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apply. Hello

0:25

and welcome to How to Win 2024. It's

0:28

Thursday, February 8th. I'm Jennifer Palmieri

0:30

and I'm here with my co-host Claire McCaskill. Good morning,

0:32

Claire. So I hear

0:34

you're in Vegas, you know, and I

0:36

know what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. So I'm not

0:38

going to ask very many questions. Although

0:40

I am anxious to know, have you had

0:43

any chief sightings? Have you

0:45

seen any of my Kansas City chiefs wandering

0:47

the strip? Well, that's a good sign. That

0:49

means they're sticking to their knitting. That's

0:51

true. I did drag cats where they were staying. I

0:53

think they were like out in Henderson. Yeah, I think

0:55

they put them all, they put both teams away. It's

0:57

like where we stayed. Obama did debate prep here in

1:00

12 and like we stayed off the strip out there.

1:02

It's nice, but it's quiet. And yeah, I did not.

1:04

The only sighting I had is Roger

1:06

Goodell staying at my hotel. Roger Goodell

1:08

and all of the NFL owners are here. Oh, there you go. So

1:11

have you won any money? No, no, I'm not a gambler. I'm

1:14

not into it. I kind of like watch people play craps

1:16

because it actually is sort of a community event and people

1:18

are cheering each other on in a way you don't normally

1:20

see. I like that. Yeah. Yeah.

1:24

Okay. So speaking of money and you're not

1:26

winning any, we're going to check on the

1:28

state of the economy today with Jason Furman. He

1:31

is a professor of economics at Harvard

1:33

and a very familiar face to those

1:35

of us who work closely with the

1:37

Obama administration because he was Obama's top

1:39

economic advisor for the entire terms of

1:41

President Obama all eight years. We want

1:43

him to kind of lay out where

1:45

the economy is now and why is

1:47

it so hard for people to see

1:49

all the positive signs that economists

1:52

see? And what he

1:54

thinks Biden needs to do to emphasize

1:56

the economic wins that the Biden administration

1:58

has had. And we're

2:00

also going to spot our vice president. There's been

2:02

a lot of talk on the right that a

2:05

vote for Biden is a vote for President Harris

2:07

and suggesting that that's a bad thing. So we

2:09

want to dispel the idea that that's something to

2:11

be aware of, but should in fact

2:13

be celebrated. And also, to answer that

2:15

question from the linear own lives, all

2:17

the accomplishments and qualifications of Vice President

2:19

Harris, which as you know, Claire, women

2:21

in office have to constantly reinforce. Correct.

2:23

But first, we've got some winners and

2:25

losers. And we've got, it's always

2:28

hard to pick. We always have so many

2:30

people that we think are losers. And

2:32

it's a whole lot more challenges every week

2:34

is, well, who is the biggest loser? But

2:37

first, what about winners? Who do you have as a

2:39

winner this week, Jen? So this is

2:41

a good one because it hasn't got

2:43

a lot of attention, but this is

2:45

Biden winning the cash dash. So money,

2:47

critically important in campaigns. And the truth

2:49

is Biden has a lot of it.

2:51

So Trump's pack has spent more than

2:53

it's taken in last month dealing with

2:55

legal expenses. Biden has built a

2:57

healthy stockpile, kind of working quietly behind the

3:00

scenes. They've done well with that. So

3:02

MAGA Inc. is the main super pack that

3:04

backs Trump. And it's spent more than it

3:06

raised in the last six months of 23.

3:09

That's primarily because it transferred

3:11

$30 million to Save

3:13

America, for the sake, which

3:15

is the main vehicle that Trump is using to

3:17

pay his legal fees. And on

3:19

the official campaign side, it blew through more

3:21

cash than it took in over the last

3:24

three months of the year. Compare that to

3:26

Biden. So he ended the year with $46

3:28

million in cash. That's

3:30

far more than the $33 million that

3:32

Trump's campaign held before the Iowa Caucuses

3:34

in New Hampshire primary. So see how

3:36

much they spent there. And future forward,

3:38

that's the super pack that's backing Biden.

3:41

Has a little more in the bank than Trump's

3:43

super pack MAGA Inc. I know I hear

3:45

a lot about it. They are ferociously raising

3:48

money and intend to raise, as you

3:50

know, Claire, quite a bit. Yeah, hundreds

3:52

of millions of dollars they're planning on the

3:54

Biden campaign is going to spend, I

3:56

would predict, upwards of $300 million on advertising.

4:00

before this is all said and done. And

4:02

the burn rate is something we talk about

4:04

in politics. And for everyone to understand, the

4:07

burn rate is basically how you assess how

4:09

a campaign is doing with the frankly tricky

4:11

job of amassing a whole bunch of money

4:14

and then making sure you spend it wisely

4:16

in a fairly short period of time. And

4:18

this is what got Ron DeSantis in

4:20

trouble, his burn rate. His payroll was

4:23

so big, he had such an affinity

4:25

for private jets, he was spending

4:27

a fortune, you know, over a year ago.

4:29

And as a result, when he got finished

4:31

in Iowa, and he was no

4:33

longer the flavor of the month, he

4:36

had a real difficulty getting his

4:38

stores replenished, and he wasn't going to

4:40

have enough money to continue to compete. So burn rate

4:42

matters. Now, I have to admit, this

4:44

is the first time I have ever seen someone spend

4:46

$50 million trying to keep themselves out of jail. But,

4:51

I mean, you know, who knew that

4:53

this was going to be a new thing about

4:56

burn rate? And who knew that you could get

4:58

away with it and not have a major drop

5:00

in the polls, that spending money to keep yourself

5:02

out of jail, your donor's money, is now

5:04

okay with this crowd? It is just bizarre.

