0:01

Hey! It's

0:07

the Harris Football Podcast with

0:09

your host, Christopher Harris.

0:13

Welcome! Hey

0:16

everybody, welcome in! My name is Chris and I'm

0:18

going to put some words right in your face. I'm going

0:21

to put them in your face, what you do with those

0:23

words. That's up to you, but that's where they're headed. Hello

0:26

there, you yacht possums. Thank you so much for listening

0:28

today. I hope you're doing well. Three

0:31

days from today, we've got a

0:33

Super Bowl, yay! On

0:35

Sunday, I hope everybody has a wonderful

0:37

weekend with it. Have a great time.

0:41

Party like crazy if that's your thing,

0:43

but let's all resolve to stay alive,

0:45

shall we? If you're going

0:47

to be out and about and you're planning

0:49

on drinking, be smart. Ride share. Just

0:51

don't drive. Just get dropped off and

0:54

picked up. It's easy and you

0:56

will stay alive and that will be great for

0:58

everybody. It's a good goal for all of us

1:00

to stay alive. Off the top of

1:02

today's show, I want to remind you, this is the

1:05

last football podcast that I'm doing for a

1:07

little bit. Today, February 8th,

1:10

I'm going to do a show that you're listening

1:12

to right now. After that, I'm taking a few

1:14

weeks off from the football stuff. The NFL goes

1:16

pretty dark for a few weeks, so

1:18

the next time I'll make a football podcast will

1:20

be March 7th. That's when

1:23

NFL Free Agency heats up. We'll

1:25

do a preview of Free Agency on

1:27

March 7th and then the following week,

1:29

we'll have a recap of where the

1:31

big names landed. And

1:33

in the interim, I will do one other

1:36

podcast because Cousin Josh has agreed. We're going

1:38

to do the best movies of last year

1:40

podcast within the next couple of weeks

1:42

here in February. So that should be coming on the

1:44

podcast feed, also on the Juggernaut podcast feed if you

1:47

happen to subscribe to that too. That's

1:50

coming, but no more football for a

1:52

month. And so that's a little bit

1:54

of a break. The best way

1:56

to be sure that you know when a new

1:58

episode of this very stupid show... drops

2:00

of course is to subscribe on

2:03

your favorite podcast app and then

2:05

boom you'll be reminded when we

2:08

are back. In the

2:10

interim I'm taking a grand tour

2:12

of the United States heading

2:14

to Texas in a couple of weeks

2:16

after that headed for a big family

2:18

reunion in Florida and I mentioned this

2:20

last week on the show we were

2:22

thinking about doing a listener meetup in

2:24

Austin where I used to live and

2:27

that is now going to happen

2:29

Friday February 23rd in downtown

2:32

Austin at the Hyatt Centric

2:35

on Congress Avenue 7.30 p.m.

2:38

assuming my plane arrives which it should because

2:40

I'm leaving LA in the morning. We're

2:42

gonna try meeting on the eighth floor

2:45

rooftop lounge area of this hotel. I

2:47

have no real idea of how many

2:49

people are going to come. I've

2:51

also never been to this rooftop but what the heck?

2:54

Several of you sent an email saying that you're

2:56

interested and that's great. I'm

2:58

not reserving space you

3:01

know I just can't I don't know

3:03

how many people are gonna come so we're gonna show

3:05

up and we're gonna wing it and if it winds

3:07

up being a hundred people I mean

3:10

it'd be nice but it would be you know

3:12

we'll figure something out. So if you'd like to

3:14

come hang out and say hi February 23rd Friday

3:17

that's two weeks from tomorrow 7.30 p.m.

3:20

the rooftop of the Hyatt Centric on

3:23

Congress downtown. I hope to see

3:26

you there. Other than that

3:28

I don't have a ton of football

3:30

stuff off the top. We got word

3:32

here on a Thursday morning that TJ

3:34

Hockinson's knee surgery was delayed and was

3:36

serious and that he could wind up

3:38

being in a race against the clock

3:40

to be ready for week one of

3:42

2024. That stinks. He's

3:44

obviously a really good player. Lots

3:47

of NFL coaching staffs were filled

3:49

out. Cliff Kingsbury appeared

3:52

to jilt the Raiders at the

3:54

altar to go to the commanders

3:56

and be their offensive coordinator after

3:59

it seemed like The commanders had been

4:01

jilted by Ben Johnson, the Lions

4:03

offensive coordinator who stayed in Detroit,

4:05

so the fairly uninspiring

4:08

Dan Quinn will be the head coach

4:10

of the commanders and the fairly uninspiring

4:12

to me, Cliff Kingsbury, will be the

4:14

coordinator. Greg Roman, much

4:17

reviled by the time he left Baltimore as

4:19

offensive coordinator. He goes to the Chargers to

4:21

be their O coordinator.

4:24

I never really hated him in Baltimore. Luke

4:26

Gessie, who got let go by the

4:29

Bears as offensive coordinator, he went to

4:31

the Raiders instead of Kingsbury. And

4:34

the only reason I mention that is because it

4:36

probably means Justin Fields ain't going there to

4:38

Vegas. But one assumes that

4:40

Fields is getting traded somewhere because

4:43

the Bears have the one pick

4:46

unless the Bears just decide, yeah,

4:48

they're not as into Caleb Williams

4:50

as the hype machine says

4:52

they should be. Certainly, we were told

4:54

three months ago he was generational and

4:56

now some realism sets in. We'll

5:00

see. All of which is just a brief taste

5:02

of the silly season that we are going to

5:04

have ahead of us in about

5:06

a month. And that

5:08

probably is about it for this intro.

5:11

Lots to get to today. So let's get started.

5:14

Today's kickoff. Okay, on today's

5:16

show, first off, I've got an

5:18

extensive film review. I guess it's

5:21

a Film Futures order, whatever it's

5:23

called. But in his second

5:25

season, Kyron Williams kind of staked a

5:27

claim that the future already happened, that

5:29

it's now, right? He is a major

5:31

factor already. So either way,

5:33

I'm going to watch a lot of

5:35

Kyron Williams film and talk about that

5:37

for you here momentarily. And

5:40

then after that, it is the Super Bowl. You've

5:43

maybe already heard some of my thoughts

5:45

on the game with Jim McCormick on

5:47

our YouTube show whose audio I Snuck

5:50

into the podcast. We Had a couple of

5:52

days ago, but you know, we'll talk about

5:54

a little bit more and let's hear from

5:56

someone with much better bona fides in the

5:58

handicapping world than I have. The be

6:00

my pal Matt ladies from the Props

6:02

and Hops podcast and that and I

6:04

will discuss how this game Sunday might

6:06

go or what we think of the

6:08

match ups and then yes will also

6:10

hit you with some prop ideas at

6:12

the very end. I think you have

6:14

fun and I thank you again so

6:16

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Ten. It's

7:37

ten films. Moon

7:46

and. Was

7:49

his. Muscles

7:52

users who has

7:54

call. We

7:56

know. So

8:01

tragic. So

8:19

tragic. Eric Griffin, one

8:21

of the greatest on Mount Rushmore. I hope you're

8:23

still listening, Eric. You're great. So

8:26

there was an argument, and we discussed it

8:28

in early January on the show,

8:30

that the fantasy MVP for 2023

8:33

wasn't Christian McCaffrey at all, that

8:35

given the fact that Kyron Williams wasn't

8:38

drafted in most redraft leagues, that he

8:40

was an afterthought waiver guy until it

8:42

became clear after week two that Sean

8:45

McVeigh was done with Cam Akers, and

8:47

that Williams subsequently went on a crazy tear in

8:49

December and won a bunch of fantasy

8:52

leagues kind of on his own. So

8:54

there's an argument he was the fantasy MVP for 2023, and I

8:56

said it at the time. It's

9:00

arguable. I don't have a great rebuttal

9:02

for that. From week 12 through week

9:05

17, Williams led all running

9:07

backs in rushing yards. Scrimmage

9:09

touchdowns was second to McCaffrey

9:11

in scrimmage yards, and

9:13

in the fantasy finals had three

9:15

rushing touchdowns. Despite only playing 12

9:18

games all year, Williams finished third

9:20

in rushing yards among all running

9:22

backs, third in scrimmage touchdowns, and

9:25

ninth in scrimmage yards among all

9:27

running backs. This from

9:29

an undrafted, relatively tiny-boned

9:31

second-year player who almost nobody

9:33

loved, we certainly didn't hear

9:35

analytics people saying, no, no,

9:38

no, you don't understand. His

9:41

expected points added to make him a clear

9:43

choice over everyone else in the Rams backfield,

9:45

and nor did you hear anyone breaking

9:48

down tape saying that Kyron Williams was

9:50

an obvious candidate to pop. I

9:52

certainly wasn't. Everyone but the

9:54

Rams missed it. So this exercise

9:56

of going back and watching A metric

9:59

ton of Kyron Williams... The and tape is

10:01

fun first of all because it's fun

10:03

to watch a scrappy guys become a

10:05

star. But. It's also a little dangerous.

