Podchaser Logo
Home
Why is Israel not OK with the Gaza ceasefire plan that was accepted by Hamas? | In Focus podcast

Why is Israel not OK with the Gaza ceasefire plan that was accepted by Hamas? | In Focus podcast

Released Friday, 10th May 2024
Good episode? Give it some love!
Why is Israel not OK with the Gaza ceasefire plan that was accepted by Hamas? | In Focus podcast

Why is Israel not OK with the Gaza ceasefire plan that was accepted by Hamas? | In Focus podcast

Why is Israel not OK with the Gaza ceasefire plan that was accepted by Hamas? | In Focus podcast

Why is Israel not OK with the Gaza ceasefire plan that was accepted by Hamas? | In Focus podcast

Friday, 10th May 2024
Good episode? Give it some love!
Rate Episode

Episode Transcript

Transcripts are displayed as originally observed. Some content, including advertisements may have changed.

Use Ctrl + F to search

0:02

This is the In Focus Podcast from

0:04

the Hindu. The

0:30

whole of Gaza is on the brink

0:32

of famine. Earlier, there

0:34

was an air of optimism when

0:36

Hamas announced that it had accepted

0:39

a three-phase ceasefire proposal broken by

0:41

Qatar and Egypt and Israel

0:43

even sent a delegation to Cairo to discuss

0:45

this further. But in

0:47

the interim, during this week, Israel has

0:50

launched strikes on the city of Rafa

0:52

in southern Gaza Strip and taken over

0:54

the border crossing there. It

0:56

was critical for sending humanitarian aid to

0:58

Gaza. Meanwhile, President Biden

1:01

has paused a major shipment of

1:03

bombs headed for Israel, signaling

1:05

that US weapons should not be

1:08

used to target Palestinian civilians. So

1:11

what are the details of the ceasefire

1:13

proposal that Hamas has accepted but Israel

1:15

hasn't? Is the

1:17

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu serious

1:19

at all about the ceasefire negotiations

1:22

or has he merely been using it

1:24

as a cover to prepare for the

1:26

Rafa operation as is being alleged by

1:29

Hamas? And with

1:31

international public opinion mounting against

1:33

the continued Israeli assault, has

1:36

there been any shift in Washington's

1:38

position? We discuss all these

1:41

questions in detail in this episode of

1:43

In Focus and we are joined by

1:45

Stanley Jony, the Hindu's International Affairs Editor.

1:47

Stanley, thank you so much for

1:49

joining us and welcome back to In Focus. Thank

1:52

you, Sambat. Ceasefire

2:00

proposal brokered by Qatar and Egypt

2:03

that Hamas has accepted but Israel has it.

2:05

How did they even make it public when

2:08

one side hasn't really accepted it? Yeah,

2:12

the fine details

2:15

of this proposal

2:17

are still not officially released basically.

2:21

But you know, there were extensive

2:24

reports in the Arab media, especially in

2:26

the Egyptian and Saudi media. And

2:29

the Wall Street Journal had also run a story saying

2:31

that they reviewed the discussion points that

2:36

were taken up by all the sides in Cairo

2:38

and the Cairo talks. So

2:41

we have a vague idea of what

2:43

this three-phase ceasefire proposal

2:45

is from these reports. So

2:48

in the first phase, Hamas

2:51

is expected to release some

2:53

33 to 38 refugees, I

2:55

think 33. The United States was

2:57

40 but then came down to 33. And

3:02

then the Israelis would release

3:05

Palestinian prisoners many more times. I

3:07

don't have the exact number, but

3:10

it's roughly what they discussed was

3:12

four Palestinian prisoners for one hostage.

3:16

So maybe 120 plus Palestinian

3:18

prisoners. And then there would

3:20

also be a six-week

3:23

ceasefire. So

3:26

this is the initial proposal. This

3:28

is the first phase of the ceasefire

3:30

proposal. And in the second phase,

3:33

Hamas would release all the living hostages.

