0:08

Hello there everybody, welcome to this

0:10

episode of A Thing. My

0:12

name is Chris and I'm so happy to

0:14

have you here and I'm also with Jim

0:16

McCormick who I will introduce in just a

0:18

moment and also our celebrity producer Dave

0:21

Piper. I want to thank DraftKings for

0:23

continuing to sponsor this show. We love

0:25

DraftKings. I'll talk about them a little

0:27

bit more in a bit.

0:29

Hi Jim, how are you? I'm good.

0:31

1-1 vs.

0:34

0-4 was nice from last week. It

0:37

wasn't exactly a great divisional weekend but it was a

0:39

fun, I mean I wouldn't say fun

0:41

because I wanted other things to happen.

0:43

I wanted the roar to be restored

0:46

as the kids would say. I was a Lions

0:48

fan. I

0:51

had a good story real quick. I had

0:53

a friend watching the game with and

0:55

he watched the first half and fell asleep of

0:58

the NFC game and

1:00

then he woke up and was like

1:02

what happened? So that was cool. He

1:06

just couldn't believe it. We're going to talk about that fire. This is

1:09

our show in between the shows. This is not

1:11

really a Super Bowl preview show

1:15

yet although I'll ask Jim a little bit about the

1:18

Super Bowl but that's more for next week when we'll

1:20

talk about how we think the game might go in

1:22

depth and talk about props and all that stuff. That's

1:24

for next weekend. We're

1:26

going to do some looking back Jim. I'm not sure if

1:28

you listen to the flagship podcast, to the main one

1:31

but like I kind of promised that we would

1:33

talk about the NFC and NFC Championship games respectively

1:35

because I didn't really do it on the main

1:38

show so people listening in the podcast feed and

1:40

not watching on YouTube. First of all, don't I

1:42

sound more handsome than I am? Also, wouldn't

1:45

you imagine you're going to get a

1:47

little talk here about how two teams

1:51

went into the game with clean pants and

1:54

emerged not so much with the clean

1:56

pants. But we will

1:58

say, first of all, Let's let's

2:00

congratulate Aaron Flynn a YouTube

2:03

viewer who predicted both of

2:05

the the point spreads correctly

2:08

Last week that would be having the Chiefs

2:10

and then having the Lions So way to

2:12

go Aaron and you and I Jim we

2:14

kind of we flipped, you know,

2:16

we got the first one, right? I got the second one, right?

2:19

My best bet of the week though was the over

2:21

in the second game. That was easy That was like

2:23

almost by halftime and your best bet I think was

2:25

the over in the other one had that one go

2:29

It went like the Ravens game plan. It

2:31

was good. Yeah Yeah,

2:34

didn't go but and then props I think we

2:36

were a little we were a little mixed but

2:38

overall fun fun fun weekend for sure like lots

2:40

and lots to talk about I'm

2:43

gonna get the Super Bowl the initial Super Bowl

2:45

questioning of you out of the way upfront. I

2:49

just want sort of first blush thoughts of

2:52

Four years ago. We were also innocent.

2:54

Yeah, I mean that's gonna be a storyline

2:57

right there He's right before kovat right before

2:59

I remember where I was for the first Chiefs

3:02

49ers Super Bowl And I remember having

3:04

letting people breathe on me and not being worried about it Here

3:07

we are four years later. It's the same two teams a

3:09

little fatigue for you. Just thinking about

3:11

these two teams playing a big game Yes

3:15

It's so interesting because I had like

3:17

Philadelphia somehow was rooting for Andy Reid

3:19

like in a weird like Because

3:22

we just like Philadelphia had just won. I keep saying we

3:24

which is just a disease Like

3:26

as if I don't play with the Philadelphia Eagles. I

3:28

have no I'm not a stakeholder Jeffrey Laurie Laurie does

3:30

not respond to my text. It just goes like I'm

3:34

not sure it's Jeffrey Laurie. Actually, I think it's the wrong

3:36

number the point being It

3:39

was an innocent time like right like

3:41

meaning it was like Jimmy Garoppolo He's

3:43

harmless pat hadn't won yet, and then

3:45

they did and now I'm done with them I

3:47

don't want to do anymore stop it. You

3:49

know it's like Mission Impossible Five like

3:51

I don't want to watch that. I'm sorry But

3:54

then I get seven but also so are

3:57

the Niners cuddly as a as an alternative.

