0:01

Is Travis Kelsey an A-list

0:03

celebrity? Absolutely not. I

0:05

don't think so. Who's like an

0:08

A-list celebrity athlete? LeBron,

0:11

Michael Jordan. Tom Brady. So

0:13

no, Travis Kelsey isn't there. I think that's

0:15

fair, yeah. Yeah. Okay. Is

0:17

Tanya Harding an A-list celebrity? No.

0:20

No. Of all of the

0:22

names to pull. I know. I know.

0:24

Such a big jump. Hello,

0:36

and welcome to the FiveThirtyEight Politics

0:38

Podcast. I'm Galen Druck. Happy Monday.

0:40

Yes, we are going to talk

0:42

about Taylor Swift today. Not

0:44

the new album that she announced at the Grammys last night. You'll

0:47

have to join me on my underground

0:49

podcast or something in order to get that

0:51

news. But we're going to

0:53

talk about the way that Taylor

0:55

Swift has entered the political news cycle.

0:57

So reportedly Biden's

0:59

campaign is seeking her endorsement.

1:03

And also folks have been talking

1:05

about the purported effect that she

1:07

and Travis Kelsey could have on

1:09

the 2024 race if they

1:11

choose, or she in particular chooses to

1:13

endorse. Seriously, look what you

1:15

made me do, conspiracy theorists of Twitter.

1:20

Good one, Galen. Nice. Nice.

1:24

We are also going to head back

1:26

to the presidential primary trail. There are

1:28

several contests between now and the South Carolina

1:30

Republican primary at the end of the month.

1:32

Two different Nevada races, the U.S. Virgin Islands.

1:34

Democrats had their primary in South Carolina over

1:36

the weekend. So does any of this matter?

1:38

We're going to let you know. Also,

1:41

the latest campaign finance reports are

1:43

in. Biden ended 2023 with more

1:45

cash on hand than Trump. And

1:48

two Trump PACs spent a combined $50

1:50

million in legal fees last year. We'll

1:52

dig into those numbers, plus some takeaways

1:54

from how much money candidates have been raising

1:57

in Senate races. Here with me to discuss

1:59

it all is Paul. reporter Leah Skarnum. Welcome

2:01

to the podcast, Leah. Hi, happy Monday.

2:04

Also here with us is Senior Elections Analyst

2:06

Nathaniel Rakeh, chain Nathaniel. Hey, Galen. I would

2:08

just like everybody out there listening to know

2:10

that we have already been recording for 24

2:12

minutes because we had an extended, extended conversation

2:14

about what an A-list celebrity is before this,

2:17

and we did not come up with a

2:19

data-driven answer, I am sorry to say, despite

2:21

my best efforts. Specifically whether or not Travis

2:23

Kelsey is an A-list celebrity. So folks, if

2:25

you have data pointing in one way, in

2:27

one direction or another, we'll be happy to

2:29

hear it. And you didn't miss

2:31

anything by us not recording. This

2:34

is 24 minutes of my life, I am not getting back. It

2:37

is, it was recorded. It will forever

2:39

be a secret 24-minute podcast. Also

2:43

here with us, we have a special guest today, 538

2:45

Politics Podcast Intern, Jayla Everett. Welcome

2:48

to the podcast, Jayla. Hello,

2:50

excited to be here. We're so

2:52

excited to have you. Clearly you've already had quite

2:54

an effect on the podcast just by our first

2:56

25-minute conversation to begin with. Anyway, so Jayla, you're

2:59

going to be joining us for the first segment

3:01

because you have some thoughts on

3:03

the whole Taylor Swift thing. So

3:06

let's get into it. And we're going to

3:08

start with a good or bad use of

3:10

polling example, and then we can widen out

3:12

the conversation into what I guess we can

3:14

call conspiracy theories. But honestly, I think that

3:16

word might even be giving them too much

3:18

credit. So a recent morning

3:20

consult poll found that between July and

3:23

December of last year, the share of

3:25

Gen Z and millennial women with favorable

3:27

opinions of the NFL grew 11 percentage

3:29

points from 53% to 64%. 64% is

3:31

now the highest ever level of favorable

3:33

views on record for that

3:39

cohort. In fact, the poll shows that

3:42

the NFL's net favorability among women is

3:44

growing the fastest out of all of

3:46

the competitor leagues post pandemic. Morning

3:49

consult credits Taylor Swift with this

3:51

Rise. July of last year is when

3:53

rumors began that Taylor Swift and Kansas

3:55

City Chiefs Tight end Travis Kelce were

3:58

dating and morning consult notes that. Ever

4:00

since these dating rumors started, that

4:02

also young women viewership of the

4:04

league games has increased. As

4:07

we often say, data can tell us

4:09

what. But. It can't necessarily tell us

4:11

why it's so is the conclusion that

4:13

despite in favor ability for the Nfl

4:15

amongst young women it's is t were

4:17

swept induced a good or bad use

4:19

a polling jail you that attack us

4:22

off with this one. So.

4:24

I'm gonna say it's sad, it's a is

4:26

a pulling in the reason I'm saying less.

4:28

Prominent strongest stars and galaxies. This

4:30

is that first they want to

4:32

passes. By saying that I think understand

4:35

the terrorist list is season international paths. I

4:37

see that Sensei said it's citizen of Family

4:39

last day and she also has two hundred

4:41

and eighty million followers on Instagram. Still list

4:43

has a big influence and it's clear that

4:46

obviously Swift these are probably tuning in. It's

4:48

it's Games says here what's yes the said

4:50

it's hear her and Sir on Travis Tell.

4:54

You think this when it's when you're looking

4:56

at the data and your senior source and

4:58

that's Taylor Swift is writing this. They don't

5:00

align with the grass and think that when

5:03

he sees. How it's been on and

5:05

afford track the Nfl favorability among women

5:07

has with already growing before the these

5:09

rumors even start as we see a

5:11

jump in February, Twenty Twenty Two which

5:13

is obviously probably has the Superbowl so

5:15

we also see another jump in August,

5:17

Twenty Twenty Two and even closer a

5:19

little bit after February have a younger

5:21

female audience saying that they have a

5:23

favorable view and I think that saying

5:25

that Hillary contributing to this is a

5:27

huge part of it but I see

5:29

like it's more like the cherry on

5:31

top. it's cause the sprinkles. And

5:34

there's more underneath. And there's other factors that are

5:36

contributing. To it so many go with that is

5:38

a polite okay all right. Let's. Go everyone

5:40

else on record and then I want

5:42

to ask more about what might be

5:44

underlying those trans So Nathaniel good about

5:46

use of polling. Yeah, I agree

5:48

with July, it's a bad you supposing, And

5:50

it's because he can see the trend alongside

5:52

all adults and like women in general. And

5:55

like all of these numbers are going up

5:57

and have been going up basically since twenty

5:59

twenty into. The only one month pandemic

6:01

obviously was distracted people. It's been a

6:03

gradual upward trajectory, and like the Nfl

6:05

is just generally getting more popular. And

6:07

that means that it's game or popular

6:10

among women. and among millennial. And and

6:12

the women, Because those people are not

6:14

aliens, they are part of the broader

6:16

population. And so yeah, the trend seems.