3:36

And the Israelis would free more Palestinian

3:38

prisoners. And the ceasefire

3:40

would be extended for another six to eight

3:42

weeks. But

3:45

then the third phase comes. I think the

3:47

major problem, major disagreements are there in the

3:49

third phase because in the third phase, Hamas

3:52

is expected to release the

3:54

bodies of all hostages

3:56

who were killed either on October 7 or

3:58

in the subsequent days. Israel

4:02

has to end. What Hamas demands is

4:04

that Israel has to agree

4:06

to a comprehensive lasting

4:08

hisfire in

4:11

the third phase, not just extension of the

4:13

hisfire for a few more weeks. Hamas also

4:16

demands Israel withdraw completely from

4:19

the Gaza Strip. As of now,

4:21

if you look at Gaza, recently

4:24

Israel sent troops to the Rafa border,

4:27

but then that is a limited number

4:29

of Israeli forces. But then

4:31

at least two Israeli brigades have been

4:34

deployed in Central and Northern Gaza. So

4:36

Northern Gaza, which encompasses

4:39

Gaza City, which was

4:41

the most populous city

4:43

in Gaza, is

4:45

now a coastland. And

4:48

Israeli troops have been deployed there. And

4:51

IDF still identifies Northern Gaza

4:53

as a war zone. So

4:55

effectively, Israel has now carved up

4:57

a no-match land between

5:00

Southern Gaza and the Israeli border.

5:02

So the entire Northern Gaza is

5:04

now controlled by the Israeli military.

5:07

So Hamas says that Israel has to withdraw

5:09

from the entire Gaza Strip. So

5:12

whether Israel actually plans to withdraw

5:14

from the Gaza Strip or Israel

5:16

is planning to use Northern Gaza

5:18

as a buffer between

5:20

the Gaza population who

5:22

are now living in,

5:24

you know, crammed into Southern Gaza and

5:27

Israel proper, which we don't know. So

5:29

I think the major disagreements are there

5:31

in the third phase. So

5:34

when Hamas says it accepted this

5:36

proposal, I think what Hamas means

5:38

is that it is ready to release 33

5:40

hostages in the first phase, it is ready

5:43

to release all the living hostages in the

5:45

second phase, and it is ready to release

5:47

the mortal remains of the hostages, but

5:50

only if there is a

5:52

comprehensive ceasefire agreement and Israel agrees

5:54

to withdraw from the whole of

5:57

Gaza Strip. But Netanyahu is not ready to

5:59

accept it. this. Right,

6:02

so anyway even if let us

6:04

say if Hamas were to agree

6:06

to release the remains of the

6:09

dead hostages and all the

6:11

living hostages, why would they

6:13

do that and give up all their

6:15

leverage if they are going to again

6:18

be back in square when have Israelis

6:20

attacks and Gaza strip again, I mean

6:22

without a comprehensive ceasefire and withdrawal, how

6:25

is there anything on the table for Hamas here? Exactly,

6:29

that is a logical question

6:32

but on the other side what the Israelis are trying

6:34

to say is that if they withdraw

6:36

from Gaza for

6:39

the release of the hostages and

6:41

if they bring the war to an end, they

6:43

are not meeting their objectives and

6:45

they had set these twin

6:47

objectives of releasing the hostages

6:49

and destroying Hamas and seven

6:52

months after the war they haven't met either of

6:54

the two and the third objective which is an

6:56

indirect objective is to bolster Israel's deterrence, they

6:58

are far from that. In fact, Israel's

7:00

deterrence, you know, we all know that

7:02

took a chattering when

7:05

the Iranians launched the attack in April. So,

7:09

but you know to release hostages,

7:11

the Israelis and the Americans, the

7:13

Egyptians and the Qataris and everybody

7:16

now knows that the only practical

7:18

way to release the hostages

7:20

is to strike a deal with Hamas and

7:23

Hamas says that we are ready to strike

7:25

that deal but only if there is a

7:28

comprehensive agreement as you know because as you

7:30

pointed out otherwise why should Hamas release all

7:32

the hostages and then be ready

7:34

to fight the Israelis again. So,

7:37

this is, I think this is the major

7:39

stumbling block to achieve the peace but

7:41

on the other side the Israelis think that if

7:43

they accept a comprehensive ceasefire, the war comes to

7:46

an end, Hamas

7:48

would remain in Gaza. So, according

7:50

to the Israeli argument which means

7:52

Hamas would live to strike us

7:54

another day and Israel doesn't want that to

7:57

happen. So, I think this is the

7:59

major disagreement between the Israeli

8:01

position. Right.