10:08

You know, by production by rights, Karen

10:10

Williams should immediately rise to the level

10:12

of first round fancy pick like he

10:14

plays the scarcest position, the one that

10:17

means the most if you knock it

10:19

out of the park. But.

10:21

I wasn't able to get him that I

10:23

in my initial ranks I certainly considered him,

10:25

but he only made the honorable mention list

10:28

when we did that funny little exercise back

10:30

in the end of December. But there's plenty

10:32

of time to change my mind. You may

10:34

have heard that. Fancy. Dress take

10:36

place in August and so this process

10:39

is a first step in trying to

10:41

decide whether I think Williams has a

10:43

repeat in him. He's will

10:45

sit five nine and one hundred

10:48

ninety four pounds which is small

10:50

by Bell Cow standards that smaller

10:52

than Mccaffrey who as you know.

10:55

That. Now place at

10:57

two hundred and ten pounds anyway. We.

11:00

All know the easiest thing to do

11:02

is plug in this year's numbers into

11:04

next year's projections and just go out

11:06

well, who else is there And call

11:08

Karen Williams the are before for next

11:10

year. But. It's also equally

11:12

easy to say. Well, I

11:14

didn't expect this and because I am

11:16

a super genius and always get everything

11:18

right, that means it was a complete

11:20

fluke and therefore definitely won't happen again.

11:23

The answer is I know. Because I'm

11:26

not clairvoyant. But what? I

11:28

do know how to do is watch a bunch of tape and then

11:30

tell you what I think and will go from there. Of

11:32

obviously don't so much. Currently hims talk

11:34

and game on review week by week

11:36

because the Dude Guts Night team carries

11:38

on average per game that he played

11:41

this year. But until now I haven't

11:43

stacked game after game and I should

11:45

say I mean I don't watch college

11:47

football. When. We get to mid

11:49

March and than April on the show. that

11:51

will be my rallying cry. I don't know

11:53

prospects. I don't really know how to evaluate

11:55

them when they're playing against the future Gym

11:57

Teachers of America. But. car

12:00

William should fit the profile of

12:02

someone I'm psyched about because he

12:05

was really a productive college player at a

12:07

pretty big college at B. Notre Dame and

12:10

was considered an NFL prospect until the

12:12

Underwear Olympics came along. And you know

12:14

my feeling about the Underwear Olympics, aka

12:17

the NFL Combine. Oh no,

12:19

he didn't jump really really really

12:22

high in shorts. Undraftable. For

12:24

2023, I watched

12:26

eight full games of Kyron Williams. Four,

12:29

this is for this exercise, from before

12:32

his ankle injury that happened in week six and

12:34

then four more after his return. And

12:38

it's hard not to like it when a

12:40

guy is consistently breaking into the clear and

12:42

making huge plays. Williams

12:44

will definitely break tackles from

12:46

defensive backs. He will at least take

12:49

on linebackers. He's obviously got powerful legs

12:51

in traffic where you know you expect

12:53

him to go down. He

12:55

put some big boy runs on

12:57

tape, especially later in the year

13:00

for sure. I'll say though,

13:02

the Rams running game, borderline

13:04

unstoppable in December. And

13:06

I think in my mind this is

13:08

where the story starts. You pop in

13:11

Sean McVey tape. What you expect to

13:13

see is all those zone runs. Talked

13:15

about the Miami offense so much the first

13:17

half of this year. It's that McVey scheme,

13:19

right? All the outside zone,

13:22

you know, then keep them honest with

13:24

inside zone. Running backs need to be

13:26

fast to a designated spot and then

13:28

cut hard. Then you

13:30

watch the Rams, especially well all year,

13:32

but definitely toward the end of the

13:35

year. That's just flat out not what

13:37

they were running anymore. The Giants game,

13:39

the Saints game, Commander's game, Ravens game.

13:41

It's mostly gap. It's mostly power.

13:44

What do I mean by that? A lot of

13:47

double teams and firing out

13:49

and shoving defensive linemen backwards as

13:51

opposed to sprinting sideways, trying to

13:53

stretch a defense before creating space

13:56

for the runner to cut up

13:58

field. Now there's two. tons of

14:00

pre-snap motion in these games, as there

14:02

always has been with the Rams, disguising

14:05

snap alignment and putting individual

14:07

defenders in a blender. When

14:10

McVey first started winning big, we used to talk

14:12

so much about the complexity of the passing game,

14:15

and that extends to the run game now too.

14:18

But not Finesse. You

14:20

know, McVey looked at the trend

14:22

toward cover two and funky nickel

14:25

and dime and light boxes,

14:27

and he said, alright, we're going back to 1985. And

14:31

you notice so far in assessing Williams, I've talked

14:33

about Scheme, and I can't help

14:35

it, because it's so glaringly obvious. In

14:37

2023, the Rams struck an

14:40

incredible balance between smash-mouth football and

14:42

almost never having to run their

14:45

smash-mouth football against a loaded box.

14:48

It's incredible, especially in those four games at the end

14:50

of the season. You know, Kyron Williams

14:52

would be gutting a defense like a fish. He

14:55

killed the Ravens. He killed the commanders. And

14:57

yet there would only ever be seven defenders

14:59

in the box. And

15:01

why is that? You know why that

15:04

is, because Pukinakoa was also destroying people.

15:07

Kyron Williams had 11 carries

15:10

with eight plus defenders in a box all

15:13

season. All season, Christian McCaffrey had

15:15

98, Derek Henry had 99. It's

15:19

obvious watching this tape back, defenses were trying

15:21

to keep the LA passing game in front

15:23

of them. And they were

15:26

trying to stop the run, but doing

15:28

it with their nickel-type packages. Or at least

15:30

base defense playing back. And it's just

15:32

as obvious that when a defense got annoyed

15:34

and shifted into something heavier, Matt Stafford

15:36

would check away from run. It's

15:39

a pretty great rushing environment for running back

15:41

when a defense won't stack the box even

15:43

when you're carrying it 20-plus times in a

15:45

game and having really good success. But the

15:47

fact is, in most of these games I

15:49

watch, the Rams were not way ahead in

15:52

these games. They were grinding their

15:54

opponent down like a 1980s offense. One

15:57

score up, sometimes one score down.

16:00

and therefore defenses were like, cool, we're just gonna

16:02

do our thing. You know, I talked about this

16:04

a lot as the past year progressed. Ben, but

16:06

don't break is the kind of, we're back to

16:08

that again. We're back to the future,

16:10

we're back to 2003, right? You

16:13

know, we're done letting you catch us with our

16:15

pants down, downfield. You just go ahead and run.

16:18

And obviously the Rams took advantage. It

16:20

worked. Not everyone can

16:22

run even against seven man fronts. And

16:24

there were definitely times like the Giants

16:27

game really stands out this way. There

16:29

were times when defenses had five down

16:31

linemen in their seven man fronts, because

16:33

they're trying to stay back but also

16:35

stop the run. And the Rams

16:37

still ran on them. Some of that

16:39

is Kyron Williams. Now a lot of that

16:41

is, wow, the offensive line really developed into

16:43

a monster in the second half of last

16:46

year. And it's just kind of tough to

16:48

know where the excellence of the scheme and

16:50

the offensive line ends and the running

16:52

back begins. This is, you

16:54

know, offensive line was pretty different from

16:57

December, all the way back

16:59

to September, big change. You

17:01

know, the right side of that offensive line was

17:03

just wrecking people. That's what I noticed. And Tyler

17:05

Higbee was just wrecking people. I'm old enough to

17:07

remember the, you know, combine lovers

17:09

and the stat readers telling us Tyler Higbee

17:12

was some kind of special receiver. He's not.

17:14

He's a monster as a blocker though. He wrecks people

17:17

out there in the run game for sure. So

17:19

all this is great. And I watched

17:21

so many running plays. Obviously not all of

17:23

them worked, but it was close to the

17:26

most effective running game in the league by

17:28

year's end. And it was pretty old school

17:30

a lot of the time, power stuff, double

17:32

teams, you know, just kind

17:35

of firing straightforward. And

17:37

I still haven't talked that much about Kiron Williams himself. And

17:39

that's because when I watched more and more of his film

17:41

for like three hours yesterday, I got

17:43

less and less sure that he's an excellent

17:45

player. And I mean that literally, literally. It's

17:48

not that, not that I decided that he isn't an

17:50

excellent player. I just

17:52

got less sure. He didn't run against loaded

17:55

fronts ever. He Got so

17:57

much more room right at handoff. There are

17:59

plenty of players. these words stuffed and he

18:01

had to take some level of a vase

18:03

of action. But we more

18:05

than most runners, he could just get

18:07

going and find his space and get

18:09

through the differences. First level is that

18:11

because he's awesome! I

18:13

I just think that. Most. Running

18:15

backs could have done what Karen Williams did

18:17

in the first whatever past second of many

18:20

of his good rushing place that were just

18:22

room just Jacobs and Derrick Henry and sake

18:24

what Barkley, A Breeze Hall could only dream

18:26

of the kind of room that Williams was

18:28

getting to load up and carried again. Running.

