0:00

I think three things, only ever three.

0:02

You only think three. I'm

0:04

sure you got a lot more thoughts on that. Four. Four

0:07

whole. Four whole. All right.

0:09

All right. Hello

0:17

and welcome to the FiveThirtyEight Politics

0:19

podcast. I'm Galen Druck and we've

0:21

got a lot to cover today.

0:23

First and foremost, this is our

0:25

Michigan Primary Reaction podcast. On Tuesday

0:27

night, both Trump and Biden easily

0:30

won their respective primaries in the

0:32

state. We're going to take a

0:34

look under the hood and make sense of

0:36

some of the discontent in both parties. The

0:38

uncommitted vote on the Democratic side received about

0:40

13% support. That

0:43

vote was largely organized by activists who

0:45

disapprove of Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas

0:48

war. And on the

0:50

Republican side, Haley once again overperformed her

0:52

polls and got about 27% of

0:55

the vote. We're also going to

0:57

turn our gaze to Washington, where we

0:59

are just days away from a partial

1:01

government shutdown. And that's just the first

1:04

in a series of deadlines that Congress

1:06

has to meet to keep the government

1:08

funded and running. Also both

1:10

Biden and Trump are heading to the

1:12

southern border on Thursday to talk about

1:14

immigration. Perhaps they've been

1:16

looking at the polls. A new Gallup

1:18

poll came out this week showing that

1:20

immigration has supplanted the economy as the

1:22

most important problem facing the country. So

1:25

we're going to talk about it. And

1:27

later in the show, we have a good or

1:29

bad use of polling example that uses pictures, specifically

1:32

a picture of RFK Jr. and his

1:35

father. Could voters tell

1:37

the difference? Here with me to

1:39

discuss is director of data analytics, Elliot Morris. Welcome

1:41

to the podcast, Elliot. Hey, Galen. Also

1:43

joining us is senior Washington correspondent

1:45

at Politico and co-author of playbook,

1:47

Rachel Bade. Welcome back to the

1:50

podcast, Rachel. Hey there. And joining

1:52

us for the first time is

1:55

Michigan politics reporter for the independent

1:57

nonpartisan outlet Bridge, Michigan, Jonathan Osteen.

2:00

Welcome to the podcast. Hey, thanks for having

2:02

me. It's so exciting to

2:04

have a local reporter. So I want

2:06

to start with you, and I want

2:09

to talk about the Democratic side. A

2:11

lot of the reporting leading up to

2:13

Tuesday's primary focused on Michigan's Arab American

2:16

population and Arab Americans make up about

2:18

2% of the state population,

2:20

which is small, but still the highest

2:22

percentage in the country. Between

2:24

that and the campaign to vote

2:26

uncommitted, the race was framed as

2:29

a referendum on Biden's handling of

2:31

the war in Gaza. As

2:34

somebody who's on the ground in

2:36

Michigan, I'm curious what you make

2:38

of that framing. Well, it was

2:40

certainly curious to see all of

2:42

the national media descend on Dearborn

2:44

in particular to tell that exact

2:46

same story. But yeah, I mean,

2:48

it was, you know,

2:50

otherwise going to be a pretty boring

2:52

primary. And I think, you know, people

2:55

were looking for a little drama and

2:57

that provided it. I mean,

2:59

do you think that

3:01

it was an appropriate framing? And if that was the

3:03

framing, what did we learn? Well, yeah,

3:05

listen, it's an issue for Biden. The

3:07

campaign ended up getting 13% of the vote for

3:11

uncommitted in Michigan, which as you mentioned,

3:14

is not a huge number, but by

3:16

raw numbers, about 100,000 Michigan

3:19

voters cast uncommitted ballots. And

3:21

that's significant because Donald

3:23

Trump won the state in

3:26

2016 by 10,704 votes. Biden

3:30

won the state in 2020 by about 154,000 votes. So

3:35

100,000, you know, that could be significant if it holds

3:37

in the general election. That said, 13% is a pretty,

3:40

you know, it's

3:43

not hugely consequential. And based on

3:45

historic standards in Michigan, the uncommitted

3:47

vote is actually fairly

3:49

popular here. In

3:52

2012, for instance, Obama was

3:54

running uncontested. 11%

3:56

of Democratic primary voters cast

3:59

uncommitted ballots. that year. So, you

4:01

know, this year, this campaign,

4:04

specifically focused on the Gaza War, boosted those

4:07

numbers a bit, but, you know, not in

4:09

a way that necessarily spells doom

4:11

for Biden come fall. Okay,

4:13

I want to dig into that question a little

4:15

bit more about whether it spells doom for Biden

4:17

in the fall. But first, Elliot, what do you

4:19

make of that 13% number? I know you were

4:24

trying to create benchmarks before

4:26

the primary voting happened for

4:28

like, what would signify significant

4:31

discontent in Michigan? Yeah,

4:33

well, I guess three things. I think

4:35

three things. Only ever

4:37

three. You've only got a lot

4:40

more thoughts on that. Four. Four

4:42

holes. Four. All right. All right. First off,

4:45

it's hard to make benchmarks. Okay. Michigan's primary

4:47

system has changed since the last time there

4:49

was competitive primaries there and since the last

4:51

time there was a high or comparable

4:53

uncontested vote. That was in 2012 and

4:56

Barack Obama faced a sort of 11 to 12% uncontested

4:59

vote in his primary. But it's a caucus,

5:01

right? So uncontested means something somewhat different. You

5:04

know, it is a high number

5:06

100,000 voters, Democrats,

5:08

presumably deciding to

5:11

check uncontested on a box and register

5:13

their discontent with the president. That is

5:15

real hard proof of something we've only

5:18

ever observed in polls or

5:20

media accounts elsewhere. So it's good to have

5:22

those raw numbers. I'm just not sure it

5:24

tells us anything new, anything different about the

5:27

way this campaign is unfolding. We know that.

5:29

Like we already knew that Biden was struggling

5:31

with, say, young voters or voters of color.

