Like, how

15:41

many are there? My question

15:43

was more, does Swazi work

15:45

for Biden? Like, for

15:47

Biden's reelection campaign more than

15:50

can Democrats win a district

15:53

in Omaha based on

15:56

a homegrown Long

15:58

Islander? who was

16:00

known by 80% of the folks in

16:02

Nassau County. So we got

16:05

a poll from Siena

16:07

of this race, and it had Swazi

16:09

up by four. It looks like he'll

16:11

exceed that a little bit. But it

16:14

also had Donald Trump up by five

16:16

among the same sample. That

16:18

kind of speaks to what you're saying here,

16:20

that I think there's a perfectly reasonable universe in

16:23

which this was an electorate that

16:25

voted for Tom Swazi that would also vote

16:27

for Donald Trump or would at very least

16:29

be tied. I don't

16:31

think that Swazi winning

16:34

tonight is a sign that Joe

16:36

Biden has reclaimed the

16:38

lost territory on Long

16:40

Island, at least, let alone the suburbs

16:42

writ large. I think that there are

16:44

probably a number of people who voted

16:47

for Tom Swazi and are going to

16:49

turn around and vote for Donald Trump

16:52

because they either like both

16:54

of them or more specifically, they like

16:56

what both are saying about immigration. Democrats

16:58

shouldn't get too far over their skis

17:00

on the Biden angle of all of

17:02

this, which is why I spend all

17:04

this time talking about the House and

17:06

not so much the presidency. For

17:08

sure. And I do want to

17:10

notice that it could be that they like

17:12

Swazi, but it also be that Mazi Pillip

17:15

just didn't campaign a ton in this

17:17

race, at least not traditionally. And we

17:19

can't overlook that old turnout that we

17:22

talk about all the time. I see

17:24

people like us, it might seem a

17:26

no brainer, it all comes down to

17:28

turnout, right? But perhaps those

17:31

attacks of Swazi calling Mazi Pillip

17:33

basement Mazi, just borrow from Trump's

17:35

attacks of Biden, an interesting tax.

17:37

Maybe there was some truth to

17:39

that. And I think that

17:42

maybe he told me he believed that voters

17:44

saw through her brand and her story.

17:48

I wonder if him running digital

17:50

spots and the messaging around the

17:53

fact that she actually has quite

17:56

liberal views on abortion and

17:58

on owning guns. stronger than what

18:00

the police run. Also, all the events I

18:03

went to for her last week were in

18:05

the Esposito's district in New York 4. I

18:07

think that's partially because GOP HQ is down

18:09

there, but like she

18:11

could have easily had an event in

18:13

Port Washington or Glen Cove where Tom

18:15

Swasey is from and born and was

18:17

mayor of and didn't do any of

18:19

those things. Those sorts of

18:22

things, they matter. I

18:24

think you're drawing a really important

18:26

distinction between having a strong profile

18:28

and being a strong candidate. That's

18:32

something that I think has ripped up

18:34

Republicans a handful of times. Personally, I

18:36

am not saying that Philip was not

18:38

a strong retail politician. That's not something

18:41

that I've heard. I think it's just

18:43

kind of hearing what you're saying now.

18:45

Earlier tonight, we were talking about how

18:48

most of her campaign events in the

18:50

last couple weeks have been in the 4th district. That just

18:52

doesn't feel like the kind of

18:55

retail politics that might work in this kind

18:57

of district. It might be one of those,

18:59

and we've seen this

19:01

before, where the profile seems

19:04

to fit, but the actual candidacy is

19:06

much harder. That is where having an

19:08

incumbent or

19:11

a former representative in Tom

19:13

Swasey is going to give you an

19:15

advantage. Not only does he have the

19:18

profile, he also has the

19:20

connections. He's proven that he can win over

19:22

these voters. That's just like Republicans

19:24

were at a disadvantage because they did

19:26

not have a candidate who had

19:29

that kind of experience. We

19:31

also got a little bit of breaking

19:34

news late in the race

19:36

on immigration, which was the

19:38

bipartisan border deal that fell

19:40

apart under pressure from Trump

19:42

and more conservative Republicans.