18:31

So much power. The lanes are

18:33

clearer. it's more obvious were you

18:35

supposed to go? It's not nearly

18:37

as much decision making for running

18:39

backs. If you hit it, sassy, hit

18:41

it hard and only deviate from that when

18:43

it's plugged up a lot less. Jazz.

18:46

Running if you catch the levy

18:48

on Bell reference. The. Rams were

18:50

a pretty incredible short yardage team and

18:52

wasn't all these plays again at against

18:55

like in that Commanders games weeks esteem

18:57

third and short Fourth in short boom

18:59

the push. The. Line was getting

19:01

really not normal. Nine. Rushing

19:03

touchdowns from inside the five when the

19:06

field is compressed, and defenses are always

19:08

at least partially defending the run by

19:10

default. I. Can make a

19:12

case that currently music tough. Smart.

19:15

Strong player. but if you watch all those

19:17

short touchdowns like I just did, He's.

19:20

Almost always getting a crease and not

19:22

getting hit by the first guy, and

19:24

he's almost always up to speed before

19:26

contact. I absolutely see strong

19:28

runs where he made something happen himself.

19:30

His longest run of the year? fifty

19:32

six yards against the Cardinals. He just

19:34

sorta keeps his feet and they're a

19:36

big bodies all around him. and then.

19:39

You're. He be sports out the other side and just

19:41

goes long. Are we in that

19:43

Commanders game? He bounces to his right

19:45

really quickly. Good run, a good vision,

19:47

good move, but he probably still is

19:49

gonna get stacked up for a relatively

19:51

short day. Then he makes a great

19:53

cut. To. be outside contains a

19:55

bad effort by kendall fuller who was

19:58

other was pretty good player but It

20:00

shows you that Williams is quick and he

20:02

does see it. Even if he

20:04

doesn't have like super breakaway speed, he's not

20:07

terrible, not a terrible player at all. And

20:10

this is a little frustrating for

20:12

me, but it's where I land. I don't

20:15

think Kyron Williams is a truly exceptional talent.

20:17

And he's very small by NFL standards.

20:20

Not a subpar athlete, he's just not

20:22

a super freak athlete. If

20:24

you're gonna categorize him, you definitely

20:27

say he's more of a quick player than a powerful

20:29

one. He makes

20:31

the occasional move where you go, wow, that's

20:33

really great, but relative to other

20:35

running backs that you see around the league, it

20:38

doesn't happen as frequently. And it didn't need to as

20:40

much this year because he had so much room. The

20:43

fact is the bigger part of his allure

20:46

based on this past year's tape is the

20:48

team he was playing for. And that's so reductive

20:50

and I hate saying, I

20:53

just hate him that, therefore I don't. The

20:55

Rams married their pass game with their run

20:57

game in a way that

21:00

just terrified opposing defenses to the point where

21:02

even as those defenses were being gashed by

21:04

the run, they largely just refused to stop

21:06

the run, to not to do everything that

21:08

they could do to stop the run. And

21:11

then when they did stack their box, the Rams

21:13

just wouldn't run. Williams gets credit

21:15

for massive workloads, the most carries per

21:17

game of any running back in the

21:19

league. And when you get that many

21:22

attempts with that much space behind an

21:24

offensive line working that well, it's not

21:26

shocking you put together a truly great

21:28

season, but it's scary

21:30

to assume it's gonna happen again. Any

21:33

running back can get hurt, of course. 2023

21:35

surely convinced us of that. But if

21:38

Williams hadn't gotten hurt last year, he'd have gotten

21:40

323 carries at 5'9", 193 pounds. That's

21:46

Derek Henry workload territory. That's Prime

21:48

Zeke Elliott workload territory. That's Adrian

21:50

Peterson territory. You don't find smaller

21:53

running backs with that kind of

21:55

workload. And I mean that literally,

21:57

no sub 200 pound run. running

22:00

back has even topped 286 carries this century,

22:04

as opposed to the 323 Williams would have

22:06

gotten at his pace. The

22:09

running backs that small either break down or they're

22:11

just never given that amount of

22:13

work for fear that they'll break

22:15

down. Christian McCaffrey, again, now listed

22:17

at 210 pounds. His max carries

22:19

is 287. He did

22:22

272 this year. Kironoum

22:24

is on pace for 323. He

22:27

would have done 51 more on pace he was

22:29

on if he'd stayed healthy, which is

22:31

an argument that he might not stay healthy

22:33

next year. But as I just said, any

22:36

running back can get hurt. My

22:38

reluctance to fully embrace Williams comes down

22:40

to, is the ride gonna be

22:42

so smooth again in 2024? Set

22:45

aside injury. Is the offensive

22:48

line gonna stay healthy? Gonna stay together? They

22:50

have some contracts to extend there. Are

22:52

defenses gonna refuse to bring safeties into

22:54

the box again? Are they

22:57

gonna be reluctant to play bass packages

22:59

or heavy packages? Is McVey gonna

23:01

have to evolve back to more zone running?

23:03

Which Williams probably just isn't

23:05

as good at because he's not that

23:08

like stop, start explosive. To

23:11

rank Kironoum Williams as a first round running back

23:14

for fantasy is to rely on a

23:16

lot of surrounding stuff to be exactly the same.

23:18

And I do tend to think surrounding

23:21

stuff is rarely the same. I

23:23

don't wanna say that picking Kironoum Williams,

23:25

whatever 10th overall in a fantasy draft

23:27

this year is stupid. You know,

23:30

it's stupid. How could you rank him there?

23:32

That's stupid. I think it's defensible. Things can

23:35

go wrong and things do go wrong with

23:37

every kind of fantasy first rounder because the

23:39

league is crazy and the league reinvents itself

23:41

every year. But I

23:43

leave this exercise thinking,

23:47

I don't think I'd do it. I think

23:49

the risk that something in that well

23:51

oiled machine goes wrong and leaves Williams

23:53

a little too reliant on

23:55

his talent that I just don't think is like great.

23:58

I think that risk is too high. for me. I'm

24:01

gonna try to get him in a round two,

24:04

like late round two, which will

24:06

be a reflection of some awesome tape. Like

24:09

overall the production's great. Like I don't know,

24:11

his tape isn't awesome. The Rams running game

24:13

tape is awesome, I guess. You

24:16

know, it could repeat. All that evidence that

24:18

McVey will ride him like a rented mule

24:20

is right there. It's sitting right there. And

24:22

therefore the upside could be as high as

24:24

almost any player in fantasy and and therefore

24:27

drafting Kyron Williams, you know, he should get

24:29

some respect for that. He's gonna have crazy

24:31

upside again next year. I just

24:33

see too many chances for things to change. Someone

24:36

gets hurt. A unit is a little bit less

24:38

effective. So I think in

24:40

addition to the upside there's just a little

24:43

too much baked in risk for me to

24:45

be fully all-in on Kyron Williams as

24:47

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24:52

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24:55

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24:57

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25:02

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26:00

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Harris, drinkag1.com/Harris.

26:08

Today is guest. And today's guest,

26:10

it is the aforementioned Matt Landes. You can

26:12

find him on Twitter. It's a different Twitter

26:14

handle that I'm remembering from when

26:17

he was on this time last year. It's at

26:19

lay of the Landes and I'm gonna ask him about

26:21

that. He's the host of

26:23

Props and Hops and lots

26:25

of handicapping talk on Matt's podcast,

26:28

Props and Hops. If you like

26:30

handicapping talk from someone who knows

26:32

more than I do, I

26:34

would recommend to that podcast. Matt,

26:37

hi, thanks for coming on. Chris,

26:40

thanks for having me back to preview the

26:42

Super Bowl from a betting perspective once again

26:44

this year. Despite my lack of a slick

26:47

name like Lem, much to the chagrand of

26:49

Jim McCormick and underscore barons everywhere. I think

26:52

there's only one underscore baron. So

26:55

at lay of the Landes, I started

26:59

to ask you before we hit record. So Matt and I

27:01

like hang out. He's in LA. We're friends. And

27:05

I asked you before we started recording, hey you have

27:07

a new Twitter handle. And now and you started to

27:09

tell the story and I interrupted you because it's funny.

27:11

So tell me the story. Sure,

27:13

I'm glad it's funny to you because it was just painful

27:16

to me for the longest time. So I joined Twitter in

27:18

2009 and my name was readily

27:21

available but part of me I

27:23

guess thought it would be... Your name. Like your name.