5:34

Right. We already know he's struggling

5:36

with young voters, with liberals, especially

5:38

with Arab

5:40

American Democrats over

5:42

the situation in Israel and Gaza. So this

5:45

confirms that, but it's not like a break

5:47

glass moment, I think, for Joe

5:49

Biden. It is confirmatory of a

5:51

weakness. Finally, third in a close election. That

5:53

could matter. But you know what could also

5:56

matter is attrition on

5:58

the Republican side. or

6:00

any other number of events that

6:02

shaped this campaign. So, look,

6:05

if Joe Biden ultimately loses the election, it's gonna

6:07

be impossible for us to say that like, this

6:10

one event reelected Donald Trump,

6:12

because there are a million other factors that

6:14

made the election close, and this one just

6:16

tipped it. So, I think

6:18

people are reading a little too much into this. Okay,

6:21

yeah, I think it's also a little tricky

6:24

to say, there's discontent with

6:26

Biden on this issue. So,

6:29

therefore X or Y, right?

6:31

Like, for example, if Biden

6:33

moves to the left, and I think

6:36

he has moved to the left a

6:38

little bit or taken more

6:40

consideration of progressive position on this

6:42

issue, he risks

6:44

losing folks on the other side

6:46

of the equation. And we

6:48

know that part of the way he won in 2020

6:52

was overperforming with like suburban college

6:54

educated voters who had been ancestral

6:57

Republicans in places like the Atlanta

6:59

suburbs, the Philadelphia Collar counties. The

7:02

same is true of the Collar counties in Detroit,

7:05

for example, and so this

7:07

is politics, and you move in one direction and

7:09

you risk sort of being outdone in the other

7:11

direction. Rachel, I know you've been doing some reporting

7:13

in Michigan, what do you make of all of

7:16

this? I think there's a

7:18

bigger story going on beyond just looking at that

7:20

13% uncommitted. When

7:22

I was out in Michigan, and I talked to

7:24

folks on the phone on this too, I spoke

7:26

to a number of people

7:29

in the abandoned Biden movement,

7:31

which is beyond the uncommitted movement.

7:33

These are Arab Americans and Muslim

7:36

voters who have already decided that

7:38

they will not vote for Biden.

7:41

They didn't show up and vote uncommitted, they showed up

7:43

and voted for someone else. So one thing

7:45

I've been looking at, I'm interested

7:48

in actually learning more about is the

7:50

group of voters who voted in the Democratic

7:52

primary but did not vote for Biden, it

7:54

looks like that was 6%. If

7:57

you combine that 6% with... like

8:00

the uncommitted. I mean, isn't that more of

8:02

a problem for Biden? Because there is a

8:04

group of voters out there who

8:07

will not vote for Biden, even if it

8:09

means electing Donald Trump. And I think one

8:11

of the problems that the Biden campaign has

8:13

right now is they keep thinking that voters

8:16

are going to view this as a binary

8:18

choice when we get closer to November. You're

8:20

either with Donald Trump, or you're

8:22

with Joe Biden. And I don't think

8:24

they understand yet that there are a

8:27

lot of voters out there who said

8:29

to me, I don't like

8:31

Trump. I didn't like the Muslim ban. And I said,

8:34

he was like xenophobic. But

8:37

Donald Trump didn't kill our people. Joe

8:39

Biden killed our people. And literally have said

8:41

that to me, whether you agree

8:43

with it or not, there are a

8:45

group of people who are not going to vote

8:48

for him and who are beyond the uncommitted. So

8:51

now is it enough to upend things in November for

8:53

him in Michigan? I don't know. It sounds like you

8:55

guys think not necessarily. Yeah, to your

8:57

point, Biden is struggling with

8:59

Arab Americans, not just because of this

9:01

issue. I mean, Dearborn actually was like

9:04

a real hotspot for the book wars

9:06

in 2022. Traditionally,

9:10

culturally conservative,

9:13

a lot of Arab Americans came out

9:15

in support of book bans in local

9:17

libraries. And really, Michigan Republicans flocked to

9:20

their side and there were some interesting

9:22

alliances that were formed during

9:25

that movement a couple years ago.

9:27

In fact, two co-chairs in the

9:29

Michigan Republican Party right now are

9:31

Arab American folks from the

9:33

Dearborn area. In Dearborn in particular, which

9:35

really got all this attention because of

9:38

the uncommitted vote, Trump got almost as

9:40

many votes as Biden too. I mean,

9:42

it was about a thousand difference. So

9:44

Trump actually, Republicans in general, I think

9:46

we're making some inroads in

9:49

those communities to begin with. I

9:51

mean, Arab Americans were more

9:54

likely to be conservative before 9-11.

9:56

I mean, that all changed

9:58

and they've been reliably democratic. for

10:00

the past two decades, but there were some

10:02

signs that was already beginning to shift. Yeah,

10:04

I think there are some good points here.

10:06

Folks who've been listening to the podcast for

10:08

a while might remember an interview we did

10:10

with a Turkish immigrant named Frank back in

10:12

the fall, who basically said he had voted

10:14

for Biden, but that the LGBTQ

10:17

agenda in schools was making him

10:19

reconsider his vote. This was before

10:21

anything that happened on October 7th.

10:24

But I also want to say, to

10:26

Rachel's point, the uncommitted vote, like somebody

10:28

who was engaged in politics enough to

10:31

turn out in a Democratic primary

10:33

to send a message to the

10:36

Democratic incumbent, are people who you might

10:38

expect to actually vote for a Democrat

10:40

in the fall, or at least view

10:42

Donald Trump as enough of a threat

10:44

that they might consider still

10:47

just voting for Biden. It's people

10:49

who are not engaged in this process

10:51

right now that are maybe more of

10:53

a threat. And when it comes to

10:55

that, I think in some ways this

10:58

focus on Arab Americans is, while

11:00

important, a little misguided, right?

11:03

So Arab Americans make up

11:05

200,000 of Michigan's

11:07

10 million population of

11:09

those people who are old enough

11:11

to vote, who are actually registered.

11:13

It's a relatively low turnout population

11:16

anyway. So if we're talking about

11:18

raw numbers, the Arab American vote,

11:20

even though it's the strongest in

11:22

Michigan of any place in the

11:24

country, is still not particularly strong.

11:27

The bigger issue, I would suggest,

11:29

is amongst young voters and voters

11:31

of color broadly. We already know

11:33

that Biden deteriorated significantly

11:35

in his support amongst Latino voters.

11:38

We've seen it decline precipitously amongst

11:40

black voters from about 90% favorability

11:43

when he took office to about 60%

11:46

favorability now. And so I

11:48

think the bigger question is, is he

11:51

able to shore up his coalition in

11:53

other places, also represented in Michigan, like

11:55

Detroit, which has a large African American

11:57

population, for example, is he going to

11:59

to be able to turn folks out.