6:18

Consistently higher I'm I'll also note that

6:21

the data gets noisier as you get

6:23

into more specific groups. There's actually a

6:25

ton of noise and been bouncing around

6:27

among these costs. Tabs among Gens The

6:29

and Millennia Women's Morning consult that a

6:31

good amount of cherry picking here. where

6:33

they said gently millennial women with a

6:35

row opinions of the Nfl grew from

6:37

fifty three percent to sixty four percent.

6:39

They chose a conveniently low points for

6:41

fifty three percent and can really high

6:43

point for sixty four per cents. But

6:45

then actually after had sixty four percent

6:47

December if traffic down. Like randomly to

6:49

like fifty six this percent in January

6:52

and like this is now January would

6:54

be when the Kansas City Chiefs are

6:56

literally getting ready to go to the

6:58

Superbowl. Yeah like so it's pretty clear

7:00

to me this is just like noise

7:02

and like when you to take the

7:04

smallest samples are going a revealed larger

7:06

margin of error and than numbers are

7:08

gonna bounce around a lot the like

7:10

overall trend is upward but again that's

7:12

something that's been happening for years. Yeah,

7:15

I agree, it's an upward trend for

7:17

every one is. Honestly,

7:19

it he added a little infantilizing or something

7:21

to be like oh look, young women are

7:24

not interested in the Nfl at at all

7:26

because of Taylor Swift. When the actual trend

7:28

is that everyone is becoming more interested in

7:30

the Nfl like. I. Don't know. I

7:32

can't speak for Janvier millennial women, but

7:35

as a kind of offensive. I

7:37

mean, I was in, I guess. He

7:39

may have heard from a cone of

7:41

silence like know. People

7:43

with is this does not exist you

7:46

suppose a these be there at all

7:48

that as a faster he said that

7:50

as and that's okay so it's been

7:52

going up. Since. Militancy:

7:55

The conveniently well placed set off

7:57

like there was a fight. Among

8:00

everyone and I'd savvy Larry twenty Seven

8:02

seem pretty similar now as eleven. February

8:04

Twenty Seventh. Yeah, I think like it's

8:06

technically higher now by like a point

8:09

or two, but like when I go

8:11

on February Twenty Seventeen were album with

8:13

Taylor has to suffer. an apartment with

8:15

a better question is like who was

8:17

playing in the Superbowl? That yeah. And

8:20

I don't know who was playing in

8:22

the Superbowl that year. I don't care

8:24

who, something. Exercise.

8:28

Now that in February authorities have had

8:30

seen the reason why there was a

8:32

spade as much more likely to be

8:34

because of the teams the Superbowl than

8:36

because of whatever. Taylor Swift? What do

8:38

I actually think? that? If. It

8:40

looks like the down slope from that

8:42

I think actually was because of the

8:44

National anthem. A new in controversy and

8:46

twenty seven teams was causing a lot

8:48

of republicans to have a negative view

8:50

of the Nfl which I think is

8:52

probably recovered on the ring. Haven't seen

8:54

the or didn't cross stamps. So interesting

8:57

and the does make me wonder what it

8:59

was like why they started in February. Twenty

9:01

seventeen? I don't know if you have that.

9:03

Data. About like it looks like and our

9:05

bras like. It starts out and a really high

9:07

points it draft and then it's been slowly growing

9:09

to about where it was in February twenty or

9:12

haven't seen. but what was it like before February

9:14

twenty seventh? he was that a high. Point or

9:16

that a low point you know if this part

9:18

of as a bigger drop at idle now. Have

9:21

a so. Jail or what might

9:23

be some other explanations apart from

9:25

Taylor Swift for what's going on here.

9:28

The. Think a lot of it to be attributed

9:30

to social media. First, focusing on two aspects

9:32

to the first would just. Be in general

9:34

the Nfl Social media strategies great.

9:36

Now the Nfl has twenty miles

9:39

pluto. The million dollars on incident

9:41

in Spokane Point One million followers

9:43

on a path self. Soothe the clear

9:45

influence in the weeks that they have that the

9:47

way that they're using their reefs and expanding it

9:49

is through their contact and I think that when

9:51

you going to their pages you're not seeing things

9:53

like though this is a commentary on a gamer.

9:56

Hear some stats that nobody cares about That is

9:58

sad you're seeing more things that are. Interacting

10:00

with the fans, it showing jokes the

10:02

players are telling. On sidelines you're seeing

10:04

the com it says new racist players

10:07

outset ones are tens or they're turning.

10:09

Whatever they're doing in the sidelines, has

10:11

their victory damn for a touchdown and

10:13

say turning into. A meme that aligns

10:15

with wherever song is trying to eggs. And

10:18

the reason I'm saying the best interviewed sewage is

10:20

because it might seem like the small effort but

10:22

in general it's making the Nfl seem more approachable

10:24

and it's reaching out to those audience as so

10:26

if you're someone who cares about fashion or you're

10:29

just in tune with trends it's saying oh well

10:31

this is a place for you to com it's

10:33

and enjoy this with a see it like it

10:35

doesn't have to be that this is a man's

10:37

game of football and you're here and you been

10:40

here or if you're minister new you're out. It's

10:42

not that at all saying we want you to

10:44

enjoy the slip us another up with the social

10:46

media that I think it's helping. The

10:48

Nfl really tough into a younger

10:51

female audience is who the players

10:53

are. The thanks This is business.