27:25

You could have just been at Matt Landes and you'd

27:27

been fine. Exactly and

27:30

go figure the only platform where I

27:32

think I actually have that locked down

27:34

is Venmo. So feel free to use

27:37

that on Venmo everybody. But Twitter, big

27:39

missed opportunity. I decided instead to go

27:41

with first initial, last name, favorite number.

27:43

Like I'm creating my first AOL stream

27:46

name in the mid 90s or something

27:48

like that. And

27:50

eventually I just got so sick of

27:52

it myself and of course my name

27:54

had since been taken and I figured

27:56

hey I generally try to approach my

27:58

value proposition in the sportsman in

28:00

content space as curation being my

28:03

form of creation, kind of synthesizing what a lot

28:05

of sharp people that I've gotten to know have

28:07

to say and bringing that to people in a

28:09

digestible way. So thinking of, okay, exploring

28:12

the lay of the lands, a little plan words

28:14

with the last name. So that's where you get

28:16

it. Maybe it's not perfect, but it's probably a

28:18

little bit better than M land is 18 for

28:20

whatever that was. It's like, why is 18 your

28:22

favorite number? I

28:25

guess I'll quote Michael Scott and say I'm

28:28

not superstitious, but I'm a little stitious. And

28:31

when I was growing up, I played

28:33

baseball and ironically for the first five

28:35

years or so, I couldn't hit a

28:37

lick. And one

28:39

year I was playing randomly got assigned the number

28:42

18 and something clicked and

28:44

I hit over 500 in a season. And

28:46

that was it. 18 was my

28:48

number forever. 2009

28:50

you joined Twitter. So you were, you were, you

28:52

were seven years old, obviously. Uh, all

28:56

right. Well, that's, I liked, I liked the story that Twitter,

28:59

you could have gotten your, I joined in 2010 when you

29:01

told me that story, I had to go check you were,

29:03

you were on Twitter a year before I was, uh,

29:07

all right. So yeah, you are,

29:09

you are going to be my

29:11

go to for understanding betting

29:13

markets and all that stuff. And you are kind

29:16

of generally in not just for this game, but

29:18

you know, you're also football guy. I watch football

29:20

with you. Uh, so

29:22

before we do the thing that everybody is

29:25

doing, which is, you know, here's a million

29:27

props you could play. Here's, you know, okay,

29:29

yeah. Betting strategies, you know, all that stuff.

29:32

Um, let's just talk football for a little bit. Uh,

29:35

if the folks have listened to

29:37

the bonus episode that we

29:39

posted, um, from YouTube with me and Jim McCormick

29:41

from a couple of days ago, they've

29:43

already heard kind of my

29:45

general game thoughts, but you were the

29:48

very, as I've said to Jim on

29:50

that show, you were the very first

29:52

person to hear my game thoughts because

29:54

the Niner's come back in the second

29:56

game. We don't know

29:58

anything yet. What is it? I turn

30:00

to you, what's the first thing I said? Kansas

30:03

City by three. And

30:07

you rightly, because you know the markets and I

30:09

don't, what did you say? Well,

30:12

I will say to quote you

30:14

misquoting me to Jim McCormick last

30:16

week, no, you're wrong, you're bad

30:18

at this. I like to think

30:20

I was a bit more critical. You were. And

30:23

honestly, we'll get to this, but I

30:26

tend to agree with your outlook on the game

30:28

and why you would have thought that. But just

30:30

knowing that the look ahead line the day before

30:32

had the Niners favored by three, okay, got to

30:34

upgrade Kansas City for winning at Baltimore. Can't really

30:36

upgrade the Niners for the way they look, but

30:38

the favorites not going to flip. It's

30:41

probably going to be in between somewhere and pick them

30:43

minus two and a half for San Francisco. All

30:46

right. So I didn't actually know that at the

30:48

time. Your thought was really, you were like, Chris,

30:50

you're wrong. But

30:52

the reason you thought that is not really for football reasons. It

30:54

was because you'd seen the look ahead line. Yeah.

30:57

I don't think so much think your opinion was wrong

30:59

as I thought my conviction and what the

31:02

betting market would open to spread at was

31:04

pretty locked into a finite window of the

31:06

Niners being a short favorite. All right. So

31:08

you've been doing shows through these couple of

31:11

weeks since we've known the Super Bowl matchup

31:13

and you've been talking to the heavy

31:15

hitters, betters and people who

31:17

understand lines and maybe even move lines.

31:21

Have you heard this from people, my initial reaction

31:23

that I thought the Chiefs should have been favored

31:25

or is everyone like, no, this line's about right.

31:30

The sharpest people that I've spoken with or

31:32

heard from, I think they similarly understand why

31:34

the market was more or less anchored to

31:36

the Niners as a short favorite. But

31:39

in a lot of games, we get this sharp

31:41

square divide where it might make sense to think,

31:43

okay, the public, all the Swift user on the

31:45

Chiefs and the big monies on the Niners. And

31:47

there are probably some best splits being reported that

31:49

would suggest something like that to be the case.

31:52

I really don't get the sense that there is a

31:54

very clear cut, sharp or square side in this game.

31:57

Frankly, most of the sharpest, you know,

31:59

professional. betters that I've come to know and

32:01

respect over the years, if anything would

32:03

bet or lean to the Chiefs catching the points

32:06

in this one. Okay, all right. So

32:09

from a football perspective, I've

32:11

talked already about, you

32:15

know, just feeling safer with the Chiefs. I

32:17

feel like I know what I'm getting with the Chiefs and

32:19

I with the Niners, especially really for me, it's the defense,

32:22

I just kind of don't feel like I know what I'm getting. And,

32:26

you know, we sat there in

32:29

your living room and watched the

32:32

Lions absolutely march them up the field

32:34

for a half and it felt like

32:36

they would have kept doing it had they,

32:38

you know, Jameer Gibbs not fumbled and the

32:40

coach kicked some field goals. It just felt

32:42

like it was

32:45

a bad day for the Niners defense.

32:47

And I wonder, just

32:49

from a football perspective, how,

32:51

you know, I guess everybody

32:54

market anyone who's on the Niners here thinks

32:56

those are just a couple of bad days.

33:00

Yeah, I think one of the biggest pivot points

33:02

in terms of how somebody is going to net

33:04

out with their opinion on this

33:06

point spread would be current form

33:08

versus season long form. I

33:11

don't think I'm the one who's qualified to say exactly

33:13

how much that matters. But if we look at this,

33:15

the Niners have put forth a great body of work

33:17

over the course of the season as a whole. That

33:20

said, I think it's tough to say they've

33:22

been anywhere near as good since Christmas when

33:24

they had that big loss to Baltimore, Kansas

33:26

City, of course, surging after a sluggish start.

33:29

So I feel like there's a sense that maybe there's

33:31

a free role that to the extent that current form

33:33

may matter, it can really only favor the Chiefs. And

33:35

if people are looking at season long numbers, that probably

33:37

skews them much more towards San Francisco. Yeah.

33:40

And like I said, this would

33:43

Jim on the preview on the bonus

33:45

episode on the YouTube channel, whatever, like

33:47

for me, like

33:49

spags V. Purdy. I

33:52

just go, man, I've seen spags do

33:54

bad things to better players than Brock

33:57

Bernie. Like

33:59

I, you know, I've seen. I've seen him,

34:01

he was a Giants defensive coordinator for whatever

34:03

it was, 17 and 0, whatever. 18

34:07

and 0, 19 and 0, I don't

34:09

remember. I blocked it all out. I don't have any recollection

34:11

of that, Super Bowl. 18 and 1. Yeah,

34:14

I know, it was 18 and 0, and then it was 18 and 1. Like,

34:19

I just feel like, what's

34:21

the, I think about the football

34:23

side of this, I think what's the thing I wanna

34:25

do to the Niners offense? And

34:28

I think I want, every time

34:30

Christian McCaffrey is tempted

34:32

to run to the outside

34:34

to get around the edge, I have to have somebody standing

34:37

there. Period, full stop, end of

34:39

story. If he gets

34:41

the edge repeatedly in this game, I

34:43

think all my predictions are off, I think. But

34:45

my point is, I feel like that's kinda obvious, and

34:47

I feel like Spaggs is gonna figure out a way

34:50

to do it. And

34:52

to that point, when I look at this game

34:54

with the Niners on offense, the biggest

34:56

X factor for me, not getting to any prop bets

34:58

or anything, but just thinking about this from a more

35:00

pure football perspective, what wins

35:02

on the perimeter? If the Chiefs are really

35:04

locked in on McCaffrey, are the Niners receivers

35:06

gonna win with their physicality, or will the

35:09

Chiefs secondary win with its aggression? And

35:11

to that end, I'll give a hat tip

35:13

to a sharp handicapper, Cleave TA, who was

35:15

my conference championship guest on Prost and Hops.