12:01

And I think while it's

12:03

not like a distraction, it's a somewhat

12:06

crude way of doing electoral math to

12:08

keep talking about this kind of the

12:10

population. And also, to

12:12

be clear, this is not a population that is voting 100%

12:14

for Democrats anyway. Like

12:16

you could easily go and say, well, what's

12:19

the Jewish population in Pennsylvania? And therefore, you

12:21

know, Biden needs to be strong

12:23

on Israel in order to keep that coalition

12:25

together, which is significantly larger than 2% in

12:28

Pennsylvania. But that's actually not how politics

12:30

works. I think this whole thing has

12:32

gotten us a little bit astray. But

12:34

I'm curious, Jonathan, you're the Michigander on

12:36

the podcast. Would you agree with that?

12:40

Yeah, in fact, I actually spent some

12:42

time on college campuses a couple

12:45

of weeks ago, specifically exploring that

12:48

idea of young voters. And I mean,

12:50

it was a very small sample size,

12:52

of course, just kids I ran into

12:54

on campus. But I didn't really find

12:56

anybody super enthusiastic about Joe Biden. In

12:58

fact, several were, you know, exploring third

13:00

party options. One went to a RFK

13:02

Junior rally. And, you know,

13:04

there's been some polling in Michigan. Again,

13:07

you guys probably wouldn't like

13:09

it because it's a small sample from a 600

13:11

sample poll. But-

13:14

Pretty good. They're kind of- Well, 600's

13:17

statewide. And then, you know, breaking down

13:19

the young voter demographic within- Oh, okay.

13:21

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We

13:23

caution against crosstabs, you know. Sure, crosstabs.

13:26

But in any case, you know, there

13:28

are pollsters here in Michigan who are

13:30

raising alarm bells specifically about the young

13:33

voter issue. And, you know, Biden won

13:35

Michigan in part because of this coalition,

13:37

which included young people, Detroit. But also,

13:40

he did really well in some

13:42

suburbs that had traditionally been GOP

13:44

strongholds. And I will note, one

13:46

other takeaway from the Michigan primary

13:48

last night was that Trump underperformed

13:51

in areas like Oakland County,

13:55

and even Ottawa County, which used

13:57

to be just a diehard GOP

13:59

stronghold. Nikki. Haley popped 30% in

14:01

each of those counties, not a

14:03

huge number, but she did better

14:05

there than in other parts of

14:07

the state, suggesting Trump might still

14:09

have some issues with his suburban

14:11

voters, giving Biden some positive

14:15

takeaways from this election, perhaps. If

14:17

I could just jump in here, and without

14:19

getting too much into the validity

14:22

of early polling or crosstabs for

14:24

favorability among different demographic groups. No, dive

14:26

right in. Just really go for it.

14:31

It's a little besides the point right now.

14:33

I find this conversation about Biden's weakness also

14:35

a little shoehorned. You know what number is

14:37

bigger than the percent of, is

14:41

both bigger in raw numbers and percentage terms than

14:44

support for undecided or third

14:46

party candidates, or sorry, non-Biden or

14:48

uncommitted candidates in the Democratic Party?

14:50

It's the share and number of votes Nikki Haley got

14:52

last night. And so if we're doing all

14:55

this math about how many- Wait,

14:57

we're about to pivot, Elliot. Okay,

14:59

okay. You have to come in

15:01

here. Jump in the gas. It is

15:04

a binary choice, but okay,

15:06

I will let us get

15:08

there when you're ready. I guess if you

15:10

have four choices, as we like to

15:13

say, if you don't like Biden or Trump, you

15:15

can not vote, you can vote third party, you

15:17

can hold your nose and vote for Trump, you

15:19

can hold your nose and vote for Biden. That's

15:21

how I like to present the choices that folks

15:23

make this fall. I

15:26

hear your point. Let's talk about the Republican

15:28

primary. And I think the first question I want

15:30

to ask is, so Nikki Haley was approaching 30%

15:32

statewide. She

15:35

beat her polls. So I should

15:37

say that Donald Trump beat Nikki Haley by about

15:39

42 points statewide. Going

15:42

into Tuesday, Trump was leading in our average of

15:44

polls by 57 points. So

15:47

that's an underperformance on Trump's part

15:49

by 15 points. I'm

15:51

curious, Elliot, do you think there's something significant

15:53

there? Because we have seen a similar trend

15:56

actually, also in New Hampshire and South

15:58

Carolina, of Nikki Haley beating her. polls?

16:01

I do think there is something to the

16:04

pretty uniform pattern of Trump underperforming

16:06

his polls in the primaries. I

16:09

would not want to over-interpret

16:11

that as shy Nikki Haley

16:13

voters or people lying to

16:15

pollsters or that. It's

16:18

equally plausible that pollsters are

16:20

just getting unrepresentative samples of primary

16:22

voters. Remember, poll today... Which

16:25

is to say, not enough independents or

16:27

potential Democrats showing up in a Republican

16:30

primary. Yeah, there's some

16:32

methodological challenges here with polling

16:34

primary voters. Remember, polls have a

16:36

response rate of like 1% if

16:38

you're lucky these days. That

16:41

means pollsters have to adjust

16:44

their data to make it representative of

16:46

whatever population they're trying to sample. That's

16:49

somewhat easy to do if your population

16:51

is all Americans because the census gives

16:53

you the demographic breakdowns, like this percent

16:55

of the population is white, this percentage

16:57

is old, etc. But

16:59

you don't really have that for the population of

17:02

primary voters. For one

17:04

thing, if the population

17:06

appears and disappears on election

17:08

day, so you have to approximate

17:10

it with a voter file or a

17:12

previous poll. But

17:15

secondly, we don't know how that

17:17

population has shifted since the last time there was a

17:19

primary in that state. So whether

17:21

or not this is some latent

17:24

psychological pattern or

17:27

just methodological, I would lean

17:29

toward methodological. But it does seem

17:31

like it's happening pretty much every

17:33

primary to a different degree. We

17:35

talked about on the Democratic side

17:37

there being about, like

17:40

you could call it a 20% protest

17:42

vote. It's 13% uncom... A

17:44

little more than 13% uncommitted. A little more

17:47

than 6% voted for

17:49

Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson or

17:51

whoever else they could have voted for, they could have written

17:54

in whoever they wanted. And on the Republican side, of course,

17:56

only 3% voted uncommitted by 27, 28.