10:55

As voter yeah we're back to tell us

10:57

rep are when his. Know that it's

10:59

get say that he gets in a

11:01

different way because Taylor Swift is helping

11:03

with the chief. So twenty years thirty

11:05

two teams and the Nfl influencers like

11:07

how it for all the seating Braxton

11:10

Barriers who plays for the Miami Dolphins

11:12

but he also has an influencer breeds

11:14

on tic thought of six point four

11:16

million followers and so even though for

11:18

her she says making maybe like a

11:20

get ready with me video to go

11:22

see my boyfriend games what you're seeing

11:24

in the comments are people think I'm

11:26

in a dolphin fan now I want

11:28

to support or I saw you on

11:30

screen during halftime That goes along. I

11:32

think with the trend of female audiences

11:34

follow his a sport so what that's

11:36

what we're seeing would say where but

11:38

within authors it out across influencers and

11:40

outs are all that is just one

11:42

example. There's plenty of others, Allison foods

11:44

and there's another an influencer. Her name's

11:46

Tatiana will blow blurred in see also

11:48

is contributing and make them out contact

11:50

and I think that's helping in general

11:52

with favorability bung the teams can submitting

11:55

everything more accessible so I think it's

11:57

Killers. Last I think it's Nfl. Trying to

11:59

read for on. And I also

12:01

think it's an iphone Girlfriends. This

12:03

is interesting because it felt like the

12:05

Annabel was really have hurt or in

12:08

for a moment like over the past

12:10

decade with concussions, ads, the long term

12:12

health consequences of that, the back and

12:15

forth over kneeling it's it seems like

12:17

at least in Paris social media has

12:19

helped me to the Nfl look sign

12:21

here and better at least in in

12:24

young people's mindsets. While we're on this

12:26

topic, I do want to talk about

12:28

the broader influence of Taylor Swift. So

12:30

a New York Times article came out

12:33

over. The past week suggesting that the

12:35

Biden campaigns biggest target for an endorsement was

12:37

from Taylor Swift herself. After the catch, it

12:39

was clear that the Kansas City Chiefs were

12:41

heading to the Superbowl. It seemed like there

12:44

was some conspiracy theories among the on right

12:46

wing Twitter. That was something along the lines

12:48

of oh no, they're going to win the

12:51

Superbowl and this like you know, perfect couple

12:53

A Taylor Swift and Travis tells the are

12:55

going to endorse Joe Biden and that's like

12:57

there's this. I mean in some places you

13:00

can even read about a broader conspiracy were

13:02

like they've been put. Here to promote

13:04

vaccines and of the democrats and

13:06

all kinds of stuff, right? So

13:08

we don't really need to address

13:10

of those conspiracy theories public. Does

13:13

it actually seem lights as of somebody

13:15

like Taylor Swift's has the influence to

13:18

a fact? An American Presidential

13:20

election in Any way. Remember

13:23

land beyond saying. T V endorsed

13:25

Hillary Clinton and Twenty Six Team

13:27

how the concert for her. I

13:29

believe that the does the election.

13:31

Dot. that's why we're in the final

13:33

year as of a two term Clinton

13:35

presidency we asked. Me

13:38

to. Endorse and can matter.

13:40

It's depending on who the endorsement

13:42

it's from Sites I don't think

13:45

they matter in terms of mass.

13:47

Support. From a celebrity's

13:49

fan base. and like

13:52

in Michigan and Pennsylvania,

13:54

like that Nine. Now.

13:57

Yeah. i mean it's worth noting that Taylor

14:00

Swift has endorsed Joe Biden before. She

14:02

endorsed him in 2020, and I actually

14:04

went and checked, and his polling numbers

14:06

went up 0.5%. Could

14:09

it have some influence? Sure. Maybe it pushes some

14:11

people over the fence, but I agree with Leah

14:14

that I don't think a lot of people are

14:16

waiting on Taylor Swift to get their political advice

14:18

from it. There is also some

14:20

evidence that voter registration spiked after she

14:22

was like, everybody, go register to vote.

14:24

But we don't know if those people

14:26

would have registered to vote anyway in

14:28

advance of a highly contested election. So

14:31

just in general, the impact of

14:33

endorsements, particularly in general election, in

14:35

a primary, absolutely can matter. There

14:37

is evidence that Oprah significantly helped

14:39

Barack Obama in the 2008 primaries

14:42

against Hillary Clinton. But in a

14:44

general election, when people already have,

14:48

90% of people already have a party that they are

14:50

basically wedded to, it's just not going to move the

14:52

needle very much. Yeah, it's like

14:54

the difference between Taylor Swift coming in and being

14:56

like, here's my new friend, who none of you

14:59

have heard of. And I'm going to give him

15:01

a platform on social media. My friend Joe, you

15:04

might not have heard of him. That could

15:06

bring somebody into a race. But this is

15:08

not the moment for an

15:11

endorsement to have a major impact. Everybody knows

15:13

who Joe Biden is. We've seen

15:15

this for years, like with the MTV,

15:17

Get Out to Vote. There are, I

15:19

think, probably the positive effects in terms

15:22

of voter turnout when

15:24

celebrities try to get people there

15:27

are major efforts to get people to go out and

15:29

register to vote. But that's

15:31

very different from endorsing a sitting

15:34

president who's also a former vice

15:36

president. Yeah. All right,

15:38

JLo, final thoughts here. Just in

15:40

general, never underestimate the Swifties.

15:42

However, a whole election, I don't

15:45

know. I don't think that they're, I think

15:47

that they're going to do what they were always going to

15:49

do. And I also think that they probably

15:51

align with Taylor's beliefs, which is what causes

15:53

her to have that fan base in general.

15:55

So I'm going to say now. Well,

15:59

I'm curious as. as, not to put

16:01

you on the spot as our collegiate correspondent, but

16:03

as a senior in college, maybe who's closer to

16:05

the demographic of people that were not that were,

16:07

you know, not that were that far out of

16:09

college, but you're going to be closer to the

16:11

closer to the demographic of people that we're talking

16:13

about. I mean, has this conversation permeated at all?

16:15

And people like, wow, that's so dumb that people

16:18

think we're going to vote a certain way because

16:20

of Taylor Swift, or do you think people are

16:22

more like, hey, like, oh, Taylor Swift's interested in

16:24

the presidential election? This has me talking about the

16:26

presidential election. I think that there's

16:28

just a lot of fatigue and general surrounding talks

16:30

of politics. But

16:33

I don't think that what's going to spark it

16:35

as Taylor Swift. I think it's more so the

16:38

issues is the fact that we're graduating. A lot

16:40

of people are worried about the economy. I

16:42

don't think anyone's holding their breath for Taylor

16:44

Swift, but I do think that they do

16:46

a little repost if they saw that Taylor

16:48

Swift did enforce Biden. So that's something. All

16:51

right. Well, thank you so much for joining us today, Jayla. Thank

16:54

you for having me. All right. Up next,

16:56

we're going to move on to the primaries. We've

17:01

got a bit of a lull in

17:03

the primary calendar before South Carolina's Republican

17:05

contest with a few minor races. So

17:07

we're going to talk about whether or

17:09

not any of them really matter. And

17:11

joining us to discuss is senior elections

17:13

analyst Jeffrey Skelly. Welcome, Jeff. Hey,

17:16

Galen. Thanks for having me on. Always

17:18

great to have you. So the Nevada

17:20

primary is on Tuesday. That is tomorrow.