8:03

Now, I was just

8:05

wondering, given that Israel

8:07

is keen on, basically

8:09

Israel wants to ensure the destruction of the

8:12

party it is negotiating with for a ceasefire,

8:14

to put it bluntly. Now,

8:16

in that case, how serious is

8:18

it really about the ceasefire negotiations? We were saying

8:20

you have to stop, we will have a ceasefire

8:22

and then we will come back and kill you

8:24

all. So, does Netanyahu really need

8:27

the war to go on for this

8:29

political survival at home or

8:32

will Israel agreeing to a ceasefire be perceived

8:35

as some sort of quote

8:37

unquote defeat as it were

8:39

in the domestic public opinion. Like

8:41

how serious is Israel at all

8:44

in this entire negotiation? Yeah,

8:46

it is a very complicated

8:49

situation in Israel. You know,

8:51

we do not have simple answers to this

8:53

question, but you look at the different stakeholders

8:55

in Israel to understand the situation which Israel

8:57

is in. You know, at

9:00

the end of the day, this is an elected government. This

9:02

is a far-right government, but an elected government and

9:06

the pressure is building on

9:08

the government to get the hostages

9:10

released because it has

9:12

been seven months, right? The

9:14

attack itself is a major

9:16

security failure on Mr. Netanyahu's

9:18

behalf. The Prime Minister promised

9:21

security to the whole of Israel and the

9:24

worst attack in Israel's history took place on

9:26

his watch. That's a historical fact. And

9:29

then he said that we will destroy Hamas.

9:31

We will bring them home. And

9:33

Israel has been fighting Hamas

9:36

or attacking Gaza for the last seven months.

9:39

And the war, as we have seen,

9:41

has turned up international pressure on Israel. The

9:43

state is now near total isolated. There

9:46

are problems in the relationship between

9:48

the United States and Israel as well. There

9:51

is a genocide case against Israel in the

9:53

ICJ. And there could be

9:55

arrest warrants against Netanyahu and the Israeli generals,

9:57

which is a possibility in the global

9:59

economy. south there is mounting anger

10:01

against Israel. The Arab-Israel peace

10:04

process has been demolished, at least for now.

10:07

And Americans trying to revive the

10:09

Arab-Israel peace agreement, they are basically

10:11

fighting the wind. So Israel

10:13

has suffered multiple setbacks in the last

10:15

seven months, and the hostages are

10:17

still hostages. And Hamas is

10:19

far from being destroyed. And

10:21

domestically, the pressure is mounting on the Netanyahu

10:24

government to release the hostages. And the

10:26

only practical solution to get the hostages released at

10:28

this point of time is to strike a deal

10:31

with Hamas. But Hamas, again, why

10:33

should they strike a deal with the Israelis if

10:35

the Israelis are coming back to kill them? So

10:38

there is no easy path towards a

10:40

comprehensive agreement between Hamas and Israel. So

10:42

this is a very complicated situation.

10:45

And on top of it, as you

10:48

mentioned, Mr. Netanyahu's political career

10:50

is also hanging in balance. Because

10:52

if the war comes to an end, once the death

10:54

settles, there will be questions. There will

10:57

be questions about October 7 attack. There will

10:59

be questions about the way the war is

11:01

being conducted. There will be questions

11:03

about the April 14th Iranian attack. There

11:05

will be questions about how Israel responded

11:08

to the Iranian attack and why the

11:10

Israeli response was so feeble. There

11:12

will be questions about the deteriorating relationship between

11:14

Israel and the United States, which is the

11:16

biggest security guarantor

11:18

of Israel for the last

11:21

50-70 years. So Mr. Netanyahu will

11:23

have to answer a lot of questions once the

11:25

death settles. So basically, this is

11:27

also a problem. Because if you look

11:29

at it from Netanyahu's point of view,

11:31

he faced back-to-back setbacks and failures, and

11:33

his political career is also hanging in

11:36

balance now. So there is

11:38

no easy solution here. But at the

11:40

same time, Israelis, they

11:42

keep negotiating with Hamas because

11:44

they can't afford

11:46

to shut down talks in

11:48

today's political climate in Israel.