18:00

98% voted for Nikki Haley. Is it fair

18:02

to add all that up and say, well, on the Republican

18:04

side, there's a 30% protest vote, but on

18:06

the Democratic side, there was only a 20% protest vote

18:09

because Nikki Haley is more of a

18:11

live option than, well, uncommitted Dean

18:14

Phillips or Marianne Williamson. Look, Joe

18:17

Biden is heading for

18:19

the most successful presidential

18:22

primary for an incumbent president since the

18:24

modern primary system began. George H. W.

18:26

Bush got 73% of the vote in

18:29

1990, nationwide. Jimmy

18:33

Carter got 51%. So Joe Biden hanging out

18:35

at 80%, 90% in these contests is significantly better

18:42

than our benchmarks. Donald

18:45

Trump by contrast is doing poorly. Come on,

18:47

come on. First of all, he doesn't have

18:49

a strong challenger. And second of all, I

18:52

think making these historical comparisons is a little

18:54

bit tricky because of the role that partisanship

18:56

has played in terms of becoming increasingly a

18:59

motivating factor here. And so

19:02

while I think we can bring

19:04

up those numbers, I don't think we're comparing apples

19:06

to apples necessarily. Yeah, there's no

19:08

apples to apples outside of

19:12

the modern polarized system. I buy

19:14

that point. All I'm saying is

19:17

if you're trying to come up with an expectation for

19:19

Joe Biden and

19:22

you're like converting that into how he's

19:24

going to do in the general election,

19:26

then it's not at all clear to

19:28

me that he's sort of like significantly

19:30

below where you would want him to

19:32

be. Maybe he's five points below. But

19:35

anyway, and the second order effect of

19:37

this is he's doing a heck of

19:39

a lot better than Donald Trump. The

19:41

people in Donald Trump's position right now,

19:44

incumbents, pseudo incumbents

19:47

running for presidential nomination. You're

19:52

not you count him as an incumbent. He's

19:54

running between Jimmy Carter and H.W. Bush,

19:58

both of whom lost his position. lost in their

20:01

general election. Anyway, my point here is you can

20:03

spend these numbers however you want. Yeah. Let's ask

20:05

the Michigan reporter. I mean, do you see that

20:07

30% on the Republican side as

20:09

a protest vote or are folks saying like, no,

20:11

we still were voting for Nikki Haley because we

20:14

still think she has a shot at the nomination?

20:16

You know, I think it's probably a little bit

20:18

of both. But certainly, you

20:21

know, folks know that Donald Trump is

20:23

likely going to be the nominee people

20:25

I talked to. I talked to one

20:28

voter who was actually uncommitted in the

20:30

GOP primary yesterday in Grand Rapids, Kent

20:32

County, one of those areas

20:35

that really went for Biden in

20:37

2020. She voted for Trump in 2016,

20:40

Biden in 2020. And this

20:42

year, she definitely lodged a protest

20:44

vote. She couldn't stomach voting for any

20:46

candidate on either side of the ticket and

20:49

voted uncommitted and said she's got a lot

20:51

of soul searching to do. So certainly

20:53

some of that was a protest vote. Rachel,

20:55

do you have a take on this,

20:57

at least in terms of how both

21:00

sides are reacting to this? Like, do

21:02

you see Biden's team or

21:04

Trump's team as taking the results

21:06

of the primaries so far, particularly

21:09

seriously, as indicative of poor performance

21:11

in the general? I mean,

21:13

I do think it's interesting that all

21:15

the coverage is really focusing on Biden

21:17

and the uncommitted vote. And when it

21:19

comes to Trump versus Haley, the story

21:21

always seems to be, oh, Trump dominating

21:23

Haley, she basically lost her

21:25

path. There's no path for her, as

21:28

opposed to, oh, this group of

21:30

voters is voting for Haley. I think

21:32

there was an AP exit poll in

21:35

South Carolina that sounds like one in

21:37

five Republicans in South Carolina said they

21:39

will not vote for Donald Trump, even

21:41

if he is the nominee. Like those

21:44

sorts of numbers, obviously, the Trump

21:46

campaign should be particularly worried about, right?

21:48

But it does feel like there's not

21:50

enough analysis and coverage of this other piece of

21:52

it and how that's going to factor into things.

21:54

And in terms of like how both of these

21:56

campaigns are playing it, that I can tell

21:58

you, I mean, the Biden. campaign, again,

22:01

they seem to be of this opinion that people are

22:03

going to come home in November when it's

22:05

Trump versus Biden. I

22:08

feel like they are wearing

22:10

some rose colored glasses on

22:12

that. And I don't

22:14

know that if what Biden is doing right now

22:16

is enough to sort of bring some of these voters

22:18

around. I mean, you've seen a very clear shift

22:20

in his rhetoric in recent days. First

22:23

at the U.N., where you

22:25

had the United States drafting a

22:27

resolution calling for a temporary ceasefire and

22:30

actually using the word ceasefire

22:32

for the first time since

22:35

this war broke out months ago. And

22:37

now Biden's saying that even more that he expects

22:40

a ceasefire in the coming days, which, by the

22:42

way, the reality on the ground suggests that that

22:44

is not the case right now. But Biden is,

22:47

he seems to be hearing that there's a

22:49

problem and thinking that he can fix it by just

22:51

saying these words. I just don't know that that's

22:54

going to change people's lives. So

22:56

in the Trump people, Trump is

22:58

always boasting about his numbers. I

23:01

haven't caught up with any of his top

23:03

campaign advisers since last night, but

23:06

they do generally seem to

23:08

have a better grasp about his challenges

23:10

ahead than the actual candidate himself.

23:12

So we'll see. All

23:15

right. Well, Jonathan, we're going to give you the

23:18

last word here as the Michigander. We're

23:20

talking about some very specific dynamics within

23:22

the two parties here. But if you

23:24

had to characterize what

23:27

is happening politically in Michigan

23:29

today, how would you do it?

23:31

And that's coming from the perspective of like in

23:34

polling recently, it doesn't seem like Biden

23:36

is doing particularly well there. But at

23:38

the same time, you have a very

23:40

popular Democratic governor and a Republican party,

23:43

at least in terms of the actual infrastructure

23:45

of the Republican Party that is in disarray.