5:07

Okay, so losers. Well, this isn't hard. Let me

5:09

tell you a fairy tale that frankly is unbelievable

5:12

on its face. Imagine a time when

5:14

the Democrats in the Senate want to help

5:16

our allies, and they want to bring forth

5:18

a bill with significant funding for Ukraine, for

5:21

Israel, and for Taiwan. Imagine the

5:23

Republicans saying, oh no, not so

5:25

fast, you guys. We

5:28

don't want to help our allies until you

5:30

do something about the border. And they propose

5:32

things that are so conservative that they are

5:34

confident the Democrats will not

5:36

take the bait. And fast forward, lo

5:39

and behold, after months of negotiations, what

5:42

do the Democrats produce? Exactly

5:44

what the Republicans had asked for.

5:46

Exactly what they'd asked for. Reforming

5:48

asylum, closing the border when the surges

5:51

come, ending catch and release, all the

5:53

things that they didn't think the Democrats

5:55

would ever do that Democrats did. And

5:57

so what did they do then? they

6:00

got the little signal, the wink wink,

6:02

nod nod from the orange guy at

6:04

the golf course, they said no. They

6:07

said no. So the biggest losers, including

6:09

Mitch McConnell, who ended up voting against

6:11

it, you know, there were only four

6:13

Republicans who voted for it, one of

6:16

whom's retiring, Mitt Romney, and then Lisa

6:18

Murkowski and Susan Collins, and Jim Langford,

6:20

poor Jim Langford, who has been

6:22

just roasted over this unfairly.

6:25

And then we had some Democrats vote against it because

6:27

it was too conservative. Right. So

6:29

because per your earlier comments, it's

6:31

super conservative. Yeah. So the Senate

6:33

Republicans are trying to emulate their

6:35

loser friends down the hall, and

6:37

they are now behaving as badly

6:40

as the House Republicans have been

6:42

behaving for months. But don't let

6:44

the House Republicans off the hook,

6:46

Claire, because the failed

6:48

mayor kiss impeachment vote, I

6:50

mean, the incompetent, you

6:52

know, there's like, bad judgment, bad

6:55

use of time. This is wholly

6:57

unjustified, bizarre logic and trying to

6:59

impeach the Secretary of Homeland Security,

7:01

Ellie Mayorkas. And then they mess

7:04

it up on the House floor

7:06

and don't actually get enough votes

7:08

to pass their own ridiculous made

7:11

up impeachment thing. Yeah, by the

7:13

way, can they count? Can

7:16

they count? Like, what is Nancy Pelosi

7:18

is just like, jokers, you all are

7:20

a bunch of jokers. When the

7:22

Speaker of the House doesn't understand

7:24

that his major political move he's

7:26

making impeachment orchids, when he can't

7:28

count, and when he knows he has three no

7:31

votes, and he knows how many people have to

7:33

be there to vote, there is no excuse just

7:35

because Al Green was in the hospital, we've had

7:37

plenty of times I can assure you, I

7:40

remember on Obamacare, Teddy Kennedy coming

7:42

back in a very bad

7:44

health to vote. We've had many times we've

7:46

had people vote from the cloakroom with their

7:49

thumb sticking out because they were not well.

7:51

So it's not unusual to have someone

7:53

come and vote who has been in the hospital.

7:55

So I think that

7:57

was the Republicans excuse, they're like, well, we didn't know that.

8:00

like the Democratic Congressman Al Green was going

8:02

to show up because he had been in the

8:04

hospital. But this is your job. Your job is

8:06

to save all outcomes. This is never happened with

8:08

Nancy Pelosi. And then he puts

8:10

Israel on the floor, which I'm like trying

8:12

to figure that out. He puts funding for

8:14

Israel by itself on the floor. So now

8:17

the Republicans own failing to fund Israel. Nobody

8:19

is going to go, well, the Democrats voted

8:21

against it. Well, he knew the

8:23

Democrats were going to vote against it. Why would you

8:25

put funding for Israel on the floor if you're in

8:27

the majority and you can't pass it? These

8:30

guys are really bad at their jobs. Our

8:33

friend Chuck Todd sums this up nicely because

8:35

people may think, oh, this is just normal

8:37

house Republican incompetence. So there's, I grew

8:39

up in a military family, great military terms.

8:41

One is snafu. People sometimes misunderstand what that

8:44

means. What it actually stands for, it's

8:46

an acronym. Situation normal,

8:48

all F'd up. So

8:50

the house messing up the

8:53

Israel bill, that's kind of a snafu. And

8:56

then there's FUBAR, which is F'd

8:59

up beyond all recognition. This

9:01

is something different than a snafu. And

9:04

the house right now is FUBAR. So

9:07

do you have an honorable mention for losers? Because we

9:09

couldn't leave Nikki off, could we? So

9:12

this, okay, yeah. So I'm in Vegas and

9:14

actually it's been super interesting. I came here

9:16

to observe the primaries. By the way, I

9:18

spent time in Clark County vote centers. These

9:20

are the people that are responsible for registering

9:22

to vote and counting the vote in an

9:24

incredibly professional operation. They were staffed as if

9:26

it was the general election day in 2024, just

9:29

to be prepared and have a good dry run.