11:50

Because even members

11:53

of Mr. Netanyahu's war cabinet,

11:55

including many GANS, are

11:57

supporting an agreement. Air

12:00

Lapid, the opposition

12:02

leader, had repeatedly blasted Netanyahu

12:04

and the Jewish terrorist, he

12:07

used the word, he used the term, Jewish

12:09

terrorist attack on the Palestinians

12:12

in the settlement colonies in the West Bank. And

12:15

he said, Netanyahu is basically

12:17

destroyed Israel's deterrence. And

12:19

Air Lapid has called for early election. Ben-Yghans

12:21

has called for early election. So

12:23

there is, you know, the political situation

12:25

in Israel is also highly complicated and

12:27

Netanyahu is facing heat from all sides.

12:29

So he has to keep negotiating. But

12:32

at the same time, he is unable to

12:34

find a solution that would

12:36

address Israel's security concerns, that

12:39

would address, that would get the

12:41

hostages released, that would also protect

12:43

his political future. And

12:45

that is a magical solution that Netanyahu is not able

12:47

to find that. Right. Now,

12:49

Stanley, you referred to the deteriorating,

12:51

or maybe not deteriorating, maybe some

12:53

friction, as I say, in the

12:55

relationship between Israel and Washington, the

12:57

United States. Now, President Biden has

12:59

paused, he has not canceled, he

13:01

has paused the shipment of bombs,

13:03

I don't know, 700 kg bombs,

13:06

which are really too big and too

13:08

powerful to be used in such a

13:10

densely populated civilian space, such as

13:12

Rafa, you know, where Israel is sort of wanting

13:15

to attack and launch a major strike. So

13:18

what is the significance of this pausing

13:20

of weapons, if not by Biden? Do

13:23

you think it will have any effect

13:25

on Israel's plans for Rafa? And why

13:27

exactly is Israel so intent on

13:29

attacking such a civilian, civilian hotspot?

13:32

You know, Rafa is where so

13:34

many thousands of refugees, you know, who already

13:36

displaced from Israel, no, again, they are being

13:38

evacuated to some other place. So

13:41

why does it actually believe that by attacking

13:43

Rafa, they will flush out the last of

13:46

the Hamas hideouts and

13:48

kill every single one of Hamas soldiers? Is

13:51

it what they actually are thinking? I

14:00

don't think there is a proper

14:03

military strategy here. Israelis

14:05

being vengeful and the

14:07

civilian casualties do not prevent them,

14:09

which is a fact because 34,900

14:11

Palestinians have already been killed.

14:16

You haven't seen any regret

14:18

on the Israeli side. Israel expressed

14:21

apology only over the bombing of

14:23

the aid

14:26

workers, foreign Western aid workers because Westerners

14:29

were killed, but about the Palestinians there is

14:31

no regret. So

14:34

the civilian hotspot

14:37

of Rafah, the fact

14:39

that 1.4 million people are living in

14:41

a small city, that would

14:43

not deter Israel from attacking Rafah.

14:45

Israel doesn't care about Palestinian civilian

14:47

lives, which is a fact. But

14:51

at the same time, operational concerns are

14:53

there because Israel's argument is that

14:57

four more Hamas battalions are there

14:59

still in Rafah. And

15:01

if Israel wants to meet its objective

15:03

of destroying Hamas, it has to attack

15:06

Rafah. Because if it

15:08

doesn't attack Rafah and strikes a deal

15:10

with Hamas, that means Hamas will survive,

15:14

including Hamas top leaders, that is

15:16

Yahya Senba and Mohammad Beif and

15:18

others. The

15:21

Israelis said immediately after October 7 that there

15:23

were death men walking, but they

15:26

are still alive. So

15:28

these are the challenges Israel is also facing. So

15:31

for Israel, if it wants to achieve

15:33

victory, it has

15:35

to attack Rafah and destroy Hamas. Otherwise,

15:38

it is not winning the war. Like Hendrik

15:41

Isinger once famously said, the guerrilla

15:43

wins the war by surviving. Otherwise,

15:48

if the guerrilla survives,

15:51

it wins the war and the bigger conventional

15:53

power loses the war. So

15:55

for Israel, Israel is actually facing defeat in

15:57

this war if it doesn't go into

15:59

Rafah. Let's say they

16:02

go into Rafa and Hamas knows

16:04

that the Israeli troops are coming.

