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This podcast is brought to you

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by AJ Products, made in Sweden

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for the rest of the world.

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Visit AJProducts.ie to see how we

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can make your workplace work for

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you. When

0:14

ISIS attacked a concert hall in

0:16

Moscow last weekend, it left at

0:19

least 137 people dead, hundreds

0:22

more injured, and the world

0:24

wondering why it happened and

0:26

what, if anything, does it have to do

0:29

with the war in Ukraine? The information

0:31

space is being dominated by claims

0:33

of Ukrainian involvement, claims

0:35

Kiev denies. On

0:38

today's podcast, terrorism expert Colin P.

0:40

Clarke explains that while we in

0:42

Europe may have thought ISIS

0:44

was a thing of the past, in

0:47

reality, the jihadist terrorists

0:49

have not gone away. We

0:51

look at this globally. This is a group that,

0:54

while it's been defeated in some parts of the

0:56

West, it certainly surged in

0:58

other parts of the world. This

1:01

is in the news from the Irish Times. I'm Bernice Harrison. Today,

1:05

terror in Moscow. Is ISIS

1:07

back? And what does the attack mean for

1:09

the war in Ukraine? Colin

1:15

P. Clarke is a senior research fellow

1:17

at the Sufan Centre and is the

1:19

author of After the Caliphate,

1:21

The Islamic State and the Future Terrorist

1:23

Diaspora. Colin,

1:25

you watched the video of the

1:28

attack. Can you describe how

1:30

it unfolded and whether

1:32

the attackers followed a typical

1:35

ISIS playbook? Yeah, so in

1:37

some ways they did, right? Even

1:39

down to target selection. This was a soft

1:41

target that was likely to generate, you know,

1:43

a lot of media attention. I

1:47

would call this a spectacular attack in

1:49

that there was multiple attackers. You

1:52

know, these weren't the best trained militants in the

1:54

world, but there was some element of training there.

2:00

You know, the body count speaks for

2:02

itself. The

2:04

fact that they burned the building, right, that image of

2:07

this kind of burning concert hall is

2:09

now, you know, on every cover

2:11

of every newspaper around the world. So they're

2:13

doing, you know, what they intended to do,

2:16

which is, look, let's not forget at the

2:18

end of the day, a big component of

2:20

terrorism is psychological, right? And so they want

2:22

to leave that imprint in the minds of

2:25

people and scare people. They do want to,

2:28

as the word suggests, terrorize. You

2:30

know, I've had some people ask me, well, could

2:32

it really be an ISIS attack if they didn't

2:34

have suicide vests, if they didn't blow themselves up?

2:37

Not every ISIS attack is a suicide attack. These

2:39

are individuals who may have been planning to do a

2:42

follow up attack. There could

2:44

be reasons why they didn't have suicide vests.

2:46

For example, they might not have sought out

2:48

those type of explosives so as to stay

2:50

under the radar. They might have perceived that

2:52

as vulnerable, right, that that could have tipped

2:55

off the security forces to their plot. So,

2:58

again, the difficulty here is

3:00

that it happened in Russia. And so we're

3:02

never going to get the true story from

3:04

the Russian government. And that's especially true because,

3:07

as has been made public, the

3:09

United States warned the Russians about this attack

3:12

and they whiffed on it. So there's a

3:14

level of embarrassment from the Russian government and

3:16

they should be embarrassed for

3:18

being unable to keep their citizens safe.

3:20

They're off waging wars in other countries

3:23

when they should be focused on internal

3:25

security. Meanwhile, you know, they're persecuting Alexei

3:27

Navalny supporters and people that, you know,

3:31

said bad things about Vladimir Putin

3:33

during the recent sham election. So

3:36

the Russians have a lot of their own issues. If

3:38

ISIS continues to target Russia, which I

3:41

think they will, the Russians

3:43

certainly have their hands full. Russia has

3:45

accepted, I mean, albeit reluctantly,

3:48

the culpability of ISIS

3:51

in the Moscow attack. But

3:54

in the aftermath of the attack, Putin Cast

3:56

some doubt on the involvement of ISIS. He

3:58

Essentially said, Why would I

4:01

says attacker save no reason

4:03

to perhaps alluding to. Russian

4:05

support for ceasefire in Gaza.