9:31

And it turns out, it turned

9:33

out was relatively low. The people who did not use

9:36

the primary in Nevada as a good dry

9:38

run are both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley.

9:40

For Nikki Haley, none of

9:42

these candidates gets 40,000 votes. She

9:45

only gets 20,000 votes. But

9:48

then Trump, Biden won the state in

9:50

20 and Catherine Cortez Masto, the Senator,

9:53

won in 22, as

9:55

you know, clear, partly because of the great

9:57

ground game Democrats have, the Reed Machine, the

9:59

Harry R. read machines still in effect

10:01

here. And Trump could have

10:03

used this opportunity to build a

10:06

good organization because he needs one in

10:08

Nevada, you know, used in Nevada caucuses,

10:10

which are happening today, which is super

10:12

confusing Republican primary, no delegates

10:14

accrue to that. The Republican caucuses today

10:16

delegates do accrue to that Trump is

10:18

in the caucus, Haley is not. And

10:21

he didn't really do it. And they think

10:23

that, you know, John Ralston, Mr. Nevada, he

10:25

thinks maybe less people will caucus for Trump

10:28

than voted for Haley. So what

10:30

the bottom line is, is Nevada, the

10:32

curtain closes on Nevada picking a presidential

10:34

candidate, we can say with emphasis and

10:36

gusto to close out this segment, none

10:39

of these candidates win. Just

10:41

none of these candidates win. We

10:43

got to take a quick break. But when we come back

10:46

former Obama economic advisor and all around economy

10:48

expert Jason Furman, he's an economist who actually

10:50

talks like a normal person, which is really

10:52

good. He joins me and she and to

10:54

look at what the Biden administration has

10:56

done, what they've accomplished, and why voters and why

10:59

many economists didn't see it. We had a lot

11:01

of people on Wall Street that were wrong about

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what happened. Let's see what he's got to say. We'll be

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12:07

back. Thinking back to 2021 when

12:09

President Biden took office, the U.S.

12:11

economy was really in the dregs.

12:13

It was a mess. We were

12:15

slowly coming out of the pandemic. The supply

12:17

chain woes were making everything

12:19

very expensive. Unemployment was

12:21

still incredibly high and people's household incomes

12:23

were hurting. And frankly, how quickly we

12:26

forget. Yeah, I mean, cut to 2024,

12:28

the economy is booming. Inflation is easing.

12:30

Unemployment is at a record low. We

12:33

had a blowout jobs report. More

12:36

than twice the consensus expectation. Now,

12:39

I know many of my conservative friends

12:41

are trying to drill holes in this report.

12:44

But you know what, folks? It is

12:46

what it is. It's a very strong report.

12:49

But how the economy is doing and how

12:52

people are feeling about it and who they

12:54

credit for it are sometimes at odds. There

12:56

was an NBC poll that came out this

12:58

weekend that was very concerning for those of

13:01

us who want Joe Biden to win because

13:03

it showed that Trump had a 20-point advantage

13:05

on who was better to lead on the

13:07

economy, even though Trump is way off when

13:09

it comes to why the market is thriving.

13:12

The Biden team can say, well, if things are so bad,

13:14

how come the stock market's on a roll? Because

13:17

they think I'm going to be elected. You

13:19

think the stock market's rallying because people think you're going

13:21

to be elected? I do, yeah. And I would

13:23

say to talk to us about why

13:26

Trump is so off base with this

13:28

analysis and where we are headed is

13:30

Dr. Jason Furman. He is professor of

13:32

economic policy at Harvard University and served

13:34

eight years as top economic advisor to

13:37

President Barack Obama. And frankly, one of

13:39

the reasons he's one of my favorite economists

13:41

of all time. Well, there's many reasons. One was time

13:43

on an airplane in 2008 when we were very excited

13:45

about none other than Senator Barack

13:51

Obama. But also because he's an

13:53

economist who can talk like a normal person. Welcome,

13:55

Jason. We are really happy to have you. This is

13:57

great. Just wish we could be doing it on an

13:59

airplane. airplane. Yeah. Going

14:02

to my spot. Jason and

14:04

I worked together for President Clinton and President Obama,

14:06

and both times I was in the press office

14:08

and be like, Jason, oh my God,

14:10

you have to explain this because you are the

14:12

one who can do it in English. So you're

14:15

an economist, but you also understand politics and you

14:17

worry about how these things interact. And so I

14:19

think a lot of people saw that poll from

14:21

NBC and it's like, oh my God, the economy

14:24

is the most important issue. Trump

14:26

has a 20 point advantage over Biden. That

14:29

must mean that Biden is going to lose

14:31

the Biden campaign believes that they're going to

14:33

win. And they do not expect that

14:35

on the day that Biden does win, that he

14:37

will have an advantage over Trump on

14:39

who Americans think is better to handle

14:42

the economy. But what they want to

14:44

do is cut into his lead, have

14:46

people think the economy is strong enough

14:49

that they're not looking for a change.