35:17

He's noted since we knew that it would

35:19

be the Chiefs and the Niners in this

35:21

matchup. Kansas City faced eight wide receivers this

35:23

season who ranked in the top 12 in

35:25

yards per game, and

35:28

they've held all eight to at least 25% below

35:30

their season average. Now, yards per game,

35:32

admittedly not the best stat. So for

35:35

the purposes of this show, let's

35:37

assume that these are wide receivers who

35:39

performed above the infinite sadness on a

35:42

season long basis, but not against Kansas

35:44

City. So I think the key for

35:46

the Chiefs defense here is that they've got some great

35:48

corners, they can afford to be aggressive, that has served

35:50

them very well so far this season. I

35:52

wonder if that might be playing with fire

35:54

against the Niners with guys like Brandon Ayuk

35:57

and Deebo Samuel being very physical on the

35:59

perimeter. might be less inclined to

36:01

be phased by some of the aggression the Chiefs

36:03

could bring their way. So Chris, to that end,

36:05

I know you watch as much video as anybody.

36:07

I wonder how you see that dynamic shaking out.

36:09

If the Chiefs paramocked on McCaffrey, what do we

36:12

see unfold on the perimeter? I

36:15

mean, I think the whole thought

36:17

this whole game for the final offense

36:19

is like they, you know, Purdy's not

36:21

a shrinking violet. We've said it

36:24

over and over and over again. He's very, very aggressive and

36:26

he'll sometimes write checks that his arm can't

36:28

catch and you know, he will try to

36:30

throw outside the numbers. I

36:33

feel like if he's throwing outside the numbers,

36:36

you know, more than 15 yards down the field, that's

36:38

Chiefs advantage, Chiefs defense. If he's able

36:41

to make plays shorter than that,

36:43

where his arm isn't an issue, yeah, there could be a

36:45

problem for the Chiefs defense because it's going to be a

36:47

lot of man coverage out there. No question about it. Yeah,

36:49

I think that's right. I

36:52

want to take people in it because I've

36:54

had now had the conversation with Pat,

36:58

Pat Daugherty on the show

37:00

last week. Maybe you heard that one. And

37:03

I also probably had it with Jim McCormick

37:05

because because it's the all that anybody was

37:07

talking about for a week there about the

37:09

Lions and their decisions. But you were there,

37:11

you were watching it with me. And

37:14

I think I don't

37:16

know. I don't think you're like a slavish analytics

37:18

guy. You're very aware. You can correct

37:20

me if I'm wrong. We know

37:22

each other pretty well. But like, I don't think

37:25

you say that numbers should automatically

37:27

dictate you do one thing or another.

37:29

Would that be a fair characterization?

37:33

Yeah, definitely. Yeah. And so

37:35

the Lions did

37:38

what they did. And we've already talked about it till we're blue in

37:40

the face. And I don't need to have that speech again. But I

37:43

sort of want your perspective because I know you're coming

37:45

at it from the handicapping

37:47

side. A lot of the stuff that

37:49

you produce is about handicapping where numbers

37:51

are everything. And that's where people are

37:53

trying to find their edge with advanced

37:56

metrics and all that stuff, which

37:58

I don't say disparaging. because I believe in

38:00

some of that stuff, but not all

38:03

of it and not slavishly. So when

38:05

you, I mean there was a, there

38:07

was a, what, Will Leach, the former

38:10

Deadspin guy, comes out with a column

38:12

saying, math won. That

38:14

math always wins and math won. And

38:17

therefore to question it, you can't even

38:19

question kicking field goals, not

38:21

kicking field goals in this. It was absolutely

38:23

the right thing and you can't question it.

38:26

A day after, like math always wins? Wait,

38:28

I just saw it lose. The

38:31

discourse, I guess, from

38:33

your experience, from who you've talked to, is there a

38:35

lot of like, a lot of that

38:38

mentality of people just saying, yeah, it was right. And

38:40

if you question it, you're just dumb. Yeah.

38:43

So I think there are a

38:45

lot of people who, whether it truly reflects

38:47

their beliefs or they're just way more savvy

38:49

than myself when it comes to getting clicks

38:52

or downloads, if you just anchor your opinion

38:54

publicly at one side of the spectrum or

38:56

another, that's maybe going to give you a

38:58

better chance to break through the noise and

39:01

reach a big audience and get engaged. Whether

39:03

that's a dignified discourse or a cesspool, I'll

39:05

leave that to others to determine. I think

39:07

that my perspective and those that

39:09

I tend to trust and respect the most,

39:12

there's some nuance to it. So that decision

39:14

right before the half, maybe

39:16

the Lions score a touchdown just under 50%

39:19

of the time. But going

39:22

for it from the three, part of the advantage in

39:24

a typical game state is that if you fail, you're

39:26

pinning the other offense deep in its own territory. In

39:28

this case, they just would have gone straight to the

39:30

half, kicking the field goal, going to the half with

39:33

a three score lead makes a ton of

39:35

sense. There were a couple third

39:37

and fourth quarter fourth down decisions that I

39:40

know have been very polarizing. I

39:42

tend to think in both cases, there

39:44

is a strong argument to be made

39:46

either way. I generally skew toward the,

39:48

I guess, more quote unquote aggressive or

39:50

analytical approach, but

39:53

I totally would have gotten it had the Lions

39:55

picked a field goal in either of those scenarios.

39:57

I preferred that they go for it, but I

39:59

don't think. it just because they weren't fortunate

40:01

didn't work out Campbell's an idiot and had they

40:04

kicked a field goal in both of those scenarios

40:06

and maybe still lost the game he didn't lose

40:08

with those decisions I think Josh Reynolds not catching

40:10

the ball Jimmy you're good tumbling

40:12

as you mentioned a deep ball to

40:14

IU going off a defender's face mask and

40:16

becoming a 51 yard reception to set up

40:18

the Niners for a touchdown so many things

40:20

beyond Campbell's decision-making led to the Lions losing

40:22

this game I know that in these high leverage

40:25

forced down moments it's easy to second guess whatever

40:27

a coach decides to do I just

40:29

tend to think at the end of the day it's not sexy not

40:31

to have the hottest take here I don't think

40:33

that was really the key that swung the outcome of

40:35

the game it's a

40:37

key though I mean it's easy to argue that

40:40

it's a key it's and you mentioned some of

40:42

the other ones I'm not mad at the decision

40:44

I'm mad at being told I'm an idiot for

40:46

questioning the decision yeah

40:49

I think that anybody who's

40:51

gonna disparage someone's opinion these are about as close

40:53

as it gets to coin flip decisions maybe there's

40:55

a 55% to 45% edge according to the math

40:57

but then again

41:00

to your point okay what's Dan Campbell seeing on

41:02

the field what's Ben Johnson seeing are the Niners

41:04

making adjustments defensively are there things if we're just

41:06

washing the ball every play but they can see

41:08

what's going on in the trenches or at different

41:10

levels of the field I mean the first four

41:12

sound the Niners went for I think they had

41:14

Josh Reynolds wide open a pass was a bit

41:16

behind him he dropped it maybe

41:18

you could say they should have kicked the field goal

41:20

but Ben Johnson knows hey like we can get somebody

41:22

wide open and if you pause that play when golf

41:24

is releasing the ball to a wide open receiver for

41:26

the first down you're so pumped that they went for

41:29

it then suddenly he drops the ball and you're pissed

41:31

that they went for it I think that there

41:33

needs to be a better understanding and this goes for

41:35

so many walks of life a lot of people not

41:38

to get too philosophical but I feel like a

41:40

lot of people think that if somebody believes something

41:42

different than they do it gets

41:45

interpreted is very threatening whereas

41:47

it's often not intended to be threatening anyway

41:49

it's just different and that's okay oftentimes there

41:51

can be a very healthy tension there and

41:54

I think if people could let their guards down

41:56

a little bit the overall discourse would be so

41:58

much better for it I mean,

42:00

that's true. That was a philosophical

42:03

statement. That's true. But you know, you're a

42:05

philosophical guy, obviously. I just

42:07

like, I likened it to like,

42:10

I'll like to talk about poker. Like

42:12

at the very top level of the very best

42:14

poker players in the world, they all know the

42:16

tables. They all know what they're supposed

42:18

to do when they have the hand they have in the

42:20

position that they have with the stack that they have in

42:22

the phase of the tournament that they're in,

42:24

right? They all know the charts and

42:27

the very best players are the

42:29

ones who can look in the other guy's eye and go,

42:31

something about right here. You

42:33

know, yeah, and to that end, Super Bowl

42:35

49. I remember being on the Seahawks in

42:37

that game and starting to rejoice that the

42:39

Patriots weren't calling a timeout, whether it's Belichick

42:41

that saw something, whether it's Ernie Adams that

42:43

had a certain thought. The element

42:46

of surprise when Seattle knew that they were probably

42:48

waiting for anyone to call timeout. Maybe that cost

42:50

them off guard. I mean, Malcolm Butler makes a

42:52

great play. And if this he scored

42:54

there, it doesn't necessarily change the process that the Patriots

42:57

had behind that decision. But

42:59

in some of these high leverage moments, the outcome gets

43:01

so much attention. And I think in the long term,

43:03

the process is really what should be trumping

43:05

the result. I

43:20

think you have a place where you can

43:22

have your phone out during the game on

43:24

Sunday and make some fun parlays, some props,

43:26

all that good stuff. Of course, we recommend

43:28

DraftKings. And if you download the DraftKings app

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restrictions, terms and responsible gaming

44:31

resources. Okay,

44:35

we're back with Matt. Now

44:38

is the part of the show where

44:40

I start asking you for actual

44:42

thoughts on wagers that you

44:45

like. For

44:47

folks who are going to get the DraftKings app,

44:49

maybe they're going to get their $200 in

44:52

bonus bets they can mess around with. They could put

44:55

some cash down on some of these

44:57

games, but not too much please. Not

44:59

too much on these props and stuff like that. I

45:01

don't think you're going to tell me that you're super interested

45:03

in the color of Gatorade or

45:06

the length of the National Anthem

45:08

or the number of Taylor Swift

45:10

cutaways. You can correct me if I'm wrong.