23:47

I mean, up until recently, it looked like

23:49

the state was going to have two Republican

23:52

conventions because the chair who had lost

23:54

recently was claiming that the vote was

23:56

illegitimate and was going to hold her

23:58

own convention. Nonetheless, it seems like

24:01

a court has put the kibosh on that.

24:03

But given all of that, tell us, what's

24:05

your take on where things come down? Well,

24:08

I think anecdotally, you know, I

24:10

see a lot of energy right

24:12

now on the Republican side, but

24:14

that energy is largely focused on

24:16

fighting each other at this point,

24:18

at least within the state party

24:20

apparatus. As far as the general electorate

24:22

goes, I mean, I think this is sort of going to

24:24

be like 2016 or

24:26

to a lesser extent 2020. You've

24:29

got two quite unpopular candidates, and

24:31

a lot of voters here are

24:33

trying to figure out if they

24:35

can stomach one or the other.

24:38

And you know, the fight is going to

24:40

be about persuading those voters

24:43

who don't like either candidate to vote

24:45

for one of them in November. All

24:47

right, we're going to leave things there. And we're

24:49

going to let you go, Jonathan. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thanks.

24:53

And next, we're going to talk about what's going

24:55

on in Washington. Hey,

24:58

I'm Andy Mitchell, a New York Times

25:00

bestselling author. And I'm Sabrina Kohlberg, a

25:02

morning television producer. We're moms of

25:04

toddlers and best friends of 20

25:06

years. And we both love

25:09

to talk about being parents, yes. But

25:11

also, top culture. We're both

25:13

combining our two interests by

25:15

talking to celebrities, writers, and

25:17

fellow scholars of TV and movies. Cinema,

25:20

really, about what we all can learn

25:22

from the fictional moms who love to

25:24

watch. From ABC audio and

25:27

Good Morning America, pop culture moms is

25:29

out now wherever you listen to

25:31

podcasts. Congress

25:35

now has until Friday at midnight before

25:37

they reach a key funding deadline that

25:39

if not met will lead to a

25:41

partial government shutdown, the bipartisan bill that

25:43

would prevent this was hoped to be

25:45

released last Sunday. and

26:00

the Veterans Administration will run out of funding.

26:03

So Rachel, this is squarely your

26:05

area of expertise. What is going

26:07

on right now? Oh

26:10

my gosh, I feel like this is Groundhog

26:12

Day. How many times have we had a

26:14

shutdown fight in the past like couple months?

26:17

It's getting a little old.

26:19

Look, I think they're gonna fund the

26:21

government. I think that Republican leadership in

26:24

both chambers believes that a shutdown would

26:26

actually blow back more on their party

26:29

than Joe Biden and the White House. So

26:31

I think they're gonna find a way to get there. The

26:34

problem of course is that Speaker Johnson has

26:36

a lot of Republican members who are pissed

26:38

at him. And they think

26:40

he is caving to Democrats all the time

26:43

and they wanted to stand firm on things.

26:45

And so they want some sort of real

26:47

policy wins on these appropriation bills. But

26:50

getting these policy wins, convincing a

26:52

Senate Democrat and a Democratic White House

26:55

to sign on to things like a ban

26:57

on mail order abortion pills. I

27:00

mean, good luck. I just don't see

27:02

it happening. So my best estimate

27:04

is that Johnson is gonna end up

27:07

caving. He's gonna get in big trouble

27:09

with his members, but they'll

27:11

avoid a shutdown. Now,

27:14

one of the things we should keep in mind

27:16

is any one Senator can actually hold up like

27:19

the fast tracking process. We only have a

27:21

couple of days, as you mentioned, and the

27:23

Senate procedure is a spider

27:26

web. Like it takes forever. It's

27:28

extremely complicated. And if

27:30

one Senator objects and tries to

27:32

draw everything out, we could have a partial shutdown

27:35

for a little bit until they're able

27:37

to have the final passage vote in the chamber. So a

27:40

lot of moving parts here, but I do think

27:42

it'll get resolved. As Rachel mentioned,

27:44

this is something of a Groundhog Day

27:47

situation. You suggested that Republicans

27:49

think the blowback will affect

27:51

them more from a potential

27:53

shutdown than it would affect

27:55

Democrats. Elliot, what

27:57

does history say about how government shutdowns?