14:52

And Biden doesn't have to fully overcome that,

14:54

but he needs to overcome that in some

14:56

way. And that's the advantage for

14:58

that. And how do you think he should best or

15:00

can best do that, Jason? So it's great to be

15:02

with both of you. And

15:06

the truth is the economy is frankly in better

15:08

shape than I thought it would be. You know,

15:10

there's the same as unicorn in economics called the

15:12

soft landing, which is this idea that

15:15

you can get inflation down without causing

15:17

a recession. It's basically

15:19

never happened before up until

15:21

now. And it actually did.

15:24

Election came down and the unemployment

15:26

rate has been basically tied for a

15:29

50 year low for two years now. And by

15:31

the way, just to put this in some perspective,

15:33

when Barack Obama ran for reelection in 2012, the

15:37

unemployment rate was 8%. Right

15:40

now the unemployment rate is less than half of

15:42

that. I don't remember that.

15:44

Yeah, no, somehow he won with an

15:46

8% unemployment rate. Now,

15:48

8% was better than 10%, which is what it had been

15:50

in his first year in

15:52

office. So it was coming down, but it was

15:55

really high. It was really high. Now,

15:57

we know that people don't not just.

16:00

political polls like the one you were

16:02

citing, but in more economic polls like

16:04

consumer sentiment, Armin's incredibly positive

16:06

about the economy. But there's

16:09

some good news there, which is in the last

16:11

month or two, there's sentiment in the economic polls.

16:13

And I haven't seen this in the political polls.

16:15

I don't read those as closely, has been picking

16:17

up. And so part of

16:19

me thinks that there may be long

16:22

and variable lags between what happens in

16:24

the economy and in economic sentiment

16:26

and that it makes people a bit of time.

16:28

And that's not crazy of people,

16:31

right? You don't want to just see a job number

16:33

and then totally change your mind about the economy. You

16:35

want to see six months of

16:37

progress. Inflation came down really

16:40

starting about six or seven months ago, that

16:42

people want to wait a few more months

16:44

to let it sink in. I don't think

16:46

that's crazy on anyone's part. And so that's

16:48

my hope is that some of what's going

16:50

on here is just these lags between changes

16:52

in the economy and when people really start

16:54

to believe it. So traditionally in

16:56

campaigns that I have run

16:58

and been a part of,

17:01

we have always worried about the two Fs,

17:03

food and fuel, because it

17:05

always feels like those two things

17:08

are the things that people gauge the

17:11

economy by, how much they're paying for a

17:13

tank of gas and how much they're paying

17:15

at the grocery store. Those two I'm worried

17:17

about. Can you talk a little bit about

17:19

the Red Sea and whether or not you

17:21

think we're going to have a fuel disruption

17:24

price increase? And secondly,

17:27

what's going on with the food prices? Why

17:29

did I pay like $9 for

17:31

a jar of mayonnaise in New York a

17:33

few weeks ago? I mean, what in the...

17:35

That make anybody feel like the economy

17:37

sucks. Right. So

17:39

the two Fs right now are very different. Food

17:42

prices really are high. They went up, they haven't

17:44

come down. You wouldn't expect them to come down,

17:46

but they went up about 6% more

17:49

than the rest of inflation. So there

17:51

really still is an issue with food

17:54

and it's very visible for consumers. The

17:56

low inflation we've had over the A

18:00

lot of that has been on the durable

18:02

goods side, cars, things like that, but it's

18:04

not in everything and it hasn't showed up

18:07

in food. Fuel is really quite

18:09

low. It's about $3 a gallon, a

18:11

little bit over that nationwide. It's quite

18:13

low right now. I share

18:15

your nervousness. Anything can happen with

18:17

fuel prices around the world. If

18:20

you look at what financial markets are betting,

18:22

you look at futures prices, they

18:24

are not betting that fuel prices are gonna go

18:26

up right now. So, as

18:28

scary as the headlines look in the

18:31

newspaper, the people who have money at

18:33

stake are not betting that that's gonna

18:35

show up in higher oil prices. I'm

18:37

not a geopolitical expert, but that seems

18:40

like a reasonable judgment to me. There's

18:42

one other gasoline issue though, just that

18:44

every year I was in the White

18:46

House, you dealt with, which is that

18:48

gasoline always gets more expensive from February

18:50

through about July 4th, as people just

18:52

start getting in their cars and traveling

18:55

more. It's a seasonal thing, it happens

18:57

every year. And so, that'll drive everyone

18:59

a little nutty. So, I'm curious

19:01

about what tools the president

19:04

has. You were there, people,

19:06

I think, put too much

19:08

blame on the president for the economy,

19:10

and then probably give them too much

19:13

credit on the economy. What

19:15

actual levers does the president have,

19:17

let's say with fuel, or with

19:19

any other of these indicators? And

19:22

talk for a minute, if you

19:24

would, about whether or not you

19:26

really think the Inflation Reduction Act,

19:28

whether all those stimulus spending, as it

19:30

relates to the infrastructure, whether

19:32

we're seeing that in the economy yet,

19:34

or is that still to come,

19:37

the jet fuel, speaking of fuel,

19:39

that massive amounts of public projects

19:41

around the country could provide? Talk

19:43

about those things a little bit, Jason. Yeah,

19:46

so, the president doesn't have a

19:48

lot of tools right now, and

19:50

that's because there's a Republican House

19:52

of Representatives, and they can't get

19:54

anything done, let alone something that's

19:56

needed for the economy. He's really

19:58

focused on implementing. the just

20:00

extraordinary amount of legislation he's

20:02

gotten done in terms of

20:05

climate change, chips, infrastructure,

20:07

and the like. I think that

20:09

is helping the economy right now.