3:59

They're like the they're favored and

4:01

you know they're really good and and

4:04

they feel like they've fallen a little on hard

4:06

times. It's funny

4:08

so I'm gonna have Matt Landy's from props and hops

4:10

on the main podcast next week to do more Super

4:12

Bowl Talk. Jim you and I are gonna do the

4:14

one where we make picks and don't know what the

4:16

hell we're talking about then I'll talk to Matt and

4:20

Matt will actually give us a

4:22

real perspective on how people are

4:24

handicapped. So I watched the championship

4:26

games with Matt and his wife

4:28

Alison and they ended and I said

4:31

well Chiefs are probably favored here right like

4:33

just based on how they've played lately and what

4:35

the Chiefs just did in winning these two road

4:37

games and what the Niners defenses

4:40

looked like and how the Niners really shouldn't

4:42

have won either playoff game like probably the

4:44

Chiefs right he goes you're wrong you're

4:47

bad at this and and

4:50

and he said I guarantee you it's a

4:52

field goal or just under and sure enough Matt looks

4:54

at an offshore book who get the lines first it

4:56

was two and a half within 30 seconds

4:59

he goes oh no

5:01

it's two now and it

5:04

stayed so far since we're recording this on

5:06

Friday like whatever nine days before the

5:08

Super Bowl it's still two and

5:10

it's it's not the Chiefs I was wrong it's the Niners

5:12

I have to say I'm surprised. I am

5:15

too it's almost like the

5:17

regular season is heavily baked into that I

5:19

suppose like the wind differential and everything but

5:21

yeah just just straight up like I'm not

5:23

just gonna say the quarterback career I'm just

5:25

gonna say the last two weeks of quarterback

5:27

play my home's has been

5:29

peerless and Brock pretty is

5:31

kind of like like

5:35

I don't know like a country music

5:37

Jimmy Garoppolo like I don't know like

5:39

JC Penny JC Penny Jimmy I don't

5:41

know like I think

5:43

it's that's a little unfair I think they're

5:46

very different styles no I know I do

5:48

yeah they are level of quarterback maybe maybe

5:50

similar from Garoppolo's piece but they're pretty different

5:52

styles all right so whatever we're

5:54

gonna talk more about the San Francisco Kansas City game

5:56

there's so much more time to talk about it and

5:58

you know Jim I've never been happier not to

6:00

be going to Radio Row. I've been

6:03

to Radio Row a couple times and didn't like

6:05

it and this year with these

6:07

two teams, boy am I, you know, the

6:09

dumb level of discourse of dumb topics that

6:11

people are going to latch onto. I'm just

6:13

very happy not to be partaking

6:15

in that. So instead let's cast our lonely

6:17

eyes back at, let's

6:20

face it, we're mostly going to talk Ravens and Lions

6:22

here, but it's

6:24

worth talking about. And so I'll do

6:26

them in chronological order. We'll do

6:28

the AFC game first even though I'm kind

6:30

of more interested in the NFC conversation because

6:32

we get to talk about analytics. You

6:36

know, nobody scores in that

6:38

second half, right? I guess the Ravens scored the very end,

6:40

but it's 17-7 half. It's 17-7 for most of it. You

6:45

know, Mahomes was excellent and I think

6:47

you can easily make the argument that

6:50

they probably could have pulled up a bigger number if they had

6:52

to. Like they were

6:54

looking for the clock to, but that's so, I mean,

6:56

I think the Ravens just played better in the second

6:58

half on defense and they decided, okay, maybe this Travis

7:00

Kelsey guy shouldn't kill us, you know, and then he

7:02

kind of didn't. The

7:04

story and the coaching problems

7:06

come on the Ravens offense

7:09

and also that thing that

7:12

winning organizations have, that the Chiefs have, that

7:15

it was very clear when they got pressured,

7:17

the Ravens did not have, which is, hey

7:19

man, maybe don't commit 700 penalties.

7:21

Hey man, maybe don't be so jacked that

7:23

you have to taunt someone, all

7:25

that stuff. You can take it from

7:27

wherever you want, but I just say John Harbaugh did not

7:30

have a good day. He

7:32

did not because going into the game,

7:34

I was looking to him as my,

7:37

like I want to aspire to have John

7:39

Harbaugh because that's Nick Sirianni's very bootleg

7:43

role, which is now a game manager because he's

7:45

just, you know, Harbaugh's

7:47

specialty is, I suppose, defense, but it's really special

7:50

teams. My point is, I wanted to

7:52

make myself feel better for my own team. It didn't

7:54

work out the whole idea of like, use the front

7:56

of house manager. But yeah,

7:58

they didn't seem, It was strange, they

8:01

did not play favorites or home favorites. I don't

8:03

know. And they, and

8:05

I still do wonder, I guess it was Spags just

8:07

had this great game plan and it was executed so

8:10

well. But

8:12

I understand it's like people, analytics people tend to

8:14

want to get away from the run. But

8:17

in this case, it's part of the identity and they

8:19

just didn't run even when the game was closed. I

8:22

thought that was strange. And then it's like they

8:24

read the halftime tweets and came out running in

8:26

the second half and when it wasn't really appropriate

8:29

in terms of like game flow. It

8:31

was just interesting. If you told me one of the

8:34

teams was going to run it 32 times and like

8:36

regardless of efficiency continue to commit to like own the

8:38

game and keep the one player off the field, I

8:40

would have bet it was the team in purple. But it

8:43

was Pacheco who was just running into a wall over

8:45

and over. It wasn't the

8:47

Gus Edwards bus crashing into walls. It was interesting.

8:50

Yeah I mean eight running back carries or

8:52

something like not enough. I

8:56

don't know. I mean I've gone back and

8:58

watched it again. And to some degree I understand because

9:00

the Chiefs, I mean the Spaggs showed his

9:02

hand. They ran

9:04

blitzed. They brought pressure constantly. They had guys in

9:07

the lane. I mean the Ravens came out trying

9:09

to run on the first drive. The Chiefs go

9:11

down score. Then the Ravens go down score also.

9:13

And on that drive they ran great. Gus Edwards

9:16

had a huge, huge chunk run up the middle

9:18

on that drive. But then every

9:20

time Justice Hill carried it, he just got met by

9:22

a safety. And honestly

9:24

it's where the problem isn't so much the

9:26

scheme. The problem there I think is just

9:28

Justice Hill stinks at football and

9:31

isn't going to make the safety miss.