17:22

We're recording on Monday. Then the Nevada

17:25

caucus is on Thursday. The U.S. Virgin

17:27

Islands will also caucus on Thursday. And

17:29

then, of course, there was the South

17:32

Carolina Democratic primary this past weekend. Let's

17:35

start with Nevada. Jeffrey,

17:37

why are we having a primary on

17:39

Tuesday and a caucus on Thursday? Right.

17:42

So basically, the situation is that up until

17:44

2021, Nevada had not had a like

17:50

a state primary law for presidential

17:52

primaries since they used

17:54

one in 1996. They

17:56

had gotten rid of that law, but they brought it back

17:59

Because of. Organ Concerns is democratic

18:01

run government and Twenty Twenty One

18:03

Day passes part of our whole

18:06

series of of laws they pass

18:08

to try to ease in, make

18:10

it more easier for people to

18:12

participate and sword the the view

18:15

and the shifts among democrats towards

18:17

wanting primaries eyes set of caucuses

18:19

as a more sort of inclusive

18:21

way of participation. Primaries have almost

18:24

always have higher turnout the Caucasus

18:26

because they're just. More. Readily

18:28

accessible to voters, the of longer

18:30

polling hours usually have an absentee

18:32

voting option there. There are many

18:34

reasons for this. So and Twenty

18:36

Twenty One Nevada implements this new

18:39

presidential preference primary law so it's

18:41

available to democrats and republicans to

18:43

be used. In fact that I

18:45

believe it's if if is two

18:47

or more candidates file for it.

18:49

The. State holds one arm regardless of

18:51

whether the parties are don't actually use

18:54

it to allocate their diligence and so

18:56

that's the thing is, you have soared

18:58

the state run option versus the party

19:00

run option because Republicans and a bad

19:02

I wanted to keep using caucuses of

19:05

as they had previously done. To

19:07

to allocate National Convention delegates

19:09

So you in the end

19:12

end up with the state

19:14

run primary for democrats and

19:16

republicans on Tuesday. But. Then

19:18

Republicans are caucus sing on Thursday

19:20

evening and that's the actual contest

19:22

the will allocate Republican national Delegates

19:24

said the primary and effect becomes

19:26

what is often called a beauty

19:28

contest which is an election the

19:30

has no bearing on delegate allocation

19:32

arm and really really no no

19:34

impact on that front although you

19:36

know you could be headlines out

19:38

of it and and various take

19:40

away and there will probably be

19:42

more people who vote in that

19:44

primary didn't vote in the caucuses.

19:47

Yeah. so we're in a situation where

19:49

nikki haley has filed for the primary

19:51

of but not the caucus and donald

19:53

trump has filed for a caucus but

19:55

not the primary so we already know

19:58

that donald trump will get all of

20:00

the delegates. Oh no, wait,

20:02

Leah says maybe not. Leah says maybe not.

20:04

I forgot because you can cast a ballot

20:06

for no preference. There are a few things. There

20:08

are a few wrinkles. Yeah. So in

20:11

the caucus, there's another candidate on

20:13

the ballot. It's not just Trump.

20:15

It's Binkley. Ryan

20:17

Binkley. Right, right, right. Sorry.

20:20

There's Ryan Binkley and there

20:22

is also you can choose

20:24

no preference. Only in

20:26

the primary, not in the caucus.

20:29

Only in the primary. So which is

20:31

to say that Nikki Haley won't necessarily

20:33

win the primary. No preference could win

20:36

the primary. Nikki Haley could lose the

20:38

primary to quote none

20:40

of the above. None of these candidates

20:42

is the technical language on the ballot.

20:45

Nevada is the only state in

20:47

the country that has a permanent

20:50

ballot option where you

20:52

have all the candidates and then it says none

20:54

of these candidates. God bless Nevada.

20:56

And so voters, pro-Trump

20:59

voters in the primary could cast a

21:01

ballot in the primary, but

21:03

to sort of say, look, I'm not supporting anybody

21:05

who's on this ballot. And it's basically Haley. You

21:07

have Tim Scott. He's not in the race anymore.

21:09

You have Mike Pence, who's not in the race

21:11

anymore. And then you have a handful of other

21:14

minor candidates. They could say, well,

21:16

I don't want to vote for any of these people because

21:18

I favor Trump. So I'm going to vote for none of

21:20

these candidates. In fact, that is basically

21:22

the, that's been encouraged by some Republican

21:24

officials like Republican governor Joe Lombardo has

21:26

said, look, I'm going to be caucusing

21:28

for Trump. And in the primary, I'm going

21:30

to vote none of these candidates because

21:32

I'm supporting Trump. Nikki Haley decided

21:35

to file in the primary. Why

21:37

she did that? Well, most people

21:39

expected Trump to easily win the caucuses,

21:41

right? So I think some, some candidates

21:43

like Pence, Scott and Haley decided it

21:46

wasn't worth filing in the caucuses, which

21:48

costs money to file in. And that

21:50

maybe if you don't participate, maybe it's

21:52

a chance to win something like any

21:54

headlines. If you're in the primary and

21:57

for Haley, it's actually worked out because this is

21:59

sort of. Nevada, you know,

22:01

an uninteresting contest. And so we look ahead to

22:03

South Carolina, which is her home state and where,

22:05

you know, it could be sort of her last

22:07

stand. So I don't know if she

22:09

knew that it would work out quite this neatly, but it

22:11

has in that way. Yeah, it'd be like

22:14

a it's not great if Haley,

22:17

for example, like loses to none of

22:19

these candidates on Tuesday, and then Trump

22:21

wins the caucuses on Thursday,

22:23

even though it doesn't matter,

22:26

because no delegates like if you're

22:28

actually concerned about winning enough

22:30

delegates, like, it makes sense that Haley

22:32

is not going to go all in

22:34

on this Nevada primary, there are

22:36

no delegates allocated through the

22:38

primary itself. But in terms

22:40

of headlines, I don't know, it could be it could

22:42

be tough. Yeah, I actually

22:44

think there's no upside for Haley here.

22:47

Because if she wins the primary, I

22:49

don't think that's newsworthy, because she's the

22:51

only contender who's still on the ballot.

22:53

But if she loses to none of

22:55

these candidates, then that's embarrassing for her.