20:11

I do think the bigger gains

20:13

from those legislation will be five

20:15

or 10 years in the future.

20:17

That's when the transformations will happen.

20:20

It's starting to help now. It's on the

20:22

plus side of the ledger, but you do

20:24

have to sell to people this vision of

20:27

the future, not just taking credit for what's

20:29

happened right now. That was gently said,

20:31

but it's a very important point. President

20:34

needs to articulate a vision for what he's going to

20:36

do in the next term, not to take credit for

20:38

what happened this time. Continue, sorry. Yeah,

20:40

I agree with you and me. On

20:43

oil, the president did do a release

20:45

from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve about two years

20:47

ago when oil prices got high. I think

20:49

that really did help at the time, break

20:51

the trend and send prices down. If

20:54

Saudi Arabia, somebody does something nutty,

20:56

there's always that tool. Fortunately,

20:59

you don't need Congress to do. Okay,

21:01

so Jason, can I ask you to be a messenger

21:03

or at least say how would you- I'm out of

21:05

that business, Jen, but I'll try for a moment for

21:07

you to think. Yeah, you're pretty good at it though.

21:09

I mean, if you were to say in the span

21:11

that you can do in one answer, make

21:13

the argument for what the president has

21:15

done in the first term to help

21:17

the economy, what would you

21:20

tell voters to try to make this

21:22

crystallize their minds for why things are

21:24

better and why he laid a new

21:26

foundation for the future? They're

21:28

better at that than me. You're better at that

21:30

than me. No, you're not. No, I'm not. I

21:32

would ask you what to do and then you would tell me. Write

21:35

it up. That's it. You

21:37

know, it's just we were in

21:39

a really difficult place three years

21:41

ago, economically and broader societally, and

21:44

now we've brought back stability to

21:46

the economy, an unemployment rate that's

21:48

the lowest in 50 years. We

21:52

know that prices are still high for

21:54

many of you, but it's getting better

21:57

and we're going to need to do more

21:59

to build on the- progress we made because

22:01

things are moving in the right direction even

22:03

if they're not all the way there for

22:05

everyone yet. So what Ford has embedded in

22:08

what you said is you're not over-growing

22:10

that everything is great. You're allowing for the

22:12

fact that people may still feel uneasy about

22:14

their personal situation but we've kind of turned

22:17

this corner. Is that right? Yeah and that's

22:19

the tricky debate we had under Obama which

22:21

is how much do you take credit versus

22:23

acknowledge the pain people have because you don't

22:26

want to seem too out of touch and

22:28

it's a tricky balancing act. It

22:30

was comical everyone we would say can we

22:33

say we turn the corner and it's like no

22:35

you can't say we've turned the corner. Do we

22:37

see the corner? You can almost see

22:39

the corner. I mean these are the debates we would have

22:41

because you have to be careful about having

22:43

people hear you if and if you're

22:45

too optimistic and take too much credit

22:48

they tune you out because it's unaligned

22:50

with where they are but the same

22:52

time the president should be optimistic and

22:54

be leading people to a point where

22:56

they do feel better particularly when the

22:58

circumstances call for that like now.

23:00

Can he say credibly we by the

23:02

way not just him like we everybody

23:04

working together laid an important

23:06

new foundation going forward because of

23:09

the chips bill that helps build semiconductor plans

23:11

and infrastructure is that a credible thing to

23:13

say economically? I think it's true so yeah

23:15

I think it's also credible. Okay great good.

23:18

So we have some audio of none

23:20

other than Steve Forbes speaking a little

23:22

bit about the US recovery as it

23:24

relates to the rest of the world.

23:26

Falling inflation and rising growth gives

23:28

the US the world's best recovery.

23:30

Steve Forbes with him this morning.

23:33

I think the Democrats are gonna run with that

23:35

headline. I mean they just got plastered this all

23:37

over the place but are they right? Is America

23:41

does America now have the best recovery? Well

23:43

yes. So yes we do

23:46

have the strongest economic recovery in the

23:48

world. I believe we can say that

23:50

certainly you can say that in the

23:52

campaign but I think we also need

23:54

to spend just a minute Jason before we let

23:56

you go to do a 101 on tariffs. most

24:00

Americans have not taken

24:02

in-depth economic courses, don't

24:04

really understand how tariffs work. And

24:06

Trump took advantage of that. He

24:09

basically told everyone that China was

24:11

paying this money. And of course,

24:13

that's not how tariffs work. Talk

24:16

about tariffs and Trump's affinity for

24:18

them and the political danger of

24:20

tariffs. And what was the real

24:22

economic impact of the tariffs that

24:24

he put in place in terms

24:26

of goods that Americans want to

24:28

buy for cheaper prices? Yeah,

24:30

the Trump tariffs are like a tax

24:33

on Americans. They're basically just like a

24:35

sales tax and they make the prices

24:37

of the products the consumers buy every

24:39

day go up. Moreover, there was recently

24:42

an economic analysis from Bloomberg that found

24:44

when you took the retaliation into account,

24:46

it would hurt economic growth and jobs

24:49

in the United States and

24:51

actually help China. Why would it help

24:53

China? Because more countries would start doing

24:55

business with China rather than doing business

24:57

with the United States because of all

25:00

of our tariffs. So it's like a

25:02

combination of a consumer tax increase and

25:04

a hit to economic growth. And Trump

25:06

has promised much, much more of it

25:09

if he's reelected. Do we still

25:11

have tariffs in place that are damaging?