19:45

I at least

19:47

would argue there was a pronounced shift in

19:49

even how Swasey was talking about the issue.

19:51

As soon as that happened, he was able

19:53

to use it

19:55

and use Phillips' opposition to that

19:58

bill as a cudgel. that

20:00

all of a sudden was

20:02

not so aggressive toward Biden,

20:04

toward Democrats, but toward the

20:06

problem of the border. And

20:09

so instead of attacking or trying to distance from

20:12

Biden, he could actually rein back

20:14

in and say, you know, Biden and the

20:16

Democrats are trying to solve this problem, and

20:18

it's the Republicans who aren't fixing

20:20

the issue. Now, I don't think that that

20:22

message had enough time to sink in in

20:25

this special election, that it really only played

20:27

out in the last week or so. It

20:29

never really showed up in paid media. But

20:31

I know that in the

20:33

fall, it is going to be one

20:36

of the main ways that

20:38

Democrats respond to immigration-based attacks from

20:40

Republicans, that they really do believe

20:43

that this is now their

20:46

most effective answer, and that Republicans

20:49

gave them a political gift

20:51

by killing this legislation before

20:53

it really got going, because it allows

20:55

them to turn it back on their

20:57

Republican opponents and say, you're the ones

21:00

who aren't fixing the problem. You're the ones

21:02

who are letting it sit and fester until

21:04

the next election, not working with us to

21:06

get something done. Yeah,

21:09

and that was a big part of Swazi's victory

21:12

speech tonight. He basically said, you

21:14

know, I want to work with anyone who wants

21:16

to solve problems and I'm against weaponizing political issues

21:18

to try to win elections.

21:21

Something else that happened during his victory

21:23

speech that segues into something that makes

21:26

this district perhaps a little unique is

21:28

that there were protesters, as

21:30

there are protesters now at a

21:32

lot of Democratic events, particularly events

21:35

for Biden and Harris, who appeared

21:37

to be pro-Palestine and opposing Democrats'

21:39

position on the war in Gaza.

21:42

This is a district where that was

21:44

a unique issue. In some ways, it

21:46

has a large population of Jewish Americans,

21:48

Mazi Pilip served in the IDF. How

21:51

did that issue end up playing out

21:54

here and did it once

21:56

again, we're saying this can't necessarily be

21:59

taken. as some sort of indication

22:01

of what could happen nationally. Like, how does

22:03

that make this district unique? Gail

22:05

and I also want to add to the list of how it's

22:08

personal. One of the Hamas

22:10

hostages is actually from the 3rd

22:12

Congressional District, and his

22:14

parents had an individual and a rally

22:16

for him in both Swazi and Pilip

22:18

showed up kind of together as

22:20

a united front to say that, you know,

22:23

to demand the hostages be released. And

22:25

it's unique, right? It made it

22:27

seem very real and very tangible in a

22:29

way for people, just ephemeral, or they try

22:31

to block it out when they're watching cable

22:33

news or they're doomscrolling and they can't really

22:36

wrap their fingers and their brain around

22:38

everything. But Mazi really leaned into her

22:40

personal background, right? Saying she was born

22:43

in Africa and she moved to Israel,

22:45

she was an IDF paratrooper, she was

22:47

strong, she had seven children, and that,

22:49

you know, she was going to deliver

22:51

justice for Israel. But beyond that, like

22:54

the specifics kind of fell apart, right?

22:56

There was not like a lot of

22:58

b-side to that story. And

23:00

Swazi maintained from the beginning that he was

23:02

also a very strong ally of Israel and

23:05

trying to walk that tightrope of also

23:07

making sure he made inroads with Muslim

23:09

voters in the area. And I think

23:11

that that piece about Muslim voters wasn't

23:13

something that we actually heard from Mazi

23:16

Pilip all too much. And listen, I

23:18

haven't seen the individual town totals come

23:20

back. I'd love to actually dig into

23:22

that more. But it might show that

23:24

there was turnout in Jewish areas. I

23:26

think it's the highest Jewish voting

23:29

district. Jacob Lea, is that true? I think

23:31

I saw around at least 11%. Yeah,

23:34

maybe the Nadler and the Goldman

23:36

districts might be up there

23:39

as well. But it's definitely top five, maybe top three.