22:57

And like, it's now been what, two

23:00

weeks since New Hampshire, and she hasn't closed the

23:02

gap in South Carolina polls, she's still trailing Trump

23:04

by about 30 points. And like, we had talked,

23:06

I think, on this podcast about like, is she

23:08

even going to make it to South Carolina? And

23:11

I think some of the like relevant data points

23:13

are like, is she making progress in the polls

23:15

in South Carolina? Does she get embarrassed in Nevada by

23:17

losing to none of these candidates? So like, I don't

23:19

know, I don't think it's crazy to think she could

23:21

drop out this week. Okay, well, we'll

23:23

keep an eye on that. We'll also keep an

23:25

eye on whether none of these candidates or Nikki

23:28

Haley ends up winning. Let's talk

23:30

about another race that just happened

23:33

that was also a beauty contest.

23:35

So Joe Biden won 96%

23:38

of the vote in the South Carolina Democratic primary

23:40

on Saturday, for what it's worth, Marianne Williamson actually

23:42

beat out Dean Phillips, she got 2% of the

23:44

vote, he got 1% of the vote. Now,

23:47

I think we were on watch to

23:49

see Joe Biden's performance in general, just

23:52

as a gauge of enthusiasm, not necessarily,

23:54

well, clearly not as some sort of

23:56

indication of who would win this primary.

23:58

Did we Learn anything from

24:00

this and is a good enough people

24:03

even vote to gauge whether of people

24:05

are enthusiastic, provider or not. I.

24:07

Don't think anyone should make. Any

24:10

attempt at a take away from what

24:12

was essentially and unopposed primary. He

24:14

now been one Ninety six percent you want.

24:17

At least not if you want roughly ninety

24:19

five percent or more in every single county

24:21

and state. So. Obviously

24:23

different counties and South China have different

24:25

demographic breakdowns, and yet this was the

24:27

result across all of them. And like

24:30

one hundred and thirty thousand people voted.

24:32

Whereas and twenty twenty Like five hundred,

24:34

nearly five hundred forty thousand voted. So.

24:38

I just don't think there's really anything to

24:40

say except Joe Biden as the income of

24:42

President. And. Running for

24:44

renomination and. Easily. One

24:47

as we would expect and

24:49

have expected a throughout this

24:51

process. Rather than I'd like to

24:53

give it much more airtime, The. Us

24:55

Virgin Islands. Anyone paying attention

24:57

to arrive whose brother who is campaigning

25:00

of the Europe's has anyone taken the

25:02

opportunity during this dreary first two months

25:04

of the Earth to campaign in the

25:06

Us Virgin Islands? They have nots. Not

25:09

really. it. Is not

25:11

going in person? Ah. Yes,

25:13

So literally just got an email about this. Yeah,

25:15

literally just popped into my inbox in the midst

25:18

of this podcast. Wow, that is like a big

25:20

mistake on behalf of Nicky Him campaign. If you're

25:22

not going to win the nomination, you might as

25:24

well at least get a script for you. As

25:26

hard as I know, I mean yeah, maybe this

25:28

is why you know what? He's gonna hire me

25:31

to run their campaigns, but I tend to do

25:33

things can be daily, sit a gun and person

25:35

I feel like. so it's a it's a very

25:37

small actor and obviously they're only about two thousand

25:39

registered Republicans are in the Virgin Islands and presumably

25:42

fewer of them will also office. Ah I'm

25:44

so like I feel like going in

25:46

person would be a big deal and

25:48

would actually may be seriously sway a

25:51

significant number of voters com and my

25:53

and that actually I think is a

25:55

contest that like if Nikki Haley one

25:57

would get headlines because it was contested.

26:00

That my give now with many delegates is only

26:02

were four delegates so it's quite minimal but kind

26:04

of. As we mentioned like nobody's telling Dell out

26:06

at the state and I'm in a that's twenty

26:08

percent of what New Hampshire is worth. And to

26:10

have said if if the Us Virgin Islands got

26:13

twenty percent of the cupboards are New Hampshire got

26:15

I mean we would all be able to go

26:17

to the Us Virgin Islands. Very guy. Now this

26:19

is where find a long game here now so

26:21

that as as one of the mean primaries and

26:23

twenty eight some Butter Banana Nikki Haley as held

26:26

to including want to hold the Taste is how

26:28

to virtual events there were she's like zooming. In

26:30

to me with people, arm and dad down

26:32

from heaven Help any yes. although obviously their

26:34

stocks are a few days left until the

26:37

the actual hoc sense which are on Thursday

26:39

arm and their stay of the called caucuses.

26:41

but they actually more like a party run

26:43

primary where they're just like designated voting hours.

26:45

It's actually funny to look at the polling

26:47

sites, it's like you know it's like So

26:50

and So's Beach Bar on Sounds sounds like

26:52

a fun fun primary to cover. Or

26:55

so there are some intricacies to pay

26:57

attention to over the next. Couple

26:59

Weeks By focuses mostly on the

27:01

South Carolina primary does point where

27:03

it as you side nathaniel the

27:05

gap between Trump and Haley. Is

27:08

consistently thirty points or more nationally.

27:10

Trump is now polling about seventy

27:12

percent. The gap is larger than

27:14

safety percentage points between Haley and

27:16

Trump. Are we just on dropout

27:18

watch? Is there any more to

27:20

say about the Republican Primary at

27:22

this. Point. Yeah. I

27:24

mean I don't know. I think I can

27:26

say that they are going to stay on

27:29

until the moment that they drop out rate.

27:31

So like I'm not sure I believe that

27:33

sells dagon through South Carolina image has made

27:35

in two weeks so he or she might

27:37

as well keeps holding on. But my gallic

27:39

the the our it's not getting better for

27:42

her in South Carolina and like I do

27:44

I I'm actually really curious because like we

27:46

don't have any pose a Virgin Islands obviously

27:48

such a tiny electorate that now I'm kind

27:50

of posts might put observers are paying attention

27:52

to ah I'm there was a one poll.

27:54

Of the Nevada Primary right Jeffrey that showed none

27:57

of the above leading. That was by a point

27:59

from i wasn't. Know your with and Jon

28:01

Ralston who is and of the Nevada political

28:03

group did not put a lot of credence

28:05

nap whole so there's I think significant uncertainty

28:07

that will happen as he. but I think

28:09

that's what what actually happened to me. know

28:12

via Born. In that case,

28:14

let's move on to the

28:16

latest campaign finance. I.

28:19

Don't really nerdy, but there are actually

28:21

some interesting take ways from the Ftc

28:23

filings that came out last week. Last.

28:27

Week we got a clearer picture

28:29

of the campaign finance or thanks

28:31

to an as he sees thrilling

28:33

guidelines. So it's early, but Joe

28:35

Biden has a slight edge on

28:37

Donald Trump at least in terms

28:39

of cash on can't Find Campaign

28:41

Ended twenty twenty three with about

28:43

forty six million in the bank.