4:08

Can. You explain why Russia seen as

4:10

a tardis by Isis. Or yeah,

4:12

bug Vladimir Putins killed a lot

4:15

of muslims. It's it's that simple

4:17

are you know? Is it because

4:19

it may be destined to his

4:21

memory? but one need to look

4:23

no further than Syria for an

4:25

example of that. Moreover, if you

4:27

look at Isis is hitlist. The

4:30

one group the hate more than the Americans,

4:32

the Israelis, and others is sheer. And.

4:34

Vladimir Putin is looked at as the

4:36

vanguard of defending see Islam. He propped

4:39

up Bhatia Loss on Syria. He works

4:41

hand in glove with the Iranians, the

4:43

Wagner group, the Russian mercenary groups operated

4:45

side by side with is Bola so

4:47

you know there's a long list with

4:50

go back to Chechnya and the jihad

4:52

is of a long memory Bhavan talk

4:54

about you know so be involved in

4:56

Afghanistan from Nights and Seventy Nine to

4:58

Nineteen Eighty Nine. So of course put

5:01

and denied it and around the same

5:03

thing in the aftermath. Of the com

5:05

on bombing Ah at Qassem Suleimani shrine

5:07

in early January, they blame the Israelis.

5:09

They openly had to walk that back

5:11

and admit that it was the hottest

5:13

terrorists. so he of these regimes should

5:15

focus more on protecting their own people

5:17

than trying to blame Ah In of

5:19

the Bogeyman for their own shortcomings. The.

5:22

Moscow attack was carried out

5:25

by an Isis splinter. Group

5:27

called Isis Pay for why

5:30

they. Will. Be a small state

5:32

course on a I wouldn't necessarily call

5:34

them a splinter group, they're more of

5:36

a province under this broader mobile network

5:38

of Islamic State affiliates. A splinter group

5:40

would mean that they kind of broke

5:43

off and are doing their own thing.

5:45

here. the says you know a group

5:47

that works hand in glove ah with

5:49

the other affiliates as as again part

5:51

of a kind of global network. They're

5:53

based in Afghanistan but have a lot

5:55

of Central Asian militants, particularly in the

5:57

group's leadership. Ah and I'd say you

6:00

know I have a the comparison between

6:02

in an Isis, K, Or or the

6:04

group I like to call Smokes a

6:06

course on Provinces K P N L

6:08

cardin, the Radiant Peninsula, Ah, Indo the

6:10

mid to late twenty tense when that

6:12

group kind of eclipsed Al Qaeda core

6:14

is the most operationally capable of all

6:17

the kind of franchise groups. Force.

6:19

Does Isis K. want?

6:22

At the end of the day,

6:24

Isis K wants would every Isis

6:27

province once in, which is what

6:29

the core organization once wishes to

6:31

establish a callous right. That's what

6:33

they were building in Rocker and

6:35

most all during their state building

6:37

project which began in earnest. And

6:39

twenty fourteen, you pick our fate.

6:42

Five years ago. Actually, this months

6:44

last, it's last piece of physical

6:46

territory around the Goose Syria we

6:48

still got. You know, Tens

6:51

of thousands of. Isis

6:53

members. I say that

6:55

broadly. That that

6:57

means Isis fighters who are in

6:59

detention camps and and their families

7:01

women and children who are and

7:03

kind of refugee camps in northeastern

7:05

Syria places like Our Whole Arm

7:08

which which are really in deplorable

7:10

conditions. So in many ways you

7:12

know. While. The core has

7:14

been attenuated. Other Isis affiliates

7:16

elsewhere in the world ah

7:18

are on the March, and

7:20

so it's an extremely complex

7:22

organization. These groups ebb and

7:24

flow over time of groups

7:26

in Libya. Yemen.

7:29

Somalia and Southeast Asia right now

7:31

are probably at a low point,

7:33

but but you know geopolitical factors

7:35

and and different conditions can lead

7:37

those things to change. Dragged.