9:34

At some point it just becomes about not scheme. Hey,

9:36

that guy's trying to tackle you. Could you please not

9:38

allow him to do that? That

9:41

was Justice Hill couldn't do it. And

9:44

they did get away from it. But

9:46

I think it was alignment and they realized that

9:48

the few times that, you look at yards

9:51

per carry, obviously a terrible stat. It was like seven

9:53

one yard runs and then a 23 yard run. I'm

9:58

not even mad at them I guess. not for like

10:00

calling running back runs. Why didn't

10:02

Lamar run more? That's what I was gonna say. Yeah,

10:05

there wasn't any zone reads, there wasn't any design. I

10:07

do get your saying, Justin Reed was like a linebacker.

10:09

He was like a dime linebacker the whole time, just

10:11

crashing. Right. Spags,

10:13

I would say that Spags just had a brilliant game. They

10:15

had it, and I guess I suppose it speaks to like

10:17

the defense that the Chiefs have. Like the whole idea was

10:19

this is the best defense the Chiefs have faced. It was

10:22

also the best defense the Ravens have faced, you'd suppose, like

10:24

in terms of, well, maybe

10:26

the best scheme, regardless of talent, like

10:29

they scheme them so well. It

10:31

was strange, like Lamar, there's these regression talks

10:33

or can you play from the pocket? Like

10:36

they had, they just had an incredible recipe

10:38

for him. Also at the same time, this

10:40

is a different conversation without that fumble, like,

10:42

right? So it's interesting just this game came

10:44

down to those things, obviously. I mean, that

10:46

was just such a huge play. Like

10:50

that was the biggest win percentage switch of

10:53

the week, maybe of the season

10:55

in terms of its consequence, right? So who

10:57

knows what happens then? But I also agree with you that

11:00

there probably would have, maybe I can't predict this, but the

11:02

Chiefs did like kind

11:05

of accept their, they did. Yeah, yeah,

11:07

yeah, yeah. Yeah, no,

11:09

I think they did. I mean, you

11:12

got Zae Flowers getting a personal foul lording

11:14

over somebody after a catch in the first

11:16

half. You get Zae Flowers fumbling at the

11:18

goal line because these people

11:20

are still not coaching people to not extend the ball

11:22

when it's gonna be first down from the one yard

11:25

line. Lamar Jackson. Isn't

11:27

that a coaching point? Like, isn't that,

11:30

like, that your players have to know that

11:32

you can't do that. No, you can't. And not be a

11:34

hero. Yeah. It's like, we're far

11:36

enough along now, you know, and the fricking Chiefs just

11:39

suffered it against the Bills. Meekle Hardman doing it and

11:41

fumbling at the end zone. That's the problem. If you

11:43

fumble at the end zone, goes up the back of

11:45

the end zone, you don't have the ball anymore. And

11:50

then just, you said

11:52

it so well and I didn't really, they didn't play

11:55

like a favorite. They played like

11:57

they needed to be the, you know.

12:00

the stereotypical bully who's really insecure underneath

12:02

it all, you know, like that's

12:04

like, you're not gonna come into our

12:06

house, like we're gonna put our kicking net in your way

12:09

or you know, we're just like a whole bunch like, we're

12:11

gonna, I

12:13

don't know, man, like that team didn't seem right.

12:17

They, they have to stop the Chiefs, right?

12:19

They kick a field goal, they're down seven, they kick off. The

12:21

Chiefs first play, the

12:24

Ravens have 12 men on the field. Way

12:27

to go. And now they know it's

12:29

first and five, so they are gonna take an

12:31

intentional offside to make a first and 10 again,

12:33

which is completely free to them. And

12:36

who was it? Was it? Was it,

12:38

what's his name from who was on the Bears? The

12:41

linebacker I've just named flat in my head. Oh,

12:44

Rokwan Smith. Nevermind.

12:47

Yeah. Yeah. Rokwan

12:50

goes offside intentionally, but does it so

12:52

hard that he knocks over the guard

12:54

and gets a personal thing. That's bad coaching.

12:57

Yeah, they lost it. They

12:59

did. I would say

13:01

they lost it, but they came in a game that way

13:03

kind of like, in terms of like you said, just trying

13:06

to set some tone that wasn't, it was, they

13:08

were like the, like in like the

13:10

Fresh Prince, they were like the opposing team that

13:12

was like feisty and mean like, or like, or

13:14

like team wolf, you know, the other guy's team

13:16

wolf. That's what it is. These are

13:18

very contemporary references. Well, I only work, I only work

13:20

within 1986 to 1994. Okay.

13:25

So, I mean, this is not

13:27

to, the whole

13:29

point of my saying this is the Chiefs are not the team

13:31

you're going to do this to. The

13:33

Chiefs are not going to be like, Oh my

13:36

God, they're crazy. I'm so scared now. Like this

13:38

is like playing late career Brady. This is like

13:40

playing, they're the button

13:42

down organization. They're the ones, Michael Hardman

13:44

last weekend, notwithstanding who don't do this

13:46

stuff to themselves. Right. I

13:49

mean, they did it back in the day when D Ford

13:51

was offsides against Tom Brady and they have to chip chip

13:53

game, but it's been a long time since then. And

13:55

like, we're not, we're not going

13:57

to intimidate the chiefs like they're. They're

14:00

buttoned down in the way that the best supposed

14:02

best team in football was supposed to be buttoned

14:04

down This is this is really honestly coming full

14:06

circle a big meant to be a big compliment

14:08

to the Chiefs because talent wise I don't think

14:10

they're rosters as good as Baltimore and I proved

14:12

it last week by being wrong I'm picking this

14:14

game, but they're just they've

14:17

got it together in ways that I grant you that

14:19

it's hard to do but they have figured out the

14:22

right guys and the right coaches and the right everything

14:24

and In ways the Ravens

14:26

clearly were not even though we thought they were

14:28

and the ways the bills Definitely are not and

14:30

the ways the I mean the Bengals were a

14:32

couple weeks a couple years ago and Burrell gets

14:34

hurt But like the Chargers have all this talent.