28:00

shape political perceptions. Yeah,

28:03

in terms of historical polls and

28:05

some political science research, history

28:08

suggests there's modest blame placed on

28:10

the party that seems like the one

28:12

that's more responsible. And I know what

28:14

I just said sounds incredibly nebulous, and

28:17

that's because it is. Most

28:19

voters, to the extent that they will hear about

28:21

a shutdown, will hear sort of

28:23

binary anecdotes

28:27

about senators or house members who

28:29

are holdouts and then attach blame to that

28:31

person, if they attach blame

28:33

at all. And that's one method of

28:35

accountability. And then another is,

28:37

to take the 2013 example, the debt

28:39

crisis, when there is an extended period

28:41

of a government shutdown that causes people

28:43

to lose their jobs or decreases liquidity

28:45

in the markets, then voters

28:47

do react to that sort of thing, too. In

28:50

that case, blame was attached

28:52

more to Republicans. So the takeaway here

28:54

is the precise events leading up to

28:57

the shutdown do matter. And

28:59

if it looks like, historically, if

29:02

one senator or a group of members seems

29:04

like the only ones to blame, the voters

29:06

typically do react to that. There's

29:09

a convention of wisdom on the Hill that the party

29:11

who makes the demand in a shutdown is the party

29:13

that gets blamed and loses. And we've seen this on,

29:15

as you mentioned, we've seen it on both sides of

29:17

the aisle. The one that stands out to me is

29:20

Trump's shutdown over the border wall

29:22

going into the Democratic takeover in

29:24

2019, January of 2019. The

29:27

government shutdown in December of 2018

29:29

was the longest government shutdown we had. Trump

29:31

didn't get a penny of his border wall. The

29:36

polls showed Republicans were to blame

29:38

and voters were blaming Republicans. And

29:41

so they end up caving. But then I believe

29:43

it was just a few months after

29:45

that, we saw another government shutdown where

29:47

the Democrats were demanding a fix for

29:49

DACA for dreamers. It was

29:51

after like some sort of court ruling where

29:53

these dreamers were sort of in limbo who

29:56

had been brought to this country as kids and

29:58

their legal status. and

30:01

Schumer and Pelosi tried to make

30:03

a demand to protect dreamers, which

30:05

is very popular polling wise, but they ended

30:07

up seeing a lot of public pressure because

30:10

they were making the demands that they weren't

30:12

going to fund the government until a solution

30:14

for dreamers came up, and they ended up

30:16

caving and again getting nothing. So generally speaking,

30:18

the people who have sort of seen this

30:20

happen up here is like the party that

30:23

makes the demand gets the blame, and that's

30:25

why you see a lot of leaders saying

30:27

it's a bad idea. And you get

30:29

nothing, that's it. This

30:32

is all happening against the backdrop of Ukraine

30:35

military aid and border security

30:38

being, I hesitate to call them live

30:41

debates on the Hill because it seems

30:44

like debate over border security has

30:46

been squashed, but I actually want

30:48

to talk about that. But

30:50

let's start, let's get Ukraine sort of out of

30:52

the way to begin with, which is, does it

30:55

look like there's any chance, there

30:58

is more consideration amongst Republicans of passing

31:00

Ukraine military aid, it looks like at

31:02

this point, than passing the bipartisan border

31:04

security bill. Where

31:07

would you put the odds at for that, Rachel? Yeah,

31:09

it's really tough. There are clearly

31:12

numbers for passage, it's already passed the Senate. If

31:14

it was put on the House floor, Ukraine would

31:16

pass with flying colors, 300 plus votes Democrats

31:20

Republicans problem. Again, goes back to

31:22

Speaker Johnson in this faction of

31:25

conservatives who don't support helping Ukraine

31:27

anymore, who have threatened to out

31:29

him a speaker if he even

31:31

allows a vote on this. The White House right

31:33

now is really trying this pressure campaign when

31:35

the speaker went to the White

31:37

House with all the other congressional leaders, the

31:40

whole room ganged up on him and tried

31:42

to make this point that if we don't help

31:45

Ukraine, Putin wins. This is just the

31:47

start. He could try to invade another country and

31:49

it could eventually draw in the United States if

31:51

he goes after an attack on the aid out

31:53

ally. So we have to help Ukraine. But

31:56

Johnson is also thinking about his own political future. So

31:58

I really don't know. I mean, like I will

32:01

tell you, Mike Turner, the

32:03

chairman of the House Intelligence Committee has sworn to

32:05

me up and down that Johnson at some point

32:07

is gonna put this on the floor. I

32:09

don't really believe him because

32:12

I just haven't seen Johnson suggest

32:15

that he will do anything. And even in

32:17

these White House meetings, he was still demanding

32:19

a border solution first

32:21

before helping Ukraine. And yet he

32:23

rejected the bipartisan border solution

32:25

that the senators after actually came up

32:27

with. So it feels like this tangled web. Yeah,

32:31

I mean, let's talk about that both

32:33

tomorrow on Thursday, folks might be listening

32:35

to this on Thursday. So perhaps today,

32:37

Biden and Trump are both gonna be

32:39

at the southern border. This is Biden's

32:41

only second visit to the southern border

32:43

during his presidency. And

32:46

we have a polling peg here as well, which

32:48

is that 28% of Americans,

32:50

according to Gallup, now say that it's

32:52

the most important issue facing the country.

32:54

That's if voters have to choose just

32:56

one thing to select. Of

32:58

course, when you look at polling where voters can

33:00

choose any number of things, it's something

33:02

more like two thirds of Americans view the

33:04

border and immigration as an important issue. And

33:09

as we've talked about, this is an issue

33:11

that does not go down well for Democrats.

33:14

Americans trust Trump and they trust

33:17

Republicans more on immigration. In fact,

33:19

a majority of Americans today support

33:21

building a border wall. When Trump

33:23

first came onto the scene in

33:26

2015 and was talking

33:28

a lot about it, there was a big backlash

33:30

against building a border wall. So you actually

33:32

see before Trump comes on the scene, Americans

33:34

are more evenly split on a border wall.

33:36

As soon as Trump starts talking about it,

33:38

there's significant backlash against him. And the border

33:41

wall remains unpopular for much of his presidency.

33:43

Now a clear majority of Americans support

33:46

a border wall again. And so thermostatic

33:48

public opinion, I guess, is

33:50

what we like to call it. But also to

33:52

be clear, Americans are reacting to something that's really

33:55

happening on the ground, more

33:58

than 150,000 apprehensions. per

34:00

month for much of Biden's presidency, which

34:02

well surpasses the sort of less than

34:05

50,000 apprehensions per month that we were mostly

34:07

seeing during Trump and Obama's administration. And then

34:09

of course, most recently, the record breaking 300,000

34:11

apprehensions in December. So

34:16

what happens next here? You know, I

34:19

laid out the sort of public

34:21

opinion, is there a policy solution

34:24

or is immigration reform,

34:26

border security truly just completely dead

34:29

in Washington? I

34:32

would be shocked if a bill

34:34

is able to move out of Congress. I

34:37

think that Republicans,

34:42

Republican leadership specifically, Peter

34:44

Mike Johnson and him calling the

34:46

Senate border deal like basically an

34:49

open border policy means that

34:51

he now has sort of boxed himself

34:53

in to accepting anything that can actually

34:55

pass the Senate and actually get a

34:57

Biden signature. And the things

34:59

that he wants to see at the border,

35:02

I mean, they just won't ever pass with

35:04

Democrats. So it feels like Republicans are saying

35:06

my way or the highway, they are saying

35:08

that here in Congress. And that's just not

35:10

how legislation works, especially in divided government. I

35:12

do think that there's a chance we could

35:14

see Biden do some executive action on this. There's

35:17

already been some reporting about this. I

35:19

think politically, that would be really smart for

35:21

him. And like, I realized that a lot

35:23

of the executive action, it's not going to

35:25

go as far as this bipartisan border deal.

35:27

Like, if you want to totally change how

35:30

fast asylum claims are

35:32

processed, you have to throw appropriations money at that.

35:34

You have to have more judges, you have to

35:36

have more detention beds and all this kind of

35:38

stuff. So like, there's only so much he can do

35:41

from executive action. But I wouldn't be

35:43

surprised if he does something. What can

35:45

he do on executive action?

