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Hello, and welcome to this podcast

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from the BBC World Service. Please

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let us know what you think and

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media podcast from the BBC World

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The.

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Welcome. To hard to work on the BBC World Service

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with me Sarah Munchkin that he

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is ago the Soviet Union collapsed and

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communist governments fell across the eastern

0:22

Europe liberal, democracy.

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appeared to have won the Cold War and

0:26

triumphed in the battle of ideas,

0:29

my guests the renowned political scientist

0:31

francis fukuyama post francis

0:33

question If humanity it arrived.

0:35

The most effective form of government where

0:38

we at the end of history. While.

0:40

In the is since liberal democracy is often seemed

0:43

in retreat and in his new book liberalism,

0:45

and it's discontents, his explored

0:47

the way in which societies have become divided

0:50

and fractious. When, Russia

0:52

invaded Ukraine the whole world changed

0:54

again Francis Fukuyama is convinced

0:56

that President Putin as miscalculated and

0:59

is heading for outright defeat. so

1:01

what does that mean for the course of history and

1:03

the Progress of liberal democracy,

1:05

Francis Fukuyama, welcome to hard top

1:08

thank you very much. You have said

1:10

that Russia is heading for out.

1:12

Point. defeat in Ukraine why

1:15

do you think Russia's going to lose well

1:17

I don't know that is going to lose or

1:19

I'm pretty sure that it's not going to win

1:22

Hooton? Had hoped for a forty eight hour

1:24

rushed to cubes he would overthrow

1:27

the democratically elected Solecki

1:29

regime put in puppet, ah

1:31

that's not going to happen I think at. This

1:33

point three weeks into the war, even if,

1:35

he manages to take to

1:37

use which don't think he will see

1:40

CAF subdue a nation of more than

1:42

forty million. People with the forces

1:44

that the has his mobilize the entire

1:47

Ukrainian nation. against him

1:50

ah and i think that in

1:52

that respect he's really lost because

1:55

his expectation was ukraine would

1:57

collapse expectation be happy to be liberated

1:59

and In Russia, it's simply not gonna

2:01

happen.

2:02

"The people we haven't seen a change in the

2:04

fire power being used and

2:06

he has immense amounts

2:08

quantities of weaponry so nice

2:11

Russia could dominate militarily"

2:13

Well it gets into kind

2:15

of technical discussion but they

2:17

have a hard time supplying their own forces

2:20

the. morale or it appears

2:23

on the russian armies extremely low half

2:25

of them are abandoning their vehicles rather than

2:28

standing and fighting us fighting

2:30

do think that there is fighting chance

2:32

that the ukrainians could actually have

2:34

forced to withdraw the full of the russian

2:36

army and impose and pretty humiliating

2:39

military defeat there is enough

2:41

Sean say backed into a corner that president

2:44

who's and could rampart the weapons

2:46

he's using whether it's chemical

2:48

or even nuclear.

2:50

Then. Nuclear part I think would

2:52

be so suicidal and don't we

2:54

can't exclude any saying that he might

2:56

do but really doubt that will happen

2:59

chemical, weapons unfortunately. May be

3:01

more plausible, but militarily don't

3:03

think that's actually going to, buy

3:06

him very, much and she's actually

3:08

committed of the larger part of the entire

3:11

Russian. Military to. this operation

3:14

so it's not like she's got infinite

3:16

reserves that she's can keep pouring into this

3:18

battle

3:19

You've described the this is a critical juncture

3:22

in world history and if Russia is defeated

3:24

it could lead to new bus of freedom

3:27

I. wonder then what you think about the west sitting

3:29

by this fight this so important

3:32

how do you feel about the fact that the west has been

3:34

united yes on sanctions

3:36

and supplying arms but not any

3:39

further

3:40

Well I think that's probably prudent

3:43

think you're no fly zone or some of

3:45

the other interventions, that have

3:47

been suggested would require directly

3:49

attacking, Russian forces

3:51

on Russian territory and territory think there are.