45:13

You're on the right track so far. Thanks,

45:16

man. So

45:19

let's start out by you

45:21

referred to something very early

45:23

on in this conversation about

45:25

the public and the

45:27

money supposedly being dumb when it's the

45:29

public. The Chiefs are, as far as

45:31

I understand it, as of our recording

45:34

this, the very, very, very public team,

45:36

like something like 70 something percent of

45:38

the bets and 70 something percent of

45:40

the money and yet the

45:42

line hasn't moved. I

45:44

guess that makes me think someone

45:46

in Vegas and elsewhere

45:50

thinks that the public is dumb and they know how

45:52

this is going to go, but is

45:54

that a fair interpretation? that's

46:00

telling us something. But in

46:02

all seriousness, the analogy that I

46:04

can think of with regard to bet splits here

46:06

is something I hope you and your audience will

46:08

appreciate. I think bet splits in

46:10

a way are kind of the yards-per-carry of

46:12

gambling content because it can be a very

46:15

interesting talking point, but most of the time

46:17

it's just way more noise than signal. I

46:19

think there can be a false dichotomy at

46:21

play when yeah some games it's directionally true.

46:23

There may be a lot of sharps on

46:25

one side and a lot of so-called squares

46:27

on the other side, but that's entirely dependent

46:29

on the number. I mean if the Super

46:31

Bowl was lined at Pickham, sharps would

46:33

be on San Francisco. If this number were

46:35

to touch plus three, which I don't think

46:37

has much of a chance of happening, the

46:39

sharps would be all over Kansas City. When

46:41

we're in this kind of no-man's land between

46:43

Niners minus 1, Niners minus 2 and

46:45

a half, there's no clear sharper square

46:47

side. So I don't think

46:50

that the bet splits are telling us too much in

46:52

that sense. Yes, there has been some big money on

46:54

San Francisco at certain numbers, but I

46:56

also question when these public money

46:59

bet splits are reported, how

47:01

that action is getting profiled. Thank you of

47:03

myself for example, I'm not a pro bettor

47:05

so you could say okay my money is

47:07

public money and at the same

47:09

time the majority of my action is based on

47:11

insight that I'm getting from pro and sharp betters

47:13

I know. So maybe my action

47:15

is sharp. Who's to say? I think ultimately

47:18

a lot of books that share bet splits

47:20

tend to limit winners and savvy winning betters

47:22

have other ways of getting down. So

47:25

I think of a friend and pro better who

47:27

goes by the name Spanky who talks about walking

47:29

into the front door at a book versus sneaking

47:31

into the back door and his mantra to sportsbooks

47:34

is either you're gonna deal with me or you're

47:36

gonna deal with me. So the bottom

47:38

line here to me is that there's not a

47:40

clear sharper square divide. There's a lot of pro

47:42

and sharp money here that I think is happy

47:44

to get classified as public action

47:46

on Kansas City. Okay, that's fair.

47:50

Is Spanky in LA? Are we gonna be hanging with Spanky now? Spanky

47:54

unfortunately is not in LA but Chris if you ever

47:56

want to go to a very fun

47:58

betting conference that goes... by the name of Bet

48:01

Bash in Las Vegas every summer. He puts that together

48:03

and just does an awesome job. So if you ever

48:05

want to meet some really sharp betters, yeah, every August

48:07

in Vegas, there's your chance to meet them face to

48:10

face. They'd all laugh at

48:12

me. So essentially what

48:14

you're saying, and I love

48:16

that color, that background is great, essentially

48:19

what you're saying is don't really believe the numbers. If

48:22

the money really was that uneven, the line

48:24

would have moved just because of risk management

48:27

for these books. Yeah,

48:29

if there's enough money on San Francisco, the line's

48:31

going to go up. But I think before it

48:33

can even hit three, we're going to see resistance

48:35

on Kansas City, just like we talked about the

48:38

spread opening. Niner's minus two and

48:40

a half. At minus one, we saw a buyback

48:42

on the niner. So there are clear points of

48:44

delineation. Niner's minus one, we see San Francisco money.

48:46

Niner's minus two and a half, the chief's money

48:48

comes in the other way. Okay. But

48:52

what you're saying is it's probably balanced and they're

48:54

just not telling us that it's balanced. Because I

48:57

mean, my dumb head,

49:00

usually what I understand is the books

49:02

don't particularly want massive exposure

49:04

no matter what they think is going to happen. Yeah,

49:07

I think a lot of books, especially with an

49:09

event like the Super Bowl, the sheer volume of

49:11

money, they probably don't want too big of a decision

49:13

on their hands. So I think that's a very

49:15

fair point. And also when it comes down to

49:17

the amount of money on a certain team, it

49:21

sounds like a trivial difference probably. But there

49:23

are some people who bet the niner's laying a point

49:25

that wouldn't bet the niner's laying two and a half.

49:27

And conversely, there's some people have the chief's plus two

49:29

and a half, they wouldn't take them plus one, or

49:31

especially Kansas City money line, some people got chief's plus

49:34

125 right away, they don't

49:36

have as much interest in the chief's in the range of

49:38

plus 110 or whatever this number is going to

49:40

close at. So it's the money is

49:42

down, but at what number on certain teams and

49:44

overall, to your point, I think the books are

49:47

happy just to collect the vig for an event

49:49

of this magnitude. Sure, yeah. But

49:51

and I think in the end, what it comes down

49:53

to is that probably they aren't being totally honest on

49:56

where the actual money is. I think the money

49:58

line right now, are recording this in the Jesus plus

50:01

102 so basically even I

50:04

don't know kind of like that take

50:07

I take double my money I think they're gonna win

50:09

so all right how about how about you

50:12

know the

50:15

first thing anybody ever says is make sure you

50:17

shop your lines I'm like okay man I don't

50:19

have 17 accounts that different you know like I

50:22

have draft Kings or I actually don't have draft Kings I have

50:24

offshore cuz I'm in California but you know I have

50:26

a way to get a pic on graph kings or two

50:28

his name is Jim McCormick what

50:31

are you what are how are you coming up

50:33

with some prop ideas and you're can feel free

50:36

to kind of lay some on us sure

50:39

I think the foundation

50:41

to my approach this year and it can

50:43

apply to previous super bowls as well and

50:45

I think will only increase moving forward is

50:47

to consider what I think of as the

50:49

road less traveled thinking about

50:52

draft Kings and other books have been pricing

50:54

props like my home is passing yards Kelsey

50:56

receiving yards Christian McCaffrey rushing yards all

50:59

season long the equation is pretty much solved

51:01

for props like that with marquee players but

51:03

the betting takeaway in this Super Bowl market

51:05

is that there's often a lot more value

51:07

and props that books aren't as experienced pricing

51:09

and okay for a lot of betters that

51:12

just means there's a chance to take advantage

51:14

of a bigger attack surface for the Super

51:16

Bowl okay okay you have some of

51:18

those yeah

51:20

so one if you're cool to dive into

51:22

it there is a player prop that I

51:24

like involving Isaiah Pacheco and again throughout most

51:26

of the season his rushing yardage for a

51:28

game maybe his receiving yardage odds of scoring

51:30

a touchdown those have been out there but

51:33

one that I think is only available for

51:35

the Super Bowl for a player like Pacheco

51:37

first reception under five and a half

51:39

yards this is available for even money

51:42

at Draft Kings and a hat tip

51:44

here to a handicapper Drew Dintik also

51:46

known as whale capper in sports betting

51:48

circles he broke down this one on

51:51

this week's Super Bowl prop extravaganza on

51:53

the forward progress YouTube channel and

51:56

beyond what Drew said one thing that I did when

51:58

I saw Draft Kings this practice for this line.