25:13

Should this administration be looking at that

25:15

as one other tool they might have

25:17

to free up some more trade into

25:19

the country? Yeah, from my perspective,

25:21

the one lever that I wish the president

25:23

had pulled that he has in his own

25:25

power and he hasn't is to get rid

25:27

of some of those tariffs that are already

25:29

there. And by the way, he's right to

25:31

focus on national security ones. What

25:33

we don't mind is if China wants to

25:35

sell us washing machines, that's fine. We don't

25:37

want our consumers to have to pay more

25:39

for washing machines. If China wants to buy

25:42

guidance systems for missiles or advanced AI systems,

25:44

no, we don't want them to buy those.

25:46

And so this administration, I think in the

25:48

new stuff they've done, is very focused on

25:50

national security, not focused on hurting

25:52

American consumers. Well, first of all,

25:54

we have learned a lot today.

25:57

And I think I will now put

25:59

in my hard drive, tariffs are

26:01

just like a sales tax to

26:03

Americans because everybody gets the sales

26:05

tax part. And it was just amazing

26:07

to me that he just says stupid

26:09

stuff that's not right over and over

26:11

again until people take it as fact.

26:13

And it's so frustrating, especially when it

26:16

comes to economic information. And I'm just

26:18

like stealing myself for all the crap

26:20

he's going to say. Between now and

26:22

November, there's going to be like fingernails

26:24

on a chalkboard. I imagine it's even

26:26

harder for an economist to listen to

26:28

some of that nonsense and not want

26:30

to go strangle somebody. I

26:32

use some of them as questions in class.

26:34

They're very educational. There

26:37

you go. There you go. There's people thinking

26:39

about the nonsense that is actually coming

26:41

out of his mouth. Listen, we really

26:43

appreciate your time today. It was great

26:45

to have you. And it was fun

26:47

for me to take a trip down

26:49

memory lane and remember meeting you and

26:52

visiting with you on those campaign trips

26:54

on that airplane back when we all

26:56

were just hoping that someday he would

26:58

walk into the Oval Office. And I think thank

27:00

you for your government service and thank you for

27:02

continuing to educate the brightest minds in America. Well,

27:05

thanks for both of you. It's great to see

27:07

you, Jason. And fun fact about Jason Furman, friends,

27:09

he is an expert juggler. There you go. Yeah,

27:12

that's right. No, I mean, like

27:14

public performance worthy level juggler. Yeah,

27:17

not just economic policy. So you can come

27:19

to this podcast and learn how to win

27:21

in 2024 and learn important facts like

27:25

Jason Furman, one of the most economic

27:27

bright lights in our country can also

27:29

juggle. I love that. Absolutely. Okay,

27:32

I'm coming back any time with this treatment.

27:34

This is great. We're

27:37

gonna take a quick break. But when we come

27:39

back, Jen and I want a spotlight. The GOP

27:41

sphere based argument that a vote for Joe Biden

27:43

is a vote for Kamala Harris. Weird

27:45

that this is their strategy. Stay with us.

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Consumer Cellular. When Freedom Calls we're here to

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answer. Call us at 1-888-Freedom. Welcome

28:45

back. As the election season kicks into

28:47

full gear one issue remains a central

28:49

concern for voters across the political spectrum.

28:51

That the candidates are old and

28:54

that means voters are maybe going to

28:56

pay much closer attention to the vice

28:58

presidency than they might normally. That remains

29:00

to be seen but certainly it is

29:02

a valid hypothesis that people might be

29:04

paying more attention. So what do

29:06

we have there, Jen? So Republicans

29:08

and particularly Nikki Haley does this the most.

29:10

They're using this as the opportunity to push

29:12

a narrative that a vote for Biden is

29:14

a vote for Kamala Harris. And there's something

29:16

the GOP fears more than someone who is

29:19

not an old white man occupying the highest

29:21

office in the land. So today we're showing

29:23

a spotlight on how they're trying to weaponize

29:25

that effort. Also want people who are looking

29:27

to defend the vice president understand, also just

29:29

kind of understand what's happening here because I

29:31

think you as a longtime Democratic

29:33

elected official and then me from

29:36

my Hillary experience have a little insight

29:38

into why her pool rating is low,

29:40

why people are coming after her and

29:42

what to do to help her fight

29:44

back. Yeah so she was at

29:46

the breakfast club with Charmaine last

29:48

week. Haley. Yeah. Haley. And this

29:50

is her strategy where she is

29:53

really trying to make Kamala Harris the

29:55

person that people should be frightened of.

29:58

There will be a first female president.