16:06

Maybe they will evacuate themselves and

16:08

move somewhere else. They may

16:11

not be waiting for them in Rafa. Is

16:13

that a possibility or is there going to be a

16:15

finale kind of a pitched battle between the

16:17

two sides and one side wins? In

16:20

the guerrilla warfare, the guerrillas are not going to be

16:22

waiting for you and being a

16:24

target man. Yeah, that's true. I

16:27

mean, we don't know what's going to happen if

16:30

Israel attacks Rafa. The only certain

16:32

thing we know is that it would be

16:34

a bloodbath. You know, WHO has

16:36

wandered, the UN has wandered, civilian

16:39

casualties will mount because we are talking

16:41

about, you know, a small

16:44

city where 1.4 million people are

16:46

living without food, without basic amenities.

16:48

And Israel is bombing this place continuously.

16:51

And if it launches a ground invasion,

16:53

the only certain thing is

16:55

that the, you know, the casualties

16:57

will mount. But for Hamas, also Hamas

16:59

leadership, their options to evacuate themselves

17:02

is also limited at this point of

17:04

time because as we discussed earlier, Central

17:06

and Northern Gaza are

17:09

already, Central and Northern parts of Gaza

17:11

are already controlled by the Israeli military.

17:14

And now after taking over the Rafa

17:16

crossing, the Gaza side of the Rafa

17:18

crossing to Egypt, basically Israel is

17:20

now controlling all the entry and exit points

17:22

of Gaza. So, Hamas

17:25

leadership, I mean, theoretically speaking,

17:27

Yahya Senwar and

17:29

Mohammad Beif cannot escape Gaza. So,

17:32

that's what Israel wants. Israel wants to take over.

17:34

Israel has already taken over all the entry and

17:36

exit points and Israel has

17:38

pushed Hamas to one corner and

17:40

now Israel wants to attack

17:42

that corner. But the other side,

17:44

the flip side is that 1.4 million

17:47

people are also living in this place because Israel,

17:49

even in the north, the

17:51

operation Israel carried out is, you know, it's

17:53

a cost earth operation. It's not a targeted

17:55

attack on Hamas. It is a

17:57

collective punishment as Mr. Biden himself said.

18:00

It's not my words. President Biden called

18:02

it a connective punishment. He called it

18:04

an indiscriminate bombing, indiscriminate attack. So

18:06

this is Israel's way of attacking

18:08

northern Gaza, and it will be

18:10

the same in the south. So,

18:13

you know, this is from the Israeli

18:15

point of view, they want to finish off

18:17

the war, at least that's what they hope. And

18:20

to do that, to meet the objective, they need to

18:22

attack Rafa, and they

18:24

don't care about the humanitarian

18:26

cost. And they think that

18:29

they can get away with, because even if there is

18:32

friction between the United States and

18:34

Israel, the US might post. I

18:37

think that is a major decision

18:39

by the Biden administration. If you look

18:41

at Biden's policies from October 7, this

18:45

is the

18:47

boldest position President Biden has taken. Because

18:50

I think he started realizing

18:52

that this is going out of his

18:54

hands, Netanyahu is playing

18:56

him, and

18:58

the pressure is also mounting internally, so

19:00

he can't let this go on forever.

19:02

So he has taken this public position

19:05

that he is not sending offensive weapons

19:07

if Israel goes into Rafa. This also

19:09

suggests that the American assessment of a

19:11

Rafa attack is grim,

19:15

pretty grim. Right. So

19:18

you're saying that

19:21

Biden's decision to pause the shipment of weapons

19:23

in bombs could have

19:25

a deterring effect, or Netanyahu was

19:27

too hell-bent on going ahead with

19:30

his plans, regardless of whether the US supplies offensive weapons

19:32

or not. Do they need these weapons at all in

19:34

the first place? Don't they already have enough

19:36

in the bank, so we speak, to get this

19:38

Rafa part of their military

19:41

plans over with? Yeah.