3:53

enough uncertainties and

3:56

dangerous to escalation of as probably

3:58

escalation prudent position i The excluded

4:00

in the future if the humanitarian

4:03

catastrophe continues if

4:06

the thing really gets completely stalemated

4:08

it may be necessary to do that but I

4:11

think of the moment Ukrainians.

4:13

are doing so much better than anybody expected

4:15

at the start of the war that you know it's

4:18

probably prudent to wait

4:19

There's. Not been uncomfortable to you because

4:21

unless of it, I guess the big guy in the playground

4:24

is fucking on the little guy and everybody

4:26

else has just standing around saying we. Really want you

4:28

to beat him, but actually you know we

4:30

don't win or going to get him.

4:32

So I have a lot of Ukrainian

4:34

friends and that's exactly the argument

4:36

that they're making and I accept that I'm in

4:39

in, a way the Ukrainians are bearing

4:42

fight not just for their own sovereignty

4:44

but it's really fight over. in

4:47

liberal democracy in the west as whole

4:49

because russia will pick on other countries

4:51

as Ukraine falls

4:54

and, so they are fighting on behalf of all of us

4:56

and I do think that. you know

4:58

we have a death to them or exactly

5:01

what the level of support That

5:03

entails is ah to

5:05

me as an open question and I don't rule

5:07

out you know direct participation

5:10

in this war, just think that the dangers

5:12

of that are fairly grave.

5:14

What an argument against it I'm in the old with

5:16

because there is A sometimes it can feel

5:18

that the West is hiding behind Nato being

5:20

a defensive alliance and therefore mustn't.

5:23

do any

5:25

Well I think the danger is that the world

5:27

will spread to other parts of Europe that.

5:30

are you know a we start attacking

5:32

russian forces in russia they started attacking

5:35

our ours lines of resupply they

5:37

start attacking targets attacking poland

5:40

and romania other plenty of was

5:42

short of nuclear weapons that this war

5:44

could become general european war

5:46

It's just that if they can't beat the

5:48

Ukrainian's mom would have thought it might shorten

5:50

the war and save some Ukrainians is those it's

5:52

the West.

5:53

Get involved well.

5:55

you know that's a calculation we may make

5:58

but worth never goes away with you

6:00

To you, you fairly confident though

6:02

that this is have that effect Russia

6:04

is not going to win. That

6:08

mean private a person is asking.

6:10

No it doesn't but I do think

6:13

that if she's forced into some

6:15

kind of a humiliating,

6:17

political retreat

6:19

or, you know an actual military

6:22

retreat it's going to be very hard for him his,

6:24

whole persona

6:27

is one of strong man and is man strong

6:29

man, isn't strong and actually

6:31

your faces defeat of i

6:34

think that you know it's possible that somebody

6:36

and that elite is going to move against

6:38

him and pay

6:39

And he'd be replaced by wat in this

6:41

world that you envisage when the critical juncture

6:44

where Russia doesn't when President Putin is weaken

6:48

what. happens to him or who is he replaced

6:50

by

6:51

Well it's hard to imagine that there's

6:53

going to be another a right

6:55

when dictator waiting in the wings is going to

6:57

be worse than him because, he's

6:59

got unlimited ambitions and he's

7:01

been willing to use the most brutal that means

7:04

to do that. i think

7:06

that's enough If he is removed

7:08

or they're going to come to some

7:10

kind of a peace settlement that will involve

7:13

withdrawal, but in week we don't

7:15

know, I mean it's impossible to predict

7:18

that sort of thing, but doubt it's gonna be worse.

7:20

And in the process.

7:22

On this war being fought to think

7:24

Ukraine should engage.

7:27

It's with consider the options

7:29

on the table when that in the ago.