30:01

It's either going to be Kamala Harris or it's going to

30:03

be me. And it should send a chill up everyone's spine

30:05

thinking about the fact that it would be Kamala Harris. Listen,

30:08

and then the follow-up on this, Jen, which was really

30:10

awkward. I know. It's really, I'm surprised it hasn't

30:13

gotten more attention. I know. Because

30:15

it's really stunning. The Breakfast Club asked her why

30:17

would she be such a bad POTUS? And

30:20

she said that because Barack

30:22

Obama caused so many problems. So in

30:24

other words, Kamala Harris equals Barack Obama

30:26

and I'm trying to figure out why

30:28

that is. Yeah. Maybe because

30:31

they're both black. I mean, she

30:33

actually said she blamed

30:35

Obama for starting racial

30:38

tensions. Said that started

30:40

during the Obama administration. And

30:42

that is why Kamala Harris was going to be

30:45

a bad president. You're just like, yeah, there's there

30:47

never has been a president who talked more about

30:49

uniting the country. There has never been a president

30:51

who tried to do everything he could. I mean,

30:53

remember the beginning when he was trying to put

30:56

Republicans on his cabinet and he did choose

30:58

some Republicans for his cabinet. Remember all

31:00

the efforts he made to continue to

31:02

unify. This was not a Donald Trump

31:05

presidency where he was playing to his

31:07

base. So for her to say that

31:09

really is revealing about something deep, dark

31:11

and ugly. And I'm disappointed that it

31:13

didn't get more attention. She put

31:15

up a billboard in South Carolina that basically said,

31:17

you know, vote for me because the hard truth

31:19

is going to be Trump can't be Biden and

31:22

Biden won't finish his presidency. So it's either

31:24

going to be me or Kamala Harris. Like

31:26

that alone is persuasive to elect her.

31:28

Which you may not know and you

31:31

probably know this is like there's this

31:33

great group, the Barbara Lee Family Foundation's

31:35

woman, Amanda Hunter, who works there as

31:37

a researcher and does phenomenal research about

31:39

women politicians. And they have research that

31:41

shows when a woman

31:43

attacks another woman's qualifications, what it

31:46

does in voters mind is raise

31:48

questions about the qualifications of the

31:51

woman who's attacking the other female

31:53

candidate. Like it's messed up what

31:55

she's doing in general. But also what the research

31:57

shows is that Haley is probably doing it. doing

32:00

damage to herself because it makes people question

32:02

like, well, I'm not sure I want that

32:04

woman to be president either. Yeah, let's take

32:06

a walk through Kamala Harris' qualifications because

32:08

I think people have not taken the

32:10

time to realize it's not an accident.

32:13

She's the vice president. She is there

32:15

because of an incredible record of accomplishment.

32:18

Keep in mind getting elected district attorney

32:20

in San Francisco back in 2004 when

32:22

she got elected, it's a very difficult

32:24

job to get. People want that

32:26

job and really good qualified people want that

32:28

job and she was elected in 2004. And

32:31

then in California, maybe the most

32:33

competitive state for a Democrat for

32:35

statewide office, she ran for attorney

32:38

general of California and won. She

32:40

was the executive of that office.

32:42

She ran the largest state-based justice

32:44

department in the country, hundreds

32:46

and hundreds of lawyers. She had hundreds of, frankly,

32:49

she had thousands of employees in

32:51

San Francisco and thousands of employees

32:53

as the attorney general of California.

32:55

And then she wins a United

32:58

States Senate seat. Once again, very

33:01

difficult to do replacing Barbara Boxer in

33:03

the Senate and then did great work

33:05

as a senator, respected

33:08

by her peers, was knowledgeable. She

33:10

did a great job in hearings. I served on a committee

33:12

with her. I watched her work. It was very

33:14

impressive. And that's why she was picked to

33:17

be vice president. So everybody who says

33:19

that this is some lightweight, they're not

33:22

paying attention to who she is and what she's done. What

33:24

about as vice president? I mean, the record

33:26

is pretty good too, huh? And the record

33:28

is vice president is pretty good. And like

33:31

when people to know that for women, even

33:33

when women are in office, they

33:35

still have to reassert their

33:37

credentials constantly in order for

33:40

people to feel comfortable that they have the qualifications

33:42

to do the job that they're doing. So it's

33:44

like Kamala Harris needs to say, he's like, well,

33:46

you know, from my time as

33:48

attorney general in California, I dealt

33:50

with a lot of crime. And therefore I can tell

33:52

you as vice president, it's like, this

33:55

is just the sort of different, even if you people

33:57

are wondering, I don't understand why people

33:59

are. attacking her so much, there's

34:01

this notion of the double bind and

34:03

our friend Erin Haines is writing a

34:06

book about this called Twice as

34:08

Hard. So Harris has got racism

34:10

and sexism and you know, I think this

34:12

reveals itself in the coverage of her. Reporters

34:15

that are covering Kamala Harris, you

34:17

know, I worked for Hillary Clinton, I've written two books

34:19

about what happens to women leaders

34:22

and see elements of

34:24

bias, both racial and gender

34:26

in her coverage. That doesn't mean that reporters

34:28

are racist and sexist, that's not what's happening.

34:32

But you know, we all have

34:34

unconscious bias, both race and gender

34:36

and it reveals itself with women

34:38

politicians in certain ways. One,

34:40

they question women's accomplishments. What has

34:42

she done? They need to constantly

34:44

hear, this is what the sort

34:46

of social research says, need

34:49

to constantly hear what a woman has

34:51

accomplished because if they aren't hearing what

34:53

she's accomplished, they're going to question if

34:55

she's actually getting anything done. We need

34:57

to constantly have a woman be credentialed

34:59

and remind us of what her qualifications

35:02

are. There's a lot of stories of

35:04

women candidates and politicians about their

35:06

staff, how they run their offices.