7:40

Into court Blooded and bout said

7:42

and Russia accuses of carrying out

7:44

the terrorist attack on Friday on

7:46

the outskirts of Moscow. Meeting one

7:48

hundred and thirty seven dead. All.

7:51

Of them showed signs of having been beaten.

7:54

One of them. Some the men

7:56

who carried out the attacks for

7:58

Us, whom have been detained and

8:01

apparently tortured in Russia are believed

8:03

to be from touch you could

8:05

stab. That's the Central Asian countries

8:08

that was part of the Soviet

8:10

Union. It's population is over ninety

8:12

percent Muslim. Many. Cheeks

8:15

lives. In Moscow where

8:17

they. Are reportedly trees is

8:19

really poorly and experienced racism.

8:22

Should this terror attacks be

8:24

seen in supplies. You're. Right

8:26

about the the radicalizing factors of many

8:29

tottered migrants com and Russia have a

8:31

key is going to be finding out

8:33

you know where these individuals who live

8:35

there were merely inspired by the Islamic

8:37

state, where where they actually trained. Was

8:40

this a kind of are directed attack

8:42

and and my money would be on

8:44

the ladder just because the level of

8:46

training or seems to be there if

8:49

you watch the video of how the

8:51

attack and folded oh no you know

8:53

certainly be made some mistakes and there's

8:55

plenty to point. Out there are. but if

8:57

you look at the body count and the

8:59

fact that they were to keep this attack.

9:02

Under the noses of the Russian security

9:04

services, it points to some kind of

9:06

operational security or upset or not something

9:08

that would come with with training from

9:10

a terrorist group like Isis. Care. Now.

9:13

After the U S. withdrew from

9:15

Afghanistan, In Twenty Twenty One and

9:17

the Taliban. To control

9:19

Us President Joe Biden. He

9:21

said that Afghanistan would never

9:23

again become a terrorist safe

9:26

havens. But. That's not what happened.

9:28

Know and at the time well

9:30

many counter terrorism experts myself included

9:32

said as much as you know

9:34

this was part of be it

9:37

was a byproduct of the dough

9:39

hard of to in the Us

9:41

and tell them what shall point

9:43

out was carried through across republican

9:45

and democratic administrations. One of the

9:47

few areas of bipartisan agreement was

9:49

withdrawn the Us from Afghanistan and

9:51

as part of the Do, our

9:53

deal with Taliban was supposed to

9:56

prevent the country from ever becoming

9:58

a launching. Pad for internet. Terrorism.

10:00

Others you ask us that there's the

10:02

intent or the will and there's the

10:04

capability. I think the Taliban in of

10:07

certainly as an adversary by S. K

10:09

Ah is is attempting to counter the

10:11

group. They just don't have the capability

10:13

right in that so they can't govern

10:15

the entire country. Look, the Us military

10:18

was in the country for twenty something

10:20

years and one was unable to defeat

10:22

are some of the terrorist group space

10:24

their So how could we expect the

10:27

tell them to do that with sorrow,

10:29

manpower, fewer tools. I'm. The you know

10:31

it's just not something that's going to

10:33

happen. So it again, as predicted by

10:36

by most people watching this closely, the

10:38

country is once again devolved into a

10:40

safe haven in a sanctuary or transnational

10:42

javascript. So. Act

10:45

is has. Isis. K

10:47

been before. The. Moscow

10:49

attack. You know that the wider world is hearing

10:51

a lot about Isis case. as it is

10:53

in the last week but selective has

10:55

it been and flair has. Been active

10:58

so just this year alone and

11:00

twenty twenty four. The.

11:02

Islamic State Course on his last attacks

11:04

in Iran. And Turkey.

11:07

And has had several plots disrupted in

11:10

Europe in Western Europe, in Germany, a

11:12

plot targeting Sweden or just the other

11:14

day for the first time that I've

11:16

heard publicly French President Emmanuel that chrome

11:19

or claim that Isis K have been

11:21

plotting on French soil and we know

11:23

that the front of the Paris Twenty

11:25

Twenty Four Summer Olympics coming up or

11:28

and that even going back to oh

11:30

you know. The. Past couple of

11:32

years there's been numerous Isis K floss.