23:41

Right. So of course, like there are going to be towns

23:44

like Great Neck where she's from

23:46

or the parts of the South

23:49

Shore of high concentration

23:51

of Jewish Democrats and some

23:53

Jewish unaffiliated untethereds that

23:55

could have pushed us in Swazi's direction. I

23:58

mean, the first thing Swazi did. After he

24:00

became the democratic nominee in this special was

24:02

get on a plane and go to Israel.

24:06

You know that was. That was how he

24:08

kicked off his special election bed because he

24:10

knew that this was gonna be an issue.

24:13

Because. Of the District and it

24:15

was especially going to be an issue

24:18

because of who the Republican nominee was.

24:20

You know, driving through the district and

24:22

I was there. Swasey had you know

24:24

his normal yard signs and then he

24:27

had Tom Swasey stance with Israel yard

24:29

signs and those were the two options

24:31

that voters had. It was very clear

24:33

this was something he was taken seriously.

24:36

It's he was not going to let

24:38

himself be outflanked by an opponent that

24:40

he knew was going to be using

24:43

that angles to. You know that The greatest?

24:45

agree? Yeah. I'm interested also

24:47

in what's this district is

24:49

and helpful case study as

24:51

democrats criticism as side and

24:53

over at handling it's and

24:55

over there Israel Hamas for

24:57

it is a unique district

24:59

in a whole bunch of

25:01

ways that that areas that

25:03

high population and jewish voters

25:05

is is one as many.

25:08

That. Makes it again. Maybe

25:11

a better harbinger for. The

25:13

Us House in Twenty Twenty. Four which

25:15

those to New York. Than that.

25:18

Based attached. To.

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Of the bunch. Sprints is also the

26:41

axle founder of character of venture fund

26:43

for early stage startups. How and Why

26:45

did you start using your own teams?

26:47

In this position of thinking i don't

26:49

want to be doing stuff online to

26:51

thinking now when I do a in

26:53

person was a site. where did he

26:55

use Bureau even though we're on the

26:57

same room because that's a better way

26:59

for us to get to sort them

27:01

as investors were basically investing in. Her

27:03

ability to solve problems were saying. We

27:05

see this group of people who can

27:07

be able to solve. A problem in

27:09

a really great Winfrey value By doing

27:12

it actually you need to give people

27:14

the tools that can help them make

27:16

decisions of them, collaborate of them visualizing,

27:18

see things in a different way And

27:20

Mural does all those things. So to

27:22

me at least as an investor I'm

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thinking steer the team the tools that

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are going to help them. Saying that

27:29

urgent need for the most brighten their

27:31

their skills as smartphone drawing of it's

27:33

hospitalists. What

27:35

kind of data do we

27:37

have? We been talking about

27:40

broader seems here but about

27:42

turn out specifically who turned

27:44

out. I know that we have it

27:46

was low. Actual a day of

27:48

vote totals I'm still waiting to see

27:50

from the Board of Elections in Nassau.

27:52

they were see this to let it

27:54

out by I I have the Sensei

27:57

it was much lower than expected even

27:59

for. a special election, which is,

28:01

of course, notoriously low

28:03

turnout. I'm curious to see

28:05

how many Asian Americans

28:07

voted, especially in Queens. Swazi

28:10

deployed a lot of strong

28:12

surrogates. In fact,

28:14

even partnered up with AAPI

28:16

Victory Fund, who did mailers

28:18

that linked Trump to

28:20

Santos to Mazze in Hindi,

28:23

as well, for

28:25

the South Asian voters in the

28:27

district. And I think that South

28:29

Asian and East Asian and Asian

28:31

American voters broadly are kind of

28:33

underlooked in some of these national

28:35

stories about voting blocs that matter.