52:00

I also looked at a market making offshore

52:03

sports book and they have Pacheco's

52:05

first reception under five and a half yards

52:07

at minus 127. So when we

52:09

see that kind of difference in price and the market

52:11

maker is shaded heavily toward the under, that

52:14

tells me that there's probably value at even

52:16

money on Pacheco for this prop without even

52:18

handicapping it. But for the sake of giving

52:20

people more of a peek behind the curtain,

52:22

this line Pacheco first reception over under five

52:24

and a half yards. It's more

52:27

based on his average in terms of his

52:29

mean for the season, looking at yards per

52:31

reception about five and a half. But his

52:33

median, not to get too mathematical, but the

52:36

median for Pacheco closer to five and the

52:38

takeaway there, Pacheco can be a bit of

52:40

a boomer bus receiver out of the backfield.

52:42

Lots of explosive receptions, but also a lot

52:45

of receptions that don't really go anywhere. In

52:47

fact, more than half of Pacheco's first quarter

52:49

receptions this season have gone for no gain

52:51

or negative yardage. Factoring the matchup with the

52:54

49ers linebackers, I think Fred Warner and Dre

52:56

Greenlaw are well equipped to handle running backs

52:58

out of the backfield. So overall, I expect

53:00

Pacheco to have a good game. I just

53:03

don't expect him to have a big gain on his

53:05

first reception. So I see value on that to come in

53:07

at under five and a half yards at even money. Okay.

53:11

How many of these do you have by that? I didn't ask you beforehand because I'm

53:13

terrible at this. All good.

53:15

I've got a few more I'm happy to speak to. If

53:17

you have any that you want to discuss as well, then

53:19

I'm always open to your perspective. If

53:22

you've got a couple, well, give me another one and I'll give you one. All

53:25

right, cool. So I'll pivot to a game

53:27

prop. So this is not contingent on what

53:29

any one player will or won't do.

53:31

But will there be a two point conversion

53:33

attempt? No, laying minus 140 at DraftKing. I

53:36

know minus 140 can feel like a lot

53:38

of big delay for some bettors, but

53:40

I'll explain why I think there's value at

53:43

this price point. And I'll give a hat

53:45

tip here to pro better Steve Bezic, who

53:47

shared it on the Even Money podcast this

53:49

week. We're looking at two conservative coaches in

53:51

this matchup. I know we've had the analytics

53:53

conversation earlier. I think that both of these

53:55

coaches more on the conservative side of things with

53:57

Andy Reid, we thought in the at

54:00

Buffalo, the Chiefs scored a touchdown and then

54:02

a penalty on the bills gave Kansas City

54:04

the option to kick the extra point or

54:06

go for two from the one yard line.

54:09

And typically in that situation, it's pretty much a

54:11

slam dunk to go for two from the one

54:14

they kicked the point after. And if we

54:16

were to get Kyle Shanahan on the other side,

54:18

he hasn't gone for two all season long. So

54:20

this one may lose. It's not a given. There's

54:22

no such thing as a lock in what comes

54:25

to my betting lexicon. But Game State could force

54:27

the coaches hands. If there's a team that's down

54:29

eight late in the fourth quarter and they score

54:31

a touchdown to cut their deficit to two, they're

54:34

gonna go for two. But when we're laying minus

54:36

140 to make this more relatable in terms that

54:38

I think a lot of Americans would understand, minus

54:40

140 might be a weird way to put it.

54:42

The break even percentage there is 58.3%. In

54:46

this matchup, I think the true probability of us

54:49

not seeing a two point conversion attempt is closer

54:51

to the range of 65 to

54:53

70%. So with that kind of gap, I'm

54:55

just going to go ahead and take the

54:57

plunge minus 140 on no two point conversion

54:59

attempt. All right. I don't know.

55:01

I think you did. You said you did

55:03

because you referred to yourself as Lem. So

55:05

you heard myself and Jim do a couple

55:08

of props ourselves are super well informed props.

55:10

And based on the same

55:12

thought of those coaches not

55:14

being the most analytically driven or aggressive, I had over

55:16

47 and a half of the longest

55:21

field goal. Same, same thought minus

55:23

105 at that. How about another

55:25

one? Yeah. And to your

55:27

point with the longest field goal, I like that. I

55:29

think these kickers both have big legs. If the coaches

55:32

are going to be conservative, then you know,

55:34

the lines in the NFC title game, you were

55:36

next to me rooting in lines under one and

55:38

a half made field goals. And that had every

55:40

opportunity to lose here. I kind of like to

55:42

pivot the underway and a subtle edge, by the

55:44

way, that could work in your favor with the

55:47

Super Bowl being played in Vegas. The altitude is

55:49

about double what we've had for any previous Super

55:51

Bowl, thinner air helping the ball travel a little

55:53

bit farther. So probably not going to make a

55:55

big difference. But if push comes to shove, maybe

55:57

the kickers are both a little bit more aggressive.

56:00

little less inclined to compromise accuracy for distance

56:02

when distance is already going to be on

56:04

their side in Vegas. All right. You got,

56:06

you got one more prop for me that you'll, I'll put these

56:08

in the show notes by the way, so you don't have to

56:10

crash your car, scribbling them down. Do you have another one that

56:12

you really like? Sure. Um,

56:14

I, I'm happy to speak to two more, but if we,

56:16

if we must do one, I'll have no, no, I know

56:18

I can be a bit of a mercenary, but as a

56:20

fun prop risk a little to win a lot, I

56:23

do see some value on Debo Samuel to

56:25

win Super Bowl MVP at 20 to one,

56:27

the current price at DraftKings. Now,

56:29

the wannabe wise guy in me feels

56:31

obligated to caveat that non-binary bet, binary

56:34

meaning yes or no over under this team

56:36

or that team and so on non-binary

56:38

bets typically bake in a bigger hold

56:41

for the sports book, so that

56:43

can mean value is harder to come by,

56:45

but it doesn't mean that value is impossible

56:47

to come by. And of course there's no

56:49

harm in having some fun so long as

56:52

you're gambling responsibly. So the handicap for Debo

56:54

here, if the Niners win, their offense is

56:56

much less reliant on the quarterback than most

56:59

Super Bowl champions. Of course, we've got other

57:01

contenders thinking of Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Ayuk, George

57:03

Hittle, but with Debo, I really like the

57:05

rushing and receiving dual threat capability he brings

57:08

to the table and tying that

57:10

back into one of my ex-actors for this

57:12

game, if the Niners physicality does beat the

57:14

chief's aggression on the perimeter, I feel like

57:16

there's a long tail for Debo's possible production

57:18

here and Chris in that NFC title game

57:21

we watched together. As we were

57:23

arriving at my house, I was firing at

57:25

a bet on Debo Samuel rushing yards under

57:27

anticipating limited usage coming off the shoulder

57:29

injury that sidelined him for most of that. I remember.

57:33

I am happy to admit I got so

57:35

lucky to catch that ticket against the trait

57:37

Debo was used a lot more than I

57:39

expected and he looked a lot healthier than

57:41

I expected. So I think he'll be pretty darn

57:44

close to 100% for the Super Bowl after

57:46

the bye week. Of course, when we're

57:48

talking a 20 to one flyer, it's most likely

57:50

going to lose at 20 to one our break

57:52

even probability is a little less than 5%. For

57:55

Debo winning the MVP, I think the true odds

57:58

should be closer to that 5 to 10%. percent

58:00

range and the spirit of bankroll management a

58:02

small edge don't unload on it But I

58:04

certainly can't fault a small flyer on Divo

58:06

MPP. All right I'll

58:09

give you one. We're gonna wrap this

58:11

up pretty quick, but The

58:14

the second half totals have you heard this

58:17

one in chief's game this

58:19

year Yeah, in these games this year second

58:21

half totals are 18 in two to the

58:23

under So

58:27

are you looking specifically at the second half under

58:29

is that a bet that you've made or one

58:31

that you're eyeing? I you know,

58:33

it's not available everywhere I don't actually think it's available

58:35

on DraftKings just yet But it obviously will be during

58:37

the game, you know, and I yeah, I think I'm

58:39

on I think I would be on the under I

58:41

mean just cuz I I'm sort of blown away by

58:43

that stat Yeah, and a

58:46

bet that is available at a lot of books right

58:48

now is which half will be higher scoring So that

58:50

could be a way to get in play at a

58:52

similar concept cool one Thing

58:55

that would give me some pause there is that when I when

58:58

I try and get this much noise Right.