14:36

They're the opposite of button down Well, this

14:38

is why the Chiefs are probably gonna win the Super Bowl

14:40

frankly is because they just get it Yeah, there's a composure

14:43

gap. I guess whatever you call it. It was just great

14:45

a composure gap and Yeah,

14:47

and then it helped that the Ravens lost like

14:49

four of their five best coaches and then their

14:51

front office got raided So that's always

14:53

fun. I mean like the Orioles made a trade. I don't know what

14:56

that means but go. Yeah, well Well,

15:00

we'll see future Ravens I mean, you know

15:02

and like let's not let more off the

15:04

hook because right sure they flowers fumbling is

15:06

terrible But that pass on a

15:08

first down with a chance still to

15:11

be down three points Where oh all it takes

15:13

is Isaiah likely throwing up his hand and you're

15:15

just like I trust him and he's triple covered

15:18

Okay, man, I'm pretty sure Mark Andrews is back. Maybe

15:20

we could do that, you know, that was horrible. It's

15:23

a terrible throw Yeah, no, I was I was surprised

15:25

in general like how often he He

15:27

didn't like take time either There was a couple

15:29

plays where I thought he could have created it

15:31

I'm still baffled by the lack of scrambling or

15:34

broken play magic that like in regards to like

15:36

especially when things weren't working It was kind of

15:38

like hey, buddy remember that thing you can do

15:40

it was like Like

15:42

he just it's like he showed up

15:44

at a birthday party and just disappointed all the kids he

15:47

just wasn't a good magician And

15:50

let's be clear like there's that doesn't

15:52

mean Lamar Jackson sucks No, and

15:54

it doesn't mean he's not one of the best quarterbacks in the

15:57

league But it does mean that he's not ready

15:59

and maybe He never will be like there's

16:01

a little extra step there especially on a

16:03

team like the Ravens where there's

16:05

not a lot else You know This is not

16:07

a dominant running game at least not as currently constant

16:09

as it was constantly in that game and like it

16:12

He needed to be Lamar and if you couldn't be they

16:14

weren't going to win and we all thought he would because

16:16

he's the MVP And it's a it's

16:18

a step back. Of course. It's a reassessment.

16:21

He's still good. You're a raven fan. You're

16:23

still happy He's your quarterback. He's still relatively

16:25

young you hope that there's better times ahead

16:27

But like you have to say it's

16:29

not it was awful. It was awful a

16:31

bit really bad performance in second half. Great All

16:34

right, let's let's get to the main event

16:39

Because we get to talk about analytics because of course that's

16:42

my favorite thing I mean, here's

16:44

the thing Jim This

16:47

game clearly turns on the

16:50

actual Lions players Evacuating

16:53

their bowels in the third quarter Absolutely

16:57

This is not about in the end. It's not about

16:59

the coaches and it's not about a coach's decision this

17:01

was what you know, this is the players and and

17:05

the Lions players played unbelievably well in the first

17:07

half on both sides of the ball and then

17:10

Lost their frickin minds in the third quarter

17:12

We have plenty of other things to talk

17:14

about and we're gonna spend more time talking

17:16

about those other things But we should just

17:18

kind of acknowledge that the most important thing

17:20

was that the Lions weren't good enough Yeah,

17:23

and again composure gap at least

17:25

the second half between like Gardner

17:27

Johnson's going headhunting when you're

17:29

up big makes no sense He

17:32

was waving to the crowd. That's always smart But

17:35

but more importantly like yeah, like I in

17:37

a sense I feel bad for him because of the human

17:39

side of Josh Reynolds But like talk about like win percentage

17:41

if you want to know EPA stuff like that Like that

17:43

dude left it all on the floor And

17:46

the other thing too is I think it's hysterical

17:48

that like a 12 year blocking tight end is

17:50

the face of analytics now like

17:53

like who drinks like

17:55

who eats like winter school dip during the

17:57

game and like He

18:00

doesn't just spit it. He doesn't spit it. He

18:03

eats it. He eats it. He just chews Lenny

18:05

Dykstra baseball cards. This guy's

18:07

an animal. And it's just incredible that

18:09

he's now the face of EPA and

18:11

the fourth down. But look, it's like

18:14

his aggressiveness helped get them there and the

18:16

plays were open. They were there. I don't know what to

18:19

say. It was like he ran a jump. We'll go to

18:21

it. We'll go to it.

18:23

We'll get to it. Because I know that's what we want to talk about.