28:45

Trump's campaign had about thirty three

28:48

million. The major outside groups supporting

28:50

the to have finished twenty twenty

28:52

three with roughly even amounts of

28:54

cash. But as twenty four million

28:56

dollars so. We're gonna talk about.

28:58

What? We learn from some of the senate

29:00

races as well which may be had more

29:03

interesting tidbit spice just because this is the

29:05

race of the most people are paying attention

29:07

to and as got plenty of high winds

29:09

does this matter And he does a at

29:11

ten million or so fourteen million gap between.

29:14

Biden. And Trump mean anything at

29:16

this point in terms of fundraisings and

29:18

in terms of but ultimate performance. yeah

29:21

Gail and you know see actually take

29:23

a look at sort of all the

29:25

fund raising vehicles to these candidates have

29:27

cilic joint fundraising committees like the Biden

29:29

Victory, Saunders or what Have You or

29:32

the or the National Committee's The gap

29:34

is bit larger between by than Trump

29:36

is exclude super Pacs on which is

29:38

a bit more complicated and typically outside

29:40

the purview of these as these like

29:42

Se Si groups that are more. connected

29:45

to the candidates biden group including the

29:47

b and c had about one hundred

29:49

and sixty million and a bag of

29:51

the under twenty twenty three whereas trump

29:53

had about seventy million and if you

29:55

add the rnc which is not officially

29:57

backed him yet ah it's is closer

29:59

to So it's

30:01

a somewhat larger gap, but it's

30:04

early. The Republican race

30:06

isn't officially over, and I

30:09

just think that at the end of the day, in

30:12

a presidential election, both parties are

30:14

going to have so much money thrown at

30:16

this race that it becomes difficult. And we

30:18

know, generally speaking, fundraising matters

30:21

the most in terms of spending on ads and

30:23

spending on other things. It's going to have the

30:26

most impact for candidates who aren't that well known.

30:29

It's a better thing to really

30:32

hone in on for congressional races, for

30:34

instance, especially challengers, who aren't as well

30:36

known. And just

30:38

there's so much money in president for races

30:40

that you get to sort of a point

30:42

where there's definitely diminishing returns on the kinds

30:44

of, you know, when you're running ads and whatnot.

30:47

And really the main thing is, does one

30:49

side just have a ton more than the

30:51

other? And that's where there could be a

30:53

big difference. So maybe that

30:55

possibility is out there, but

30:57

it's so early that I don't think we

30:59

could really know that. Yeah,

31:02

I mean, to your point about ad

31:04

spending being one of the ways that you

31:06

can try to change the dynamics of a

31:08

race and that maybe having more of an

31:10

impact in races where the candidates are not

31:12

as well known, the Biden campaign spent an

31:14

eight figure sum on advertising during the final

31:16

months of 2023. Now

31:20

in an environment where like economics numbers

31:22

are changing and, you know, just the

31:24

political atmosphere in general, there are wars abroad.

31:26

There are many different ways to try

31:29

to get a sense of how Americans are perceiving

31:31

Biden, but it doesn't seem to have

31:33

moved at least head to head numbers all that

31:35

much, which are very early and hypothetical. Trump still

31:38

leads by a point or two on

31:40

average in these head to head polls. Should

31:42

we take anything away from you can spend

31:45

in the tens of millions of dollars range

31:47

on advertising in 2023 and not move

31:50

the numbers? Is

31:52

that like a bad sign for Biden in

31:54

general? So on the one hand, I Would

31:57

say it's early. And

32:00

so a lot of people are paying attention. And.

32:03

So. Was. That

32:05

necessarily like a good investment at

32:07

this point. There's. Sort of. There's

32:09

actually a lot of debate over sort of

32:11

the effectiveness of early ads and a campaign.

32:14

This is like been an ongoing thing for

32:16

a while now. A lot of campaign consultants

32:18

swear that they are valuable and that it

32:21

you know especially feel like define an opponent

32:23

early course. In this case you're talking about

32:25

to really well known people a president and

32:27

a former president. So is finding in the

32:30

way. like I don't know, Brock Obama campaign

32:32

claims that it made. At.

32:34

All these as that are defined. Mitt Romney

32:36

early on this way twelve campaign it's It's

32:38

maybe not the same thing, but there's also

32:41

debate over whether or not those ads that

32:43

the of have a campaign ran really mattered

32:45

all that much. I like a lot of

32:47

political scientist sort of questions that are based

32:49

on their research. Arm So it's

32:52

like on the one hand it's early and

32:54

not that may feel we're paying attention. At.

32:56

The same time you know it is

32:58

indicative of a present, his approval ratings

33:00

at like thirty nine percent or polling

33:02

average and people are not happy with

33:05

the status quo. So. It's

33:07

sort of var i but I think it in a

33:09

day like. Even if it wasn't a

33:11

waste of money is is may be hard

33:13

to say like we don't really know. The

33:15

alternative was that it like keep his numbers

33:17

up in a way like I don't know,

33:19

I'm a sister is it? But clearly they

33:22

haven't moved in making things like making his

33:24

position in the polls stronger. Than. Much

33:26

seems to be status. As it

33:28

neatly didn't get worse, Sell you now

33:30

so we have easily now effects a

33:33

how much as that spending had an

33:35

impact and that. I mean,

33:37

I I didn't agree with. Just like eighty Eight

33:39

is a financial decision, It as part of the

33:42

budget. you know, like that if you have the

33:44

money, And it's. Potentially

33:46

helpful to spend. Maybe there's an

33:48

upside that I guess minority last.

33:51

Yeah no and stuff like it's kind of a

33:53

like you're damned if you doing you're damned if

33:55

you don't situation like as he didn't spend all

33:57

that money there are be a bunch of people

33:59

be. What are you doing? Why you

34:01

just sitting around not defending yourself and like

34:03

they're be all these stories about how you

34:05

know there was dissent within the democratic party

34:08

and stuff like that and like you know

34:10

how like over trump is going out spend

34:12

biden and stuff like that and like but

34:14

an owl and the under the day it

34:16

might not all matter all out months and

34:18

we talked on the packers before about kind

34:20

of might be police or destruction every both

34:23

sides of just couldn't your mark hundreds of

34:25

millions of dollars for tv ads just because

34:27

they don't want to the other side to

34:29

be like. Monopolizing the airwaves, So.

34:32

Should we talk about down Ballot races

34:34

we have? it was much about down

34:36

Ballot races on the podcast. So far,

34:38

the rise of really. Feeling

34:41

talking about financial reports?

34:43

That the national race as has

34:45

numbers for the down. Ballot races

34:47

where they matter so much more.