28:37

They're just, I think, often a

28:40

sideswipe to just all other minorities,

28:42

non-white voters. But if you've ever

28:44

been to Queens, this is a

28:46

sizable, impactful voting bloc

28:48

here. Right. I think

28:50

it approaches 20 percent or something

28:52

like that of the district of

28:55

Asian descent. And look,

28:57

I think one of the things that

28:59

made Swazi such an attractive pick is

29:01

because he has this demonstrated history of

29:04

retail politics. And he really subscribes to

29:06

an older school method

29:08

of politicking that means

29:11

that he is very attentive to kind of different

29:13

voting blocs and kind of

29:15

the different ethnic communities in the district.

29:17

I thought it was fascinating to see.

29:20

There was a weekend recently where he

29:22

was kind of posting his daily routine.

29:26

And in the span of one kind of

29:28

morning and afternoon, he did that rally with

29:31

Pillup about the hostages held by

29:33

Hamas in Gaza. Then he went

29:35

to a dim sum. He went to a Korean

29:37

church. He went to a Tibetan lunch.

29:40

And he finished the day off with a meeting

29:42

with Indian leaders at an Indian restaurant in Queens.

29:46

So he really made an effort not

29:48

to let anyone feel

29:50

like they weren't being spoken to

29:53

across the district. We

29:55

Have over 78,000 people voted early,

29:57

either by mail or in person.

30:00

The bourgeoisie and mighty hit social and

30:02

the fields to push out voters to

30:04

vote early. but of course we know

30:06

I typically those votes are going to

30:08

break. Democrat. And there seem

30:10

to be at least nip at the beginning half

30:12

of the night right before those votes pour in.

30:14

From the early vote for about a week, lot

30:16

of them. Favored. Swasey and and

30:19

I think that especially with all those

30:21

whether to the that the but be

30:23

much ballyhooed about storms, having over seventy

30:25

thousand people take advantage of early voting

30:27

in New York and be able to

30:29

have easy access to the voting precincts

30:31

definitely helped him in the end. Here.

30:34

And all things considered, I think.

30:37

That lot to turn out like because.

30:39

Of the reasons we keep going over

30:41

as hard to make a big conclusion

30:43

about that, Whether it's because you know

30:45

she wasn't, maybe if she had embraced

30:47

Trump more, maybe like Trump supporters sort

30:49

of them. I I don't. Now the

30:51

keep coming back to this idea for

30:54

me, that. The election.

30:57

Preserves a lot of the status

30:59

quo. It reaffirms what democrats having

31:01

doing in order to win this

31:03

kind of district. it reaffirms or

31:06

publicans have been doing to be

31:08

competitive in a bag and district

31:10

and do unique circumstances that explains

31:12

the margins night. So. It

31:15

was a super and thing like Sen

31:17

it was at any acts as a

31:19

some of these primary race as were

31:21

that hasn't been quite as much to

31:23

say and the presidential race ah it

31:25

was really interesting to hear different candidates

31:27

and introduce themselves and hear about different

31:29

issues that made it like not just

31:31

nationalized as it is that like how

31:34

nationalists is the fact local populations it

31:36

was. Really nice.

31:38

It's a kind of move our attention to that,

31:40

but now I do. You think we go back

31:42

to the status quo again? According

31:44

to the former President breaking News

31:47

here the reason why. Most.

31:49

People have lost was us. I'll quote

31:51

a very foolish woman muzzy molests a

31:54

pillow up running a race for she

31:56

didn't endorse me and tried to straddle

31:58

the sense when she would have easily

32:01

one to. She understood the anything about

32:03

modern day politics in America, so that's

32:05

the take from Queens man, Donald Trump.

32:08

So. Do you think that. My

32:11

the pill up to that has won.

32:14

A conventional republican primary.

32:16

In that districts and second

32:18

question do you think. That

32:21

New York republicans who could

32:24

face a pass reelection race.