18:25

I know what we want to talk about. But

18:27

let's add in Jameer Gibbs fumbling

18:30

one play. Let's add the defensive back with the

18:33

ball bouncing off his face for Brandon A to

18:35

catch. There's

18:37

so many mistakes. And the

18:40

first pass to Josh Reynolds probably should

18:42

have caught it, thrown behind him. Wide

18:44

open, throw him behind. Second one was throwing behind him. That

18:46

was the right one, yeah. But he's

18:48

Josh Reynolds. And maybe you don't throw Josh Reynolds. So

18:53

we're about to get into exactly what you

18:55

were veering into there. But I just want

18:57

to once again reemphasize I'm not calling the

19:00

Niners bad. I'm not saying they aren't worthy of being

19:02

the NFC champs. They are. They're the

19:04

worthy NFC champs. They are. But

19:07

I mean, they are because of contrast

19:09

because by comparison the Lions weren't ready

19:12

and had never been there before and

19:14

like grabbed themselves. All

19:17

right. Here's the way I want to frame analytics.

19:19

You started talking about wind shares and expected points

19:22

added and stuff like that. And I get pushback

19:24

every time I say it's made up because

19:26

it's not like entirely made up, obviously, expected

19:29

points added. I want to liken

19:31

it to IQ tests.

19:34

See if you can go with me here. This occurred to

19:36

me this week. Like what is an

19:39

IQ test? A

19:41

bunch of people got together to create a rubric where,

19:44

okay, if we ask this many questions

19:46

of this type with this number of

19:48

answers, we start to be

19:50

scientific about intelligence. We start

19:53

to be able to pigeonhole and figure

19:56

out who's smart in what ways and who's not

19:58

and all that. large,

20:00

an IQ test is going to tell you, is

20:02

going to give you a vague neighborhood, maybe even

20:04

not that vague of somebody's intelligence in

20:07

the way that expected points

20:09

by looking back at all the myriad data

20:12

that is out there about down distance situation,

20:14

all that stuff also puts you

20:16

in the neighborhood, maybe even closer than the neighborhood.

20:19

The problem I have with, quote unquote, analytics

20:21

and the way it's discussed is

20:24

I literally read stuff on Monday

20:26

that said it was the

20:28

right move and it's

20:30

not open to debate because math is

20:33

math. And

20:35

buddy, that's wrong. That's not

20:37

true. And like if that that

20:40

honestly gives the

20:42

coach a way out. Hey, man, what do you want me to

20:44

do? The math said I was supposed to do it. Would

20:48

Bill Belichick have called a timeout in the

20:50

Seattle Super Bowl? If

20:52

he had, you know, if he had a computer there and it said,

20:56

hey, man, you need the ball back like you better call timeout

20:58

here. And instead he looked over at

21:00

the Seahawks, crapping their pants, not knowing what to do.

21:03

And I think I'll just let him run a play. Right.

21:06

There's so many examples that we think

21:08

of great coaches as having a feel.

21:10

Bill Parcells having it's a

21:12

feel. It's not so it's like I'm looking these people

21:14

in the eye and I'm seeing something good or bad.

21:17

And I'm not telling and I know analytics people. I

21:21

mean, I'm an analytics person. It's all it's all good. But

21:23

like the people at the farthest end of the spectrum, I'm

21:25

going to let you talk in a second. The

21:29

other end of the spectrum, people who are

21:31

like, there's there's you have to go for

21:33

it. This is not open for debate. They

21:37

their their whole thing is I want

21:39

to get the whole momentum and

21:41

look in a guy in the eye and feel for the

21:43

guy want that out. That's not quantifiable. So I don't want

21:45

that in the mix. I think

21:48

that's stupid. And I think that's why the Lions

21:50

didn't win. So you

21:52

can take that any way you want. But like, do

21:54

you like my metaphor, Mike, my analogy between the IQ

21:56

test and the EPA? I do. Yeah.

22:00

a couple of like state teacher exams and

22:02

they have like baselines they set and they're

22:04

not always the great thing.

22:06

It's in the neighborhood, right? It's not like, it's not

22:08

telling you you're a great teacher. It's just you pass

22:10

this baseline and it's not always, it doesn't account for

22:12

the social emotional stuff. That's not the test, right? It

22:14

doesn't talk about classroom management. That's not the test. My

22:16

point being is not to be able to adopt the

22:18

full scope of what your job is just

22:21

like, yeah, like, um, there's

22:24

feel for sure. If I

22:26

was running the team, I would have kicked the field goal.

22:28

I would have kicked the field goal at the second fourth

22:30

down just because I was like, Hey buddy, let's just stop

22:32

this bleeding.

22:35

Slow it down. Yeah. And put them in a different

22:37

position and how they had to react and then change

22:39

their, it's also like we talked about styles make fights.

22:42

I've watched, I'm a big boxing fan. It's like, you

22:45

have to adapt. You can't just be like, let's keep jabbing

22:47

when the guy's like fainting the jab. It's like, you're just

22:49

not going to work. Like you have to

22:51

change your game plan adaptively. Um, I've,

22:54

I've seen it with the Eagles in a

22:56

way, like, like every week you said this Nick Sirianni comes

22:58

out and we're going to get together. We're going to change

23:00

things. We're going to change things the next week. It was

23:03

like, we did it, but now we're just wearing Kelly green.

23:08

So no, it's, it's, and the point, the

23:10

point is about like the expected

23:12

points added to like, this is

23:14

a, this gives you a 29.2%

23:16

chance of winning and this gives you a 30.1% chance of

23:22

winning. And, and that's

23:24

supposed to convince me that it's, it's

23:26

never okay not to do the 30.1.