7:31

Then. Asian I, don't think that

7:33

any solution that is envisaged

7:35

right now as possible, are

7:38

leaving the Russians in control

7:40

of the Donbass or, Crimea basically

7:43

a few accepted. That as accepted condition for

7:45

ending the war, you deep

7:47

reward and put them for having basically

7:50

destroyed much of your country and I

7:52

just don't think that would be. Acceptable to the Ukrainians

7:55

are at any, point now nor

7:57

you know for would a russian cease

8:00

Fire] Really given how much they've lost

8:02

be acceptable side, I really don't think

8:04

US diplomatic are so called

8:06

off ramp is really possible now until things

8:09

change on the ground, see you think Leash.

8:12

Well. Should seal itself to watch this

8:14

continued bombardment,

8:16

of Ukrainian cities and Ukraine

8:19

holding out, or

8:22

you know my hope is that actually the Russian

8:24

position could weaken. Substantially

8:26

in, the next coming days

8:29

and him week, or so but like

8:31

I. said i'm open to a

8:33

more serious involvement if you know

8:35

if that doesn't happen Right? And the west

8:38

of the world this critical juncture in world

8:40

history with new birth of freedom, what,

8:43

does what we are watching mean for

8:45

the rest of the well? I think of has big

8:47

implications, Prudence

8:49

Russia is at the center of

8:51

a broad authoritarian alliance

8:53

the other big power waiting in the wings was

8:55

obviously China, but, you know. There are

8:58

many other countries are serious there's

9:00

Iran there's Venezuela others, Nicaragua

9:03

that many countries that have turned to authoritarian

9:05

governments and they've gotten, direct support

9:08

from Russia in. their efforts

9:10

to he will spread dictatorship

9:13

of and so even if food news

9:15

forced to back down it's not the

9:17

end of the struggle i think you know

9:19

the world has ceased to be

9:21

divided between the old left and right

9:23

of the twentieth century and it really is a struggle

9:25

between countries that you

9:28

know really Seriously

9:30

liberal democracy and those that

9:32

and are eager. to spread

9:34

authoritarian governments However, this

9:36

plays out you called.

9:38

Wouldn't that? this has undermined

9:40

popular

9:42

Ah it's weaken them are

9:44

you know if you look around the world Marine Le

9:46

Pen Eric's of more Donald Trump

9:49

viktor, Orban. orban lot of the

9:51

leaders of these populace

9:53

these new populist movements all

9:55

expressed sympathy for put

9:57

them at some point you know of some early

10:00

Point. And, many of them

10:02

have been forced to retreat from that because

10:04

it's obviously, you know just a very

10:06

cruel and kind of absurd

10:08

position to take in light. Of what

10:10

people can see it all through their own

10:12

eyes on their television, screens so

10:15

I think it has out impose

10:17

has kind of moral clarity on

10:20

the world where. People could imagine

10:22

their food and was just and nationalist like them,

10:25

but still basically not that terrible

10:27

person, and now think they see the

10:29

direction as kind of populist. Politics

10:32

is leading alchemists talk about that moral

10:34

clarity talk about the cassette years ago.

10:36

you said western liberalism

10:38

had triumphed everone it's ideological

10:41

Editors and would end up as the single

10:43

form of government over the long term

10:46

in. your latest book liberalism and

10:48

it's discontents you recognize

10:50

and analyze why Liberalism

10:53

hasn't been in retreat. Do

10:55

you think what we are seeing now is

10:57

effectively a correct? To that

11:00

retreat and will restore. Faith and

11:02

liberalism reinvigorated.