34:50

All right, so let's do it. Might

34:52

start off with Tears in Cinema who

34:54

I think got some attention for her

34:56

particularly low fundraising number for the last

34:58

quarter. Twenty Twenty Three, Six Hundred Thousand

35:01

Dollars is that the fundraising hall of

35:03

a person who plans to run for

35:05

reelection? Sign. That said,

35:07

definitely Dylan it is. It's not one

35:09

of those every now and then you

35:12

get a number where it stake is

35:14

like oh obviously you're not running. It's

35:16

like you know I keep a like

35:18

ten bucks says that are you doing

35:20

it's it's It's like a number that

35:22

probably like com some of the circulation

35:24

it's It's not nothing on, you know

35:26

it's still hundreds of thousands of dollars.

35:28

but so far. Behind Ruben guy

35:31

it out than. Likely

35:33

democratic nominee who raised like three

35:35

point three million dollars and that

35:37

it's. Confidence

35:40

or. Semi. There's I

35:43

think she gets to kind of like

35:45

keep some of the sexually sen quieter.

35:48

By it's not a great sign for her. With that

35:50

to be fine fact that she's going to run for

35:52

reelection, it's not a great sign that if she does

35:54

she's to run for reelection that he would be able

35:57

to. Brian. Mccann.

35:59

Campaign. Allowed her to flip

36:01

a seat and funny, Yeah. I

36:03

mean, she still has ten and a

36:05

half million cash on hand, so I

36:07

guess he decided to rev up a

36:09

campaign she has like reserves to do.

36:12

That's awesome, but yeah, I it's not

36:14

the kind of number. That. Said

36:16

normally says you're running for reelection There

36:18

have been exceptions right? Like sometimes is

36:20

t people who like don't worry that

36:22

much and then and up still running

36:24

arm but it's usually the kind of

36:26

thing that people in our business look

36:28

at to be like oh that number

36:30

is really quite low and maybe it

36:32

means as they heard as and and

36:34

decided not to on top. Arrest was.

36:37

Also because she's now an independent so she is

36:39

running for relaxation. not going to have the support

36:41

her infrastructure from fight or of the two parties

36:43

to help home run her race succeed. Have to

36:45

do it. Pretty. Much completely on

36:47

her own. so. Also an

36:49

indication that semi to she was pulling

36:52

in millions of dollars. You would say

36:54

okay wow this is somebody who plans

36:56

on. Running. An independent race

36:58

that role. At. Least make things potentially

37:00

interesting, but that's not what that number looks

37:02

like. Right? And as an independent she

37:05

actually has to collapse a lot more signatures

37:07

to get on the ballot. ah than she

37:09

would assure running as a democrat Arm and

37:11

that is over forty thousand signatures and the

37:13

time is running out to do that. The

37:15

filing deadline in Arizona is April eighth Army

37:17

so like see is really gonna have to.

37:20

There was a good article in there is

37:22

on par with the other day about my

37:24

you're basically like time is running out like

37:26

see if she's going to do this he

37:28

is a start right now arm and there

37:30

just isn't a sign that idea. Is

37:33

five hundred ninety five thousand dollars?

37:35

Is that I don't. Care

37:37

for like I'm not trying or is

37:39

that I couldn't raise any more money

37:41

than call because I no longer. Have

37:44

the connections in my party stay out

37:46

now that I'm going to get questions.

37:48

And or know. You would think that

37:51

there would be. To. me i'd

37:53

have i don't know much about what what's

37:55

happening on the ground with donors in arizona

37:57

and obviously she can raise money from folks

37:59

yard not in Arizona specifically, but you would

38:01

think that if she really wanted to, she would

38:04

be able to raise money from

38:08

wealthy folks who think Carrie

38:10

Lake is just not a

38:12

viable candidate and want an

38:14

independent alternative, more like business

38:16

minded folks, business or whatever,

38:18

whatever, you know, the Chamber of Commerce type

38:20

Republican would be giving her money. And

38:23

they're also probably happy with some of the legislation. She's

38:25

been behind a lot of the bipartisan legislation that

38:28

Congress has passed over the past couple of years.

38:30

So you would think she would be able to raise

38:32

the money if she really wanted to. Funny

38:35

you say that, Galen. There was literally an article in the

38:37

Wall Street Journal about this just

38:40

over the weekend. I didn't read

38:42

it. Kerstin Sinema gets a look

38:44

from GOP as Carrie Lake stirs

38:46

drama. So like there

38:48

are some Republicans who are upset with

38:50

Carrie Lake, but she helped oust the

38:52

face of the chair of the Republican

38:54

Party in Arizona recently. It

38:57

was kind of a lot of drama behind the

38:59

scenes and I guess in front because there was

39:01

a lot of news headlines about it. And

39:05

without going into like the details, point is that

39:07

she upset a fair number of

39:09

Republicans in Arizona. I

39:11

think the challenge with any of this for

39:14

Sinema is that she's running as an independent.

39:17

And most of

39:19

the time, the independents who have

39:21

succeeded in winning have

39:23

done so by co-opting much of

39:25

one party's voter base. So

39:28

the challenge for Sinema

39:30

is that it looks like

39:32

she's going to have Gallego

39:34

and probably Lake as

39:37

opponents if she does run. And

39:39

those candidates both are raising money

39:41

and seem more likely

39:43

to be the types of candidates who will hold

39:45

onto their party bases. And then that just I

39:48

think greatly limits sort of the ceiling for Sinema.

39:51

And then she needs to somehow win like

39:53

a super split three-way race instead

39:55

of sort of gathering a

39:57

big chunk of Republicans or a big chunk of Democrats.

40:00

And so, you know, you think about like an

40:03

Angus King in Maine, he's mainly one with mostly

40:05

Democratic back. He's gotten a lot of Democrats behind

40:07

him, you know, the last time he ran the

40:10

Democratic nominee, the official Democratic nominee didn't get much

40:12

of the vote because King was getting most of

40:14

the Democratic votes. And there's plenty of passing samples

40:16

of this too. So Sinema is

40:19

just in a really tough spot. I mean, even

40:21

if she does run, I would be extremely skeptical

40:23

of her ability to win. All

40:25

right, let's move a little further west

40:27

where we got a candidate with in

40:29

the opposite situation from Kyrsten Sinema, that's

40:31

Adam Schiff, who's running for Senate in

40:33

California. He ended the last quarter with

40:35

$35 million cash on hand. He's,

40:38

of course, so California has a top two

40:40

primary system. So all of the Democrats and

40:42

Republicans and independents are running against each other.