23:28

I don't think

23:30

that's true. I don't like, we're

23:33

going to, we're going to talk here like the first,

23:35

the first field goal that they could have taken in

23:37

the third quarter after the Niners had taken the kickoff

23:39

and they'd gone down and they'd kicked a field goal.

23:42

There's a lot of people out there saying, you

23:44

know, you need to, you need to make it a three score game. The

23:46

way it was at halftime, you need to kick the field goal there period.

23:48

And that's the end of story. I don't

23:50

know. I think I'm okay with the idea that you went

23:52

like, okay, you're still way up and

23:55

you're going for the death blow. I'm

23:57

like, there are people mad that they didn't

23:59

kick the, that they didn't. go for it at

24:01

the end of the first half to put the

24:03

death blow there. Right. Okay, but still I'm okay

24:05

kicking the field goal because you

24:07

have less yardage to use because

24:10

you're right on the goal line and so the

24:13

odds are it's the last play and the odds are... And

24:17

you said it on the second one, on the second fourth

24:20

down, you said you think you would

24:22

have kicked the field goal just because they had made

24:24

so many mistakes and they were dying and they were

24:26

only down three. They could have tied it and at

24:28

least sort of righted the ship. I'm

24:30

even amenable to the idea. I just don't want to

24:32

be told that there's not a decision to be made.

24:35

Right, yeah, that's true and it's also, I guess, supposed

24:37

it's also like the context of the game had changed

24:39

by that point. The first time, they

24:42

hadn't been shown yet that the Niners could

24:44

play defense. Very,

24:46

that's such a good point. So the tone

24:48

changed. I mean, like, they came down, they

24:50

started... They basically just

24:52

were like, ah, my round's not going to beat

24:54

us. They just like completely dedicated themselves to that

24:57

and it tended to work. So yeah,

25:00

they showed up. They did the same thing in

25:02

a way against the Packers, although that was even

25:04

more of a composure gap, in my opinion. In

25:07

terms of just they fell apart in terms of reeling.

25:09

But either way, it was upsetting

25:11

for a real hater here. It was upsetting. I'm

25:14

a hater. All right, so I'll

25:16

ask you more about it. I want to thank DraftKings for sponsoring. If

25:20

you're looking for a way to play the Super Bowl,

25:22

DraftKings is a fantastic way to do it. We

25:24

would love for you to download the app. If you do, you use

25:27

the code HarrisTube, all one word, and you

25:29

make one $5 bet. Jim, they

25:31

give you $200 in bonus bets. So

25:34

all those prop bets, all those teasers,

25:36

all those totals, everything related to

25:38

the Super Bowl, and of course, all the

25:40

other sports you might want to potentially place

25:42

a small wager on, you can use

25:44

with your bonus bets when you make one $5 bet. Thank

25:48

you very much to DraftKings for continuing to

25:50

sponsor the show and indulging us,

25:52

allowing us to have these flights

25:54

of fancy intellectual conversations about a

25:56

very dumb thing. But

25:58

DraftKings, again, great. Dave

26:00

uses, Jim uses, I do not use. I'm in

26:03

California, but I would. Otherwise, again,

26:06

use that code HarrisTube, all one word.

26:08

You make one five dollar bet, you get $200

26:11

in bonus bets right away, so you could do it

26:13

right now, right as you're hearing me, right as you're

26:15

seeing us, and then you'll have that

26:17

money to play with for the Super Bowl. Thank you again to

26:19

DraftKings very much. Okay, so,

26:23

you know, we've talked about the

26:27

losers. We talked about

26:29

the losers. I kind of wanted to

26:31

continue on with the NFC Championship game, though, and ask

26:34

you about the 49er defense. You're

26:37

a connoisseur of defense. You want one of

26:39

your jobs is to pay pretty close attention

26:41

to the defensive players. I

26:45

said this to Pat Doherty on

26:47

the main podcast. Can anyone

26:49

name the last good game the San

26:51

Francisco defense played? Because I'm pretty sure

26:53

it was before Christmas. How big

26:55

is the Eagles, to be honest? They only let one

26:57

really good drive. It's been a while, especially

27:02

the full game, where it was like the first

27:05

three games they had Chase Young, and then Chase

27:07

Young obviously had that terrible start to the game,

27:09

and if you saw he completely quit on the

27:12

one Montgomery touchdown. But their

27:14

defensive line did show up at the end there. They

27:16

were starting to penetrate. Kinlaw

27:19

is just a large man, and

27:22

he was getting penetration, and then Joey

27:24

Bosa, I'm Joey Bosa, same guy. Nick

27:26

Bosa, he's healthy Bosa. Healthy

27:28

Bosa, he was relentless. I hate to say

27:30

it because he was good. Not a big fan of his, but

27:32

he was just, he

27:34

really was moving things around, and I

27:36

think that did affect, and golf doesn't

27:39

move so well. So that was great.

27:41

He did in the first half. He

27:43

did, yeah. You're right,

27:45

you're right. He was stepping up really well.