59:00

I feel like for the Super Bowl. It's hard for

59:02

it not to be priced in it Maybe for a

59:05

good chunk of the regular season it wasn't yeah I

59:07

think I saw it out of the bag But

59:10

there's a non-zero chance that some quote-unquote sharp betters

59:12

might just say oh, that's just a random trend

59:14

trends don't matter who cares Also, I'm talking I

59:16

mean, I'll just take the I'll take

59:19

the with it matters. Yeah, I'll take the

59:21

win Fine. It's minus 150, you

59:23

know, I'll still take the win I understand that you

59:25

know, if it's minus 700, I wouldn't you know, there

59:27

is there is a threshold point But if I really

59:29

believe in it and I think there's a lot of

59:31

logic There's a lot of football reasons why that's true

59:34

Because I don't I still don't think the market

59:36

has caught up to this Chiefs offense kind of

59:38

not being that great You know, so what's your

59:40

last one? Sure So this

59:43

one will be kind of a converse to the last

59:45

that I shared some people would refer to it as

59:47

a bridge jumper type of prop where you're risking a

59:49

lot to win a little and I'll

59:52

admit it's ugly when it loses but risking

59:54

a lot in Super Bowl props can often

59:56

be a discount relative to true probabilities Where

59:58

I'm going here. No, okay to hit the

1:00:00

up ring. At Draften, they're only

1:00:02

offering a one-way market right now. Yes, at

1:00:05

plus 800, you can't bet the no. But several

1:00:07

other books are offering two-way markets where you can

1:00:09

bet the yes or the no. And

1:00:12

I'm seeing the no right now as low as

1:00:14

minus 700. I consider that

1:00:16

to be a bettable number. And I discussed this

1:00:18

prop on this week's episode of Props and Hops

1:00:20

with a pro bettor who goes by the name

1:00:23

Hitman. I say that blows

1:00:25

Lem out of the water when you can

1:00:27

get Hitman, is your name in betting circles.

1:00:29

He's arguably the best prop bettor in the

1:00:31

world. And he's with me on this one.

1:00:33

But we're waiting to fire because there's a

1:00:35

pretty good chance the odds improve his kickoff

1:00:37

approaches. That's because a lot of public money

1:00:39

is going to enter the marketplace. And go

1:00:41

to the unique event where your volume of

1:00:44

public money can influence the odds and the

1:00:46

public loves doing a few things.

1:00:48

A big plus money payout for that lottery ticket

1:00:50

mentality. Yes, on things to happen as opposed to

1:00:52

no on things not to happen. And yeah, to

1:00:54

your point, the doink people love the chaos. Who

1:00:56

doesn't love it and people want to have a

1:00:58

good time out with their bets. I

1:01:00

totally get it. And for good measure, one

1:01:03

of the kickers in this game, Harrison Bucker fired

1:01:05

off a doink in last year's Super Bowl. So

1:01:07

with some recency bias, first they're moving the needle

1:01:10

here. I think we might see this

1:01:12

price drop as low as minus 600. And circling

1:01:15

back to a point I made earlier, I can be

1:01:17

more of a mercenary. So I get it if this

1:01:20

isn't for everybody. But I think there is going to

1:01:22

be value betting to know for this prop at the

1:01:24

current price of minus 700. Our break even probability is

1:01:26

87.5%. I think the true probability of this ticket

1:01:31

cashing is more in the range of 90 to

1:01:33

95%. I will

1:01:35

encourage readers to use a

1:01:37

listeners to read the fine print wherever they're betting

1:01:39

this at some books, the language can differ. Is

1:01:42

it just the uprights or is the crossbar also

1:01:44

in play? Does it have to be a missed

1:01:46

kick? Or does it count whether the kick is

1:01:48

good or no good? So as with all props,

1:01:50

know what you're signing up for before you place

1:01:52

your bets. But with that unique edge of Vegas

1:01:54

hosting the Super Bowl, the ball

1:01:56

probably traveling a little bit farther than it would in

1:01:58

other venues and kickers not even. needing to compromise

1:02:00

accuracy for distance, I just feel like a

1:02:03

doink would be fun. I'm just betting against it happening

1:02:05

in this match up at minus 700 or better. I

1:02:09

think I've known you for something like seven years

1:02:11

and I've always thought of you as no fun.

1:02:13

No, that's not true. Vivo

1:02:16

MVP, baby. Anti-doink, that's what

1:02:18

truly, I've always thought of you as

1:02:20

anti-doink. I just never could really totally

1:02:23

materialize it into one opinion, but you're

1:02:25

anti-doink. You're Lem and

1:02:27

you're anti-doink. If

1:02:29

I were to play one position in football,

1:02:31

it would probably be place-kicker so that I

1:02:33

could maintain my brain for the rest of

1:02:35

my life and just thinking vicariously along those

1:02:37

lines, anti-doink is a fair way to put

1:02:40

it. Anti-doink. All right, we'll

1:02:42

follow Matt on Twitter, at lay of the

1:02:44

landies, L-A-N-D-E-S. Listen

1:02:46

to the Props and Hops show. You can, you know,

1:02:48

you're probably hearing this on maybe on Thursday or Friday,

1:02:51

you can still get all of Matt's pre-super

1:02:53

Bowl content. It's on Props and Hops. Just

1:02:55

subscribe, download. It's a good show. I'm gonna

1:02:57

keep on with Matt interviewing other folks who know

1:02:59

this business better than I do. And it's

1:03:01

good stuff. And Matt, I appreciate you doing

1:03:03

this. I hope I get to see you soon.

1:03:07

We saw each other a couple weeks ago. See you

1:03:09

soon. And in the meantime, get some

1:03:11

rest. I know the season ending is a good thing. Thank

1:03:13

you very much for coming on. Chris,

1:03:16

thanks for having me. I've been a big

1:03:18

fan of the little podcast that could since

1:03:20

its inception, a proud person of the book.

1:03:22

So I appreciate the opportunity to contribute to

1:03:24

your work in any small way possible. And

1:03:27

hopefully listeners have found some value in this conversation

1:03:29

that can add to their Super Bowl experience. And

1:03:34

thank you so much for listening to

1:03:36

me. Thank three great sponsors because they're

1:03:38

great and because without them, we wouldn't

1:03:40

have been able to make a show

1:03:43

today. We had trade coffee, a good

1:03:45

Valentine's Day promotion going on. We had

1:03:47

AG1, always recommend AG1, drink

1:03:49

it every single day. And of course, DraftKings,

1:03:51

we just got through at the end there,

1:03:54

talking about some props and we would Love

1:03:56

it! If you're interested in finding a place to play

1:03:58

the games. If you do! DraftKings. If you do

1:04:00

the heck eris. Ah, Promo code

1:04:03

that helps and let them know that sponsoring

1:04:05

works. That's the case with all the sponsors

1:04:07

on the show. I'm not making a commission

1:04:09

and make a single dime. It's not an

1:04:12

affiliate thing, it's just advertising. But they do

1:04:14

track the effectiveness of the ads. So if

1:04:16

you'd like to sports show and new have

1:04:18

the means and a need and you can

1:04:21

use one of the promo codes you can

1:04:23

fight all the current sponsors and Harris football.com

1:04:25

We've done it. We've preview to this big

1:04:27

game. It's Chiefs. Forty Niners should be fun,

1:04:29

should be interesting. I'm sure I'll be. Tweeting

1:04:32

a little bit. Blue Sky is now

1:04:34

that Blue Skies Public. Follow me on

1:04:37

Blue Sky. By the way, it's it's

1:04:39

opened. Everybody you don't need an invite

1:04:41

code anymore. I'm over there. Harris for

1:04:43

boy, you'll find me and will make

1:04:46

sure we post both places for a

1:04:48

while. And if you're interested in coming

1:04:50

and hanging out, remember at the Hyatt

1:04:52

Centric in Downtown Austin on Congress Avenue.

1:04:55

Seven thirty Pm Friday, February Twenty Third.

1:04:57

Ah, To. Be. There and if we

1:04:59

get tons and tons of people in the spaces

1:05:01

big enough, we'll figure it out. But. I

1:05:03

don't know. I don't know how many people

1:05:06

are going to come soaks up. Please do

1:05:08

show up if you'd like to. That would

1:05:10

be pretty cool and that's get a do

1:05:12

it. Except in February. As as I mentioned,

1:05:14

cousin Josh and I will do a movie

1:05:16

podcast but for football that's that's a wrap

1:05:18

for a month or so I mentioned off

1:05:20

the top. I'll be back. Ah

1:05:23

on whatever was March something

1:05:25

hearts seven and will start

1:05:27

talking about free agency which

1:05:29

is great but for now

1:05:31

that's gonna. Put. A rap on

1:05:33

this show up! I hope you enjoy the

1:05:35

Super Bowl. I guess it off the top.

1:05:37

Taken. Over ticket to lift. Take whatever

1:05:39

rideshare stay alive that be great. I

1:05:41

would appreciate it. Let's all agree. Let's

1:05:43

all meet back here in about a

1:05:45

month and will continue to have fun

1:05:47

on hills And thanks again so much

1:05:49

for the secure hat is awesome! You're

1:05:51

awesome for wearing it I will thoughts

1:05:54

you So here's a Thought podcast opening

1:05:56

soon as on the the Bomb is

1:05:58

hop normal. and

1:06:00

stay left by the well-being. Subscribe

1:06:03

to the podcast on iTunes and never miss

1:06:05

an episode.