32:27

The redistricting thing? just a reminder

32:30

for every one that's There is

32:32

a very high likelihood that the

32:34

congressional maps will be redrawn in

32:36

New York before November. Sell this

32:38

could change by. Is

32:41

it concerning? For.

32:43

Republicans running and biden districts.

32:46

These freshmen Republicans in New

32:48

York Knicks fans who might

32:50

need to run with some

32:52

distance. From. Trump in order

32:54

to win reelection. I'm in

32:57

Twenty Twenty Two Saga. It's hard. That.

33:00

Camera. Quality matters. I mean maybe

33:03

Canada quality matters less. In.

33:05

A presidential election year because everyone is

33:07

turning out for the top of the

33:09

ticket anyway and there just aren't that

33:11

many split ticket voters. and so if

33:13

people are going to be turning off

33:15

for Trump, they're voting for the Republican.

33:17

But like just and twenty twenty two

33:19

Trump interest A bunch of people who

33:21

are bad habit of them lost their

33:23

reserves and honestly all the composition of

33:25

the we're about in congress right now

33:27

wouldn't be happening because had they not

33:29

run the candidates republicans would have majority

33:31

in the senate and they would have

33:33

a larger than five see. Majority in

33:35

the House. So this entire situation

33:38

is because of Donald Trump. The

33:41

I just think it's important to. The

33:43

act as all the difference is that

33:45

we're talking about in this district of

33:47

all the way this race with unique.

33:49

Let's really focus in on the fact

33:51

that these two candidates. Were.

33:54

Hit by the local party to be the strongest.

33:56

Candidates in a general Acts and it's Taped

33:58

Did not. Face and electorate. That and

34:00

did not face a competitive primary.

34:02

The offing pushes candidates to get

34:04

the far left and far as.

34:07

A can we talk about? I feel

34:10

like the biggest A holes in the

34:12

room. we have an address yet is

34:14

our content creating Boss Sword Santos who

34:16

is now doing back of the napkin

34:19

math on Twitter or maybe auditioning for

34:21

a job at Five Thirty Eight. Arm

34:23

and see. Seriously, didn't come up with

34:25

this election off right like me. What

34:28

money can be Put money on my

34:30

to the Cameo price for tomorrow? What?

34:32

Perfect it. Is he gonna run? I.

34:34

Think he raised negative money and

34:36

his last quarter and congress for

34:38

tough place to start from. I.

34:41

Think that voters saw Santos

34:43

as such an aberration. He.

34:46

Didn't stick when democrats tried

34:48

to use him as a

34:50

car. join this special license

34:53

I think. Voters

34:55

understood that Republicans were just as duped

34:57

as everyone else was about who he

34:59

really you know turned out to be

35:02

in South. What I.

35:05

Heard in my reporting was that's the

35:07

candidates and and they you know that

35:09

the players here looked at you know

35:11

he. Could. We use George

35:13

Santos effectively in this election and

35:15

it didn't play because he was

35:17

so far afield bright. The things

35:19

he was doing ah were so

35:22

crazy it's they voters didn't think

35:24

of him as that the republicans

35:26

or Santos. They thought of him

35:28

as that crazy guys shore Santos

35:30

and south. He exists kind of

35:32

outside of partisanship in a way

35:34

that made it less effective to

35:36

do I a Republicans based on

35:38

the fact that he too was

35:41

was a republican. A

35:43

I guess he was both his own boat

35:45

and his own icebergs in a way for

35:47

us as as as as they anti it's

35:49

the entire. Story all all and one

35:51

person. Swasey. Also said that

35:53

he can't see get stance on somebody you

35:55

don't know that wow like that and then

35:58

he that was trying to give one. Way

36:00

towards the and tells was inserted into

36:02

this race was like well last time

36:04

you aren't so sure about with me

36:07

you know exactly what your game because

36:09

you've already had three terms of it's

36:11

we call it the devil you know

36:13

versus the devil you don't know and

36:16

arms of people and the is kind

36:18

of situations. Go with the devil they

36:20

know where to save her Vegas gamble.