27:47

And then the thing is that Fred

27:50

Bonner is kind of a freak show, and he

27:53

was taking care of La Porta, which is

27:55

obviously another huge valve. You didn't hear him

27:57

in the second half, so I don't like

27:59

that. I don't like that they're playing well, but they

28:02

do have this tale of two halves. They're a tale

28:04

of two halves team It's just they they they whatever

28:06

they're saying at halftime is like the opposite of what

28:08

John Harbaugh says or something like that You

28:12

know, I'll grant you both so I'll grant you both

28:14

so if I played a really good game start to finish I

28:17

didn't see anybody else until the very very end

28:19

when it's desperation mode and like I Didn't

28:22

see anybody else in the defensive line. So I've

28:24

heard again just like a couple weeks

28:26

ago. I was saying I I Can't

28:29

remember which game that was Houston on kids

28:31

Houston on Baltimore Maybe so much pressure or

28:33

I don't remember but I just I wouldn't

28:36

have felt this pressure rate was extraordinarily high

28:38

I didn't feel like goth especially in the

28:40

first half. No way and and One

28:43

person pressure Nick Bosa pressure isn't enough frankly like

28:45

that shouldn't be enough It's not gonna be enough

28:47

when you're playing Patrick Mahomes. I'll tell you that

28:49

you better be coming at him from multiple angles

28:52

I grant you. Yeah, the interior linebackers are good. I

28:54

didn't think the secondary was any good You

28:57

know like all the third

28:59

quarter except except for

29:01

when they were fumbling or

29:03

you know doing something stupid like they I

29:06

Don't know. I'm not I'm wary of

29:09

the Niner defense and I guess I'm gonna beat

29:11

that drum for the next 11 days No,

29:13

that's valid. I mean because even like with

29:15

love they were just his his two poor

29:18

timing plays Just cost him a lot like

29:20

it's also the inverse being being not like

29:22

I'm not trying to go against pretty He

29:24

turns it on at the end But he

29:26

hasn't paid for his mistakes the way that

29:28

you know The Niners are

29:30

capitalizing on mistakes on their side. So yeah.

29:34

Yeah, I I also had a similar take

29:36

like going in I thought it was gonna be a small

29:39

favorite for Kansas City I'll

29:42

determine that more as I study for next week,

29:44

but that's just my initial impression Yeah,

29:47

I mean me too. I think It's

29:52

you know, you're not gonna blitz my

29:54

homes and the whole San Francisco should

29:56

be absolutely the one team That's set

29:58

up to get pressure with four because

30:00

you know all those names and they're all stars

30:03

and they're all making a ton of money and

30:05

that should be the recipe. Get

30:11

those crazy linebackers on Kelsey and

30:13

get pressure with four and everybody else plays

30:15

zone and we'll take our chances.

30:18

They should have lost to the Packers and I didn't

30:20

think the defense was very good and they really should

30:22

have lost to the Lions and I really didn't think

30:24

the defense was very good and I don't know. I

30:26

mean isn't it crazy how a month changes our minds

30:28

but like I'm to the point now where I don't

30:30

trust that defense. Yeah I mean it's a

30:33

similar feeling that I had at the end of the season about the

30:35

Chiefs offense. I would just like have

30:37

seen enough and then yeah so I suppose there is there

30:39

is the potential but I mean like the lag of it

30:41

all but maybe I'm wrong because they still have Patrick. Yeah

30:45

I mean has the okay

30:47

so I agree with you that's all we talked about

30:50

on this show for the entire season like not same

30:52

Chiefs offense we're both we're ready to pick we weren't

30:54

going to pick them against pick against

30:56

them in the cold against Miami but we

30:58

were ready to pick against them in Buffalo.

31:00

I was ready to pick against them you

31:02

learned your lesson I did not against Baltimore.

31:05

This is two games essentially that Mahomes

31:07

wasn't Mahomes lost to the Raiders at

31:09

home right like like

31:12

this offense was awful all the way through December. What

31:16

have we learned like are they playing that

31:18

much better Kelsey's making a bunch of catches

31:20

right. I

31:23

don't know I feel like I kind of stand

31:25

by the offense just kind of very

31:28

like the 13th

31:30

best offense in the league even with Patrick

31:32

Mahomes right like what matters is the defense.

31:35

Yeah I suppose they're just hitting for power and

31:37

like you know meaning like that like just the

31:39

things that weren't working. They

31:41

have some reliability that I thought they didn't

31:43

have before with Kelsey just I don't know

31:46

just looking younger. Like

31:49

his work his body control is still

31:51

incredible but he's had it wasn't a couple weeks

31:54

he was dormant for like 10 weeks right. Last

31:57

touchdown was against Philadelphia which was last time Philadelphia

31:59

was good. which was like a year ago. So

32:02

yeah, it's interesting. I mean, MBS

32:05

caught two balls one game. That's like a big

32:07

leap. But yeah, no, you're right.

32:09

Last one was unbelievably important, right? I won

32:11

the game. Yeah, no, but yeah, it's true.

32:14

Like, I suppose it's, I'm

32:16

taking confirmation by it, like there's some huge shift,

32:18

they scored 17 points. And then, you

32:21

know, the defense really like wrecked Miami.