11:34

We learned that from the Discord leaks.

11:36

Ah, there was even a plot target

11:38

in the World Cup. So many of

11:41

these have been disrupted. But it does

11:43

show you that this is a group.

11:45

It's persistence that their operational tempo is

11:47

increasing in frequency on the Moscow attack

11:49

shows just how dangerous that Us. Before.

11:52

We started chatting. I was thinking about twenty

11:54

seventeen that it in in the Uk alone.

11:56

There was. The Westminster Attack The

11:58

Manchester Arena Bombing. The London Bridge

12:01

Attack and other see it in

12:03

that you're them or events in

12:05

in Belgium and Germany and Russia,

12:07

Spain but. I. Think.

12:09

Most. People would feel that it's

12:12

been my sleep. Why us since

12:14

then The and you know it

12:16

says free from the dread of

12:19

a nice this attack. Is

12:21

that set to change? Well. I'd

12:23

say that your description is is

12:25

accurate. If you're living in Western

12:27

Europe, As you're living in

12:29

anywhere in Africa, that's probably not true.

12:31

So while the attacks in Africa don't

12:34

get the same media coverage as they

12:36

would in Paris, oh yeah, oh, the

12:38

Islamic State's continued to kill large numbers

12:40

of of civilian. so oh, I think

12:42

that you know that that's one thing

12:44

to keep in mind is you know

12:46

our I remember that. That. They

12:49

would I would call the apex of

12:51

Islamic state quite well. in. you're right,

12:53

It seems like almost every week there

12:55

was something else happening because we when

12:57

we had the rash of vehicle attacks

12:59

on nice Berlin, Stockholm elsewhere. And

13:02

you just as there was a stabbing

13:04

and a policeman was stabbed in France

13:06

I would be asked to come on

13:08

Cnn and talk about it but at

13:10

the same time of Boko Haram blew

13:12

up a market and killed you know

13:15

eighty people in Nigeria. It was

13:17

on pace a seventeen of the New York

13:19

Times. So I think you know we have

13:21

to be careful that the way we talk

13:23

about terrorism because again we look at this

13:25

globally. This is a group that in wow,

13:28

it's been defeated in some parts of the

13:30

west. Ah, it's certainly searched and in other

13:32

parts of the world. Now you've seen before

13:34

that Isis K. It's not a splinter group,

13:36

it's and a silly. Of

13:39

Isis. But. i suppose you

13:41

know what does that mean is it

13:43

a large group what we know of

13:46

as it's size and strength yeah so

13:48

it's it's definitely the most potent and

13:50

the most aggressive of all the i

13:52

s affiliates there's also a number of

13:55

groups in sub saharan africa on groups

13:57

like the islamic state west africa province

13:59

or Islamic State, Sahel Province.

14:02

And so they control large

14:05

portions of territory, all

14:07

the way from kind of littoral West

14:09

Africa over to the Lake Chad Basin.

14:11

But ISIS-K in Afghanistan is believed to

14:13

be several

14:16

thousand fighters. And

14:18

again, kind of pulled from throughout

14:20

Afghanistan, but also the broader region,

14:23

including fighters from Pakistan.

14:25

And again, this is a group that's really

14:27

kind of spread its networks, spread its tentacles

14:31

outside of the country. And now with

14:33

this increasing operational tempo of

14:36

plots and now attacks, there's

14:39

major concern. We saw France and Italy

14:41

both raising their terror threat alert level

14:43

this week, and other countries may soon

14:45

do the same. The biggest

14:48

global event this year

14:50

will be the Paris

14:52

Olympics. After Moscow, is

14:56

there a real fear that it could

14:58

become a target? I think it was

15:00

a target even before Moscow, but that

15:02

just kind of further highlights

15:04

the sense of urgency there. And

15:07

I think, you know, the French had their hands full.