35:08

These are stories that generally, generally,

35:10

okay, don't happen to men. So

35:13

just to give you like a little insight

35:15

into why some of the coverage about her

35:17

is so negative, I think that this is

35:19

sort of the doubts that people have that's

35:21

at the root in a lot of our

35:23

brains. You know, just

35:25

in the last month, for

35:28

the beginning of January, she

35:30

has gone 13 trips, nine

35:33

states, 16 interviews, okay? That's

35:35

just from the beginning of the year.

35:37

She and the president both have had

35:39

a really aggressive travel schedule to early

35:41

states and battleground states. I went on

35:44

two trips with her recently, well, relatively

35:46

recently, July, I did an abortion rights

35:48

trip with her to Des Moines, and

35:50

then I went with her to London

35:52

for this AI conference. When she hits

35:54

the tarmac in Des Moines, there are

35:57

hundreds of cheering people. I

36:00

don't think hundreds of cheering people were

36:02

turning out to root on Mike Pence

36:04

when Air Force 2 landed anywhere, right?

36:06

We walk into this auditorium at Drake

36:09

University, stand innovation. People

36:11

are so excited to see her. Like I love

36:13

Al Gore. That didn't happen to Al Gore. So

36:16

there is both enthusiasm for her

36:18

that isn't acknowledged and then questions

36:21

about her despite

36:23

a lot of tough assignments, working on the

36:26

root causes of immigration, doing a lot of

36:28

diplomatic trips to Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, like

36:30

that's part of her job. That whole basket

36:32

of work is a difficult thing, but doing

36:35

a lot of work on the diplomatic side

36:37

on immigration. And you know, she has

36:40

taken on the abortion fight,

36:42

reproductive rights, voting rights. And

36:45

I think probably given

36:48

the voters that Biden has to

36:50

win back to win, young people,

36:52

Hispanic voters, Black voters, Kamala Harris

36:54

is uniquely positioned to help him

36:57

get those voters back. I

36:59

would argue electorally, she's

37:02

more helpful to him than a

37:04

running mate I can imagine. Remember

37:06

in recent history? Yeah. And

37:08

I think people forget that most

37:11

vice presidents are always

37:13

dismissed. Most vice presidents

37:15

frankly do more work behind the scenes

37:17

than in front of the cameras.

37:20

She has been given some of the

37:22

most difficult assignments. I mean, frankly, if

37:24

I just landed in the vice president's

37:26

job and I was told your job

37:28

is going to be immigration in Central

37:30

America, I'd say, what? Who

37:33

decided I got that? How

37:35

come I get that job? But

37:37

what did she do? She's gone

37:39

down there. She's connected over 400,000

37:41

people to skills based training. She's

37:44

connected 4 million people in Central America

37:46

to the internet. She has

37:48

put together billions of dollars of

37:50

private investment in these countries. She

37:53

is addressing one of the major problems,

37:55

which is these folks need

37:58

to have something in their home country. to

38:00

address not just the violence they

38:03

face, but their economic problems they

38:05

have. She's working on those root causes

38:07

and has not gotten enough credit for that. And I

38:09

agree. Here's the thing, in wrapping

38:11

up the spotlight on Kamala Harris, I

38:13

would just ask everyone, the next time someone

38:16

says to you, but you know that Kamala

38:18

Harris, look at them and say,

38:20

what is it specifically that she's done

38:22

that you find so objectionable? What is

38:24

it specifically about this woman that offends

38:26

you? When I do that,

38:29

June, people never have an answer. They

38:31

never have an answer. They have nothing

38:33

they can say. There's like, oh, well,

38:36

she's gonna, I hear someone saying, well, she's gonna bring

38:38

about real change. Biden's kind of mainstream, but she's not.

38:41

Yeah, no, she's kind of mainstream. No,

38:43

she's definitely mainstream. She's mainstream. And just a

38:45

couple other things I would say, because a lot of

38:47

things I hear is like, well, maybe it's not fair,

38:49

but Biden should get rid of her because that will

38:51

help him in the election. It will

38:53

not, friends. Okay, let me tell you something.

38:56

First of all, if he

38:58

removed Kamala Harris, which he will never do,

39:00

okay, she is a good

39:02

partner to him. They are good partners. He loves

39:04

her. It is never going to happen. Also,

39:07

he would look like a loser. If

39:09

you get rid of your vice president, you look

39:11

panicked and you look like you're losing. So that

39:14

is not happening. What can help? I

39:16

think you see the administration, in the campaign

39:18

commercials, you see Biden and Harris

39:20

together. People understand what their partnership

39:23

is about. She's fully in their ads.

39:25

That's important. Also, Emily's List

39:27

is doing, so that's the group that

39:29

helps elect women to elected office. They

39:31

have an independent expenditure where they're spending

39:33

tens of millions of dollars putting out

39:35

positive digital content about

39:38

her. Not necessarily beating back

39:40

the negative stuff, because that's kind of a

39:42

rabbit hole, but just having people see more

39:44

of her. Because the other problem for the vice

39:46

president is that you just don't actually get a

39:48

lot of coverage. So it's really hard to communicate.

39:50

So there's another effort to help boost her with

39:52

more content about what she's doing. All

39:54

right, so hopefully we've covered in glory

39:57

our great vice president and hopefully the campaign.

39:59

the campaign uses her effectively going forward.

40:04

Thanks so much for listening. As always,

40:06

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