32:23

So yeah, it's interesting. I

32:25

also suppose the way this defense is built,

32:28

it's an entirely different, strange Chiefs team. It's

32:30

an Andy Reid. It's more like, I think

32:32

it's appropriate to discuss the patch

32:34

because it feels like one of those late Brady

32:36

patch teams, like the one that beat the Rams

32:38

in that Super Bowl. It's just like, we can

32:40

suppress you. And this guy can do some cool

32:42

stuff. And that's kind of the formula. Yeah, that's

32:45

the formula. It's they have one power hitter in him

32:47

in the lineup. And the rest of it is just

32:49

we have aces pitching, like meaning just to

32:51

say like, there is suppression team though. So

32:55

yeah, yeah, I mean, I

32:57

think the 49er game plans in

33:00

these two playoff games have been offensively

33:03

have been weird. Have

33:05

been strangely to start games,

33:07

not that McCaffrey heavy and

33:10

not thrown to them really much at all, at least not

33:12

in it feels like big spots or

33:14

nearly as much as they do during the

33:16

season when we're in fantasy, we're always like,

33:18

could you just give it to me? I

33:20

don't want to die in fantasy. You know,

33:22

like now, there's nothing to wait for, like

33:24

just beat them to beat them, like, like do

33:27

it, give it to them. And they kind of

33:29

aren't. There's a lot of emphasis on Debo that

33:31

I don't know that I agree with. And and

33:33

kiddo disappears for quarters of the time. It's like,

33:35

you know, you have George Kittle, right? So

33:39

weird, weird. I mean, you know, and then

33:41

and then we'll talk about party more next

33:43

week. Like, he's played two pretty bad

33:45

playoff games and won them both. And like,

33:48

again, I don't think that means he sucks. No, I don't

33:50

think he means he's not a starting quarterback in the league.

33:53

I just think it means I heard a

33:55

good comp for him. Rich Gannon. That's good.

33:57

I like that. Yeah. I mean, MVP. Rich

34:00

Gannon was amazing, but then he lost the Super

34:02

Bowl at 35 points. So yeah, that works.

34:04

I hope that works out. Well, but like, you

34:06

know, not, he wasn't huge. But

34:10

Scrambly, like Wily. Yes. Right,

34:13

Wily, Scrambly, I mean, Purdy made great. His

34:15

running was great. His running was great. Yeah,

34:17

it's huge. And like, that could very

34:19

much get the Niners a championship.

34:21

It really could. Like, he is not a

34:23

bad player. He's not. No. But

34:26

like, like Rich Gannon, he's wildly aggressive and he can.

34:29

I mean, he could throw three

34:31

interceptions in any game he plays almost.

34:33

He's crazy, crazy aggressive. And once again,

34:35

didn't pay for mistakes. I

34:37

mean, he did early, threw a bad

34:39

pick early, right? And that was part

34:41

of why the Lions were ahead by so much. But

34:45

you know, Gannon was a gunslinger, you know, by golly,

34:47

he's like, he's going to come to town. You

34:50

knew you were getting the deep ball. And like, I kind of feel like that's,

34:52

you know, Purdy, like underwhelming athlete, tons

34:54

of moxie, good run around scrambler. And

34:57

then, you know, just super aggressive. And

35:00

like you said, you know, when Gannon got his one big

35:02

chance at the big game, the aggressive

35:04

against Tampa, didn't

35:06

work, didn't work. Remember when Tampa two

35:08

was all the rage? I remember that.

35:10

That was great. I do. Yeah,

35:13

I do. I remember when they closed, I was at veteran

35:15

stadium when they closed it with that. It was great. That

35:18

was fun. Ron Day Barber, just going back to

35:20

the hit, playing the hits, you know? Oh,

35:22

man. All right. Well,

35:24

we're not going to make picks this week. We're going to save

35:27

that for next week. I think you both you probably know where

35:29

we're both leaning as far as the point spread goes, unless we

35:31

get some crazy movement between now and midweek

35:33

next week. But we'll also have next

35:35

week, a ton of props and

35:38

other thoughts and totals and all that stuff. And

35:41

probably just talk more about how we think this game

35:43

might go. We would love it

35:45

if you would support DraftKings, because without

35:47

them, we wouldn't be making the show. You

35:50

just get the DraftKings app wherever you get your apps.

35:52

You sign up using the code HarrisTube, all one

35:54

word. You're going to be watching the Super

35:57

Bowl anyway. If you've never downloaded the app, it helps us

35:59

out a little bit. They check who uses the

36:01

codes, right? So if you use the code HarrisTube,

36:04

they'll say, hey, maybe we should sponsor that show again next year,

36:06

and that would be awesome because we would love to have them

36:08

back. And if you do that, make one $5 bet, you'll get

36:10

$200 in bonus bets into

36:12

your account instantly, and then spread that around

36:14

and have fun on Super Sunday. Jim,

36:17

thank you so much for talking really, I mean,

36:19

I felt like we needed to talk

36:22

about the losers, but you know. I like talking about

36:24

losers, I'm from Philadelphia, so it's what we do. One

36:27

early prop bet that I'm just going to throw

36:29

out there is Jason Kelsey shirtless, combine

36:31

that with the under on the anthem, and then that's a

36:33

good bet. I

36:36

think that's great. Yeah, the Taylor

36:38

Swift, I'm not going to have a Taylor Swift prop for

36:40

you, anybody, you're going to have to go somewhere else, get

36:42

that on your own time. That's going to do it. Thank

36:44

you so much for watching and or listening. Thank

36:47

you so much to Dave Piper for producing all year

36:49

and continuing to do so this week. Thanks to Jim

36:52

for being awesome and my friend. And

36:54

my name is Chris and I thank you for listening and

36:56

watching and we'll talk to you next week. Thanks

36:59

so much for watching. Please, please, please

37:01

smash that like button, write a comment,

37:03

tell us who else you'd like to

37:05

see us review film on. And of

37:07

course, best of all, please subscribe to

37:10

our channel and then click that little

37:12

bell above the subscribe button and you'll

37:14

be notified whenever we post a new

37:16

video.