15:10

France has been a country that's been targeted,

15:12

you know, probably more than most others in

15:14

the West over time. A large number of

15:19

leading jihadis are French.

15:23

And there's individuals that are now coming out of

15:25

prison, right, that have served time for terrorist

15:27

attacks. And that stretches the bandwidth of

15:29

the security services who now have to

15:31

kind of monitor them. I'm very concerned

15:33

about some kind of plot on

15:36

the Paris Olympics. I do have

15:39

confidence in the French security forces. I think, you know,

15:41

they're among the best in the world and they're going

15:43

to be prepared. But this is a

15:45

cat and mouse game. And, you

15:48

know, there certainly will be no

15:50

shortage of attention kind of watching how things

15:52

go. And, you know, I can only hope

15:54

and pray that things go smoothly. Vladimir

16:02

Putin suggested that the

16:04

attackers were being aided

16:06

by Ukraine. Is

16:09

there any evidence at all

16:11

of cooperation between ISIS and

16:14

Ukraine? In a word, no. Coming

16:19

up. Ukraine is

16:21

dragged into the terrorist atrocity. But

16:23

will it impact the war? I talked

16:25

to reporter Dan McLaughlin after this short break.

16:30

This podcast is brought to you

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by AJ Products, creating a more

16:34

friction-free office, made in Sweden for

16:36

the rest of the world. Visit

16:39

AJProducts.ie to see how we can

16:41

make your workplace work for you.

16:45

Dan McLaughlin reports from Ukraine for the Irish

16:47

Times. Dan, before

16:49

the attack, the US warned

16:52

its citizens in Moscow that the risk

16:54

of such an attack was high. Putin

16:57

denied this, and he said

16:59

it was Western propaganda. So he was

17:01

wrong. Then after

17:04

the attack, he gave a speech where

17:06

he didn't mention ISIS by name, even

17:08

though his government accepts

17:11

ISIS were behind the atrocity.

17:14

But in that speech, he did say that Ukraine

17:17

was helping the attackers. Why

17:20

did Putin do that? How

17:22

has Ukraine responded to those

17:24

allegations? Well, there was

17:26

an immediate fear here in Ukraine as soon

17:28

as people saw this happening, unfolding in Moscow

17:31

last Friday night, that in some way Putin

17:33

would blame Ukraine for this. Because

17:35

the whole narrative of Putin's regime

17:37

over the last two years and for

17:39

longer has been that this existential threat,

17:41

as Putin puts it, is being posed

17:43

to Russia by Ukraine and by its

17:45

Western backers. So there was an immediate

17:47

fear that somehow he would try and

17:49

pin this on Ukraine. And

17:53

so it turned out, even though he's presented

17:55

absolutely no evidence for this, he

17:57

came out of

18:00

the attack and said that these attackers

18:02

were making for Ukraine. He

18:04

claimed that, as he put

18:06

it, a window had been opened for them

18:08

on the border for them to cross into

18:11

Ukraine and get away. So the suggestion being

18:13

that there were accomplices in Ukraine waiting to

18:15

bring them across the border. Other

18:17

Russian officials have since come out and said, claimed

18:20

things like they were going to be welcomed in

18:22

Ukraine, they were going to be welcomed as heroes,

18:25

that this is

18:27

all part of this grand

18:29

western plot, as

18:31

the Russian regime puts it, to undermine

18:34

and ultimately destroy Russia. In fact,

18:36

we heard from Maria Zakharova, she's

18:38

the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman today,

18:41

and again, she was pushing this line

18:43

and she didn't present any evidence. All

18:45

she did say was that the very

18:47

fact that America came out quickly and

18:49

said that Ukraine was not involved, that

18:51

in itself is evidence of Ukraine's involvement.