11:04

If. The optimistic scenario

11:08

or, materializes is prudent

11:10

is forced to back down yes I think it will

11:12

help, think that

11:14

you know the, problem with

11:16

our faith in. Liberal democracy

11:19

is in democracy way we've gotten too comfortable

11:21

and and, really complacent or

11:23

since the fall of communism and, ninety

11:25

one or we've gotten used to

11:28

peace. And prosperity and so

11:30

we've, forgotten what real tyranny is

11:32

like, what real military aggression his life

11:35

and think the reaction of the

11:37

Western democracies and

11:40

the NATO alliance has. Been you know nothing

11:42

short of? remarkable and especially nothing germany

11:45

which have been the you know the country

11:47

most sympathetic to russia that you

11:50

know was that and way the weak point

11:52

of the with western alliance there

11:54

transformation has been nothing short of

11:56

miraculous us after this russian

11:58

aggression Though do think that

12:00

the solidarity with in the NATO alliance

12:03

is really been revived to

12:05

an extent that we've really not seen since

12:07

the Cold War.

12:08

You do a thing as good thing that part of the

12:10

end of history idea was

12:12

that force would no longer be appropriate

12:15

or needed, and this

12:17

is so and how wrong that was.

12:18

Well yes that's just,

12:21

to be fair never said that history

12:23

was somehow this automatic mechanism

12:26

that went on despite the actions

12:28

of you know individuals we still have

12:30

human agency. and i think

12:33

it's pretty clear that is people don't believe

12:35

and liberal democracy or if

12:37

they don't fight for it if they don't constantly

12:39

struggle for it's not gonna happen and

12:41

that's think that's useful reminder

12:44

to everybody reminder can sit down can spending two percent

12:46

of gdp on defense is it good thing

12:48

because i'm good thing definitely

12:50

The offending liberal democracy was.

12:52

when we can you talk about What this

12:54

will mean for populists? Nicholas

12:59

feral in the spectator rights,

13:02

that the war puts the raise on debt true of

13:04

most European right wing populists.

13:07

that the sense to the nation state and national sovereignty

13:10

back as the top of the political agenda

13:12

exposes the dishonesty of automatically

13:14

branding such parties as anti

13:16

immigrant or anti refugee poland costs

13:18

governed by the nationalists law and justice party is

13:20

taken in one point nine million ukrainian

13:23

refugees more than the rest of the world put

13:25

together i'm it's it does it's

13:27

was some would argue vindicate

13:30

and press it's and rise in nationalism

13:33

The result of what we're saying. Would

13:35

you accept that earth?

13:37

So first of all nationalism

13:39

can be a good thing or it can be bad thing

13:42

or, we've seen the bad effects

13:44

in Russia nationalism because their

13:46

national identity, is somehow.

13:48

inseparably are connected

13:51

to dominating all of their weaker neighbors

13:53

but There is another concept of

13:55

nation that isn't inherently aggressive

13:58

and it's not inherit, The

14:00

exclusives and it is compatible

14:02

with liberal values

14:05

and I think that that's the kind

14:07

of national identity that of modern

14:09

democracy really nice to cultivate,

14:12

our and think one of the weaknesses of

14:15

liberalism the universalism

14:17

mean. you know the first

14:19

and the lack of comfort with the idea

14:22

of a nation but there is liberal

14:24

nation possible and that really has

14:26

to be the core of it

14:28

It's the idea that there's no cohesive idea

14:30

to find a group together when you're focusing

14:32

on the individual, but you're talking with

14:35

in the sense of Poland been

14:37

liberal nation.

14:38

Yes. I would love Poland to be a truly

14:41

liberal nation and the reason

14:43

that it wasn't or it was heading

14:45

the wrong direction was, that

14:47

the law and justice party was. Eroding

14:50

the rule of law it was manipulating

14:52

it's own judiciary, and

14:54

you know frankly it was willing to take

14:57

in ah you know fight Ukrainians

14:59

but not so happy with. People from the Middle East

15:01

and still it's still think that kind

15:04

of hypocrisy. that hypocrisy

15:06

still there and in welcome

15:08

to the for once the immediate ukrainian crisis

15:11

as subsides

15:12

When you're like me over putting in the past tense

15:14

as if they're not like that and.