35:47

Well, you know, there's talk about, you know,

35:49

turning away migrants who

35:52

show up between ports

35:54

of entry who are trying to claim asylum and just saying you

35:56

can't, you just can't come in here, you're going to have to

35:58

go in Europe, go through it. different asylum process.

36:00

I don't know if he is able to

36:02

raise the bar on asylum like they were

36:04

trying to do in this legislation. It's a

36:06

big question mark. I actually don't know. And

36:09

the other thing that the White House could

36:11

try to do is they could try to

36:13

enact new policies that maybe won't be held

36:15

up in the courts, but they know that

36:17

and push the limits on that to

36:19

try to show the public that they actually

36:21

care about this issue. Let the courts deal with it.

36:23

It probably is going to be put on hold and

36:25

it's going to be like stooped down in the courts,

36:28

but that in theory still could protect him

36:30

politically. It gets him a headline, gets him a

36:33

number of headlines about him trying

36:35

to fight. Like student defraiveness.

36:37

Yeah. And I mean, that goes against Joe Biden's gut

36:39

instinct. I mean, he's a long time Senator,

36:42

spent decades on Capitol Hill. He sort

36:44

of used Washington as this more traditional

36:47

sense that Congress writes the law,

36:49

the executive branch carries them out. But

36:52

I mean, he should be politically taking

36:54

a lesson from Donald Trump, who when Congress didn't

36:56

do what he wanted, he did his

36:58

own executive action, went to the courts to

37:00

fight it out and was able to sort

37:03

of play to his base that way. Perhaps

37:05

Biden can do the same thing from the White House,

37:07

but play to the more independent swing voters who

37:09

want him to do more. Yeah.

37:11

I mean, this seems like a pretty toxic

37:13

issue for both parties on different dimensions,

37:15

but there's clearly demand for Biden to

37:17

do something from independent voters who say

37:19

they trust the Republican Party more on

37:21

this. Equally, though, the solution that

37:24

was proposed didn't seem like the type of

37:26

thing that would have been all that popular

37:28

with American people. It never really got pulled

37:30

because it died so quickly. So we don't

37:32

really know. The bipartisan border

37:34

bill was popular with the American

37:37

people to the tune of like

37:39

two thirds of Americans in the polling that we

37:41

had. Yeah. I'd be shocked if it wasn't

37:43

because it really, I mean, it

37:45

was a bunch of conservative policy. I mean,

37:47

we see in the polling that people want

37:49

asylum to be harder to get, right? That's

37:51

like something like across the board. This would have made it

37:53

a lot harder to get asylum. It would have like ended

37:56

what Republicans called catch and release where migrants

37:58

show up. They say. I need to

38:00

claim asylum, then they're released into the country and

38:02

sort of disappear while they're waiting for their court

38:04

date. Like that is done. And

38:06

that is like a huge concern

38:09

for, you know, Republicans and swing

38:11

voters. So I would be shocked

38:13

if it wasn't popular because, I mean,

38:15

there were some real policy wins for the right.

38:18

I was thinking the, you know, I was just

38:20

assuming that the specific proposals on stuff like

38:22

the hard, the hard cap

38:24

on any entry after a certain point

38:27

and the sort of arbitrariness of the

38:29

HHS being able to actually declare more

38:31

people fully sort

38:34

of fully granted asylum arbitrarily would

38:36

have been unpopular. But I'm happy

38:38

to be fact checked on it.

38:41

The American public has grown quite

38:43

hawkish on immigration. And I think

38:45

like... Yeah, no, the

38:47

hawkish news I think would be the popular

38:49

part. I think the sort of the bipartisan

38:51

part of this that gave authority

38:53

to HHS to allow more

38:56

people in when they

38:58

weren't meeting the cap would have been unpopular. But

39:00

again, I haven't seen the poll. This

39:02

shows that the Republicans have been much better

39:04

about spinning what's in this bill because the

39:06

bill doesn't do that. I mean, they've been

39:09

seizing on this number once you get to

39:11

5,000, that's when the border closes or

39:13

whatever mandatory closing. If

39:15

you look at the numbers right now, sometimes they're above like

39:17

10,000. So it's not that

39:20

they're allowing more people to come in at

39:22

all. In fact, there would be a higher

39:24

sense of asylum claim. Those people wouldn't be

39:26

released into the country. They could

39:28

come try to claim asylum, but most of them under

39:30

the new changes would be turned away. But

39:33

this again shows the ability

39:35

to sort of spin this as we're actually

39:37

going to open the borders as opposed to

39:39

what it would really do, which is

39:41

interesting. Yeah, I think the

39:44

sort of demands from the

39:46

left and from much of the Democratic

39:48

Party for Biden to like

39:50

not compromise in this sort

39:53

of severe of a way is probably politically

39:55

damaging for the Democrats in a year and

39:57

on – it's probably not a good thing.

40:00

their biggest single, the

40:02

issue where voters both care about it

40:04

and trust Republicans much more than Democrats.

40:07

It's clear that they have to do something, but

40:10

in an election year that's kind of a tough

40:12

prediction. All right, well this has been

40:14

a podcast full of sort of

40:16

hard-hitting contentious issues for both parties.

40:19

I want to end things on a little bit of

40:21

a lighter note and we're going to do that with

40:23

our good or bad use of polling example. We're

40:27

just weeks into this year and the

40:29

news is already non-stop. Two overseas wars,

40:31

a presidential election already testing the democratic

40:34

process, a former president in court, it

40:36

can feel impossible to keep up with,

40:38

but we can help. I'm Brad Milkey,

40:40

the host of Start Here, the daily

40:43

podcast from ABC News. Every morning my

40:45

team and I get you caught up

40:47

on the day's news in a quick,

40:50

straightforward way that's easy to understand. So

40:52

kick start your morning, start smart with

40:54

Start Here and ABC News because staying

40:56

informed shouldn't feel like a chore. Last

41:00

July, Echelon Insights conducted a

41:03

poll that I'll just say,

41:06

I'll come out and say it up

41:08

front, that I really liked where they

41:10

asked voters to identify RFK Jr. between

41:13

two photos, one of actual RFK Jr.