19:44

So I don't know

19:46

what Mr. Netanyahu will eventually decide, because

19:49

if he doesn't attack Rafa and strikes

19:52

a deal with Hamas, there

19:55

is a possibility that Ben

19:57

Guevara and Smatovah are will

20:00

pull back from his government so that his government

20:02

could collapse. So Benny

20:04

Genshan's earlampage could come and

20:06

offer political support to the Netanyahu government

20:08

in the kenneth set. But

20:11

even in that case, Netanyahu will be at

20:13

the mercy of his political rivals. So

20:16

Netanyahu's political future would be actually

20:18

at risk here if he doesn't

20:20

attack Rafa. But at

20:22

the same time, I think Biden's pressure

20:25

tactics is having some impact on Israel's

20:27

overall military calculus because Israel

20:29

has been talking about Rafa for quite some time.

20:32

But they still haven't launched a full-scale attack

20:34

on Rafa. So if the

20:37

US is not exerting pressure, I think they

20:39

would have done it much, much earlier. So

20:41

they are, you know, it is,

20:44

both sides are trying to use the cards

20:46

they have because yes,

20:49

Israel may not have, may not need

20:51

immediate weapons supplies from the Americans. But

20:54

at the same time, this is a signal

20:56

that the Americans are sending to the Israelis.

20:59

So the signal is that it could

21:01

affect, it can have some effect on

21:04

Israel's, you know, long-term

21:06

relationship with the United States if an

21:09

Israeli prime minister goes ahead

21:12

against the wishes of an American president

21:14

and he expressed his threat line publicly,

21:17

not secretly, you know, not through diplomatic

21:19

channels. The fact that Biden said this

21:21

to the CNN that suggests

21:23

that Biden wants the world to know what

21:26

his position is. So

21:28

if Netanyahu is going against his will,

21:30

this could create serious friction in the

21:32

relationship. So I think this

21:34

has symbolic value. This may

21:36

have effect on the long-term relationship.

21:40

But at the same time, you can

21:42

also see that Israel may not need

21:44

offensive weapons immediately to attack Rafa. Rafa

21:46

is anyway, there are four Hamas battalions

21:49

and Israel can carry out that act.

21:51

Israel doesn't face any major conventional military

21:53

threat from Rafa, right? But

21:56

if, you know, on April 14th, when Israel was in the United

21:58

States, it was a very, very difficult time to get the Iran launched

22:00

330 drones missiles, cruise

22:02

missiles, and ballistic missiles. All

22:06

those ballistic missiles and cruise missiles were shot

22:08

down by the Americans, the French, and

22:11

the Jordanians along with Israelis, not just

22:13

Israel alone. Right? Netanyahu today says Israel

22:15

has the strength to stand alone on

22:17

its own, but that's not factual. Israel

22:20

needs the support of the United States and its allies,

22:23

especially when it comes to its conflict with Iran. Right?

22:26

So it is in general for

22:28

Netanyahu to say that Israel can stand

22:30

on its own a few weeks after

22:32

the Americans, the French, the Jordanians, and

22:35

the British shot down most of the Iranian

22:37

projectiles. So Israel

22:39

needs the United States. It's

22:42

as simple as that. Right.

22:44

Israel needs the United States and the

22:47

United States has sort of taken a

22:50

little bit of

22:52

a shift in terms of its unconditional support,

22:54

so to speak. And especially with

22:56

regard to offensive operations. One last question,

22:58

Stanley, on this before I let you

23:01

go. So there have been a lot

23:03

of student protests around the world, especially

23:05

the ones in American campuses, in Ivy

23:07

League university campuses have been making the

23:09

headlines and they have been a

23:12

repressive action against them from law

23:14

enforcement in different Western

23:17

capitals, UK, US. And

23:19

do you think this, all these protests from

23:21

the students is beginning to have an effect

23:24

on the Western support for Israel, either

23:26

at the public level or at the

23:28

governmental level, because there does seem to

23:30

be a lot of people making connections

23:32

with the anti-Vietnam war protests as

23:35

well. So do you think these protests have

23:37

had any role to play in the shift

23:39

of the Biden administration, so to speak,

23:42

or was it coming anyway? I

23:45

think it was possible that the protest had an

23:47

impact. Biden says he didn't change his policy because

23:49

of the protest. But the fact

23:51

is that he actually took this

23:54

position, his boldest position, till

23:56

now after the protest erupted.