15:16

"No, they aren't and of a conciliatory, but

15:18

look, I mean, anyone that's doing what they're doing

15:21

to accommodate these Ukrainian refugees

15:23

has my support right now, it's a matter

15:26

of timing", Okay says.

15:28

Nationalists yes not live

15:30

not liberal Democrats but but,

15:33

is that better than the some of the alternative

15:36

Well, you have to have to take

15:38

what you can guess right, right?

15:40

There is something of them and that some it

15:42

was another an argument, put

15:44

by the right of Ross Douthat, which

15:47

is that people disapprove in which ultimate the disapproval

15:49

of Polish nationalisms and

15:52

it does suddenly seems this

15:54

crucial. bulwark for

15:56

the liberal democratic west i

15:58

mean is that something you are In all the night

16:00

so.

16:01

Though. Of course like you can't

16:03

have democracies just as a

16:05

an abstract point, of reference

16:08

democracy has to be embedded in

16:10

an actual nation, that's what

16:12

people fight for. And so they're always fighting

16:14

for some, combination of

16:17

an ideal you know about just

16:19

form of government but they're also fighting for

16:21

their countrymen. and for you know the

16:23

place that they know and have grown up

16:25

in and you do need in think that combination

16:28

of both see idea but

16:30

the Actual embodiment of

16:32

that idea in are you know in place

16:36

with? fellow citizens are so

16:38

you know we act out of combination of these

16:40

motives all the time Okay, so.

16:43

Somebody his as.

16:45

It sounded approving of what President

16:48

Putin has been doing his,

16:50

former US President Donald Trump

16:52

he admired the presentations

16:55

describing him as guy who's very savvy

16:57

and he described the interference Ukraine

16:59

is a genius move this was at the

17:01

outset. not

17:03

how do you reconcile his

17:05

and next and his possible The to reelection,

17:07

of course. I'm with you

17:09

claim that. The liberal democracy.

17:12

If the most efficient form of government and.

17:14

Ultimately, will win out well, you know,

17:16

that's probably been the most disappointing.

17:21

Developments. You know him in recent

17:23

years, I mean, had really thought

17:25

that, the American people could

17:28

make mistake or but that they would

17:30

correct that pretty quickly because they. Had,

17:33

had basic commitment to democratic

17:35

values and think that one of the things

17:37

we've, seen is that under

17:39

the influence of the very clever

17:42

demagogue like Donald Trump. A lot

17:44

of Americans, can be you know bamboozled

17:46

into believing a lot of things are simply

17:49

are not sure simply mean something like seventy, percent of

17:51

Republicans believe that. The twenty

17:53

election was stolen is based. election was total

17:55

lie or and yet because

17:58

of the you know the poll The

18:00

charismatic. Demagogue like trump

18:03

that's. where they are so in they

18:05

don't like great

18:06

It will always be the poll of

18:08

a demagogue of demagogues went there.

18:11

Well. Yes, so

18:13

the other thing guess to say is that,

18:15

you know in a way that's the wisdom of the American

18:18

founding fathers you don't rely

18:20

don't simply having. Good, leaders, you

18:22

have leaders system of checks and balances

18:25

that limit the power of

18:27

anybody that selected, even if they are

18:29

legitimately elected and that's

18:31

why you know having an. Independent judiciary

18:33

that's why having that's free media that's

18:35

why having that's you know separately, elected

18:38

legislature you know are

18:40

important can't components

18:42

of important of, true constitutional A.

18:44

System and I think that Fall Trump was

18:46

think office, he couldn't do a lot of the things

18:49

like build wall against Mexico

18:51

that she wanted to do because we do.