36:23

And Pillow played into that be

36:25

with with burger sheltered nature of

36:27

her campaign. i think there's a

36:29

universe in which she was much

36:31

more out there. he was doing

36:34

more press, more interviews, more retail

36:36

campaigning it's ah and and was

36:38

more effectively able to robot the

36:40

the notion that she was hiding.

36:42

but she had something to hide

36:44

bias see, Ran the race

36:47

the she did and that allowed

36:49

democrats to press the message or

36:51

implicitly about Santos and contrast it

36:53

with the the very deep ties

36:55

that Swasey has to the District.

36:57

As I will say to you know

36:59

I interviewed about Swasey Is and Pill

37:01

Up and my parents are both still

37:04

voters in the districts and on it.

37:06

You know in our chitchat before and

37:08

after smart it it really ask me

37:10

so much about it but Swasey would

37:12

not hang up the phone until and

37:14

unless I actually gave him my folks

37:17

contact information because he was added that

37:19

many times he asked me. it's because

37:21

he was adamant on reaching out to

37:23

them. Himself to make a pitch

37:25

to try to get them on to turn

37:27

out for. Him my parents Very

37:30

Swasey. Skeptical? They're actually it's democrat,

37:32

republican swing voters and immigrants, both

37:34

of them from different places in

37:36

the world. So said interesting cross

37:38

section. Of of New York. three. Voter

37:40

and I thought that it's so tiny

37:43

and anecdotal, but it's he was doing

37:45

that with me. Maybe he was doing

37:47

that with other people to and those

37:49

are the little things that matter. those

37:51

personal touches as I do think that.

37:54

Is is meet some from someone from New Yorker.

37:56

They're very prideful. I. Want no comments

37:58

about me talking right now. The We're

38:00

Very Proud A movie. Was so I'm

38:02

obsessed with loyalty reza that ring

38:04

a bell the any other New

38:06

York famously or politician you might

38:08

know and. Having. It be

38:10

your guy. Your. Person whether or

38:13

not you hate your guts. but they know

38:15

you when you know them and you can

38:17

fight in the same schoolyard. I think that

38:19

matters a lot taller voters. Wow.

38:22

And other really playing into stereotypes

38:24

and I think it's have to

38:26

go to bed and I just

38:28

want to back to come. I

38:30

was reminded of this whole Sawgrass

38:32

and one of our first podcast

38:34

Officers in Twenty Twenty Three was

38:36

called What The Debt Ceiling and

38:38

George Centers His career has in

38:40

common. I guess who fought with

38:42

North South as an answer to?

38:44

I don't remember, but I think

38:46

we can see that now. Both

38:48

have been thoroughly raised. Ah oh.

38:50

Yeah did you to come up with. Are

38:53

you guys her dad answer Dead sounds

38:55

as. If like midnight tail. Although

38:57

although I'm server, Andy Cohen is

38:59

talking to someone at Bravo about

39:01

having him around us fall and

39:03

just turning it into a reality

39:05

tv show. How. And

39:08

needs to be hosting the debates. That's may

39:10

I won't I won't die on the. Only

39:12

way trouble sarah that this was his answers

39:14

to be to the trump fired and debates.

39:16

All of them suffer too. Far

39:19

Or it's say do Burning

39:21

Jacob and we're. Think you

39:23

think you're happy Valentine's Day. Every

39:25

white. House, you

39:27

know all. My Valentine's to de. Fazio.

39:31

And your mind think you'll get alerts

39:33

will mean. For

39:36

that that that's of. my

39:39

name is they would return each hours in

39:41

the control room or producers are same mccann

39:43

and cameron for tvs and are intern as

39:45

jail average can touch my emailing us and

39:47

podcast at five thirty.com you know of course

39:49

we just have any questions or comments if

39:51

you a fan of the show me was

39:53

reading or review in the apple podcasts store

39:56

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39:58

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