18:54

So there you can see how Russia

18:56

is kind of scratching around as it

18:58

seems now for anything that can truly

19:00

pin this attack on Ukraine and

19:02

its western allies. And how has

19:04

Ukraine responded to the allegations? Well

19:07

President Zelensky came out and I

19:11

think it's fair to say he seemed disgusted as

19:13

he made this address

19:15

to the nation. Instead

19:18

of dealing with his Russian citizens and

19:20

addressing them, Putin was silent for

19:22

the whole day thinking about how to

19:24

link the attack to Ukraine. It's

19:27

completely predictable. He called

19:29

Putin a

19:31

sick person, a cynical person, for

19:34

instead of dealing with this security

19:36

issue properly, instead of addressing

19:38

his own people in Russia quickly and reassuring

19:40

them and telling them that they were going

19:42

to get to the bottom of this plot

19:44

and this horrific attack that took place, he

19:47

looked for a way to blame it on

19:49

Ukraine. I can't say that people here

19:51

are surprised by it. There's kind of a weary

19:55

acceptance that Russia would try to use this

19:57

in some way against Ukraine and that's how it's

19:59

playing out. out at the moment. Nearly a

20:01

week on, presumably this is a

20:03

massive subject in Russian media. What's

20:07

been said and how

20:09

is the narrative around the

20:11

attack developing? We haven't seen any

20:13

major changes in this

20:16

narrative so far. As we

20:18

mentioned, Putin came out quickly and said

20:22

without offering any evidence that this

20:24

window was opened for the attackers

20:26

to escape into Ukraine. It's

20:29

been undermined in various ways though. I mean

20:31

just yesterday, for example, President

20:33

Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, he's

20:35

probably Putin's closest ally, certainly in

20:38

Europe. He came out and said,

20:41

somewhat boastfully, I think, because he's very

20:43

proud of his own security forces, he

20:46

said that these attackers were actually heading

20:48

for Belarus to try and

20:50

get across the border. And it's only

20:52

when they saw that the security was

20:54

so tight in Belarus that they turned

20:56

towards Ukraine. So immediately that kind of

20:58

undermines Putin's argument that Putin's claim that

21:00

this was already pre-arranged, that there were

21:02

accomplices waiting in Ukraine to smuggle these

21:04

attackers across the border. And we're still

21:06

waiting to see what

21:09

security services and what the authorities

21:11

in Russia can put up in terms of

21:13

evidence. Of course, there's a fear that at some

21:15

point they will take one

21:17

of the 11 people that they say they've arrested,

21:19

including the four gunmen that they say they've arrested

21:22

and film

21:24

some kind of confession, which

21:27

supposedly links Ukraine to this. We've seen

21:29

these four people brought up in

21:31

court accused of carrying

21:34

out the attack on the concert

21:37

hall outside Moscow, and they look like they've

21:39

been very badly beaten. One of

21:42

them had bruises all over his face, another

21:44

one appeared to be unconscious in the courtroom,

21:47

another one was actually filmed having his ear cut off

21:49

by the people who detained him, and it

21:52

was forced into his mouth. So it looks

21:54

like there are clear signs of beatings and

21:56

maybe torture here, we could say. not

22:00

beyond the realms of possibility that there

22:02

could be a forced confession coming up

22:04

which will be televised and which will

22:07

supposedly link the attackers to Ukraine.

22:09

Can any of that really be

22:11

believed when such

22:14

confession would be given under these circumstances? I

22:16

don't think so. Dan, you're

22:18

in Ukraine. Are there

22:20

fears there that the

22:23

Moscow atrocity could ultimately

22:25

be used as a pretext

22:27

for an intensified war? They

22:30

don't really think that he even needs a

22:32

pretext to escalate. So

22:34

they're just expecting more. Putin

22:37

may well use this and

22:39

try to tie Ukraine and

22:41

its Western allies up into some kind

22:43

of conspiracy theory about them being supporters

22:46

of global terrorism. We're already hearing that

22:48

from quite senior officials in the Russian

22:50

administration but Ukrainians really just expect more

22:52

of the same whatever the rhetoric is

22:55

coming from the Kremlin. Thanks

22:57

very much Dan. That's

23:03

it for today. For

23:05

more international coverage subscribe

23:07

at irishtimes.com/subscribe. I'm

23:09

Bernice Harrison. This episode was produced

23:12

by Declan Conlon. In the news we'll

23:14

be back tomorrow.