41:15

and one of his father. And

41:18

the responses were pretty interesting. So 59%

41:20

of respondents chose

41:23

correctly while 41%

41:25

chose incorrectly, chose RFK

41:28

Jr. father, RFK. Now

41:30

that was last summer. It's

41:33

been like eight months or

41:36

so since then. They asked this

41:38

again in their February voter omnibus

41:40

poll. And

41:42

this time 64% of

41:44

respondents chose correctly while

41:46

36% chose incorrectly.

41:49

That's up only five points

41:52

since last July in terms

41:54

of people who can correctly

41:56

identify RFK Jr. Now get

41:58

this, those who had a very

42:01

unfavorable view of RFK

42:03

Jr. correctly identified him

42:05

more than his biggest

42:07

supporters. Again, people who have

42:09

a negative view of RFK Jr. are more likely

42:12

to know who he is than people who have

42:14

a positive view of RFK Jr. Is

42:18

this a good or bad use of polling?

42:21

We'll start with you, Elliot. Yeah, I think it's

42:23

great. I think it's fun.

42:25

I think there's a sort of time honored

42:27

tradition of showing just how much the American

42:29

people know about individual politicians, and it's not

42:32

a whole lot. The thing that came to my

42:34

mind when I saw this was this polling that

42:37

came out right before the war in Ukraine started,

42:39

or maybe right after, that showed if you gave

42:41

Americans a map and said, like,

42:43

pick out Ukraine, only 30% of people

42:45

could say where it was. There's a lot of people

42:48

who said they knew where it was and then picked,

42:50

like, Greenland or Canada. I

42:52

mean, that is to some extent. Wait, Canada?

42:55

That's trolling. That's trolling. I don't

42:57

know. Well, so I think a lot of

42:59

it... I think a lot of it is

43:01

not taking the survey correctly or people just

43:03

speeding through for money, like, it's a low

43:05

quality survey respondents. But anyhow, yeah, like, look,

43:07

this is great. Showing how people are...how much

43:09

people actually know, especially when they're maybe misleading

43:11

you, the pollster, about how much they know.

43:13

It's good just to polling. It's

43:16

great. It's fun. Rachel?

43:18

Yeah, I like it too. It's definitely fun to

43:21

look at. Pardon me, also, things. You

43:23

know, RFK wants people to be confused about

43:25

this because he's really leaning on the family

43:27

name and might be sort of

43:30

hoping that people are ignorant. So it's just

43:32

a box behind, you know, the Kennedy name.

43:34

So I do think

43:36

that that percentage of people

43:38

who, like, you know, correctly identify

43:40

him well, it hasn't gone

43:42

up a lot in the past few months. Like, as soon

43:44

as they get to, like, Biden's a nominee officially. Well,

43:46

he is. Trump's the nominee officially. And now it's

43:49

like off to the races. No more primary to

43:51

worry about. No more Nikki Haley versus DeSantis, blah,

43:53

blah, blah. Like, I'm sure that those numbers

43:55

are going to probably go up a lot faster in the

43:57

next few months. But who knows? I

44:00

would expect they would. Yeah, I and I'll

44:02

say to I mean, I already said that

44:04

I like this poll. It's fun to do

44:06

a good or bad use of polling example

44:08

where we actually just unabashedly like the poll.

44:10

Oftentimes we're just during

44:12

the segment dragging polls. But

44:15

I will say like polls

44:18

that just try to be like,

44:20

oh, Americans are stupid. I don't

44:22

like those kinds of polls. And

44:24

for a lot of these questions,

44:26

it's not Americans job to know

44:28

policy details or like the ins

44:30

and outs of things that politicians

44:33

are dealing with in Washington. That's

44:35

why we have representative government. It's

44:37

because our job is to

44:39

determine who will well represent us

44:42

in Washington. And then it's those people's

44:44

job to understand the policy ins and

44:46

outs and do what's best for the

44:48

country to make it prosperous and secure

44:50

and all of those things. That's the

44:52

idea behind representative government. However, this

44:55

is not just asking Americans, do you

44:57

know where Ukraine is or do you know

44:59

X or Y detail of policy? It's

45:01

do you know the actual politician you

45:04

say that you are supporting? And

45:06

in representative government, that's really important.

45:08

That's the whole point. Right. Like

45:10

if this is going to work

45:12

where we hire

45:14

people to do the work

45:16

of making policy and hashing out differences and

45:18

whatever, you got to know who you're hiring.

45:20

You got to know the identity of the

45:23

person that you're hiring. And the fact that

45:25

people who support him the most are less

45:27

likely to know who he is than the

45:29

people who oppose him the most. Like you

45:31

said, Rachel, he probably is

45:33

into that. He probably likes that idea

45:36

to give him to give the American people

45:38

a little bit of credit. There's probably a non zero

45:40

number of people who know who he is but don't

45:42

know what he looks like. And that's fine. You don't

45:44

have to know what they look like to vote for

45:47

them or to know what they stand for. But it

45:49

is it is a good use of polling nonetheless. It's fun. All

45:52

right. And with that, we are done for the

45:55

day. Thank you so much, Rachel and Elliot. This

45:57

has been a fun podcast with

45:59

plenty of. debate. And

46:02

I'll just say before we go, I know

46:04

that the podcast schedule has been a little

46:07

bit off this week. We had our South

46:09

Carolina reaction Saturday night slash Sunday. We

46:12

have our what normally comes out on Thursday

46:14

podcast today in reaction to Michigan. We're going

46:16

to be slightly more on scheduled next week,

46:18

but only slightly. So on Monday, we are

46:20

going to preview Super Tuesday, then Tuesday night,

46:23

we're going to do a late night reaction

46:26

but then we are also going to

46:28

have a third podcast next week, a

46:30

late night podcast on Thursday reacting to

46:32

the State of the Union address. Assuming that it

46:34

still happens, I think everyone believes that it will.

46:37

Although if there is a partial government shutdown, maybe

46:39

that throws some sticks and spokes. Who knows?

46:41

But as things stand now, you can expect

46:43

three podcasts next week on that schedule. With

46:45

that, my name is Galen Droop, Tony Chow

46:48

is in the control room. Our producers are

46:50

Shane McKeon and Cameron Tratavian and our intern

46:52

is Jayla Everett. You're going to touch by

46:54

emailing us at podcasts at 548.com. You

46:57

can also of course tweet at us with any questions or

46:59

comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a

47:01

rating or review in the Apple podcast store

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or tell someone

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about us. Thanks

47:08

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