24:00

The United States has taken a very different

24:02

approach towards the protest. They used to force

24:04

to remove the protesters. They used

24:06

to force to destroy the encampments. And

24:10

the US media and the US government are trying

24:12

to give a new twist, trying

24:14

to build a new narrative that the protest is

24:16

all about anti-Semitism. All

24:18

those efforts are there. But at

24:20

the same time, Biden, I think, also

24:22

feels the heat. This

24:24

doesn't mean that there will be a major

24:27

paradigm shift in the West's relationship with

24:30

Israel. No, I don't expect that to happen.

24:32

But there could be short-term policy

24:34

changes. There could be some major

24:37

pressure impact on the policy decisions

24:39

of the West. Of

24:41

the United States, basically, because Europe

24:44

doesn't really come into the

24:46

picture, no? They issue statements. Otherwise, here,

24:48

at least when it comes to Israel,

24:50

I think the United States is the

24:53

most important, most significant voice.

24:57

And the protests, I think, are having some kind of impact, because this

24:59

is also an election year. And

25:02

Biden's core voters have started questioning the

25:04

United States' unconditional support for Israel and

25:06

the cash royalties. Because the situation in

25:08

Gaza is quite terrible. You haven't seen

25:10

this kind of destruction in the 21st

25:13

century, right? 34,000

25:15

people have been killed. The entire population of

25:17

Gaza has been displaced. 77,000

25:19

people have been wounded. And

25:22

most of the displaced people are living

25:24

in Rafah. And Rafah is now being

25:26

born. There are not enough hospitals in

25:28

Gaza. And the United Nations

25:31

says there is a full-blown, within

25:33

quotes, full-blown famine in northern Gaza.

25:35

So this is terrible. This

25:37

humanitarian crisis is terrible. And the West is

25:40

known for its human rights values

25:42

preaching, etc., etc., right? So at the

25:44

end of the day, there would be questions, what the United

25:46

States did, what the UK did, when

25:48

this calamity was being unfolded before

25:51

the whole world. So I

25:53

think this is what is building pressure on

25:55

the streets. And that pressure is having some

25:58

impact on, at least on the short-term. policy

26:00

decisions of the government. Right.

26:03

Thank you for that Stanley. As

26:05

you rightly said, the West likes

26:07

to preach about human rights and

26:09

humanitarian support, etc. But when

26:11

it comes to Gaza

26:13

and Israel, I think the

26:16

entire liberal or

26:18

moral authority of the West seems

26:20

to have become completely hollow, except

26:23

of course the silver lining being

26:25

the student protests in various

26:27

western capitals. But in Gaza, I mean, this

26:29

is not going to really make much of

26:31

a difference. A near famine or

26:33

a full blown famine situation as you rightly pointed

26:36

out. And with Israel now

26:38

still not ready to back off

26:40

from a Rafah operation, I think

26:42

the coming weeks are

26:44

going to be again a very grim

26:47

from the civilian point of view. We'll have

26:49

to wait and watch how things pan out.

26:51

Thank you so much Stanley once again for

26:53

your observations and insights on this

26:55

ongoing conflict. Thank you so much. Thank you.

27:26

Thank you.

Rate

Join Podchaser to...

  • Rate podcasts and episodes
  • Follow podcasts and creators
  • Create podcast and episode lists
  • & much more

Episode Tags

Do you host or manage this podcast?
Claim and edit this page to your liking.
,

Unlock more with Podchaser Pro

  • Audience Insights
  • Contact Information
  • Demographics
  • Charts
  • Sponsor History
  • and More!
Pro Features