18:53

Have these checks and balances,

18:55

i do think that you know in a way

18:58

it does show the strength

19:00

of that kind of institutional

19:02

system that again

19:04

is not dependent institutional Simply having

19:06

good leaders but also limits power

19:08

so that regardless of who's elected

19:10

their, there are limits to what they can do. Do

19:13

you think he'll be the next Republican candidate? I

19:16

honestly don't know sure hope not I,

19:18

think that's, it's possible

19:21

that by the time the got to twenty fours

19:23

he's gonna. be old news

19:25

but i must say Don't

19:27

really see an alternative to him at the moment

19:30

in. a new about liberal liberalism and

19:32

it's discontents you wouldn't look at that address

19:34

some of the challenges facing nipple to

19:36

me

19:36

The hey up some of them from within

19:38

countries we talked about this challenge

19:40

of know cohesive idea and

19:43

a, novel is that of identity

19:45

politics which you sort of dive

19:47

into. but they're all In

19:51

their own groups that are marginalized,

19:53

oppressed abused within liberal

19:55

democracies and, i

19:58

did see politics is an and The sound

20:00

of a reaction. That said, you

20:02

recognize that sort of there are

20:04

groups who.

20:05

The case of course look there's

20:07

really two forms of identity politics

20:09

so that. the form of that

20:12

i think is completely supportable is

20:14

when identity politics is the fulfillment

20:17

of liberal ideals in ideals liberalism

20:19

is based on based notion of universal

20:22

human equality that we all have all have

20:24

moral core that gives us dignity

20:26

that needs to be respected by governments

20:29

and You know in many forms

20:31

are you know Martin Luther King to begin

20:33

with and without was their understanding

20:36

that he wanted African Americans to

20:38

share in the rights that

20:40

all Americans are had there's.

20:42

another form of identity politics

20:44

that basically challenges That

20:47

liberal notion that basically says that

20:49

are lived experiences are so different

20:52

from one another that they're basically not. Manfred.

20:55

With one another and therefore we

20:57

can't treat people as individuals, we have

20:59

to look first of what groups are born

21:01

into and then, you know,

21:03

deal with them as a group. And

21:05

I think that that's fundamentally

21:08

not liberal, mean you end up, you know, in

21:11

the best of circumstances.

21:12

How do you counter that because I knew deal

21:14

with lines and remedies some of these things around

21:16

that scene of the that those who should be not

21:18

complacent campaigning for liberal democracies need

21:21

to do things, how do you challenge?

21:23

What? You challenges by pointing,

21:25

out that it challenges

21:27

other fundamental of liberal

21:30

principles, of for example

21:32

in all lot of our identity

21:34

politics in the United States has

21:36

really interfered with. Freedom of speech,

21:39

or so on especially in elite

21:41

institutions like universities are in

21:43

the. arts or in are you there

21:45

are certain things you simply can't say because

21:47

they contradict certain ideas

21:49

of social justice there are issues

21:52

of due process that you know that interfered

21:55

with that births are in was a

21:57

product of this kind of identity politics

21:59

so With each one of these I think

22:01

it's important to defend liberal ideals

22:03

and say you. know the social

22:06

justice claims are cracked

22:08

up to a certain point that they can't interfere

22:11

with these other ideals

22:13

And in ah discuss, we have not talked about

22:15

China and in your what you

22:17

are hoping it. The to reinvigorate. You

22:19

should know liberal them, democracy, do

22:22

you want the rest of the world's the west to

22:24

get tougher? On China or?

22:27

Ah. I think that China since

22:29

two thousand and thirteen when she didn't

22:31

thing took over has, been shifting

22:33

from a kind of ordinary authoritarian

22:36

state to essentially totalitarian

22:38

one in. Which the Chinese Communist

22:41

Party wants to control basically

22:43

the most minute, or aspects

22:45

of their citizen's behavior and

22:48

they've been projecting their power outwards

22:50

in many ways they're not.

22:52

As risk prone as put in,

22:54

his but that challenge is

22:56

going to come it's gonna come against, taiwan

22:58

and you know for their parts of asia

23:01

in their first instance and we have to be ready for

23:03

that consistently i thank

23:05

you very much for coming on heart of thank you very much

23:07

for having

23:10

Ukraine's capitalist mode as the

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early sirens wailed once more.

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