40:44

As far as the Democrats go, it looks

40:47

like second place right now in the polls

40:49

is Katie Porter, Congresswoman. And then there are

40:51

also some Republican candidates running as well. What

40:54

does it look like is going on there? Are

40:56

we sort of in a situation where we can

40:59

assume that Adam Schiff is going to make it

41:01

into the general election and it's really a race

41:03

for a second? Yeah, I think so. He's

41:06

been leading pretty consistently in

41:08

in the polls. And the debate

41:10

is whether, you know, basically a

41:12

second Democrat, I.E. Katie Porter, will

41:15

join him in the general election

41:17

or whether it'll be the Republican

41:19

Steve Garvey, the former baseball player,

41:21

who is probably not an A-list

41:23

celebrity. And

41:26

but basically, obviously, like Schiff and

41:28

probably no small amount of Democrats

41:30

would like it to be Schiff

41:33

and Garvey in November, because basically

41:35

that is like nine months

41:38

where Democrats aren't going to be spending

41:40

millions of dollars and nuking each other

41:42

in an extended primary, which,

41:44

you know, like is I mean, money doesn't always work

41:46

this way, right? But like that's

41:48

money that could be deployed in other center races

41:50

like Montana or Ohio or something like that. But

41:54

in fact, you saw Adam Schiff Airing an

41:56

ad recently that was sneaky. Adamantly

42:00

tag of and that we have come

42:02

to see more and more often where

42:04

he basically quote unquote attacked Garvey for

42:06

being by saying he's a conservative through

42:08

and through. he's yeah romp He voted

42:11

for Trump my wife. And

42:13

it's like okay we got them if we get

42:15

them as and so basically out of chef has

42:17

so much money that he is airing as to

42:19

help. A Garvey because says

42:21

himself doesn't actually need the help to

42:23

get into the the second round on

42:26

South. To be clear, what Adam Schiff

42:28

with in the ad and juxtaposed Adam

42:30

Schiff to is Steve Garvey. It wasn't

42:33

like he's just airing ads on Steve

42:35

Garvey. T I is nothing. Vote for

42:37

Steve Garvey read: Zachary he sang white

42:39

Look at the difference. I'm a liberal

42:42

and this guy's a conservative. But the

42:44

to conservative Californians it's quite clear that

42:46

when you see somebody juxtaposed Adam Schiff,

42:48

you said wow. I like. That guy

42:51

who's not out obsessed. He's trying to

42:53

choose his his opponent that's like and

42:55

be seen this happen before it's a

42:57

wink wink nudge nudge kind of moment.

42:59

You know with. That same a castle say

43:01

that sex and the beer when she doesn't like

43:03

this and. Twelve hour

43:06

after hour was administered. See this

43:08

her opponent taught him and of

43:10

who heart ache and legitimate rape

43:12

was have. That was An and

43:14

see aired similar kinds of ads like

43:16

Alleys. To conserve as ends. And

43:18

see the Sky month and he won the nomination

43:20

and she one that alex and so it's a

43:22

thing. Okay, what other

43:24

numbers start out to folks

43:27

in the Fcc filings before

43:29

we and from the day.

43:31

I. Would say of the number from

43:33

map, Rose and Dell in Montana.

43:36

Ah, he raised just ninety eight

43:38

thousand dollars. Ah Mom's he is

43:40

not a candidate for senate, yes,

43:42

but he is expected to get

43:44

in at some point this month

43:46

or next month and forget exactly

43:48

what was reported but arms. He

43:50

is kind of the tea party

43:53

candidate. pretty conservative guy. He ran

43:55

against Democratic Sen Jon Tester and

43:57

twenty eighteen and last Arm. So

43:59

he's. Not terribly electable and in Montana

44:01

is pretty red and down and a presidential

44:03

year in particular sharing the ballot with Trump

44:06

frozen Dell could very well when arm but

44:08

I think there is general agreement at least

44:10

among people not named Manners and Dell that's

44:12

the other republican candidates him see who is

44:14

kind of supported by the and are as

44:16

seats com is more electable Arm he is

44:19

as like a good story of being I

44:21

can maybe say oh he's also a multi

44:23

income so fun to some degree. I think

44:25

we don't know exactly how much but arms.

44:27

He at least raise a credible amount of

44:29

money out this quarter onto a half million

44:32

dollars arm. So basically Rosen Dell doesn't look

44:34

like give me a he's putting up a

44:36

number that would normally say he's not running

44:38

either but we also have these reports as

44:40

a he is gonna run arm so it's

44:43

a little uncertain there So as he does

44:45

end up running obviously he's gonna be kind

44:47

of at a financial disadvantage. She could lose

44:49

the primary to see and despite the fact

44:51

that I think as they were of all

44:53

things are equal he probably fight Rosen Dell

44:56

that when the primary. given his past name

44:58

recognition in the states on the fact that

45:00

is more conservative kind of more of a

45:02

true believer I would say I'm faster by.

45:04

yeah I think that's a thing of to

45:07

be really one of the most pivotal primaries

45:09

Of the cycle. With. The Montana

45:11

race in out in Brazil does have

45:13

Ill have say one point seven million

45:15

dollars in the bag. So like. If

45:18

he doesn't have money to work with to

45:20

start out, if he does side when for

45:22

sad against see in the Republican primary and

45:25

see to be clear has a little less

45:27

than that I'd ever had, A little less

45:29

than that into the last quarter. By.

45:32

It's yeah, just just so. Raise

45:34

that little. Arm and you're

45:36

thinking about running. even in a state

45:39

that is not expensive to run ads

45:41

and like Montana in, I feared facing

45:43

a potentially extremely competitive primary and any

45:46

of the early polling with seen in

45:48

Montana has shown that see him Rosa

45:50

Dell could be a real or a

45:53

barn burner as he will end it

45:55

seems kind of amazing to me, like

45:57

a law that I kept little now.

46:00

practice. All right.

46:02

Well, if you enjoyed this, I'm sure we'll have plenty more in

46:04

the weeds Senate

46:06

coverage as we move through the year. Of

46:08

course, it's pretty competitive as we discussed, I

46:10

think, in the first podcast of the year

46:12

where we were buying and selling odds folks

46:15

that was pretty likely that Republicans win. But

46:18

we will see as things continue.

46:20

Thank you, Leah, Jeff and Nathaniel.

46:23

Thanks, Galen. Thanks as always, Galen. Thanks.

46:27

My name is Galen Drew. Tony Chow is in the

46:29

control room. Our producers are Shane McKeon and Cameron Tritavian

46:31

and our intern and guest star of

46:33

the podcast is Jayla Everett. You can get in

46:35

touch by emailing us at podcastat538.com. You can also,

46:37

of course, tweet us with any questions or comments.

46:39

If you're a fan of the show, leave us

46:41

a rating or review in the Apple Podcast Store

46:43

or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening and

46:45

we will see you soon.